September 11 Weather Was Eerily Similar To 25 Years Ago; Coolest Morning This Fall, Heavy Rain To Miss Vermont

On September 11, 2001 Hurricane Erin was moving northward
 500 miles off the East Coast. Had a cold front arrived a 
day later, the hurricane might have hit the East Coast.
And if it did, would it have prevented the terrorist 
attack?  We can only guess. 

The weather on Saturday, September 11, 2026 was eerily similar to that of that tragic day 25 years ago. 

It was gorgeous, sunny, a bit breezy with some of the first hints of autumn coolness in the air. 

I don't mean to trivialize that horrible day a quarter century ago, and please don't take it that way. But although the weather yesterday was almost exactly the same  as September 11, 2001, the weather set up was very different than it was 25 years ago. 

And the weather situation that terrible day brings up some big what ifs.

Let me explain: 

On September 10, 2001 a cold front swept through the northeastern United States. It caused some heavy thunderstorms in New York City.  Artist Monika Bravo took photos of the dramatic skies through windows on the 92nd floor.  These were just about the last photos of a view from inside the iconic twin towers.

That cold front helped shove Hurricane Erin away from the East Coast. It was about 500 miles offshore during the September 11 attacks.  Hurricanes moving northward off the East Coast feature sinking air outside the western flank of the storms. Sinking air causes clear skies. Which is the main reason why New York City had such clear skies that September day. 

It all makes you wonder what would have happened if that cold front came a day later.  If the cold front was late, Hurricane Erin might have gone up the East Coast instead. A New York City hurricane would have been bad, but not nearly as bad as the terrorist attack.  

Would the hurricane have postponed the attack?  Long enough for law enforcement to get wind of the plot and stop it?  We'll never know. 

TODAY

The clear skies here in Vermont and in New York City yesterday had nothing to do with hurricanes. It was just a cool, clear high pressure system moving into the Northeast. 

That brisk high pressure system brought Vermont the coolest air of the season so far. It got down to at least 47 degrees in Burlington early today, ending a 98-day streak with temperatures continuously above 50 degrees. I haven't done a complete review, but it appears to be the second longest such streak on record. The only longer streak I could immediately find was 106 days in 2023

Elsewhere in Vermont, most places had low temperatures this morning in the low 40s. Lyndonville was down to 38 degrees. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, got down to 31 degrees. That makes me think that the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom might have had a light frost. Tis the season.

The cold high pressure is moving off to the east now. That'll set up some south winds. Combined with sunshine, that should boost this afternoon's temperatures well into the 70s. Another gorgeous September day.

SUNDAY

Vermont still needs a nice, soaking rain. And it's going to rain Sunday into Monday. But most of us won't have a soaker. 

A small, wet storm is prompting flood alerts in the Mid-Atlantic states today. That wet system will dump heavy rain around New York City and southern New England tonight and early Sunday. The three southern New England states look like they'll get at least an inch or two of rain. 

This will brush far southern Vermont. Places like Bennington and Brattleboro could get at least a half inch of rain out of this. That early morning rain could reach as far as the Canadian border, but up there, it will hardly amount to anything at all. Maybe a tenth of an inch of rain if they're lucky. 

Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching from the west with its own batch of showers and thunderstorms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms. 

Those storms depend on whether skies manage to partly clear in the late morning and afternoon. If it does clear up, a few storms could get a bit strong. If it stays cloudy, it'll just be showers with maybe a rumble of thunder.

Whatever happens, it'll be pretty warm, with highs well into the 70s to near 80s. The showers will continue into Sunday evening. 

Though rainfall will be variable, with maybe a few spots getting a good soaking. But most of us should receive less than a half inch of rain. Many of us should only see a quarter inch of rain.  It's still not too late for the forecast to change, so we'll see.

MONDAY

Another big, brisk high pressure system, almost a carbon copy of Saturdays, will blow in on Monday.  It'll be a sunny, cool, breezy day.  It'll stay  under 70 degrees everywhere except maybe the lower Connecticut River valley. 

TUESDAY

It'll start quite cool, even a little cooler than it was this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if the coldest hollows have some frost, but most of us shouldn't worry, as lows for most of Vermont will range from 38 to 45 degrees. The usual patchy fog will sock in the river valleys. 

The afternoon will warm up into the low 70s.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We're still looking at the fast air flow across the northern United States. So the forecast gets difficult, as timing fronts and high pressure systems is tricky.  The first front, Tuesday night, looks like something of a nothing burger, with light showers at most. Beyond that, it's a roll of the dice. 

Decent Vermont Overnight Rains Will Help With Dry Conditions, But Not Much New Rain In Forecast

A rose mallow bloom in St. Albans, Vermont seemed
happy with the overnight rain as it bloomed under
clearing skis this morning. 

As forecast, we had a nice rainy night across most of Vermont. 

It was too early as of this writing to have a complete listing of rainfall amounts, but it looks like everyone got a decent soaking except in the southeast corner of Vermont, all of which had been accurately forecast by the National Weather Service. 

Burlington received 0.74 inches, and my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected just about the same amount.  Montpelier 0.45; St. Johnsbury, 0.57. 

Rutland is the big winner so far at 1.13 inches. Springfield had 0.56 inches. Bennington had just 0.38 inches.  I don't have reports from far southeast Vermont, but it doesn't look like it rained much there. 

Keene, New Hampshire, just 18 miles east of Brattleboro, had only 0.06 inches. Central New England largely missed out on this. 

Let's go on to the forecasts

TODAY

We woke up this morning with the rain gone, the weather fronts having rushed off to the east. Humidity peaked overnight, but it was starting to decrease as dawn broke. It was still a little muggy during the morning rush hour, but the end to that is near. 

Brisk west winds, sort of shifting from southwest to northwest as the day goes by, will flush the humidity out. Under partly sunny skies, we should get into the 70s to near 80 southeast.

As one last weak weather front comes through, the clouds might tend to increase a bit toward late afternoon and evening, especially north, and one or two very light showers might pop up. But most of us will stay dry. 

FRIDAY

Before dawn,  a push of drier air will clear skies. That might yield to some patchy fog in the valleys as the sun rises. Typical for September.

We'll have a noticeably cooler day. with highs only reaching to within a few degrees either side of 70. Nothing unusual. for this time of year. We've seen much colder weather this time of year, now that we're well into September. (The record for the coldest high temperature in Burlington on Friday is 54 degrees in 1917.)

We'll see lots of sunshine and lighter winds than we'll see today, so it'll be a very nice day. Maybe go apple picking or something?

Clear, calm conditions will drop temperatures into the 40s in most places by dawn Saturday. 

SATURDAY

Another gorgeous day. Patchy valley fog will once again accompany the early chill, but afternoon temperatures will rise well into the 70s. 

NEXT WEEK

We'll see a changeable period. A fast west to east flow will keep ridiculous, persistent and in some cases record late season heat and humidity mostly to the southern half the United States. Cold fronts will race by, not lingering long enough to give us much rain. 

Occasionally, the heat and humidity will try to sneak into the North Country, but that will get beaten back by the cold fronts. Timing when we might get any showers is tricky in this pattern.  It doesn't look like all that much rain will come out of all this. 

Vermont Weather To Bounce Around, Cool To Muggy To Warm To Cool; Some Needed Rain Thrown In

After a little welcome morning rain in St. Albans, skies
at least partly cleared in the afternoon. We ended up
with a pleasant afternoon with a  pretty skies. 

As expected, the rain in northern Vermont faded quickly as it headed south, amounting to nothing south of Route 2.  

Right near the Canadian border, the rain was pretty decent - at or above a quarter inch. Derby Line had a half inch, Swanton just a smidge under a third of an inch. 

Here in St. Albans had 0.21 inches, and that reduced to 0.02 for a total in Burlington. Nothing in places like Montpelier and Rutland. 

After the morning clouds and cool air, it turned into a nice afternoon, especially in northern Vermont. 

The changes keep coming. 

This morning, temperatures in North Country, ranging from frost in northern Maine to muggy low 70s in western New York. In Vermont, 5 a.m. temperatures ranged from 43 in Lyndonville and 63 in Rutland. 

Since weather usually comes from the west, you know what's going to happen. The muggy air will win out. At least briefly. 

Here's what happens next:

TODAY

The clouds will increase, and south winds will increase and the humidity will increase. By this evening, the air will definitely have a muggy feel.

Rain will move in from the west. There could be some very light showers at any time today, but the rain will begin in earnest mid to late afternoon, spreading west to east. Before the rain gets here, we should get into the low and mid 70s, with sone upper 60s northeast.

It'll be a fairly steady light to at times to moderate rain at times, then tonight it will turn into a showery type thing, typical of what you'd expect in humid air. There could be some brief downpours and a rumble or two of thunder overnight. 

It'll be a somewhat sticky, uncomfortable night for sleeping, too. One of the last of this year. Maybe even the last, if we're lucky. 

If we get lucky, current forecasts will pan out and we'll get a needed wetting. Total rainfall looks to be around a half inch to an inch in central and northern Vermont. Maybe a little less than that in the immediate Champlain Valley, maybe a little more than that in the Green Mountains. The lower Connecticut River Valley, from around Springfield south, might only get 0.1 to 0.25 inches. 

As always with this type of event, there will be some local surprises with some spots getting more than forecast, and some places getting a little less. Luck of the draw, you understand. 

THURSDAY

Another changeable day. Abrupt, breezy changes are another sign of fall, even though tomorrow will not at all feel like autumn. 

Once we get into the fall, storm systems get stronger. Which means winds get stronger, temperature and humidity trends get stronger. And they happen over shorter periods of time. 

We start the day with the overnight rain gone already. It'll be a humid morning, and if you're exercising out in the early morning sun, you really will sweat it through. 

But winds will pick up from the west and eventually northwest. You'll feel the humidity gradually fade away during the day. By mid to late afternoon, it should actually start to feel refreshing amid those gusty breezes.

It will be warm, though. We'll get into the 70s, with a couple 80s poking out in the lower Connecticut Valley and maybe the Champlain Valley. All under at least partly sunny skies. 

FRIDAY

Back to traditional September, for a little while anyway. A cool, possibly foggy early morning will yield a generally sunny, cool afternoon. Temperatures should peak within a few degrees either side of 70 degrees. 

SATURDAY

Another nice one. It'll start chilly, with lows in the 40s. The usual September dense fog will shroud the river valleys. Sunshine will boost temperatures well into the 70s. 

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

Changeable, but it's a little hard to give a firm forecast this far in advance. It looks like Sunday could start to turn more humid. Perhaps after a break on Monday, the humidity could briefly return Tuesday. There's chances of showers amidst all this, but we don't know how much rain that might involve. 

A Surprisingly Wet Morning North, But Vermont Weather Should Improve This Afternoon

Weather radar showed a solid band of rain across 
northern Vermont as of 8 a.m. this morning. A weak 
cold front was creating a little more rain than
expected, but some sunshine should break out later today

We knew a weak cold front would drift into northern Vermont this morning, with clouds and maybe a few sprinkles.  

However, the rain in the north was more widespread this morning than we thought. Which is a good thing. We needed the rain. 

At 8 a.m., weather radar showed widespread, mostly light rain covered Vermont north of Route 2. There were some moderately heavy spots of rain in this mass of sprinkles, drizzles and small raindrops.  

Despite continued forecasts for only a couple hundredths of an inch of rain, it looks a few lucky devils will get between a tenth and a quarter inch of rain.  Not huge, but we'll take it. Especially where some decent wetting hit the drought area in the Northeast Kingdom. 

The cold front, and the rain was slipping southward as of 8 a.m., so the rain will move south as well. It'll start to break up as it heads south, as the cold front itself is falling apart, too.  The showers in northern Vermont will gradually become more and more scattered and fade. The sun should come out, too, mixed with lingering clouds. 

Southern Vermont won't get any rain at all out of this.  They will have just a partly sunny day. Maybe an isolated shower in the mountains. Region-wide, highs will reach the 70s. 

We do have some more rain coming this week, too.

WEDNESDAY

The next, somewhat more powerful weather system will start to affect us.  We'll see increasing clouds, increasing south winds, increasing humidity, and eventually, increasing chances of showers. Especially north. 

Highs should reach the 70s again. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

I'm hoping we don't have another rainy forecast bust, like last week. On September 2, we expected a statewide, soaking nighttime rain. Instead, the only substantial rain hit the far north. This time, meteorologists expect the rain to concentrate itself in the north again, but a little rain should hit the far south, too. We hope. 

In any event, current forecasts call for a decent half inch to an inch of rain in the northern half of Vermont, a quarter to half inch in central Vermont, and less than a tenth of an inch in the far southeast. 

It'll be a muggy night, too as a squirt of humid air will try to sneak in. Very briefly. This weather system is blowing through quickly, so the hint of summer won't last all that long.

THURSDAY

Lingering morning showers will taper off, revealing a partly sunny, breezy, warm day. The morning humidity will fade, leading to fresher, afternoon air.  Highs should hit 80 degrees or so, probably one of the last such days of the year.  At most, we'll only have a handful of days that hit 80 before autumn really takes hold.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Delightful weather, the kind Vermont in September is famous for.  Daytimes will feature sunshine and highs in the 70s, with Saturday being the slightly warmer of the two days. 

Overnights will be cool, with lows in the 40s for most of us. As usual for this time of year, patchy dense fog will envelope river valleys early in the mornings. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

We might eke out another nice day Sunday, and then the next system will return a chance of showers early next week.  

Another Sign Of Autumn This Morning, Then Quick Blip Of Humidity, Rain

Henry the Weather Dog at the dog park in
St. Albans, Yesterday. The sun was out at
the moment this photo was taken, but
under clouds and with gusty north winds
it actually felt chilly at times. Autumn
is definitely showing itself. 

For the first time since maybe early June, I felt chilly for awhile Sunday afternoon.   

The highlight of the day for Henry the Weather Dog is a trip to the dog park here in St. Albans. I brought him there in my usual summer uniform: Shorts, a t-shirt, sneakers. 

It was 70 degrees out at best. Warm enough for that outfit. But the sun occasionally disappeared behind large, poofy clouds, so that cooled the air occasionally.  The wind also blows hard at the dog park, as it's funneled between Hard'ack Hill to the west and French Hill to the east. 

The result: I felt chilly. 

I'm not whining. It's not as if I was dying of hypothermia. Still, I took my goosebumps as a sign we are sinking deeper into autumn. 

And it was cool this morning too. It was 50 degrees in Banana-Belt Burlington this morning. It got down to 41 in Bennington and 42 in Morrisville and Lyndonville. 

The arrival of autumn comes in waves, the cool air interspersed with periods of warmer, even summery weather. So the vaguely nippy air we just had will relax into warmth. Let's get into the details.

TODAY

Temperatures have started rocketing upward and will peak well into the 70s this afternoon.  Maybe close to 80 in the warmest valleys. Henry's trip to the dog park today will not result in any shivers today. Sunshine will reign supreme. Get outside and enjoy!

TUESDAY

An extremely weak cold front should drift down from Quebec early in the morning. It'll probably bring a band of clouds. Maybe even a widely scattered light shower or sprinkle in the north. But the sun should partially make an appearance in the afternoon. It'll be a couple degrees cooler than today, but still in the 70s

WEDNESDAY

The next weather system will start to come at us from the west. South winds will pick up, and those south winds will pick up some humidity from the Gulf of Mexico and throw it at us. It'll start to feel sticky, and we'll have a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. 

A brief spell of very humid air will help blossom a period of rain, maybe briefly heavy overnight Wednesday/Thursday. There could even be a downpour or two. But the rain will rocket through here so fast Wednesday night it won't have a chance to give us all that much. 

We might see over a half inch of rain in northern Vermont, maybe a quarter to a half in central Vermont and the Champlain Valley, and less than a quarter inch far southeast. Of course, there might be adjustments to the forecast.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY

September in Vermont is famous for its spells of delightful weather. Sunshine, low humidity. With few springtime gnats or mosquitoes buzzing around and no mud underfoot. 

We might have a couple lingering showers Thursday, especially in the morning. Humidity will probably linger in the morning, too, but the air should start to feel more fresh in the afternoon. It'll be warm, as it could get up to 80 degrees or so. Not near any records by any stretch of the imagination, but a little warm for September. 

As it looks now, Friday and Saturday look delightful. Sunshine, maybe a few puffy afternoon clouds, with afternoon highs in the 70s. Both mornings will feature dense fog in the river valleys. That's also classic September weather. 

It's possible some light showers come back into the picture later on Sunday, but we might well squeak out another nice day.  

Incredibly Persistent Heat Dome Roasts Middle Of U.S; Ring Of Fire Storms In Northeast, We In Vermont Escapes

Schematic of a heat dome and ring of fire, similar to the
one we've been under since late July.  Hot sinking air
creates intense heat in the center of the nation. The 
edges of the heat dome has frequent bouts of 
severe thunderstorms. Graphic is from Iowa 
Storm Chasing Network

The weather pattern in the United States has been stuck since the end of July, which is an awfully long time for things to stay the same. It's been at least six weeks now with the same set up, with no sign of it ending soon. 

That's despite the fact that the season is changing, and weather patterns tend to get disrupted as we head into fall. This is an amazingly persistent stuck weather pattern, easily among the longest and most impressive I've seen. 

Here's how it's working:

A heat dome set up in the south-central part of the United States in late July and it's been there since. 

That has caused some horrible weather in much of the Lower 48. First, the heat: 

In Memphis, Tennessee every day since August 4 has been 90 degrees or more. It was 100 degrees on Wednesday and 101 on Thursday. Today through next Thursday will range from 98 to 101. 

In Oklahoma City, the final week of July featured daily high temperatures in the 100s. Then, 23 days in August reached 100 degrees, peaking at 109 degrees. It should be near 100 degrees there daily at least through Thursday.. 

Little Rock, Arkansas, all but one August day was 90 degrees or more. 13 days reached at least 100 degrees. 

The northern and often northeastern periphery of heat domes are known as the "ring of fire." the contrast between the deep heat and humidity to the south and cooler weather to the north creates intense batches of thunderstorms. 

That's why the Great Lakes and Northeast have been repeatedly raked by severe storms, flash floods and even tornadoes. Yesterday. a band extending from Michigan to Delaware endured severe weather. The day before, it the severe weather extended from Ontario to Virginia, with at least three tornadoes in western New York 

VERMONT CALMNESS

Here in Vermont, the weather pattern favored us. Sometimes, the "ring of fire" storms extended up here into northern New England, which helps explain why we had a few bouts with severe storms in late July and August.

But overall, this weather pattern makes Vermont a calm island in the wild conditions hitting much of the U.S.  Temperatures have been near normal, or just barely warmer than normal. The only drawback is that since we're north of the deep moisture associated with the ring of fire, rainfall has been lacking. 

It's not nearly as dry as it was at this time last year, when Vermont was in a deep drought. But, with the weather pattern stuck in place for now, we probably aren't going to see a super big rainstorm anytime soon. 

The specific forecast:

Today

Overall, a nice one. Partly cloudy, though mostly cloudy over the northern mountains. There could be a few light showers here and there, but most of us will stay dry. Highs should be comfortably in the 70s.

Saturday

It'll be a little cloudier than today, and a somewhat greater chance of showers. But the showers won't be light. If it rains where you are, it won't last all day. Not even close. Most of the day will be dry. Some places will see no rain. It'll be a little cooler. Highs will be in the upper 60s northern hilly areas and low to mid 70s in warmer valleys. 

Sunday

Another nice day. Cool-ish, low humidity, quite a bit of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys. Highs will be in the low 70s.

Next Week and Beyond

We'll continue to see occasional rather weak disturbance come through occasionally with likely light showers. One thing that is changing is that cool high pressure systems that come through once we hit September become larger and, of course, cooler than they were in August. I'm not ready to talk about frost yet, but sooner or later, that's going to be an issue. 

Also, the weather pattern will have to eventually break down. Larger autumn storms should eventually give us some more substantial rainstorms. And, eventually, snowstorms once we head toward winter. 

Long Stretch Of Vermont Warm Days End, Hopeful Signs Of Rain, Severe Weather Might Stay South Of Us

The spent blossoms of hostas glistened in the morning sun
this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. Rain chances ramp
up this week, but questions remain as to how much we'll see.. 

The signs of autumn continue to sneak in.

Clouds on Sunday in northern Vermont were a little thicker than expected and that held temperatures down into the 60s.

Burlington's high temperature was 69 degrees, ending an 83-day long stretch in which every single day had a high temperature of at least 70 degrees. 

That's the third longest such stretch on record. Only the summers of 1995 and 1901 had a longer such streak. (It was 87 such days in 1995, so we were very close. Had it been one degree warmer yesterday, Burlington probably would have broken the record, based on current forecasts. 

This hasn't been a particularly hot summer, but we've had long streaks of relatively warm weather. Earlier this summer, we had 21 consecutive day sin which the high temperature was 80 degrees or more. That was the fourth longest such stretch on record, 

Also, as of this morning, Burlington has had 88 consecutive days in which the low temperature was 50 or above. That's one of the longest on record, but it will be a stretch to what I think was the record - 106 such days in 2023.

Rainfall yesterday, as expected was pretty light. Two bursts of rain here in St. Albans, one at around 1 p.m. and another around 8:30 in the evening, left us with 0.38 inches of rain. Some rain fell in the Northeast Kingdom, where precipitation is really needed, but that was no drought buster. Burlington only managed 0.02 inches of rain. 

Southern Vermont, as expected, pretty much missed out on any rain. 

Enough of the past, let's look ahead. Rain is eventually in the forecast, but I do worry the Northeast Kingdom might miss out on some of it. 

TODAY

The front that came through last night is now stalled to our south and west 

It's going to create a lot of trouble from western New York to New Jersey over the next few days, but not so much here in Vermont.

We had a lot of dense morning fog this morning, but it was burning off pretty quickly as I wrote this around 9 a.m. today. It'll be a nice one, though high clouds will start to filter in this afternoon, especially south and west of Interstate 89. With low humidity and highs in the 70s, we shouldn't be bummed if the sun dims a bit this afternoon.

TUESDAY

A weird one. Southwest Vermont looks like it will barely escape the risk of super heavy rains and severe thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, which really needs the rain, will miss out. 

A nasty little weather disturbance will ride southeastward along that stalled front I talked about above. That disturbance will hurl batches of torrential rain and severe thunderstorms from western New York to the New Jersey and maybe southern New England. 

Southwest Vermont will be on the fringe of this. Places like Bennington could get a good half inch or more of rain out of this. More if the disturbance comes a little closer. Amounts will taper off as you had north and east such that the Northeast Kingdom will probably see no rain. 

Central Vermont will see just light showers. Highs will be in the 70s, with maybe some upper 60s south under the thicker clouds and rain

WEDNESDAY

Things start to get a litle more interesting here. A storm system will come at us, pushing that stalled front at us as it does so. 

All this will push some heavier rain through Vermont, especially in the afternoon and evening, as it looks now.   We're still lacking details on how heavy the rain will be, where any thunderstorms might set up, and whether they will be any flooding risk

For now, things look pretty tame in Vermont. Maybe not so tame a little south of here, but that's their problem. 

Parts of southern Vermont could easily see two inches of rain out of this system, so that will be the area to really keep an eye on. A broad band centered on Route 4 would see more than an inch.  The rest of the state would get a half inch to an inch. Decent, but not boffo. 

As always, I expect these totals will be adjusted up or down a bit before we get to Wednesday. 

Severe thunderstorms looks like they'll stay to our south, probably south of a Rochester, New York to NYC line. The Mid-Atlantic states are in for it, as they could see severe weather and flash floods daily Tuesday through Friday. 

THURSDAY-SATURDAY

The storm will be to our east by then, but sort of linger, aide by a pool of cool air overhead. That keeps the risk of clouds and showers going. The showers will be light, and large parts of the day will be dry. Thursday has the highest risk of showers. Friday looks like it will have long dry periods in between scattered showers, and Saturday looks like the showers will be few and far between.

Again, this is a peek a few days into the future, so expect adjustments. 

Overall. this is a hopeful week to at least temporarily stall a potentially building drought in Vermont. Extended forecasts beyond Saturday suggest a week or two of below normal precipitation, so that would be a bummer. 

But, at least things aren't shaping up to be nearly as bad as last year's drought.

 

Once Again, Close Miss With The Storms In Vermont, Much Calmer Weather Coming In Today, Tomorrow

A likely tornado near Wilton, NY on
Thursday. The storm was only about
25 miles west of the Vermont border at
the time. The storm that produced the
probable tornado ended up in northern
 Bennington County, Vermont later,
but it had weakened
considerably by then, causing
little or no damage in Vermont, 

It looks like Vermont escaped much trouble from the volatile atmosphere over the region yesterday, but it was another close call.  

The only damage report I've seen in Vermont so far is in Westmore, not too far from the western shore of  Lake Willoughby.  A couple of pine trees were tossed down by severe thunderstorm winds very late in the afternoon. 

Things were much worse early last evening  a little west of Vermont in Saratoga County, New York

A likely tornado touched sown around Wilton, New York. The town is between Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls, New York and a little less than 30 miles west of the Vermont border near Rupert. 

Video on social media shows what appears to be a tornado funnel looking north from Saratoga Springs amid what is clearly a severe thunderstorm. The video also appears to show intense rear flank downdraft winds behind the possible tornado. 

The second floor of  house in Wilton was damaged, and numerous trees were reported down. Additional tree damage was reported across several spots in Gansvoort, which is about five miles east of Wilton. 

The tornado appears to have crossed  Interstate 87 (the Northway) near Wilton and Gansvoort. Fallen trees closed travel lanes.   

So far, no injuries have been reported.

The National Weather Service office in Albany, New York is headed out to Saratoga County today, especially around the town of Wilton  for a look-see to determine for sure whether that was a tornado, or just severe, damaging winds. 

The supercell that caused the likely tornado in New York continued on toward Bennington County, Vermont but weakened as it did so. I've not seen any damage reports out of southwest Vermont from the storm. 

We have an interlude of calmer weather coming in. No more tornadoes for the foreseeable future. Let's get into the daily forecasts

TODAY

One last cold front with this latest weather system is coming through today. We started out with relatively mild air, along with moderately high humidity. 

That won't last. 

The front might fire up some widely scattered showers or even a rumble of thunder in a few places. But those showers won't amount to much and many places won't see any rain at all in the north. There's a high chance that almost nobody in southern Vermont will see any rain, either. 

It's too bad there won't be widespread rain. we need it. Spoiler: I'll have more on the lack of rain in a separate post later today. 

The bonus with this front is we'll get another whoosh  of pleasant weather. This will arguably be the coolest air we've seen since early June. .Cold fronts are starting to have more oomph now as we get near September. 

Highs today will only be in the low 70s north. Southern valleys could make it to around 80 degrees as they will be the last to see the cold front. Much cooler and less humid air will keep flowing in this evening. 

SATURDAY

Still looking like a beauty. It'll start off chilly. Another sign of autumn. Most of us will be in the 40s at dawn. There could be a couple upper 30s in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. Readings near Lake Champlain will be in the low 50s. 

As usual on calm mornings this time of year, we'll start the day with patchy dense fog. But that'll burn off quickly to reveal a sunny, comfortable day. Some puffy clouds will decorate the sky, especially over the mountains. If you are in the mountains, I guess it'll be only partly sunny. Highs should reach the 70s pretty much area wide. 

No complaints, though. If you were planning an outdoor event for Saturday, the weather gods are totally with you. 

SUNDAY

Another cold front should approach Vermont from Quebec and Ontario. It'll set off clouds and maybe some showers north, but it should still be an OK day, as it looks now. The front is expected to stall in a northwest to southeast orientation somewhere near the Green Mountain State Sunday night. This has implications for the weather next week.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY

That stalled front will meander somewhere over the Northeast, but it's unclear exactly where. It's also unknown how little disturbances running along the front will behave, and whether this means any decent rains for Vermont.  

A weather set up like this caused some flooding in Rutland County, Vermont in early September, 1985, but flooding from this coming weather pattern is very much a long shot. I wouldn't worry about it. 

A possible second cold front will probably sweep it all away maybe next Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned.  

A Gorgeous Vermont Wednesday, Storm Risk Thursday And Another Sign Of Autumn?

A very of Jay Peak on a lovely late afternoon yesterday
as viewed from near Enosburgh, Vermont. 

 OK, Tuesday's weather wasn't bad at all, as a low morning overcast in parts of Vermont broke up into puffy clouds mixed with blue skies. And it was cool, or at least cool-ish, with a hint of autumn in the air.  

After a comfortable night, we have a beauty on the way to day, with sunshine, low humidity and comfortable afternoon temperatures into the 70s to around 80. 

Today will be the 17th day in a row with a remarkable stretch of steady temperatures. Daily high temperatures in Burlington have ranged only nine degrees between 73 and 82 degrees.

That steady streak might be slightly broken tomorrow. You't think that since we're headed toward fall, it would be a cool high temperature. Nope, it might be on the warm side. 

Here are the details on Thursday, since it will be kind of a busy day. 

THURSDAY

South winds will import warmer, more humid air into Vermont. The expected high temperature in Burlington is 84 degrees. That's nothing special for late August but still the warmest since August 9. 

A cold front will be approaching.  The combination of that front, the warmth and the humidity, as is so often the case in the summer, is a recipe for thunderstorms. Especially since the front will be approaching  during peak heating in the afternoon. 

As nice as this summer has been in Vermont, it's also been a stormy one, and it's looking like we have another round to go through.

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk, a one out of five alert level for severe storms. That means we might see some isolated instances of damming winds or hail Thursday afternoon or evening. 

The SPC even has us in a very, very low, but not zero risk of another tornado in Vermont. We've already had two tornadoes, and at least three close misses with tornado weather, the most recent of which was during severe weather in Franklin County back on August 10.

 It does look like there's a slightly higher chance of severe storms a little to our south, in central New York and eastern Pennsylvania, and we'll keep an eye out on whether that somewhat higher alert level moves north toward us. 

As always with these thunderstorms, it will be hit and miss. Some of us will get nailed with lightning, wind and downpours and others will be left out. In general, we'll probably only get a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a few spots getting cheated out of any rain at all, and a very few others getting a good inch of rain if they get hit by more than one thunderstorms. 

FRIDAY

Cold fronts bring colder air - duh! - so it will be cooler. It's still August, so don't reach for the ski parkas and ear muffs, it won't get that cold. Highs will be in the 70s, under partly sunny skies. There might be some lingering light showers, and the day may prove rather cloudy over the northern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. 

There might even be a rumble of thunder or two mixed with with the showers. But overall, rainfall will be light. The vast majority of us will get less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Some places will get nothing, or just sprinkles. 

And here's another subtle sign of autumn: The temperature in Burlington might go under 50 degrees Friday night and early Saturday for the first time since June 3.  This might among the longest times   spent Burlington has ever spent above 50 degrees on record, but it's not the record longest.

It was continuously above 50 degrees from June 6 to September 21, 2023, for instances. A few other summers in the past decade or two have had long stretches above 50 like this, but it used to be unheard of. We're living in a warmer world now.

SATURDAY

Our trend of lovely Vermont summer Saturdays continues. After a cool start (see above) with patchy fog in the valleys, it should turn sunny and mild, with low humidity once again.  At least if current forecasts are correct. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

So far, Sunday is looking like another gorgeous day before shower chances return on Monday. How the showers play out early next week is still a big question mark, but it's nothing to worry about for now. 

Showery Vermont Sunday, Might Be Thundery Depending On The Atmosphere. So-so Weather To Start The Week

A hibiscus flower on my back deck blooms amid the
very steady temperatures we've had this month so far.

We had another nice comfortable day in Vermont Saturday, though, as expected it was nicer the further north and west you went. 

Skies were mostly sunny in the far northwest, but rather cloudy southeast. High were in the 70s to a couple 80 degree readings in the sunshine northwest. 

Today will not be so nice with showers and maybe a strong thunderstorm or two. More on that in a minute, but first, some weird Vermont climatology. 

Yesterday's highs spotlighted a remarkable steady trend in temperatures. In the twelve days since August 10 daily high temperatures have ranged only between 73 and 82 degrees, as measured in Burlington.  In that respect I guess you can call our recent weather boring. Especially since those temperatures are close to normal. 

WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consul recently noted on Facebook that this is the time of year that normally has the least day-to-day variation in temperature. Average is four or five degrees difference in temperature day to day in August. 

But this stretch has been much more than that, with just nine degrees difference over 12 days. The same period last year had high temperatures ranging between 70 and 98 degrees. So things aren't always this steady in August.  

I think the lack of variety in temperatures stems from the fact it's still summer. We don't yet have the powerful cold and warm fronts that make Vermont days wildly different between, say, Monday and Tuesday. 

Also, ground and water temperatures are near their peak this time of year, and that tends to moderate the temperature.

Remarkably, over the coming seven days, the National Weather Service says afternoon highs will remain almost within the range we've had for nearly two weeks now. Between now and next Saturday, daily highs in Burlington are forecast to range between 75 to 84.

For now, then, if you don't like the weather in Vermont, you have to wait much more than a minute for it to change. 

Unless you're talking about cloud cover and rainfall. For the next week or so, expect rain to pop up randomly from time to time. The sun will be in and out of the clouds. Here are the details. 

TODAY

Kind of a confusing day in the weather department. Here's why: Virtually everyone in Vermont should get rain today, but most of us won't see much of it. But a few places could have some heavy downpours. 

There's also mixed signals on whether any thunderstorms this afternoon and evening might get strong or not. 

As forecast, a storm is going by to our west, taking most of its heavy rain with it. But that storm is swinging a weather front our way. It'll come at us from the west. 

The timing is such that the best chance of showers and storms would be in the afternoon and early evening. That's the time of day with peak heating, which is great if you want strong storms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk - level 1 of 5 alert level - for severe storms. That would mean there would be a couple isolated incidents of severe weather in Vermont, but most of us will be fine. 

If any severe weather does get going in Vermont today, it would take the form of very local areas of damaging winds or hail.

Complicating the forecast is some showers this morning. Those showers were working their way northward through Vermont this morning. The patchy morning rain and overcast might be enough to squelch instability in the atmosphere. That, it turn would prevent most thunderstorms from forming. 

We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out, I guess. It won't rain all day, so you can get outside. If you are outdoors, especially on the lakes, head inside if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, or if you get a weather warning or special weather statement.

Highs today will once again be in the 70s to near 80, and it will feel a bit more humid than it's been

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Weak low pressure spinning in Quebec should keep clouds and the risk of mostly light showers going both days. In a flip flop from Saturday, southern Vermont valleys should see the best weather with more sunshine and a much lower chance of showers. 

Northern Vermont, especially in the Green Mountains, will see more clouds and a better chance of showers. Those areas could pick up another quarter to a third of an inch of rain. Not all that much, but anything is helpful while we await a soaking rain that's still not in the forecast.

Highs both days should be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

At the point, it's looking like a return to nice weather. Warm, too with highs in many places getting to 80 degrees. Thursday's forecast high in Burlington is 84, which isn't that wild for this time of year, but it would still be the hottest day since August 9.

The warmth on Thursday might be tempered by clouds arriving from the next weather system, so we'll see.

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

Another batch of showers looks to come through Friday. Those could linger into Saturday. So far, this systems does not look impressive

 

Today Is Another Nice Vermont Summer Day. Tomorrow Brings Showers, But Probably Not Enough

A pot of flowers enjoys this morning's sunshine in 
St. Albans, Vermont. We've been watering these
plants since  not enough rain has been falling from
the sky. A little rain is forecast tomorrow

 We promised a perfect Friday weather day and that is what we got. 

Nothing was wrong. Temperatures were perfect, skies were blue with just a few puffy clouds. And somehow, despite all the wildfires burning out West and in Canada, there was no smoky haze in the atmosphere. 

The weather for the weekend won't be as nice as yesterday. But the rest of today should be OK, and Sunday probably won't be a complete washout. 

I had a late night, so I'm doing my morning report really late so, let's get into it

REST OF TODAY

Sunshine should  generally hang on, as forecasters have delayed an expected increase in clouds. Some clouds will work in during the afternoon, but it should remain a nice one. Judging from this morning's satellite photos, southeast Vermont will likely have more clouds that the northwest part of the state. 

High temperatures should be within a few degrees either side of 80. 

SUNDAY

We're still lookin at two storms going past us, one to the east, one to the west. The weak coastal storm to the east will take almost all of its rain through eastern New England. The storm to the west, moving into Quebec, will take most of its rain through western New York and on toward Ottawa and north of that.

That western storm should swing a weather front toward us, leaving mixed opinions on how that will affect Vermont weather. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says instability in the atmosphere will be pretty lame, so if any thunderstorms do manage to get going they won't be particularly intense

Meanwhile,  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning there could be an isolated storm or two that could produce damaging winds. Severe weather under this scenario wouldn't be widespread, but there could be a trouble spot or two

In any event, most of us won't get that much rain tomorrow afternoon and evening. Except for places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm, we should expect a quarter inch of rain or less.

High temperature should get into the 70s and low 80s, and it'll feel little more humid than it's been lately. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

The storm, such as it is, will swirl up on Quebec for a couple days, sending somewhat cool breezes and some moisture our way. That means partly to mostly cloudy skies and showers. Those showers should be few and far between in southern valleys, but pretty frequent far north and in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

The showers won't be particularly heavy. Northern areas might pick up another quarter inch of rain, while southern spots will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less. We could use much more rain than that, but I don't see any real soakers on the horizon. 

Vermont Continues To Be Blessed By Great Late Summer Weather, But Rain Would Still Be Nice

A storm looms north of St. Albans, Vermont late yesterday
afternoon. Only a few places in far northern Vermont 
got some rain yesterday. 
Photo by Jeff Modereger.

As expected, any showers and storms pretty much stayed near the Canadian border yesterday and last night. 

One downpour just missed my house in St. Albans, Vermont during the late afternoon, which is too bad, because now I have to rig up the hoses to water the gardens. 

Especially since no rain is anticipated until Sunday, and that rain at this point does not look impressive. 

Other showers and isolated thunderstorms ran right along the Canadian border in New York and northwest Vermont late in the evening.  But again, most of us missed out.  On the bright side there was no severe weather. 

As always, let's get into the Vermont dailies

TODAY

We started out this morning with comfortable temperatures in the 50s, with the usual patches of early morning fog, especially in the river valleys. Otherwise, the mostly clear skies we're starting out with today will become more cloudy by afternoon. Mostly high clouds, especially north. 

The weather system that caused renewed flooding in Indiana and Ohio yesterday and last night is passing to our south, and that's what's throwing the clouds our way. There's a slight chance of light showers near the Massachusetts border this evening. But nothing major.

FRIDAY

Friday still looks like the pick of the week. After another comfortable dawn with those patchy areas of fog again, we'l have sunny skies, low humidity, with highs in the 70s to near 80. Can't get much better than that. 

SATURDAY

We continue the trend we've had this summer of nice Saturdays, at least in northern Vermont. More morning fog, then sunshine, highs again in the 75 to 82 degree range. Some clouds might increase in the afternoon.

Further south, the clouds will probably come in on Saturday sooner than in the north, and there could be some afternoon showers. So head north if you want the nicest weather. 

SUNDAY

There is a chance of showers, but Vermont might get cheated out on soaking rains. At this point, it looks like one storm will take some decent rains northward through western and central New York and into western Quebec.

Another little coastal low looks like it will bring another batch of heavy rain, or at least heavy-ish rain northward through the eastern half of New England. 

Vermont will be in the middle, with much less rain. There's still a chance things could rearrange themselves so that the rain comes down a little harder, a little more beneficial. 

It should be warm, with highs in the low 80s. It will also be a little warm humid.

MONDAY

Cooler, with a risk of remaining showers. Not sure how cool yet, but it could be another hint of autumn. 

Mostly Quiet Vermont Week Continues, Possible Storms Northwest This Afternoon; Weekend Rain Questions

I had a dream last night that Vermont was raked by
extreme tornadoes, like the one pictured, along
with extreme floods and August snow. Happily
for all of us, we're in the midst of a relatively
uneventful weather week. Though there could
be a few storms north late today. 

 The fog was a little slow to clear in some areas of Vermont yesterday, but it did clear, leading to a partly cloudy, seasonable day. Hope you enjoyed it!

Since we don't have much weather excitement, I have to tell you about one of my strange dreams last night. (I have vivid, weird dreams on a nightly basis).

In the dream, El Nino triggered a massive, unprecedented late August storm in the Northeast. 

Everybody in New England, including here in Vermont,  was told to expect a swarm of powerful EF-5 tornadoes, followed by hurricane force winds, rains that would cause epic floods followed by several inches of August snow. 

I'm extremely happy to report that I guarantee we won't see anything dramatic like that this week. Or any week. Sure, climate change and El Nino are making weather more extreme, but nothing like that!

Instead, were happily stuck with a week of fairly nice, mostly uneventful
weather, but with a few hiccups here and there. 

The first hiccup is today.

REST OF TODAY

We are still expecting that dying cold front to make its way toward us this afternoon, from the northwest. 

I'm a little gun shy now when I bring up a chance of thunderstorms. After last week, when it seemed any little thunderstorm would blow up into something severe, I don't want to relax too much about the chances of high winds or other problems with any thunderstorms. 

That said, the deck is stacked against severe weather. As this morning's National Weather Service forecast discussion points out, there is some wind aloft that thunderstorms could potentially use to create gusty winds down here where we live. But a lack of instability, dry air aloft and some showers in Quebec this morning will all work against any storms taking advantage of those winds aloft. 

To quote the National Weather Service/South Burlington office: "Strong to severe storms are not likely today, but cannot be completely ruled out."

Sigh.

If any storms happen, they're most likely in northern New York and the far northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. Even those late afternoon and evening showers and storms will be hit and miss, so not everybody in this zone will get wet.

The further south you go, the less chance of rain. Everybody, or almost everybody in southern Vermont gets nothing. Overall, it'll be a typical August day, with highs near 80 degrees with moderate humidity.

THURSDAY

There might be some clouds around in the afternoon, but overall it'll be a nice day, as highs get well into the 70s. There could be a sprinkle over the northern mountains and Northeast Kingdom, but it won't be nearly enough to ruin this cool-ish August day.

FRIDAY

We'll be off to a cool start with patchy early morning fog.  Most places will be in the low 50s as dawn breaks, with the chillier valleys in the upper 40s. The fog will burn off to reveal the pick of the weather week, Highs will reach the 70s to near 80 under sunny skies and low humidity.

SATURDAY

Another nice one, as it looks now. Sunshine, with maybe some afternoon clouds It'll be up near 80 degrees.

SUNDAY

The next weather system arrives. It looks like the day might be showery, especially later on. But the amount and location of the rain, along with the timing of it, are still in the iffy stage. However, this doesn't look like a serious, scary storm at this point

 

Another Foggy Vermont Morning; Rest Of Week Looks Quiet

The sky looked ominous over St. Albans, Vermont 
yesterday, but nothing much came of it. Very
little rain fell in most of the state, except
for a few places in Addison and Orange counties, 

As usual, there were winners and losers with the rain Sunday night and Monday, but mostly losers. 

The majority of us got less than a quarter inch of rain, with some people getting scarcely anything at all. Burlington reported just 0.08 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge here in St. Albans saw 0.11 inches. 

However, the weak cold front yesterday slowed to a crawl or even stalled across central Vermont yesterday afternoon and evening, so rain became generous in parts of that region. Sections of Addison County had over an inch of rain.

Parts of Orange County came in with the big win. Corinth reported a whopping 2.6 inches of rain and Newbury had about two inches. 

The lingering humidity, the rain showers, and last night's calm winds left us with another early morning of dense fog across Vermont. That will have lifted or be in the process of doing so by the time you read this.  Though a few places will take time to lose the low clouds and fog, and it could take until mid -morning to clear in some spots.

It'll be a quiet week as subtle signs of autumn begin to emerge. The swamp maples look reddish. Some sugar maples with salt damage near busy roads are sporting colorful leaves. Backyard gardens are starting to look ragged.

And it will be another week in the air will certainly feel summery and warm  enough. But most nights will be somewhat cool. Nights are longer now, so there's more time for the temperature to drop.

Early morning's patchy fog, itself a sign of autumn will be a risk many mornings. It's still summer, but it's beginning to fade. 

The details:

TODAY

After the fog disappears, the day will be decent. Partly sunny, highs near 80 with moderate humidity. The dew point will be in the low 60s, so you might feel just the slightest feeling of stickiness to the air. I suppose there's an outside chance of a brief shower over the mountains and in eastern Vermont but the vast majority of us should stay dry.  

WEDNESDAY

After a comfortable sleeping night, sunshine should boost us back to near 80 degrees by afternoon, says the National Weather Service. Those meteorologists are still watching a dying cold front that will be approaching us from the northwest in the afternoon and evening. 

That front could set off some showers and maybe a few garden variety thunderstorms in northwestern Vermont. Those showers are likely in the far northwest, with hit and miss chances in the rest of northwest half of the state. Areas to the south and east should get nothing. 

Those who do get rain won't get much, except for maybe one or two towns far northwest that get a real thunderstorm.  This front looks like a nothing burger as it washes out and dies overhead Wednesday night. So sad. 

THURSDAY-SATURDAY

Fingers crossed we have a gorgeous stretch of weather coming this way. Skies should be generally sunny, though a few clouds and isolated showers might linger on Thursday and skies could start to cloud up a bit Saturday afternoon Also, that patchy early morning dense fog might be back, too.

But the humidity will be low. Mornings will start out in the comfortable 50s and end up near 80 again in the afternoon each day. Late August can be a slightly warmer version of the pleasantness of September, and it looks like we'll have an example here. 

SUNDAY-MONDAY

The rain risks returns on these days, but it's still anyone's guess on how much we get and who gets the most. 

Last Night's Vermont Predicted Rainfall Was A Bust, Some Showers Today, Pretty Nice Week Ahead

A sign that summer is ending The hydrangea flowers 
in my backyard are fading to pink and russet,
which is what normally happens as we head through
August and move toward September. 

A couple days ago, meteorologists all thought Vermont was in for a a good soaking rain that would have hit last night. 

So much for that. 

The forecast evolved so that newer forecasts had only northern Vermont receiving good rains. In turns out, the rain real rain stayed mostly in Quebec. Only light showers passed through the Green Mountain State. 

We've had a lot of surprises in the weather department lately. Those intense storms in northwest Vermont a week ago was the worst surprise.

I'm suspicious. I know National Weather Service meteorologists are top rate, dedicated and do the best job they can. 

My suspicious continues to be the infamous DOGE cutbacks at the National Weather Service. Those cutbacks have probably degraded the weather data meteorologists use to make their forecasts. Garbage in, garbage out. 

This is my suspicion. I have no proof. I'm hoping somebody out there is studying this, so that everybody knows the Trump administration does not care about Americans' weather safety. 

Soapbox done, on with an attempt to describe what comes next.

REST OF TODAY

It looks like a broken line of showers will start to develop along and ahead of a weak cold front sometime late this morning or around noon in northwest Vermont. Those showers will gradually strengthen. Some will become thunderstorms.

They'll probably reach peak strength roughly along a broad, fat line running between Middlebury and St Johnsbury. They won't be severe, though some could get fairly strong in the southern Champlain Valley.  This should happen around the mid and late afternoon and continue into the early evening as they head toward Rutland and White River Junction. 

After that, as the showers slowly head southeast, they'll begin to weaken. 

Rainfall in Vermont will be super variable, as they always are with summer showers and thunderstorms. a few lucky places will collect an inch of rain. Many places will see only maybe a quarter inch. It looks like some places in far northwest and in southeast Vermont might get very little rain. 

While all this is going on, the rest of today will be a muggy, but not super hot, because of the clouds. The dew point will rise to near 70 degrees, which is pretty ugly in terms of humidity. 

TOMORROW

Our cold front, it you can call it that, is really weak. So, unlike late last week, we're not going to see a huge shift in the weather. Tomorrow will be less humid, but not exactly super refreshing. It'll be kinda humid, but not terrible. Mediocre for August. 

But it will get at least partly sunny, with highs near 80 degrees, so not a bad day. 

WEDNESDAY

Another cold front will approach, but it's another lame one, and it will probably fall apart as it comes through, or at least shortly after it comes through. It'll have enough oomph to set off some showers, especially in New York and maybe western Vermont. Since the front will be falling apart, showers are less likely further east.

This is a preliminary look. Things could change with this, but we're not expecting anything dramatic. It'll still be somewhat humid, with highs again near 80.

LATE WEEK

Despite the lame nature of the cold front, it should turn less humid, definitely in the pleasant range. If this forecast works out, it'll be a nice end to the week, with highs near 80 and lows comfortably in the 50s. 

Summer is fading, as no hot spell are in the forecast. The chances of more 90 degree days are still real, but those chances are fading. 

 

Hint Of Autumn In Vermont. Next Up: Upcoming Rain Not As Big A Soaker As Previously Hoped

Yesterday was the first day this season that really felt like autumn was coming. 

Expected rainfall through Monday night. Decent rains
are forecast in the Northeast Kingdom, with lesser 
amounts south. Severe weather is unlikely, we hope!

Thanks in part to extra clouds during part of the day, and also some steady north winds, Saturday was a little cooler than forecast. In Burlington, we had the coolest average temperature since June 7. The temperature barely made it to 70 degrees in Montpelier and Newport. 

At dawn today, it was in the 40s statewide, except for a few low 50s near Lake Champlain. It will get a little warmer this week, but full summertime heat looks fleeting, at least for now. Let's get into it.

TODAY

There were already high clouds mixed with some wildfire smoke aloft, overhead early this morning in northern Vermont, while southern Vermont remained clear. I think northern Vermont might tend to temporarily clear out, and then clouds, and maybe a little smoke aloft will start to return this afternoon. 

The smoke is not near the surface,  so there won't be any air quality problems. Rainfall has been postponed again, so you'll have a dry day for outdoor activities. It will also be a little warmer than yesterday, as we get into the  upper 70s, give or take.

TONIGHT

It's still going to rain, later tonight, but not as much as we first hoped. There could still be some decent rains in the Northeast Kingdom, which is good because they need the rain more than other parts of the state. Up there, current forecasts give them a half to an inch of rain. 

The rest of us are in line for a tenth to a half inch of rain tonight through Monday. So nothing huge, but still, pretty decent. The northern Champlain Valley should have a little more than in southern Vermont. 

MONDAY

The rain won't be over as a cold front slowly makes its way toward Vermont.  It'll be a humid Monday quite a switch from the last few days. Dew points could get as high as 70s degrees, which is oppressive as hell.

Showers could break out at any time, most likely in the afternoon. There could be some thunderstorms, too, especially in western Vermont south of Burlington, as it looks now.  Meteorologists don't think we face more severe storms, but we'll have to watch western Vermont for an isolated strong storm or two. 

TUESDAY

A decent day. Sunshine, with lower humidity. Much better than Monday will be, but not rock bottom humidity like we expect on Monday.  Highs should get up to within a few degrees either side of 80.

REST OF WEEK

Another front should arrive Wednesday and Wednesday evening with showers and possible thunderstorms. So far, I'm not too impressed by this weather system, but we'll see how it plays out. We might  have some showers lingering into Thursday, but again, no big deal. 

Another round of nice late summer weather should return by late in the week. But remember, forecasts several days out are subject to big time revisions. Don't start planning your outdoor events for next weekend just yet.  

Vermont Avoiding Midwest Weather Chaos, Though A Few Storms Could Rumble Through Here Today, Tomorrow

Damage from severe weather in Tinley Park, Illinois on
Tuesday. Photo via Facebook, Midwest/Great Lakes
Storm Chasers

 Midwestern storms - likely a derecho - yesterday made the violent storms that hit Franklin County, Vermont on Monday evening look like a pleasant summertime sun shower. 

The Midwestern storms caused at least three deaths, and I predict this will be another billion dollar disaster for the U.S. 

Intense thunderstorm winds swept from Iowa to West Virginia. At least six tornadoes were reported and more will emerge as National Weather Service meteorologists investigate the carnage today. Two tornadoes struck suburban Chicago, an area that has been especially raked by severe storms and tornadoes this summer.

The National Weather Service had at least 723 reports of powerful thunderstorm winds. Straight line winds gusted to over 90 mph in several Illinois towns. 

In Portage, Illinois, a house exploded because of weather related causes, killing a person there. Police officers responding to the explosion had to walk a mile to the house because fallen trees made all streets in accessible. 

There's no rest for the Midwestern weary.  Severe thunderstorms are likely today in a broad band from South Dakota and Nebraska to Indiana and Kentucky. Flash flooding is also a good bet in large parts of the Midwest over the next four days. 

Here in Vermont, we're going to just mostly watch all this from the sidelines. But we will have some showers and thunderstorms to harass us for the next couple of days. 

TODAY

Not quite as nice a Wednesday as we thought yesterday, but still pretty good. It'll be partly sunny with temperatures peaking at around 80 degrees. It's now looking like we'll have some hit and miss shower and thunderstorms across central and northern Vermont this evening. At this point it looks like maybe only 50 percent of us get wet. 

Even better: So far at least, these storms don't look l like they'll be strong. We're definitely hoping for no more surprises like we saw Monday evening. 

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT

More showers and storms are likely during Thursday and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches. Many places won't have thunder at all, or if they do, it'll be just a couple of rumbles. There's still a chance one or two storms could be strong north of Route 2, but that's really iffy. Shower chances are lower in southern Vermont. 

By the way, we're starting to get out of the season in which severe thunderstorms are most likely. Severe storm season, such as it is in Vermont is usually from around Memorial Day to early August. We can still get severe thunderstorms into September, but the chances of that happening are now much lower than they were at the peak of summer. 

FRIDAY

The first hint of autumn of the season. Well see brisk northwest winds and partly sunny skies. There could be some brief light showers over the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. Highs should reach the 70s, with maybe a few upper  60s in higher towns north and some remote areas of the Northeast Kingdom

SATURDAY

A beauty! After a cool start with readings in the low 50s at dawn, we should see sunshine with highs in the 70s. Rock bottom humidity, too

SUNDAY

Some changes to the previous forecast, as it might not be as nice as we initially hoped.  Another disturbance in the fast west to east flow looks like it could spread some rain and showers our way. Southern Vermont in particular might see a good soaking rain, which would be great since they've mostly been missing out on the showers and storms lately. They could really use the rain.

The path and orientation of this weather system is still in question, so expect some changes to the forecast. 

Much Of Nation So Rainy That Widespread Flood Risks This Week. In Vermont, Not So Much

A torrential downpour in Colchester this past Saturday.
Despite that spot of super wet weather for an hour or'
so, Vermont is starting to get a little dry, but we're'
so far not plunging into a dangerous drought like
we did at this time last year. 

 It'll be a super rainy week in much of the United States this week, with flood potential cropping up in huge areas of the Lower 48. 

Today it's the Ohio Valley and southern Arizona. Tomorrow, it's the same places, plus the central Appalachians, with West Virginia particularly in the cross hairs. Wednesday, same places, same risk. 

Thursday, it's a huge area covering the eastern Rocky Mountains and a wide stripe from Iowa to West Virginia (again!), 

Unfortunately, Washington, Oregon and much of British Columbia, ablaze with wildfires, can expect little or no rain for at least the next week. 

Here in Vermont, NOAA has us in a marginal risk of a flash flood tonight in case we have locally heavy downpours, but the risk looks really, really low. 

I'm not hoping for any floods here in Vermont. Gawd knows we've had enough of that in recent years. But with the notably exception of the Burlington area and parts of Addison County, rainfall has been lacking lately.

Dryish areas are close to those few soggy areas. For instance, Burlington has had a healthy 2.69 inches of rain so far this month. Meanwhile, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, maybe just 30 miles north of Burlington, has had just 0.91 inches,

We're definitely not falling into a dangerous, deep drought like we were at this time last year. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, only the tiniest sliver of Vermont right along the Massachusetts border was considered abnormally dry during July and the first week of August. 

Abnormally dry is a level that's a precursor to drought, though not actually in one. 

Last week's report introduced a new "abnormally dry" region covering most of the Northeast Kingdom. 

As I mentioned above, some rain is in the forecast, but the deep moisture that we had in place late last week and over the weekend is mostly gone. That means super soakers of rain are less likely. 

For now, we're going to see quick-hitting weather systems that will provide some rain. Unless things change, though, I don't see any widespread drenching rains in our immediate future.

As always, here are the details: 

TODAY

The next weather front is on its way for an arrival later today into tonight. That will bring our next round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Before we get there, highs today under partly cloudy skies should get to near 80 degrees. You'll notice the humidity creeping up again, though it won't be as bad as it was Friday and Saturday.

Though some locally heavy downpours are possible tonight, most areas won't see all that much rain. 

Amounts will be highly variable as they always are with summertime cold fronts. But in general, it looks like areas north of Route 2 might see a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a trace to a quarter inch further south. Again with localized exceptions. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

Nice late summer weather after lingering showers clear out early Tuesday. Both days will feature sunny afternoons with reasonably low humidity levels. Not rock bottom, but close enough. Highs should get up to somewhere in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Tuesday night will be our firs real ahhhhh night in awhile, as lows will drop into the 50s,

THURSDAY

The next quick cold front come through. It looks like a fairly lengthy stretch of shower risks from Wednesday night through Friday morning. However, with the exception of locally heavy downpours, so far, this rainfall also looks unimpressive. Stay tuned on that in case there are any changes. Could be, as there's a chance this system could grab better moisture. So far, though, I'm pessimistic on a soaker.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Once we get this far ahead of ourselves, take forecasts with not a grain of salt, but with a great big hunk of frozen together rock salt. But as it stands now, we have a shot at some delightful weather, with just a hint of autumn. 

Daytime highs under (cross your fingers) sunny skies would stay in the 70s. Nighttime lows would be within a few degrees either side of 50, so definitely some great sleeping weather. 

REST OF THE MONTH

So far, there's not many signs of weather excitement for us, but those kinds of things can emerge as we get closer to specific events. For now, it looks like we'll stay in a pretty fast west to east wind flow. That means frequent but not huge shifts in the weather. Under this scenario, we'd have occasional quick hits of showers interspersed with sunny periods that are neither particularly hot or cool for this time of year.

Since summer isn't quite over, there might be a very warm, humid day or two thrown into the mix, but nothing too scary. 

Rain Oddly Lacking In Vermont's "Florida Weather" Spell; Gradual Trend To Big, Long Cooldown Starts In Upcoming Week

Chaotic looking sky over St. Albans, Vermont early
last evening as showers and storms tried to develop
over New York state. By the time the showers or
their remnants reached Vermont later in the
evening, most of us got very little rain. 

 It's really sticky out there again as we wake up this Saturday morning, but the end is in sight. It will be a gradual trend toward cooler, less humid air but we'll get there. More on that in a bit. 

One thing that's sort of surprising me about this spell of super humid air is the lack of rainfall in most places. I tend to associated such high humidity with lots of downpours and even flash flooding. 

A few places have experience just that, but the majority of us so far haven't. 

For instance, through around mid-morning yesterday, most places in Vermont had received less than a quarter inch of rain. 

Many places had nothing. There were just a few exceptions to that. Shoreham was drenched with 2.4 inches of rain in the 24 hours ending midmorning Friday. 

The widely scattered towns of Shelburne, Orwell and West Rutland picked up about an inch during that time. t 

More showers and storms formed yesterday afternoon and last night, but they also didn't wet down all that many people.

Overnight, the National Weather Service office in Burlington saw fit to issue a flash flood warning for an area on the New York side of Lake Champlain due to slow moving downpours. This was in a zone generally encompassing Elizabethtown, Westport, Essex, Moriah, Willsboro and Keene. 

Burlington is just about the only major town or city in Vermont that has made out well with the rain. They've had an inch of rain since Thursday. Here in St. Albans, we've at least had some wetting, but not much. We had just 0.12 inches overnight for a two-day total of right around a quarter inch. I'll still have to keep the sprinklers handy, even if there is more rain in the forecast. 

The same state of affairs with scattered showers and storms will continue today. Many of us could get a little wet, but probably only a small number of us will get thoroughly drenched. The details:

TODAY

Whatever overnight rain we did receive had mostly moved out. as of 8 a.m. today. Some showers were lingering in the Northeast Kingdom. 

More scattered downpours had already gotten going in central New York and those might head toward central Vermont, if they hold together, Which is iffy. More showers and storms will develop in the horribly humid air this afternoon and evening. 

As always, it's hard to say exactly who gets the storms. Though there are some tentative indications that central Vermont has the best chance, we'll see. The showers and storms won't be moving all that quickly.  So there's a minimal risk that a handful of places could see some very local flash flood issues if a downpour stalls overhead,  No guarantee, but it's slightly possible.  

In any event, all of us will continue to wilt in high humidity today. Highs should make it back into the low and mid 80s. Maybe some isolated upper 80s where it doesn't rain, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

Tonight will remain humid with patches of fog forming. Some lingering widely scattered showers could linger well into the night.

SUNDAY

Actually, not terrible. Pretty darn good, in fact! After a risk of early morning showers, skies should become at least partly sunny. The humidity will be down, too. It won't exactly be refreshing, but it will feel only a little on the sticky side. Highs should get well into the 80s again. Winds will he on the light side, so we should have a decent beach and boating day. 

MONDAY

The shift in the weather pattern will be beginning, but we won't quite feel it yet on Monday. An approaching cold front will gradually cloud up our skies. Humidity will rise again, but not quite to the level we saw in the past couple of days. 

We'll have a rising chance of shower and maybe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with highs in the 80s.

TUESDAY

This will be our first step down as we enter a cooling trend that will also gradually lower our humidity levels. Dew points should be in the low 60s again by afternoon, which isn't terrible. Highs will be seasonably near 80 under what we think will be partly sunny skies.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY

A series of weather disturbance will zip through in a fast west to east flow. Each one of these will bring our temperatures down a couple notches. Since these disturbances will be moving fast and we'll be out of the super humid air, we probably won't get all that much rain. 

By the end of the week and into next weekend, we'll be seeing daytime highs in the 70s and lows probably in the mid and upper 50s. That's actually a little cooler than average for mid-August. 

With the usual caveat that long range forecast can change, I really don't see any signs of more heat and humidity until at least the last week of August. Maybe beyond that, who knows. Could this be the end of summer? 

The answer is probably not. But after this weekend, I think we might be passing the peak risk of heat and humidity for the summer. We've actually entered solar autumn. The 25 percent of the year with strongest sun and longest daylights ended earlier this week. That puts us in "solar autumn" the 25 percent of the year when daylight shortens the quickest.  

However, in our topsy-turvy climate changed and El Nino world we're in now, we could still see some torrid weather in September. It's just that the chances of that happening are diminishing.