Showery Vermont Sunday, Might Be Thundery Depending On The Atmosphere. So-so Weather To Start The Week

A hibiscus flower on my back deck blooms amid the
very steady temperatures we've had this month so far.

We had another nice comfortable day in Vermont Saturday, though, as expected it was nicer the further north and west you went. 

Skies were mostly sunny in the far northwest, but rather cloudy southeast. High were in the 70s to a couple 80 degree readings in the sunshine northwest. 

Today will not be so nice with showers and maybe a strong thunderstorm or two. More on that in a minute, but first, some weird Vermont climatology. 

Yesterday's highs spotlighted a remarkable steady trend in temperatures. In the twelve days since August 10 daily high temperatures have ranged only between 73 and 82 degrees, as measured in Burlington.  In that respect I guess you can call our recent weather boring. Especially since those temperatures are close to normal. 

WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consul recently noted on Facebook that this is the time of year that normally has the least day-to-day variation in temperature. Average is four or five degrees difference in temperature day to day in August. 

But this stretch has been much more than that, with just nine degrees difference over 12 days. The same period last year had high temperatures ranging between 70 and 98 degrees. So things aren't always this steady in August.  

I think the lack of variety in temperatures stems from the fact it's still summer. We don't yet have the powerful cold and warm fronts that make Vermont days wildly different between, say, Monday and Tuesday. 

Also, ground and water temperatures are near their peak this time of year, and that tends to moderate the temperature.

Remarkably, over the coming seven days, the National Weather Service says afternoon highs will remain almost within the range we've had for nearly two weeks now. Between now and next Saturday, daily highs in Burlington are forecast to range between 75 to 84.

For now, then, if you don't like the weather in Vermont, you have to wait much more than a minute for it to change. 

Unless you're talking about cloud cover and rainfall. For the next week or so, expect rain to pop up randomly from time to time. The sun will be in and out of the clouds. Here are the details. 

TODAY

Kind of a confusing day in the weather department. Here's why: Virtually everyone in Vermont should get rain today, but most of us won't see much of it. But a few places could have some heavy downpours. 

There's also mixed signals on whether any thunderstorms this afternoon and evening might get strong or not. 

As forecast, a storm is going by to our west, taking most of its heavy rain with it. But that storm is swinging a weather front our way. It'll come at us from the west. 

The timing is such that the best chance of showers and storms would be in the afternoon and early evening. That's the time of day with peak heating, which is great if you want strong storms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk - level 1 of 5 alert level - for severe storms. That would mean there would be a couple isolated incidents of severe weather in Vermont, but most of us will be fine. 

If any severe weather does get going in Vermont today, it would take the form of very local areas of damaging winds or hail.

Complicating the forecast is some showers this morning. Those showers were working their way northward through Vermont this morning. The patchy morning rain and overcast might be enough to squelch instability in the atmosphere. That, it turn would prevent most thunderstorms from forming. 

We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out, I guess. It won't rain all day, so you can get outside. If you are outdoors, especially on the lakes, head inside if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, or if you get a weather warning or special weather statement.

Highs today will once again be in the 70s to near 80, and it will feel a bit more humid than it's been

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Weak low pressure spinning in Quebec should keep clouds and the risk of mostly light showers going both days. In a flip flop from Saturday, southern Vermont valleys should see the best weather with more sunshine and a much lower chance of showers. 

Northern Vermont, especially in the Green Mountains, will see more clouds and a better chance of showers. Those areas could pick up another quarter to a third of an inch of rain. Not all that much, but anything is helpful while we await a soaking rain that's still not in the forecast.

Highs both days should be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

At the point, it's looking like a return to nice weather. Warm, too with highs in many places getting to 80 degrees. Thursday's forecast high in Burlington is 84, which isn't that wild for this time of year, but it would still be the hottest day since August 9.

The warmth on Thursday might be tempered by clouds arriving from the next weather system, so we'll see.

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

Another batch of showers looks to come through Friday. Those could linger into Saturday. So far, this systems does not look impressive

 

Today Is Another Nice Vermont Summer Day. Tomorrow Brings Showers, But Probably Not Enough

A pot of flowers enjoys this morning's sunshine in 
St. Albans, Vermont. We've been watering these
plants since  not enough rain has been falling from
the sky. A little rain is forecast tomorrow

 We promised a perfect Friday weather day and that is what we got. 

Nothing was wrong. Temperatures were perfect, skies were blue with just a few puffy clouds. And somehow, despite all the wildfires burning out West and in Canada, there was no smoky haze in the atmosphere. 

The weather for the weekend won't be as nice as yesterday. But the rest of today should be OK, and Sunday probably won't be a complete washout. 

I had a late night, so I'm doing my morning report really late so, let's get into it

REST OF TODAY

Sunshine should  generally hang on, as forecasters have delayed an expected increase in clouds. Some clouds will work in during the afternoon, but it should remain a nice one. Judging from this morning's satellite photos, southeast Vermont will likely have more clouds that the northwest part of the state. 

High temperatures should be within a few degrees either side of 80. 

SUNDAY

We're still lookin at two storms going past us, one to the east, one to the west. The weak coastal storm to the east will take almost all of its rain through eastern New England. The storm to the west, moving into Quebec, will take most of its rain through western New York and on toward Ottawa and north of that.

That western storm should swing a weather front toward us, leaving mixed opinions on how that will affect Vermont weather. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says instability in the atmosphere will be pretty lame, so if any thunderstorms do manage to get going they won't be particularly intense

Meanwhile,  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning there could be an isolated storm or two that could produce damaging winds. Severe weather under this scenario wouldn't be widespread, but there could be a trouble spot or two

In any event, most of us won't get that much rain tomorrow afternoon and evening. Except for places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm, we should expect a quarter inch of rain or less.

High temperature should get into the 70s and low 80s, and it'll feel little more humid than it's been lately. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

The storm, such as it is, will swirl up on Quebec for a couple days, sending somewhat cool breezes and some moisture our way. That means partly to mostly cloudy skies and showers. Those showers should be few and far between in southern valleys, but pretty frequent far north and in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

The showers won't be particularly heavy. Northern areas might pick up another quarter inch of rain, while southern spots will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less. We could use much more rain than that, but I don't see any real soakers on the horizon. 

Vermont Continues To Be Blessed By Great Late Summer Weather, But Rain Would Still Be Nice

A storm looms north of St. Albans, Vermont late yesterday
afternoon. Only a few places in far northern Vermont 
got some rain yesterday. 
Photo by Jeff Modereger.

As expected, any showers and storms pretty much stayed near the Canadian border yesterday and last night. 

One downpour just missed my house in St. Albans, Vermont during the late afternoon, which is too bad, because now I have to rig up the hoses to water the gardens. 

Especially since no rain is anticipated until Sunday, and that rain at this point does not look impressive. 

Other showers and isolated thunderstorms ran right along the Canadian border in New York and northwest Vermont late in the evening.  But again, most of us missed out.  On the bright side there was no severe weather. 

As always, let's get into the Vermont dailies

TODAY

We started out this morning with comfortable temperatures in the 50s, with the usual patches of early morning fog, especially in the river valleys. Otherwise, the mostly clear skies we're starting out with today will become more cloudy by afternoon. Mostly high clouds, especially north. 

The weather system that caused renewed flooding in Indiana and Ohio yesterday and last night is passing to our south, and that's what's throwing the clouds our way. There's a slight chance of light showers near the Massachusetts border this evening. But nothing major.

FRIDAY

Friday still looks like the pick of the week. After another comfortable dawn with those patchy areas of fog again, we'l have sunny skies, low humidity, with highs in the 70s to near 80. Can't get much better than that. 

SATURDAY

We continue the trend we've had this summer of nice Saturdays, at least in northern Vermont. More morning fog, then sunshine, highs again in the 75 to 82 degree range. Some clouds might increase in the afternoon.

Further south, the clouds will probably come in on Saturday sooner than in the north, and there could be some afternoon showers. So head north if you want the nicest weather. 

SUNDAY

There is a chance of showers, but Vermont might get cheated out on soaking rains. At this point, it looks like one storm will take some decent rains northward through western and central New York and into western Quebec.

Another little coastal low looks like it will bring another batch of heavy rain, or at least heavy-ish rain northward through the eastern half of New England. 

Vermont will be in the middle, with much less rain. There's still a chance things could rearrange themselves so that the rain comes down a little harder, a little more beneficial. 

It should be warm, with highs in the low 80s. It will also be a little warm humid.

MONDAY

Cooler, with a risk of remaining showers. Not sure how cool yet, but it could be another hint of autumn. 

Mostly Quiet Vermont Week Continues, Possible Storms Northwest This Afternoon; Weekend Rain Questions

I had a dream last night that Vermont was raked by
extreme tornadoes, like the one pictured, along
with extreme floods and August snow. Happily
for all of us, we're in the midst of a relatively
uneventful weather week. Though there could
be a few storms north late today. 

 The fog was a little slow to clear in some areas of Vermont yesterday, but it did clear, leading to a partly cloudy, seasonable day. Hope you enjoyed it!

Since we don't have much weather excitement, I have to tell you about one of my strange dreams last night. (I have vivid, weird dreams on a nightly basis).

In the dream, El Nino triggered a massive, unprecedented late August storm in the Northeast. 

Everybody in New England, including here in Vermont,  was told to expect a swarm of powerful EF-5 tornadoes, followed by hurricane force winds, rains that would cause epic floods followed by several inches of August snow. 

I'm extremely happy to report that I guarantee we won't see anything dramatic like that this week. Or any week. Sure, climate change and El Nino are making weather more extreme, but nothing like that!

Instead, were happily stuck with a week of fairly nice, mostly uneventful
weather, but with a few hiccups here and there. 

The first hiccup is today.

REST OF TODAY

We are still expecting that dying cold front to make its way toward us this afternoon, from the northwest. 

I'm a little gun shy now when I bring up a chance of thunderstorms. After last week, when it seemed any little thunderstorm would blow up into something severe, I don't want to relax too much about the chances of high winds or other problems with any thunderstorms. 

That said, the deck is stacked against severe weather. As this morning's National Weather Service forecast discussion points out, there is some wind aloft that thunderstorms could potentially use to create gusty winds down here where we live. But a lack of instability, dry air aloft and some showers in Quebec this morning will all work against any storms taking advantage of those winds aloft. 

To quote the National Weather Service/South Burlington office: "Strong to severe storms are not likely today, but cannot be completely ruled out."

Sigh.

If any storms happen, they're most likely in northern New York and the far northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. Even those late afternoon and evening showers and storms will be hit and miss, so not everybody in this zone will get wet.

The further south you go, the less chance of rain. Everybody, or almost everybody in southern Vermont gets nothing. Overall, it'll be a typical August day, with highs near 80 degrees with moderate humidity.

THURSDAY

There might be some clouds around in the afternoon, but overall it'll be a nice day, as highs get well into the 70s. There could be a sprinkle over the northern mountains and Northeast Kingdom, but it won't be nearly enough to ruin this cool-ish August day.

FRIDAY

We'll be off to a cool start with patchy early morning fog.  Most places will be in the low 50s as dawn breaks, with the chillier valleys in the upper 40s. The fog will burn off to reveal the pick of the weather week, Highs will reach the 70s to near 80 under sunny skies and low humidity.

SATURDAY

Another nice one, as it looks now. Sunshine, with maybe some afternoon clouds It'll be up near 80 degrees.

SUNDAY

The next weather system arrives. It looks like the day might be showery, especially later on. But the amount and location of the rain, along with the timing of it, are still in the iffy stage. However, this doesn't look like a serious, scary storm at this point

 

Another Foggy Vermont Morning; Rest Of Week Looks Quiet

The sky looked ominous over St. Albans, Vermont 
yesterday, but nothing much came of it. Very
little rain fell in most of the state, except
for a few places in Addison and Orange counties, 

As usual, there were winners and losers with the rain Sunday night and Monday, but mostly losers. 

The majority of us got less than a quarter inch of rain, with some people getting scarcely anything at all. Burlington reported just 0.08 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge here in St. Albans saw 0.11 inches. 

However, the weak cold front yesterday slowed to a crawl or even stalled across central Vermont yesterday afternoon and evening, so rain became generous in parts of that region. Sections of Addison County had over an inch of rain.

Parts of Orange County came in with the big win. Corinth reported a whopping 2.6 inches of rain and Newbury had about two inches. 

The lingering humidity, the rain showers, and last night's calm winds left us with another early morning of dense fog across Vermont. That will have lifted or be in the process of doing so by the time you read this.  Though a few places will take time to lose the low clouds and fog, and it could take until mid -morning to clear in some spots.

It'll be a quiet week as subtle signs of autumn begin to emerge. The swamp maples look reddish. Some sugar maples with salt damage near busy roads are sporting colorful leaves. Backyard gardens are starting to look ragged.

And it will be another week in the air will certainly feel summery and warm  enough. But most nights will be somewhat cool. Nights are longer now, so there's more time for the temperature to drop.

Early morning's patchy fog, itself a sign of autumn will be a risk many mornings. It's still summer, but it's beginning to fade. 

The details:

TODAY

After the fog disappears, the day will be decent. Partly sunny, highs near 80 with moderate humidity. The dew point will be in the low 60s, so you might feel just the slightest feeling of stickiness to the air. I suppose there's an outside chance of a brief shower over the mountains and in eastern Vermont but the vast majority of us should stay dry.  

WEDNESDAY

After a comfortable sleeping night, sunshine should boost us back to near 80 degrees by afternoon, says the National Weather Service. Those meteorologists are still watching a dying cold front that will be approaching us from the northwest in the afternoon and evening. 

That front could set off some showers and maybe a few garden variety thunderstorms in northwestern Vermont. Those showers are likely in the far northwest, with hit and miss chances in the rest of northwest half of the state. Areas to the south and east should get nothing. 

Those who do get rain won't get much, except for maybe one or two towns far northwest that get a real thunderstorm.  This front looks like a nothing burger as it washes out and dies overhead Wednesday night. So sad. 

THURSDAY-SATURDAY

Fingers crossed we have a gorgeous stretch of weather coming this way. Skies should be generally sunny, though a few clouds and isolated showers might linger on Thursday and skies could start to cloud up a bit Saturday afternoon Also, that patchy early morning dense fog might be back, too.

But the humidity will be low. Mornings will start out in the comfortable 50s and end up near 80 again in the afternoon each day. Late August can be a slightly warmer version of the pleasantness of September, and it looks like we'll have an example here. 

SUNDAY-MONDAY

The rain risks returns on these days, but it's still anyone's guess on how much we get and who gets the most. 

Last Night's Vermont Predicted Rainfall Was A Bust, Some Showers Today, Pretty Nice Week Ahead

A sign that summer is ending The hydrangea flowers 
in my backyard are fading to pink and russet,
which is what normally happens as we head through
August and move toward September. 

A couple days ago, meteorologists all thought Vermont was in for a a good soaking rain that would have hit last night. 

So much for that. 

The forecast evolved so that newer forecasts had only northern Vermont receiving good rains. In turns out, the rain real rain stayed mostly in Quebec. Only light showers passed through the Green Mountain State. 

We've had a lot of surprises in the weather department lately. Those intense storms in northwest Vermont a week ago was the worst surprise.

I'm suspicious. I know National Weather Service meteorologists are top rate, dedicated and do the best job they can. 

My suspicious continues to be the infamous DOGE cutbacks at the National Weather Service. Those cutbacks have probably degraded the weather data meteorologists use to make their forecasts. Garbage in, garbage out. 

This is my suspicion. I have no proof. I'm hoping somebody out there is studying this, so that everybody knows the Trump administration does not care about Americans' weather safety. 

Soapbox done, on with an attempt to describe what comes next.

REST OF TODAY

It looks like a broken line of showers will start to develop along and ahead of a weak cold front sometime late this morning or around noon in northwest Vermont. Those showers will gradually strengthen. Some will become thunderstorms.

They'll probably reach peak strength roughly along a broad, fat line running between Middlebury and St Johnsbury. They won't be severe, though some could get fairly strong in the southern Champlain Valley.  This should happen around the mid and late afternoon and continue into the early evening as they head toward Rutland and White River Junction. 

After that, as the showers slowly head southeast, they'll begin to weaken. 

Rainfall in Vermont will be super variable, as they always are with summer showers and thunderstorms. a few lucky places will collect an inch of rain. Many places will see only maybe a quarter inch. It looks like some places in far northwest and in southeast Vermont might get very little rain. 

While all this is going on, the rest of today will be a muggy, but not super hot, because of the clouds. The dew point will rise to near 70 degrees, which is pretty ugly in terms of humidity. 

TOMORROW

Our cold front, it you can call it that, is really weak. So, unlike late last week, we're not going to see a huge shift in the weather. Tomorrow will be less humid, but not exactly super refreshing. It'll be kinda humid, but not terrible. Mediocre for August. 

But it will get at least partly sunny, with highs near 80 degrees, so not a bad day. 

WEDNESDAY

Another cold front will approach, but it's another lame one, and it will probably fall apart as it comes through, or at least shortly after it comes through. It'll have enough oomph to set off some showers, especially in New York and maybe western Vermont. Since the front will be falling apart, showers are less likely further east.

This is a preliminary look. Things could change with this, but we're not expecting anything dramatic. It'll still be somewhat humid, with highs again near 80.

LATE WEEK

Despite the lame nature of the cold front, it should turn less humid, definitely in the pleasant range. If this forecast works out, it'll be a nice end to the week, with highs near 80 and lows comfortably in the 50s. 

Summer is fading, as no hot spell are in the forecast. The chances of more 90 degree days are still real, but those chances are fading. 

 

Hint Of Autumn In Vermont. Next Up: Upcoming Rain Not As Big A Soaker As Previously Hoped

Yesterday was the first day this season that really felt like autumn was coming. 

Expected rainfall through Monday night. Decent rains
are forecast in the Northeast Kingdom, with lesser 
amounts south. Severe weather is unlikely, we hope!

Thanks in part to extra clouds during part of the day, and also some steady north winds, Saturday was a little cooler than forecast. In Burlington, we had the coolest average temperature since June 7. The temperature barely made it to 70 degrees in Montpelier and Newport. 

At dawn today, it was in the 40s statewide, except for a few low 50s near Lake Champlain. It will get a little warmer this week, but full summertime heat looks fleeting, at least for now. Let's get into it.

TODAY

There were already high clouds mixed with some wildfire smoke aloft, overhead early this morning in northern Vermont, while southern Vermont remained clear. I think northern Vermont might tend to temporarily clear out, and then clouds, and maybe a little smoke aloft will start to return this afternoon. 

The smoke is not near the surface,  so there won't be any air quality problems. Rainfall has been postponed again, so you'll have a dry day for outdoor activities. It will also be a little warmer than yesterday, as we get into the  upper 70s, give or take.

TONIGHT

It's still going to rain, later tonight, but not as much as we first hoped. There could still be some decent rains in the Northeast Kingdom, which is good because they need the rain more than other parts of the state. Up there, current forecasts give them a half to an inch of rain. 

The rest of us are in line for a tenth to a half inch of rain tonight through Monday. So nothing huge, but still, pretty decent. The northern Champlain Valley should have a little more than in southern Vermont. 

MONDAY

The rain won't be over as a cold front slowly makes its way toward Vermont.  It'll be a humid Monday quite a switch from the last few days. Dew points could get as high as 70s degrees, which is oppressive as hell.

Showers could break out at any time, most likely in the afternoon. There could be some thunderstorms, too, especially in western Vermont south of Burlington, as it looks now.  Meteorologists don't think we face more severe storms, but we'll have to watch western Vermont for an isolated strong storm or two. 

TUESDAY

A decent day. Sunshine, with lower humidity. Much better than Monday will be, but not rock bottom humidity like we expect on Monday.  Highs should get up to within a few degrees either side of 80.

REST OF WEEK

Another front should arrive Wednesday and Wednesday evening with showers and possible thunderstorms. So far, I'm not too impressed by this weather system, but we'll see how it plays out. We might  have some showers lingering into Thursday, but again, no big deal. 

Another round of nice late summer weather should return by late in the week. But remember, forecasts several days out are subject to big time revisions. Don't start planning your outdoor events for next weekend just yet.  

Vermont Avoiding Midwest Weather Chaos, Though A Few Storms Could Rumble Through Here Today, Tomorrow

Damage from severe weather in Tinley Park, Illinois on
Tuesday. Photo via Facebook, Midwest/Great Lakes
Storm Chasers

 Midwestern storms - likely a derecho - yesterday made the violent storms that hit Franklin County, Vermont on Monday evening look like a pleasant summertime sun shower. 

The Midwestern storms caused at least three deaths, and I predict this will be another billion dollar disaster for the U.S. 

Intense thunderstorm winds swept from Iowa to West Virginia. At least six tornadoes were reported and more will emerge as National Weather Service meteorologists investigate the carnage today. Two tornadoes struck suburban Chicago, an area that has been especially raked by severe storms and tornadoes this summer.

The National Weather Service had at least 723 reports of powerful thunderstorm winds. Straight line winds gusted to over 90 mph in several Illinois towns. 

In Portage, Illinois, a house exploded because of weather related causes, killing a person there. Police officers responding to the explosion had to walk a mile to the house because fallen trees made all streets in accessible. 

There's no rest for the Midwestern weary.  Severe thunderstorms are likely today in a broad band from South Dakota and Nebraska to Indiana and Kentucky. Flash flooding is also a good bet in large parts of the Midwest over the next four days. 

Here in Vermont, we're going to just mostly watch all this from the sidelines. But we will have some showers and thunderstorms to harass us for the next couple of days. 

TODAY

Not quite as nice a Wednesday as we thought yesterday, but still pretty good. It'll be partly sunny with temperatures peaking at around 80 degrees. It's now looking like we'll have some hit and miss shower and thunderstorms across central and northern Vermont this evening. At this point it looks like maybe only 50 percent of us get wet. 

Even better: So far at least, these storms don't look l like they'll be strong. We're definitely hoping for no more surprises like we saw Monday evening. 

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT

More showers and storms are likely during Thursday and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches. Many places won't have thunder at all, or if they do, it'll be just a couple of rumbles. There's still a chance one or two storms could be strong north of Route 2, but that's really iffy. Shower chances are lower in southern Vermont. 

By the way, we're starting to get out of the season in which severe thunderstorms are most likely. Severe storm season, such as it is in Vermont is usually from around Memorial Day to early August. We can still get severe thunderstorms into September, but the chances of that happening are now much lower than they were at the peak of summer. 

FRIDAY

The first hint of autumn of the season. Well see brisk northwest winds and partly sunny skies. There could be some brief light showers over the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. Highs should reach the 70s, with maybe a few upper  60s in higher towns north and some remote areas of the Northeast Kingdom

SATURDAY

A beauty! After a cool start with readings in the low 50s at dawn, we should see sunshine with highs in the 70s. Rock bottom humidity, too

SUNDAY

Some changes to the previous forecast, as it might not be as nice as we initially hoped.  Another disturbance in the fast west to east flow looks like it could spread some rain and showers our way. Southern Vermont in particular might see a good soaking rain, which would be great since they've mostly been missing out on the showers and storms lately. They could really use the rain.

The path and orientation of this weather system is still in question, so expect some changes to the forecast. 

Much Of Nation So Rainy That Widespread Flood Risks This Week. In Vermont, Not So Much

A torrential downpour in Colchester this past Saturday.
Despite that spot of super wet weather for an hour or'
so, Vermont is starting to get a little dry, but we're'
so far not plunging into a dangerous drought like
we did at this time last year. 

 It'll be a super rainy week in much of the United States this week, with flood potential cropping up in huge areas of the Lower 48. 

Today it's the Ohio Valley and southern Arizona. Tomorrow, it's the same places, plus the central Appalachians, with West Virginia particularly in the cross hairs. Wednesday, same places, same risk. 

Thursday, it's a huge area covering the eastern Rocky Mountains and a wide stripe from Iowa to West Virginia (again!), 

Unfortunately, Washington, Oregon and much of British Columbia, ablaze with wildfires, can expect little or no rain for at least the next week. 

Here in Vermont, NOAA has us in a marginal risk of a flash flood tonight in case we have locally heavy downpours, but the risk looks really, really low. 

I'm not hoping for any floods here in Vermont. Gawd knows we've had enough of that in recent years. But with the notably exception of the Burlington area and parts of Addison County, rainfall has been lacking lately.

Dryish areas are close to those few soggy areas. For instance, Burlington has had a healthy 2.69 inches of rain so far this month. Meanwhile, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, maybe just 30 miles north of Burlington, has had just 0.91 inches,

We're definitely not falling into a dangerous, deep drought like we were at this time last year. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, only the tiniest sliver of Vermont right along the Massachusetts border was considered abnormally dry during July and the first week of August. 

Abnormally dry is a level that's a precursor to drought, though not actually in one. 

Last week's report introduced a new "abnormally dry" region covering most of the Northeast Kingdom. 

As I mentioned above, some rain is in the forecast, but the deep moisture that we had in place late last week and over the weekend is mostly gone. That means super soakers of rain are less likely. 

For now, we're going to see quick-hitting weather systems that will provide some rain. Unless things change, though, I don't see any widespread drenching rains in our immediate future.

As always, here are the details: 

TODAY

The next weather front is on its way for an arrival later today into tonight. That will bring our next round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Before we get there, highs today under partly cloudy skies should get to near 80 degrees. You'll notice the humidity creeping up again, though it won't be as bad as it was Friday and Saturday.

Though some locally heavy downpours are possible tonight, most areas won't see all that much rain. 

Amounts will be highly variable as they always are with summertime cold fronts. But in general, it looks like areas north of Route 2 might see a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a trace to a quarter inch further south. Again with localized exceptions. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

Nice late summer weather after lingering showers clear out early Tuesday. Both days will feature sunny afternoons with reasonably low humidity levels. Not rock bottom, but close enough. Highs should get up to somewhere in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Tuesday night will be our firs real ahhhhh night in awhile, as lows will drop into the 50s,

THURSDAY

The next quick cold front come through. It looks like a fairly lengthy stretch of shower risks from Wednesday night through Friday morning. However, with the exception of locally heavy downpours, so far, this rainfall also looks unimpressive. Stay tuned on that in case there are any changes. Could be, as there's a chance this system could grab better moisture. So far, though, I'm pessimistic on a soaker.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Once we get this far ahead of ourselves, take forecasts with not a grain of salt, but with a great big hunk of frozen together rock salt. But as it stands now, we have a shot at some delightful weather, with just a hint of autumn. 

Daytime highs under (cross your fingers) sunny skies would stay in the 70s. Nighttime lows would be within a few degrees either side of 50, so definitely some great sleeping weather. 

REST OF THE MONTH

So far, there's not many signs of weather excitement for us, but those kinds of things can emerge as we get closer to specific events. For now, it looks like we'll stay in a pretty fast west to east wind flow. That means frequent but not huge shifts in the weather. Under this scenario, we'd have occasional quick hits of showers interspersed with sunny periods that are neither particularly hot or cool for this time of year.

Since summer isn't quite over, there might be a very warm, humid day or two thrown into the mix, but nothing too scary. 

Rain Oddly Lacking In Vermont's "Florida Weather" Spell; Gradual Trend To Big, Long Cooldown Starts In Upcoming Week

Chaotic looking sky over St. Albans, Vermont early
last evening as showers and storms tried to develop
over New York state. By the time the showers or
their remnants reached Vermont later in the
evening, most of us got very little rain. 

 It's really sticky out there again as we wake up this Saturday morning, but the end is in sight. It will be a gradual trend toward cooler, less humid air but we'll get there. More on that in a bit. 

One thing that's sort of surprising me about this spell of super humid air is the lack of rainfall in most places. I tend to associated such high humidity with lots of downpours and even flash flooding. 

A few places have experience just that, but the majority of us so far haven't. 

For instance, through around mid-morning yesterday, most places in Vermont had received less than a quarter inch of rain. 

Many places had nothing. There were just a few exceptions to that. Shoreham was drenched with 2.4 inches of rain in the 24 hours ending midmorning Friday. 

The widely scattered towns of Shelburne, Orwell and West Rutland picked up about an inch during that time. t 

More showers and storms formed yesterday afternoon and last night, but they also didn't wet down all that many people.

Overnight, the National Weather Service office in Burlington saw fit to issue a flash flood warning for an area on the New York side of Lake Champlain due to slow moving downpours. This was in a zone generally encompassing Elizabethtown, Westport, Essex, Moriah, Willsboro and Keene. 

Burlington is just about the only major town or city in Vermont that has made out well with the rain. They've had an inch of rain since Thursday. Here in St. Albans, we've at least had some wetting, but not much. We had just 0.12 inches overnight for a two-day total of right around a quarter inch. I'll still have to keep the sprinklers handy, even if there is more rain in the forecast. 

The same state of affairs with scattered showers and storms will continue today. Many of us could get a little wet, but probably only a small number of us will get thoroughly drenched. The details:

TODAY

Whatever overnight rain we did receive had mostly moved out. as of 8 a.m. today. Some showers were lingering in the Northeast Kingdom. 

More scattered downpours had already gotten going in central New York and those might head toward central Vermont, if they hold together, Which is iffy. More showers and storms will develop in the horribly humid air this afternoon and evening. 

As always, it's hard to say exactly who gets the storms. Though there are some tentative indications that central Vermont has the best chance, we'll see. The showers and storms won't be moving all that quickly.  So there's a minimal risk that a handful of places could see some very local flash flood issues if a downpour stalls overhead,  No guarantee, but it's slightly possible.  

In any event, all of us will continue to wilt in high humidity today. Highs should make it back into the low and mid 80s. Maybe some isolated upper 80s where it doesn't rain, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

Tonight will remain humid with patches of fog forming. Some lingering widely scattered showers could linger well into the night.

SUNDAY

Actually, not terrible. Pretty darn good, in fact! After a risk of early morning showers, skies should become at least partly sunny. The humidity will be down, too. It won't exactly be refreshing, but it will feel only a little on the sticky side. Highs should get well into the 80s again. Winds will he on the light side, so we should have a decent beach and boating day. 

MONDAY

The shift in the weather pattern will be beginning, but we won't quite feel it yet on Monday. An approaching cold front will gradually cloud up our skies. Humidity will rise again, but not quite to the level we saw in the past couple of days. 

We'll have a rising chance of shower and maybe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with highs in the 80s.

TUESDAY

This will be our first step down as we enter a cooling trend that will also gradually lower our humidity levels. Dew points should be in the low 60s again by afternoon, which isn't terrible. Highs will be seasonably near 80 under what we think will be partly sunny skies.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY

A series of weather disturbance will zip through in a fast west to east flow. Each one of these will bring our temperatures down a couple notches. Since these disturbances will be moving fast and we'll be out of the super humid air, we probably won't get all that much rain. 

By the end of the week and into next weekend, we'll be seeing daytime highs in the 70s and lows probably in the mid and upper 50s. That's actually a little cooler than average for mid-August. 

With the usual caveat that long range forecast can change, I really don't see any signs of more heat and humidity until at least the last week of August. Maybe beyond that, who knows. Could this be the end of summer? 

The answer is probably not. But after this weekend, I think we might be passing the peak risk of heat and humidity for the summer. We've actually entered solar autumn. The 25 percent of the year with strongest sun and longest daylights ended earlier this week. That puts us in "solar autumn" the 25 percent of the year when daylight shortens the quickest.  

However, in our topsy-turvy climate changed and El Nino world we're in now, we could still see some torrid weather in September. It's just that the chances of that happening are diminishing.  

Friday Vermont Weather Update: The Humidity Keeps Wilting Us

An afternoon thunderstorm darkens the muggy Thursday
afternoon skies looking west from St. Albans. The 
humidity will more or less linger with continued
rain chances into the early week

Well, we survived the first day of our wilting humidity. 

On Thursday, it was actually a little hotter than expected in some areas. Burlington reached 91 degrees, as opposed to the forecast mid to upper 80s. 

It was the tenth time this year it's been 90 degrees.  And, it's the seventh year in a row in which we've had ten 90s in a year. That's unprecedented. Before this run, the most consecutive years with ten 90s was four, back in the 1940s.

OK, enough confusion with number. As expected, there were some showers and thunderstorms around. Burlington made out like a bandit with rainfall, as they received 0.64 inches.   A weakening, but still potent storm was responsible for much of that rain.  

The storm developed in the Adirondacks and blew up on the western shore of Lake Champlain. It looks like a lake breeze hit the storm, creating added lift in the atmosphere, That made the storm  blow up. Somebody on the New York shore probably got quite a storm, though I see no damage reported this morning.

The Burlington area was under a severe thunderstorm watch for a time. But once the storm passed the lake breeze, there was not enough general instability in the air to sustain it. It weakened on its way to and beyond Burlington. 

Elsewhere, while storms weren't severe, heavy rain was reported in parts of Addison County. Otherwise, the rain wasn't too widespread and those that receive rain had light amounts. Here in St. Albans, we picked up just 0.14 inches of rain. 

This morning, we wake to sticky conditions, as planned. Let's go through the daily forecasts to see how we'll get out of this muggy mess. Hint: We might have subtle ever-so-slight breaks in the humidity before the noticeably more comfortable air arrives next week

TODAY

Another awful day, but there are some nice aspects to it. For one, showers and storms are very unlikely because dry air high in the atmosphere will, squelch attempts at any development.

Even better, we might get a few hours of a semi-break from the humidity. During peak heating some of the dry air aloft might briefly mix down to the surface. So instead of dew points in the terrible 70 degree range, they might fall to the low 60s for a few hours. Still a bit humid, but not terrible.

However, the potential, slight lack in humidity, coupled with sunshine, means we'll get well into the 80s today. Once again, a few places could touch 90 degrees.

Tonight, showers will creep in as the humidity rises again. Definitely another uncomfortable sleeping night. 

SATURDAY

A weather disturbance early in the morning, before dawn, will keep showers and thunderstorms going.  Hit and miss generally. But on top of the icky air keeping you up, you might hear the roar of a downpour on the roof or thunder rumbling around before dawn. 

There might be a late morning break in the showers and storms, but they'll redevelop in the afternoon and evening. As usual, all the storms will be hit and miss. None of the storms will be severe, but some will produce torrential downpours. With all that water in the air, that has to happen.

We might see an isolated incidence or two of flash flooding, but the vast majority of us will be fine.  Most of us will see less than a half an inch of rain between now and Saturday night, though, again, a few spots will get much more and a few others will receive much less.

Amid all these rain showers and under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures should still make it up into the low to mid  80s. Which doesn't sound bad until you add in the dew points that will be near 70 degrees. Florida weather continues. I suggest a movie matinee. We're in peak summer blockbuster season, so get thee to an air conditioned cinema.

SUNDAY

We might eke out a decent day. Showers will tend to diminish in the morning, leaving us with just a chance of widely scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. As it looks now most  of us will stay dry and the sun should make an afternoon appearance. Highs should get into the 80s, with a slight drop in humidity. We'll take anything at this point.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

The humidity and shower chances will continue, but we'll be in the process of changing up the weather pattern. The mugginess might not be quite as bad as it's been, and highs should only reach maybe the upper 70s to low 80s. 

MID TO LATE WEEK

The weather will turn seasonable, the humidity levels should fall to completely reasonable levels. We'll still have shower chances as disturbance zip in from the west. Since the humidity will be lower, I'm so far not worried about any heavy rains from those systems. 

Florida Humidity Has Arrive In Vermont. But We Can Already See Signs It Will Eventually End

Early this morning, the sky over St. Albans, Vermont
already had that unstable, humid, hazy look to it as
we begin a long spell of oppressive weather. 

 Well, that humidity blasted in early today, as scheduled. 

As of 10 a.m. dew points around Vermont were in the mid and upper 60s, which is sticky as hell. Over in New York State, a lot of low 70s dew points were popping up. Which is a sign it will get worse before it gets better. 

Regular readers will note that I'm posting my morning report closer to noon today, which is weird. I figured I'd be better off if I did some outdoor physical work that needs to get done early.  I was right, but toward the end I was dying. 

Be careful out there. Limited your activities and drink plenty of fluids. I'm drinking a big-ass bottle of Gatorade as I write this. 

The oppressive, Florida-like weather will stick around for awhile, as we've been saying the past few days. But, to give you a little encouragement, it is August.  This can't last forever. I'll get into that when I get into the daily forecasts below

In any event, there are nicks starting to appear in summer's fortress. It got down to 38 degrees in Hibbing, Minnesota yesterday morning. True, Hibbing is a traditional Minnesota cold spot, but still, I'll take it as a sign o an eventual autumn. 

Out in Denver, they're having a horribly hot summer, but they caught a big, if brief break. They had a record low of 47 degrees yesterday, which came just two days after a record high of 102. So yesterday must have been a relief for them. Unfortunately it's back to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in Denver starting today and going through next Monday. 

Even so, as you can see, we start to see the first subtle hints of summer's eventual fading hold on us. And it does look like cooler, drier air will gradually reach Vermont next week. But careful what you wish for. The weather might seem refreshing later next week. But it will be snowing in three months or less. 

REST OF TODAY

Humid, duh! Since it is so muggy, there's a chance of showers and thunderstorms. They'll be hit or miss, so not all of us will see much relief from the awfulness out there. Those of you who get bullseyed by any storms could see some torrential downpours, since there's so much moisture in the air to work with. 

The best chance of storms would be the northwest half of Vermont, but even there, not everyone will get wet. The showers should be widely scattered at best in southeast Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom. Most of the rain will come after 4 p.m., but a pop up shower could appear at any time. There were a couple small downpours in northern New York already as of 10:30 a.m. 

Other than that, the storms won't become severe or anything like that.

Tonight the showers and storms should die down after sunset, and we're left with a sticky icky night. Hope you have air conditioning! 

FRIDAY:

Despite the Florida air, we probably won't have that much in the way of showers and storms. We'll be between little disturbance bobbing along in the southwest flow of air. All this will make Friday probably the worst day of this oppressive stretch. 

Friday's setup would normally give us temperatures above 90 degrees. But the air will be so wet that most of the sun's energy will go into trying to evaporate the moisture in the atmosphere. But since southwest winds will be pumping in more wet air, the humidity won't go down. 

The result will be dew points in the low 70s with highs well up into the 80s. There's a slight chance one or two towns will hit 90, but I'm not holding my breath. The humidity, though will definitely make it feel like it's in the 90s. 

Make tomorrow a lazy day. Your body will thank you. 

I suppose there's a chance of an isolated shower or storm, but the vast majority of us will be rain-free.

SATURDAY

Just as sticky and awful as Friday. But, there's a much better chance of showers Saturday than there was on Friday. So we might get some vaguely cooling rains from time to time. I think most everyone will see some rain. A few places will get very little, other places will get absolutely soaked with downpours. As is often the case in the summer, it's the luck of the draw.

SUNDAY

The first hints of relief. It should still be humid, but not quite as bad as today and tomorrow and Saturday. There should be a fair amount of sun, with a low risk of showers and storms. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Still muggy, still a risk of showers. But it will be slightly less humid that today and highs will only be in the low 80s. Still bad, but could be worse. Note this forecast is subject to change because it's quite a few days away

LATE NEXT WEEK

For now, forecasts continue to advertise more refreshing air for later in the week. There's still time for that forecast to get messed up, but for now, that's our true light at the end of this oppressive, muggy tunnel 

Clear Skies In Vermont Yield To Long, Humid Spell Of Florida Weather. When Will It End? We Have Clues

A summer rarity. Yesterday afternoon's satellite photo
shows cloudless skies in northern New England, New York
and southern Ontario and Quebec. You see hints of 
wildfire smoke in Quebec. It's rare to see such a huge
area of cloudless skies in the summer. The afternoon
heat usual generates at least a few cumulus clouds

Believe it or not, yesterday was a weird weather day in Vermont.

It didn't seem weird. Just gorgeous. The odd part was the clouds. Or lack thereof. We spent the whole day in the Green Mountain State without a cloud in the sky. There were just the faintest hint of wildfire smoke, but that's it. 

We do have absolutely clear days in the spring and fall. Even, sometimes, in the winter. But cloudless summer skies are rare. There's usually enough lift in the atmosphere created by the heat of the day to generate at least a few puffy clouds over the mountains. 

Yesterday, nothing. No complaints, though it was a glorious summer day. 

Our cloudless days are over, thanks to the well-advertised burst of high humidity coming in starting today and intensifying Thursday. 

That miserable weather looks like it will stay with us until the early part of next week. There is hope, eventually that this will end. Keep reading and we'll tell you when

TODAY

Actually, still not bad. As far as clouds go, there will be some high clouds which will signal the more humid air coming in. And maybe a few puffy cumulus clouds over the mountains. But still, the sunshine will dominate. The humidity will be a higher than yesterday, but still not extreme. Highs in most places should get well into the 80s, so today is a great beach day. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Ugh, High humidity, partly cloudy skies and highs in the 80s.  Since the air will be like what Florida sees in the summer, we'll have Florida weather. That means scattered showers and thunderstorms, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Unlike Florida, Vermont has mountains. The hillsides will create updrafts that will help trigger the storms, so most - but not all - of the activity will be near the mountains. 

Not everybody will see a shower or storm. They will be hit and miss. Those that get hit will see a briefly cooling torrential downpour, but the mugginess will return fast. Unfortunately the nights will be stuffy as hell.

SATURDAY

More ugh.  This could change, but it appear showers and storms might be a little more widespread that the previous days. Dew points will still be in the miserable low 70s. That'll be the third day in a row of that kind of super high humidity, which is very unusual in Vermont. 

SUNDAY

More of the same? Really? Looks that way. If we're lucky, the dew point might drop by a couple points, but it will still remain horribly humid. We also have a shot at a mostly rain-free day, but that's still iffy at this point. 

NEXT WEEK

The week starts with more of the same, but the temperatures might be only near 80, instead of the low 80s. The humidity will still be awful but then --- a change in the weather!!

Signs are pointing toward notably cooler and much less humid air toward the end of next week. And that cooler regime might last quite awhile, if iffy long range forecasts are correct. The weather during that cool down might still be unsettled with a risk of showers. But at least we'll be able to sleep at night for a change. 

Enjoy This Brief Sort Of Coolish Spell In Vermont This Morning; Tropical Week Ahead

Ever so briefly, the sky took on an autumnal look late
yesterday afternoon as a brief cooler, less humid
blast of air took over in Vermont. The rest of the
week will be very warm, with increasing humidity

 It turns out almost everybody got some rain in Vermont yesterday as a solid line of showers and thunderstorms crossed the state yesterday. That was followed by stiff brought stiff breezes made it actually feel cool outside last evening. 

Most places in Vermont were in the 50s this morning, with low 60s in the Champlain Valley. 

As we get through today, this sort of  coolish spell is over, for quite a long time. Let's get into it.

TODAY

The good news is the humidity stays fairly low. So as sunshine boosts temperatures into the 80s, it won't feel too terrible. The dew point, a rough measure of how sticky it feels out there, will hover near  60 degrees. That's not a totally refreshing level, but it will do. 

WEDNESDAY

A little hotter a little more humid. Dew points will be in the low 60s as afternoon temperatures climb well into the 80s. Sunshine will continue, so if you have the opportunity, it's a good beach day. We're into August, so there might not be too many such days left. Leap at this chance for fun in the sun.  Just be sure to OD on the sunscreen, please. 

THURSDAY-FRIDAY

Tropical humidity with a good chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. We'll have to watch on Thursday whether the instability might be robust enough for some strong storms. This will be a winner/loser type situation, as some areas will get drenched by torrential downpours while other areas get little or nothing. 

We might also have to watch out for isolated instances of flash flooding once again, since the storms might not move all that fast. We won't have anything widespread in the high water department, it's just something to watch. 

WEEKEND

Still muggy with a risk of storms. But the weather pattern will have rearranged itself slightly so that we'll be in a battleground between the oppressive Bermuda High and an autumn-ish storm up by Hudson Bay. That means little weather disturbances will fling themselves through New England in a fast flow within this battleground. 

Hard to say when we'll get some rain and storms and when it will be dry. It's also impossible to say how impressive or wimpy the rain an storms will be. For now, file next weekend under he "iffy" category.

NEXT WEEK

It seems like the storm up in Canada might slowly gain more influence over us here in the North Country. If that happens, we'll gradually lose the humidity but will keep the chances of showers going. Hard to say for sure because forecasts beyond five days are often not very accurate. But this attempt at a forecast is your hope we lose all that sticky, gross air that we're going to deal with. 

Expected Overnight Rain Mostly Misses Vermont, Unfortunately. Hit And Miss Stuff Today

Late season day lilies "Country Club" variety, blooms
in St. Albans, Vermont this morning. Most of the
predicted rain avoided us, but there are some chances
of rain today, but it will be hit and miss

  Streaks of heavier rain that swept through New York and New England unfortunately mostly missed Vermont. Which is too bad, because many gardens and crops could have used a good drink.  

A few places got decent rain. Rutland had 0.56 inches through 8 a.m.  Other areas were pathetic. Montpelier has 0.15 inches. Bennington, 0.13 inches, Burlington a mere 0.05 inches. 

Southern and eastern New England grabbed the moisture. Flash flood warnings were up in parts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

So, will it rain today? Maybe, in some places. Let's get into it.

TODAY

We still have shots at getting some rain today, but it will be hit and miss. I'm hoping for more hits than miss. 

The moisture for the rain is certainly there. I'm sure you've noticed the continued humidity out there. A weak cold front is arriving today.  The front is sort of coming through in pieces, as is typical weak summer cold fronts.

That'll generate showers and storms that will cross the state from west to east today. In patches and bunches. There's a chance a couple of the storms could be fairly strong here and there. We'll end up with a patchwork of towns and cities that ended up getting a nice drink of water from the skies, while people in other towns watch the dark clouds bypass them. 

They'll be sweating as they do so as the humidity will bypass them, though the air will start to freshen up a little toward evening as the cold front staggers off into eastern New England.  The departure of that cold front means the showers and thunderstorms should be out of Vermont by late afternoon.

A trailing disturbance will probably set off some light showers this evening over northern Vermont, but they won't amount to much. 

TUESDAY

We'll have a brief break from the humidity so enjoy it, as it will be a delightful summer day squeezed in between days of mugginess. It'll be sunny, and highs will get into the 80s. So enjoy the lake, enjoy some hikes, or whatever else you're doing. 

WEDNESDAY

Actually, not bad. The humidity will creep up, but it won't get out of control. The sunshine will continue and highs will go well into the 80s. 

THURSDAY - SUNDAY

A strong Bermuda High off the East Coast still looks like it will dominate our weather. That'll pump the very warm, humid air our way. Even though it will be oppressive, temperatures will struggle to reach 90 degrees. High humidity will absorb the sun's heat, preventing extreme heat. But it won't matter, it'll be uncomfortable as hell.

We'll also have an ever-present chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best shot at seeing thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. They will be hit and miss, so we'll see rainfall winners and losers, as usual. 

Little weather disturbances riding along the muggy southwest flow will provide bursts of more numerous showers and storms, but it's hard to tell this far in advance. 

It's summer. We get this kind of weather, Soon enough we'll be complaining about the cold. Embrace the humidity. 

Flood Threat In Vermont Diminishes For Next Storm, But Does Not Entirely Disappear.

More rain on the way, but it doesn't look like enough
to cause more flooding. Most places should see an
inch or less Sunday night and Monday, though a 
couple places could see locally higher amounts. 

Weather forecasters are a little more relaxed about the chances of flooding with the Sunday night and Monday.  

We're still going to get a bunch of rain Sunday night and Monday. And we hope you like humid weather because we have plenty of it coming up. But overall, we're in the midst of a decent summer weekend. We've been lucky with these weekends. 

REST OF TODAY

A good summer day is underway once again. We've had a lot of Saturdays like this. The sun will be out most of the time. As far as rain goes, there's the slightest of chances of an isolated showers over the mountains, but that's it. 

Highs will top out in the mid-80s for most of us. It is kind of humid out there, but it won't be as oppressive as it could be. 

SUNDAY

We should make it through most of the day without rain or thunderstorms. Especially if you're in the southeastern half of Vermont. A slow moving "cold front" will be coming approaching grudgingly fro the west. A have "cold front" in quotations because it won't really drop our temperatures and the drop in humidity when it eventually comes through will be barely noticeable, 

It will get close enough to set off some scattered showers and non-severe storms late in the afternoon north and west, but not everyone will get wet. It'll be in the 80s again, and you'll notice the humidity getting worse. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

This is when the bulk of the rain and downpours come through.  There had been some concerns that a sluggish, weak but very wet storm would stall nearby, giving parts of our area another drenching and flood, like what happened in New York's Hudson Valley earlier this week, 

Instead, it looks like things will slowly progress through, so that - fingers crossed - it doesn't rain hard enough or long enough to set off any flooding. There's still a chance some locally heavy downpours cause problems, but overall, the chance of anything major look low, 

The rain should be more good than bad.  Some places, especially in the Northeast Kingdom didn't receive all that much rain this past week. As it stands now, it looks like almost everybody in Vermont should receive a decent half inch to an inch, with maybe locally higher amounts. 

I supposed there's a slight chance the forecast could once again flip flop back to a rainier, somewhat more dangerous scenario. So far, I don't see that, but of course, we'll update as necessary.

REST OF NEXT WEEK

The dog days of summer I've been talking about will continue. The weather set up with an offshore Bermuda high means very warm and humid air will keep coming at us. Tuesday will be the nicest day with a slight dip in the humidity and low to no rain chances.

The rest of the week will be partly cloudy, humid, with an ever-present chance of showers and storms. It's hard at this point to pick out which day will be the rainiest. It depends on the location of any little disturbances in that muggy flow of air. 

The clouds and showers should keep us under 90 degrees (with possibly one or two odd exceptions) But the humidity will more than make up for the lack of super hot air. Um, enjoy, I guess?  

A Wet Spell Coming To Vermont: Some Risk Of Flash Flooding; Far North Might Miss Out

National Weather Service forecast map. Through Thursday
morning. If this forecast holds, the southern half of 
Vermont would get more than an inch of rain, with
local amounts much higher. Northern Vermont 
looks like it will get less. 

Today is dawning as it did the past couple of days, sunny, a little hazy from atmospheric wildfire smoke in the air.  

According to WCAX meteorologist Gunnar Consul said that Sunday was the exact midpoint between Burlington's average last and spring snowfall. So, we're in the midsummer doldrums. 

Which means slow moving, sluggish weather systems. 

For most of us, today will be a relatively nice day. But if you were a geek watching weather radar yesterday, you saw some slow moving showers and thunderstorms in the Adirondacks. There's not much motion of the atmosphere so they kind of sat there. 

The same state of affairs will happen today, and that introduces a rainy stretch that will lead to the risk of some localized flooding over the next few days. I'm absolutely not in panic mode like I was before  the big summer floods of 2023 and 2024. 

This episode doesn't look nearly as dire as that, unless there's some incredible surprise all the meteorologists are missing. But be on the lookout for the risk of some local flash flood problems that might erupt between today and Thursday.  

TODAY

The local flash flood risk starts today, almost exclusively in the Adirondacks. And maybe the western side of Lake Champlain in New York. That said, the chances of that happening are low. I just mentioned it because storms that develop won't move much. So they could dump huge amounts of rain in very small, pinpoint areas. That can be dangerous within the steep slopes of the Adirondacks.  

Here in Vermont, we'll watch the storms erupt here and there to our west, on the other side of Lake Champlain. Eventually, later this afternoon and early evening, a few showers or storms will erupt in Vermont, too. Most of us will stay dry and enjoy a nice day. Maybe 30 percent of us will get some rain by sunset. 

Because storms will be few and far between, it will get well into the 80s again today. 

TUESDAY

A much better chance of showers and thunderstorms, at least in the western half of the area. The disturbance causing the showery weather will have moved only slightly east. 

So there's an excellent chance of rain in southwest Vermont and New York. Much of central Vermont and the Champlain Valley has a very good chance of showers and storms. Again, since all the showers and storm will be moving very slowly, and some will contain torrential downpours.  All but the far Northeast Kingdom is under a marginal, level one of four risk of local flash floods. 

Northeastern Vermont should get through the day with just widely scattered showers and storms, so there risk os lover there. 

Again, this won't be a widespread problem. Since there will be sunshine, too, most of us should get into the low and mid 80s. The humidity will have risen somewhat, too. So it will be a partly cloudy, hazy, muggy day with the ever-present chance of showers and storms especially south and west of Interstate 89

WEDNESDAY

This will be the day with the best chance of rain. A nearly stalled weak but very wet storm will wander somewhere around New England and New York. This will set up a wet flow of air from the southeast - off the Atlantic Ocean - will push into New England, including Vermont. The heaviest rain will fall in southern Vermont, especially along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

We'll have to watch whichever spots ended up with the heaviest rainstorms on Tuesday will have to be watched for local flash floods. All but far northern Vermont is once again in a marginal, level one out of four on the risk scale. Areas in far southern Vermont - along Route 9 - are in a level 2 slight risk zone, as is most of southern New England. 

Areas in far northern Vermont that really need the rain look like they might miss out. It will rain up there. Any rain is good, but as it looks now, it probably won't be a deep soaker. 

Rainfall will be highly variable as it always is with showers and thunderstorms. In general, current forecasts give southern Vermont an inch or two of rain, with generally an inch in central Vermont. Far northern Vermont looks to receive only a half inch or so. Nice, but not enough.

Overall, with all the clouds and rain, it will be cool, but humid, with temperatures hovering in the 70s

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

Lingering showers and rumbles of thunder as that slow, rambling storm slowly leaves. So it will be an unsettled, iffy day. Some showers might linger into Friday. But warm, rather sunny, kind of humid weather will linger Friday and Saturday. Another sluggish system looks like it might arrive Sunday with more showers and storms. 

Will The Vermont Rains Coming This Week Be Just What The Doctor Ordered Or Too Much Of A Good Thing?

Summer flowers this morning in St. Albans, Vermont.
The gardens are a bit parched and need rain. We'll
get some, but will it ultimately be too much?

Vermont is in for one more gorgeous summer day today. As previously advertised, this is one of the best weather weekends of the year. 

Today will be almost the same as yesterday, with highs in the 80s under generally sunny skies. There's a bit more wildfire smoke in the air than on Saturday ,but it shouldn't be thick enough to be hard on our lungs or dim the sun much. 

It looks like rain chances will slowly increase between tomorrow and Tuesday. But the showers and thunderstorms will be slow to work into Vermont. And there are big questions as to whether we will have a lot of rain or practically nothing. 

Even though the bulk of the rain will come between Tuesday and Thursday, we still don't know the outcome. We will have one of these three options: 

1. At least parts of the state get cheated, and needed rain doesn't materialize to any great extent So far,  this looks like the least likely scenario

2..Repeated showers and thunderstorms, and possibly a period or two of just steady rain comes through over the course of three days. But the downpours are not too excessive. So we get a nice soaker, but no threat of flooding. This is exactly what we want, and the forecast is leaning slightly toward this scenario. 

3. Too much of a good thing. The downpours linger and become frequent and heavy. There's so much rain that we end up with flooding problems. At this point, if this scenario does happen, it looks like southern Vermont has the highest rise. 

Here's how forecasts think things will happen, including the questions. 

MONDAY

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms might develop during the afternoon.  They're most likely to focus on the Adirondacks. Over here in Vermont, most of us won't see any rain. Perhaps 20 to 30 percent of us will see some at least some rain. It will stay very warm, with highs probably well into the 80s. It'll be slightly more humid than today, but not insanely oppressive.

TUESDAY

Here's where the question marks in the forecast really start. Tuesday through Thursday, it will depend on whether an upper level area of low pressure forms and nearly stalls. And exactly where it happens. 

For Tuesday, it looks like it will be more humid, with a greater chance of showers and storms than on Monday. If the weather system comes in as just a disturbance, we'll have a fair number of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, but nothing incredible.

 If a an upper level low pressure system forms, the rain will be more widespread and the downpours heavier.  That could lead to isolated instances of relatively minor flash flooding. 

For now, Vermont, and most of New England for that matter, is under a marginal, level one out of four level risk of isolated flash floods. 

WEDNESDAY

This is the big question mark day. It'll pretty much definitely rain, at least somewhere in Vermont. The question is, will that upper level storm form, and if so, where will it meander?

If the upper level low does form and stall, somebody under or near it or could receive some flooding rain. Some weather models don't predict this storm to form. Others say it will, but it will happen south and east of Vermont, so no real trouble for us. A few other models have this thing over or near Vermont, opening the door for potentially torrential rains. 

I'm not sure which scenario will unfold. In fact, nobody is sure. So we'll have to wait and see.

For now, southern and central New England, including southern Vermont, is under a slight risk, level two out of four level risk of flash flooding. It's unusual to have that level risk three days in advance, so we'll have to watch this. 

I'm not raising flood alarms yet, but we'll have to watch this.

THURSDAY

Still some lingering showers, but whatever weather system will be harassing us will be starting to move out.  

As always, we'll see how this develops.  It is one of those situations in which we won't know how this will play out until we get much closer to the event. 

Severe Weather Blasts Northeast, But Not Vermont, But The Wind Was Impressive

Scary weather hit the eastern United States
yesterday, but not Vermont. This shows a
flash flood in West Virginia. Note 
the water level outside the sliding 
glass doors. Photo via Facebook 
posted by Ryan Hall Y'all

As expected, Vermont escaped the severe weather that slammed large swaths of the Northeast, but we did have a little bit of wind trouble.

Even though there were no big storms  in Vermont - in fact a number of places had no rain or just a trace - non-thunderstorm south winds cut power in a few spots.  At one point, 3,750 homes and businesses were without power. 

The winds were strongest in the Champlain Valley. Burlington had a gust to 46 mph, for instance. I spent part of the late afternoon removing small branches and twigs from my St. Albans yard. 

It's very unusual for a storm to generate such big gusts this time of year. We've had a series of such storms this summer, which is weird. 

Given such a volatile storm severe weather was inevitable somewhere. So far, nine tornadoes have been confirmed in New Jersey, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. 

Flash flooding swept many areas. The New York City area endured badly flooded streets for the second time in four days. In parts of West Virginia, five inches of rain fell within hours, causing catastrophic flash flooding. 

More than 2,000 flights were canceled because of the storms.

After all that chaos, things are calming down. Which in a way, is too bad. Parts of Vermont really need the rain now. 

TODAY

A cold front is coming through Vermont this morning, too soon to let thunderstorms really fire up. That'll happen further east. Central and northern Maine is under the gun for some severe storms today. 

We will have some hit and miss showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder in a few spots. You could see a band of light rain over northern New York shortly after 9 a.m. That was the cold front.  Even so, many of us will avoid any rain.  

We all love nice days, but, as I've done before, I need to quote Lynn Anderson. "Along with the sunshine, there's gotta be a little rain sometimes."

We're not quite yet on the cusp of another drought, but we do need some rain. At least in parts of Vermont. Scattered showers will bid a hasty retreat out of Vermont by early to mid afternoon. 

The front will make the humidity crash during the day today. You'll notice the change in the air by this afternoon amid fresh westerly breezes. Temperatures will hold in the 70s, with a few low 80s southeast. 

TOMORROW

A gorgeous day. We'l start with another cool morning, most of us will see lows in the 50s, with 40s in the cold spots. Highs will reach the 70s to low 80s with low humidity. The sun will be mixes with a  few pretty clouds. Another Chamber of Commerce day. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

We're in for more weather fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. We'll enjoy a couple of coolish, comfortable mornings followed by sunny, warm afternoons. Pleasant enough for a vigorous hike, warm enough for a dip in the lake or a swimming hole. Maple cremees will be eaten fast so they don't melt all over the place. 

Highs will be in the low 80s Friday and mid 80s Saturday, with a few upper 80s in the warmer valleys. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Some sort of disturbance will work in to raise the risk of some showers, but it will absolutely not be a washout. Unsettled weather will continue early next week, but we don't have specifics on I  unsettled. At least not yet.