A Gorgeous Vermont Wednesday, Storm Risk Thursday And Another Sign Of Autumn?

A very of Jay Peak on a lovely late afternoon yesterday
as viewed from near Enosburgh, Vermont. 

 OK, Tuesday's weather wasn't bad at all, as a low morning overcast in parts of Vermont broke up into puffy clouds mixed with blue skies. And it was cool, or at least cool-ish, with a hint of autumn in the air.  

After a comfortable night, we have a beauty on the way to day, with sunshine, low humidity and comfortable afternoon temperatures into the 70s to around 80. 

Today will be the 17th day in a row with a remarkable stretch of steady temperatures. Daily high temperatures in Burlington have ranged only nine degrees between 73 and 82 degrees.

That steady streak might be slightly broken tomorrow. You't think that since we're headed toward fall, it would be a cool high temperature. Nope, it might be on the warm side. 

Here are the details on Thursday, since it will be kind of a busy day. 

THURSDAY

South winds will import warmer, more humid air into Vermont. The expected high temperature in Burlington is 84 degrees. That's nothing special for late August but still the warmest since August 9. 

A cold front will be approaching.  The combination of that front, the warmth and the humidity, as is so often the case in the summer, is a recipe for thunderstorms. Especially since the front will be approaching  during peak heating in the afternoon. 

As nice as this summer has been in Vermont, it's also been a stormy one, and it's looking like we have another round to go through.

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk, a one out of five alert level for severe storms. That means we might see some isolated instances of damming winds or hail Thursday afternoon or evening. 

The SPC even has us in a very, very low, but not zero risk of another tornado in Vermont. We've already had two tornadoes, and at least three close misses with tornado weather, the most recent of which was during severe weather in Franklin County back on August 10.

 It does look like there's a slightly higher chance of severe storms a little to our south, in central New York and eastern Pennsylvania, and we'll keep an eye out on whether that somewhat higher alert level moves north toward us. 

As always with these thunderstorms, it will be hit and miss. Some of us will get nailed with lightning, wind and downpours and others will be left out. In general, we'll probably only get a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a few spots getting cheated out of any rain at all, and a very few others getting a good inch of rain if they get hit by more than one thunderstorms. 

FRIDAY

Cold fronts bring colder air - duh! - so it will be cooler. It's still August, so don't reach for the ski parkas and ear muffs, it won't get that cold. Highs will be in the 70s, under partly sunny skies. There might be some lingering light showers, and the day may prove rather cloudy over the northern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. 

There might even be a rumble of thunder or two mixed with with the showers. But overall, rainfall will be light. The vast majority of us will get less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Some places will get nothing, or just sprinkles. 

And here's another subtle sign of autumn: The temperature in Burlington might go under 50 degrees Friday night and early Saturday for the first time since June 3.  This might among the longest times   spent Burlington has ever spent above 50 degrees on record, but it's not the record longest.

It was continuously above 50 degrees from June 6 to September 21, 2023, for instances. A few other summers in the past decade or two have had long stretches above 50 like this, but it used to be unheard of. We're living in a warmer world now.

SATURDAY

Our trend of lovely Vermont summer Saturdays continues. After a cool start (see above) with patchy fog in the valleys, it should turn sunny and mild, with low humidity once again.  At least if current forecasts are correct. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

So far, Sunday is looking like another gorgeous day before shower chances return on Monday. How the showers play out early next week is still a big question mark, but it's nothing to worry about for now.