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| The spent blossoms of hostas glistened in the morning sun this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. Rain chances ramp up this week, but questions remain as to how much we'll see.. |
The signs of autumn continue to sneak in.
Clouds on Sunday in northern Vermont were a little thicker than expected and that held temperatures down into the 60s.
Burlington's high temperature was 69 degrees, ending an 83-day long stretch in which every single day had a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.
That's the third longest such stretch on record. Only the summers of 1995 and 1901 had a longer such streak. (It was 87 such days in 1995, so we were very close. Had it been one degree warmer yesterday, Burlington probably would have broken the record, based on current forecasts.
This hasn't been a particularly hot summer, but we've had long streaks of relatively warm weather. Earlier this summer, we had 21 consecutive day sin which the high temperature was 80 degrees or more. That was the fourth longest such stretch on record,
Also, as of this morning, Burlington has had 88 consecutive days in which the low temperature was 50 or above. That's one of the longest on record, but it will be a stretch to what I think was the record - 106 such days in 2023.
Rainfall yesterday, as expected was pretty light. Two bursts of rain here in St. Albans, one at around 1 p.m. and another around 8:30 in the evening, left us with 0.38 inches of rain. Some rain fell in the Northeast Kingdom, where precipitation is really needed, but that was no drought buster. Burlington only managed 0.02 inches of rain.
Southern Vermont, as expected, pretty much missed out on any rain.
Enough of the past, let's look ahead. Rain is eventually in the forecast, but I do worry the Northeast Kingdom might miss out on some of it.
TODAY
The front that came through last night is now stalled to our south and west
It's going to create a lot of trouble from western New York to New Jersey over the next few days, but not so much here in Vermont.
We had a lot of dense morning fog this morning, but it was burning off pretty quickly as I wrote this around 9 a.m. today. It'll be a nice one, though high clouds will start to filter in this afternoon, especially south and west of Interstate 89. With low humidity and highs in the 70s, we shouldn't be bummed if the sun dims a bit this afternoon.
TUESDAY
A weird one. Southwest Vermont looks like it will barely escape the risk of super heavy rains and severe thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, which really needs the rain, will miss out.
A nasty little weather disturbance will ride southeastward along that stalled front I talked about above. That disturbance will hurl batches of torrential rain and severe thunderstorms from western New York to the New Jersey and maybe southern New England.
Southwest Vermont will be on the fringe of this. Places like Bennington could get a good half inch or more of rain out of this. More if the disturbance comes a little closer. Amounts will taper off as you had north and east such that the Northeast Kingdom will probably see no rain.
Central Vermont will see just light showers. Highs will be in the 70s, with maybe some upper 60s south under the thicker clouds and rain
WEDNESDAY
Things start to get a litle more interesting here. A storm system will come at us, pushing that stalled front at us as it does so.
All this will push some heavier rain through Vermont, especially in the afternoon and evening, as it looks now. We're still lacking details on how heavy the rain will be, where any thunderstorms might set up, and whether they will be any flooding risk
For now, things look pretty tame in Vermont. Maybe not so tame a little south of here, but that's their problem.
Parts of southern Vermont could easily see two inches of rain out of this system, so that will be the area to really keep an eye on. A broad band centered on Route 4 would see more than an inch. The rest of the state would get a half inch to an inch. Decent, but not boffo.
As always, I expect these totals will be adjusted up or down a bit before we get to Wednesday.
Severe thunderstorms looks like they'll stay to our south, probably south of a Rochester, New York to NYC line. The Mid-Atlantic states are in for it, as they could see severe weather and flash floods daily Tuesday through Friday.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY
The storm will be to our east by then, but sort of linger, aide by a pool of cool air overhead. That keeps the risk of clouds and showers going. The showers will be light, and large parts of the day will be dry. Thursday has the highest risk of showers. Friday looks like it will have long dry periods in between scattered showers, and Saturday looks like the showers will be few and far between.
Again, this is a peek a few days into the future, so expect adjustments.
Overall. this is a hopeful week to at least temporarily stall a potentially building drought in Vermont. Extended forecasts beyond Saturday suggest a week or two of below normal precipitation, so that would be a bummer.
But, at least things aren't shaping up to be nearly as bad as last year's drought.
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