 |
| Areas in dark green and yellow have chances of severe thunderstorms today. Areas in yellow have a somewhat greater chance of severe storms than in the dark green areas. |
A handful of places could get too much wind, too much hail, too much rain, too much lightning. A few other places won't get the rain they need.
We'll have a storm risk all day, but the big hours to watch will between 3 and 8 p.m. All of Vermont has at least a small risk of isolated severe storms. The best chance of severe storms will be west of the Green Mountains from Middlebury south.
But, again, anyone in Vermont and surrounding areas could have a severe storm today.
A warm front is working northward through Vermont this morning. That front could touch off some scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning. I noticed on radar a few small downpours near Glens Falls, New York heading northeastward toward Vermont as of 8 a.m. today.
You'll notice the humidity increase rapidly this morning and early this afternoon as we get the ingredients in place for this afternoon's expected rough weather.
The storms will probably come through in lines or clusters, with damaging winds the main threat. There is a very, very low chance that one or two storms could start rotating enough to produce a brief spin up tornado. It's been that kind of summer.
Another issue is the risk of local flash flooding. The ground is dry enough so that a few downpours shouldn't cause any issues. However, we could get some "training" storms, the ones that line up and go one right after another over the same spot, like boxcars moving along a train track.
If there is any flash flooding, it will be in pretty small local areas. Nothing widespread with this. The best chance of local flooding should be in the southern half of Vermont. As an early guess, I'd be tempted to especially watch Rutland and Windsor counties. But we can't completely rule out some water mischief in the north, either.
So, we have the usual advice. It's probably not the best day to head out onto the lake or go hiking in the Green Mountains. Pay attention to the sky. Dark clouds gathering to the west? Rumbles of thunder? That's your cue to get indoors.
As always, the National Weather Service will issue warnings and advisories as needed, and the local TV stations will cut in to broadcasting to provide updates if parts of the state are under threat of a bad storm.
This probably won't be the most extensive severe weather outbreak ever, or even the most extensive one of this stormy summer. But it is something to take seriously if severe weather threatens.
FRIDAY
The actual cold front should go through tomorrow morning, with not much fanfare. There could be some showers in the morning. The front might be slow enough so that it could squeak out a weak thunderstorm in southeast Vermont, but no biggie. Then some clearing and more refreshing air arrive in the afternoon and evening.
SATURDAY
Another winning weather Saturday is in the cards. Dawn will break cool, with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 50. A lot of river valleys will be pretty foggy, too. But the fog will burn off to sunny skies with afternoon highs in the 70s. The humidity will stay at refreshing levels, too,
SUNDAY AND BEYOND
It looks like we'll be in a zone Sunday afternoon and into the week where a weather front will either windshield wiper back and forth, north to south and back north again for a few days. Or it will stall sort of near us.
That make it hard to forecast this far in advance. Suffice it to say we'll have daily shower chances Sunday through Tuesday at least.
Interestingly, NOAA's six to ten day weather outlook, issued every day in mid afternoon, has swung decided warm and wet for the opening days of September. It's a long range forecast, so things could change. But it does point toward the chance of some weird late season severe weather to open up the first few days of the new month.
No comments:
Post a Comment