Clear Weather Continues In Vermont, But We've Also Flipped To Cooler Air

Another crystal clear late autumn day yesterday in
St. Albans, Vermont. More of the same is coming
up over the next few days, but it will become 
a little cooler late week. 

 Monday and Tuesday were a great example of how two consecutive days can look exactly the same if you look out the window, but feel different if you walk outdoors. 

Monday here in Vermont was clear, balmy and calm, with highs in the 60s. Skies on Tuesday were crystal clear, too. 

But the air was cooler and there was a stiff northerly breeze. It was still a gorgeous day, but the air had a slight bite to it, especially if you were in the shade and exposed to those north winds.

The joys of autumn

This long stretch of sunny weather will continue, but it will get even cooler for the next few days. Big fat high pressure systems with dry weather and sunshine now look like they could continue over northern New England until Halloween. 

As always, let's get into the details

TODAY

Given the fact that Tuesday was cooler, it make sense that this morning was chillier than the night before, too. Most places in Vermont started the day in the mid and upper 20s.  Even the Champlain Valley was solidly on the frosty side. Burlington reported a low temperature this morning of 30. 

Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was at 18, ,which is the nippiest temperature we've seen around the region so far this autumn. 

We'll end up with highs this afternoon in the 50s, very similar to yesterday. The winds should be a little lighter than yesterday, so there might not be as much of a wind chill. 

Skies should once again be pretty much crystal clear or close to it. 

THURSDAY

We've been expecting a reinforcing shot of cooler air to come in, and that's still on the table. We'll start the day similar to this morning, with frost and freezes in most places. During the later morning and afternoon, north winds will pick up and temperatures will hold in the low the mid 50s. 

Though there will be a fair amount of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys, some clouds will come through, too. That's 'because the new shot of cool air will be led by a very weak cold front that will herald its arrival.

Since it's been so dry, and there's so many dried out fallen leaves on the ground now, we'll have to worry a little about brush and forest fires, since the wind would help push around anything that starts. So be careful out there!

FRIDAY

The coolest day of the week. You'll notice it! Another big, fat, high pressure system will slowly sink southward from Quebec. It'll be another chapped lip day, with very low humidity and lots of bright sunshine. North breezes will continue but will tend to diminish in the afternoon. 

Highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50. Call it mid-40s way up in the Northeast Kingdom and northern Vermont hill towns to mid-50s in the lower Connecticut River Valley

SATURDAY

We'll start with probably the coldest morning of the year so far. Pretry much all of us will be in the 20s, with some teens possibly showing up in the coldest mountain valleys. The day will be clear once again with light winds and temperatures in the low to mid 50s,  Maybe some upper 50s in the warmest souther valleys

All this is courtesy of the big, fat high pressure system which will probably be right on top of us. 

SUNDAY

We do it again. Cold morning, milder afternoon under lots of sunshine. It'll be a little warmer than previous days with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

NEXT WEEK

Still kind of more of the same. Much like this week, Monday will be the mildest day of the week with temperatures up near 60 under sunny skies. A very weak cold front will introduce yet another big, fat, cool, dry, sunny high pressure system. 

The cold front on Tuesday might through a few clouds at us, with perhaps a sprinkle or mountain snow flurry, but that's really iffy. The sunny, dry weather will continue for a couple days. Now we're in the long range, so it gets uncertain. It's possible another cold front would come through late in the week with slightly more noticeable showers, but that remains to be seen. 

 The pattern still looks mostly dry at least until we get into the first few days of November. 

Monday Weather Over-Performed In Vermont Gorgeousness. Rest Of Week Provides Sun And A Cool Down

Autumn leaves on the trees glowed in the late afternoon 
sun in my St. Albans, Vermont yard yesterday. The
sunshine will continue all week, but grab the fleece
and sweaters. It will turn a little cooler. 

 Usually when I say the weather "over-performed" in Vermont, it means the storm was worse than expected. 

Yesterday was quite the opposite. The weather was definitely an over-performer, but decidedly on the gorgeous side. 

It was blue skies and wall-to-wall sunshine, as expected. But that sun had a little more oomph to it than forecast. It got warm. Burlington reached 67 degrees, compared to the forecast high of 63.

Montpelier also reached 67 degrees. St. Johnsbury and Bennington were close at 66 degrees. Rutland was even warmer at 69. You get the picture. Monday was an absolutely delight. 

The "heat wave" is now over, and a week-long cooling trend has started. But as long as you grab a sweater or some fleece, the rest of the week will be fantastic to view any lingering foliage under the sunshine, or to get going on autumn yard cleanup. As alway's we'll get into the details next.

TODAY

With such dry air in place, it was inevitable this morning would be chilly. (Dry air does not hold the heat at night nearly as much as humid air). Most of us started the day in the low to mid 30s with some upper 20s in the cold spots. Highs under the sunshine today will be in the mid and upper 50s, with a few low 60s in a couple spots in the Champlain Valley and valleys in southern parts of the state.

We'll have a slight breeze from the north today, which is a switch from the southerly breezes we saw yesterday. 

WEDNESDAY

Pretty much a carbon copy of today. A chilly, frosty morning yielding to high in the 55 to 62 degree range under the afternoon sunshine. 

THURSDAY

This is when that stalled storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast starts to make its move northeastward, further out to sea. That motion will help pull down a reinforcing push of cooler air. The north breezes will he a little stronger than then were earlier in the week. 

The reinforcement of the cool air might help create a vague cold front, which could produce a few clouds and maybe even a sprinkle in a couple spots. But there will be sunshine, too. Highs will reach the 50s again. 

FRIDAY

The computer models that had earlier suggested a very cold day have relaxed. But it will be the chilliest day of the week nonetheless. Big, fat high pressure will be just to our north and west, dominating the vast province of Quebec and eastern Ontario. We'll have cool northerly breezes. 

Under sunny skies, highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50. 

By Friday, we'll have to start worrying about brush fire risks. The air will have been incredibly dry all week. Those fallen leaves will have dried out, too.  This will not be the week to burn away that brush pile sitting in the back 40.

SATURDAY

We'll start off really cold. There's a decent chance it'll be the coldest morning so far this autumn, with lows right down there in the 20s. Maybe a few low 30s right by Lake Champlain. At this point, it's too late to worry about saving gardens anyway. If you're still covering up your plants, good for you, but the effort has probably gotten Sisyphean. 

The day will be another sunny, cool one. This is a little long range so subject to change. At this point, though, it looks like highs should be in the 50s, with maybe some upper 40s in some northern Vermont hill towns. 

SUNDAY

Sunny and a little warmer. Highs in the 50s to around 60s. The brush and woodland fire risk will continue through the weekend. Thankfully, winds will be on the light side, which means fires might not spread too rapidly. Still, this weekend will definitely not be the one to play with matches, or be careless with your campfire or cigarettes. 

NEXT WEEK

The stalled weather pattern with the big, fat high pressure systems sitting over or near us should finally start to break down. Our next chance of any precipitation is probably later Tuesday. It's hard to say how much we'll get, but at this point, the rainfall next Tuesday night or Wednesday or thereabouts looks pretty lame. 

NOAA Winter Outlook Gives Vermont, Rest of Northern U.S. A Warm Winter, But Take It With A Grain Of Salt

NOAA's winter forecast has warmer than normal air,
in general across the northern U.S, and a tossup
across the South. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook last week, and it was designed by El Nino.  

In general, El Ninos tend toe provide the northern tier of states with mild winters, while the South is stormy. That's not always the way it works out, it's just a tendency. 

Right now, we have a record breaking super El Nino underway, so NOAA is going with the traditional El Nino game plan for the winter.

NOAA has the best chances of warmer than average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes and northern and central New England 

The chances of milder than average temperatures are less certain in the central United States, though NOAA is leaning that way. NOAA is also predicting near average temperatures for Florida and the far Southeast. And it's a coin toss between above and below average temperatures in the Southwest. 

NOAA's winter precipitation forecast has wetter than
normal conditions across the South and maybe the East
and dry spots in the northern Rockies and Great Lakes 

Also staying true to El Nino's blueprint, NOAA calls for a wetter than average winter over the south. Especially in southern and central California and the Southeast. The northern Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes lean drier than normal.

The East Coast is a bit of a wildcard, but NOAA is leaning wet there, too. Some of those southern storms take a turn north along the coast. It's unclear if this means a bunch of rain and mixed precipitation or snow. But if the temperature forecast is right, snowstorms won't linger long on the ground like last winter. 

If the NOAA forecast is right. 

Long range forecasts are notorious. tricky, and are at least sometimes inaccurate. RalphWeatherOBS on Twitter brought receipts. 

For instance, last winter, NOAA forecast the northern Rockies to be on the cold side and southern Rockies. The entire West turned out to be very warm last year, so in that region of the nation. NOAA was half right. 

For 2024-25, NOAA predicted the East Coast would have a warm winter. Instead it was near to slightly cooler than average. 

OLD FARMER'S ALMANAC

For what it's worth, the winter prediction map for the Old' Farmer's Almanac is confusing. They have northern and southeast New England as "mild, dry," while central and parts of western New England are "cold, snowy."  For one small region of the nation, you really can't have both, so I don't know what gives. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac breaks it down this way with a little more detail for the Northeast: 

Temperatures would be above  normal in the north, below normal south. The coldest period would be in early to mid January. Precipitation is expected to be below normal, though snowfall might be above normal south.  

THE FARMER'S ALMANAC

There's another almanac that's been around forever, The Farmer's Almanac that also does winter forecasts. 

This almanac seems to have El Nino in mind, too. They predict a number of coastal storms going up the Eastern Seaboard, much like the supposed "typical" El Nino winter.

Since it will be a generally mild winter, again, presumably due to E Nino, this pattern involves a lot of mixed precipitation and wet snow, according to this Almanac. 

Of course, Almanacs are just fun. They don't accurately predict the weather, no matter what they say.

El Nino is also no guarantee, as we mentioned above. The only thing I'm certain about this coming winter is that there will be surprises. 

 

Long Stretch Of Sunny Vermont Weather Continues, With Subtle Day To Day Changes

People strolling on a nice autumn day yesterday in 
Georgia, Vermont. Mostly sunny weather will 
continue all week, but there will be some 
subtle day to day changes. 

 Sunday surely cleaned up nice. 

Temperatures soared well into the 50s and winds were on the light side, making for a delightful day. 

As previously advertised, this begins a stretch of mostly sunny weather that could last at least until next Monday. With a few little hiccups thrown in. Those hiccups won't make much of a different, though. 

The overall pattern continues the same: Strong high pressure centered near northern New England and  Quebec, with strong low pressure spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast. That low pressure won't have a  direct effect on us, but might influence temperatures a bit. 

Also, the shape the big high pressure system will shift over time, influencing our temperatures. Eventually, a reinforcement of that giant bubble of high pressure will also lower our temperatures a bit. Eventually. 

Here are the dailies

TODAY

The start of the workweek will be the warmest part of this sunny spell. As is typical with clear skies this time of  year, the day started cold again - 20s in much of Vermont, 30s in the Champlain Valley. 

The high today is stretched out between that storm off the coast, and another one up by Hudson Bay. That will set up a southwest winf flow. Highs should get to near 60 in many spots, low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

TUESDAY

The high pressure will start to rebuild and strengthen over the Great Lakes as the storm near Hudson Bay takes off toward the Arctic. This will begin to set up a north wind that will gradually lower temperatures. This new arrangement looks like it could create a cold front of sorts that might spread some clouds around Vermont in the morning, but it should turn sunny. Highs should he well up into the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY

The center of the strong high pressure will have moved to southern Quebec by Wednesday. The cool north flow will continue but barely. The proximity of the high will mean light winds. It also means a cold, frosty start to the day, with lows in the 25 to 32 degree range for most of us. Highs should reach the 50s again. 

THURSDAY

The storm off the East Coast looks like it wants to contribute to a dip in the jet stream forming in far eastern Canada. That will eventually help tug a reinforcing high pressure system into Quebec.  All this might spread a couple clouds our way and hold temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

FRIDAY

The models are still disagreeing on how cold it will get with that trough in eastern Canada and the cold high pressure system coming in behind it. The most pessimistic computer models would hold daytime temperatures in the mid 30s a mid 40s and we'd deal with a stiff north with along with some clouds and sprinkles and flurries. 

Other models keep us partly sunny with highs in the 45 to 52 degree range. We'll wait and see how this resolves. But the chances of measurable precipitation are really low no matter which model you look at. 

SATURDAY

As it looks now, strong high pressure will be centered right overhead in Vermont, or close to it. If that happens, look for another cold, frosty morning, followed by another sunny day with highs at least in the low to mid 50s/

SUNDAY

The high might slip just to our south, turning the very light winds to a southwesterly direction. If that happens, we could pop up into the low 60s again under sunny 

BEYOND SUNDAY

It's hard to say how and when these persistent weather patterns break down, but we could start to see that early next week.  For now, the next chance of any rain would be around Wednesday, October 28

Parts of Southern California Burning Again, Hot Dry Winds Fuel Blazes

Homes burn in San Juan Capistrano 
during southern California wildfires
that broke out on Friday

 Some of you might be surprised to hear of wildfires in southern California. Didn't it just rain there?

Well yes, it did, sort of. But the heaviest rain was well south of Los Angeles.  The city itself received just 0.06 on October 12. Most places north of L.A. didn't receive any rain at all..

So when the hot, dry Santa Any winds started blasting through the mountains and canyons of southern California Friday, so did the fires.

As ABC7 In Los Angeles reported on Saturday: 

"Firefighters are battling blazes in San Clemente, Malibu and Azusa. While forward progress has stopped with the Peak Fire in Azusa, the Norte Fire in Orange County and the Bryson Fire in Malibu have forced evacuations."

The Norte fire destroyed six homes in San Juan Capistrano and forced evacuations there and in nearby San Clemente. Two firefighters were injured. 

The area was ripe for fires. The thick underbrush around the area hadn't burned since 1950. 

Though hot, dry, windy weather continued on Saturday, this will thankfully be a relatively short-lived bout with those kinds of conditions. 

The weather will be calmer and somewhat more humid starting today.  Showers are forecast in central and southern California Wednesday and Thursday, including in areas that received no rainfall last week.

Let's hope that's the start of an El Nino rainy season, one that could prematurely and thankfully squelche southern California's autumn fire season.  

 

Sunday Morning: A Cold Start, But Remarkably Steady, Calm Weather This Week. Maybe Beyond, Too?

Henry the weather dog on Saturday
found an area of relatively warm sunshine
and a sort of camouflage amid fallen
leaves a pine needles at his St. 
Albans home Saturday afternoon. 

And that's a wrap. 

Already. our brief cold snap was fading away as of dawn today. Especially in western Vermont, the coldest readings were at around 2 in the morning, rather than dawn, which is customary for a cold night. 

The core of the cold air had already departed and temperature began to rise in the early morning hours. Overnight lows were pretty uniform, in the low to mid 20s. 

The Champlain Valley was a tad warmer, with upper 20s a little after midnight before getting above freezing as the first light in the eastern sky began to emerge. 

In terms of snow, several towns, mostly in the Northeast Kingdom reported a trace of snow. Video from Stratton Mountain in southern Vermont showed a solid dusting of wet snow near the summit. As the sun came out during the day the summits shown white under the cold skies. 

Yesterday looked warmer than it was. Bright sunshine developed, especially away from the mountains. But a stiff northwest wind and temperatures holding in the low and mid 40s had a whiff of winter to it, though it was nothing compared to what is eventually coming. 

COMING UP

As previously advertised, we're in for a long spell of tranquil, mainly sunny and seasonable weather for this time of year. 

Such unwavering weather is rare in Vermont (If you don't like the weather in Vermont.....)  It's especially rare in the second half of October, when the weather pattern normally gets more active, with stronger storms and more aggressive pushes of warm and cold air as we rapidly descend toward winter. 

A stalled storm or subtropical storm will spin well off the Mid-Atlantic coast through at least Thursday. To the north, where we live, a corresponding high pressure system will stall just to our north, providing generally sunny weather. 

There might be a minor readjustment to this regime late week, when that storm will finally slip away into the Atlantic. Up here, a cold front will replace our high pressure system with an almost identical one which might then hang out for a few more days. 

The only major change in our weather - and it's uncertain - is that the new high pressure will temporarily cool us off more. 

The details

Today:   

Some cloudiness along and north or Route 2 will yield to sunshine. The rest of the state will enjoy war to wall sunshine. Highs in the mid 50s, so pretty nice

Monday-Thursday. 

Generally sunny. Highs in the 50s, with low 60s in the warmer valleys. Lows in 30s to low 40s. Some clouds might arrive Thursday, we're unsure of that yet. 

Friday-Saturday

The American computer  model really chills us off to readings not that far off from yesterday, which would mean highs in the 40s, with upper 30s Northeast Kingdom. The American model usually overemphasizes cold air in the long term, so I don't think it will be that bad. An early guess would put highs within a few degrees either side of 50s and lows within a few degrees either side of 30. 

I think the next chance of noticeable rain won't come until October 25 and the earliest and possibly as late as October 30.  

Winds Roared In Vermont Friday; Wintry-ish Cold Today; Super Calm Week Coming Up

A brief break of sun over Colchester, Vermont Friday
afternoon before showers arrived with those dark
clouds. The cold front brought much 
colder air to Vermont for today.

 Wow, in some parts of Vermont Friday, the wind really did howl. I see a report of 60 mph from Colchester Reef and several reports of gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range. 

Power outages in Vermont briefly spiked to near 3,000 at one point Friday. 

It was still windy out there this morning, and that state of affairs will continue all day as our brief winter spell has settled in. 

Rainfall was pretty variable across the state as much of it was pretty showery, giving the rainfall pattern a sort of hit and miss quality. Burlington and Rutland had about a third of an inch. Montpelier had 0.6 inches. St. Johnsbury was closer to a half inch. 

The overnight race between incoming dry air and incoming cold air was mostly won by the dry air. The cold air was a little bit slower to arrive than expected. So, snow accumulation is limited in Vermont, mostly just relegated to the really  high elevations.

My go-to check for snow at relatively high elevations is traffic cameras along Route 242 in Westfield and Route 105 in Jay. Neither camera showed any snow on the ground this morning. I'm sure the mountain peaks got a dusting, though. 

Some lower elevations likely saw snowflakes. I noticed Montpelier reported light rain with temperatures in the mid-30s for awhile early this morning. I'm sure that was snow a little higher up on surrounding hills

TODAY

The rest of the day will be partly cloudy, windy and cold. As of 8 a.m. temperatures statewide were within a few degrees either side of 40, and those reading will only go up  few degrees by this afternoon. 

Those wind gusts to 30 mph will make it feel much colder than that. And, to put the final nail in the coffin for Vermont gardens this year, temperatures statewide still look like they'll be in the 20s by dawn tomorrow.

SUNDAY

We transition to warmer weather, at least by afternoon. As we hit mid-afternoon, we should be up in the low to mid 50s, just a tiny bit cooler than average.

MONDAY-SATURDAY

The challenge for me all week will be coming up with things to write about regarding Vermont weather. A stalled pattern means high pressure will remain stuck over northern New England and Quebec, giving us a long stretch of dry, seasonable weather. 

Highs every day will be in the 50s to near 60. Lows will be in the 30s. There probably will be some fog in the river valleys during the mornings.  We might have to watch for some temperature inversions that could keep the low clouds and fog  going much of the day on some days, but so far, the chance of that appear pretty low. 

The only chance of rain appears to be maybe some sprinkles Thursday as a very lame cold front helps reinforce the high pressure nearby. 

Despite the rain we've just had, there might be an elevated fire risk later in the week as all those fallen leaves turn crispy in the dry air. 

Vermont Foliage Stripper Winds Howl Today; Still Expecting A Brief Winter Interlude Before Calm, Pleasant Week Ensues

My lawn in St. Albans, Vermont is suddenly littered with 
leaves as strong winds blew through this morning. 
Tomorrow will be much colder, with a wintry
feel to the air. But the cold wave will be over by Sunday. 

 The wind was howling outside mph windows here in St. Albans, Vermont, and the air was filled with flying leaves as our foliage stripping storm roars on. 

The Champlain Valley was taking the brunt of it, as gusts were well over 40 mph in spots. By 8:30 a.m. , the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued a wind advisory through 4 p.m. today, for gusts up to at least 45 mph.

At one point this morning, there were almost 1,000 power outages in the Champlain Valley. I'm sure a few more will pop up as we go through the day. 

It was breezy in other parts of Vermont, but not nearly as much as in the Champlain Valley.  Here's how the rest of today looks:

TODAY

The rest of the day will be shower, windy, especially in the Champlain Valley, and briefly warmer. Highs should get into the 50s to some 60s, mostly west of the Green Mountains. It looks like the showers might be  more concentrated in the mid-afternoon to evening time frame. There might even be a rumble of thunder.

No severe storms are expected here in Vermont, but the storm is dynamic enough to raise the risk of severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic States, extending as far north as Connecticut.

The storms's cold front should cross through Vermont this evening, causing those temperatures to drop and snowflakes to fly in the mountains late tonight. 

SATURDAY

Our brief introduction to winter is still on track. But just as we suspected, the intensity of it doesn't look like it will be as intense as some earlier forecasts 

Still, Saturday will be a shock to the system. Early day snow showers will dust the ground at elevations of above 1,500 feet, and the mountain summits will get maybe a couple inches of fresh powder. 

Highs will only get into the 30s in the Northeast Kingdom and 40s elsewhere. Probably low 40s in most places. The foliage stripping will continue as northwest winds rocket through with gusts to at least 30 mph most places. The wind will be more widespread than it is today, even if gusts won't be as strong as they are today in the Champlain Valley. 

Saturday will be no day for a foliage hike in the mountains. Underfoot it will be wet, with icy snow at higher elevations. Temperatures will remain below freezing all day as you approach the summits and wind chills up there will be in the single digits. 

It'll be a nice novelty, though, seeing the white capped mountains surrounded by splashes of color remaining as stick season begins to emerge.

SUNDAY

What cold wave?

The frigid blast will end as quickly as it began. Sunday will dawn cold, with temperatures across the state in the 20s. But under sunshine, temperatures should reach the low 50s at least. For reference, Sunday afternoon will be very similar to yesterday afternoon. So, yeah, pretty damn nice. 

NEXT WEEK

I don't need to pick out the weather on individual days next week, because it will be pretty much the same all week. The overall weather pattern will stall, much to our benefit.

A storm will spin and  not move all that much off the Carolina and Virginia coasts. Meanwhile, it looks as if a sprawling, huge high pressure system will linger over or near New England all week. That means sunshine most days, with pretty normal temperatures for this time of year. 

That means comfortable afternoons with temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s, and cool overnight lows in the 30s. Not a true Indian Summer because it won't be unusually warm. But close enough. 

We'll have light winds, too

Those light winds will be great for those of you who will be raking leaves. The job is so hard to do when the wind is howling, so next week will be a great break for that.  

A Calm Day In Vermont Before A WildStormy, Windy, Snowy, Frigid (For October) 48 Hours

The trees in back of my St. Albans, Vermont home, 
stubbornly green until recently, have finally changed
colors. Many of those leaves will blow off in the 
coming days due to windy, rainy, then frigid
weather. A brief winter intro is coming. 

We awoke to at skies that were at least partly blue, a nice switch from northern Vermont's gloom and gray skies from yesterday. Southern Vermont had some sun, but also a few lingering showers, so it wasn't really a perfect autumn day. 

Rainfall totals from our wet storm are completely in. It looks like a pretty broad area of northwest Vermont  had 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. 

The Northeast Kingdom, which really needed the rain, had a respectable one to two inches. Amounts generally tapered off as you went south. By the time you reached Route 9 in far southern Vermont, less than half an inch fell.

We're in for a bit of a wild ride the next few days until things really, firmly calm down again, so let's get into it

TODAY

The pick of the week. Not perfect, but pretty damn good. Lots of sunshine, mixed with sun clouds, will augment the beautiful fall foliage. It'll be cooler than yesterday, especially compared to the balmy temperatures southern Vermont  had yesterday. Most of  us will see the low 50s. 

Enjoy the foliage, because a lot of it will blow away starting tomorrow. 

FRIDAY

Here's where the excitement begins big time. Rain should spread into Vermont early in the day. It'll be a rainy, windy day, with the most wind in the Champlain Valley and many areas in the northern Green Mountains. This won't be a damaging wind storm by any means, except to the fall foliage. Winds should gust to 40 mph in some places. 

On the Green Mountain summits, winds should gust to 55 to 65 mph. Between the rain and the wind, it won't be a day to go on a hike. In fact, up there, it will be dangerous. 

We'll see another decent rainfall, too, with amounts coming in between a half inch and an inch for most of us by Friday night. 

The storm's sharp cold front will come through in the evening and temperatures will plunge through the 40s and 30s Friday night. Rain will change to snow in the mountains, though precipitation rates will get much lighter as drier air moves in. 

SATURDAY

Here's our introduction to winter. Thankfully, it won't last long. Snow levels will fall such that even valleys could see some early morning flurries. There might be a thin scrim of snow on the ground at elevations above 1,500 feet. A couple inches of snow will dust the summits. 

Even though some areas will see a little sun by afternoon, it will be incredibly cold for mid-October. We might be seeing some record cold "high" temperatures. The record cold high temperature in Burlington for Saturday is 42. In Montpelier, it's 37. Unless it's still relatively warm just after midnight, we'll come close to tying or breaking those records. 

The National Weather Service tells us temperatures on the mountain summits will hold in the upper teens to around 20 all day. Welcome to January in Vermont. For one day, anyway. 

Strong northwest winds will make it feel much colder. If you can bundle up, go out and enjoy the snoliage views. Most of the leaves will have blown off, except in the lower, warmer valleys. But there will still be some. colorful trees and branches left. The contrast with the high elevation snow will be just lovely. 

SUNDAY

Definitely a cold start, but not as cold as you'd think, given how chilly Saturday will be. The core of the cold air will be moving away early Sunday. So, we'll start the day in the 20s, with a couple upper teens in the coldest hollows. Places like Burlington, St. Albans and other places close to Lake Champlain have avoided a freeze so far. Not this time. 

The day will get better as it goes along. Highs should reach to near 50, low 50s in the warmer valleys. The sun will be out, and winds will be much lighter. We'll actually have  lovely, crisp afternoon. 

NEXT WEEK

This week has been pretty wild for Vermont weather. Next week, not so much. Expect a fair amount of sun pretty much every day, with seasonable temperatures. That means frosty mornings in some spots with lows in the 30s, and highs in the 50s to low 60s. No weather systems of note seem to want to come through next week. 

We'll let you know if anything change. s

Big Rain Totals From Downpours, Thunderstorms Northern Vermont, Less South. But Wild Weather, Including Snow Still In Forecast

The wettest storm of the year so far in St. Albans, Vermont
with a storm total of 3.12 inches. Some impressive totals'
in northern Vermont. More rain coming Friday, and 
it's still looking like we'll have at least snow flakes 
in the air for Saturday. 

If you like wet and stormy days, you probably had a great time yesterday, especially in you were in the northern half of Vermont. 

The day and evening were filled with rain, heavy at times, locally gusty winds, and in many places, thunderstorms, especially in the evening. 

I don't have a full run down of rainfall yet, that will come later this morning. But some of the totals are impressive. 

I have one unofficial report of 4.25 inches in Georgia. It seems everywhere else had less, but in some cases not by much.  My rain gauge in St. Albans caught a storm total of 3.12 inches. As of 5 p.m. yesterday Fairfax reported 2.14 inches and Westford 1.94 inches. But that was before another band of heavy rain moved through. 

I'm sure we'll see some other impressive rain totals from northwest Vermont in particular as more information arrives 

Montpelier had 1.52 inches of rain Tuesday, breaking the rainfall record for the date by 0.79 inches. Across the pond, Plattsburgh was deluged by 2.56 inches of rain. 

As you move south, rainfall began to diminish, as expected. Burlington received a respectable 1.31 inches. It was a stormy day there, too, as winds gusted as high as 45 mph. 

Further south, Rutland had 0.7 inches of rain and Bennington just 0.07 inches. 

Exciting weather isn't over quite yet in Vermont as we have more heavy rain, more strong winds, very cold temperatures, and yes, snow on the way.

Let's break it down: 

TODAY

The calm after the storm.  Early today, temperatures were still weird as early morning readings were in the upper 40s north but still in the low and mid 60s south. Not all the fronts have cleared through yet, but that will happen as the morning goes on. 

Which means temperatures will even out. In the north, it will stay cloudy, so highs today will be in the 50s to near 60. Party sunny skies south will bring temperatures into the mid and upper 60s. Nice and mild. 

Lingering drizzle in the north this morning should dry out somewhat by afternoon. 

THURSDAY

Chillier as a brief incursion of cool air comes in from Quebec. It will still be the pick of the week, with sunshine, and crisp air. Highs should make it into the low 50s after a potentially frosty morning in spots. The morning cold will be nothing compared to what's coming this weekend. 

FRIDAY

Another windy, rainy storm - a real foliage stripper. It'll be another strong storm, probably heading down the St. Lawrence River Valley toward Montreal during the day. It won't rain as hard as it did yesterday, but many places in Vermont can expect more than a half inch of rain, 

 Some places could get another inch of rain. The National Weather Service says parts of the Champlain Valley night see a little less rain than everybody else. Strong southwesterly winds mean the Adirondacks will block some of the moisture.  As a cold front comes in Friday night, it will turn sharply colder. Rain will change to snow in the high elevations toward morning. 

SATURDAY

A real taste of winter. As the National Weather Service in South Burlington put it, well have a race between how fast the cold air comes in versus how fast the dry air arrives. That will determine who gets snow, and how much. 

It's possible the Champlain Valley could see a few flakes early in the day. Much of the rest of Vermont outside southern valleys will also see at least a few snow flurries. A dusting could accumulate, mostly at elevations above 1,000 feet. The summits could see two or three inches of snow. '

It will truly be a wintry day. Most places will be below freezing to start the day, and only rise into the 30s to near 40 for highs. That's typical of early December, not mid-October. Strong northwest winds will make it feel much colder.

Although this storm will be a foliage stripper, there probably will be a few leaves left to contrast with white mountain summits. Or, a dusting of snow on landscapes with some colorful trees could make for some beautiful photos. Classic Vermont snoliage. 

Winds will diminish somewhat Saturday night, but we'll go below freezing again. 

SUNDAY

The start of a warming trend, though we're starting from a point that can't be much colder this time of year. By afternoon Sunday, it should be up near 50 degrees under sunny skies. That's still cool for this time of year, but still, it'll feel nice after Saturday, especially since the wind will be lighter

NEXT WEEK

After the weather excitement this week, we have much more reasonable, calmer weather in store. Temperatures will be near normal, or even slightly warmer than normal on some days, and the weather should stay pretty dry. It'll be a nice Indian summer-ish break from the cold weather this weekend. 

 

Tropical Storm Rachel Harasses Southwest, Powerful Hurricane Slams Mexico

Homes in Long Beach, California, battered by days
or waves generated by offshore hurricanes are 
crumbling under the assault. Photo via Facebook
from Storm Chaser Jordan Hall

 California and the southwestern United States are still picking up the mess left by Tropical Storms Rachel, which Hurricane Simon continuous to trash the Mexican west coast.  

The two storms are causing additional damage in a summer and autumn that has produced a lot of tropical trouble on the Pacific side of North America.

RACHEL

Tropical Storm Rachel is long gone now, having fed a storm in northern New York and New England that dumped heavy rains Tuesday. 

 Rachel started harassing California several days ago when the storm was still offshore. 

A Kelvin wave has elevated sea levels along the coast. Then, huge waves from then-Tropical Storm Rachel created more destruction Thursday night and Friday. 

The most damage occurred in on Long Beach Peninsula. The boardwalk there and homes lining the boardwalk, were damaged in previous storms this year.

By Saturday night, the century-old Long Beach boardwalk was almost completely in ruins and homes along that boardwalk were beginning to crumble. 

Per ABC7 in Los Angeles:

"At least eight buildings, including some condos and apartments, have been red-tagged. Another property has been yellow tagged.

One home appeared severely damage and at risk of falling into the ocean."

A home that is red tagged means the house is unsafe for occupation and nobody should enter them until repairs make the structure safe. 

Video showed the buildings cracked and sagging, threatening to collapse, as waves continued to batter and undermine the structures over the weekend .

The Long Beach Marathon went on as scheduled Sunday, but had to be rerouted away from the beach due to storm damage and coastal flooding. Elsewhere along the coast, homes on Dana Point were also damaged by waves.

A large crack appeared on an embankment separating the Pacific Coast Highway and the ocean between Laguna Beach and Newport Beach.  The crack was narrow in a video taken yesterday, but was much wider today 

The storm dumped heavy rain on far southern California. 

Southern California seldom gets much rain in October, But several stations, especially in the mountain Palomar and Birch Hill, at elevations of over 5,300 feet elevation each had a little more than 3.8 inches of rain. 

In coastal communities, Carlsbad had 1.65 inches, Oceanside had 1.55, and National City had 1.29 inches. San Diego itself has had 0.84 inches so far.  Three quarters of an inch fell just on Saturday. Normal for San Diego for the entire month of October is just a half inch. 

On top of all this, little or no rain fell north of Las Angeles. Gusty winds from the storm helped spread a growing brush fire in Santa Clarita. The fire burned 475 acres and forced evacuations, but it has since calmed down and residents have returned home. 

 Meanwhile, gusty winds and flash flooding harassed Arizona, Utah, Nevada and southwest Colorado. 

In Utah, about 70 runners Sunday in Utah's Moab 240 ultramarathon were evacuated from the race route after they were stranded by flooding.  None of the athletes were injured. 

The event was ultimately canceled. "The weather has become too dangerous to safely continue - we've received reports of aid station structures blowing away, trees falling down, wind, rain, freezing temps - and we're expecting conditions to get worse tonight."

A major route through Cottonwood Canyon, Utah was closed by flooding, too. A little over an inch of rain fell in Las Vegas, causing flash flooding that stranded cars and blocked roads. 

HURRICANE SIMON

Powerful Hurricane Simon has been torturing the west coast of Mexico over the past few days. 

It's been moving northwestward, parallel to the Mexican coast since at least Sunday. Top winds were 150 mph on Sunday. 

Winds with Simon had decreased to 90 mph.  The hurricane has been close enough to the Mexican coast to.cause battering waves and torrential rains. Tropical storm Rachel and Hurricane Simon have so far teamed up to kill 5 people in Mexico. 

The hurricane was meandering very slowly Wednesday with a somewhat unpredictable path. Current projections have it going into the Gulf of California later this week.  

 

A Soaking Rain Greets Vermont Today, Helps With Drought, Maybe Thunder, Too. Snow Still In The Forecast

Rainfall prediction map from the National Weather Service
in South Burlington. Yellow areas are expected to have at
least 1.5 inches of rain from our current storm. As little
as a quarter inch will all near the Massachusetts border.

Today's weather in Vermont, especially in the  northern half of the state is as wet and soggy and miserable as it can get. 

In other words, delightful. Here's why.  Moderate drought is still going on in northeastern Vermont. 

The rest of northern and central Vermont were abnormally dry. Today's storm won't necessarily get rid of the drought. But it will help. Greatly. 

TODAY'S RAIN

This storm is much wetter than we thought it would be several days ago. By the time it's over tonight, more than an inch will fall on the dry and drought areas of Vermont. Some towns will see more than two inches. 

And it's the perfect soaking too. Instead of a torrential downpour lasting an hour, that mostly runs off, this will be a day long affair. Light rain started last night, and started intensifying after dawn. 

A cold front has stalled across the region, and a storm is riding eastward along it. The storm, as we mentioned yesterday, scooped up some moisture and energy from Tropical Storm Rachel which originated way over in the Pacific Ocean. The result is a lot of rain. 

Rain will come down moderately to heavy at times all day.

Areas along and north of Route 2 could have storm totals of between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts in the mountains. Central Vermont could have an inch of rain, with far southern Vermont only receiving a half inch. 

We often see a flood watch with this amount of rain. But the ground is so dry, and river levels are so low that we'll be fine through this storm. 

The storm is pretty dynamic, so we might hear a rumble of thunder or two, especially in the late afternoon and evening. 

We have another thing going on today that reminds me of winter. Cold high pressure in eastern Canada is creating easterly winds that will keep areas east of the Green Mountains chilly. This is a common set up in the winter, the kind of weather that causes sleet and freezing rain east of the Greens. 

No freezing rain today, but towns was of the Greens should hold in the 40s today. West of the Green Mountains, it will still be chilly, but it'll still manage to get in the 50s. But it will feel pretty stormy at times in the Champlain Valley, gusty winds from the south will accompany the rain. 

The rain will continue into tonight, then taper off late. 

WEDNESDAY

It'll be breezy and chilly, typical October as the storm heads away into southeastern Canada. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with a little more sun in southern valleys. 

Highs will be in the 50s.

THURSDAY

Pick of the week. Cool with sunshine. North winds will have increased further. Highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50 north, and in the 50s north. Chilly but nice.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Another dynamic storm comes our way. This will be a foliage stripper, with wind and rain arriving Thursday nigh and continuing well into Friday. The cold front with this storm will be strong, and temperatures will crash Friday night. 

Rain will change to snow on mountain summits, and some flakes will probably make it into valley floors, especially away from Lake Champlain. 

Saturday will be a classic November day, nothing like October. It'll be really windy, with strong gusts from the northwest. Highs should stay in the 30s to around 40 north, and in the low 40s south. 

I guess whatever leaves on the trees will create some "snoliage" scenes. Elevations above 1,500 might have a dusting of snow on the ground. Summits could have a few inches.  If there are breaks of sun in the clouds during the afternoon, it could be quite beautiful. 

Dig your winter gear out. You'll need it on Saturday. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Luckily, this cold blast will be brief. Sunday will still be quite chilly for this time of year, with highs in the 40s. But the sun will be out and winds will be lighter. The rest of next week will be generally dry with seasonable temperatures. That means highs in the 50s to around 60.

A Little Isaias Rain Overnight, Much More Needed Rain In Vermont Tomorrow. First Snow Flurries Saturday?

Current forecast for rain late tonight through Wednesday
morning. More than an inch of rain could drench
northern Vermont, where it is most needed. 

As expected, a little rain passed through Vermont overnight from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias. 

No big deal, only a quarter inch of rain, give or take in most places. Closer to a half inch in far southern Vermont, and about a tenth of an inch far north.  

Be glad that's all we got out of Isaias. In North Carolina, the remnants of the hurricane spun off tornadoes, causing damage in parts of Raleigh and Fayetteville. 

Still, we need more rain, and a couple of storms look like they will oblige. Forecasts for rainfall have increased. Yay! The weather pattern looks a bit on the wild side for the next few days. Not extreme or scary, but not calm either. 

Let's get into it.

TODAY

The calm before the storm. It'll be cloudy in the north, partly cloudy south, with mild highs in the 60s, warmest southeast. There's a little drizzle around this morning that should dry up as we go through the day.  There could be a late day shower north, but most of the day will be dry.

TUESDAY

A busy weather day for sure. 

A stationary front will set up near northern Vermont tonight and part of tomorrow. A storm will move west to east along the front. 

The result: Tuesday will be the first day long washout we've had in a long time. Especially in northern Vermont. The storm wouldn't have been that impressive if not for former Tropical Storm Rachel  The tropical storm and its remnants caused wind, storm surges and flooding in the Desert Southwest over the weekend. 

The former Rachel also stuck her nose in our storm's business.  It is injecting energy and moisture into the system: The result: A bunch of rain. Some wind. Maybe even some thunderstorms. 

The bottom line is it looks like northern Vermont in particular might get a bunch of rain.  That's the part of Vermont that really needs the rain.

There's still time for something to go wrong, of course, but for now, areas north of Route 2 are forecast to receive an inch to an inch and a half of rain. Central Vermont should get maybe three quarters of an inch of rain, give or take. Far southern parts of the state should receive a half inch or less.

The rain and wind and clouds will probably keep temperatures all day in the 50s. There's some question as to whether a warm front will pop readings briefly warmer in some parts of the state. We shall see.

WEDNESDAY

A typical October day. Breezy and chilly, with quite a few clouds, especially north. Highs should reach the 50s, and it'll feel cooler than that with this gusts and clouds. There might be some light showers, especially in the northern mountains. 

THURSDAY

Pick of the week. Sunshine, cool weather. Highs in the 50s. 

FRIDAY

Another windy, rainy storm. This one could be a real foliage stripper. Hard to say how much rain we'll get. But it could be another relatively decent soaking. 

SATURDAY

A blast of cold air will blow in with the coldest air of the season. In fact, it'll probably snow in Vermont late Friday night and Saturday.  Enough to accumulate a little bit in the mountains. Maybe some snow flurries even in the valleys. 

The American computer models usually over emphasize cold air a few days out, so this probably won't be as snowy as some people on social media are suggesting. 

However, the average date of the first snow flurries in Burlington is October 15. So if a stray snowflake lands on Burlington Saturday, it wouldn't be that out of the ordinary. 

Whether any snow flurries hit the valleys or not, so far, Saturday looks miserable. Temperatures look like they will hold in the 40s. Strong northwest winds will make it feel worse. 

AFTER SATURDAY

Luckily, the cold blast won't last long, and a warming trend will start Sunday and continue into the following week. 

Isaias Rain To Remain Mostly In Southern Vermont, But North Could Get Decent Rain Monday Night/Tuesday

A gorgeous autumn Saturday yesterday as seen from atop
Fairfield Hill in St. Albans, Vermont. 

After a stunningly gorgeous Saturday in Vermont, high clouds have covered the sky. 

Those high clouds started coming in during the day yesterday, but they weren't thick enough to interfere with a bright, crisp October day.  Classic Vermont. Even the air almost smelled like pumpkin spice. So what happens next? Let's get into it: 

TODAY

The high clouds, of course, are coming from the remains of Hurricane Isaias, which, as we know, slammed into the Florida Panhandle Friday evening. 

Despite the clouds, temperatures should reach the low 60s today, which is pretty close to average. 

The clouds will lower and thicken through the day, so that it'll be pretty overcast by this afternoon. Rain will move into southern Vermont this afternoon and slowly works its way north. That rain, however, will be battling dry air to the north. 

All this means that northern areas now look like they'll see practically nothing out of this. Forecasts that were issued this morning don't bring much rain to the north tonight at all. Some spots along the Canadian border might remain completely dry. 

For now, the National Weather Service is going for about three quarters of an inch near the Massachusetts border. Amounts quickly diminish to around a third on an inch around Rutland and White River Junction, then  less than a tenth of an inch in Burlington and St. Johnsbury. 

The rainfall forecast is subject to change. Given the forecast trends, I wouldn't be surprised if Vermont receives even less rain than forecast. 

The rain should end by early morning. 

If you don't get much needed rain tonight, we still have a shot at more rain. Including in the north. 

MONDAY

We'll be between weather systems tomorrow. That means mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s. Most of the day will ve dry. We could see some very early morning showers. And more rain might start to break out in the north late in the day.  

TUESDAY

The next storm comes through Monday night through Tuesday. It's not a huge weather system, but it's getting an assist from former Tropical Storm Rachael. That storm hit far northwest Mexico late yesterday. It's causing coastal destruction in southern California and heavy rain/flooding in the Desert Southwest, and on into the southern Rocky Mountains. 

Some of that moisture is getting quickly pulled into our little storm system for Monday night and Tuesday. 

If the forecast holds northern Vermont, which really needs the rain, could receive a decent half inch to an inch of rain out of this.  Somewhat less rain will fall in the south, but at least they'll get a little. 

WEDNESDAY

Like most autumn storms, this one will have a cold front. But the front won't have a ton of cold air behind it.  We'll have the kind of day that's typical for the day after cold front in Vermont. We'll have lots of clouds, especially north. 

There could be some light showers, with temperatures in the 50s. Northwest winds will make it feel chillier. It doesn't look like it will be nippy enough for snow on the mountain summits. So no taste of a winter wonderland quite yet. 

LATE WEEK

At this point, Thursday looks like a nice fall day, probably much like yesterday did.  Friday and the weekend looks like it might bring us our annual foliage stripper storm - wind and rain that will introduce much of Vermont to stick season.  However, pretty foliage will continue in and near the Champlain Valley and warmer southern valleys even after the storm. 

That said, some extended forecasts give us a shot at some of the coldest mid-October weather we've seen in years. Stay tuned on that! 

 

Hurricane Isaias Trashed Florida Panhandle, Wind, Storm Surge Damage Widespread

Hurricane Isaias ripping off the roof of 
a hotel Saturday evening. 

People in the Florida Panhandle and in Alabama have started picking up the mess left by Hurricane Isaias. 

So far, at least four people have been reported dead in the storm. 

The hurricane came ashore around Destin, Florida at around 8 p.m. with top winds of 105 mph. As of this morning, streets were littered with debris, roofing material, fallen trees and wires. Many of those streets were also flooded.. 

Winds gusted to 118 mph in Jay, Florida, 117 mph at Oriole Beach, Florida and 116 mph in Santa Rosa Sound and 114 mph in Milton, Florida

Those gusts were caused by a sting jet, which occurred when drier air ran into an abrupt western edge of the hurricane. That dry air caused rapidly sinking evaporated cool air to rush downward from atop the storm down onto these communities.  

The storm sure was about five feet, a little short of the six to nine feet forecasters had anticipated. That's good news for sure. Isaias arrived a couple hours before high tide, which helped minimize the surge. 

Still, storm surges caused damage in Destin, Fort Walton Beach and other seaside communities. 

It could have all been even worse. Strong upper level winds - thanks El Nino - ripped apart the core of Isaias just as it neared the shoreline. This prevented the hurricane from intensifying more before reaching Florida and Alabama. 

As of early Saturday nearly 900,000 customers in Florida and Alabama had no electricity. 

Isaias was the first Atlantic hurricane of the season. It has been more than 100 years since the Atlantic got its first hurricane this late in the season. Strong upper level winds caused by El Nino has torn apart and destroyed tropical storms that have tried to form so far this year. 

The remnants of Isaias were moving into the Appalachian Mountains Sunday afternoon. At least one tornado touched down in South Carolina, and the area was under threat for more twisters. 

Gusty winds and flood watches continued in parts of the Southeast, too.

Here in Vermont, rainfall from the remnants of Isaias will range from maybe three quarters of an inch in far southern parts of the state to less than a tenth an inch near the Canadian border. In between, central Vermont should see a quarter to a half inch, give or take. At least that's what forecasts issued Sunday afternoon suggest. 

The rain should come through Sunday night.  

A Gorgeous Vermont Saturday, Isais Clouds Arrive Sunday; Some Rain Sunday Night/Monday

Dark clouds and late afternoon sun lights up trees with
yellow leaves Friday in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Today dawned clear and chilly in Vermont, heralding a classic fall day. As we've long expected, we'll enjoy a gorgeous Vermont landscape, with tourists crawling everywhere. 

Stay off the roads in tourist towns if you don't want to sit in traffic. If you want to leaf peep, take the back roads.

Under the sunshine, temperatures will rise only into the 50s, just a bit cooler than average. Frost will whiten lawns in much of the state by tomorrow morning. 

Some high clouds from former Hurricane Isaias were already making it into southern Vermont this morning. They'll head north, so we'll see some pretty high clouds in the blue sky today. 

Enjoy the day. Here's an update at what's coming up next.

SUNDAY

We'll see increasing cloudiness as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias approach. Isaias roared ashore near Dentin, Florida, with top winds of 105 mph. There's lots of damage in that area, as you'd imagine. 

By the time what was Isaias approaches the Northeast, it will just be a weak, wet storm. Rain will roll into Vermont Sunday night.

Since it still looks like it's going by to our south, we'll have a range of rainfall amounts. For now, continues to look like we'll have a half inch to an inch of rain south, a quarter to a half inch rain central and as little as a few hundredth of an inch near the Canadian border. 

The computer models are still disagreeing on exactly how much rain will fall. Some models give less rain, some a little more. We'll look forward to updates. But whatever happens, it won't be a huge storm. Certainly no flood risk.  Southern Vermont will get some beneficial rain, northern Vermont will get dampened a little, which is better than nothing.

MONDAY 

Many of us will have they day off, and it will be an OK day. A few lingering showers might drop a few raindrops early in the day.  Overall, Monday will stay mostly cloudy and mild, with highs in the 60s. 

NEXT WEEK

The weather pattern continues to favor dry weather, but tropical moisture sometimes benefits us. One cold front boosted by the remnants of a Pacific hurricane gave us some extra rain. Former Hurricane Isaias will give us at least a little rain tomorrow. 

And a new cold front will come in Tuesday. It won't be that impressive, but it will get a little moisture boost from Tropical Storm Rachel, which this weekend is causing tidal surges and inland flooding in southern California. 

Rainfall amounts again will probably only amount to a quarter inch or so, give or take. Not much, but more than we would receive without Rachel. 

Then, the rest of the week will be dry, with somewhat cooler than average weather. 

Isaias About To Slam Far Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama

Hurricane Isaias approaching the far western Florida
panhandle last Friday afternoon. 

 The Gulf Coast, especially around the western Florida panhandle was bracing for Hurricane Isaias this evening. 

As of 5 p.m., the hurricane was starting to weaken, as expected. Strong upper level winds from the southwest are beginning to stretch the hurricane apart. 

Because of this, the most intense part of the storm will be the northern eye wall, just before the center of the storm comes ashore near Pensacola, Florida around 8 pm. 

Top winds were still at 115 mph at 5 p.m. today.  Although Isaias will continue to slowly weaken as it approaches shore in the next few hours. 

But it won't have time to fall apart. The National Hurricane Center says it will be an unusual gusty hurricane when it hits. 

Storm surges could reach nine feet, so they will see a lot of damage along parts of the Gulf Coast

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 mph from the center, so it won't be a  huge area hit by the worst winds. 

Flood watches were in effect through large swaths of the Southeast. Tornadoes are also a good possibility in the Southeast, too. 

As the storm approached, roads last night like Interstate 10 in southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle were gridlocked as people fled the then-strengthening hurricane. Video showed people sitting for hours at a standstill as car crashes blocked I-10 westbound in Baldwin County, Alabama. 

By evening, it was already stormy in the western Florida Panhandle. Live video from Navarre Beach, Florida at 5:45 p.m. showed a burgeoning storm surge and increasing winds. 

Isaias will spread strong winds all the way north through Tennessees and western North Carolina overnight and part of Sunday.

The remnants of Isaias will be in the central Appalachians during the day Sunday. For us in Vermont, it will throw rain our way.  It looks like southern Vermont could get a half inch of rain, give or take, with very little in the far north. 

 

Rain Continues To Mostly Avoid Vermont; Only Light Rain From Isaias

The clouds over St. Albans, Vermont looked dramatic at
times, but despite a few scattered showers, it was a 
rather nice day - partly sunny and mild. The weather
in Vermont will be variable over the next few days, 
but we won't have a huge amount of rain. 

Thursday turned out to be a beautiful day in Vermont, despite a few scattered showers.  We had partly sunny skies above, beautiful fallen leaves underfoot and an orange and yellow landscape in between.

We need the rain, but the nice weather is easy to take. Especially this time of  year.  

For now, we'll dodge raindrops from time to time, but for most of the next week or so, we'll have nice fall weather. We'll  just have to deal with temperatures bouncing up and down, like it so often does in Vermont. 

Here are the details:

TODAY

It'll be cooler than yesterday, but nothing that wild for October. We'll see more convective showers here and there, but they won't amount to much. Many of us will see no rain at all, or at most sprinkles. Isolated spots could have some graupel or pea-size hail.  It's easy to produce that this time of year as it's getting cooler. 

Highs will be in the 50s, so get that fleece out. 

As temperatures fall tonight, a few flurries might blow through the mountain summits. Cold clouds could ice up the stunted trees atop the tallest mountains. It might be the closest we come this year to "snoliage" - white on the mountain tops, pretty colorful trees lower down. 

SATURDAY

If there is any "snoliage," Saturday will be a great day to see it. Sunny and crisp, with highs in the 50s again. The tourists will be swarming Vermont, so if you want to go leaf peeping, find some back roads. There's plenty of 'em. 

SUNDAY

We'll eke out another nice day. We'll have some increasing clouds, and increasing south winds. It'll be a little warmer with highs in the 60s. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

Having trashed the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama Friday night, the remnants of Isaias will arrive in the Northeast. By then, Isaias will be a faint shadow of its former ferocious self.  Since it will pass well south of Vermont. 

It will probably spread some light rain across Vermont Sunday night and early Monday.  Early guesses suggest modest amounts of rain. Early guesses give a mediocre 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain through most of Vermont; less than a quarter inch of rain north of Route 2 and less than a tenth of an inch near the Canadian border.

NEXT WEEK

Another cold front will spread some more showers across Vermont on Tuesday. Again, it won't be a huge storm. After a couple cool, pleasant days, another round of showers could come through Friday. No extremes are on the horizon.  El Nino is not making the weather scary just yet, at least not here in Vermont. 

Strengthening Isaias Menacing Gulf Coast; Remnants Still Largely Missing Vermont, Tropical Storm Rachel To Harass SCal

Hurricane Isaias late this afternoon in the central Gulf
of Mexico. High upper winds are pulling clouds from
the storm's center, but its core is maintaining
itself and strengthening.

Hurricane Isaias continued to strengthen this afternoon in the central Gulf of Mexico and by late afternoon, sustained winds had increased to 100 mph.  That makes it a pretty strong Category 2 hurricane. 

It might get stronger yet.  

The hurricane has made its expected turn to the northeast. It will then turn directly north, aiming at the extreme western Florida panhandle. Or maybe in Alabama, at Dauphin Island and Mobile. 

Meteorologists are still struggling with how strong Isaias will get, when it will eventually start to weaken, and how strong it will be when it crosses the coastline. 

Thank goodness for El Nino. That phenomenon has already made potential hurricanes this year mere tropical storms, thanks to strong upper level winds. 

Pretty strong winds area already blowing atop Isaias. But it looks like it will continue to strengthen overnight. Isaias will pass over the warmest water in the Gulf, which should fuel its power despite the high altitude winds trying to tear it apart.

By tomorrow, the National Hurricane Center says the upper level wins will get even stronger. Which means Isaias will probably begin to weaken some as it approaches the coast. Still, as the NHC says. "Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfill, and strong gusty winds are expected well inland after the center crosses the coast."

Evacuation orders are in effect for Dauphin Island in Alabama, and in Okaloosa and Escambia counties in Florida. 

Flood watches are in effect in large parts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. 

Vermont Effects

It still looks like the remnants of Isaias will throw some rain at Vermont toward Sunday. It still looks like it'll be a glancing blow. Computer models are disagreeing how much rain will make it into Vermont, so we'll have to stay tuned. It won't be a super heavy rainfall, though.  

WEST COAST RACHEL

 Tropical Storm Rachel, well southwest of California today, will weaken as it heads toward Baja California or far southern California by Saturday.  Normally a tropical storm as far offshore as Rachel.  was Thursday will have dissipated by the time it reaches the coast. The water off the coast is usually very cool, which kills hurricanes. 

But the water temperature offshore from Baja California and California is much warmer than normal, so Rachel won't weaken as quickly as you'd expect, It could still be a weak tropical storm by the time it nears the extreme southern end of California. 

Southern California, along with most of Arizona, Utah and southern Nevada could see some significant flash flooding from Rachel or its remnants over the weekend. 

The southern California coast is also under threat from rough surf and some minor coastal flooding. 

At least Rachel will end a record heat wave in the Desert Southwest. Los Angeles had three consecutive days over 100 degrees between Saturday and Monday. By next week, highs in L.A will only be in the low 70s.. 

Scattered Showers In Vermont Could Contain Rumbles Of Thunder; Isaias Rain Getting More Iffy

Foliage isn't peak in the Champlain Valley yet, but
it's peak elsewhere in Vermont. Best day to enjoy
the views will be Saturday. 

A little after midnight here in St. Albans, Vermont, I heard a rumble of thunder. 

That proves how dynamic the weather system is that's going through. Unfortunately, the fronts and such with this system are also moisture-starved, so don't count on much rain. Which we need. 

The rest of the day is more of the same. Scattered showers, maybe another rumble of thunder. A couple places might even see a few tiny hailstones. 

But many of us will get no rain at all, or just sprinkles. The best chance of rain is in the northern mountains. It looks like everyone will get less than a tenth of an inch of rain, with maybe a little more than that in the Green Mountains north of Mount Mansfield. 

At least it will be pretty mild, with highs in the low to mid 60s.  

The atmosphere's fast flow from the west-northwest ensures that we'll have lots of changes in the weather, but no extreme changes.  Which means we won't get a lot of rain, either. But at least some showers are in the cards. 

Let's get into what's going on for the next few days, as we always do.

FRIDAY

You know how I just said that things will change pretty fast? Well here we go. Sure, we'll have scattered showers like we did today, mostly during the first half of the day.  But no thunder. And it will feel much colder than today. 

Again, some places, especially south, could get nothing, or sprinkles. The north will be cloudier with up to a tenth of an inch of rain in a couple spots. And, the summits of the northern Green Mountains will probably have a  few snow showers. 

Tis the season. It snowed a little atop Mount Mansfield Monday and Tuesday. They'll have a little more Friday morning. Start digging your skis and snowboards out. That season is coming. Not yet, but we're getting there. 

Anyway the broader valleys will have some sun mixed with the clouds, so we'll manage to get into the 50s for highs, with some 40s in the Northeast Kingdom.

Another frost and freeze is likely Friday night, including in the Champlain Valley.  

SATURDAY

We're in for another perfect peak foliage leaf peeping weekend day, seemingly custom ordered once again by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing.

It'll be sunny and crisp, with highs in the 50s. Maybe near 60 in the lower Connecticut River valley. 

The gorgeous trees and the gorgeous weather might be too much of a good thing in some towns. Stowe and Woodstock, and a few other tourist towns will be absolute zoos.  And if you're looking or a hotel room anywhere in Vermont Saturday night, good luck!

SUNDAY

Another day with big changes. It'll be mostly cloudy, and much warmer. The high pressure system that we believe will give us a gorgeous Saturday will be off the coast, and milder air will be pushing north toward us. 

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will approach us, too. The promise of needed rain will come with it. But remember that west-northwest flow I talked about? It looks like it will shunt the best moisture with Isaias off to our south. 

There's still questions about how far north Isaias's rain will come. Early guesses are there could be some sort of decent rains in southern Vermont, but lighter rain up north. The amount of rain we'll ultimately see is still in doubt. Stay tuned for updates. 

It'll be warm, with highs getting up to near 70 degrees.

MONDAY

Columbus Day will also be generally cloudy and warm, with highs up in the 60s. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

More big changes, as it looks like it will turn much colder, probably colder than tomorrow will be. We're on a downhill race toward winter. More showers will accompany the cold front. There could also be more mountain snow showers as temperatures drop.