Vermont Dry Spell Continues; Wind Increases Fire Risk Today, Tomorrow

The last gold leaves of the season cling to a tree
under yesterday's clouds on Wednesday in St. 
Albans, Vermont. 

Technically the long dry spell ended in Burlington yesterday. 

As expected, almost all the clouds we had Wednesday yielded just virga - which is rain that falls from clouds but dries up on the way down. 

However, a thicker cloud passed over parts of the Champlain Valley toward evening, and that yielded a whopping 0.01 inches of rain on Burlington. In other words, nothing that would change how dry it is out there. 

TODAY

The fire risk is even higher than it has been lately, mostly because the winds will pick up today. We'll get into it a bit. 

Skies have cleared, and we had mostly a blue sky dawn, with a little haze and valley fog. Some places started the day with calm winds, and others, mostly in the Champlain Valley, had somer south winds. 

That has led to a wild range in temperature. At 8 a.m., it was near 30 degrees east of the Green Mountains. Meanwhile, it was 51 degrees in Burlington.  

Temperatures will even out nicely by this afternoon. And it will be a warm one. Possibly the warmest day until next spring. Maybe. Highs should get into the 60s. Maybe 70 degrees in the warmest valleys. 

The real problem is the wind. The humidity remains low, and winds will increase from the south. The fallen leaves are now crispy and dry, and the weeds that grew all summer are dead and dry. We've already had some brush fires this week. With the gusts today, the chances that that fires could get out of hand have gone way up. 

So today's a good day to not thrown your cigarette butt out the window, or do any backyard fires. Be careful out there.

FRIDAY

Another cold front will come through late tonight or very early tomorrow. There might be another sprinkle or two overnight in northern Vermont and in the Green Mountains. But again, nothing to end the dry spell. 

Cold air will be flooding in, but it won't be as cold as the last round. Highs should hold in the 50s. But instability clouds will clutter the skies, and a few sprinkles will dot the northern Green Mountains.  However, any sprinkles won't make a difference. 

It'll be breezy, this time from the west and northwest. So again, fires that start would spread quickly.

SATURDAY

We're back to the pattern we've been in for a couple weeks. The day will start frosty and cold. By afternoon, we should up near 50 degrees, maybe low 50s in the warmer, broader valleys.  Probably wall to wall sunshine, too. 

SUNDAY

Another day, another repeat. Cold and frost to start, with sunshine dominating. There might be a few clouds up there in the sky, but overall, another gorgeous day.  It'll be a few degrees warmer than Saturday, with highs up in the 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

The dry weather will continue well into the week. The weather pattern will eventually change, but it will be slow to untangle. It still looks like it might finally rain - really rain - toward the end of the week, but it's hard to promise anything yet. The computer models are still arguing fiercely with each other over this. Vernon