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| Early autumn calls starting to show under an overcast skies near Georgia, Vermont Thursday. Clouds were thicker than forecast yesterday. |
I'm not dissing National Weather Service meteorologists, they're working super hard. They're professional and dedicated
But I think Trump-inspired cuts to the NWS might be interfering with picky details in the computer models. Not enough data is hitting those computer thingamajigs.
Which might be creating more than picky mistakes in some weather forecasts.
I don't have any proof of this. And I know I'm oversimplifying a potential problem here. Weather forecasts are almost never 100 percent accurate. Nature does what nature does. Nature still holds some secrets that meteorologists and other scientists haven't uncovered yet.
But it seems that in the past week, forecast misses have been coming almost every day. I hope somebody out there is researching the effects of Trump's cuts to the NWS and science in general to see that's all messing with weather forecasting
This rant is inspired by yesterday's weather. Broad brush, the forecast was correct. It was supposed to be relatively warm, relatively humid for this time of year, and that's what happened.
But it was still cooler than forecast - near 70 instead of well up in the 70s. Instead of variable cloudiness a thick, dark overcast hung over at least parts of Vermont for a good portion of the day, mostly in the afternoon.
Now, what's going on with the weather over the next couple of days looks pretty straight-forward, so I have hopes that the forecasts for the next couple of days will turn out pretty accurate. Let's get into it:
TODAY
Dawn broke today much like a sort of muggy July morning. Temperatures at 6 a.m. were in the mid to upper 60s in most spots. Montpelier was at 70 degrees. Rutland was at 71.
Don't worry, it won't be a hot day, far from it. A cold front was making its way into Vermont early this morning with a batch of showers.
I think this would have been an almost dry cold frontal passage, if not for Hurricane Polo. That hurricane came ashore early this week a zillion miles away from us in Mexico's Baja California.
But its remnants spread flooding rains into the Desert Southwest and Plains, and injected moisture along the front all the way up into our neck of the woods.
Unfortunately for those of us who want and need a lot of rain, this won't be the moment. The front is moving fast enough so that it won't have time to deposit much rain here.
Most of us will receive a half inch or less. Storm totals will be maybe a quarter inch in many areas, give or take.Southern Vermont, especially the southeast, will probably get less than a tenth of an inch.
The fast movement of the cold front will mean rain should pretty much be over in northwest Vermont by early afternoon, and mid to late afternoon elsewhere.
Temperatures should hold steady or fall for the rest of the day as cooler air comes in and mostly cloudy skies linger after the bulk of the run has ended.
SATURDAY
We're still looking at a classic autumn day. We'll have bright sunshine under blue skies. with highs within a few degrees either side of 60 degrees. Perfect conditions for leaf peeping, pumpkin shopping, fall festivals, you name it.
Watch out for frost overnight. Carry in your sensitive plants that are still out there. All my sensitive tropical-ish plants on my deck are coming in, mostly because of what's coming next week. More on that in a bit.
SUNDAY
The day will start with patchy fog and frost. Here's a hint for leaf peepers and photographers: Get out there early, while it's still foggy. There's something magical about the sun breaking through the fog amid the multi-colored tree.s
Some clouds will come in during the day, but it will still be nice. Highs should get into the low 60s. Maybe mid-60s in the warmer valleys.
MONDAY
A sharp cold front will come through, with maybe a few showers and more solid blast of chilly air. Highs should only reach the 50s as gusty northwest winds blowing through. The day could start out relatively mild, but it should turn out to be a cold day. I wouldn't even be surprised if a few snow flurries grace the mountain peaks.
Monday night will be cold, with a potentially widespread freeze, except right near Lake Champlain.
TUESDAY
Another prematurely chilly day. Early guesses are the sun will be out, but highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. This isn't incredibly cold for early October - we've had highs in the upper 30s to near 40 this time of year.
But it will be a shock to the system. Especially since recent Octobers have been so warm. On the same dates that this cool snap will hit, it was in the 80s last year.
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