Rain Misses Most Of Vermont Again, Beautiful Day Today, Brief Cold Snap Early Week

A nice sunset after a dark, rainy day in St. Albans, 
Vermont on Friday. While far northwestern Vermont
got some decent rains, the showers largely
missed most of the rest of the state. 

 Yesterday's cold front only managed to bring substantial rain to far northwestern Vermont. 

My unofficial rain gauge up in St. Albans caught a very nice 1.02 inches of rain. Burlington had a respectable 0.49. But everywhere else - pfft.  

We knew southeastern Vermont would miss out, but central parts of the state did, too. Montpelier managed to receive just 0.16 inches. St. Johnsbury and Rutland had less than a tenth of an inch.

Very little rain is in the cards for the next week. Most of us need the rain, but we're still going to have to wait awhile for it. 

On the bright side, the rest of today will be, well, bright. A perfect fall day, really. Head out to leaf peep, but stay off the traditional tourist roads - they'll be jammed for sure. 

Highs should reach within either side of 60 degrees. The cool air will prompt frost in some areas tonight, but I think the Champlain Valley is mostly safe. For now. That'll change soon. More on that in a bit. 

TOMORROW

Another nice one. Patchy fog and frost early in the day, as is traditional in Vermont for early October.  We might have some clouds come in during the afternoon, but overall it will be pleasant, with highs in the 60s. 

MONDAY

Here's where things take a cold turn. A cold front will come through in the morning. It won't have much moisture to work with, but it will be a very dynamic system which could be enough to set off some light showers. 

But the real news is the blast of cold air coming in. Depending on when the cold front actually comes through, at least part of the day will prove to be a windy, cold day. You're going to want to dig some of your warmer clothes out from the back of the closet. This will be no means be record-setting, but it will be our first minimal hint of winter. 

The timing of the front will determine when it gets cold on Monday. Early guesses are that temperatures will fall through the 50s in the afternoon. 

By evening, temperatures will be crashing, northwest winds could gust to 30 mph. Home heaters and wood stoves will go on for the first time this autumn. The last vestiges of the cold front's moisture could throw a few snowflakes onto the mountain summits, or coat the stunted trees atop those mountains with a bit of rime ice. 

Monday will be a very good day to put on your warm coat and do an emergency frost harvest in your garden. For most places, except right near Lake Champlain, will very likely see the growing season decidedly end. Your garden will be a wilted mess by either Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

TUESDAY

Winds will continue to blow Monday night. The winds will prevent frost, but a lot of places will get below freezing, so that would kill remaining garden plants. 

During the day, the wind will continue to blow, adding a wind chill to the air. But the sun will be out. Call it a chilly fall day. Highs will stay in the low 50s, give or take. 

Tuesday night will go below freezing everywhere except maybe right near Lake Champlain.  Colder spots will go well into the 20s. 

REST OF NEXT WEEK

A warming trend. Nothing wild. Just back up to near normal temperatures. We'll have at least some sun every day, and there's a good chance most if not all days Wednesday through Friday will be at least partly sunny, if not clear. 

The cold snap and wind Monday and Tuesday probably will have ended the foliage season up in the Northeast Kingdom, but the rest of the state should be dressed very nicely in fall colors. The good think about a lack of storms is that high winds and heavy rain won't be around to strip off the leaves before we get a good look at them.  

Showers Dampening Vermont Ahead Of Classic Autumn Weekend

Early autumn calls starting to show under an overcast 
skies near Georgia, Vermont Thursday.  Clouds were
thicker than forecast yesterday. 

The weather forecasts seemed to be creaky lately.  

I'm not dissing National Weather Service meteorologists, they're working super hard. They're professional and dedicated 

But I think Trump-inspired cuts to the NWS might be interfering with picky details in the computer models. Not enough data is hitting those computer thingamajigs. 

Which might be creating more than picky mistakes in some weather forecasts.

I don't have any proof of this. And I know I'm oversimplifying a potential problem here.  Weather forecasts are almost never 100 percent accurate. Nature does what nature does. Nature still holds some secrets that meteorologists and other scientists haven't uncovered yet. 

But it seems that in the past week, forecast misses have been coming almost every day.   I hope somebody out there is researching the effects of Trump's cuts to the NWS and science in general to see that's all messing with weather forecasting

This rant is inspired by yesterday's weather. Broad brush, the forecast was correct. It was supposed to be relatively warm, relatively humid for this time of year, and that's what happened. 

But it was still cooler than forecast - near 70 instead of well up in the 70s.  Instead of variable cloudiness a thick, dark overcast hung over at least parts of Vermont for a good portion of the day, mostly in the afternoon. 

Now, what's going on with the weather over the next couple of days looks pretty straight-forward, so I have hopes that the forecasts for the next couple of days will turn out pretty accurate. Let's get into it: 

TODAY

Dawn broke today much like a sort of muggy July morning. Temperatures at 6 a.m. were in the mid to upper 60s in most spots. Montpelier was at 70 degrees. Rutland was at 71. 

Don't worry, it won't be a hot day, far from it. A cold front was making its way into Vermont early this  morning with a batch of showers. 

I think this would have been an almost dry cold frontal passage, if not for Hurricane Polo. That hurricane came ashore early this week a zillion miles away from us in Mexico's Baja California. 

But its remnants spread flooding rains into the Desert Southwest and Plains, and injected moisture along the front all the way up into our neck of the woods. 

Unfortunately for those of us who want and need a  lot of rain, this won't be the moment. The front is moving fast enough so that it won't have time to deposit much rain here. 

Most of us will receive a half inch or less. Storm totals will be maybe a quarter inch in many areas, give or take.Southern Vermont, especially the southeast, will probably get less than a tenth of an inch. 

The fast movement of the cold front will mean rain should pretty much be over in northwest Vermont by early afternoon, and mid to late afternoon elsewhere. 

Temperatures should hold steady or fall for the rest of the day as cooler air comes in and mostly cloudy skies linger after the bulk of the run has ended.

SATURDAY

We're still looking at a classic autumn day.  We'll have bright sunshine under blue skies. with highs within a few degrees either side of 60 degrees. Perfect conditions for leaf peeping, pumpkin shopping, fall festivals, you name it. 

Watch out for frost overnight. Carry in your sensitive plants that are still out there.  All my sensitive tropical-ish plants on my deck are coming in, mostly because of what's coming next week. More on that in a bit. 

SUNDAY

The day will start with patchy fog and frost. Here's a hint for leaf peepers and photographers: Get out there early, while it's still foggy. There's something magical about the sun breaking through the fog amid the multi-colored tree.s

Some clouds will come in during the day, but it will still be nice. Highs should get into the low 60s. Maybe mid-60s in the warmer valleys. 

MONDAY

A sharp cold front will come through, with maybe a few showers and more solid blast of chilly air. Highs should only reach the 50s as gusty northwest winds blowing through. The day could start out relatively mild, but it should turn out to be a cold day.  I wouldn't even be surprised if a few snow flurries grace the mountain peaks. 

Monday night will be cold, with a potentially widespread freeze, except right near Lake Champlain. 

TUESDAY

Another prematurely chilly day. Early guesses are the sun will be out, but highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. This isn't incredibly cold for early October -  we've had highs in the upper 30s to near 40 this time of year.  

But it will be a shock to the system. Especially since recent Octobers have been so warm. On the same dates that this cool snap will hit, it was in the 80s last year. 

A Cold, Damp Vermont Sunday, And A Cool Autumnal Week

Today's rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service in South Burlington. Though it
will be a rainy day, we ultimately won't get all that
much. The driest part of the state, the Northeast
Kingdom, will unfortunately see the least

 Saturday in Vermont felt like mid-October, with crisp air and bright blue skies, at least in  northern Vermont.

 High clouds were already starting to increase in southern Vermont. Those clouds were a sign of a very chilly Sunday coming in. 

The clouds were in place over Vermont as dawn broke today and rain was spreading in. Light rain should fall all day, though eastern Vermont should see mostly dry weather until mid to late morning. 

All this should hold daytime temperatures down in the 50s. As noted yesterday, this will be the coldest September 20 high temperatures since 1990, when the high was 53. 

The coldest high temperature on this date was 50 degrees in 1962  (The year 1962 was among the coldest on record in Vermont, as measured in Burlington). 

If it's going to rain, you want it to be beneficial, a real soaker. Unfortunately that won't be the case. Instead, it will mostly be annoying light rain, drizzle and sprinkles.  The rain might pick up at times to briefly feel drenching, but it won't be really make everything sopping wet. 

Only a thin top layer of the ground will get wet. There won't be enough rain to soak deeper. The Northeast Kingdom most needs the rain the most, and they'll get the least.

Some places in the NEK will receive less than a quarter inch of rain. Most of the state will see a modest quarter to a half inch. A few places in the far south could get a little more than a half inch

We're setting ourselves up for a cool week, too. Daytime highs won't be as cold as today, but we'll have to watch the nights for the risk of frost in a few spots. .

MONDAY

It will probably take its time clearing up during the day. Overall, most of us will have a mostly cloudy day, with more sun maybe in the Connecticut River valley. With cool north breezes blowing, it'll stay cool, with highs within a few degrees either side of 60.

 Some clearing Monday night will send temperatures down into the 35 to 42 degree range for most of us. Colder valleys could have some frost. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Massive, cool high pressure will set up to our north in Quebec, while low pressure is stuck in the Mid-Atlantic states or just offshore. This should keep us dry and chilly through the week. Some models take the Mid-Atlantic storm, or at least some of its moisture our way towards the end of the week. That's tossup right now, so we'll have to see how that plays out. 

Chances are, unfortunately, that we get little rain from that storm. But, we shall see!

Autumn Cool Weather To Make a VERY Noticeable Arrival In Vermont Over The Next Several Days

Photo of Hard'ack Hill in St Albans taken yesterday, a
beautiful, cool-ish September Day. If I told you I'd taken
this photo in July, you'd believe me, as the trees are 
still entirely green. That will start to change as we
begin a spell of notable cooler than normal 
weather that will last at least a week

This morning was another "coldest so far this season," and we should expect a lot of that type of morning as autumn advances.  

Burlington was at 41 degrees as of 7 a.m. today, the coldest it's been since May 12. Most of Vermont was in the mid and upper 30s at that hour. Morrisville was at 33, so they likely had a touch of frost. 

I've talked in past posts about that amazing streak of steady weather we've had. High temperatures have ranged only between 69 an 82 degrees since August 10.

 I don't think we've ever seen anything like that, lasting this long. That streak is about to end. It was definitely inevitable.  It ain't summer anymore. 

In early September, the normal temperature was slowly drifting down, reluctantly leaving the summer season. Now, average temperatures are cratering. At the start of the week, the average temperature for the date was 64. Today it's 61.5 degrees. By the last day of the month it'll be 56.5 degrees. 

It's getting cool fast. Despite sunshine, temperatures will only recover to the 60s today. Still nice, but cool. And then it gets worse.

SUNDAY

This will be a shock to the system. Clouds will have arrived and rain will be overspreading Vermont.  Forecasts have become a little more optimistic for statewide rain, instead of mostly just hitting the south. 

It won't be a super soaker, and it won't really ease the drought in the Northeast Kingdom. Especially since that area will get the least rain out of this, maybe a quarter inch. Otherwise, the northern half of Vermont is currently in for a quarter to a half inch, with southern Vermont seeing a half inch to an inch. 

While all this is going on, cold air will be feeding down from Quebec. That means high temperatures might only reach the 50s. The National Weather Service says it might well be the coldest daytime temperatures for this time of year since 1990. 

It this were late October or early November, this situation might have been an early seasons snowstorm. It's way too early for that. So not to worry, it'll just be a chilly rain. 

Today will be a good day to dig out all the fleece and hats and warm pants out of the closet. Tomorrow will be a good day to stay inside and watch football or binge watch Netflix or something. 

MONDAY-FRIDAY

A chilly week is ahead.  The mountainsides in Vermont are still mostly green. But a long spell of cool weather that's starting today and lasting all week will really begin to change that. 

Next week is a fantastic recipe for setting the stage for a potentially beautiful fall foliate season. We'll have lots of sun, with cool temperatures. The colder valleys will likely have frost each morning, at least Monday through Wednesday, if not beyond. Highs should be in the 58 to 65 degree range, cool for this time of year. 

Meanwhile a very slow moving storm looks like it might form and intensify off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Early guesses are it will become the first nor'easter of the season.  The weather pattern is hard to predict. Will the cool high pressure system to our north keep the storm away from Vermont? Or will it spread clouds and a chilly rain our way toward the end of the week? As always, stay tuned! 

Repeated Rain Chances Keep Heading South Of Vermont

This is subject to change, but this is an guess as to how
much rain will fall between now and Saturday morning
As you can see northern areas largely miss out.
All the good soakers are going mostly to our south

 We could surely use more rain in Vermont. A series of weak, but very wet disturbance are about to turn much of the Northeast soggy. But the Green Mountain State looks like it will largely miss out. 

Southern Vermont might still eke out a decent wetting over the next several days. But unless there's an abrupt change in the forecast, northern Vermont will miss out. 

The first disturbance came in yesterday with ominous afternoon clouds in the north which amounted to......about three raindrops. 

It seems like days in advance, we think we're going to get a soaking, then it turns out not to be a big deal.Thi

Let's walk through the forecast;

TODAY

The warmest day of the week. Then gloom overhead should break up somewhat to become a variably cloudy day. Highs should get well into the 70s, with some banana belt warm valleys touching 80 degrees. One of summer's last gasps. 

THURSDAY

We're in a squeeze play between a front to the south that will have a little disturbance riding along it and a cold front coming in from the  north. 

This setup looks like it will create some rain in the south. But questions remain as to how far north this might get. Varying computer models disagree so we might have some surprises. For now. maybe a quarter to a third of an inch of rain might come down in southern Vermont. That would gradually taper off to a trace to a tenth of an inch north. 

Again, results may vary. 

We're into September now, so we're more likely to see just plain rain rather than scattered showers and thunderstorms. So, probably no thunder tomorrow. Highs should make it into the low and mid 70s for most of us so not bad. 

FRIDAY

We'll squeeze in a classic autumn day. We should have sunshine with highs in the 60s to near 70. A brisk northwest breeze will add a chilly bite to the air. Humidity will plummet, says the National Weather Service, setting us up for a chilly night with frost possible in colder places again

SATURDAY

Dawn Saturday is looking a little colder than the nippy one we experienced yesterday.  Just a couple degrees makes a big difference on whether you'll see frost or not. Only one or two isolated areas had frost yesterday. Saturday morning, this frost might hit a few more of the colder hollows of northern and central Vermont. 

I imagine some places might end up falling under a frost advisory. Stay tuned for updates.  The rest of the day should be more typical September. Highs in the 60s with maybe some increasing clouds. 

The next rainy system looks like it would arrive Saturday night and Sunday. Early indications are this one could, once again, go by to our south, but there's plenty of time for that forecast to change

Changeable Vermont Weather Coming Up But Questions On HOW It Will Change

Henry the Weather Dog sploots down
in the shade, resting for a bit while
playing at the dog park yesterday. Henry
expects more sunshine but cooler
weather on his trip to the park today.

We're starting out or Friday with mostly clear skies, except for some lingering clouds near the Canadian border.  

Those clouds should break up a little bit as we go through the day. The blue skies will be dotted by a few pretty clouds much of their day. 

September usually brings big bubbles of high pressure drifting by. Those feature spells of bright, sunny, cool weather, interspersed with cloudy periods. Those are the cold fronts that separate the big bubbles of high pressure.

The problem is teasing out the timing of everything, and that's going to be the problem this week. The cool high pressure systems from Canada will compete with attempts by humid, warmer air making attempts to rain on us. 

Let's parse it out.

TODAY

The easy part of the forecast.  We'll have a gorgeous day. Mostly sunny skies and highs within a few degrees either side of 70. Cool breezes in northern Vermont will perhaps make you want to reach for the fleece jacket or hoodie, if you spend time in the shade.

SATURDAY

Very frequently now, we'll have new "coldest mornings of the year so far."  We have a shot at that around dawn tomorrow. We'll start with temperatures in the 40s, with plenty of low and mid 40s away from Lake Champlain.  A few of the coldest spots in the Northeast Kingdom will probably get into the upper 30s. 

Places near Lake Champlain will probably stay near 50. Dense fog will lace the river valleys. 

During the day, south winds will pick up, boosting temperatures well into the 70s. The winds could get a little gusty on and near Lake Champlain, so it might be a little tricky for boats on the lake. 

In southern Vermont, clouds will begin to increase as a weak but wet storm moves up the Eastern Seaboard. 

SUNDAY

It looks like the weak storm with its relatively heavy rain will pass south of Vermont, passing through southern New England. Clouds will cover Vermont. Meanwhile, a cold front will be coming at us from the west. 

Rain will overspread southern Vermont Saturday night and Sunday morning. There could be a half inch or more of rain in Bennington and Windham counties. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe storms in much of Vermont, suggesting there could be isolated instances of damaging winds. However, with all the clouds around, it's still doubtful we'll see any real thunderstorms. 

The cold front is most likely to produce rain in northern Vermont. In the end, northern and southern Vermont should get at least a decent wetting, and central Vermont might slip through between the two areas of rain and get little. 

This is iffy, so expect changes in the forecast. Bottom line: Not a really nice day, but how that will play out still has question marks. 

MONDAY

Another big bubble of high pressure looks like it will come in with mostly clear, cool weather. Monday will hopefully be a carbon copy of Saturday. We shall see.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

We'll be near the battleground between those cool, big high pressure systems from Canada, and the lingering hot, humid weather in the southern half of the U.S.  That torrid summer weather is really hanging tough, odd for September, but we should see little if any of it. 

Instead, we'll be prone to periods of rain as weather disturbances ride along the border between the cool autumn air to the north and the hot, humid air to the south. 

I'm not sure, but chances are much of the rain could pass to our south. But, if we get lucky, we could also see at least one soaking rain, which would be nice. No promises there, though 

It's possible the humid air could sneak in briefly, but if it does, it won't last long.  Updates to next week's forecasts will seem constant, and we might not know exactly what kind of weather we'll have until the day before the weather actually hits. 

Climate Central Study: Autumns In U.S. Getting Warmer, Which Shouldn't Be A Surprise

A warm autumn day in my backyard. Photo was taken
on October 24, 2024. In past decades, the trees would
have been almost completely leafless by 
that time of year. 

Autumn is the new summer.  

That's an exaggeration, of course, but those brisk autumn breezes are fading under the weight of climate change. Summer weather is lingering longer across the United States. 

Climate Central has the receipts.

According to their latest report, autumn warmed in 98 percent of 245 major U.S cities analyzed, using data  from 1970 to 2025. The average increase in fall temperatures since 1970 is 2.9 degrees. 

The southwestern United States, northern Rockies an the Plains have warmed up the most. 

The fastest warming cities are Reno, Nevada (7.9 degree); El Paso, Texas (6.9 degrees)' Las Vegas (6.3 degrees); Tyler, Texas (6 degrees) and Tucson, (5.9 degrees)

Demonstrating the waning influence of natural variability, Climate Central found only three cities actually cooled a little bit in the autumn between 1970 and 2025.  But those cities barely got chillier, as they were only 0.2 degrees F cooler than they used to be.   

Besides climate change, a particular location's temperatures can be affected by El Nino and La Nina, an urban heat island effect, weather station relocations and other factors. 

For our Vermont readers, Burlington is in Climate Central's data set. The city warmed up by 5.2 degrees during the fall, nearly twice the national rate of warming. 

Climate Central's data looked at meteorological fall, which is the time period between September 1 and November 30. The figures come from open source data from NOAA. 

A warm fall up here in Vermont might seem nice. And it can be. Temperatures in the 70s in late October and early November are quite nice, especially since that time of year has a blustery reputation. But warm autumn weather can cause its share of problems.

Especially early in the season, lingering heat can be dangerous. For instance, in Kansas City this time of year, normal high temperatures are still summer like - in the low 80s. But each day during the first week of this month was in the 90s, with insufferable overnight lows in the 70s  

Lately, in recent years, horrible heat and humidity have lingered well into the autumn across large swaths of the nation. Including the north. 

Here in Vermont, it was 86 degrees in Burlington on October 5 last year. The year before that, temperatures were in the upper 70s to near 80 on Halloween. In the past, it's been known to snow here when trick or treaters roam the streets of the Green Mountain State. Not any more, apparently. 

Climate Central lists other effects of hot autumn. Among them: 

Kids go back to school in the fall. Many schools, especially in the northern half of the U.S.,  have no or inadequate air conditioning, making it a challenge for both learning and student health. And the teachers are suffering, too. 

Hot, dry autumns extend the wildfire season, especially in the western United States. The worst case scenario was probably the Paradise, California fire on November 8, 2018. The fire killed 85 people, making it the deadliest wildfire that nation has seen in the past 100 years. The wildfire destroyed 18,000 structures, including 9,000 homes.  

By early November, the first early rains should have hit that part of California. But it was late, setting the stage for the calamity. 

Back here in Vermont, fall foliage season is coming very soon.  Eventually, climate change could ruin the magic, and the tourism dollars that come with it. So far, I see no evidence the brilliance of the season is waning, but it has been generally getting later. In the warmer Champlain Valley, you now have to wait until the second half of October to see peak foliage. 

The growing season is lasting longer, which is great for farmers and gardeners. But people with allergies suffer as ragweed and other such plants don't die so early. Also, ticks, mosquitoes, and other bugs last longer into the fall.  

Another Sign Of Autumn This Morning, Then Quick Blip Of Humidity, Rain

Henry the Weather Dog at the dog park in
St. Albans, Yesterday. The sun was out at
the moment this photo was taken, but
under clouds and with gusty north winds
it actually felt chilly at times. Autumn
is definitely showing itself. 

For the first time since maybe early June, I felt chilly for awhile Sunday afternoon.   

The highlight of the day for Henry the Weather Dog is a trip to the dog park here in St. Albans. I brought him there in my usual summer uniform: Shorts, a t-shirt, sneakers. 

It was 70 degrees out at best. Warm enough for that outfit. But the sun occasionally disappeared behind large, poofy clouds, so that cooled the air occasionally.  The wind also blows hard at the dog park, as it's funneled between Hard'ack Hill to the west and French Hill to the east. 

The result: I felt chilly. 

I'm not whining. It's not as if I was dying of hypothermia. Still, I took my goosebumps as a sign we are sinking deeper into autumn. 

And it was cool this morning too. It was 50 degrees in Banana-Belt Burlington this morning. It got down to 41 in Bennington and 42 in Morrisville and Lyndonville. 

The arrival of autumn comes in waves, the cool air interspersed with periods of warmer, even summery weather. So the vaguely nippy air we just had will relax into warmth. Let's get into the details.

TODAY

Temperatures have started rocketing upward and will peak well into the 70s this afternoon.  Maybe close to 80 in the warmest valleys. Henry's trip to the dog park today will not result in any shivers today. Sunshine will reign supreme. Get outside and enjoy!

TUESDAY

An extremely weak cold front should drift down from Quebec early in the morning. It'll probably bring a band of clouds. Maybe even a widely scattered light shower or sprinkle in the north. But the sun should partially make an appearance in the afternoon. It'll be a couple degrees cooler than today, but still in the 70s

WEDNESDAY

The next weather system will start to come at us from the west. South winds will pick up, and those south winds will pick up some humidity from the Gulf of Mexico and throw it at us. It'll start to feel sticky, and we'll have a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. 

A brief spell of very humid air will help blossom a period of rain, maybe briefly heavy overnight Wednesday/Thursday. There could even be a downpour or two. But the rain will rocket through here so fast Wednesday night it won't have a chance to give us all that much. 

We might see over a half inch of rain in northern Vermont, maybe a quarter to a half in central Vermont and the Champlain Valley, and less than a quarter inch far southeast. Of course, there might be adjustments to the forecast.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY

September in Vermont is famous for its spells of delightful weather. Sunshine, low humidity. With few springtime gnats or mosquitoes buzzing around and no mud underfoot. 

We might have a couple lingering showers Thursday, especially in the morning. Humidity will probably linger in the morning, too, but the air should start to feel more fresh in the afternoon. It'll be warm, as it could get up to 80 degrees or so. Not near any records by any stretch of the imagination, but a little warm for September. 

As it looks now, Friday and Saturday look delightful. Sunshine, maybe a few puffy afternoon clouds, with afternoon highs in the 70s. Both mornings will feature dense fog in the river valleys. That's also classic September weather. 

It's possible some light showers come back into the picture later on Sunday, but we might well squeak out another nice day.  

The First Windy, Rainy Autumn Storm About To Hit Vermont, Though Rainfall Might Not Be As Impressive As First Thought

Henry the Weather Dog enjoyed an unexpectedly 
sunny day yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont. A
sort of summer/autumn hybrid storm is expected
tonight, with some decent amounts of rain.

Once we get to September, the nature of storms starts to change. In the summer, it's mostly all scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

Sometimes the thunderstorms get a little too rambunctious with high winds and hail, but most of the time it's OK.  

September comes, and the nature of the storms start to change. They become more of a steady rain. Southern Vermont got a taste of that yesterday morning, as a disturbance zipped through with periods of rain. 

Many places south of Route 4 had between a quarter and a half inch of  rain. Under the cloud cover, temperatures stayed in the autumnal 60s in some parts of the south. 

Up north of Route 2, the sun made an unexpectedly strong showing, boosting temperatures into the upper 70s to score us up there a nice late summer day.

Let's get into what happens next:

TODAY

We'll get through the day mostly or completely dry, but it probably won't be all that bright and sunny. Oh,, sure we'll have a few breaks, especially this morning,   A few light reengage showers could arrive this afternoon, but don't count on any rain during the day. 

The upcoming storm isn't fully an autumn type system. It's sort of not quite summer, not quite autumn thing, so there's elements of both seasons in it.  You'll feel the humidity increase somewhat during the day today, a little like you'd expect ahead of an approaching summer cold front.

Winds will pick up today, too, the way they do ahead of an autumn storm. The winds won't be horrific by any stretch of the imagination, But south winds could gust to 30 mph in the northern Champlain Valley and higher elevations this afternoon and evening before the rain gets here. 

Today is not the day to take your boat or kayak out onto Lake Champlain.

The hybrid nature of the storm meaning areas to the south - not affecting us here in Vermont - will be rather hot and humid. With a risk of severe thunderstorms along a broad band from the southeastern Great Lakes down through the Mid-Atlantic states.

Already, early this morning, there were already severe thunderstorms moving southeastward off of Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario. As of shortly before 8 a.m. there was already a tornado warning in northwestern Pennsylvania. 

Which leads us into tonight:

TONIGHT IN VERMONT

The rain and thunderstorms will move toward Vermont this evening. The thunderstorms will become elevated, meaning a layer of stable air will hold near the ground. That will prevent severe thunderstorms here, but still allow for chances of lighting, thunder and bursts of heavier rain overnight. 

The downpours will be interspersed with a steadier light rain, again like you'd see in the autumn. 

Unfortunately, forecasts for rainfall amounts have been trending downward. We need the soaker, and this won't be as great a soaking as we'd hoped. But, anything is better than nothing. 

For now, we're expecting a half inch to an inch of rain across Vermont.  However, there's still a chance we'll get a little less than that, given the trends I've seen in the forecast. 

THURSDAY

Showers should continue into Thursday morning and maybe into the early afternoon. Thursday should also bring a brief interlude of humid weather.  Showers should end later in the day and with any luck we'll have some sun later in the day. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

A bit fall-like again. Our storm will slow down and spin around the Canadian Maritimes, as autumn storms often do. That means at least partly cloudy or mostly cloudy skies, with light showers, mostly over the mountains and Northeast Kingdom. 

It won't be all that chilly, with highs within a few degrees either side of 70 and lows in the 50s. The brief humidity from Thursday will have been solidly flushed out of here.

At this point, Sunday looks sunnier with continued seasonable high temperatures near or a little above 70.

Chilly, Dry, Windy In Vermont To Yield To Warmer, Dry, Windy, But Rain Chances Sunday Night??

Ice in the bird feeder here in St. Albans, Vermont
today. Time to take that in with everything else,
as we are in the hunker down for winter season.

Thursday was a delightful, if cool and gusty day in western and southern Vermont, while the Northeast Kingdom stayed socked in with the clouds. 

My husband and I spent much of our bright, gusty day Thursday dismantling our summer setup and starting to hunker down for winter.  

Frost sensitive plants are safely indoors, hoses are emptied of water, rolled up and stored away, some of the perennials are cut back, (I'm working on that), and deck furniture is put away.

It's a little sad to say this final goodbye to the warm season. But, the cycle goes on, and we'll be enjoying cocktails and mocktails on warm sunny summer evenings in the comfortable deck furniture, surrounded by flowers in no time, right?

The gusty winds felt like they were adding urgency to the fall tasks, which aren't nearly fully completed yet. There's so much work to do to prepare for winter, isn't there? .We'll get there. 

The weather will cooperate with this work, for now. Today will be another great day to do more of those tasks. The sunshine will be back, the wind by and large will not be. 

We're starting off cold again this morning, with most everyone west of the Green Mountains below freezing. Clouds east of the Greens kept some normally cold spots above 32 degrees. 

The sunshine will spread into the Northeast Kingdom today as well, so everybody will get to enjoy it. We'll stay sort of on the cool side, with highs in the 50s today. Another frost will come in tonight. Nothing odd for mid-October. 

Saturday still looks like the pick of the week. The sun will stay out, temperatures will warm to near 60 degrees and a south breeze will start to pick up in the afternoon. 

The wind will be back Sunday, especially in the Champlain Valley. Winds there could gust to 40 mph as temperature rebound to 70 degrees or so. 

Despite the expected warmth on Sunday, those gusty south winds are another sign of winter's approach, Storm and cold fronts become stronger in the late fall and winter, so they're able to stir up more wind. From now until spring, you'll notice strong south winds, mostly in the Champlain Valley, anytime a cold front or storm lies to our west. 

RAIN CHANCES

Sure enough, Sunday's winds are signs of a solid cold front approaching, and that will come through Sunday night and Monday. 

This will introduce a fairly brief, but welcome spell of unsettled, cloudy, and occasionally rainy weather much of next week.  

The first band of rain should be in and out of here Monday, with lingering showers going into Tuesday. Hot on the heels of the cold front will be a modest storm that should spread more rain across the Green Mountain State Wednesday and Thursday. 

This won't be by any stretch of the imagination be a drought buster, but any precipitation will be welcome. 

I don't have a good bead on how much rain we'll get but it should be a moderate amount.  The drought won't go away, but we're hoping the rain will prevent the drought from getting worse. If we get lucky, the rain might very marginally improve things. 

Remember how I said we're hunkering down for winter?  Well, there's uncertain signs that we could get chilly enough to see some snow flurries in Vermont about a week from now, maybe next Friday. If it does snow, it won't amount to anything. 

But it is a reminder to get moving on your autumn chores. 

Completely Backwards: Vermont Lilacs Blooming In October!

Lilacs bloom on the tree outside my house in 
St. Albans, Vermont this week. Stress from a
wet spring, a blight and drought have caused
this out of season display. 

You might have seen the following in your travels lately and said, what the hell?!?!?

Lilacs are blooming in Vermont. In October. 

Lilacs are of course a highly welcomed sight in May. What's not to love about them? When they bloom, they signal that you're in the heart of spring.

 They smell absolutely divine. And they're gorgeous. And traditional. I don't think I've ever seen an old farm house in Vermont without a lilac bush that's almost as old as the house. 

These lilac bushes usually cede beauty to the sugar maples in the autumn. While our hillsides glow orange and red and yellow, lilac bushes normally just drop their green leaves late in the autumn, and you're done until spring. Ho-hum.

This year, our lilac bushes were stressed by topsy turvy weather much more so than usual. Yes, we can blame climate change for another round of weather extremes in 2025.  

This year, we had an unusually wet, sopping spring. That encouraged a leaf blight to take hold in lilac leaves. That's a huge part of the reason why you saw so many lilac bushes with curled up, browning leaves that fell off prematurely. The blight - as you can imagine - stressed the lilac bushes. 

Then, the rain shut off in July, and we sank into our big flash drought. That stressed the lilac trees even more. 

"Stressful conditions put the plant in a dormant-like state and when the cooler temperatures and shorter days of fall arrive, some of the flower buds are triggered to bloom," Iowa State University Extension explains. 

We also finally got some rain in late September, which also might have helped trigger the odd new blooms.  

The good news is the blight, the drought and the weird October blooming won't kill or really harm your lilac bushes. These are really, really tough plants. Ever try to kill a lilac? It's almost impossible. Besides, why would anyone want to kill a lilac?

Next May, your suffering lilac will bloom beautifully, and on schedule. It might have fewer blooms than usual, because the tree put on some of its blooming effort this month. 

The strange doings with lilacs are a sign that weather extremes brought on by climate change are having an effect on everything.  In the springs of 2021 and 2023, for the first time in my life, I noticed freeze damage to lilac blooms.

In both those years, oddly warm early spring weather got trees leafing out and blooming way too early. Then snow and frost and deep freezes hit, turning some of those gorgeous lavender lilac blooms a disappointing brown. Or they didn't bloom at all in some cases.

Hopefully, normal amounts of precipitation will return soon. The drought here in Vermont and the rest of northern New England is still in full force. The latest weekly U.S. Drought reports comes out later this morning. I'll put up a post about that update here in this blog thingy later today. 

Maybe we'll get lucky and the weather during the spring and summer of 2026 will be pretty moderate to give all our garden plants a break. 

But give the climate change that everyone is experiencing, I'm sure something bizarro will happen next growing season, too.  

Vermont Frost/Freeze Prospects Increasing For Friday, Saturday Nights

There's a good chance at least some of us will see
a frost or freeze in Vermont early Saturday morning
and again early Sunday morning. Not everyone
will get that cold. So far, the Champlain
Valley looks safe, but we'll update as 
information becomes available. 

On top of the droughts, we now have to worry about frosts and freezes.

Though I suppose on the bright side, a risk of a frost is very normal for this time of year in Vermont. 

For once, it's not another weird weather thing being plopped down our plate. 

I'll skip the drought news in this particular post. I want to wait until the latest U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later this morning, so watch this space for a big drought update before noon today.

FROST CHANCES

So, OK, let's get into the frost prospects. 

I'll start with a spoiler: Not everyone will see their growing seasons end this weekend. But the frost will be more widespread than anything we've seen yet this early autumn season 

Judging by how things will feel out there today, you wouldn't think a frost risk. It'll feel like the Good Old Summertime with highs in many warmer valleys topping 80 degrees. During droughts, the lack of moisture can make daytime highs warmer than they would be had it been wetter. 

Which means there's a chance that today's high temperatures could over-perform. I wouldn't be shocked if some warmer valley reach the mid-80s.  That would be just a couple degrees short of record highs for this time of year. 

Not only do droughts make hot days hotter, they can make cold nights colder. Moisture coming up from the ground can blunt falling temperatures through higher humidity and fog, especially this time of year. A lack of moisture can allow temperatures to fall further than they otherwise might on calm, clear nights. 

That might be the case this weekend. 

The trigger for the upcoming chilly nights is a cold front due to come through tonight.  As we've kept saying, the most we can expect out of the front is some scattered sprinkles and patches of drizzle overnight and early Friday. 

Tomorrow itself will really feel like autumn has arrived. Highs will stay in the 60s as skies clear during the day.  A brisk north breeze will add to the autumnal feel of a classic crisp fall day. Saturday will be like that, too.

The problem is the nights. With the low humidity, temperatures will crash Friday night. A light breeze might keep temperatures pretty uniform, but those temperatures will be cold. Scattered frost is possible almost anywhere in Vermont away from the Champlain Valley, as it looks now. 

Even away from Lake Champlain, not everyone will see a frost. If you're in a place that gets frosts while other nearby places don't, you'll probably get a frost Saturday morning. And Sunday morning. If you usually don't get an autumn frost when everybody else does, chances are you'll be safe. 

The coldest hollows will see a hard freeze. Saranac Lake, New York is forecasting lows as chilly as 26 degrees.

Frost and freeze advisories haven't been issued yet. The National Weather Service will do that when we get closer to the event.  But get ready to protect your plants. 

After a crisp, beautiful cool, autumnal Saturday, we'll have a similar frost/freeze situation overnight Saturday and early Sunday. 

After that, it'll warm right back up again. Highs Sunday through maybe next Wednesday should get into the 70s again in many places. 

I'll have an update on this frost situation tomorrow morning. 

Stick A Fork In It; Vermont Summer Is Over (I Think)

The summer of 2025 has been hot, but cooler,
more autumnal weather has arrived earlier than
in recent years. 

I'm going to declare it: Summer in Vermont is over. 

Sure, we're still going to have summer-like days. We'll still probably have a few afternoons that get into the 80s. Maybe we'll have a couple humid days or stuffy night or two, but I think summer is done.  

Fingers crossed, we might be done with the big heat waves, and the sometimes week long series of nights in which it's almost impossible to sleep without air conditioning. 

This is all subjective, of course. Just because I decide summer is over doesn't mean it is. 

The widely accepted unofficial end of summer is this weekend - Labor Day. Astronomically, summer doesn't end here until 2:19 p.m. eastern time September 22.

But we all have our own sense of when summer is over. The recent cool days, a rather chilly forecast, and an long term expected weather pattern that doesn't scream heat waves has me sticking a fork in summer. 

It's not just me. Down in the nation's capital, the folks at the Washington Post Capital Weather Gang have also declared that summer is over in DC. 

"By our meteorological definition, summer ends when there's no longer a realistic chance of three straight days of 90 degrees or higher. This year, we think we've reached that point," the Weather Gang announced on Wednesday. . 

I don't have a distinct measure for Vermont. Maybe it's when I think another 90 degree day won't hit until next summer.  

That's OK, we've had enough of 'em this year. With 17 such days as measured in Burlington, we're in the top ten list of most 90 degree days in a single year.  Plus, there's always the chance I'm wrong.  A few (but not all!) computer models bring us back to 90 degrees around September 10. You never know.

I usually figure a season has begun or ended through the lens of hindsight. The second half of this August in Vermont has been chilly, at least compared to recent Augusts.  Ever since a strong, autumn-like cold front sliced through the Green Mountain State on August 17, the consistent warmth of this summer disappeared. 

Eight of the last 11 days have been below normal. At least below the "new normal" that has arrived. This "new normal" is toastier than the 20th century average, thanks to climate change. The kind of late August we're having this year would have been typical, even a tad on the warm side if the same series of days had happened, say, in 1960 or 1970 or even 1980.

LONGER CLIMATE CHANGED SUMMERS

Still, this August is also breaking the trend of longer summers. In most recent years, summer weather - and my unofficial definition of the season - has usually lasted into September. 

There's data to back this up. Summers almost everywhere are longer than they were three decades ago, including here in Vermont. 

Per the Washington Post:

"Climatologist Brian Brettschneider examined the hottest 90 days of the year from 1965 to 1994 and compared their frequency over 1995 to 2024. He found that the temperature that used to kick off the hottest three months of the year expanded beyond the calendar definition of summer."

Brettschneider looked at a whole bunch of cities, including Burlington, Vermont.  From 1965 to 1994, the hottest 90 days of summer - when the average temperature was 64 degrees or warmer - ran from June 6 to September 3 in Burlington.

From 1994 to 2004, the average length of summer - the time it was 64 degrees or warmer - increased by 13 days and ran from June 1 to September 11.

Climate change is lengthening our summers and making them hotter. Despite the cool end of this August, the summer of 2025 in Burlington is very likely to be among the top ten hottest on record. 

There are actually 15 summers in Burlington's top ten warmest summer list due to ties. Not including this summer, eight of those top 15 hottest summers have occurred since 2005, and four of them have happened since 2020. So there's a real warming trend here. 

Even though this summer is likely among the hottest on record in Vermont, it is turning into an exception to Brettschneider's longer summer trend. 

You're always going to have exceptions to the rules. Even if those are new rules. Lately, a persistent weather pattern is bringing cool air from Canada. 

Temperatures will continue below normal today through Sunday, then they should rise to near or slightly above normal most of next week. After that, trends indicate another big cool spell starting about a week from today. 

Despite that, who knows?   Summer could unexpectedly come roaring back. Under our climate changed weather patterns, weird surprises happen. 

For instance, in 2017, summer seemed definitely over in late August and early September with consistently cool weather, with even some frost in the cold hollows on September 2. Then, from September 24 to 27, Burlington had an unprecedented four days in a row with temperatures reaching 90 degrees, by far the latest in the season 90 degree temperatures on record. 

Given the track record of recent warm autumn, we might do something weird like that this year.   

Wednesday Morning Vermont Update: Drops Of Rain, But Little Drought Relief

A few sprinkles helped enhance the colors in the sky
over St. Albans, Vermont Tuesday evening. The 
showers only produced a trace of rain here. 

Tantalizing drops of rain have fallen here and there in Vermont over the past 24 hours, slightly wetting the ground in a few spots, but still doing almost nothing to relieve drought conditions.  

A very brief downpour blew through the Burlington area last evening, depositing 0.16 inches of rain. But that left Burlington easily among the wettest spot in Vermont Tuesday, which really isn't saying much. 

A little more rain is in the forecast which will keep the worsening drought slightly at bay, but there's still not much of a prospect of any super soaking rains soon.

A semi-decent area of showers was over parts of Addison and northwest Rutland counties as of 8 a.m. today. A few spot showers will continue today, especially in the southern half of Vermont, where a few lucky towns could get a little over a tenth of an inch of rain, while others say dry. Hit and miss again. 

Today should  be about as autumnal as yesterday, with highs within a few degrees either side of 70.

SLIGHTLY WET COLD FRONT

The cold front we've been talking about for the end of the week looks like it will graciously dampen Vermont a little, which is nice.  But once again, it will be a bit of a swing and a miss for heavier rains.

The last cold front this past Sunday and Monday was supposed to slow down and create extra rain over Vermont. Instead, most of that extra rain fell in northern New York and extreme northwest Vermont.

It looks like a somewhat similar rainfall pattern will strike again, with some key differences.  

The latest rain forecast from the National Weather 
Service. Only a quarter inch of rain is expected through
early Saturday in most places. 

It'll start off cool again tomorrow with dawn temperatures in the 40s for many of us. Some southwest breezes in the afternoon will bring temperatures into the mid-70s, which is just a smidge below normal,

Increasing clouds will promise rain but there's a catch. The approaching cold front will start out with great dynamics, dropping decent rains Thursday night in northern New York despite a "meh" moisture supply. 

Over in the St. Lawrence Valley, they could see a good 0.5 to 0,75 inches of rain Thursday night and Friday. 

As the front gets into Vermont Friday, it will start to weaken.  It will have enough oomph left to drop some rain, especially north, and that might even be a rumble or two of thunder. 

Expected rainfall amounts are subject to change, and the forecast could change a lot by the time we get to the event. 

But at this point it looks like rainfall with the actually front will only amount to a quarter inch, give or take. It'll be a little more to the northwest, where the northern Champlain Valley could see more than a third an inch with the front by Friday afternoon. The south and east loses again, with maybe a 0.1 to 0.2 inches.

After the cold front goes through, a chilly pool of air aloft - an upper level low - will probably basically sit and spin somewhere near the Vermont/Quebec border Friday night through Saturday night. 

That will keep light showers going over much of Vermont. They should be just inconsequential sprinkles in southern valleys, if that. More frequent light showers should hit central Vermont and the valleys of northern Vermont Friday night and Saturday, but they won't amount to all that much. 

The western slopes and ridgelines of the central and northern Green Mountains could get a decent dampening with this regime through Saturday. Those high elevation places could see a quarter inch of rain. 

Expect continued pre-fall weather Friday and Saturday as highs stay in the 60s, except lower 70s in warmer, sunnier southern valleys. 

BEYOND SATURDAY.

The dry times return after Saturday. There might be a few lingering sprinkles in the north and mountains Sunday. But that will be it for several days, as it looks now. Dry high pressure looks like it will stall nearby later Sunday through at least next Thursday morning. 

That'll bring low humidity, sunshine and somewhat of a warming trend, all bad news because that week of weather would dry out whatever meager rains we see through Saturday.  

After Being Mostly Cheated On Monday Rain, Vermont Faces Autumnal Week In One Of Its Driest Augusts On Record

Last evening had a bit of an autumnal look and feel
to it here in St. Albans, Vermont, and this week
will definitely be pre-autumn in Vermont. But
rain faltered Monday, and not much is in the 
forecast. This will likely be one of the driest
Augusts on record in the Green Mountain State., 

As always with summer rains, there were winners and losers with showers on Monday.

Things usually even out, but with our Vermont drought deepening, the stakes are much higher now. Yesterday's misses make the situation for many much more dire for many of us. 

It turns out a small area around where I live in northwest Vermont was the big winner. 

The more than three quarters of an inch of rain that fell around St. Albans and Georgia early Monday was more than anyone else in the Green Mountain State received by a pretty large margin. 

A patch of showers that passed through early this morning slightly added to the wet bonus in the Champlain Valley. 

My place in St. Albans received another 0.1 inches of rain early this morning, for a three day total of 0.95.   That's better than almost all the rest of Vermont. 

So I'm damn lucky. And gloating,

Elsewhere,  most places received a third of an inch of rain or less. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon provided a bit of additional help in a handful of places, but most of us stayed dry.   

August now stands an excellent chance of becoming one of Vermont's top 10 driest Augusts. In some towns, it might well be the driest August on record. 

So far this month, Montpelier has only had 0.31 inches of rain. They should have receive about 3..2 inches by now.. St. Johnsbury has logged only a half inch of rain so far in August. By now 3.3 inches should  have accumulated this month.  

If no more rain falls in Burlington this month, it'll be the second driest August on record with just 0.93 inches. (The driest August was in 1957 with just 0.72 inches.) The tenth driest August in Burlington was 1.49 inches in 1894, so we should make the list.  

It would take a big surprise this coming weekend for this August to become one of the ten driest. 

RAIN PROSPECTS

We do have a remote, outside chance of a decent rain this weekend, but I'm to holding my breath. Still, it seems increasingly likely that at least some parts of Vermont will get a little bit of rain Thursday night and Friday. And maybe continuing a bit on Saturday. really doubting it. 

We're in what I would guess pre-autumn now, and weather conditions will be classic September. 

Last evening, I really did feel start to feel the cool autumnal aspect of autumn, even if in reality it really wasn't all that cool. Just seasonable, but it's been mostly a hot summer until now. 

For the rest of the week, we'll have a pretty typical regime for autumn or even winter. A northwest flow with embedded weak disturbances will continue today and tomorrow. 

That means cool air and party cloudy skies with a risk of a few light showers, mostly in the mountains. It'll be sunniest in the southeast with virtually no chance of showers down there. Which is bad, because that part of the state really missed out on the rain Sunday and Monday. 

Today's showers won't amount to much, so in general, we'll either start drying out, or continue drying out. The drought lives on.  

On Thursday night a stronger cold front will approach. It also looks like an upper level storm will want to get going overhead or nearby, with a small corresponding small storm down where we live.

The front itself will have some oomph to it. So we might briefly get some moderate intensity showers and maybe a little rumble of thunder with it toward Friday. 

The upper level low will have a pocket of pretty chilly air with it, so highs Friday and Saturday probably won't get out of the 60s. Or even 50s in some colder, higher northern spots. Burlington on Friday will probably have its first sub-70 high temperature since June 13. 

Showers, mostly along the west slopes of the northern Green Mountains should continue into Saturday. That's a very typical winter pattern. At least it's going to be rain, not snow, right?  

Some - but not all - forecasts have the chilly upper level low lingering through the Labor Day weekend, If that chill remains, it won't be much of a farewell to summer. Too cold for the beach, and possibly too showery to enjoy hiking to the mountain summits. 

The late week storm and cold front are coming in from the north, so it won't be able to scoop up a lot of humid air from the south. So even though the front and storm might have a lot of energy, it probably won't be able to generate a huge amount of rain. 

But, as I keep saying, we'll take anything. We'll have a better idea of how much rain as we draw closer to the event. 

Longer range forecasts have high pressure stalling over us starting around Monday and continuing much of the following week. That will keep us dry with a bit of a warming trend. 

After this thing we're getting at the start of Labor Day weekend, the next chance of decent rains wouldn't come along until around September 5 or 6, as it looks now.  

Northern New England/Canada Fire Danger Today; Still Hanging On Potential Rain Forecast Sunday/Monday

A hollyhock blossom basks in the sun and awaits 
forecasted rain Saturday morning in St. Albans, Vermont,

It hasn't rained here in northern Vermont since Sunday or since Tuesday down south. Both rainfalls were pathetically light. 

Since then, we've had lots of sun, and rock bottom humidity. Very nice, but not great for our developing drought. 

Today, the wind is picking up. There's definitely a risk of brush fires today. 

The drought in New England is most intense in Maine closest to the coast.

 The National Weather Service office in Caribou, Maine, is warning residents there of "potential for uncontrolled fire spread across the Downeast, Bangor Region and Central Highlands today."

Southeast Canada is on guard for fires, too. Unlike here in New England, places like New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland have already experienced large, damaging brush and forest fires. 

In New Brunswick, fire activity has decreased in recent days, which is awesome news, but they are on guard up there. In Nova Scotia, winds from offshore Hurricane Erin helped fan a large wildfire near West Dalhousie that has consumed about 32 square kilometers, or about 20 square miles. 

Here in Vermont, the forest fire danger remains high today, as the humidity remains arid, the sun continues to blaze and winds pick up. 

Luckily, it still looks like the fire danger will be tamped down starting tomorrow, though that might well be temporary. The drought will continue, but at least some rains will interrupt its worsening trend.   

RAINY BREAK 

This morning's National Weather Service rainfall
prediction map shows more than a half inch of
rain through Monday in most of Vermont. Rainfall
forecasts like this are subject to change. 

The increasing wind today is the first signs of the welcome rains.  It's also another sign summer is waning.  Summertime cold fronts don't generate much wind, except within strong or severe thunderstorms.  

Once you get into autumn, the parent storms with cold fronts start to get stronger, so the wind increases. 

That wind will peak tonight, with some places gusting as high as 35 mph.  That's obviously not especially dangerous, but you might want to unfurl those umbrellas over your deck tables before you go to bed tonight. 

The wind will not have had a chance to get too strong today, gusting to maybe 25 mph. Those breezes combined with low humidity will actually feel good even though temperatures get well into the 80s. 

Sunday will feel more humid, and there will be a rising chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Not everyone will get all that wet Sunday. Some places, especially south and east, might have to wait until Sunday night to start seeing some decent rains as the cold front starts moving into the region. 

Although a few of Sunday's storms might get a little rambunctious, meteorologists don't expect much in the way of severe weather. 

It looks like an interesting little storm will get going near the North Carolina coast and head quickly northeastward off of New England toward southeast Canada Monday. This might be sort of a semi-tropical system.  Up in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, this little storm looks like it could drop a lot of badly needed rain, which is great news for them.

Even though this storm won't directly affect Vermont, I'm mentioning it because it could give us a bit of an assist. 

National Weather Service meteorologists think this storm might slow down the cold front over Vermont Monday and boost it with a little extra moisture. That would prolong the rain we're getting and add to the overall totals. 

You can see that in the rain forecast from late Saturday through Monday. Northern New York looks like it will be a little too far west to benefit from that front slowing down on Monday. Some places out there might not even see a quarter inch of rain out of this,   

Vermont would get a little more, with many places seeing a half inch to an inch of rain. At least as something doesn't go wrong with the forecast and we get cheated out of rain again. I'm not going to rejoice until I see water in my rain gauge. 

The rainfall totals is will be highly variable again, because of the expected scattered thunderstorms. Some Vermont towns might miss out and receive less than a half inch of rain, while other places could get bonus storms that would bring rainfall totals to as much as 1.5 inches. 

RAIN SHUTS OFF

If the current schedule holds, most of the rain Monday would come early in the day with perhaps a bit of clearing later. 

Unfortunately, the predicted rain Sunday and Monday seems to be a one-off and not a change in the weather pattern toward something soggier.

It'll be a cool week with air coming down from Canada.  The ginger ale is called Canada Dry for a reason. There's not much atmospheric moisture up there. Weak disturbances in the air flow might touch off some light showers. 

That could be especially true on Thursday, as a lot of the computer models swing a reinforcing cold front through here. Basically just count on sprinklers.  Most of us will seen a tenth of an inch of rain or less next week after Monday. 

The cooler than average air will probably last until next weekend. At that point, it could start to warm up a bit, but persistent high pressure nearby would keep wet weather fronts away for awhile.   

We're not going to easily shake out of our dry weather pattern heading into autumn. It might be time to start hoping for the remnants of old tropical storms to come through in September and early October, followed by a series of nor'easter later in the autumn and into the winter. 

Yes, you saw it here first. I'm actually hoping for bad weather.  

Autumn In July For Vermont, For A Couple Days, Anyway

Part of my perennial garden in St. Albans, Vermont
enjoys a little evening sun after a bit of rain 
earlier in the day, The gardens will now cool off
a bit in a mid-summer break from the heat and humidity,

Autumn is here! Well, kinda, sorta, for a day or two.

Yesterday's storm system is long gone, having caused few problems locally. A band of strong storms did pass through southern Vermont and points south.  The only trouble from those I've seen so far in Vermont is in Saxtons River, where a tree fell on a house on Sunday. 

There were numerous reports of tree and wire damage, and some structural damage in the New York Capitol District, and in what you might want to call Rhodachusecut, basically southern New England.

A series of reinforcing cold fronts came through the last night, and the cool weather is here. 

This means for the next two or three days we in the Green Mountain State face something we basically haven't seen all summer: No heat, no humidity, no severe storm threat, no flash flooding, heck, no rain! It even looks like we'll have a reprieve from that wildfire smoke for a few days. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY/TONIGHT

A classic September day is on tap. Which is interesting, since right around July 21 is on average the hottest part of the summer. 

A few lingering showers early this morning should depart.  I said no rain above, but you do need an exception in everything. There could also be a sprinkle or two over the mountains today. 

In the broader valleys and in southeast Vermont, we'll call today partly sunny. Some clouds will be around, but I imagine the sun will be out half the time, or almost that.  I think the mountains and the Northeast, Kingdom will stay on the cloudy side, but even those places will have breaks of sun. 

Highs today should only get into the low 70s in the Champlain Valley and 60s across the rest of northern and central Vermont. The warmest parts of southern Vermont could reach the mid-70s. All this is pretty average for mid-September. 

It'll be downright chilly for many of us tonight, but look at it as a very comfortable sleeping night. Most of Vermont will be in the 40s by dawn Tuesday. We might even seen a 38 or 39 in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom. There might be some low 50s near Lake Champlain.  

Although all this is all pretty nippy compared to the weather we've had in most recent summers, historically, this cool spell is a yawner. In the 20th century and before, this kind of comfortable spell in a Vermont summer was routine, and it very often use to get much colder than this in July, 

It has been as cold as 39 degrees in Burlington in July and 29 degrees in West Burke (back in 1962),  Frost would hit the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom every once in awhile.  Climate change has now turned a routine July cool spell into something that now feels kind of exceptional, 

REST OF WEEK

Tuesday stays bright, sunny and cool for the season with highs in the 70s.  Tuesday night looks on the cool side, too, but not as chilly as tonight. The return to summer begins Wednesday, as we should be back in the 80s. 

By Thursday, it's back to the the heat and humidity, as it could reach 90 again. After that, the "heat dome" we keep talking about will center itself right in the middle of the U.S.  The heat will get nasty in most of the nation except the West Coast and maybe here in New England, 

Here in Vermont, it's going to be iffy. It seems like the door will be open for a series of weak cold fronts from the northwest starting the end of this week and going into August. But squirts of hot, humid air could also make it in between the fronts. And unlike the current cool spell, the air after each upcoming cold front won't be all that cold.

So, the consensus is for temperatures near or slightly above normal heading into early August, with near to perhaps slightly above normal precipitation. 

But that's just the broad brush. The devil is in the details, which we simply don't have. I almost guarantee some sort of surprise or two in that general weather pattern, but there's no telling what that might be. So we'll stay on our toes.

November Was Yet Another Warm Vermont Month In An Incredibly Warm Year So Far

The first day of November opened with a sky that
sort of suggested summer and some leaves still on
trees during this near record warm autumn

 As always, we flip the calendar to a new month, so we have the climate stats for the past month, which took us through November.  

It was another warm month. Burlington ended up with a mean temperature of 42.0 degrees. That barely put us in the top 10 list of warmest Novembers. We tied for 10th place on the list with 1975 and 1896.

Incredibly, that means eight months this year were among the top ten warmest on record. All four seasons in 2024 also scored in the top five warmest. 

You'd think that 2024 is a shoo-in for warmest year on record, which will beat the mark set just last year. However, it appears we're gearing up for a remarkably cold December, which might spoil that record. More on that in a bit.

Temperatures

Depending on where you were in Vermont, the month came out anywhere between about 2.5 and 4.5 degrees warmer than average. 

 No surprise, the warmth of November was statewide and consistent. The warmth was punctuated by two heat bursts in the first week of the month. Temperatures climbed as high as 80 degrees in Woodstock. That's only the second time I'm aware of that it reached 80 somewhere in Vermont during November. The other occasion was during a hot spell in 1950 that brought the temperature up to 81 degrees in Bellows Falls. 

It can get below zero across the state in November, but the coldest readings of the month were mostly in the teens above zero, with some places  not dipping below the 20s. 

Burlington's low for the month was a very mild 24 degrees. (That's a full nine degrees warmer than the coldest reading ever in October, never mind November.  Also in Burlington, every day got at least a little above freezing, a rarity for November. 

Only nine days during November in Burlington were regarded as cooler than normal. And remember, this is the "new normal" based on the average of the past 30 years, when climate change had already skewed weather records.  

Precipitation

The only snow of note in November came in the final
days of the month. Most of the time, it was too 
warm for snow. 

With all the talk of drought establishing itself in Vermont, November could have been worse. It was drier than normal statewide, but storms during the final ten days of the month helped a little. 

Soil conditions are still too dry, and we could use a wet winter and spring, but so far, we're mostly hanging in there. 

Most places in Vermont usually get between about 2.5 and three inches of rain and melted snow during a typical November. This year, we were short by about an inch. 

Burlington clocked in with 1.64 inches of November rain and snow. By my count, that was the 25th driest November out of the past 131 years of reliable records in Burlington.  

Southern Vermont had the worst trouble with a lack of rain early in the month. Drought officially took hold there, and rare for the season brush and forest fires vexed that section of the state well into mid-month. 

Recent rains and snows have finally erased that threat. 

Snowfall was light, with most places not seeing any real snow until Thanksgiving. The Champlain Valley missed out on that storm. Burlington only had 0.1 inches of snow in November, tying with 2004 as the second least snowiest November. (Least snowy, totally a trace is a five way tie).

The Thanksgiving storm left a few high elevations in southern and central Vermont with more snow than  normal for November, an exception to the low-snow rule for the month. 

Autumn, 2024

Meteorological autumn, defined as the period between September 1 and November 30, was the second warmest on record in Burlington. The average temperature for the three months was 53.6 degrees. Only the autumn of 2017 was warmer.   

After a remarkably warm year so far, the first half of
December in our neck of the woods is forecast
to be much colder than we're used to. 

We had such a warm autumn mostly because of the consistency of the warmth rather than many long record hot spells. September was Burlington fourth warmest; October was ninth warmest, and as mentioned November was ties for 10th warmest.

Seven of the ten warmest autumns in Burlington have occurred since 2011.

Incredibly, as I alluded to, each season in Burlington in 2024 was among the warmest seen since they started keeping track of these things back in the 1880s. 

Winter 2023-24 was the warmest, spring, 2024 was tied for second warmest, summer was third warmest, and autumn came in second. 

Makes you wonder if global warming is altering the kind of climate we're used to, huh?  Although, we might just have coming up what has become a rare interruption in our warming Green Mountain State surroundings. 

Long Warmth Ending

Arguably, I can't remember any extended periods of cold than normal weather in Vermont since late autumn and early winter of 2019. (We have had brief excursions into record or near record cold since them, but those have only lasted a few days at most).

Forecasters and long range models are consistent in suggesting we could be about to have a December unlike anything we've seen in at least a quarter century. No guarantees on that, but it's possible.

Most Decembers have been normal to warm over the past few decades, but a persistent weather pattern seems to be setting up that would keep blasts of Arctic air coming at us. We almost guarantee the first half of December will be noticeably colder than normal, with some days being really cold. 

The signals are mixed on what would happen in the second half of December. But if it stays cold, 2023 might well end up keeping its position as Burlington's hottest year. 

The chilly December race is on!