For Second Time In A Row, Vermont Storm Had Tricks Up Its Sleeves

Another two and a half inches or so of snow
greeted me and our vehicles this morning in
St. Albans, Vermont. The forecast for this
storm has turned out accurate for places
near the Canadian border, but for other 
places in Vermont, well........

This is the time of year when meteorologists might be tempted to give up on the science and flip a coin. 

Early spring is when you tend to get the most surprises and we have some today. As many early Sunday morning risers have already noticed. 

SUNDAY MORNING SURPRISES

Most of Vermont had little or no snow as of 8 a.m. Had forecasters been right the snow would have started two hours earlier. Snow, and some rain ended up arriving after 8 a.m.   

Despite continued forecast to the contrary, I'm doubting many places along and south of Route 2 will see as much snow as had been forecast. But who knows? We seem to be in the season of surprises. 

Meanwhile, a heavier a slug of precipitation was heading into southern Vermont. The further south you go, the warmer it is. Bennington was at 39 degrees as of 8 a.m., so I imagine they'll see mostly rain. It'll be interesting to see at what elevation you have to reach in the southern Green Mountains before it's mostly snow. 

Another big surprise was the dump of snow early this morning near the Canadian border. That snow did arrive in the hours before dawn, as forecast. From what I can tell, areas within 30 miles of the border have gotten at a few inches of snow. There was 2.6 inches of new snow at my place in St Albans as of 9 a.m.  

As of 8 a.m., the snow in St. Albans had turned to a light sleet, with perhaps a few drops of freezing rain mixed in. That's a clue to what we'll deal with this afternoon and evening. A special weather statement from the National Weather Service in South Burlington noted that most of the Champlain Valley was switching over to light freezing rain or drizzle.

When the precipitation gets a little heavier, it goes toward snow. When it gets lighter, freezing drizzle and drizzle. I noticed at around 9 a.m. drizzle changed back to a burst of snow as a zone of heavier precipitation seen on radar moved in. 

As of 9 a.m., temperatures ranged from near freezing to a degree or two above in the Champlain Valley. However, central Vermont is at risk for some freezing drizzle for a few more hours. 

So that annoying icy stuff should just turn into an annoying misty cold spray in your face this afternoon.  

But it will probably go back to freezing drizzle tonight, which will make you have a workout early tomorrow morning scraping a thin but firm coat of ice off at least some of our windshields. It will also make untreated surfaces like driveways and sidewalks icy traps that could have you tumbling to the ground. 

FORECAST BUSTS

I think this storm forecast is turning out to be more of a bust than Friday's. In Friday's storm, forecasts prior to the snow were obviously wrong in the Champlain Valley. But the forecasts for northern Vermont east of the Greens and southern Vermont were actually quite accurate. 

I'm not busting the chops of the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington. They do an awesome job. But, these kinds of things keep happening. I continue to wonder - albeit without evidence so far - that steep National Weather Service cutbacks under the Trump administration, is compromising the data that goes into computerized forecasting. 

Bad data equals bad outcomes.

I'm not the only one who is wondering about this. As we reported recently, Michigan's governor and two U.S. Senators sent out inquiries regarding forecasts ahead of deadly tornadoes in southern Michigan earlier this month. 

 I also have to acknowledge that early spring storms have always been notoriously hard to forecast, so that is definitely one important factor in all of this.  Besides, forecasting for this storm wasn't entirely a bust. We knew yesterday the Northeast Kingdom would probably get the most snow, and that seems to be the case. 

And interestingly, in the northern Champlain Valley up by St. Albans and Highgate, it appears the forecast will come out spot on. 

We also thought southern Vermont valleys would get at least some rain and little snow and that also seems to be happening, 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's a scary prospect to forecast given what I've said above, but those meteorologists working on our behalf need to attempt it. After tonight's patchy freezing drizzle, Monday looks like a somewhat unpleasant day, but something we should be used to in March.

That means mostly cloudy skies, snow showers and a chilling north wind. Highs will only make it into the low 30s at best for most of us. Maybe upper 20s in northern hills, and perhaps upper 30s in southern valleys.

Monday night looks cold, of course, with lows in the teens to low 20s. Tuesday looks like the pick of the week with sunny skies and temperatures near 40. That's near to just a smidge cooler than average for this time of year.

Our next storm looks like it will come along Thursday. I don't dare take a stab of what will happen with Thursday's system just yet. But it will probably be a capricious one, just like Friday's storm and today's weather   

 

How Shady Social Media Influencers Uses Scary, False Weather Forecasts For Profit

A computer forecast issued on January 23 indicated New
England would be blasted by a historic nor'easter
tonight and tomorrow, February 2/3. Obviously this
will not happen and we will have calm weather instead.
But social media weather "influencers" are using
these scary but false long range forecasts to
scare and mislead the public for fun and profit. 

 That stupid groundhog in Pennsylvania, Punxsutawney Phil, supposedly saw his shadow this morning, and that allegedly means six more weeks of winter. 

The whole thing is silly of course. First of all, up here in Vermont, we're going to have six more weeks of winter no matter what any rodent has to say. And we know a groundhog can't forecast the weather. 

Punxsutawney Phil is a fun little tradition, but that's about it. 

Speaking of long range forecasts, the computer models that forecast two weeks or more in advance have become a problem. 

There's nothing really wrong with the computer models. It's actually how social media weather "influencers" use them to frighten the public to enhance clicks and revenue. 

On social media, I've seen so many dark warnings of storms or cold waves of the century  this year already that if I had a penny for each one, I'd be lounging in my expensive tropical island retreat by now. 

Sadly, if you want to make money online, you scare people. Let's lay the whole scam out:

THE COMPUTER MODELS 

This morning's run of the same model has no storm at 
all in New England. Perhaps the January 23 forecast
was sort of picking up on that storm you see in this 
forecast east of Labrador. On line weather
"influencers" use scary, inaccurate long range
forecasters to scare people for clicks and revenue

If you look at these models, like the American or European that meteorologists refer to, you'll see a string of forecast maps that show storms and fronts and whatnot crisscrossing the U.S., or whatever map location you're looking at. These computer forecasts typically forecast for up to two weeks out. 

The forecast maps in these models for the next couple of days are pretty good, but then they get less and less accurate as you get further and further into the future.

The maps for a week or more into the future should be taken with a big grain of salt.  The specifics are always wrong. The long range forecasts can give you a general idea of the trend in the weather,  but the can't handle things like the placement and strength of storms.  

For example, I've been saying lately in this here blog thingy that we'll have generally cold weather until mid-February, then some sort of change might be in the works. I'm being purposefully vague. 

The computer models have been consistently saying the first half of February will be generally chilly. But future nor'easters and cold fronts a week or more beyond the date the forecast is issued appear and disappearlike puffs of snow in a chilly February breeze. 

A classic example:  On January 23, I could have frightened the pants off of you with an American model forecast that showed what practically looked like the worst, biggest nor'easter EVER in New England that would hit tonight and tomorrow (February 2-3)

The next run of the American model a few hours later on January 23 didn't have much of anything in New England. Since then, the computer models have not been forecasting anything particularly scary around here. 

Sure enough, instead of the Storm of the Century tonight, we're going to have basic normal, boring early February weather.  It'll get down to near 0 degrees tonight with light winds. Tomorrow will be generally sunny and seasonable (highs in the 20s) with light winds. 

So much for most destructive nor'easter in memory. 

 It looks like the computer models on January 23 did manage to sniff out a storm two weeks in advance. But at such a long range, it was way off on location, strength and orientation of the system.  It was probably the nor'easter that hit North Carolina over the weekend. Which is now the nor'easter that tonight will be somewhere east of Labrador, not over New England. 

The long range models sometimes spit out scenarios a week or two down the road that are virtually meteorologically impossible. It's a case of garbage in, garbage out.  They'll predict a storm in the Bahamas that ends up in New York a week later. Or a hurricane that impossibly strengthens over Pennsylvania. The computer models don't have a lot of information to work with in their predictions for something like 10 days from now. So you get off the charts forecasts.

THE HARM

Those boffo, bizarre long range forecasts would just be a source of weird harmless entertainment for strange weather geeks like me. Except now, some of us are putting these horrifying forecasts online for the public to be, well  horrified by. 

Here's an example. North Carolina, and many other areas of the South have had a rough winter so far. North Carolina had a bunch of freezing rain on January 25-26, stopping road travel in parts of the state and cutting power to many. Then, this past weekend, a nor'easter dumped up to 17 inches of snow in eastern parts of the state. That's an area where it's kind of shocking to receive two inches. 

North Carolinians can be forgiven if they desperately want February to turn out to be sunny, warm and pleasant. 

Well, along comes a Facebook account which I won't name that gives us a forecast for insane amounts of snow during the first half of February in North Carolina and elsewhere.  

This forecast has central North Carolina receiving about four and a half feet of snow over the next couple of weeks. Under this scenario, Atlanta, Georgia would receive three feet or so, and snow would once again dust the ground in places like northern Florida and New Orleans. 

The person who posted this wild forecast wrote, "Definitely not my forecast but when fantasy snow keeps showing up there is probably a reason why."

Yeah, the reason was a bad computer run.  This dude needs to just shut up. 

By the way, I've looked up the seven day National Weather Service forecast for Raleigh, North Carolina. Other than a little bit of light rain and perhaps a thin scrim of snow Wednesday and Wednesday night, no stormy weather is in the forecast for at least the next seven days. 

I'm picking on this one particular social media post with the epic North Carolina snow, but there are zillions of them out there. On YouTube, the headline will be "MAJOR STORMS COMING" with AI images of destroyed cities. Then when you click into the video, the narrator finds ways to hype routine weather. 

Not only do these weird, extreme forecasts scare people, it makes the public lose confidence in meteorologists and weather forecasting in general. Maybe this type of scaremongering is feeding the conspiracy theories that somebody is trying to "control the weather" somehow. 

It also encourages the "cry wolf" syndrome. People see so many forecasts of impending doom that turn out to be fabricated. Then, when a bonafide major weather threats finally arrive, people just say, 'Meh, another false alarm.' These false alarms can endanger lives.  

My rants on this aren't going to stop the fear forecasts on line. There's too much money, and too few morals involved.  

But the next time you see a forecast that says your community will be destroyed by the Storm Of The Century in two weeks, relax. Take a deep breath. Find a reliable weather source like the National Weather Service or your local television meteorologist, and just take their word for what's going to happen. 

 

2025 Was World's Third Warmest; Past Three Years In Top 3 Hottest

 Scientists confirmed this week that 2025 was the world's third hottest year since at least 1850. 

World temperatures compared to the long term 
average since 1850.  As you can see, virtually the
whole world was warmer than that average in 2025.
The blob of white in the Pacific Ocean represents
La Nina, which is supposed to cool the world
a bit, but didn't last year. The white blob
south of Greenland represents melt water from
that ice cap, which keeps the North Atlantic cooler,

As NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI tells us, 2025 was 1.17 degrees Celsius, or 2.11 degrees Fahrenheit above the 20th century average. Last year just barely missed tying 2023 as the second hottest year, missing it by 0.02 degrees Celsius or 0.04 degrees Fahrenheit.

At the start of 2025, climatologists said they expected the year to end up cooler than the previous two because a La Nina pattern had taken over for most of the year. La Ninas tend to cool the Earth slightly. 

That 2025 was a La Nina year and still ranked as third hottest is worrisome, since climate change clearly overwhelmed the expected cooling.

NCEI added that it's now becoming routine for years to end up warmer than the 20th century average by more than 1 degree Celsius:

"Notably, the 10 warmest years in the 176-year record have all occurred since 2015. Of the 10 warmest years on record, former record-holders 2015 and 2016 have dropped to eighth and fourth place, respectively. While 2016 was the first year to exceed the 1.0 degrees C threshold, that benchmark has since been surpassed in 2020 and again in the last three consecutive years (2023-25)."

Another benchmark the NCEI noted was oceanic heat content. In 2025 it was the highest on record, breaking the record set the year before. In fact, 2025 was the fifth year in a row in which oceanic heat content hit record highs.

This is important, since more than 90 percent of excess heat in the Earth's system is absorbed by the ocean. This extra heat content becomes fuel that would further bolster future global warming, and can create more intense storms than a cooler ocean would.  Hotter water also expands, which exacerbates sea level rise. 

NCEI also broke down the 2025 climate year in review into continents. 2025 was North America's fourth warmest year. Nine of the continent's ten warmest years have happened since 2006. The rate of warming in North America was 0.15 degrees Celsius per decade in much of the 20th century. Since 1981, that warming rate has more than doubled to 0.34 degrees Celsius per decade. 

Europe had its second warmest year on record. Asia was third warmest, South America was sixth warmest and Africa was seventh warmest.  The Arctic region had its second warmest year and Antarctica had it fourth warmest year in 2025.

Sources other than NCEI helped give a fuller picture of the extraordinary global warmth of 2025. Per Yale Climate Connections:

"According to Berkeley Earth, 9.1 percent of the Earth's surface had a record-warm year, including 10.6 percent of land areas and 8.3 percent of ocean areas. They estimated that 770 million people - 8.5 percent of Earth's population - experienced a locally warm annual average in 2025, The largest population centers affected by record warmth in 2025 were mostly in Asia, including about 450 million people in China."

Carbon Brief added these stats to the 2025 mix: 

Sea levels reached record highs in 2025, and sea level rise has accelerated noticeably in the past three decades. 

Cumulative ice loss from the world's glaciers and from the Greenland ice sheet reached a new record high in 2025, contributing to sea level rise. 

Concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide all reached record high levels in 2025.

Arctic sea ice saw its lowest winter peak on record and its 10th lowest summer minimum extent. Sea ice around Antarctica  reached its third lowest summer minimum extent. 

PREDICTIONS

The New Year has barely begun but experts are saying 2026 will bring us no relief from the recent climate changed-heat. 

Carbon Brief is saying 2026 will be the second, third or fourth warmest on record, very similar to the temperatures we saw in 2023 and 2025. 

Lingering La Nina might suppress temperatures a little in the opening months of the year, but an expected El Nino later in the year might bring 2026 to a hot finish, says the folks at Carbon Brief.

The Met Office in the UK is also saying 2026 will be among the top four warmest on record, and they're leaning toward this year being the second warmest year, coming in a bit cooler than the record holder 2024.

Berkeley Earth says the odds favor 2026 coming in at #4 on hottest year list, giving it a 51 percent chance of that happening. The odds that 2026 would come in 3rd place is 12 percent,; 2nd place 21 percent.  They give 2026 a 10 percent chance that this year will be the hottest on record. The chances that this year will be merely the fifth warmest or cooler are just 6 percent, according to Berkeley Earth. 

If you look at a chart of how each year's temperature compares to other years, you see that the world began warming rapidly at around 1980. 

But the past three years have been way, way hotter than anything seen before. Nations and regulators,  especially in Asia and in the world shipping industry have cut aerosol pollutants in recent years. These new environmental rules have allowed more sun to heat the Earth, since air pollution is blocking less of it. 

That could at least partly explain why the past three years have been so out whack with the heat. The question now is, will this much faster pace of warming that started in 2023 continue or will it level off a bit? Nobody knows for sure, but the question is important.

It's bad enough that the world has been warming so fast since the 1980s. If we've entered a new, faster pace of climate change, we're definitely not ready for it.  

Editor's Note: We'll soon do a followup post on how the United States did with climate in 2025, including an extraordinarily hot December in the western United States

Sunday Evening Storm: Midwest Has Blizzards And Tornadoes, Vermont/New England Still Bracing For Ice

A view of the increasing clouds during the middle of
this afternoon over St. Albans, Vermont ahead of 
tonight's ice. If you look carefully at the horizon, it's
hazy. Pollutants were being trapped under the
inversion that will make the overnight
freezing rain possible. 

We still are on track for a spell of icy, dangerous driving weather here in Vermont, part of an intense storm that continues to raise havoc around the Great Lakes and Midwest.  

I  don't think I've seen a winter storm in the United States this powerful and wide ranging, with such a wide variety of weather and strong winds since December, 2022. 

I also think in New England, this might be arguably be the most extensive ice storm since 2008.

Here in Vermont, both the 2022 storm, which caused extensive wind damage in Vermont, was definitely worse than this will be, The 2008 ice storm mainly caused some problems in southern Vermont and really trashed central New England. 

The 2008 storm cut power to 30,000 homes and businesses in southern Vermont. We'll see how close we get to that tomorrow, but I'm so far convinced it won't be as bad as in 2008.

The general outlook for this storm here in Vermont hasn't changed much since this morning. Everybody is still in line to get a dose of freezing rain. 

The winter weather advisory is still in effect statewide. Except for most of eastern Vermont. There, the advisory has been upgraded to an ice storm warning. Some areas under that ice storm warning could get a half inch of ice accumulation. That's definitely enough for some trees, branches and power lines to fail.

The warning also states that travel will be nearly impossible during tomorrow morning's commute 

It still looks like the freezing rain will advance from the southwest during the first part of the night, arriving everywhere south and west of Interstate 89 by 11 p.m. or so. It'll spread into the rest of the state over the next couple of hours after that. 

East of the Green Mountains, the freezing rain will probably last well into Monday morning in most places. We're still looking at enough ice in some spots to weigh down tree and power lines enough to break them. 

I'd charge all your devices this evening and pop down to the store real quick if you need any more food or supplies to get you through tomorrow. Also, if possible, move your car from beneath any branches that might give way.

Above freezing temperatures might arrive in the Champlain Valley a wee bit earlier than predicted this morning. That might improve the morning commute there a bit. Again, we'll see.

But even if it's above freezing, pavement that hasn't been salted or sanded will still super icy.  The thin scrim of snow now on gravel roads will have been turned to ice by dawn and stay that way much of the morning. 

So it's no picnic in the Champlain Valley, either. 

It also still looks like almost everyone east of the Greens will have a brief interlude during the afternoon where it gets above freezing. That should melt at least some of the ice.   

The more ice that comes off the trees and power lines the better during that thawing, because winds will really pick up tomorrow night as temperatures plunge. Those winds could gust as high as 40 mph. This is a windy, big storm system after all. 

It'll be in the low teens, give or take, by Tuesday morning. Backside snowfall Monday night and Tuesday won't amount to much. Most valleys will have an inch or less, while the central and northern Green Mountains could pick up a few inches.

THE STORM ELSEWHERE 

As expected, blizzard conditions are raging in parts of Minnesota and are moving into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. 

A no travel advisory was in effect in much of western and southern Minnesota due to heavy snow and strong winds this afternoon. A blizzard warning is still in effect for parts of the state this evening. 

 Not far to the south and east, in Illinois and Indiana, the storm pulled oddly warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures there reached the mid-60s to low 70s. Dewpoints were in the sticky low 60s, which is incredibly high for this time of year. 

The system's approaching strong cold front was slamming into the muggy air, setting off some pretty strong thunderstorms in Illinois and Indiana. A tornado watch was in effect in the two states late this afternoon. A few tornado warnings have also been issued for the area.

The same places in which tornadoes might have touched down will see temperatures in the teens by morning. Talk about a flip-flop!

DOGE Cuts Turned Devastating, Deadly Alaska Storm Into A Surprise, Leaving Some Unprepared

Destruction in western Alaska due to the severe
storm that hit over the weekend. Forecasting for
the storm appears to be substandard because
of cutbacks in funding and staffing for the 
National Weather Service

The horrible storm that caused at least one death and intense destruction in parts of western Alaska was forecasted inaccurately, due to DOGE cuts orchestrated by Elon Musk and the Trump administration, according to a CNN report. 

The bulk of the storm struck an area south of where computer models suggested it would. The models were apparently off because of a lack of good data. 

So-called Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE cutbacks meant some weather balloon launches were scrubbed for lack of funding. 

Per CNN:

"Weather balloon, which are typically launched twice a day, provide crucial information on wind speed and direction, air temperature, humidity, and other measurements. Balloon data is fed directly into sophisticated models used to predict the weather. 

However, there were few, if any, balloons to take measurements of what the weather was doing as the remains of Typhoon Halong approached Alaska late last week." 

Likely because of the lack of the balloon data, computer models had the storm striking the area around the Bering Strait, the point where Alaska and Russia are the closest to each other. 

Instead, the storm hit struck coastal southwest Alaska, sending deadly storm surges into communities like Kwigillingok and Kipnuk and other remote towns.  Houses floated away, some with people inside. Rescuers were able to retrieve at least two dozen people. However, one person is confirmed dead and two are missing. 

National Weather Service forecasts in Alaska did issue many warnings for the area that was hit hardest boy the storm, but they did so without the help of accurate model projects made days in advance.

That might have meant that warnings that should have gone out sooner didn't. 

The Alaska Beacon compared this storm with another ex-typhoon named Merbok in 2022.

"Unlike Merkok, which was very well forecast by the global models, this one's final track and intensity weren't clear until the storm was within 36 hours of crossing into Alaska's waters. That's too late for evacuations in many places."

The area hit by the storm is remote, so it's not easy to deal with an extreme storm. It's not like the Lower 48, where people can evacuate to a nearby school, municipal building or hotel when severe weather looms.  In Alaska, you need more time to prepare. 

The Alaska Beacon also tells us:  "There have not been any upper air weather balloon observations at Saint Paul Island in the Bering Sea since late August or at Kotzebue since February. Bethel and Cold Bay are limited to one per day instead of two. At Nome, there were no weather balloons for two full days as the storm."

Meteorologists are still trying to assess to what extent the lack of balloon launches had on forecast accuracy. 

 CNN continues:

"'Not having balloons didn't help,' the forecast, said a NOAA official who spoke on the condition of anonymity, although forecasts for Alaska also really on data from Asia as storms move from that region into North America." 

All the major computer models had errors in the projected path of the storm, though it's hard to tease out  how much of that error was due to the lack of balloon launches and their data, and how much might have been from other factors.  

The aftermath of the storm is more difficult in remote areas like the west coast of Africa. There's no Home Depot right around the corner to buy replacement roofing, windows and flooring. For those whose houses were destroyed, there's nowhere to go. 

Hundreds of people have been displaced. The Alaska Beacon says residents are face with an impossible decision: They could go to come place like Anchorage for the winter and return next summer to rebuild. But cities are expensive. 

However, there's no housing in the remote coastline of Alaska to move into. All disasters are incredibly difficult for the victims. In Alaska, it's even more so. 

 

After A Weird Peak Hurricane Season Calm, Atlantic Ocean Getting Busy.

Hurricane Gabrielle has a classic hurricane look
in a satellite photo taken this afternoon

A very odd spell with no tropical storm activity at the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean is over, big time. 

There's a strong hurricane out there now, and there's two more wannabe hurricanes or tropical storms bubbling out there. 

Luckily, there's no real threat to the United States coastline, at least for several days at least. 

Let's go to the hurricane first.

HURRICANE GABRIELLE 

Highest sustained winds in Hurricane Gabrielle reached 120 mph late this morning as it headed slowly northward from a position about 180 miles southeast of Bermuda. 

This qualifies Gabrielle as a major hurricane, because major hurricanes need winds of at least 111 mph. 

It's only the second hurricane of the season, given we had that long quiet period. The trend this year is either big hurricane or wimpy little tropical storms.  All the storms except Hurricane Erin were pretty wimpy, pretty brief tropical storms. 

The exception was Hurricane Erin, which reached Category 5 status in August, them passed well off the U.S. East Coast. It was big enough to cause coastal flooding and beach erosion and dangerous surf, but it thankfully missed us. 

Gabrielle will miss us, too. 

It began its first few days as a wimp struggling with dry air and strong upper level winds. It could have ended up as another lame, small tropical storm.  But in the past three days or so, Gabrielle has really blossomed into a powerhouse. It escaped the dry air, strong overhead winds slackened and warm water fueled the storm.

On satellite pictures today, Gabrielle was a classic looking strong hurricane. It had a distinct eye, with a symmetrical swirl of dense clouds around that center.  It looks like Gabrielle has a chance to strengthen for a few more hours this afternoon and tonight before a weakening trend sets in. 

It'll start accelerating to the northeast and east tomorrow after throwing some gusty outer showers at Bermuda. It's no threat to land, except to the Azores in the eastern Atlantic. It might still be a hurricane when it gets near those islands Thursday night or Friday morning. 

Gabreille will start a weakening trend tomorrow as it encounters colder ocean water and stronger upper level winds 

It will have turned into a nontropical but still powerful storm northwest of Spain by Saturday. The storm could menace the UK as a former hurricane toward Sunday, but we're not sure yet. 

The United States will, like in the case of Erin, see some rough surf and rip currents because of Gabrielle, but that's it for us. But there's other things starting to stir out there.

OTHER SUSPECTS

An area of showers and storms in the central tropical Atlantic is slowly getting better organized, and forecasters think it will develop into Tropical Storm Humberto late this week as it heads northwestward. 

No promises yet, but it's beginning to look like wannabe Humberto might very roughly follow the tracks of Erin and Gabrielle and stay far away from the U.S. East Coast. We'll get a better confirmation of whether or not this is true later in the week, but so far I'm not too worried about this one. Even it develops into a full-fledged hurricane, which seems very possible.

There's another disturbance west of wannabe Humberto that's currently closer to the northern Leeward Islands. It's possible it could turn into Tropical Storm Imelda somewhere over the southwest Atlantic Ocean east of Florida, maybe in the Bahamas. 

Because this one will end up so much closer to the U.S. if it starts to develop late this week, as forecasters expect. Wannabe Imelda could turn into a threat if it develops starting late this week. Nobody is sure on this one yet.  It's nothing to worry about yet, but people in Florida and the East Coast  out to monitor this baby starting this upcoming weekend. 

 

Wednesday Morning Vermont Update: Drops Of Rain, But Little Drought Relief

A few sprinkles helped enhance the colors in the sky
over St. Albans, Vermont Tuesday evening. The 
showers only produced a trace of rain here. 

Tantalizing drops of rain have fallen here and there in Vermont over the past 24 hours, slightly wetting the ground in a few spots, but still doing almost nothing to relieve drought conditions.  

A very brief downpour blew through the Burlington area last evening, depositing 0.16 inches of rain. But that left Burlington easily among the wettest spot in Vermont Tuesday, which really isn't saying much. 

A little more rain is in the forecast which will keep the worsening drought slightly at bay, but there's still not much of a prospect of any super soaking rains soon.

A semi-decent area of showers was over parts of Addison and northwest Rutland counties as of 8 a.m. today. A few spot showers will continue today, especially in the southern half of Vermont, where a few lucky towns could get a little over a tenth of an inch of rain, while others say dry. Hit and miss again. 

Today should  be about as autumnal as yesterday, with highs within a few degrees either side of 70.

SLIGHTLY WET COLD FRONT

The cold front we've been talking about for the end of the week looks like it will graciously dampen Vermont a little, which is nice.  But once again, it will be a bit of a swing and a miss for heavier rains.

The last cold front this past Sunday and Monday was supposed to slow down and create extra rain over Vermont. Instead, most of that extra rain fell in northern New York and extreme northwest Vermont.

It looks like a somewhat similar rainfall pattern will strike again, with some key differences.  

The latest rain forecast from the National Weather 
Service. Only a quarter inch of rain is expected through
early Saturday in most places. 

It'll start off cool again tomorrow with dawn temperatures in the 40s for many of us. Some southwest breezes in the afternoon will bring temperatures into the mid-70s, which is just a smidge below normal,

Increasing clouds will promise rain but there's a catch. The approaching cold front will start out with great dynamics, dropping decent rains Thursday night in northern New York despite a "meh" moisture supply. 

Over in the St. Lawrence Valley, they could see a good 0.5 to 0,75 inches of rain Thursday night and Friday. 

As the front gets into Vermont Friday, it will start to weaken.  It will have enough oomph left to drop some rain, especially north, and that might even be a rumble or two of thunder. 

Expected rainfall amounts are subject to change, and the forecast could change a lot by the time we get to the event. 

But at this point it looks like rainfall with the actually front will only amount to a quarter inch, give or take. It'll be a little more to the northwest, where the northern Champlain Valley could see more than a third an inch with the front by Friday afternoon. The south and east loses again, with maybe a 0.1 to 0.2 inches.

After the cold front goes through, a chilly pool of air aloft - an upper level low - will probably basically sit and spin somewhere near the Vermont/Quebec border Friday night through Saturday night. 

That will keep light showers going over much of Vermont. They should be just inconsequential sprinkles in southern valleys, if that. More frequent light showers should hit central Vermont and the valleys of northern Vermont Friday night and Saturday, but they won't amount to all that much. 

The western slopes and ridgelines of the central and northern Green Mountains could get a decent dampening with this regime through Saturday. Those high elevation places could see a quarter inch of rain. 

Expect continued pre-fall weather Friday and Saturday as highs stay in the 60s, except lower 70s in warmer, sunnier southern valleys. 

BEYOND SATURDAY.

The dry times return after Saturday. There might be a few lingering sprinkles in the north and mountains Sunday. But that will be it for several days, as it looks now. Dry high pressure looks like it will stall nearby later Sunday through at least next Thursday morning. 

That'll bring low humidity, sunshine and somewhat of a warming trend, all bad news because that week of weather would dry out whatever meager rains we see through Saturday.  

National Weather Service Hiring Back Some Meteorologists

Hey, Elon, we told you it was a bad idea

The National Weather Service is now able to
reverse many of the DOGE cuts and will
rehire hundreds of meteorologists 
foolishly let go earlier this year.

Elon Musk and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency slashed their way through federal workers last winter and early spring, leaving critical tasks under-staffed, and actually probably costing more money than we actually saved. 

Now that Musk and Donald Trump saw their famous bromance break up, a few pockets of the federal government are reconsidering these cuts. 

Thankfully, the National Weather Service is one of those agencies. 

Per CNN:

"The National Weather Service has received permission to hire 450 meteorologists, hydrologists, and radar technicians just months after being hit hard by Department of Government Efficiency-related cuts and early retirement incentives. 

The new hiring number includes 126 new positions that were previously approved and will apply to 'front line mission critical'  personnel, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration official told CNN."

This whole thing is so stupid, anyway. Pretty much everyone warned we were losing the people needed to keep Americans safe from storms and other weather hazards. Now, taxpayer dollars are going to train new employees, when just months ago we had experienced meteorologist who were already there and needed no onboarding. 

CNN again: 

"How much time/money is it going to cost to train a bunch of new people when we had already-trained people in place,' asked another NOAA official, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media. It is possible that some of the new hires will have been previously trained employees who were let go in the DOGE cuts."

Outcry does work sometimes even in the era of Trump. Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers have argued for a public safety exemption for NWS employees, much like law enforcement is exempted from cuts due to their central role in keeping us safe. 

The new hires will ease but not erase critical staffing shortages in National Weather Service offices across the nation.  It's unclear if some of the weather balloon launches that had been suspended due to the shortages will resume.  

Those weather balloon launches are necessary to gauge complex atmospheric factors that greatly influence the severity of tornadoes, flash floods and other dangerous weather. 

 This rehiring, and the renewal of some services the National Weather Service relies upon, sets back, at least for now, the dream of some in the MAGA crowd to privatize weather forecasting in the U.S.

The National Weather Service offers the bulk of its data free to the public, including private weather forecasting companies. 

Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation playbook that the Trump administration seems to be following, had said that the NWS "should fully commercialize its forecasting operations."

In other words, a private entity should take over forecasting for profit. Which always means higher costs and poorer results for us.  And would it lead to a world in which we receive tornado, flash flood and hurricane warnings only if we can afford to pay for them?  Does it mean low income people don't "deserve" life-saving warnings?

I'm not sure, but that seems to be the idea.

For now, we're safe from that dystopian idea. 

Meanwhile, it will take months to rehire the National Weather Service meteorologists. Hurricane season is now in full swing. Dangerous flash floods, wildfires, heat waves and other hazards continue to affect large parts of the nation. 

We've so far been lucky that the National Weather Service staff shortages haven't endangered public safety very much.  Let's hope that continues until everybody's is rehired, and beyond. 

Arguably Worst Vermont Smoke Attack Yet, And Sunday Rains Not Behaving As Expected

Smoke obscuring Lake Champlain Saturday, as
seen at St. Albans Bay, Vermont. 

Cough, cough.

Boy, yesterday was rough in Vermont. Sure, it was a nice day, except for the thick clouds of smoke and haze we endured. 

Unexpectedly, Saturday probably brought Vermont the most polluted air of the year, thanks to wildfire smoke from Canada. 

We knew days in advance there would be smoke in the air, but most forecasters expected the bulk of it to remain aloft, with just some relatively minor dents to our air quality down here on the ground. 

Instead, a zone of sinking air pushed the smoke to the ground in a band from southern Quebec down through western New England and extreme eastern New York. The result was some of the worst air I've ever seen, even worse than what we saw in 2023. 

Montreal Saturday morning became the most polluted city in the world, 

The air quality index fell to near 200 in some places across northern Vermont. The air endangered people with pre-existing health issues, and was generally bad for everyone. The air improved somewhat toward Saturday evening, but was still pretty bad. 

Like it or not, we all smoked at least a couple cigarettes Saturday. 

The air quality alert in northern and central Vermont has expired, at least for now.  Far southern Vermont remains under an air quality alert, though. Still, the air isn't great. As of this morning, the air quality index was somewhere in the 115 to 125 range, which is considered unhealthy for sensitive groups. 

Smoke forecasts look better later today as the air cleans up a little more, but not completely. That's temporary.  It looks like another batch of smoke might come down from the north tomorrow, so it's not over.   

Since we're going to have repeated batches of northwest winds from Canada through the upcoming week, and since there's still a lot of large fires burning in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, we can expect more smoky, unhealthy air to blow through probably until at least next weekend. 

TODAY

 This is turning into a long post, as things are actually pretty busy in the weather department.

As expected, a lot of us in Vermont woke up to a rainy early Sunday morning. But the rain wasn't working out quite as predicted, especially in the north. 

It was suppose to barely rain in far northern Vermont, so why did I wake up to a torrential downpour before 7 a.m, in St. Albans?

 I'm not blaming the National Weather Service or anybody else. The subtlest shifts in the atmosphere can radially change things at the last moment.  

The result was a split into two rainy areas. Southern Vermont saw steady, sometimes briefly heavy rain, Sunday morning rains, just as predicted. In fact, forecasters were carefully watching central and eastern New York and perhaps into Bennington County in Vermont for the risk of rains torrential enough to cause flash flooding.

As of 9 a.m. there was no trouble, at least in Vermont. Any flood threat in these areas should end by late morning or early afternoon. 

But another batch of occasionally heavy rain set up in far northern Vermont. So places like St. Albans, Jay Peak and Newport that were expected perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain at most got much, much more than that. 

It looks like a push of humid air acted like a snow plow, causing a narrow band of rising air that formed into a line of downpours that found its way to the Canadian border.

Central Vermont mostly missed out, at least through 9 a.m. Some rain did fall in Burlington, making this the 32nd weekend in a row with at least some rain. We broke the record for most such consecutive weekends last Sunday, and this solidified the record even more,.

Still, central Vermont is getting a bit on the dry side, so it's too bad they missed out, especially since it appears not much rain is in the forecast for the next week. 

REST OF TODAY

After the morning weather disturbance with its locally heavy rain move out, we'll be left with a return to very humid conditions.

That means cloudy skies will give way to some sun, and temperatures should get into the low 80s. The humidity and subtle left over disturbances in the atmosphere could touch off some widely scattered thunderstorms. Most places won't see a storm this afternoon and evening, but some of us will.

I don't see anything severe, just local downpours here and there and some lightning. There might be a bit of an uptick in scattered storms this evening as a weak wind shift line come through. 

GOING FORWARD

The forecast we've been touting hasn't changed much for the upcoming week, other than a few tweaks.

Monday and Tuesday now both look quite warm, with highs in the 80s to maybe near 90 both days in a couple spots. 

Some thunderstorms might develop Tuesday as the first of a series of cold fronts come in.  Wednesday should be slightly cooler, but another cold front could set off more thunderstorms. It's too soon to determine how many and how strong they might be.

Then, after that, we have that cool spell we've been talking about. It doesn't look like it will be quite as chilly or as long lasting as first thought. Only one day - Friday - will be much cooler than normal. It now looks like the coldest air will stay up in Quebec. 

But otherwise, Thursday through Sunday look bright, dry, sunny, mild and refreshing. Then it will warm up again. Don't know how much yet. 

 

cold snap\

While some guidance continues to show lingering rain behind yet
another boundary on Thursday, our region will largely be high
and dry Thursday through Sunday as an expansive ridge of high
pressure slowly migrates eastward. Only Friday looks to be
anomalously cool, per NAEFS mean and EFI climatological tools, with
temperatures probably resembling what we saw this past Monday.
Generally the much cooler air mass that was on the table is
looking more likely to bypass us to the northeast, but for those
who desire warm, but not hot, days with low humidity should
have a nice weekend in store. As noted by the previous
forecaster, we`ll still need to monitor potential for wildfire
smoke to be advected in from the north, as it may be present
not far away later this week in northern Ontario.

Ominous Real World Effects Of NOAA/NWS Cutbacks Beginning To Show

Real effects of Trump administration cutbacks at 
NOAA are now starting to be felt, and it's going
to keep getting worse and worse. 

 At this point, I'd be willing to wager that the forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are now less accurate and less thorough then they were before Donald Trump took office. 

Between the firings, the slashing of funding, and the voluntary buyouts - another 300 National Weather Service employees were expected to take the latest buyout this past week - the NWS is already crippled. 

I fear the short staffing is already leading to missed forecasts during spells of dangerous weather. And this will only keep getting worse

Eight of the 122 NWS local offices across the nation will have seven or fewer meteorologists doing the work of 12 to 15 people, reports the Washington Post. 

Some of the worst staff shortages are in places where fast-developing and fast-evolving tornadoes, severe storms and flash floods are most common, especially this time of year. These offices include Kansas City, Louisville, Des Moines, Grand Rapids and Omaha. 

The Omaha National Weather Service just recently had to deal with an outbreak of tornadoes and exceptionally destructive hail storms. Those storms required careful monitoring of a complex set of severe storms and quick warnings to the public.  

The Omaha office still managed to do an excellent job of warning residents. However, a tornado that did not have a National Weather Service warning hit Storm Lake, Iowa, which is Omaha's coverage zone.  Sometimes developing tornadoes are missed by even the most conscientious meteorologist, but I still have to wonder if staffing shortages created the environment to miss signs the Storm Lake tornado was forming. 

Here's how things can get missed, as John Sokich, a recently retired director of congressional affairs for the NWS, explained to USA Today. 

Meteorologists are under particular stress during severe weather, when lives are at stake. '"'You're talking 12-hour shifts and you constantly have to be on point,' he said. 'It's physically draining to keep going like that and something will break. Working through high impact weather events for multiple days presents physical limitations is stressful and mentally draining.'

Even more draining when some of the tools you need to monitor the severe weather are no longer available.  

We've already reported on the reduction of weather balloon launches, which help forecasters understand the complexities in the atmosphere that can tell them when and where dangerous storms will hit. 

The Sacramento, California National Weather Service office will do almost all of its forecasting during days shifts, as the night will be minimally staffed unless severe weather is present. This change means that such things as fire weather watches and winter storm warnings will mostly only be issued during the day. 

If these warnings are not issued in a timely manner, that could give emergency managers left time to prepare for hazardous conditions. 

As I've previously reported, the research arm is taking the biggest hit, as the Trump administration thinks anything remotely related to climate change is off limits, because in Trump's addled mind, climate change doesn't exist.

The Pensacola News Journal sums up the effects of the NOAA research cuts just in Florida: 

"If the proposed budget cuts to NOAA are enacted as is, it would have wide-ranging impacts on climate research, significantly decrease the accuracy of hurricane forecasting, end climate monitoring for farmers reliant on the service and ultimately leave coastal communities, like the entire state of Florida, to fend for themselves during hurricane season."

On an even more macro level, the American Meteorological Association and National Weather Association, released a detailed, grim statement about the cutbacks. 

The statement said in part: 

"Without NOAA research, National Weather Service weather models and products will stagnate, observational data collection will be reduced, public outreach will decrease, undergraduate and graduate student support will drop, and NOAA funding for universities will plummet. 

In effect, the scientific backbone and workforce needed to keep weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings accurate and effective will be drastically undercut with unknown - and yet almost certainly disastrous - consequences for public safety and economic health."

This excellent joint statement between the AMA and NWA give us examples of how this all will affect you:

"Imagine what will  happen to tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings if we don't have a robust national weather radar network? What will happen to reservoir management when critical information on rainfall and runoff goes missing? What will happen when Hurricane Hunter aircraft are delayed or data from their instruments are not available to improve hurricane track and landfall forecasts?

NOAA research affects the lives of American taxpayers every day. It is vital to the work of the National Weather Service and the NOAA mission to predict the environment and share that information with businesses, communities, state and local government, and citizens."

 National Weather Service outreach to the public is being cutback too. The National Weather Service office in Sacramento said it would reduce overnight staffing, stop directly answering its publicly listed phone lines, post less often on social media and delay responses to media requests. 

That's fine I'm sure with the Trump administration, as transparence is anathema to them. 

The Trump administration is trying like hell to keep the effects of the cutbacks secret, as if it somehow won't become obvious to the public.

As evidence, here's a excerpt from the Washington Post:

"The Post spoke with 10 employees across the Weather Service and its parent agencies, NOAA and the Commerce Department, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Concerned with leaks to the media, the administration is installing monitoring software on NOAA employees' devices to track their communications, two current employees said."

 It seems the Trump administration has particular enmity toward the heroes in our American story. This administration is screwing over veterans, farmers, health care workers and aid organizations and National Weather Service meteorologists. 

And they are our heroes. 

On most days, the weather is routine and mundane, and we rely on these federal meteorologists just to let us know whether we should take an umbrella or our sunglasses to work with us tomorrow morning. 

Nice, but not critical.

But when the weather gets dangerous, these National Weather Service meteorologists save lives. I'd love to know how many over the years, but it's many, many thousands. How many people saved their own lives over the years because the fled to basements and storm shelters because the National Weather Service told them a tornado was coming?

How many of those people would have died had they not received the tornado warnings? Or not fled the coast because there was no hurricane warning saying you'd better get out or else?  . Or a flash flood was menacing their town?

I was eternally grateful to our meteorologists at the National Weather Service office here in South Burlington during our summer flood disasters in 2023 and 2024. 

The flood of 2023 killed two people in Vermont. The floods of 2024 did exactly the same. But how many people would have been killed or injured had the dire warnings the NWS released not happened? 

Neither the July. 10, 2023 nor the July 11, 2024 flood was a surprise because National Weather Service meteorologists bombarded us with warnings, detailed, accurate forecasts and great advice.

Surprises and inaccurate information are what kill people. Gutting the National Weather Service, and NOAA as a whole will greatly increase the likelihood that these inevitable, scary storms will take us by surprise.

Just more evidence that - false campaign rhetoric to the contrary - Donald Trump and his minions do NOT care about people like you and me. At all.  

NOAA Cutbacks From DOGE And Trump Are Continuing To Degrade Weather Forecast Accuracy. More Balloon Launches Scrubbed

DOGE staff cuts at NOAA means more weather balloon
launches have been cut. Those weather balloons are
critical for forecasting all sorts of weather. Including
severe storms and tornadoes. As we head into
tornado season, forecast accuracy will decline,
making these storms even more dangerous. 

 Your weather forecasts might get even less accurate than I thought with all the cutbacks at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA. 

Elon Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency or DOGE has decimated staffing at NOAA, leading to tough decisions on how to manage weather forecasts, and more importantly, warning the public when dangerous weather looms. 

Up to 1,000 NOAA employees have been let go. 

The latest issues is that more National Weather Service offices are canceling weather balloon launches due to staff shortages.  

That will lead to less reliable weather forecasts, and quite likely unpleasant and deadly storm surprises starting in the near future. 

THE LATEST CUTS

Per the Associated Press:

"The normally twice-daily launches of weather balloons in about 100 locations provide information that forecasters and computer models use to figure out what the weather will be and how dangerous it can get, so cutting back is a mistake, said eight different scientists, meteorologists and former top officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration -  the weather service's parent agency."

Believe me, it's not just eight scientists. That's just the ones the AP quoted for their article. There's universal derision and frustration with the NOAA cutbacks.  It will cost lives.

Not that Trump and Elon Musk care. 

We previously reported cutbacks on weather balloon launches from Kotzebue, Alaska; Albany, New York and Gray, Maine. 

Now, we learn balloon launches will be eliminated at Omaha, Nebraska and Rapid City, South Dakota. Twice daily launches will be reduced to once daily at Aberdeen, South Dakota, Grand Junction, Colorado, Green Bay, Wisconsin, Gaylord, Michigan, North Platte, Nebraska and Riverton, Wyoming. 

On top of all the launch cancelations due to staffing shortages,  some balloon launches are not happening because of a helium shortage. Also, there's sometimes technical issues that prevent balloon launches.

WHY THIS MATTERS

Taken together, that leaves big holes and blank spots in the data that goes into comprehensive weather forecasts. 

Many of the newly ended ballon launches are in the northern United States, where the jet stream is most commonly positioned in the spring and early summer.  The jet stream controls weather systems, so you really want to examine that part of the atmosphere for signs of storms. 

That lack of weather balloons will hinder that effort. 

We are now at the beginning of the peak severe storm and tornado season in the United States. Those balloon launches offer critical insights into what is happening on the atmosphere, helping meteorologists predict when severe weather - including tornadoes - might hit and how bad they'll get. 

Since there will now be a big data hole from those canceled balloon launches in the middle of the nation, the eastern United States in particular might have poorer weather forecasts. That's because the weather generally flows west to east. 

"For those of us east of the Rocky Mountains, this is probably the worst time of year," said (University of Oklahoma environmental professor Renee)  McPherson,'  'It's the time of year that we have some of our largest tornado outbreaks, especially as we move into April and May."

"This frankly is just dangerous," McPherson told the AP.

We had an incredibly severe storm outbreak in mid-March that claimed 42 lives. However, lives were saved because the storm was anticipated well in advance. That gave people, including emergency managers, time to prepare. When tornadoes started touching down, warnings went out so that people could seek shelter. That surely saved lives. 

That's the state of affairs with most severe weather outbreaks. 

With the balloon launch cancelations, we'll still get a heads up from the National Weather Service about approaching dangerous weather. But accuracy levels on the location of the bad weather and its intensity could well wane.

Additionally, when severe storms and tornadoes actually develop, short staffed National Weather Service offices might miss the signs of an impending tornado, and thus not issue any warnings until its too late.

If a tornado is approaching,  you want everybody to know about it. The best way to get that word out is through a National Weather Service tornado warning. 

These balloon launch problems will also probably interfere with hurricane forecasts, and predictions for wildfire weather conditions. 

Less important but still worth noting is that your day to day forecasts for routine weather will likely degrade, too.  The joke is that meteorologists are always wrong, but that's not at all backed up by the facts. 

The forecast for today actually has about a 97 percent chance of being accurate. A forecast for three days from now is about 90 percent. A forecast for a week from now has a 70 percent accuracy rate.

These excellent figures will worsen as the Trump administration hacks away at NOAA staffing and resources.  

Trump, Musk and the other oligarchs now seizing control of the United States are protecting from severe weather by their wealth and staff. As opposed us rubes who live in the real world and deal with real things. 

But the oligarchs don't care about us. The DOGE cuts aren't really about saving taxpayer money. It's all about lining pockets of said oligarchs to make them more rich and powerful.  No proof here, but I suspect the government "savings" will never go into most of our hands. 

After all, the DOGE cuts are designed to finance tax cuts for the rich, as the Republican led Congress is set to do.

Follow the money indeed! 

 

Even More Damaging Layoffs Coming To NOAA As Trump, Musk Care Nothing About Public Safety.

About 1,000 more layoffs announced by the Trump
administration will further worsen weather
forecasting and public safety in the U.S.
Not that Trump or Elon Musk care or anything. 

NOAA and the National Weather Service are already crippled by Trump and Elon Musk-forced layoffs, as I've already reported. 

On Wednesday, things appear to be getting worse. 

As the Associated Press reported Wednesday afternoon:

"The Trump administration is starting another round of job cuts - this one more than 1,000 - at the nation's weather, ocean and fisheries agency, four people familiar with the matter tell the Associated Press.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday began plans to lay off 10 percent of its current workforce, people inside and outside the agency said, with some of them requesting anonymity due to fear of retribution.

The numbers were presented to NOA employees and managers were asked to submit names of positions for layoffs to agency headquarters, which will then go to NOAA's parent agency, the Department of Commerce, on Wednesday, the people said."

We already had earlier rounds of Trump firings at NOAA, encouraged retirements at NOAA, and the elimination of virtually all new employees. Which, as the Associated Press reports, NOAA will have eliminated one of four jobs at the agency. 

Project 2025, a blueprint Trump minions developed in the months and years before he was elected, called for the elimination of NOAA and the National Weather Service. They said that privatizing the whole thing would be better.

Because throwing up paywalls in order to receive life-saving weather warnings, diminishing public safety and making weather forecasts less accurate seems to be in the national interest, in the backwards upside down thinking of Trump and his fanboys and girls. 

Per the Associated Press:

"'This is not government efficiency,' said former NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad. 'It is the first steps toward eradication. There is no way to make these kinds of cuts without removing or strongly compromising mission capabilities.'"

"....NOAA spokeswoman Monica Allen said the agency's policy is not to discuss internal personnel matters, ut said NOAA will 'continue to provide weather information, forecasts, and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission."

Which I call bullshit on, since before the new cuts, weather monitoring such as balloon launches, hurricane forecasting and other services ares scaled back.  So forecasts, information and warnings are already degraded. 

Don't take my word for it. Per AP again:

"Weather forecasts will worsen and 'people are going to start seeing this very quickly,' warned former NOAA chief scientist Craig McLean".  

He also said research cuts will make it harder or impossible for the United States to keep improving weather forecasts and monitoring. 

"People are silently watching the United States decline as a technological leader.... America got to the moon, but our weather forecasts won't be the greatest."

 

Deadly Storm Causes Catastrophic Floods, Tornadoes, Winds, Widespread Damage

Flooding in Kentucky killed at least eight people over the
weekend as an intense winter storm spread havoc to
most places in the central and eastern U.S. 

 The storm affecting us in Vermont also as expected caused deadly havoc in other parts of the nation as moves coast to coast. 

At least eight deaths have been reported in Kentucky due to the flooding. The death toll could rise as flooding is still ongoing as of this afternoon. 

All of Kentucky was under a flood warning this morning, as was much of West Virginia and parts of Ohio, Indiana and Tennessee.

To add insult to injury. snow fell in much of Kentucky Sunday as flood waters continued to swirl. Louisville suffered widespread flooding Saturday. Sunday morning, snow swept into the city, helping to cause on a highway in the city. 

On Sunday, a levee along the Obion River failed near the town of Rives, rapidly flooding the town and forcing hasty water rescues. 

Mudslides were reported in eastern Kentucky, and a rockslide temporarily shut down Interstate 69 in Dawson Springs, Kentucky. 

Damaging floods also extended into western Virginia. 

 Also, depending on where you were in West Virginia, you might be under a flood warning, a blizzard warning or possibly both. 

Further south, tornadoes and severe weather were the issue. 

Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport reported a gust to 69 mph during the early morning storms.   At least one death was reported in Atlanta where a tree fell on a house. 

Two confirmed tornadoes were reported near Monticello, Georgia, southeast of Atlanta. 

A remarkably huge area is under high wind warnings or wind advisories. They extended this morning from Mississippi and Florida all the way through New England. 

As of late afternoon, at least 310,000 power outages were reported, mostly in Virginia, Georgia, Alabama and West Virginia 

Meanwhile, intense cold was plunging southward through the Plains. 

Parts of North Dakota were expecting three consecutive nights in the minus 30s, with wind chills in the 50s below zero. 

Frigid temperatures are plunging south into Texas. Extreme cold weather watches for expected wind chills below zero are in effect as far south as central Texas. 

In the snowy, icy Northeast, a blizzard warning was in effect for the mountains of south central Pennsylvania where heavy snow was forecast to combine with winds up to 65 mph. A blizzard warning was also up in the northwest corner of New York around Massena. 

I'll have an update on the storm in Vermont very late this afternoon or early evening. 

Quick Evening Update On Wannabe Hurricane or Tropical Storm Sara

The clouds associated with Wannabe Sara looked much
thicker and more organized than this morning, but still
not organized enough to be a tropical storm.

 The thunderstorms in the Caribbean that the National Hurricane Center have been watching closely a got a lot better organized as we went through the day. 

As of late afternoon, we still don't have a well-defined circulation with this thing, so for now, NHC has settled on temporarily giving it the clunky name Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen.

If it develops a circulation and increases its sustained winds to at least 39 mph, this mess will be renamed Tropical Storm Sara.  That transformation into Sara could happen at any time. I'm guessing tonight or tomorrow morning. 

This looks really ominous for Honduras. Wannabe Sara is headed that way, and forecasts indicate it will stall near that nation's coastline Friday and the weekend. So, it'll basically sit there and dump buckets of rain there for days. 

One to two feet of rain could easily fall on northern Honduras because of this storm. Needless to say the flooding and landslides if that happens would be catastrophic.  

This sort of reminds me of Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which caused immense flooding in Honduras and Nicaragua that claimed 11,000 lives. Mitch was much stronger than Sara is expected to become, so let's hope things go much better than they did in 1998.

After its expected big stall, Wannabe Sara is expected to start moving northwestward, probably crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula next week.   It could move slowly over land and greatly weaken. Or it could brush the edge of the peninsula and maintain a decent amount of strength. 

That has eventual implications for Florida. Uncertain long range forecasts have Wannabe Sara emerging into the Gulf of Mexico and then heading north and east toward Florida. Might not happen, but that's the consensus for now.

The question is, will Sara at that point be a hurricane, or will be a sloppy, weak mess by the time it gets to Florida, if it does. 

We'll have to wait and see