Vermont Remains On The Edge Of Wild Weather Pattern; Slight Flood Threat But Not As Bad As Further 'South

The first rains of our wet period are seen yesterday
over Lake Champlain near Alburgh. Some areas of
Vermont will see a couple inches or more of rain, with
a localized flood threat. The Northeast Kingdome
looks like it will largely miss out

 As you've seen in the headlines, there's been a lot of rough weather in the United States this summer. 

One long stripe of the nation has really gotten nailed. It goes from Minnesota and Wisconsin, through the Great Lakes, into the Ohio Valley and finally the Mid-Atlantic States.

That zone has repeatedly gotten some horrible thunderstorms and even tornadoes. Repeatedly. With no real end in sight.

Yesterday, a nasty tornado swept through parts of northeast Wisconsin, trashing large sections of Menasha, Neenah and Appleton.  Also Monday, severe thunderstorms packing 80 mph winds and possible tornadoes harassed the Chicago area. Flooding was also reported. 

Today, severe thunderstorms will hit the Mid-Atlantic states again. More flash flooding is a risk, too, especially in the New York City metro area. 

 Here in Vermont, we've mostly gotten glancing blows from all this wild, weird summer weather. Sometimes, it does mange to hit us, like when we had that pair of tornadoes in June, or those destructive microbursts in the Northeast Kingdom and southern Vermont earlier this month. But we haven't gotten the worst of it in the Green Mountain State. 

This time around, we're on the edge of the "fun" today and tomorrow. We don't have to worry about severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding is a bit of a threat, especially in southern Vermont, but - fingers crossed - this doesn't look like it will be anything widespread or super destructive.

Though I'm pretty relaxed about the forecast, this kind of weather system can pull surprises. Things won't turn out exactly as the current predictions. I'll give it a go as to what will happen, based on what the National Weather Service is telling us this morning. 

TODAY

Forecasted rain fall through Friday morning, from the
National Weather Service. Note that rainfall 
amounts will be more variable than depicted here. 

There were some showers and thunderstorms and downpours yesterday, mostly in the Adirondacks, bu they were pretty widely scattered. 

That kind of stuff will be more widespread today. Especially the further west and south you go.

Based on radar images at 9 a.m. today. you'd think a big dose of needed rain would be starting in Vermont very soon. There was a big stripe of rain, with a few embedded downpours in the central Adirondack, extending down to places just west of Albany, New York.

But this stuff was just barely crawling eastward. And it looks like it will weaken as it does so.

However, more showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as that slow weather system continues to press grudgingly eastward today. 

It will probably rain most places today, though showers and thunderstorms will be especially hit and maybe mostly miss in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Areas south and west of Interstate 89 have the best chance of seeing rain and downpours, possibly multiple hits. That's especially true down in far southern Vermont and up toward  Albany/Glens Falls/Lake George, New York and on its the Adirondacks, 

This area has the best chances of local flash floods today, though I'd emphasize that the chances of that happening are pretty low. Mostly because it's been so dry lately. Still, if any one place gets nailed by numerous downpours, one right after the other, then there could be a local high water problem

TONIGHT

Showers and storms will continue off an on. Since the wet airflow will come from the south and east, off the Atlantic, the best chance of heavier rain is on the east slopes of the southern Green Mountains and in the east slopes of the Adirondacks. 

Again, no widespread flooding, but there could be a pocket here or there the could have a creek or small stream overflow enough to damage a gravel road or driveway, or possibly damage a particularly unlucky  house. 

WEDNESDAY

By tomorrow morning, the center of our sluggish storm will be somewhere in the general vicinity of New York City, give or take. That set up will keep sending waves of showers northward into Vermont.  Again, the best chance of heavier rain is in southern Vermont. And maybe the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains maybe as far north as Sugarbush. 

If any flooding happens, it'll be in southern Vermont, especially in the steep slopes of the southern Greens. Again, so far at least, we're not expecting anything widespread. Definitely not a repeat of 2023, as it looks now. Even so, the creeks, small streams and brooks in southern Vermont especially will need to be watched. 

A saving grace is it looks like it will be too cloudy and too cool to allow any torrential thunderstorms to develop. So rainfall rates won't be as likely to produce flash flooding as we would see with a lot of thunderstorms. 

Once again, he Northeast Kingdom looks like it will be more protected from the rains. The White Mountains of New Hampshire might help block some of the Atlantic Ocean moisture that will be flowing into New England. 

THURSDAY

The stupid, slow, meandering storm will begin to depart. We'll still have some showers around, but the risk of heavy rain will diminish.

As noted, the rainfall will be super variable. One town might see more than two or even three inches of rain out of this, while a few towns over will see maybe a half inch to an inch. 

Broad brush, many areas south of Route 4 should get more that two inches of rain between now and Thursday. Some spots in the southern Green Mountains could easily go past three inches, maybe even approach four inches in isolated spots.

Central Vermont in general would receive one to 1.5 inches. Most of northern Vermont should receive an inch or less. Some places in the Northeast Kingdom could easily receive less than a half inch of rain, 

So, some places in Vermont will get too much rain, while other places not enough, It's still very dry in  northern Vermont, so a half inch of rain won't cut it. We'll need more, But at least the rain will cut back a burgeoning fire hazard. Brush fires were reported in recent days in Essex Junction and Fairfax. There probably were a few other small blazes breaking out in other parts of the state. 

Fortunately for the north and unfortunately for soon to be soggy southern Vermont, the weather pattern looks pretty active, though slow moving.  There's another potentially wet system that might come at us later Sunday or Monday. 

A Dry And Warm Vermont Midweek, But Does Another Wet Weekend Loom?

These irises in St. Albans, Vermont are definitely 
enjoying this week's sunshine. 

 Boy, yesterday was another great June day, wasn't it? Sunny and warm, with just some high clouds decorating the skies. 

Tuesday did get off to a chilly start. A lot of places were in the 30s early Monday morning, so there might have been some frost in the coldest hollows of Vermont. 

No biggie, that happens the Green Mountain State often in early June. 

Today, we started off cool again, in the 40s. That was fading fast as temperatures soar to within a few degrees either side of 80 today. I think most valleys should reach at least 80 today os it's definitely warm. 

Thursday. 

Even warmers, as temperature soar well into the 80s. In fact, most of us will be within a few degrees of record highs for the date. For instance, Burlington is going for a high of 89 degrees, and the record high there is 92 degrees. Montpelier expects a high of 86 Thursday, and their record high is 87. 

But it won't be really humid, so it will still be a nice today. 

Friday. 

Similar to Thursday but maybe a degree or two cooler because some clouds should arrive in the afternoon. We should all be in the 80s. The humidity will creep up a little, but still be pretty reasonable. 

Weekend

It's the weekend, so the rule is, it has to rain. 

It's a few days away, so the specifics still have to be worked out. It does look like a slow moving cold front will sink southward into and eventually through Vermont. By Saturday, it could be pretty humid. It doesn't look like the atmosphere will be right for severe thunderstorms, but there could be some heavy downpours. 

By Sunday, it will probably be noticeably cooler under the showery clouds and behind the cold front. But "cooler" won't be the same as what we endured in our chilly May. Instead of 50s and low 60s for highs, we're tentatively looking at low to mid 70s. 

Remember, the forecast is subject to change. If you don't like rainy weekends, you never know. The weather could change it could turn sunnier. But right now, I'm not super optimistic.

The overall weather pattern is still a warm one, so I expect some more days in the 80s next week. 

 

Quick Shot Of Summer To Be Followed By Weekend Chill

Lilacs in the foreground, lilacs in the background on this
sunny, warm late May morning in Vermont. But some
"interesting" weather could arrive this weekend. 

It was definitely a soaker of a Memorial Day weekend in Vermont, with virtually everyone receiving at least three quarters of an inch of rain and most places going over an inch. 

The heaviest rain seemed to be in central Vermont, where two day totals included 1.8 inches in Hinesburg, 1.76 inches in Vergennes 1.71 inches in West Bridgewater and 1.68 inches in Warren. 

Also, the last of the snow melted atop Mount Mansfield over the weekend. There was no measurable snow up there for the first time since October 26.  

That's one of the longest "winters" Mount Mansfield has had. But is the snow really done for the season up there on Vermont's highest peak? Read on to find out. 

The clouds were frustratingly slow to move out yesterday afternoon, especially in  northern Vermont. But they finally did toward evening, giving us a short shot at summer for the next couple of days before annoyingly chilly weather returns. Things could get pretty interesting by this weekend. 

Here's how this will play out

TODAY

A squirt of very warm air has moved in from the west. Forecasters have bumped up expected temperatures today so it's going to actually feel kind of hot. Warmer valley floors should get into the mid-80s. Humidity levels should be reasonable, though, and there will be a nice southwest breeze.

WEDNESDAY

Yesterday, I told you about that Omega block setting up around the nation. This thing will make Vermont turn cool, and very cool by the weekend. Before we get there though, the first of a series of cold fronts will have come through by tomorrow, but it won't make too much of a difference. 

It should still get well into the 70s, with some low 80s in broader valleys, including the Champlain Valley. We'll call the skies partly sunny.

THURSDAY

Upper air weather forecast map for Friday night. Click on
image to make it bigger and easier to see. It shows an
upper level, cold low over us. Those blue lines indicate
that it could be cold enough to snow on mountain peaks.

Here's where we begin to feel the north winds. It'll still be sunny, but highs will only reach the 60s, with some low 70s south. That's actually a couple degrees cooler than average for this time of year. But still very nice. Then the fun begins.

FRIDAY

A pocket of very cold air, which looks like a bowling ball on weather maps, will race down from Hudson Bay and score a strike on us here in Vermont starting during the day Friday. It'll be overhead Friday evening into Saturday. 

Given that this is coming straight from dry northern Canada, you'd think there wouldn't be much weather coming out of this. But the dynamics in this "bowling ball" look like they'll be strong, so lots of showers will break out starting Friday afternoon and into Saturday. 

This is really cold air aloft for this time of year. Early guesses are that the snow level Friday night and Saturday morning could fall to 4,000 feet. So,  yes, it would snow on Mount Mansfield if this forecast is correct.

Even if it does't snow, it will be very cold and wet and windy in the mountains, so you might want to postpone your weekend hiking plans. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Sunday looks chilly and showery, too, but probably not as bad as Saturday. After that, a slow warming trend should take hold next week, but it will probably remain cooler than average for at least the first half of the week. 

Soaking Memorial Day Morning Vermont Rain To Yield To Some Sunshine, Finally! "Omega Block" Looms

National Weather Service radar showed lots of soaking
rain across Vermont as of 8 a.m today. But if you have
Memorial Day plans, the rain should exit by late
morning to yield a partly sunny afternoon

As expected, Sunday was a chilly, rainy mess of a day. There were a couple bright spots in the gloom.

Winds were not as strong as expected near the mountains, so there were no power outages to speak of. In western Vermont, the rain tapered off as expected in the late afternoon, so you could sneak in some outdoor activities. 

Most places around the state had roughly a third of an inch of rain, give or take. That was what was forecast south, but it amounted to a little more than expected north. Good for the gardens, so another bonus there. 

Another heavier slug of rain was moving through Vermont early this morning. This rain seemed to be over-performing a little, too. 

Burlington was closing in on an inch of rain today from this morning's disturbance. Forecasts had called for a half inch. We'll see how the rest of Vermont does once this rain is out of our hair. 

The good news is this morning's rain does not mean we will have another entire gray, overcast day to deal with. 

The rain was beginning to end in western Vermont as of around 8:30 a.m. and should be out of eastern Vermont before noon. This afternoon, skies will turn at least partly sunny, and that should send temperature up into the comfortable low 70s, which is more or less normal for this time of year. 

REST OF WEEK

A schematic from Fox Weather showing what an 
Omega block looks like on a weather map. It features
 a northward bulge in the jet stream featuring warm,
sunny weather sandwiched between cooler
somewhat wetter southward dips in the jet stream.

Something called an Omega block in organizing itself in the atmosphere.  That's when a big northward bulge in the jet stream is flanked on either side by deep dips in said jet stream.  It's called an Omega block because the set up on a weather map resembles the Greek letter Omega. 

They're called a block because these patterns gum up the works so that the general weather stays the same wherever you are in the whole setup. 

Omega blocks are hard to dislodge, so they can last for days or even weeks. 

In this case, the big northward bulge will be in the middle of the U.S and central  Canada. Those areas will  have sunny and warn weather. The "dip people" in the northwest and northeast U.S. will be cooler and more unsettled. 

The Omega block is just starting to set up, so the change toward cooler weather around here will be gradual as the dip sends a series of weak cold fronts southward.  Here's how we think it will play out in Vermont

Tuesday: A summer day. The last one we'll have for awhile. Under sunny skies it should reach the low 80s. Some clouds might filter in during the afternoon, especially north, but that shouldn't make much of a difference in what a nice day it will be.

Wednesday: Still very nice, but winds will have shifted into the northwest, so the cooling will just be beginning. Highs should still make it into the 70s.

Thursday: Cooler  yet under partly sunny skies. Highs in the 60s, so now we're into somewhat chillier than average territory. 

Friday/Weekend: By this time, the coldest air aloft will have arrived. That means the strong end of May sun will heat the ground, which creates rapid updrafts into the cold air above. That means showers. It's a little soon to figure out how many showers and who gets the most of it. Best chances for rain will be north nd mountains. 

Depending on how cloudy it gets, it could get quite chilly down here near the surface. If we manage a fair amount of sun, we could get into the low 60s, still nippy for this time of year. If it's cloudier, we hold in the 50s, which is getting weird for this time of year. 

As noted, Omega blocks don't break down easily once they form. Which means we could be stuck with this cool, unsettled weather perhaps through the first week of June. Stay tuned on that one. 

Last Of Vermont Drought That Began Last August Ends. But Could It Quickly Return?

For the first time since the August 21, 2025. U.S. 
Drought Monitor, there is no drought in 
Vermont as of this week. The yellow area
depicts "abnormally dry," which is sort of
on the cusp of drought. The drought
could return as relatively dry weather
is in the forecast after it rains Sunday. 

 For the first time since the middle of last August, there is no drought in Vermont. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor in their report issued Thursday. downgraded drought in southeast Vermont to an area labeled "abnormally dry." That means conditions are still on the cusp of a drought, but it's still not quite there. 

It looks like the soaking rain we had on May 14-15 made a difference and moistened things up a bit. That left Vermont with no areas of drought in the state since the August 21, 2025 edition of the U.S. Drought Monitor was released. 

The question is whether the drought will come back. After this weekend, what appears to be a fairly long, relatively dry spell will arrive. Depending  upon how long mostly dry weather lasts, at least parts of Vermont could end up in drought trouble again. 

Sure, it's going to rain this weekend, and the most rain will fall in southeast Vermont, where it's most needed. 

But the expected rainfall isn't a tremendous amount. 

Total rainfall late tonight through Monday looks like it might range between a quarter inch north and  three quarters of an inch far south. Central Vermont would get a third to a half inch of the forecast holds.

SPECIFIC FORECAST

I'll get into the specifics of this weekend, and the outlook into next week further explains why drought might come back.

Today

High overcast has spread across all of Vermont's skies.  It'll remain that way all day, but tend to thicken up later in the day. Weak sunshine getting through in the north should allow temperatures to reach 70 degrees or so. Temperatures should hold in the 60s south.

Sunday

NOAA's 8 to 14 day outlook has our area on the dry
side at least through June 5

The day will begin with light rain falling roughly south and west of Interstate 89. The light rain will spread into the Northeast Kingdom by at least noon. 

Since the rain will be steadier and somewhat heavier south, and the clouds will be thicker there, many areas of southern Vermont could stay in the 40s pretty much all day. That's ridiculously cold for this time of year, but there you go.

In the north, since rain will be lighter, and in some areas won't start until later in the morning, highs should only get into the low 50s, which is still damn chilly for this time of year.

 Even worse, breezes will make it feel colder. Those breezes will probably be especially gusty along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

If you had warm weather outdoor plans for Sunday, you are s*it out of luck. I guess we have to pay for the 90 degree weather we had earlier this week. No good weather goes unpunished.

Memorial Day

Well, it can't get worse than Sunday, so there's that. We will actually see a fair amount of improvement, especially as we get later into the afternoon. It looks like some showers will come through in the morning, but they'll tend to taper off in the afternoon to allow some afternoon sunshine, fingers crossed.

If the sunshine develops, highs should get into the low 70s. If it stays cloudy, we'll settle for 60s. Again, that's a LOT better than Sunday's misery.

NEXT WEEK

A brief warm up, then a cooling trend starting Wednesday and continuing at least into next weekend. 

A steep dip in the jet stream will develop just to our east, and a pool of cold air might settle overhead by next weekend, Though a forecast that far out is iffy, so you can still take it with a big grain of salt. 

If the forecasts do pan out at least sort of correctly, Tuesday will bring us nice highs in the low 80s.  Then it cools into the still very pleasant  70s Wednesday, near 70 Thursday, in the 60s Friday and even cooler than that next weekend. In fact, some models make us quite cold, so we'll see how that works out.

This type of weather pattern features a chance of showers, and we'll have that chance daily starting Wednesday and going into the weekend. But these should be very light scattered showers. And they're more likely to hit northern Vermont and not so much in the south. 

Also, I know long range patterns are shaky, but NOAA has the dry weather in all of New England lasting well into the first week of June. Even longer range forecasts into the middle of June do moisten us up a little to near normal precipitation.  

Vermont Monday Morning; Winter In April Continues

A burst of snow shortly after 7 a.m. this morning in
the Burlington area. This is a Vermont Transportation
Agency camera on Williston Road. Note the snow
sticking to the pavement on the bridge but
not on solid ground. I'm sure frozen bridges
surprised many motorists this morning. 

I awoke to another fresh dusting of snow in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday after it snowed most of the day Sunday. There was a dark overcast and it was still snowing a little.  

The National Weather Service issued a special weather statement for early this morning, warning of subfreezing temperatures and snow showers creating slick spots on the roads. A traffic camera shortly after 7 a.m. showed a moderate snow shower in Burlington with ice and snow sticking to the pavement of a bridge on Williston Road.

This morning looks and feels like the typical start of the day in late November, as we gird for a long winter. We obviously don't have a long winter coming, thank gawd, but unfortunately, winter weather is going to seriously subvert spring over the next 24 hours. 

After a cold day today, it'll be frigid tonight, as we've been forecasting for day.s 

It's not just us. Freeze warnings extend from Iowa through the southern Great Lakes and in pretty much all the Mid-Atlantic states. There's going to be a lot of garden damage with this cold wave.

Despite the expected deep chill tonight, there are no freeze warnings in Vermont. The growing season hasn't technically started yet, so the National Weather Service does not do such warnings this time of year. 

Let's get into the details 

TODAY

The snow showers should move out later this morning and some sun should break out, especially in the broader valleys. But frigid air is rocketing in to counteract the  strong April sun, it's going to be a typical mid-March day. That means highs generally in the upper 30s. A little warmer than that in southern valleys. A  little colder than that in northern higher elevations. 

Some places in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks won't even get above freezing today. Pretty impressive for the third week in April. Impressive, but not in a good way. The ever-present gusty northwest winds will add to the chill 

Today's March wind and chilly temperatures set the stage for winter like morning lows tomorrow morning. 

TONIGHT

It still looks like skies will clear and winds will go nearly calm. Those are perfect conditions for super cold morning lows. 

As we've been harping on, garden plants and such have sprouted prematurely due to the recent warm weather, so that's why we're in trouble with the potential for frozen, ruined early season flowers and buds by morning.

There's the slightest bit of encouraging news. Maybe. Some  but not all of the  forecasts I saw this morning are a couple degrees warmer than yesterday's forecast. Those predicted lows are still well within the damage zone for garden plants. But every degree warmer than forecast lessens the damage. 

Also, a minority of forecasts indicate a few clouds might intrude overnight. We want to hope the minority wins, as clouds would help keep temperatures up. 

The current National Weather Service forecast has a low tonight in Burlington at 25 degrees, Rutland at 24, Brattleboro near 23, Montpelier at 21 and St. Johnshury at 19 degrees.

The plant damage will be worse in southern Vermont because they had much warmer weather for a longer period of time last week than in northern parts of the state. So things are really far along down there, and primed to get nipped by the freeze.

The traditional cold hollows are looking ridiculous tonight. Some towns in the Northeast Kingdom could end up in the low teens. Saranac Lake, New York is expected a Tuesday morning low of 11 degrees. 

I guess I'm focusing too much on tonight's cold weather on this because I'm an avid gardener. To most of the Vermont world, this cold spell will be forgotten very soon. Especially since the weather will turn to something very close to normal by the middle and end of the week

REST OF THE WEEK

And after the volatile weather of the past several days, the weather starting tomorrow will be well, boring. Which will honestly be a nice change of pace. . 

Tuesday will still be rather cold for this time of year, with highs in the 40s. They should be in the 50s to around 60 

The weather pattern setting up includes a stalled upper level low in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure near Hudson Bay.  This is normally a recipe for much colder, unsettled, almost wintry conditions for this time of year. 

But the Canadian storm and the cold high pressure in Canada will be so far away from us that temperatures will be near or just a couple degrees cooler than average for late April.  The weather set up will mean storms coming from the west will get broken apart before they get here or get shunted to our south. 

That means if we get any rainfall over the next week it will be quite light, but timing out those light showers at this point is hard to do. 

Long range forecasts are notoriously dicey .But for now, the next chance of substantial rain doesn't come along until around April 29. And yes, if that April 29 storm materializes, it will be rain, not snow.

Quiet weather is expected for the end of the work week
along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures and periods of
cloud cover as a closed upper level low gyres over the Canadian
Maritimes. As an upper level ridge over the Great Lakes breaks down
and the maritime low shifts east, chances for precipitation increase
heading into next weekend, but with low predictability given the
evolving pattern and model spread. Highs for the end of the week
will be in the 50s, reaching into the 60s on the weekend, with lows
30s rising into the 40s.

A Bout Of Icy Weather In Some Parts Of Vermont Then a Brief, Warm Interlude

We can't quite shake winter. Areas in yellow and orange
can expect a glaze of ice tonight before much warmer
air arrives tomorrow, 

 It's another overcast morning in Vermont, with some rain falling far southern sections of the states. 

The wide-ranging temperatures we saw over the past few days have finally evened up for now. 

Pretty much the whole state started today in the low to mid 30s. Early April in Vermont can be a little like November. But at least we're not facing along winter like we would be in November, so we have that optimism. 

Although it was cold enough this morning for snow in southern Vermont, there's warm air aloft, so it's rain. Some sleet might be mixing in at a few spots, but web cams so far show little direct evidence of that. Still, a special weather statement notes the risk of freezing rain this morning, mostly at elevations above 2,000 feet in the southern Greens. 

That warm overhead cold surface have wintry implications for tonight. It's April, but here in Vermont that doesn't necessarily mean wintry weather is over 

A winter weather advisory is for Vermont from the Green Mountains east and from about Springfield north to the Canadian border tonight. 

It's the same problem we've frequently had in late winter and early spring. Warm air is trying to push in, but cold high pressure in Quebec is feeding in low level cold air. The result is the risk of freezing rain

We know there won't be much precipitation of any kinds, and what does fall over and east of the Green Mountains won't be entirely freezing rain. 

However, as usual in these cases, the freezing rain will be spotty. If you're driving anywhere in the winter weather advisory zone overnight and early Friday, you'll encounter patches of ice alternating with above freezing areas, so this will keep you on your toes.

Western Vermont should be too warm for freezing rain.  Some of the overnight showers north and west could actually contain a rumble of thunder or two. That's not exactly a sure bet, but since it's spring, thunder is beginning to become more possible with storm systems. 

WEEKEND

It will warm up really quickly Friday as a warm front blows by, so any freezing rain will stop being an annoyance pretty early in the day. There should be showers around especially during the first half of the day and especially north an west as another storm blows by far to our north. 

The cold front with this storm will be incredibly lame, so not chilly air will be able to work in. Which means Saturday should be fairly mild with highs into the 50s. As the next storm approaches Sunday, the chances of showers will ramp up. It'll stay on the warm-ish side as we once again reach the 50s 

 BEYOND THE WEEKEND:

Unfortunately, we can't sustain spring quite yet. The first half of April is known for its excursions back to winter. 

So, at least the first half of next week will be cold, with highs in the 30s and 40s with subfreezing temperatures overnight. That might keep the sugaring season going on a little longer in parts of the state that haven't had too much warm weather yet. 

And let's face it, the chill early next week won't be anything extreme. We can still have huge snowstorm this time of year, and historically, record cold would mean temperatures in the single numbers to low teens. 

Neither of which will happen next week,  Our world will soon green up regardless of whether we get a little cold air or not.

For Second Time In A Row, Vermont Storm Had Tricks Up Its Sleeves

Another two and a half inches or so of snow
greeted me and our vehicles this morning in
St. Albans, Vermont. The forecast for this
storm has turned out accurate for places
near the Canadian border, but for other 
places in Vermont, well........

This is the time of year when meteorologists might be tempted to give up on the science and flip a coin. 

Early spring is when you tend to get the most surprises and we have some today. As many early Sunday morning risers have already noticed. 

SUNDAY MORNING SURPRISES

Most of Vermont had little or no snow as of 8 a.m. Had forecasters been right the snow would have started two hours earlier. Snow, and some rain ended up arriving after 8 a.m.   

Despite continued forecast to the contrary, I'm doubting many places along and south of Route 2 will see as much snow as had been forecast. But who knows? We seem to be in the season of surprises. 

Meanwhile, a heavier a slug of precipitation was heading into southern Vermont. The further south you go, the warmer it is. Bennington was at 39 degrees as of 8 a.m., so I imagine they'll see mostly rain. It'll be interesting to see at what elevation you have to reach in the southern Green Mountains before it's mostly snow. 

Another big surprise was the dump of snow early this morning near the Canadian border. That snow did arrive in the hours before dawn, as forecast. From what I can tell, areas within 30 miles of the border have gotten at a few inches of snow. There was 2.6 inches of new snow at my place in St Albans as of 9 a.m.  

As of 8 a.m., the snow in St. Albans had turned to a light sleet, with perhaps a few drops of freezing rain mixed in. That's a clue to what we'll deal with this afternoon and evening. A special weather statement from the National Weather Service in South Burlington noted that most of the Champlain Valley was switching over to light freezing rain or drizzle.

When the precipitation gets a little heavier, it goes toward snow. When it gets lighter, freezing drizzle and drizzle. I noticed at around 9 a.m. drizzle changed back to a burst of snow as a zone of heavier precipitation seen on radar moved in. 

As of 9 a.m., temperatures ranged from near freezing to a degree or two above in the Champlain Valley. However, central Vermont is at risk for some freezing drizzle for a few more hours. 

So that annoying icy stuff should just turn into an annoying misty cold spray in your face this afternoon.  

But it will probably go back to freezing drizzle tonight, which will make you have a workout early tomorrow morning scraping a thin but firm coat of ice off at least some of our windshields. It will also make untreated surfaces like driveways and sidewalks icy traps that could have you tumbling to the ground. 

FORECAST BUSTS

I think this storm forecast is turning out to be more of a bust than Friday's. In Friday's storm, forecasts prior to the snow were obviously wrong in the Champlain Valley. But the forecasts for northern Vermont east of the Greens and southern Vermont were actually quite accurate. 

I'm not busting the chops of the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington. They do an awesome job. But, these kinds of things keep happening. I continue to wonder - albeit without evidence so far - that steep National Weather Service cutbacks under the Trump administration, is compromising the data that goes into computerized forecasting. 

Bad data equals bad outcomes.

I'm not the only one who is wondering about this. As we reported recently, Michigan's governor and two U.S. Senators sent out inquiries regarding forecasts ahead of deadly tornadoes in southern Michigan earlier this month. 

 I also have to acknowledge that early spring storms have always been notoriously hard to forecast, so that is definitely one important factor in all of this.  Besides, forecasting for this storm wasn't entirely a bust. We knew yesterday the Northeast Kingdom would probably get the most snow, and that seems to be the case. 

And interestingly, in the northern Champlain Valley up by St. Albans and Highgate, it appears the forecast will come out spot on. 

We also thought southern Vermont valleys would get at least some rain and little snow and that also seems to be happening, 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's a scary prospect to forecast given what I've said above, but those meteorologists working on our behalf need to attempt it. After tonight's patchy freezing drizzle, Monday looks like a somewhat unpleasant day, but something we should be used to in March.

That means mostly cloudy skies, snow showers and a chilling north wind. Highs will only make it into the low 30s at best for most of us. Maybe upper 20s in northern hills, and perhaps upper 30s in southern valleys.

Monday night looks cold, of course, with lows in the teens to low 20s. Tuesday looks like the pick of the week with sunny skies and temperatures near 40. That's near to just a smidge cooler than average for this time of year.

Our next storm looks like it will come along Thursday. I don't dare take a stab of what will happen with Thursday's system just yet. But it will probably be a capricious one, just like Friday's storm and today's weather   

 

Florida Drought Has Water Supplies Drying Up ,Crops Wilting, Fires Burning

All of Florida is in a drought. The red shading represents
extreme drought. The dry weather is intensifying

We often think of Florida as humid and wet. But the Sunshine State has dry seasons, and this one is dangerously parched. 

Water restrictions are being put in place, farmers are fretting about crops and wildfires are harassing the state.

According to U.S. Drought Monitor, all of Florida is in drought. Northern and southern parts of the sate are in extreme drought while central Florida is in moderate to severe drought. 

The drought trend is worsening. Less than half of Florida was in extreme drought back in mid-February. Now, about three quarters of the state is in extreme drought. The drought is said to be the worst in a quarter century. 

Water conservation measures are ramping up. 

WGCU in southwest Florida reported:  

"The Southwest Florida Water Management District, which covers an eclectic area surrounding Tampa Bay, declared a "Modified Phase II 'Severe' Waters Shortage in January. '

That means lawn watering is down to one day a week in the district and only between midnight to 8 am or 6 p.m. to midnight.  

Then it got worse as rainfall kept falling short. 

Per Newsweek: 

"Critically low waters are "prompting Tampa Bay Water to issue an urgent call for conservation to help stretch supplies through the region's driest months. The utility says water from rivers typically provides more than 40 percent of the area's drinking water but ongoing drought had rendered those sources unusable. 

With temperatures rising and spring vegetation demands increasing, officials warm that without aggressive conservation, including limiting showers to find minutes, deeper restrictions could soon follow."

'We're heading into the driest months of the year when it only will get hotter and drier, so now is the time to save and get to those Florida summer rains, ' Tampa Bay Water public communications manager Brandon Moore told Newsweek."

March through May are usually the driest months of the year in Florida. The storm track moves north of Florida in the spring, so rains from passing fronts are less likely to affect the Sunshine State much. Once we get past Memorial Day or so, almost daily summer thunderstorms can help replenish low water. 

Farmers are struggling with the drought as the spring planting season gets under way. In addition to the drought, winter crops were decimated by repeated freezes. 

Wildfires have been harassing Florida, too. Extremely dry conditions are of course fueling them. But dead vegetation from the winter freezes isn't exactly helping. 

Some rain is headed toward Florida over the next week, but it won't be nearly enough to erase the drought. 

Vermont Experienced Coldest February, And Coldest Winter Overall, Since 2015

Henry the Weather Dog makes his way down  his St.
Albans, Vermont driveway, flanked by big snowbanks.
Snowfall hasn't been that much above normal, but 
consistent cold weather has kept snow on the ground
This February was coldest since 2015.

The data is in - at least some of it - and as I'm sure you noticed, Vermont experienced its coldest February in over a decade.  

For the record, the average February temperature in Burlington was 19.5 degrees, or 3.4 degrees colder than average. The last time we had a colder month than this was in January, 2022. The last time we had a colder February was in 2015, but that one was really cold. With an average temperature of 7.6 degrees, February, 2015 was the third coldest on record.

This February wasn't particularly cold by historical standards. By my reckoning, it was the 56th coldest out of the past 139 years in Burlington. 

It just seemed a lot colder because Februaries since 2016 ranged from kinda mild to incredibly warm for the season. Three of the top five warmest Februaries in Burlington came after 2015. 

In Burlington, it got to zero or below on eight occasions, again the most since 2015. That month had 17 such cold mornings. It appears the driving force behind February's chill was overnight lows. 

Burlington's average overnight low in February was 5.1 degrees below the "new normal," which is the mean of data from 1990 to 2020. Remember, those years had already been affected by climate change. Historically, Burlington was colder. 

February was the fourth consecutive cooler than the 1990-2020 average, as measured in2 Burlington. That's the first time since 2018-19 that has happened.  There were actually nine consecutive months that were at least nominally cooler than normal from October, 2018 through June, 2019. 

This was also the first year since 2019 that Lake Champlain had entirely frozen over. 

DATA ISSUES

A bit of a whine here: There is a LOT of missing data in the National Weather Service February climate summaries for various cities in Vermont.  I was able to piece together complete data for Burlington and St. Johnsbury using daily data in February I found from other areas of the NWS web site. 

But I was unable to find complete data for much of the rest of Vermont, making it almost impossible to detect trends in this February's weather across the state.   

I put in an inquiry today to the National Weather Service asking whether this data will be recovered and added to the incomplete monthly summaries now on the NWS website. 

I don't expect them to answer on a Sunday, so I'll keep you posted as to what's up with this. 

The missing data might be related to some problems with National Weather Service automated data transfers. One question I asked in my inquiry is whether this is all related to those awful DOGE cutbacks at the National Weather Service.  I honestly have no idea if the data issue is related to the cutbacks or not, so I'll reserve judgement. 

I noticed the same problem with data back in August.  I looked at the August data today, and it appears almost all the missing data from that month has been added back in. August data is definitely more complete now. 

I'm hoping the February data gets reviewed and the missing data is restored as it was in August. It is Sunday, so maybe they don't have the staff to deal with this issue until the work week.  

This isn't any kind of slap at the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington. They do incredible work.  I just worry that they, and personnel at all the other meteorologists nationwide, no longer have all the resources they should have. 

MORE FEBRUARY INFO

Precipitation in Burlington amounted to an even inch, which is 0.77 inches below normal. I was able to look back 144 years and it turns out this February was the 30th driest on record. Other weather stations in Vermont appear to have been on the dry side as well. But again, the missing data makes it a little hard to truly assess that. 

Once again, Vermont tended to sit out dramatic weather events that were hitting other parts of the United States. In Burlington, February 20 was both the wettest and snowiest day of the month with 5.7 inches of snow which melted down to just a hair  under a half inch. As you can see, those figures don't exactly tell the tale of a big storm. It was just a routine snowfall. 

The lack of thaws this winter has allowed snow to accumulate pretty well, despite snowfall that has not been far from average, except in the mountains, which have had a good snow season.

Most towns in Vermont had at least a foot of snow on the ground on the last day of February. Several places had two feet or more. That kind of snow cover isn't anywhere close to record-breaking, but it's pretty good. Especially for places that need moisture because of the lingering effects of last year's drought. 

In Burlington, through yesterday, there has been snow on the ground for 83 days, the most days like that in at least 22 years. 

MARCH OUTLOOK

March is always a wildcard and this year is no exception. We're starting off bitterly cold, like mid-winter, but temperatures will go above normal later this week.  We don't yet know how far above normal readings will get or how long the warmish weather will last. 

March has the most variable weather of any month. Temperatures during March in Burlington have been as low as 24 below and as high as 84 above. More often than not, we get a March like 2017. The first day of that month was springlike, with a record high of 63 degrees. By the March 14, 2017, the "Pi Day Blizzard" hit. That one is still the second deepest snowstorm on record in Burlington, with 30.4 inches. 

So yeah, don't be surprised if the weather surprised you this month. 

The forecast from NOAA has Vermont leaning toward a warmer than average March, but it's not a slam dunk. NOAA thinks precipitation in the Green Mountain State during March will be near to perhaps edging a bit above normal. 

We will of course, see whether that forecast was accurate in about a month. If we can get the data.  

Vermont January Weather On Paper Was Pretty Average, But February Looking Harsher

An intense snow squall loomed over Lake Champlain, as
seen from Burlington, Vermont on January 22. It was
one of the few instances of weather drama in the state
this January. While the rest of the U.S endured extremes.
Vermont just kind of poked along with near normal weather.

It might not seem like it, given the recent bone-chilling weather in Vermont, but overall, January was right around average both in terms of temperature and precipitation. 

A relatively warm start to the month and a cold finish sort of balanced January's books. 

Compared to most Januaries,  and compared to the weather drama January, 2026 caused elsewhere in the nation, Vermont's version of the month was quiet and shy.  

TEMPERATURES

Burlington's average temperature for January, 2026 was 20.0 degrees, which was just 0.9 degrees cooler than normal.

Out of the past 137 years of accurate records in Burlington, this January was the 55th warmest, or 82nd coolest, however you want to look at it. So pretty much in the middle.

An odd trend I found statewide is that average high temperatures for this January were cooler than normal but overnight lows were close to average. In Burlington, the average high for the month of 26.6 degrees was 2.3 degrees on the chilly side. But the daily low temperature average was 13.5 degrees which was a little more than half a degree on the warm side. 

I found the same trend of chilly high temperatures and near average low temperatures when I looked at Montpelier, Rutland, St. Johnsbury and Woodstock.  

This was the first time since January-March, 2015 in which Burlington had three consecutive colder than average months. 

Temperatures during the month never got on the extreme side, either. The warmest it got in Burlington was 49 degrees. The warmest it's ever been in January is 66 degrees, in 1995. Likewise, Burlington's low temperature for the month was 8 below. The coldest it's ever been in January is 30 below, in 1957.

PRECIPITATION

Rain and melted snow were pretty average during January in Vermont, too. Burlington had 2.19 inches of precipitation, which was just 0.06 inches above average. I was able to find 144 consecutive years of reliable January precipitation data for Burlington. January, 2026 was the 45th wettest or 99th driest, depending on how you want to loo at it. Again, nothing scary in that department either. 

Snowfall was near to above normal, riding mostly on the large snowstorm on January 25-26 that dumped around 20 inches of snow in some parts of the state. This was part of a massive, destructive winter storm that basically trashed most of the southern and eastern parts of the U.S.

True to form, though, Vermont's version of the storm was just a pretty, fluffy, happy winter snow day. The only other semi-dramatic day came on the 22nd, when there were some pretty intense, but brief snow squalls around the state. 

It was, as usual for winter, a windy month, especially in the Champlain Valley. Fourteen days had wind gusts at or above 30 mph in Burlington. Winds reached 50 mph on January 9. 

OUTLOOK

January is usually the coldest month of the year, but in 2026, February has a very strong chance of being the chilliest month of the winter. 

The cold weather pattern that took hold in the final week or so of January looks like it's going to stubbornly hang on for quite awhile. Who knows? Maybe all month.   

The weather pattern that has set up for February tends to be very dry, too. We call it a "continental month" since winters smack dab in the middle of North American tend to be very cold and very dry. 

The forecasts are pretty unanimous that depending on the day, it'll be either sort of cold or really cold through the middle of February. 

There's a chance of some sort of pattern change later in the month, but we don't know if or how that's going to arrange itself. If this cold pattern lasts all of February, though, we have an excellent chance of seeing one of the driest Februarys on record. 

The driest February on record in Burlington was in 1978 with just 0.21 inches of precipitation. That was a classic "continental month" as well, as it still ranks as the fourth coldest February on record in Burlington, with an average temperature of 9.5 degrees.

If any of you asking weather February, 1978 was when New England's Blizzard of '78 happened, it did. However that blizzard largely missed northwest parts of the Green Mountain State. To really geek out, all but 0.01 inches of February, 1978's meager precipitation came on Feb 6-8, when the blizzard was passing by to the southeast of Burlington. 

Extreme Cold, Winter Storm Gathering Force In U.S.; Vermont Involved Too

The National Weather Service web site home page
has most of the eastern United States in blue,
indicating extreme cold alerts or winter storm
watches. That patch of pink in Oklahoma is
an upgrade to a winter storm warning. Much
of this map will turn that pink or purple
in the coming days. That will indicate winter storm
or ice storm warnings  

 If you looked at the map on the home page of the National Weather Service website this morning, you would have noticed almost everything east of the Rockies is colored blue. 

All that blue indicates the dangerous weather much of the nation is facing starting today and going through the weekend. 

Extreme cold watches and warnings, and winter storm watches are all depicted in varying shades of blue. 

This will be a deadly, very expensive winter storm. 

Note: For my Vermont readers, I have what's in store further down in this post. But first, the national situation

INTENSE COLD, SNOW, ICE

Texas, North Carolina and South Carolina have declared states of emergency already because of the storm. I'm betting other states will follow suit. 

Arguably the scariest part of this batch of winter weather is the huge area that are at risk for destructive freezing rain. The band of ice would extend from central and northern Texas, through the northern Gulf States, the mid-Misssissipi Valley, the southern Appalachians and on into the Carolinas and Virginia.

At least some of these areas will have enough ice to cave in countless trees and power lines. Electricity might be out for days. Roads might also be blocked for days, too. It won't warm up immediately after the storm, so the ice will continue to wreak havoc even after skies clear. 

In some areas that see freezing rain, temperatures could be as low as the upper teens, meaning a much greater share of the rain would freeze than you would  normally see in an ice storm. 

North of all that ice, a broad band of heavy snow is expected from the southern and central Plains through a large are of the Midwest and into the Northeast.  

Exactly where the worst of the snow and ice is still TBA, but we do know that at least tens of millions of people will have one of the worst, if not the worst winter storm they experienced in years.

I'm seeing news footage this morning of people clearing supermarket shelves of food and other supplies ahead of the storm. If you have travel plans this weekend, good luck! I'm sure flights throughout most of the eastern two thirds of the U.S. will be a mess. Major airlines are already waiving rebooking fees. 

I would also suggest picking another time for a road trip across, for instance, Arkansas. Or dozens of other states for that matter. 

Places like Home Depot and Lowes are reporting runs on portable generators. Electric utilities have told customers to prepare for multi-day power outages. 

In much the winter storm zone and north of it, extreme cold warnings, watches and advisories extend from the Plains to northern New England. 

The most intense cold will be up in North Dakota and northern Minnesota, where wind chills will be near 50 below. A lot of those places will have three consecutive nights in the 20s and 30s below. 

You probably noticed that those affected by the Arctic blast are under extreme cold warnings and watches. That might seem odd to people who are more familiar with wind chill warnings and watches.

The National Weather Service abandoned wind chill alerts in 2024 to streamline warnings and make them more clear. After all, it can be dangerously cold outside with or without wind. There had been a misconception among the public that extreme cold is dangerous only if there's wind. 

Extreme cold watches and warnings make it clear that it's the temperature that makes it dangerous. Extreme cold warnings mention wind chills if the gusts make the "real feel" of the air outside feel horrible. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The forecasts have been trending north with the snow with t

A brief burst of snow dusted the evergreens around
my house in St. Albans, Vermont this morning. 
Expects more snow showers today and tomorrow
before the Arctic blast arrives later tomorrow,
We might get part of that big winter
storm later Sunday and Monday, too.

his vast winter storm, so expect at least a few inches of snow later Sunday and Monday in parts of, or maybe all of Vermont.  More on that in a bit, but we've got other interesting weather to get to first. 

There's a LOT to talk about, so let's dive in! 

We've still got a couple cold fronts to get through today and tomorrow, which means snow showers. We still think we'll see some snow squalls in the mix here and there, so be ready for some changeable road conditions and sudden shifts in visibility. 

The snow showers have already started this morning. A pretty heavy but brief burst of snow came through my perch in St. Albans a little before 8:30 a.m. 

I'll be hard to tell in advance when and where these snow bursts show up, so stay on your toes! Total accumulation through all this will be mostly an inch or less, with locally slightly higher amounts. 

Today will be the last mild day we see for awhile, ,as temperatures head into the 30s. The colder air behind this first front isn't all that cold. It'll get into the teens tonight and up to near 20 or so tomorrow morning or early afternoon. 

But then the second front with its snow showers and squalls introduce us into the Arctic hell. The extreme cold watch for all but a sliver of southeastern Vermont will probably turn into a warning later today. 

Friday night will be brutal as temperatures fall through the single numbers and then below zero. Winds will be gusty fro the northwest.  Temperatures still look like they'll bottom out in the upper single numbers to teens below zero by Saturday morning. Highs will be within a few degrees either side of zero. Yuck!

That big winter storm might prevent temperatures from dropping as low as they otherwise could Saturday night. The coldest temperatures hit on calm, clear nights. High clouds billowing far north and east of the storm could come in overnight, halting the temperature plunge.

The clouds are literally cold comfort though. Temperatures overnight and into Sunday morning will drop into the teens below zero, with a few spots in the 20s below. It'll be the coldest night at least since February, 2023 or perhaps before then.

Those high clouds are a harbinger of what to me is a bit of a surprise. It now looks like we could get some snow out of that immense winter storm. 

Once the storm is near the East Coast, it's expected to strengthen more than earlier forecasts indicated It's also now projected to head a little further north than earlier guesses.

At this point, the storm is still wanting to go south of New England. That would normally mean we'd get little if any snow.  But the area of snow north of this thing is going to be much wider than a normal storm. 

It now looks like everyone in Vermont will get some snow out of this Sunday night and Monday. But for now, anyway, the heaviest snow looks like it would stay to our south. 

In southern Vermont, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington gives about an  80 percent chance of at least two inches of snow, a roughly 60 percent chance of six inches and perhaps just a 20 or 30 percent chance of a foot of snow.

In northern Vermont, the odds are for about a 65 chance of two inches and a 40 percent of six inches of snow. There's just a 10 to 20 percent chance of a foot up north.

The storm is still far away from New England, so projections could easily change one way or another. 

Most of the time, when it snows around here, temperatures are somewhere in the 20s to around 30. This go around, temperatures will be in the single numbers to low teens while it's snowing. So early guesses are this will be a very powdery feathery snow. 

Although it won't be brutally cold after the storm goes by, it will still be much colder than normal. Early guesses have daily high temperatures for all of next week in the teens, with lows within a few degrees either side of zero. All that is a good 10 degrees colder than normal for this time of year.  

Rain To Snow In Vermont Late Tonight/Tomorrow; Second Half Of January Looks REALLY Rough

National Weather Service snowfall prediction map for
late tonight and tomorrow. This is another big bust
potential map, especially in Vermont. We could end
up getting much more or much less snow than
depicted here. It depends on how quickly rain
will turn to snow early tomorrow, 

Today will pretty much be the last day of mild weather before winter returns to Vermont with a vengeance. 

We've had a series of warm days, so, at least as measured in Burlington, January so far is running about three degrees warmer than average. 

That's about to change soon.

It'll be cloudy and mild ahead of a cold front today, with highs once again  in the 30s to low 40s. Then trouble begins to arrive tonight. 

That's in the form of a wave of low pressure forming on the front.  We knew yesterday this would be the case. Now, it seems the storm will be going just a little further west than depicted in yesterday's forecast. 

That means northern New York should get most of the snow out of this. Current forecasts have folks across the pond getting three to 6.5 inches of snow.

The cold air will flood into Vermont as dawn breaks, changing our rain to snow. Meteorologists are struggling with how much snow Vermont will see out of this, as different computer models this morning are still giving highly different results.  

That's especially true in northwestern Vermont, where amounts really could range from one to eight inches. It'll probably be closer to two or three inches. But stay tuned, because this forecast could change a lot. 

By the time you get to southeastern Vermont, you likely won't see much snow out of this. Maybe an inch if you're lucky. 

No matter how much snow we get, tomorrow morning's drive time looks like a real mess. The temperature will crash and fast Water will be freezing on roads and sidewalks and snow will fall on top of that. Give yourself plenty of time to get to work or school tomorrow, or try to work from home. 

Temperatures will fall through the 20s and teens all day and gusty winds will make things feel worse. The snow should dwindle to snow showers during the day. By Friday morning, temperatures should be within a few degrees either side of zero for most of us. 

This will be the opening salvo of a pretty intense winter siege for us in Vermont, and for many people in the Upper Midwest, Northeast and southeast Canada. 

After a chilly Friday, we'll have one more mild day before the forces of the Arctic take over.   

FRIGID PATTERN

A schematic of the jet stream and air flow expected next
week. Click on the image to make it bigger and
easier to see. Follow the dark green lines from
near the North Pole southward through Canada 
and into the Great Lakes and Northeast. 
That shows how the air will be moving next
week. Since the air is coming from the North
Pole, be prepared to really bundle up. 

The overall weather pattern for the second half of January reminds me of the blockbuster winters of the 1970s.  

That pattern features a huge northward bulge in the jet stream near western North America and a sharp southward dip in the eastern half of the continent. 

Amid all this, the polar vortex, the whirl of frigid air that roams the Arctic all winter, is positioned closer to us than normal. In this case, roughly near Hudson Bay instead of way up by the North Pole.

The polar vortex is settling in near Hudson Bay because another Greenland block is shoving it there. The Greenland block, as you might recall from a previous post, is unusual high pressure and warm air (well, warm for them) around Greenland. 

In some winters, this happens repeatedly and is hard to dislodge. Apparently, this is one of those winters. 

Going forward, we'll have to deal with several blasts of frigid air, directly from the North Pole. There might be brief breaks of somewhat more reasonable air lasting a day or two before new Arctic cold fronts plunge through, bringing us back to Yukon style winter weather. 

It's hard to tell in advance precisely how cold this pattern will get for us, but it has the potential to be the most intense cold at least since the icy weather in February, 2015 or the rough winter of 2013-14. The worst case but possible scenario would be the coldest weather since the very frigid winters of 1993 and 1994.

This is definitely a shivery pattern for us, but will it be good for snow lovers?

The answer is mixed.

With each cold front coming down from the northern reaches of Canada, we'll see bouts of light snow and flurries. In other words, not much snow. 

If any of these northern cold fronts aligns with a storm way down near the Gulf of Mexico - this is called phasing - them we could see some blockbuster storms.  With phasing, very wet southern storms cooperate with cold, dry northern storms to produce systems that can drop a lot of snow.  

The best chance of this happening might be later in the month, when some forecasts have the center of the "dip" in the jet stream move slightly westward. That would give room for storms to race up the East Coast.

Only time will tell if that will actually come to pass.

As far as how long this upcoming frigid pattern will last, it's anybody's guess. From what I can tell, this could go into February. 

Impressive Lake Champlain Effect Snowstorm In Small Area Sunday, More Active Weather Area-Wide This Week

National Weather Service snow prediction map taking us
through a small 1 to 3 inch snowfall later today combined
with a slightly larger but not huge storm Tuesday night.
Some mix is possible toward the end of the
second storm late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 
Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to read.

A surprise snowstorm blanketed a small area near the southern end of Lake Champlain Sunday. 

It was one of the most impressive lake effect snowfalls off of Lake Champlain I've ever seen.

Most of the snow fell on the New York side of the lake, but some of it clipped the immediate lakeshore on the Vermont side.

Snowfall totals included 9 inches in Port Henry, New York, 7 inches in Willsboro and Crown Point, and 6 inches in Mineville and Moriah Center, New York and Chimney Point in West Addison, Vermont. 

Light winds, just east of due north, flowed down the length of Lake Champlain all day. The direction of the wind aimed the snow at the southern end of the lake on the New York side, but also clipped the point of land that juts into the lake at West Addison, Vermont.

Since the winds weren't very strong, they had plenty of time to gather moisture off unfrozen sections of the lake.  The lake narrows as you head south and hills on either side of the lake become closer together. That, and some light west winds coming over the Adirondacks, helped the air flow converge, or squeeze together. 

When that happens, the air has nowhere to go but up. Rising air cools, and that makes the moisture in the air condense. That condensed moisture fell as snow.  It was a fluffy stuff, so it was able to accumulate pretty deeply. 

WHAT'S NEXT

The big picture is all of us, not just a small piece of the southern Champlain Valley are going to get some snow this week. The bad news is we're going to get some other stuff, too. We have three or four quick storms to talk about. None of them are huge, but each will affect your life to some degree. 

Storm #1

After a morning that brought us temperatures near or below for, it's clouding up pretty fast. A tiny storm is going to go right over the top of us this afternoon and night. Since the system is so small, this will be a quickie. It'll start snowing by around mid afternoon and finish up before midnight.  I'm calling this "Storm #1 but that's being generous. It's a minor thing. 

Most of us should get between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of snow, with maybe a little less in the Northeast Kingdom, where the air might be a little drier. It'll stay cold with this little event. High temperatures much like yesterday, will stay in the teens. 

Today's snow, although not amounting to much, should be enough to make the drive home from work this afternoon and evening a little slick and annoying. Plan on taking it slow. 

Tomorrow, ahead of the next storm, will feel like a glorious heat wave. Highs should soar all the way to near 30, which is close to normal for this time of year. 

The next storm hits tomorrow night. It will be a little bigger than today's squirt of snow, but it won't be enormous. 

It'll come out of the southeastern Great Lakes tomorrow evening and head toward northern Vermont, where it will begin to fade. A new storm will form near Maine and become the predominate one. 

How and when this little transfer of power from the original storm to the new one in Maine will determine how much of this will be snow and how much will be a mix.

As it stands now, the transfer will keep us in Vermont with mostly snow. Especially north. Current projections have us getting two to six inches of snow, with some mixed precipitation toward the end of the storm late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 

Southern Vermont should get less snow, maybe one to two inches out of this storm, and more freezing rain and sleet than the north. This will mess up the roads, but be not nearly enough to wreck trees and power lines like the last bout of freezing rain on December 29 did.

#Storms #3 and #4

For some of us, our well advertised January thaw wills start marginally on Wednesday, as highs get into the mid 30s. Thursday will be mild and quiet, with highs in the 35 to 42 degree range. 

Then we get the next system. I'm calling this batch Storm #3 and Storm #4 because current projections have it coming in two waves. At least some computer models have one storm going by to our west Friday and another close on its heels Saturday. 

Since both storms will go by to our west, these storms will be almost exclusively rain. At this point, I don't think either of these systems will produce enough rain and thawing to create a flood concern. But we'll keep an eye on these as they get closer nevertheless. 

Starting next Sunday night and Monday , we will get back to our regularly scheduled winter. At first, the  the cold won't be too intense. It'll basically be about average early next week. But signs point to gradually deepening cold as we head further into the month.  

Latest Vermont Snowfall Ends, Except In Northern Green Mountains

Heavy snow falling along Route 242 in Westfield
not far From Jay Peak around 8 a.m. today. More than
a foot of snow will fall in that area today, but 
most areas in Vermont will see very little 
snow today. But it will be wintry. 

The snow is pretty deep for this time of year in Vermont, thanks to a remarkably early winter. 

Both the cold and the snow are pretty impressive. Right now, there's about 10 inches of snow on the ground here in St. Albans.  

So far, some of the highest snow totals I've found from yesterday are 8.7 inches in a higher elevation in Waterbury, 7.5 inches in Maidstone, and 6.5 inches in Ludlow and Albany (that's Vermont, not New York).

It actually got warm last night, as Burlington reached 36 degrees around and just after midnight. That's the first time we've had a normal high temperature since November 27. It's been colder than average since then. 

TODAY

That 36 will be the high temperature for today. We've got a wintry day in store, once again. For the rest of your Thursday, the temperature will slowly fall through the 20s. Northwest winds will increase, with gusts for many of us going up over 30 mph. Which means the wind chill will get worse, too. 

Some areas, especially the southern Champlain Valley might see some breaks of sun today, but it won't be an impressively sunny day for most of us. The lower Connecticut Valley in southeast Vermont will probably be rather sunny, so head down there if your Seasonal Affective Disorder is really acting up. 

It won't be a nice day, if you'll allow me to be Captain Obvious once again. 

For most of us, we're pretty much done with the snow.  There will be some flurries and snow showers around, and some blowing snow. A few places in northern and central Vermont could get an inch or so of snow.  Which means roads conditions will be fair to middlin,' as they say. 

Not much snow in Vermont today, except a patch of 6 to as
much as 18 inches in the northern Green Mountains

The exception is the northern Green Mountains. The upslope snows will keep going. From about Sugarbush north to Stowe and Smugglers' Notch, we're probably talking four to as much as eight inches. 

But the real story is up by Jay Peak, once again. They always get a lot of snow, but this year is insane. And today will remain part of that insanity. 

The upslope snow near the Canadian border will be so persistent that the National Weather Service in South Burlington is saying that between shortly after midnight this morning (a few hours ago as of this writing) and Friday morning, Jay Peak could see 18 inches of new snow. 

That's on top of the eight inches or so they received Wednesday. True, the snow coming down on Jay Peak today is super fluffy and will compact down a lot. But still!  

A winter weather advisory is up for the northern Green Mountains, as you might imagine. Right around Jay Peak, you'll see some near blizzard conditions with all that snow and wind. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We've got a few more days of wintery weather to look forward to.  Tomorrow will be a little warmer as south winds temporarily take hold. Some of the warmer towns will get to near 30 degrees. 

The six to 10 day outlook from NOAA covering
the days between December 16 and 20 has warmer
air spreading across the U.S. We in Vermont
will stay near the edge of the warm air
so we'll have probably flip-flopping 
conditions between cold and mild. 

Another well-advertised shot of cold air is due to come in Sunday, with another spate of snow showers, especially in the mountains.  

Highs in the 20s on Sunday will drop to the teens on Monday. It looks like clouds and wind might prevent temperatures from going way below zero like they did on Tuesday morning. 

Then - here's something interesting - we have a huge shift in the weather pattern coming up. 

Instead of intrusions of frigid air from Canada, a strong west-to-east jet stream will flood most of the Lower 48 with warmer air starting toward the middle and end of next week. 

It looks like we'll be near the northern fringe of that balmy air, with frigid air lurking not far to our north in Canada. 

That arrangement pattern probably means we'll flip flop pretty quickly and often between fairly mild days and chilly ones. The rapid fire parade of small to mid-sized storms will probably continue, but we'll have to deal with mixed precipitation, ice and even rain from time to time, in addition to modest snowfalls. 

It's way too early to tease out exactly how these storms will affect us starting toward the end of next week. But expect surprises, and occasional breaks from the midwinter cold we've had to deal with.