Weird Rain Band Hit Parts Of Vermont Saturday, Showery Weather To Continue Until Possible Midweek Break

Rain to the north from a persistent rain band. This is
looking north along Interstate 89 in Colchester, VT

 Saturday was an odd weather day in at least parts of Vermont. We knew there would be showers and rumbles of thunder around as disturbances moved down into the Green Mountain State from Quebec. 

But one band of rain, only maybe 20 miles wide most of the time, enter Vermont's northwest corner and went southeastward into central Vermont. 

 And it stayed there from late morning until well into the evening.  Had this occurred in a very warm, very humid atmosphere, there probably would have been a terrible flash flood within that band.

Luckily, the airmass couldn't hold that much water, so the rain was light, with bursts of moderate rain and very quick downpours. The rainfall tended to get lighter the further south and east the rain band went. 

But still, it was strange. Here in St. Albans, we were right in the path of this narrow band, and we received  1.21 inches of rain from late morning until well into the evening. During that time, Burlington, just 30 miles to the south, got nothing. And the rain in St. Albans was constant.  It was reduced to a sprinkle at times, but at other times it came down at a brisk pace. 

National Weather Service radar from about 5:30 p.m. 
Saturday. It shows a persistent, nearly stationary rain 
band extending from well northwest of Montreal in 
Quebec southeastward through Vermont into 
New Hampshire. Though the band weakened in
eastern Vermont and New Hampahire. 

Rainfall from this band extended up into Quebec, where amounts were reported to be heavier than in Vermont. 

I'm not sure why that band didn't move. It might have been a weird deformation zone, which is an area on the outskirts of a storm in which a band of heavy precipitation sets up. But the storm itself was way up in the Canadian Maritimes, so that doesn't make much sense.  

Anyway, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans has now collected. 3.26 inches of rain since Thursday morning. It's pretty sodden out there. 

And more rain is in the forecast. For all of Vermont, not just St. Albans, of course!

TODAY

We're in for the same type of weather we had on Saturday, though perhaps minus the stalled rain band. 

There might not be quite as many showers and storms as yesterday, but many of us, especially central and north, will get wet today. Rainfall amounts should be in the tenth to a quarter inch range. Southern Vermont should see less than a tenth of an inch. 

Some places will have heavier showers or garden variety thunderstorms, and may get hit repeatedly. Those few and far between spots could get up to an inch of rain. But that will be the exception. 

Highs today in the valleys should hit the low 70s again, with a few mid 70s in banana belt places like the southern Champlain valley and the valleys of far southern Vermont. 

MONDAY

Southernmost Vermont has been missing out on most of the heavy rain, and they could actually use a good dousing. They might be in luck Monday afternoon and evening. 

A small, but very wet storm system is forecast to move about Indiana tonight to somewhere near New York City by Tuesday night. But there are still some questions about its eventual path. If it goes further south than expected, all but areas of Vermont pretty close to the Massachusetts border will miss out on most of the rain. 

If it goes a little further north than expected, a substantial rain could make it as far north as Route 2. 

As it stands now, areas south of Route 4 could get 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain out of this from Monday afternoon to early Tuesday morning. Central Vermont could get a quarter to a half inch. Soggy areas near the Canadian border might get a break and see little rain out of this. 

These amounts are subject to change depending on how forecasts get updated.

TUEDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

This will sound to many like good new: The middle of the upcoming week looks mostly dry in Vermont.  Fingers crossed.

The skies should clear Tuesday for a relatively sunny afternoon. Wednesday looks sunny, too. Some clouds and showers might return later in the day. 

The air should be summery without being hot. Highs will be in the 75 to 83 degree range all three days, depending mostly on elevation. Lows will be in the comfortable 50s to low 60s. 

More showers and maybe thunderstorms look like they'll return late in the week and next weekend, but it's too soon to say whether the rain will be heavy and widespread, or more scattered and light.  

Surprisingly Heavy Vermont Rainfall Raising Some Flood Concerns.

Just a few hours after the main band of strong 
thunderstorms departed on Thursday, the first in
a series of rain showers arrived that evening, as
seen here in St Albans. Several rounds of showers,
some heavy have come through since then. More
showers and possible downpours are
due today and Sunday.

An odd risk of some scattered flooding as developed in northern Vermont despite cool northwest winds that usually prevent that sort of thing. 

That big storm we had Thursday, the one that gave Vermont two tornadoes and other damaging wind storms, is  now lumbering around eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritime provinces. 

 The storm is sending bands of showers southeastward out of the Canadian Maritimes into mostly northern and central Vermont. 

Rain has been maldistributed in Vermont most of this month anyway. Northern Vermont, especially the Northeast Kingdom, has been getting lots of rain. The southeast corner of Vermont, which was still facing lingering dryness from last year's drought, has not gotten all that much rain at all.

During Thursday's storm, the Northeast Kingdom was drowned again. Several towns in north central and Northeast Vermont received more than two inches of rain from Thursday's storms. Meanwhile, the southeast corner of the state had some damaging thunderstorms Thursday, but they were quick hitters that only deposited a third to a half inch of rain. 

Yesterday, bands of rain, some of it heavy, sank slowly southward through the northern half of Vermont. Each individual shower in the band moved fast, but the showers were all following one another, like boxcars on a freight train, so surprisingly heavy rains fell. Southern Vermont got nothing.

Through midnight last night, Burlington has already received 4.3 inches of rain so far this month. The normal for the entire month of June is 4.26 inches, so we're already above normal for June. More rain fell early today. Some of it was heavy. 

Around 1:30 a.m. today, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington issued a flood warning  for much of Chittenden County, parts of Addison County, and the western slopes of the Green Mountains roughly between the Middlebury Snow Bowl an Smuggler's Notch due to a heavy period of overnight rain. 

The warning has since expired, and I haven't seen any flood reports yet, but I image some steep gravel roads or driveways might have suffered some damage.  

Usually, the amount of rain that falls in this type of weather situation with a west to northwest wind is quite light. But the disturbance rotating around the backside of that storm and into northern New England are pretty dynamic and energetic, and able to produce some locally heavy rains. 

TODAY

An interesting satellite photo shows a band of
heavy showers across north central Vermont Friday
while the south remained mostly clear. Those
showers produced locally heavy rain. 

This state of affairs will continue today. One area of showers was coming through northern Vermont as of 7:30 this morning. 

It contained brief downpours but the area of rain wasn't big or intense enough to set off any flooding. But it kept wetting the soils and helping rivers stay elevated. 

If we get more downpours today, I don't expect any serious river flooding, but there could be some local washouts, erosion things like that. 

The larger rivers are running high, which should make you think twice about taking a kayaking trip along those waterways. 

More disturbances will rotate through today. It'll be rather cloudy, especially north, but enough sun will get through to increase the instability in the air. This will create numerous showers and garden variety thunderstorms, but some of them might contain heavy rain. 

In general northern Vermont will see between a third and three quarters of an inch of rain today. But places in the mountainous terrain mostly north of Route 2 could see locally more than that, which could trigger isolated instances of flash flooding today. 

Highs will only be in the upper 60s and low 70s under the clouds and showers.

SUNDAY

Same old, same old. More rounds of showers and storms, mostly central and north. Highs will be a little warmer with temperatures getting into the 70s for most places. It'll still be a few degrees cooler than average. 

Once again, some showers or storms could produce some downpours in the northern mountains, so isolated flash flooding is possible again. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't worry about flash flooding tomorrow, but the ground is so saturated in the north that it could happen. Like today, if any flooding happens, it will be very localized. This weekend will be no means be a replay of the horrible summer floods in 2023 and 2024.

Rainfall this morning through Sunday evening will range from two inches or a little more in a couple spots in northern Vermont to less than a tenth of an inch near the Massachusetts border. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor lists an area of Vermont south and east of a line from Bennington to roughly White River Junction as abnormally dry, so the rain misses down there are annoying. But there's hope.

MONDAY

A small, fast moving but very wet little storm is forecast to scoot by to the south of Vermont on Monday. There's still some questions about how far north its heavy rain will extend. But chances are far southern Vermont could receive a really good soaking out of this. 

If everything works out right, Bennington and Windham counties could receive a couple inches of rain ou of this little storm. 

Amounts will taper off the further north you go.  This could change, but central Vermont could get moderate amounts of rain out of Monday's system. The sopping wet north would only get a little bit of rain. Which is great because that scenario would mean no risk of additional flooding. 

Long range forecasts can never be trusted, but predictions through the end of the month in indicate a slow warming trend and frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms through June 30 

TWO Tornadoes Struck Vermont On Thursday. The National Weather Service Gives Us The Details

Items scattered after yesterday's tornado
in Woodstock, Vermont. Two tornadoes
touched down in the state Thursday. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington broke some news this afternoon: There were actually two tornadoes in Vermont Thursday. 

We already knew about the one that hit the western part of Woodstock, Vermont. But it turns out another tornado hit an area near and along York Hill Road in the Addison County town of Lincoln. 

The Addison County tornado doesn't come as a complete surprise. Meteorologists tracked a rotating thunderstorm that felled trees in the Middlebury are, though those winds are not believed to be tornadic. The rotation seemed to intensity near Bristol which is very close to Lincoln, so it's not entirely surprising there was a tornado there. 

WOODSTOCK

The tornado in Woodstock was a high end EF-1 tornado with top winds of 100 mph, according to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. I traveled 1.34 miles along Route 4, mostly in the valley. It had a maximum width of 550 yards and was on the ground for just three minutes.

As we've seen in photographs and video, the tornado felled or snapped a large number of trees and caused roof damage and damage to solar panels. 

LINCOLN

The Lincoln tornado was actually a little stronger than the one in Woodstock with top winds of 105 mph. Again, that's a high-end EF-1 tornado

But the Lincoln tornado had a much shorter path and a shorter life. It only traveled 0.31 miles and had a path 200 yards wide. This tornado blew through an area of forest before sputtering out in a ravine. 

I suppose it's possible other tornadoes touched down in Vermont Thursday but I'm not aware of any investigations or areas that seem like they were obviously hit by a twister. There was a lot of wind damage, especially in southeast Vermont. 

We know it's unusual to have a tornado in Vermont. It's really odd to have two on the same day, or even the same year. There was another tornado in Williamstown on April 16, so we're up to the three in a year,

That doesn't break any records for the most Vermont twisters in a single year.

  The year 1962 seems to be the biggest twister year in Vermont. Three  tornadoes touched down across northern Vermont on May 20 that year. 

Two unusual morning tornadoes hit Windsor County on July 9, 1962. more tornadoes touched down on July 9, 1962. One of them traveled 16 miles between Chester and Weathersfield, according to the Vermont Weather Book. Another traveled five miles near Springfield, Vermont, then it crossed into New Hampshire and traveled three more miles. 

That said, there is a tendency for tornadoes to be moving east and north out of the Great Plains tornado alley, likely due to climate change. The Northeast has seen an increased number of twisters in recent years and Vermont might be seeing a piece of that. 

Of course, another factor is that some Vermont tornadoes in the past might have been missed. Everybody has smart phones. Everybody is on social media. New of weird storm damage spreads fast nowadays. Some of those reports result in investigations and confirmed tornadoes. 

The National Weather Service will likely release a much more detailed analysis of the tornadoes and the other instances of severe weather Vermont saw on Thursday. That analysis should be out within a few weeks. 

 

Likely Woodstock, Vermont Tornado To Be Investigated Today, More Inclement, But Not Violent Weather Due

Trees ripped apart on a Woodstock, Vermont hillside
after a likely tornado hit on Thursday. 
Photo from WCAX via Facebook

 Thanks to the fact that everyone has a camera and local TV stations are pretty aggressive when it comes to covering rare, violent weather in Vermont, we're now pretty confident that whatever hit Woodstock, Vermont yesterday was probably a tornado. 

Drone video from Henry's Weather Service shows trees snapped off halfway up, and many other trees felled in varying directions, which are telltale signs of a tornado. 

Video obtained from Tiffany LaRocque taken from inside Mountain Creamery in Woodstock shows intense winds and rain on the edge of the tornado. Trees were falling and the parking lot was full of vehicles as people traveling along Route 4 took refuge there as driving conditions became impossible. 

About 100 people were affected by the probably tornado on the western side of town, WPTZ reports. Thankfully, we have no reports of injuries, which is pleasantly surprising, given how much traffic there usually is on Route 4 where the probably tornado crossed. 

The tornado missed the historic central village of Woodstock, which is a world-renowned tourist hub. Initial reports indicate only minor tree damage in the village center. 

Reports are that National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington will head to Woodstock, probably today, to confirm whether this was a tornado.  If that analysis happens, we'll learn how strong the tornado was and how long and wide the path was.

Judging from the drone video, the path of the tornado looked a little longer than most Vermont tornadoes. Twisters in the Green Mountain State tend to touch down and lift almost immediately. 

I'm not sure on the strength of the tornado, but judging from photos and that drone video, I'd say it was an EF-1, which would mean winds of 86 to 110 mph. 

Once the National Weather Service offers a report on the Woodstock storm, I'll write up a new post with the updates.

Heading east from Woodstock, there was additional severe damage. In Quechee, Vermont, a row of large willow trees on a golf course fell. They all went down in the same direction, suggesting straight line wind damage. 

There was also extensive damage in Hartford, Vermont, where a lot of trees fell. 

Nearly 4,000 Vermont homes and businesses were still without power this morning, mostly in southeastern Vermont. Londonderry had 1,100 of those outages, suggesting something nasty rolled through that town yesterday. 

This morning, other trouble spots popped up in northern Vermont, near the Canadian border. The Barton River at Coventry and the Missisquoi river near North Troy were at minor flood stage. Heavy rains yesterday fell atop soils soaked by very heavy rains that hit up there on Sunday. 

We had reports of a lot of street flooding Thursday in Newport and Middlebury. Probably other towns experienced that, too. 

Rainfall was quite heavy in many spots. Burlington had 1.11 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.54 inches. A full report on how much rain fell in specific towns will become available later this morning. 

WHAT'S AHEAD?

Thankfully, we're done with the violent weather at least for awhile, but conditions will be unsettled and wet at times. Northern Vermont in particular is in for some showery weather this weekend. 

The out of season, strong low pressure system that gave Vermont the rough weather yesterday is meandering through Quebec. It's rotating little disturbances through here and will continue to do so through the weekend. 

That means frequent bursts of rain,  especially north. Total rainfall through Sunday night will be near an inch over the northern Green Mountains. In most valley towns north of Route 2,  a half to three quarters of an inch will come down between now and Monday morning.   

The rainfall will taper to a quarter inch in central Vermont and less than a tenth of an inch in far southeast Vermont. A  few garden variety thunderstorms and downpours will probably mix in, so a few towns will get more rain than the rest of Vermont as a result. 

A few daily details: 

Today

Mostly cloudy and breezy with west to southwest winds gusting to 25 or 20 mph. Most of the afternoon showers and garden variety thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be north of Route 2, but some will drift into central Vermont by very late afternoon or the first half of tonight. A few storms might have briefly heavy downpours, but not enough to cause any flooding or anything like that. 

Highs should reach the low and mid 70s in most valleys

Saturday

Probably the worst day of the bunch. Northern areas will see very little sun and frequent showers. Southern valleys will see some sun, but also a risk of a shower. It will be quite cool for the season with highs in the 60s north, with low to mid 70s southern valley floors. 

Hikers should be aware that summits will be wet and cold tomorrow with wind chills in the 40s. If you insist on hiking, it won't be a summertime activity. Dress accordingly. 

Sunday

More showers and garden variety thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 70s, give or take. 

 

Late Afternoon Vermont Storm Update. Possible Tornado In Woodstock; Severe Threat Is Over, But It Will Stay Showery For Days

Weather radar in Vermont looks really busy shortly 
before 1 p.m. as a line of thunderstorms was passing 
through. The irregular yellow rectangles are severe
storm warnings, and there has been reports of wind
damage these storms across various parts of Vermont.

That line of storms blasted through Vermont as expected. One tornado might have touched down in Woodstock. That's being investigated.  

Some of the stronger storms did put up a spin, so they got close.  The storm in Woodstock particularly showed rotation.  

The severe thunderstorm warnings were mostly in central and southern Vermont. Many of the warnings had enhanced wording that mentioned that tornadoes can form quickly out of severe thunderstorms. 

The wording was added because radar indicated some rotation in the storms, but National Weather  Service meteorologists didn't think a tornado seemed imminent. 

There were some reports of damage. A tree fell on some power lines along Pond Road on the Fairfield/Swanton town line, early this afternoon, but the road was soon reopened. 

In Woodstock, where the possible tornado touched down, numerous trees were sheared off on a hillside and part of a small barn was ripped away. 

Elsewhere, a large tree snapped off and several other tree were damaged in East Pittsford, not far north of Rutland. Power lines and at least one tree was reported down in East Barre. Numerous trees, branches and wires were down in Hartford, Vermont. 

Trees and power lines were also reported down in Williamstown, Lincoln, Middlebury and Danby.

The number of Vermont power outages zoomed upward to over 21,000, mostly in southern and eastern parts of the state, as that's where the thunderstorms were most intense.  

I'm sure more reports of storm damage will come in as the storms depart.  If any damage reports pique the interest of the National Weather Service, they'll send personnel over to determine whether it was a tornado or straight line winds. I suspect a meteorologist might pay a visit to Woodstock, but that has not been established yet. 

The tornado watch that was in effect across Vermont has expired.as o 3 p.m. A tornado watch continued in far southern Vermont as of 3:45, but that probably will have expired by the tine you read this.  The threat of severe weather is over in Vermont.

A tornado watch remained in effect across New Hampshire and western Maine as the line of severe storms continued on thorough that area. 

One flash flood warning was issued in Vermont, in northwestern Bennington County. That area got a ton of rain Sunday, and another one to there inches fell in a short period of time today. So I'm sure some gravel roads and driveways suffered some damage in that area.

WHAT'S NEXT?

The wind advisory is still in effect.  The gusts weren't as bad as expected ahead of the thunderstorms, though Bennington did gust to 44 mph this morning. Strong southwest winds were blowing in central and western New York, gusting over 50 mph in spots. 

Some of those southwest winds are coming  into Vermont but they shouldn't be as bad as in New York. Still, some gusts over 30 mph might happen. A few areas in the eastern slopes of the Green mountains especially in southern Vermont could see gust to 40 or 45 mph. We'll have some isolated additional cases of trees blowing over and widely scattered power outages because of this. 

As of 3:30 p.m, there was an odd line of thunderstorms in northwestern New York on up into Montreal. They were heading east. If they hold together, they'll make it into northern Vermont late this afternoon and this evening. They might contain lightning and brief downpours if the hold together, but I don't expect anything severe out of them. 

Also, a new downpour was developing for some reason over the middle of Lake Champlain and was headed into Chittenden County as of 4 p.m. 

We'll have cool, showery weather through the weekend, but it won't rain all the time. Best chances of showers are north and mountains. Some areas of southeast Vermont might only get a sprinkle or two out of this. 

 

44 mph gust Bennington 11 a.m. 

 

Rare Tornado Watch In Effect For Vermont/New York Today: High Winds, Then Severe Storms, Some Twisters Possible

UPDATE: 10:30 a.m.

Here's a weather map you don't see 
every day. The greatest chances of
tornadoes today, according to NOAA
are along the Gulf Coast and in 
Vermont (brown shading). 
Still, the risk of a twister is very low
and if severe storms develop today
the trouble would probably come
from intense straight line winds

A rare tornado watch is in effect for Vermont and much of New York.

The tornado watch remains in effect until 3 p.m. It actually covers all of Vermont and most of New York State.'

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, strong winds aloft caused by that intense winter like storm will increase the risk of intense winds with the storms, 

Because winds are changing direction in different levels of the atmosphere, some storms could start to rotate, which helps explain why there could be some brief tornadoes in New York or Vermont. 

Already, one tornado warning has been issued in western New York and there are a bunch of severe thunderstorm warnings out there. 

Another unusual thing is the timing. Most severe storm outbreaks peak in the late afternoon and evening, But this storm's cold front is coining earlier. 

And the atmospheric dynamics are so great that severe thunderstorms and even isolated tornadoes can develop in the late morning and early afternoon.

The main threat is strong straight line winds from the storms, by the way. The chances of a tornado are still low, but obviously there. 

Aside from the severe weather threat, winds are increasing in Vermont ahead of the storms as of 10 a.m so scattered  power outages are likely to develop over the next few hours. Even before any thunderstorms get here. 

Definitely be weather aware today and heed any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. There's a chance some of these storms might end up being more intense than our typical summer windbags, 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

So far, our storm is playing out as expected here in Vermont, but some surprises might still be in store.

Whatever happens, this will be one of Vermont's nastiest weather days of the summer. 

 A swath of rain, some of it moderate to heavy, was moving through the Green Mountain State as of 8:30 a.m.  Judging from weather radar, the steady rain will soon turn showery, with frequent downpours mixed with brief breaks. 

WIND

The showers will tend to diminish for a relatively brief period later this morning. That's when the wind will really kick in. 

The wind advisory for gusts to 40 to 55 mph is still in effect. It covers all of Vermont except the Connecticut River Valley south of roughly Wells River. 

We'll see some power outages blossom here and there as some trees give up the ghost with the onslaught of winds. 

As I keep saying, winds of that magnitude almost never happen in the summer. When we get this type of storm in the winter, when they're more common,  the wind passes pretty easily through bare branches so it's not as much of a problem. 

Leafed out trees are heavier, and the leaves act as little sails to tug at the trees. In many places, the soil has gotten pretty wet, making it easier to uproot trees when they tilt in the wind. 

This won't exactly be a huge destructive storm like a hurricane, but we'll lose a few trees and branches. 

Strongest winds still look like they'll hit the northern Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Lake Champlain should be pretty wild with two to four foot waves, maybe even a bit higher than that on the broad lake during the worst of the wind. 

STORMS

The thunderstorm outlook for this afternoon is still challenging. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 out of 5 alert - for severe storms today. 

And here's a new twist. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the two places in the nation with the highest chances of tornadoes today are parts of the Gulf Coast, and Vermont (along with eastern New York and western New Hampshire).

Granted, it's still a very low chance, but not quite as low as we usually see during severe storm risk days.  Usually, when I mention a very low risk of  tornado, it means a 2 percent chance of seeing a twister with 25 miles of your location.

This time, it's a 5 percent chance of seeing a tornado with 25 miles of your location. Those are still low odds, but not as low as it could be. 

The SPC says some low top rotating supercells could get going  in our atmosphere today. But the biggest threat is some storms grabbing some of the odd, high speed air flowing a few thousand feet overhead and bringing those winds to the surface in a few locations. 

If storms develop this afternoon, they'll move rapidly. Storm intensity will probably change quickly, one way or the other, as well. That means you'll get little or no advance warning when they approach.  If you see dark clouds to the west, it'll be best if you get inside a sturdy building quickly, even if there is no severe storm warning in effect at that moment. 

Severe storms in Vermont are NOT a foregone conclusion, however. Maybe the winds aloft could be actually too strong for big thunderstorms to develop. Especially since this morning's rain and a warm layer of air high up in the atmosphere might prevent tall thunderstorms clouds from forming. 

But I wouldn't relax about it. I know we didn't get the predicted severe weather this past Sunday. But this is a completely different weather setup than we had on Sunday, so the outcome on what might happen will also be completely different. 

If we don't get any severe storms, great! But be prepared, because a few towns - not all of us but a fe towns - could really get nailed with nasty, damaging thunderstorm winds. 

The severe storm threat should be over by this evening

FLOODING

Despite the bursts of heavy rain, I'm not too concerned about any flooding. Everything is just moving along too fast. Downpours won't linger over one area too long. Even if we get severe thunderstorms, they will produce torrential downpours that won't last long 

Still, there's a chance that a couple spots could get such a gully washer that a gravel road or two could see damage. The risk is quite low, but there. I notice there is a flood watch in northern New Hampshire. Strong winds hitting the White Mountains is causing the air flow to rise violently, which could set off some nasty downpours there. 

BEYOND TODAY

I won't get into much detail here, because we have our hands full with today. Tomorrow will actually be OK, with some sun, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers or maybe a garden variety thunderstorm. It'll still be quite breezy, but not downright windy like today. Highs will get well into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday look worse, with showers and garden variety thunderstorms  likely, especially north. It'll be cool, too, with highs Saturday in the 60s to low 70s and readings just a couple degrees higher Sunday. 

Valleys in southern Vermont will probably eek out some decent weather over the weekend with a lower chance of showers and more breaks of sun.

A risk of rain and showers will continue into next week, but temperatures will moderate to near normal late June levels by the middle of the week. We hope. 

Wednesday Evening Storm Update: A Very Gusty Thursday, Severe Storms Still A Threat

I'm considering laying the umbrella on its side and securing
some of the outdoor furniture on my St. Albans, Vermont 
deck given the wind advisory in effect for tomorrow.

 Just a quick update on our weird storm coming in tomorrow. 

The main news is the wind advisory in effect for most of Vermont with just the lower Connecticut River Valley not in the alert zone. Winds could gust as high as 45 to 55 mph in spots. The areas expected the strongest winds are the northern Champlain Valley, the western slopes of the Green Mountains and the northern slopes of the Adirondacks. 

The winds will be strongest probably between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m., with a second surge in northern New York between 3 and 8 p.m. This evening would be a great time to get your deck and lawn furniture to a secure location. 

As I mentioned yesterday, strong winds of this type happen occasionally in the winter. But they're rare this time of year. Trees are leafed out. Each leaf acts like a little sail and will tug the trees sideways in the wind. Some trees will fall. I'm sure we'll see some power outages here and there tomorrow.

Strong low pressure passing by near Ottawa will drive these winds.  In the summer months, this type of thing happens less than once every decade. 

The other problem is the risk of severe thunderstorms. This risk is still iffy. The strong winds aloft high above us might help blow wannabe storms apart, or make them worse. That's an oversimplified description but it about covers it. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has Vermont under a slight risk level 2 out of 5 alert for severe storms tomorrow. 

NOAA has added a very, very low chance of brief twisters in the Connecticut River Valley and in New Hampshire.

If we do see any severe storms, they'll come through between about noon and 5 p.m. 

Total rainfall still looks like it will be about three quarters of an inch or so. Strong winds aloft smacking into the mountain might create a rain "shadow" in parts of the Champlain Valley where only maybe a half inch will fall.  Flooding looks really unlikely at this point. 

Full update will come in the beginning of the chaos tomorrow morning. 

A Small Storm Chance Today Followed By Weird, Stormy Vermont Day Tomorrow

Much like this past Sunday, much of the Northeast
including Vermont is in a level two out of five risk
for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (yellow
shading). Whether we get severe storms 
tomorrow depends on whether building storms
can grab high speed air screaming overhead.

 Yesterday was another gorgeous day in Vermont, although a couple late afternoon and evening showers and storms in the Adirondacks. 

Now, we're gearing up for another weird storm in Vermont. It's the "winter storm" I talked about yesterday. More on that  mess in a minute, but let's just look at today's forecast first. Just so we can relax a bit

TODAY

It'll generally be a not bad day. It started off gorgeous with blue skies and in some areas, a nice breeze.

The clouds will tend to increase today, and a couple showers or thunderstorms might pop up this afternoon. Many of us will stay dry, but others will have one or two wet periods. Not a washout at all. Highs should flirt with 80 degrees today. 

THURSDAY 

Kind of a complicated mess of a day with gusty winds, bursts of rain and the risk of severe thunderstorms. 

Our winter-like storm looks like it will set off a nasty tornado and severe thunderstorm outbreak across Illinois and Indiana today. By tomorrow morning, the storm should be somewhere in the general vicinity of Ottawa. 

As I mentioned yesterday, storm systems, if they exist at all in the summer, are almost always very weak. This will be a strong one, the kind of storm you see pretty often in the winter, when storms tend to be a lot more energetic 

In general, the lower the air pressure, the stronger the storm. This one looks like it might have a barometric pressure below 990 millibars, which is near record territory for June. Since the storm will be passing so close to Vermont, we might  have barometer readings that might be close to record lows.

But that's not what we have to worry about. 

The problem with this storm will be wind. We'll have just the regular strong winds that a strong low pressure system stirs up, and the possibility of even more damaging winds with a few strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms. 

Wind

In the summer, since storm systems are weak, we almost never had strong, gusty winds, except of course in thunderstorms. And those thunderstorm winds only cover a small fraction of the state when they do occur.

With our strong storm, it will be windy almost everywhere in Vermont tomorrow. Gusts will reach 35 to 40 mph at times across most of the state, with locally higher winds of up to 45 or 50 mph in a couple spots.  

Those kinds of gusts hit all the time in the winter when the trees are leafless. But now, the trees are heavy with leaves. Each leaf will act like a little sail tugging at trees as the winds blow through. That means a few trees and branches might give up the ghost and crash to the ground. 

Some of those trees will take down power lines. This won't be an anywhere near a blackout situation, but a few scattered power outages seem possible.  I'd stay off of Lake Champlain, too. The broad lake should have at least two to four foot waves, which isn't great for small boats. 

Thunderstorms

A warm front that's part of the storm will throw a burst of moderate to heavy rain at us for a few hours in the morning. There might be a rumble of thunder or two with this, but they won't be severe. It'll just be sort of a stormy, unpleasant morning. 

Then, in the afternoon, the warm front will be in Quebec and the storm's cold front will be to our west, heading our way.

In this zone, we are at risk of severe storms.  But it's iffy. We indeed might see those severe storms. But there's a chance it could end up being like this past Sunday, where no severe storms really developed,

Like last Sunday, Vermont is in a slight risk zone, (alert level 2 out of 5) for severe storms tomorrow, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

There will be a lot of clouds around, and it won't get super warm tomorrow (highs in the mid 70s to near 80).  Those conditions would tend to dampen the risk of storms. 

But remember, our parent storm system in southern Canada is super intense for this time of year. Winds several thousand feet overhead will be screaming along. Storms that do develop could grab some of that high speed air and blast it down on us, leading to locally damaging gusts. 

Or, the winds aloft might be so strong that they tilt wannabe thunderstorms so they have trouble getting severe. We don't know yet. 

It's a maybe, maybe not proposition, so stay tuned and be prepared in case there are severe storms tomorrow. The storms will be moving very fast because of those strong upper level winds. So there might not be much warning for you if a severe storm develops. 

Do note that just because we didn't see severe storms last Sunday, we're not immune from such storms tomorrow. This is an entirely different weather setup that we had a few days ago, so you can't rely on last Sunday's weather maps for clues.  

Flooding

I'm not really that worried about flooding. Sure, rain might come down hard at times. But everything will be moving so fast that the downpours will zip on through before they can cause much trouble.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does have us in marginal risk zone (Level 1 out of 4) for flash flooding. That's because a few areas of Vermont have gotten really sodden from recent rains, so it might not take much to set off some high water. But if something like that does occur, it will be pretty isolated and scattered.

In general, we should expect a half inch to an inch of rain out of this storm, give or take

AFTER THE STORM

In the winter, storms like this often stalls or slows down way up north in Quebec or in the Canadian Maritime provinces, creating cold northwest winds, wind chills and snow showers. Those snow showers usually focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

None of that will happen, but it will be cool. And breezy. With showers. Rain showers, not snow showers, of course! Those showers could happen anywhere, but yes, they'll focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

The cool air won't be really established yet on Friday, so it'll get into the 70s. Best chance of shower is i the afternoon and evening. 

Saturday will be the cold, blustery post-"winter storm" day. Highs will only get into the 60s to around 70, and there will be quite a few showers around. Nothing heavy, but just enough to make the day exactly the opposite of the warm, bright sunny Saturday we had last weekend. 

Sunday will be somewhat better, but we'll still have a risk of light showers. 

Very often, after a winter storm passes just to our north in, say, January,  a follow up storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. That gives Vermont a nice snowstorm, especially south. 

Again, no snow this time, it's a zillion times too warm. But Monday could turn out cool and rainy as a storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. It's still too soon to know how much rain, but the best chances are across southern Vermont. 

This "winter weather pattern" won't last all summer, of course. Temperatures should warm up to more seasonal levels later next week, with no cold season type storms in sight. 

A Gorgeous Vermont Tuesday As We Get Ready For The Next Storm Due Thursday

Our Tuesday morning started clear and delightfully cool, with most of us in the 50s at dawn. A few of the traditional cold spots were in the 40s. 

Rainfall map from Sunday's storm, Interestingly 
rainfall totals were very close to what was predicted
in most areas even though the feared severe 
weather and flash flooding mostly didn't materialize 

This portends a gorgeous day with sunshine, a few fair weather clouds, and highs in the 70s with low humidity. 

Before we get into the rest, let's clean up some of what's already happened. We'll start with a map the National Weather Service released showing rainfall from Sunday's storm. 

Despite the lack of severe weather and flooding (except in the central Green Mountains) actual rainfall totals came out close to what was expected.

 Areas near the Canadian border pretty uniformly received more than an inch of rain, as predicted. But there were no locally higher amounts that would produce flooding. 

The central Champlain Valley had less rain, closer to a half to three quarters of an inch. Southeast Vermont got a half inch, in line with forecasts.

The surprise was a tongue of very heavy rain through southern and eastern Rutland County and western Windsor County. In that band, some towns got three to four inches of rain. No wonder there was some flash flooding near Killington, 

Monday was a little cloudier than expected but still nice, if cool. We've got our nice day today, followed by the next big storm. Big for June anyway. Here are the details

Today: We've already covered it, Get outside and enjoy?

Wednesday: Ahead of the main storm, a little disturbance coming in will add some question marks to the day's weather.  It looks like most of the showers and garden variety thunderstorms that develop will stay in New York. But a few of them will drift into Vermont, so you might find yourself dodging raindrops or a quick downpour. 

Only some of us will get wet. Right now it looks like about 30 percent of us will get some showers. If it does rain where you are, it won't amount to much. 

Thursday: That's when we get our winter-like storm. Don't worry, it only looks like a winter storm on weather maps, We won't have anything close to wintry weather, so you can just relax. 

But we're going to talk about winter for a few more paragraphs, so deal with it. Often, when winter storms approach us from the southwest,  an approaching warm front gives us a big thump of snow that ends up being the bulk of the storm,

Almost the same thing will happen here, except the big thump of snow will obviously be rain. So, as it looks now, anyway, Thursday morning and maybe early afternoon look stormy with a drenching rain, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Winds might be slightly gusty in the mountains and in the Champlain Valley, we'll see about that.

In the winter, once the warm front passes, we get a period of light mixed precipitation, followed by maybe a snow squall once the cold front arrives 

Once again, we'll have a similar experience, but no wintry precipitation of course!  Instead, during the day, we'll have a period of somewhat more humid air. Instead, we'll have scattered showers and thunderstorms, with maybe sone stronger thunderstorms when the cold front arrives, probably sone tine in the afternoon.

I suppose some of the storms could be strong with gusty winds and torrential downpours,  But at this point it loos like the day will be cloudy, with not a big push of warm to hot air. So similar to Sunday, we might not see much severe weather. It looks like the bulk of the severe weather will hit the Mid-Atlantic States instead 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a level one out of five marginal risk of severe storms on Thursday. That could change, so stay tuned 

Meteorologists, at least at this point aren't too worried about flooding, either.  The big thump of rain will come through so fast that it won't have time to deposit incredible amounts of rain 

Though the afternoon thunderstorms might dump locally torrential rain, those storms, too, will move fast, The downpours won't sit over one place very long, 

Still, a few spots in Vermont have had a lot of rain in the past couple of weeks. We could still have some local flash floods, But it won't be anything widespread. 

After Thursday 

Another comparison to a winter storm here. After our January snowstorm departs, we have a few days of cold, cloudy weather with snow showers,

So, in this case, we'll have cool, somewhat cloudy weather Friday and through the weekend with risks of showers. Maybe even a garden variety thundershower thrown in for luck. By cool, I mean highs Friday through Sunday would be mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s across Vermont. 

Another quick moving, sort of winter like storm might breeze by next Monday. It'll probably be smaller than Thursday's storm, and could miss us entirely. It's too soon to tell.

We'll forget about winter-like storms soon enough. The final days of June should moderate to somewhat more summer like temperatures. 

 

UFC Fight At White House Prompts Weather Fight With Forecasters

The big UFX fight outside the White House Sunday
Night. Photo from the Associated Press

Donald Trump's weird, silly UFC fights on the South Lawn of the White House went on last night despite threatening, oppressive, buggy weather. 

The fight was postponed an hour to 9 p.m. because of storm threats, and before the match, attendees wandered around in direct sunshine in humid, 90 degree heat, so I'm sure some people were dangerously dehydrated.

A second fight on Sunday went on between weather forecasters and White House spin doctors and trolls. 

Whether or not you found the whole spectacle an embarrassment, The Weather Channel, echoing other meteorological people, had this to say on the social medial platform X:

"UFC Freedom 250 is facing a chaotic weather setup on the White House South Lawn, with a 60% chance of thunderstorms heavy down-ours and wind gusts up to 34 mph threatening to delay the outdoor fights."

The Weather Channel post on X continued:

"On top of the storm risk, brutal D.C. humidity is driving a triple-digit heat index alongside massive swarms of mosquitoes and gnats that fighters will have to battle inside the cage, While the venue's massive 92-foot overhang will keep the octagon dry, a single lightning strike within eight miles will trigger an automatic 30-minute freeze on the entire event."

The White House "Rapid Response account on X responded with the following:

"This event is about celebrating America's unmatched greatness after 250 years - which apparently doesn't sit well with the friendless loser who wrote this bullshit clickbait headline. Rain or shine, we're celebrating out great country no matter what. GOD BLESS AMERICA!" With a little flag emoji.

I'm not sure how a cage match celebrates American, but whatevs. 

But, despite The Weather Channel's typical ominous end of the world prose, they were basically right. There were a lot of storms near Washington Sunday, but most of the worst ones went north and south of the nation's Capitol 

And there was no question the heat was awful. The high temperature reached a miserable 96 degrees with a heat index just about nudging 100 degrees.

As the fights got under way, it was still 79 degrees with a heat index in the low 80s

Still, the MAGA crowd was seething that The Weather Channel decided to.....forecast the weather. 

One MAGA person in X responded to the White House "Rapid Response" shit post wrote, "I had no idea the Weather Channel hated America so much that they were willing to lie about the weather conditions in hopes of deterring the American people of getting together for this amazing event."

Which is typical. Gaslight people into thinking it was a pleasant evening. I guess forecasters should have lied and said it would be sunny and 70 with low humidity just to keep the Orange King happy on his 80th birthday. 

Other, somewhat more sane people took The Weather Channel's side, laughing at the MAGA uproar over a simple summer weather forecast. 

"Imagine getting this emotional because The Weather Channel checked the forecast. They didn't insult American They reported humidity."

The real scary posts were the ones that said God intervened to split the storms so they didn't ruin the cage match. 

As if God had nothing better to do than ensure a sagging, tired orange makeup addict could watch sweaty men fight from the comforts of the White House. 

Thunderstorms are naturally hit and miss. They pretty much missed the big UFC event. Lucky for the fans, not important to the rest of us. 

 

Another Vermont Break: Severe Storms, Flooding Mostly Didn't Materialize. So, What's Next?N

Stormy, volatile looks skies over St. Albans, Vermont
last evening, but severe weather and flash flooding
mostly did not materialize in the Green Mountain
State on Sunday, despite forecasts to the contrary

Yesterday, we went through our second threat of severe, damaging weather in Vermont within three days, and once again, we largely escaped trouble.  

Maybe I feel a little like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, but not really. First of all, we should be grateful there wasn't much in the way of damaging storms or high water. Secondly, weather almost always surprises, despite our nation's supposed meteorological prowess. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

 I also think National Weather Service forecasting has deteriorated a little thanks to Trump's DOGE cuts to this critically important agency, but I'm still waiting on the studies that prove it. This is not a criticism of the meteorologists working at the NWS. It's a criticism of the government that's running it. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

There were a couple trouble spots last night. The National Weather Service had to issue a flash flood warning for the Green Mountains roughly between Rutland and White River Junction. Numerous small roads off of Route 4 near Killington became impassable overnight due to washouts and flooding. Up to four inches of rain was reported in the area. 

A flood advisory was still in effect early this morning over in northern New Hampshire. 

The rain was substantial in northern Vermont, but definitely less than feared. I don't have much in the way of reports yet, but I'm sure forecasts of over an inch of rain near the Canadian border came true. At least in a few spots. But the localized three inch totals probably didn't happen

There were no severe thunderstorms Sunday in Vermont that I'm aware of. I think the skies were too cluttered with clouds and showers during the morning and afternoon to produce the storms. Temperatures across much of central and northern Vermont held in the low to mid 70s under the clouds, not the 80s that had been predicted.

That meant less energy and less instability for severe storms. Almost all the severe weather stayed clustered in the Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the Mid-Atlantic states. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Now that our Sunday storm is done, we can look forward to some decent weather for the next couple of days before the next system arrives later in the week.

We'll go with partly sunny skies after clouds clear out this morning.  Broader valleys will be sunniest this afternoon as a few instability clouds litter the blue skies over the Green Mountains. Highs will be i the 70s. Tomorrow will pretty much be a carbon copy to today. 

We'll start getting back into the clouds and shower risks on Wednesday, but the day won't be a washout. Highs will reach the 70s to around 80.

Thursday looks like an interesting day from a meteorological perspective, but - fingers crossed - I suspect Vermont might dodge more bullets. No promises yet, but so far, it looks OK. 

A pretty strong storm  for this time of  year- one that you usually see in the winter, not summer - should originate around Colorado or Wyoming tomorrow. It will race east to a spot somewhere near Minnesota or Wisconsin on Wednesday. Then it will continue blasting generally eastward, arriving in southeastern Ontario or southern Quebec Thursday. 

The storm seems almost guaranteed to bring a nasty swath of severe thunderstorms and maybe tornadoes in the Midwest Wednesday and Mid-Atlantic States Thursday. 

On this path, Vermont would be in the sweet spot. We'd be close enough to the storm center so that the severe storms wouldn't get quite this far north. The heaviest rain would fall in Quebec. And besides, whether you're in Quebec or Vermont, the storm will blast through so quickly that we wouldn't get enough rain to create much flooding. 

I do give a caveat, as there is a risk some severe storms could sneak into Vermont, especially the south, but so far, so good. 

The storm will probably give us a decent dousing of rain. And since it will be an unusually strong storm, gusty non-thunderstorm winds might bring down a few isolated trees, branches or power lines. 

This is all early guesses. I'll have more when we get closer to the event. 

We're falling into a cool, unsettled weather pattern that will probably last until near the end of the month. Such a pattern features somewhat below normal temperatures most days. It also features frequent chances of showers, but overall rainfall after Thursday shouldn't really be all that heavy. 

So Far, Nothing Terrible In Vermont, But The Test Is This Evening, Flood, Severe Threat Continues

Not much activity in Vermont as of 5:20 p.m. as this
National Weather Service radar showed. But there
was a mess of showers, thunderstorms and 
downpours across western and central New York, 

 Things have felt pretty safe weather wise in Vermont so far today, but it looks like the critical time will be between now and about midnight or so. Especially for the flood risk. 

Rain showers have zipped across Vermont all day,  mostly north of Route 2 as expected. 

Although some of the showers had briefly heavy rain, they haven't yet been enough to set off any flooding concerns. 

The main atmospheric dynamics and the approach of the cold front will occur over the next few hours. 

Heavy rain and thunderstorms have blossomed over western New York and especially southeast Ontario, All the was headed generally eastward.

Whether or not this translates to severe thunderstorms or flash flooding in Vermont remains to be seen. 

Storms

As of late this afternoon, the threat of severe storms was more iffy than the heavy rain. Overcast skies have kept the instability in check.  

 A special discussion from NOAAs Storm Prediction Center noted the clouds holding instability in check across northern New York and northern Vermont might be overwhelmed by the strong winds aloft. 

If some thunderstorms get going, they might be able to create some strong wind gusts and hail However, if big storms do form, they will be pretty isolated in nature. That means storm in  northern Vermont probably won't be widespread enough to t warrant any kind of severe thunderstorm watch. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says they've noted bit of converging air masses roughly along a line from Saranac Lake, New York to Montpelier, 

Strong to severe storms might still fire up along that line this evening. Maybe. It still remains to be seen. 

In southern Vermont, there have been breaks of sun, and it's a little warmer and more humid down there. So the ingredients are still in place for strong to severe storms down there .

Flooding

This still looks like the greater of the two threats. But that doesn't mean another Flood of '23 by any stretch of the imagination. 

However, that doesn't let us entirely off the hook. There could be some spots with flash flooding, especially in the northern Green Mountains and in the Northeast Kingdom. And maybe near that convergence zone on the Saranac Lake to Montpelier line, 

Heavy bursts of rain will occur almost everywhere in Vermont. So any place that gets repeatedly hit by downpours this evening and early tonight is at risk for flash flooding.

The heaviest rain seems to be running a little behind scheduled. Downpours could persist until midnight or even a little after, so if we get any flash flooding, it could continue into the early morning hours of Monday. 

The flood watch in the northern half of Vermont remains in effect until 8 a.m. Monday. 

All the influences going on with this evening's weather are touch and go, So we might see severe storms and flooding or, if we're lucky, this will be another whiff.

In this case, whiffs are good. No damage, no scary moments, then no complaints. But we still need to be on our toes into this evening. 

The cold front will pass overnight. We're still anticipating delightful weather tomorrow. 

 

Stormy Vermont Weather Today To Bring Risk Of Damaging Winds, Local Flash Floods

Areas in yellow have the highest chance of 
seeing at least scattered severe thunderstorms
today. You see Vermont is included. 

 Yesterday was as perfect a summer day you can get in Vermont. The skies were blue and flecked with a few pretty puffy clouds. There was no haze, so the Green Mountains glimmered in their proper color. The air was quite warm, the humidity was gone, and a light breeze made it all feel perfect.  

Today, not so much. 

That strong cold front we've been talking about is threatening us with some really bad weather today. For most of us, it will be merely unpleasant, loud and at times dramatic. For a small minority of us, it could actually be dangerous. 

The two threats today are severe thunderstorms and local flash flooding. There is already a flood watch in effect for the northern half of Vermont today into early Monday. 

Who gets slammed with the worst weather today is mostly the luck of the draw. It depends on where the worst storms set up, and where the heaviest downpours fall.

But it's not entirely a guessing game. We do have a broad idea what will happen. But thunderstorms develop pretty quickly, so the exact spot that gets in trouble becomes clear often only minutes before the actual trouble arrives.  

This is the kind of day that you'll maybe want to rethink outdoor plans like hiking in the mountains or boating across Lake Champlain or a picnic on that gorgeous meadow,. 

You'll also want a way to receive warnings from the National Weather Service. I do think a few severe thunderstorm warnings will go out today. And there might well be a flash floor warning or two, especially north. 

 Severe Storms 

Areas in green shading have a very low, but not zero
chance of seeing a tornado today. Note that 
includes northern Vermont. 

On Friday, we didn't have much in the way of severe thunderstorms because the upper winds weren't very strong. That's not the issue today. Those winds high above us will be strong this afternoon and evening, and they will change direction with height. Storms could bring those high winds down on us. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center early this morning updated their outlook. All of Vermont is in a slight risk zone of severe storms . That's a level two out of five risk level.  Actually a huge area is under that slight risk zone, from the western half of New England, as far west as Ohio, and all the way down the East Coast as far as northern Georgia. 

In all these areas, including Vermont, the biggest hazard  from this set up is strong, damaging straight line winds. 

However, in many areas under this risk zone, there's a risk of a brief tornado. That little twister risk includes Vermont north of Route 4 and northern New York, New Hampshire and Maine. 

The risk of a tornado is very, very low, but not zero. 

The best chance for severe storms is from about noon to 6 p.m. north, possibly lasting a little longer than that central and south. 

Flash Flooding

Weather radar at 10 a.m. showed areas of heavy rain
already starting to move toward far northern Vermont.
Repeated rounds of storms and downpours today 
and tonight could lead to some flash flooding, 

Don't let  today's early morning low humidity fool you, a big surge of moisture is coming in, an is about to interact with that slow moving cold front coming at us from the northwest. 

This will be like the thunderstorm risk: Most places won't have a flood, but there's at least a chance some places will, Especially north of Route 2, and most especially near the Canadian border. 

One area of rain, with a few embedded downpours, seemed to be moving into far northern Vermont as of 9:30 a.m. which could be the start of the soaking up there. 

Waves of thunderstorms and torrential showers should sweep across Vermont today and the first half of tonight, and that's especially true in the north. 

Some areas in northern parts of the sate could see more than 2.5 inches of rain out of this, though most places there will get a little over an inch. 

Individual showers and storms will be moving quite fast. That means just one or two storms moving over the same area won't linger long enough to produce flooding rains. But today,   numerous storms look like they will follow the same path, possibly dumping way too much water for brooks, creeks, ditches and culverts to handle. 

It looks like the latest data supports the idea of a flood risk. Early this morning, northern Maine was under a flood watch. By 8:43, a flood watch went up for northern New Hampshire. Then, at 9:23 a.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued that flood watch for northern Vermont. 

Bottom line: Today is one of those annoying days where we'll be dodging bad and sometimes dangerous weather. Unfortunately, a very few of us might be picked by Ma Nature to end up picking up pieces and filing insurance claims. 

Not just here, but up and down the East Coast. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The good news, I suppose, is that this cold front will usher in some delightful weather tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Highs both days will be in the 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Another strong storm for this time of year possibly looms for this Thursday, but let's worry about today and get to that one later. 

Storms, Heat Weren't As Bad As They Could Have Been, Cooling Trend To Start

One of the few strong-ish thunderstorms that developed
late Friday afternoon, see here over the northern
Green Mountains after dumping torrential rains
on Enosburg Falls. The storm weakened shortly
after this photo was taken, Severe weather didn't;t
really develop as forecast Friday, but it sure
was hot and humid and steamy. 

 Both the heat and the storms in Vermont on Friday didn't quite measure up to forecasts, but that's really OK. The alternative would have been worse. 

Storms tried to get going west of the Adirondacks early Friday morning and struggled as they moved east. They never did blossom until they hit the western slopes of the Green Mountains in central and northern Vermont. 

It looks like the mountains added a little lift to the atmosphere to strengthen the storms. The strongest storm developed a little northeast of Burlington. It was enough to knock over at least one tree in Jericho. That was the only report we've seem of a strong to severe storm.

Sure, some storms  had torrential rains. I noticed some minor street flooding in Enosburg Falls, for instance.. But it was certainly not a severe weather day. And many places remained dry. Here in St. Albans, we got a sprinkle, which was from the developing storm that eventually drenched Enosburg. 

Once the storms got into eastern Vermont, they weakened again. So it really wasn't the severe storm day we feared.

 A little disturbance  ahead of last night's alleged cold front was ultimately responsible for the storms that did form. The "pre-frontal trough," as it was called, is common ahead of summertime cold fronts. 

Clouds from that disturbance kept temperatures a couple degrees cooler than forecast. As if anybody noticed, as it was still hot and humid and gross.  (At any time yesterday, my sunglasses would fog up   if I stepped out of my air conditioned truck into our steamy atmosphere).

But it could have been a little worse.  But Burlington reached 92 degrees, not the record breaking 96 that was forecast. 

Montpelier did manage to break its record high for the dates, reaching 89 degrees. The old record was 88 set in 1949. But the hiogh temperature fell a little short of the predicted 93 degrees.

Now on to the forecast, and there are a couple more bumps in the weather road despite some really nice weather thrown in.

TODAY

It's a little hard to notice, but we're now in the "cool" air. Dawn broke with sunrise temperatures in the 60s across Vermont, with even a few upper 50s thrown in. It was warm, but still the coolest morning since Wednesday. 

Today itself will actually be a delight. The humidity will be lower than the past two days and temperatures will soar into the 80s with sunny skies. A beautiful day for just about anything outdoors, but still quite warm. Watch yourself if you're doing physical activity.

SUNDAY

Sunday afternoon and evening will bring on one of the bumps in our upcoming weather road. A pretty strong cold front will approach. You'll notice increasing humidity and increasing clouds as we head into the afternoon. We have two potential problems with this cold front. 

The first is the risk of severe weather. As is usually the case, just like we saw on Friday, we might not know for sure whether severe storms develop or not until shortly before they're scheduled. So far, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the best chances of strong or severe storms down in the Mid-Atlantic states with just a marginal risk in Vermont. 

But - as noted - the forecast could shift. Stay tuned to this bat channel for updates. If we do see anything severe, it would be in the late afternoon or early evening. 

The other problem is heavy rain and the risk of a few local flash flood problems, mostly north.  This won't be anything widespread, but a few spots could get bullseyed by a series of heavy downpours. NOAA has northern Vermont north of Route 2 under a marginal risk of flash floods tomorrow, 

A handful of places could get one, two, even three inches of rain in a short period of time. But most of us should see much less. In general, most places north will see about a half inch of rain, give or take ad the south should see a little less than half an inch. 

Again, this forecast could change and the amount of rain everyone gets should be super variable. Like yesterday's sprinkles in St. Albans and downpours in adjacent Sheldon. 

NEXT WEEK

It'll be much cooler, that's for sure. And mostly nice. Skies Monday and Tuesday should be at least partly sunny. Broader valleys would be mostly sunny. Highs should only reach the 70s with lows in the comfortable 50s.  Delightful unless you prefer the tropical heat we had yesterday. 

By Wednesday, showers could creep in ahead of our next big bump in the road. Thursday could turn rather stormy. 

Low pressure systems and storms are generally weak in the summer. Sure, you can get wild thunderstorms along otherswise wimpy cold fronts and near lame areas of low pressure, but the actual storm systems on the weather maps are usually pretty feeble this time of year.  

However, a strong storm for June looks like it would head at least sort of this way for Thursday. It's too soon to know exactly what this means for us, but depending on where the storm goes we could get quite a bit of rain, gusty non-thunderstorm winds or strong thunderstorms. Or maybe even nothing remarkable at all. Stay tuned!

Near Record Highs, Strong Thunderstorms In Vermont Today

A large part of the eastern U.S., including
most of Vermont, is under a level 2
slight risk of severe thunderstorms today. 
Level 2 out of 5 risk levels is 
in the yellow shaded areas. 

Heat and storms is the story today, as our hot weather peaks and a what is technically considered a cold front lurks to our west today.
 

We got a preview yesterday as the heat over-performed in at least some places. 

The heat over-performed a bit on Thursday, Burlington reached 91 degrees. It was a little sunnier than expected during the afternoon, which helped raise the temperatures a bit. .

Burlington tied the record for lowest high for the date Thursday, with a muggy low of 71 degrees. 

Storms were also thankfully more lackluster than expected on Thursday. 

A few small storms popped up here and there, but didn't amount to much, just some local downpours in a handful of spots. Then we get into today, which should be dreadful 

TODAY

Stormy and hot and humid is the word. Definitely a busy day. Most of us should get through much of the day without storms. They should become a problem later in the day.

Heat

The low temperature -  if you can call it that - this morning was 73 degrees in Burlington. If that holds through midnight, which is iffy, we'll have another record high "low" temperature for the date. 

That sets the stage or record highs, which we have a good shot at  being tied or broken. 

 The expected high temperature in Burlington is 95 or 96 degrees. The record high for today is 94 set in 2017. In Montpelier, the expected high today is 93 04 94 or so.  The record high there today is 88 degrees.

St. Johnsbury probably won't break their record high, but they should get close.  The record high there is 94 degrees, and the forecast high is in the low 90s.  In southeast Vermont, in the lower Connecticut River Valley, highs today are expected to be in the 93 to 96 degree range. 

Needless to say, heat advisories are in effect for low elevations in western and southeast Vermont. Other parts of the state don't quite it the criteria for a heat advisory, but it will be close.  It will be a dangerous day for vigorous outdoor activity. Stay in the shade if you can, drink plenty of fluids,  and stay in the air conditioning if at all possible.  

Today would be a great day to "kidnap" your elderly neighbor, relative or friend who does not have air conditioning in their house. Take them to a cool movie, or a restaurant with drafty air conditioning. They'll need it. 

Storms

We started this morning with a few showers and downpours across eastern Vermont, but that's not the main show. 

Things should begin to fire up  this afternoon.  The heat and humidity puts us on a hair trigger for fast developing storms.  It doesn't take much to set off some instant potentially strong thunderstorms in this environment.  

However, the actual triggers for storms today are  somewhat lacking. You need strong winds aloft that change direction with elevation to really get a severe weather outbreak going. 

We're sort of missing  the strong upper winds. Also, the "cold front" is coming through basically in pieces later today and tonight, so there's no big change of air. And it's barely cooler behind the front. 

All that is working against severe weather. But not preventing it. 

The models still disagree as of this morning about how many storms will form, and how bad they'll be, ad how they'll behave.  Something called the HRRR (a rapid refresh model that's updated every hour) has a fair number of storms, some possibly severe entering western Vermont by mid-afternoon. Other models wait until early evening to bring on the storms.  

The American computer model seems to think today will turn into something of a yawner. I'm not buying the American model, really. (The American model doesn't provide as much detail as some of the others). Other models bring in some potential strong storms, but not as aggressively as the HRRR. Pick your poison. 

I think the end result is a few of us will end up blasted by strong to severe storms. Many of us will at least hear thunder and get some rain, maybe a downpour.  Some towns will get nothing at all. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center pretty much has nearly all of Vermont in a slight risk for severe storms. That's a level 2 out of 5 risk. It means scattered severe storms are a good bet. Far eastern Vermont as of early this morning was in a level 1 marginal risk of isolated severe storms. 

This risk zone might be updated or changed later this morning. The key is the upper level winds. If they're even more lame than forecast, the risk of bad storms goes down. .If those winds increase, so does the risk of wild storms. Stay tuned on that as well. 

As always, we don't know who gets the severe storms until right before it happens. Between the heat, humidity and the storm risk, jettison your hiking plans.  Making today more complicated, the lack of high winds aloft means a severe storm could develop in a snap, then choke itself off quickly, only to be replaced by another strong storm not all that far away. 

Have a way to receive severe storm warnings. And, to be Captain Obvious once again, if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, it's time to get off the water, off the beach, out of the garden and head indoors.

Any storms that do form could have really torrential downpours. That could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal risk zone for such floods. The vast majority of us will be fine, but again, you'll won't know where the damaging gullywashers will hit until they actually arrive.  

I'd say a storm could pop off anytime after about noon, but the best chances are from about 3 to 8 p.m. or so. 

WEEKEND

We're calling it a "cold front" coming through later Friday but that's pretty highfalutin way of describing the lame thing that's actually arriving. Sure, it will fire up some storms today, as mentioned. But when it's oppressively steamy out there, it doesn't take much to get storms going. 

The truth of the matter is it won't really be "colder" behind our cold front. The temperature will drop a few degrees, but it will stay awfully warm. It will be less humid, but not exactly bone-dry, either. 

Some details:

Saturday: 

Very warm and sunny, a perfect summer day in Vermont. Highs should get up into the mid and upper 80s, so it should be a nice beach or swimming hole day. A few puffy clouds might decorate the skies, making it all the more scenic . 

Sunday

Very warm to hot again. A few places in the lower Connecticut Valley and Champlain Valley could reach 90 degrees again. But a cold front will be approaching. A real one this time. It looks like the front will stir up a bunch of shower and thunderstorms again during the afternoon. We're waiting on more information, but for now, there's a chance of a few severe storms too. 

In fact, there might be a better chance of severe storms Sunday than we have today. We'll provide updates as we get closer to the event. 

EARLY WEEK

Behind the honest to goodness real cold front, it will, turn, obviously, cooler. But not cold. This won't really be weather whiplash. Instead, we'll see highs generally in the 70s for the first half of the week, maybe ticking up toward 80 degrees once we get toward Wednesday.   

A storm spinning up near Hudson Bay might swing a few light showers our way during the first half of the week, but it won't be anything to worry about. It'll be dry most of the time.