Overnight Rain Is Over, Now Onto The Showers, Thunderstorm Later Today

A patch of clearing skies over St. Albans, Vermont
at 5:45 a..m, but ou can just see shower clouds
over the tree line looking toward New York.
A burst of rain hit not long after this photo
was taken. If it clears up again later this 
morning, that would increase the chances 
of strong storms a little bit. 

 I'm up bright an early for a start-of-the day appointment, so let's get into our latest out of rain and storms. 

As expected, rain moved over Vermont last night. Through 5 a.m., it hadn't amounted to all that much in  northern Vermont. 

It appears most places up there had a quarter inch or less. Southern Vermont, as expected, did better, with many places receiving a half inch or more of rain.  

We are, of course,  not done with the showers and storms. There were a few scattered showers and downpours wandering around the region as of 5:30 a.m., but also some breaks in the clouds. 

Whether it stays more cloudier or sunnier it remains this morning will influence how wild, or not wild the weather will become this afternoon. The sunnier ir gets this morning, the more likely a few stars could become strong.

This isn't a perfect setup for severe storms. The alleged cold front coming in to spark the storms doesn't really have any cold air behind it. The lack of a temperature contrast might constrain storms a bit. But there is converging winds near the front, so that's why some thunderstorms might spark. 

The air also isn't all that humid, so there's a little less fuel for strong thunderstorms than if the air was really muggy. 

There is enough of a chance for strong storms that NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont under a level one out of five marginal risk for severe storms. That means we could have isolated instances of damaging winds. There's also a very slight risk of large hail, too. 

The best chances of strong storms for most of us would be a little earlier than is typical - roughly between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m.  The best chance of strong storms would be in the early afternoon. 

We also might have a couple scattered showers or non-severe rumbles of thunder lasting into the ever. 

Even though thunderstorms might have some brief downpours, I'm not really worried about flooding for this go-around.  

The next issue facing us is, well, summer. 

WEEKEND

Saturday and Sunday look like a typical summer weekend. It'll be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday and low to mid 80s Sunday, with an odd 87 or 88 in the very warmest Banana Belt valleys. Humidity will be noticeable but not extreme. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the mountain both days. Especially Saturday.  

Some of those might try to drift into the valleys, but they'll probably tend to fall apart as they do so. 

EARLY WEEK

Then we get into real heat. I don't know exactly how hot it will get, but hot enought. There's a good chance at least some of us will make it to 90 degrees. It will also be very humid, meaning the night will be stuffy. 

The very warm, or hot weather with the muggy air should last most if not all of next week

Another thing to consider: The heat will be courtesy of a big "heat dome" that will set up over the eastern United States. The center of this heat dome will a little to our west. That opens us up to what are know as "ridge runners."

Ridge runners are packets of severe thunderstorms that go up and over the northern edge of the heat domes. When they start moving southeastward along the front side of the heat dome, the storms can get very feisty, sometimes dangerous. 

We'll be in that spot next week. The first chance of a "ridge runner" would come later Tuesday or Tuesday night. We could have one or two  more later in the week.

There's absolutely no guarantee we'll be affected by a ridge runner. They might miss us or not develop at all. You can predict the conditions that could create them well in advance. But you can't really confirm one will form or hit you until the day of the event. 

And if we do, there's no guarantee we'll be hit by the severe parts of a ridge runner. But it's something to keep in the back of your mind if you don't like damaging storms. 

Heat And Storms The Rest Of The Day In Vermont; Summer Weather Staying Put For Quite Awhile

Dark green areas on this map, including here in Vermont
have a low but not zero chance of severe thunderstorms 
today. That yellow and orange are in the central
Plains has a higher risk of bad storms. 

You can surely tell it's summertime in Vermont. 

The stereotypical clean, cool, refreshing air is gone for now, replaced by something much more tropical. Summers in recent years have gotten hotter and more humid in the Green Mountain State. We're living that tropical dream now, it seems. 

At least we still occasionally get cool, sunny breaks, like we did last Friday. 

But not this week. 

Burlington on Sunday tied the record first set in 1897 for the highest low temperature for the date. It never got cooler than 74 degrees yesterday.  The high in Burlington Sunday got up to 92 degrees, already the fifth time this year it's gotten to or past 90 degrees. 

We could make it to 90 degrees again today.

TODAY 

It was quite oppressive overnight into this morning, too. Burlington never got cooler than 77 degrees last night and early this morning. 

That warm start to the day sets the stage for a hot one, much like Sunday. Except with a somewhat greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Especially north. And later in the day. 

As of 10 a.m.,this morning,  there were lots of showers west and north of Montreal. Environment Canada had already issued a rainfall warning for possible local floods north of Montreal and a severe thunderstorm watch south of Montreal as of midmorning today. 

The Canadian showers were mostly heading east, and not so much south this morning, which is a symptom of how slowly a lame but wet cold front up in Quebec is staggering southward. 

Its slow movement suggests that most of the showers and thunderstorm probably won't break out until late this afternoon.  We might see a few rogue ones earlier this afternoon.  But most of the activity will come later, I think.There's a good chance most of them won't get too far south of Route 2 before evening.

The late arrival of most storms will enable most of Vermont to reach well into the 80s to maybe near 90 degrees. Those 90 degree readings are most likely in the central and southern Champlain Valley, where a heat advisory is still in effect today. Some 90s will probably pop up in the lower Connecticut River Valley, too. 

That the storms will start to come in mid-afternoon or later, that'll give some of them time to work with the hot, humid air to turn into real gulllywashers.   

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont north of about Route 4 north in a low level marginal risk zone for severe thunderstorms. That means there could be isolated instances of damaging winds with one or two of the storms. 

Additionally, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has all but the extreme southeast corner of Vermont in a low level risk zone for isolated instances of flash flooding today.   

Green areas on this map - and there's a lot of 'em -
have a risk of some isolated instances of flash
flooding today. Vermont is included in that.
Note the red area in Texas. That's where those
tragic floods hit over the weekend. Meteorologists
fear intense downpours will redevelop there
today, causing renewed, dangerous flash floods

That makes sense, since the storms that will develop later today have lots of moisture to work with, so they'll have torrential downpours. 

The storms that do get going should move along at a pretty good clip, so torrential downpours from each individual storm won't last all that long in any particular place.

That's great if you get hit by just one thunderstorms. Your storm won't hang around in your backyard long enough to flood it out.

The problem is that damn slow moving cold front. It could set up a situation in which one thunderstorm after another moves roughly west to east just south of the front as it comes toward us. 

This type of "line of boxcars" thunderstorms with repeated downpours could create a local flash flood threat.

I'll emphasize this isn't set in stone, it's just a possibility to watch for late this afternoon and this evening. 

Given the slow nature of the front, showers and thunderstorms could last well into the evening, though they'll diminish in intensity as the sun sets.  The sun's disappearance will reduce instability, which will sap the strength of any storms still wandering through the Green Mountain State. 

Not everyone will see a storm today. As always they'll be hit and miss, no matter where you are in Vermont. Many if not most places south of Route 4 might not see anything at all. 

LOOKING AHEAD

That sad excuse of a cold front will still be lingering around southern Vermont tomorrow, setting off a risk of storms there. I'm insulting the front like I am because it's not a powerhouse. It's mostly just a wind shift and a cloud generator.  

Yes, it will be noticeably cooler Tuesday, especially north, where highs might not get out of the upper 70s. But it will stay kind of humid, as there's no big push of fresh Canadian air coming in behind this thing. 

Showers and a few storms are most likely across southern Vermont with that front nearby.

The pathetic remnants of the "cold front" should move south of the region Wednesday giving us a bit of a break. But rather humid, and rather warm weather with an ever-present chance of showers and storms will probably continue into the weekend. Much of that time should stay rain-free though. 

At least the operating word here is warm, not hot. Daily highs Wednesday through Sunday should mostly make it into the low and mid 80s.