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| A patch of clearing skies over St. Albans, Vermont at 5:45 a..m, but ou can just see shower clouds over the tree line looking toward New York. A burst of rain hit not long after this photo was taken. If it clears up again later this morning, that would increase the chances of strong storms a little bit. |
As expected, rain moved over Vermont last night. Through 5 a.m., it hadn't amounted to all that much in northern Vermont.
It appears most places up there had a quarter inch or less. Southern Vermont, as expected, did better, with many places receiving a half inch or more of rain.
We are, of course, not done with the showers and storms. There were a few scattered showers and downpours wandering around the region as of 5:30 a.m., but also some breaks in the clouds.
Whether it stays more cloudier or sunnier it remains this morning will influence how wild, or not wild the weather will become this afternoon. The sunnier ir gets this morning, the more likely a few stars could become strong.
This isn't a perfect setup for severe storms. The alleged cold front coming in to spark the storms doesn't really have any cold air behind it. The lack of a temperature contrast might constrain storms a bit. But there is converging winds near the front, so that's why some thunderstorms might spark.
The air also isn't all that humid, so there's a little less fuel for strong thunderstorms than if the air was really muggy.
There is enough of a chance for strong storms that NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont under a level one out of five marginal risk for severe storms. That means we could have isolated instances of damaging winds. There's also a very slight risk of large hail, too.
The best chances of strong storms for most of us would be a little earlier than is typical - roughly between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m. The best chance of strong storms would be in the early afternoon.
We also might have a couple scattered showers or non-severe rumbles of thunder lasting into the ever.
Even though thunderstorms might have some brief downpours, I'm not really worried about flooding for this go-around.
The next issue facing us is, well, summer.
WEEKEND
Saturday and Sunday look like a typical summer weekend. It'll be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday and low to mid 80s Sunday, with an odd 87 or 88 in the very warmest Banana Belt valleys. Humidity will be noticeable but not extreme. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the mountain both days. Especially Saturday.
Some of those might try to drift into the valleys, but they'll probably tend to fall apart as they do so.
EARLY WEEK
Then we get into real heat. I don't know exactly how hot it will get, but hot enought. There's a good chance at least some of us will make it to 90 degrees. It will also be very humid, meaning the night will be stuffy.
The very warm, or hot weather with the muggy air should last most if not all of next week
Another thing to consider: The heat will be courtesy of a big "heat dome" that will set up over the eastern United States. The center of this heat dome will a little to our west. That opens us up to what are know as "ridge runners."
Ridge runners are packets of severe thunderstorms that go up and over the northern edge of the heat domes. When they start moving southeastward along the front side of the heat dome, the storms can get very feisty, sometimes dangerous.
We'll be in that spot next week. The first chance of a "ridge runner" would come later Tuesday or Tuesday night. We could have one or two more later in the week.
There's absolutely no guarantee we'll be affected by a ridge runner. They might miss us or not develop at all. You can predict the conditions that could create them well in advance. But you can't really confirm one will form or hit you until the day of the event.
And if we do, there's no guarantee we'll be hit by the severe parts of a ridge runner. But it's something to keep in the back of your mind if you don't like damaging storms.
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