A Record El Nino Has Ramped Up, So Expect A Wild Weather Ride Over The Next Year Or So

An image from August shows far warmer than normal
ocean waters in the eastern Pacific off the west coast
of South America as El Nino takes hold. Since 
August, that water has gotten even hotter. 

Climate change has made the world's weather more extreme: Worse storms, worse floods, worse droughts, weirder weather days.  

Now El Nino is starting to make everything worse. 

El Nino is now in full force,. Expect things to become especially wild for at least several months, well into next year.  Since this is uncharted territory with a record El Nino atop climate change, who knows how this will sugar off?

A statement released last week by the World Meteorological Organization  statement seems ominous: 

"'El Nino is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,' said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres."

The WMO added: 

"El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coning months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, according to a new update."

But where? And how bad?

We don't know, exactly

It won't be armageddon, as some on social media breathlessly tell us.  Many of us will be fine, just marveling at the weird, sometimes scary weather. I don't want to minimize the fact that it will be tragic for some of us. 

And it will be expensive. Likely for all of us. Exactly what we end up with is still an open question, though we can forecast some of the broad brush effects. 

WHAT EL NINO IS DOING

At first, it might seem like El Nino is doing some of us a favor. As mentioned in a previous post, the Atlantic hurricane season so far is as lame as can be. El Nino is creating strong upper level winds over the tropical Atlantic, killing off any nascent tropical storms that want to form. 

A tropical storm or hurricane could still form between now and November, but we won't have many such storms. 

The eastern Pacific ocean is another story. The eastern Pacific Ocean is alive with hurricanes. One of them, Lowell, sideswiped Hawaii earlier this week, causing extensive damage. It's the second time a hurricane had trashed parts of Hawaii.  

El Nino pushes the warmest Pacific waters moved away from Asia and toward South America. The water becomes relatively cooler near Asia and Australia. Cooler water means less evaporation. And fewer showers and thunderstorms. Droughts result in southeast Asia and Australia. Destructive wildfires tend to break out in Indonesia and Australia. 

It also tends to get dry in southern Africa, sub-Sahara Africa and Brazil during El Ninos. Wet areas are a little less certain, although the southern United States tend to get pretty wet and stormy, even including tornado outbreaks  during the winter months of an El Nino.

NOAA is also telling us it will be a warmer than average winter along the northern tier of the United States, from the Pacific Northwest to New England, which is typical of an El Nino.

 There's a bunch of wildcards, though. Other factors could bend the winter jet stream, at times defying the will of El Nino

"A strong El Nino can tilt the odds toward certain temperature and precipitation patterns across different parts of the U.S., but it doesn't determine exactly how every storm, or even the entire winter, will play out," said Crystal Egger, a meteorologist and president of Monarch Weather Consulting.

That uncertainty applies to most other places in the world. 

COSTS/EFFECTS OF EL NINO

Whatever happens, the extreme weather with an El Nino can be expensive. 

The Super El Nino could lead to immediate global financial losses of nearly $1 trillion dollars in 2027. and up to $7.2 trillion over the ensuing six years, according to a September 8 report from Oxford Economics    As reported in supplychaiinbrai.com:

"Following extreme weather disruptions, both public and private sector funds are diverted toward reparations," Oxford Economics explain."While necessary, this expenditure restores lost production capacity rather than expanding it, which can crowed out investment in infrastructure upgrades, technology, education, R&D and so on."

The cost comes from everywhere, not just the physical damage. As supplychainbrain.com notes, these weather and climate disasters make it harder and more expensive to borrow money. Homeowners and businesses fall behind on loans. Damaged or devalued property becomes poorer collateral. 

Insurance covers some losses, but those disaster make premiums more expensive and make coverage harder to find. 

It's always difficult to calculate the cost of an event that hasn't really happened yet. So take the above figures with a grain of salt. Just know that every El Nina is expensive. This one will probably be more expensive than all the others. 

Given all the unknowns, it's hard to prepare for El Nino, but people - and governments are trying anyway.

In Great Britain, residents have been urged to have enough food and water stored at home to survive a few days without power or water services

British Environmental Secretary Angela Eagle said El Nino could create ever more extreme storms than the already big storms the UK has seen in recent years. 

"If you've got a store of a bit of food that can keep you going for awhile before the emergency services can get to you,  you're going to be a lot better off than if you haven't. So some of it is that kind of preparation for just being a little more resilient," Eagle said.

Beyond that, we're not sure what will happen. There's a lot of hysterics about this El Nino. Some of it is justified.  To be blunt, people will die, crops will fail, people will go hungry. 

Until now, the strongest El Nino known to have occurred hit in 1877. Washington Post picks up the story: 

"The (1877 El Nino) fueled conditions that led to a global famine which killed more than 50 million people across India, China, Brazil and elsewhere. That's 3 to 4 percent of the estimated global population at the time, equal to at least 250 million people if it happened today."

Could it happen again?

The world is much warmer than it was in 1877, thanks to climate change. So the effects of the 2026-27 El Nino would be more extreme than the world saw 150 years. 

On the other hand, unlike in 1877, we know El Nino is coming. We have ways to prepare for droughts and extreme storms. Drought-prone areas can switch to dry tolerant crops. Resourced can be re-directed in advance to combat wildfires.  Residents of the American South can gird for flooding and severe storms this winter.

We won't be able to tie every big storm, flood or dry spell that we'll see in the coming months directly to El Nino. The only thing we can expect is a wild weather ride ov er the winter. 

Buckle your seat belts! 

Last Night's Vermont Predicted Rainfall Was A Bust, Some Showers Today, Pretty Nice Week Ahead

A sign that summer is ending The hydrangea flowers 
in my backyard are fading to pink and russet,
which is what normally happens as we head through
August and move toward September. 

A couple days ago, meteorologists all thought Vermont was in for a a good soaking rain that would have hit last night. 

So much for that. 

The forecast evolved so that newer forecasts had only northern Vermont receiving good rains. In turns out, the rain real rain stayed mostly in Quebec. Only light showers passed through the Green Mountain State. 

We've had a lot of surprises in the weather department lately. Those intense storms in northwest Vermont a week ago was the worst surprise.

I'm suspicious. I know National Weather Service meteorologists are top rate, dedicated and do the best job they can. 

My suspicious continues to be the infamous DOGE cutbacks at the National Weather Service. Those cutbacks have probably degraded the weather data meteorologists use to make their forecasts. Garbage in, garbage out. 

This is my suspicion. I have no proof. I'm hoping somebody out there is studying this, so that everybody knows the Trump administration does not care about Americans' weather safety. 

Soapbox done, on with an attempt to describe what comes next.

REST OF TODAY

It looks like a broken line of showers will start to develop along and ahead of a weak cold front sometime late this morning or around noon in northwest Vermont. Those showers will gradually strengthen. Some will become thunderstorms.

They'll probably reach peak strength roughly along a broad, fat line running between Middlebury and St Johnsbury. They won't be severe, though some could get fairly strong in the southern Champlain Valley.  This should happen around the mid and late afternoon and continue into the early evening as they head toward Rutland and White River Junction. 

After that, as the showers slowly head southeast, they'll begin to weaken. 

Rainfall in Vermont will be super variable, as they always are with summer showers and thunderstorms. a few lucky places will collect an inch of rain. Many places will see only maybe a quarter inch. It looks like some places in far northwest and in southeast Vermont might get very little rain. 

While all this is going on, the rest of today will be a muggy, but not super hot, because of the clouds. The dew point will rise to near 70 degrees, which is pretty ugly in terms of humidity. 

TOMORROW

Our cold front, it you can call it that, is really weak. So, unlike late last week, we're not going to see a huge shift in the weather. Tomorrow will be less humid, but not exactly super refreshing. It'll be kinda humid, but not terrible. Mediocre for August. 

But it will get at least partly sunny, with highs near 80 degrees, so not a bad day. 

WEDNESDAY

Another cold front will approach, but it's another lame one, and it will probably fall apart as it comes through, or at least shortly after it comes through. It'll have enough oomph to set off some showers, especially in New York and maybe western Vermont. Since the front will be falling apart, showers are less likely further east.

This is a preliminary look. Things could change with this, but we're not expecting anything dramatic. It'll still be somewhat humid, with highs again near 80.

LATE WEEK

Despite the lame nature of the cold front, it should turn less humid, definitely in the pleasant range. If this forecast works out, it'll be a nice end to the week, with highs near 80 and lows comfortably in the 50s. 

Summer is fading, as no hot spell are in the forecast. The chances of more 90 degree days are still real, but those chances are fading. 

 

Epic Flood In Midwest, Rare Hawaii Hurricane

Just one example of the big flooding in the Midwest. This
image is from the Indianapolis areas. Source: Indianpolis
Fire Department. 

While we here in Vermont enjoy tranquil weather, conditions are anything but elsewhere in the United States.

Extreme flooding and intense thunderstorms have raked the Midwest. A rare hurricane blasted the Big Island of Hawaii. 

MIDWEST FLOOD 

At least six people  have been reported dead from the flooding so far that has swept from Iowa to West Virginia. Indiana and parts of Ohio have been especially hard hit. This will easily become a disaster with damages exceeding $1 billion 

Some areas of Indiana and Ohio have received at least 11 inches of rain in the past week. 

Unprecedented flooding occurred along the Whitewater River in Dearborn County, Indiana and adjacent Hamilton County, Ohio, which is near Cincinnati.  Another waterway, the White River in Anderson, Indiana, rose to a record 24.9 feet, exceeding a flood mark that had stood since 1913.

Drone footage over Noblesville, Indiana showed the flooding from the White River. as water scraped the bottoms of bridges, and spread out through neighborhoods, woods and farmland.  ..

Near Indianapolis, the White River though town was expected to crest Saturday at 21.4 feet, though officials cautioned that continued downpours could make that crest higher. The mayor of Indianapolis said this was the worst flooding the city has seen in decade. The Indianapolis Fire Department completed 50 water rescues, evacuating 91 people an 45 pets. 

The storms produced no fewer than 38 tornadoes between August 9 and 14, mostly in a band from Nebraska to Ohio

A derecho swept across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday, August 11, causing widespread destruction.  Hundreds of thousands of people lost power. Roofs were torn from houses and countless trees fell. Winds gusted to 99 mph in Gary, Indiana.

The derecho was only one of many waves of torrential storms that swept the region. They kept coming, one after another guided by that stuck heat dome to the south. Muncie, Indiana had six inches of rain in just a day, with more than 11 inches so far this month. 

A weather phenomenon called the Ring of Fire is at the root of this flood and thunderstorm disaster

Here's how a Ring of Fire works:  A strong hot high pressure system - a heat dome - has been parked over the south central United States for at least the past week or two.  Typically,  thunderstorms and heavy rain rides along the northern edges of the heat dome. 

These storms are often severe, but since heat domes often shift around, the dangerous weather doesn't usually stay in one place for long,  so particular locations usually escape the storms within a couple days. 

 The storms produced no fewer than 38 tornadoes between August 9 and 14, mostly in a band from Nebraska to Ohio

A derecho swept across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday, August 11, causing widespread destruction.  Hundreds of thousands of people lost power. Roofs were torn from houses and countless trees fell. Winds gusted to 99 mph in Gary, Indiana.  

More than 800,000 people were left without electricity because of the derecho.  The storm created dramatic Ohio traffic camera footage of intense winds flipping a car on a highway. 

The derecho was only one of many waves of torrential storms that swept the region. They kept coming, one after another guided by that stuck heat dome to the south. Muncie, Indiana had six inches of rain in just a day, with more than 11 inches so far this month. 

This was a once in a  thousand year flood, but that might not mean much any more. Our climate is different now, for short term and long term reasons.  A super El Nino, now building to become the strongest on record, is not energizing and warming the atmosphere, helping to intensify storms. It's hard to directly link El Nino and the Midwest floods, but the two don't seem entirely coincidental.

Climate change might also have played a role. The Ring of Fire weather pattern made flooding inevitable. but climate change can help make rainstorms ever more intense. It's possible the storm would have turned already intense rains even worse. 

Today, the flash flood risk has moved into West Virginia, 

Meanwhile, in Hawaii...

HURRICANE  LALA

Flooding in Hawaii, caused by 
Hurricane Lala. Source: Aaron 
Rigsby, via Facebook

A hurricane with a fun name but deadly intentions slammed the Big Island of Hawaii this weekend. 

Hurricane was almost the first hurricane to strike the Big Island since at least 1871. But the center of the storm stayed just barely offshore.   

At least one death was reported, and at least two houses were swept off their foundations. 

Per NBC News: 

"Footage on social media showed floodwaters rising, overtaking roadways and bridges as Lala dumped rain on Hawaii's Big Island. Howling winds whipped the top of palm trees and waterways swelled with fast-moving runoff from relentless rain that blew nearly sideways." 

The storms' winds slammed into Hawaii's tall mountains, including the giant Mauna Kea volcano. The high speed air was forced to rise as it hit the mountains. That lift increased the already torrential rains. More than two feet of rain was forecast in some spots.

The storm, now a strong tropical storm, was moving generally westward, slamming the rest of the Hawaiian islands with strong winds and flooding.

Lifeguards made 59 rescues Saturday in Honolulu, where officials urged people not to get into the water this weekend. 

The National Hurricane Center predicted eight to 12 inches of rain across Maui, and four to six inches across low elevations across lower elevations of the islands.  

Hurricanes usually fade away on approach to Hawaii.  Water in the central Pacific Ocean is relatively cool, and cool-ish water takes the power away from hurricanes. 

El Nino is currently boosting water temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific to record warmth, allowing wannabe hurricanes to maintain themselves. 

Several hurricanes and tropical storms have passed very close to Hawaii in recent years, possibly reflecting warmer water created by climate change. A tropical storm in 2018 was the first one on record to strike4 Maui, but it caused only light damage. 

By far the worst hurricane in memory was Iniki, which struck the island of Kauai  in 1992. It is the only major hurricane to have hit the islands, 

 

 

Vermont Avoiding Midwest Weather Chaos, Though A Few Storms Could Rumble Through Here Today, Tomorrow

Damage from severe weather in Tinley Park, Illinois on
Tuesday. Photo via Facebook, Midwest/Great Lakes
Storm Chasers

 Midwestern storms - likely a derecho - yesterday made the violent storms that hit Franklin County, Vermont on Monday evening look like a pleasant summertime sun shower. 

The Midwestern storms caused at least three deaths, and I predict this will be another billion dollar disaster for the U.S. 

Intense thunderstorm winds swept from Iowa to West Virginia. At least six tornadoes were reported and more will emerge as National Weather Service meteorologists investigate the carnage today. Two tornadoes struck suburban Chicago, an area that has been especially raked by severe storms and tornadoes this summer.

The National Weather Service had at least 723 reports of powerful thunderstorm winds. Straight line winds gusted to over 90 mph in several Illinois towns. 

In Portage, Illinois, a house exploded because of weather related causes, killing a person there. Police officers responding to the explosion had to walk a mile to the house because fallen trees made all streets in accessible. 

There's no rest for the Midwestern weary.  Severe thunderstorms are likely today in a broad band from South Dakota and Nebraska to Indiana and Kentucky. Flash flooding is also a good bet in large parts of the Midwest over the next four days. 

Here in Vermont, we're going to just mostly watch all this from the sidelines. But we will have some showers and thunderstorms to harass us for the next couple of days. 

TODAY

Not quite as nice a Wednesday as we thought yesterday, but still pretty good. It'll be partly sunny with temperatures peaking at around 80 degrees. It's now looking like we'll have some hit and miss shower and thunderstorms across central and northern Vermont this evening. At this point it looks like maybe only 50 percent of us get wet. 

Even better: So far at least, these storms don't look l like they'll be strong. We're definitely hoping for no more surprises like we saw Monday evening. 

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT

More showers and storms are likely during Thursday and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches. Many places won't have thunder at all, or if they do, it'll be just a couple of rumbles. There's still a chance one or two storms could be strong north of Route 2, but that's really iffy. Shower chances are lower in southern Vermont. 

By the way, we're starting to get out of the season in which severe thunderstorms are most likely. Severe storm season, such as it is in Vermont is usually from around Memorial Day to early August. We can still get severe thunderstorms into September, but the chances of that happening are now much lower than they were at the peak of summer. 

FRIDAY

The first hint of autumn of the season. Well see brisk northwest winds and partly sunny skies. There could be some brief light showers over the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. Highs should reach the 70s, with maybe a few upper  60s in higher towns north and some remote areas of the Northeast Kingdom

SATURDAY

A beauty! After a cool start with readings in the low 50s at dawn, we should see sunshine with highs in the 70s. Rock bottom humidity, too

SUNDAY

Some changes to the previous forecast, as it might not be as nice as we initially hoped.  Another disturbance in the fast west to east flow looks like it could spread some rain and showers our way. Southern Vermont in particular might see a good soaking rain, which would be great since they've mostly been missing out on the showers and storms lately. They could really use the rain.

The path and orientation of this weather system is still in question, so expect some changes to the forecast. 

Clear Skies In Vermont Yield To Long, Humid Spell Of Florida Weather. When Will It End? We Have Clues

A summer rarity. Yesterday afternoon's satellite photo
shows cloudless skies in northern New England, New York
and southern Ontario and Quebec. You see hints of 
wildfire smoke in Quebec. It's rare to see such a huge
area of cloudless skies in the summer. The afternoon
heat usual generates at least a few cumulus clouds

Believe it or not, yesterday was a weird weather day in Vermont.

It didn't seem weird. Just gorgeous. The odd part was the clouds. Or lack thereof. We spent the whole day in the Green Mountain State without a cloud in the sky. There were just the faintest hint of wildfire smoke, but that's it. 

We do have absolutely clear days in the spring and fall. Even, sometimes, in the winter. But cloudless summer skies are rare. There's usually enough lift in the atmosphere created by the heat of the day to generate at least a few puffy clouds over the mountains. 

Yesterday, nothing. No complaints, though it was a glorious summer day. 

Our cloudless days are over, thanks to the well-advertised burst of high humidity coming in starting today and intensifying Thursday. 

That miserable weather looks like it will stay with us until the early part of next week. There is hope, eventually that this will end. Keep reading and we'll tell you when

TODAY

Actually, still not bad. As far as clouds go, there will be some high clouds which will signal the more humid air coming in. And maybe a few puffy cumulus clouds over the mountains. But still, the sunshine will dominate. The humidity will be a higher than yesterday, but still not extreme. Highs in most places should get well into the 80s, so today is a great beach day. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Ugh, High humidity, partly cloudy skies and highs in the 80s.  Since the air will be like what Florida sees in the summer, we'll have Florida weather. That means scattered showers and thunderstorms, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Unlike Florida, Vermont has mountains. The hillsides will create updrafts that will help trigger the storms, so most - but not all - of the activity will be near the mountains. 

Not everybody will see a shower or storm. They will be hit and miss. Those that get hit will see a briefly cooling torrential downpour, but the mugginess will return fast. Unfortunately the nights will be stuffy as hell.

SATURDAY

More ugh.  This could change, but it appear showers and storms might be a little more widespread that the previous days. Dew points will still be in the miserable low 70s. That'll be the third day in a row of that kind of super high humidity, which is very unusual in Vermont. 

SUNDAY

More of the same? Really? Looks that way. If we're lucky, the dew point might drop by a couple points, but it will still remain horribly humid. We also have a shot at a mostly rain-free day, but that's still iffy at this point. 

NEXT WEEK

The week starts with more of the same, but the temperatures might be only near 80, instead of the low 80s. The humidity will still be awful but then --- a change in the weather!!

Signs are pointing toward notably cooler and much less humid air toward the end of next week. And that cooler regime might last quite awhile, if iffy long range forecasts are correct. The weather during that cool down might still be unsettled with a risk of showers. But at least we'll be able to sleep at night for a change. 

Enjoy This Brief Sort Of Coolish Spell In Vermont This Morning; Tropical Week Ahead

Ever so briefly, the sky took on an autumnal look late
yesterday afternoon as a brief cooler, less humid
blast of air took over in Vermont. The rest of the
week will be very warm, with increasing humidity

 It turns out almost everybody got some rain in Vermont yesterday as a solid line of showers and thunderstorms crossed the state yesterday. That was followed by stiff brought stiff breezes made it actually feel cool outside last evening. 

Most places in Vermont were in the 50s this morning, with low 60s in the Champlain Valley. 

As we get through today, this sort of  coolish spell is over, for quite a long time. Let's get into it.

TODAY

The good news is the humidity stays fairly low. So as sunshine boosts temperatures into the 80s, it won't feel too terrible. The dew point, a rough measure of how sticky it feels out there, will hover near  60 degrees. That's not a totally refreshing level, but it will do. 

WEDNESDAY

A little hotter a little more humid. Dew points will be in the low 60s as afternoon temperatures climb well into the 80s. Sunshine will continue, so if you have the opportunity, it's a good beach day. We're into August, so there might not be too many such days left. Leap at this chance for fun in the sun.  Just be sure to OD on the sunscreen, please. 

THURSDAY-FRIDAY

Tropical humidity with a good chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. We'll have to watch on Thursday whether the instability might be robust enough for some strong storms. This will be a winner/loser type situation, as some areas will get drenched by torrential downpours while other areas get little or nothing. 

We might also have to watch out for isolated instances of flash flooding once again, since the storms might not move all that fast. We won't have anything widespread in the high water department, it's just something to watch. 

WEEKEND

Still muggy with a risk of storms. But the weather pattern will have rearranged itself slightly so that we'll be in a battleground between the oppressive Bermuda High and an autumn-ish storm up by Hudson Bay. That means little weather disturbances will fling themselves through New England in a fast flow within this battleground. 

Hard to say when we'll get some rain and storms and when it will be dry. It's also impossible to say how impressive or wimpy the rain an storms will be. For now, file next weekend under he "iffy" category.

NEXT WEEK

It seems like the storm up in Canada might slowly gain more influence over us here in the North Country. If that happens, we'll gradually lose the humidity but will keep the chances of showers going. Hard to say for sure because forecasts beyond five days are often not very accurate. But this attempt at a forecast is your hope we lose all that sticky, gross air that we're going to deal with. 

July 2026 in Vermont Was Mostly Humid, And Stormy

Stormy skies over Lake Champlain in July. The month
of July was relatively hot and quite stormy across Vermont.

 Not that you need reminding, but July in Vermont this year was humid, stormy and kind of hot. 

As measured in Burlington, the average temperature was 73.7 which was 1.3 degrees above normal. That doesn't sound like July was that hot,  but it was the 15th hottest July out of the past 136 years of reliable records. 

I always have to throw in this caveat. Normal nowadays is not your grandfather's average Vermont weather. 

 "Normal" temperatures are based on the average of what we saw between 1990 and 2020, when climate change had already taken hold. 

If this July happened in the 1970s or something like that, July would have been about four degrees above average. Hot Julys have become the norm in Vermont. Six of the top 10 hottest Julys have hit since 2018. 

Overall, the rest of northern Vermont was warm and dry, though it was paradoxically a humid and stormy sort of dry. In other words, not all that much rain came out of those muggy and roiling skies.

Weather stations across northern Vermont reported a monthly average temperature of a little more than a degree above normal.

Burlington had 3.18 inches of rain, which was nearly an inch below average. That turned out to be the 61st driest July out of the past 144 years of reliable records. Most of the northern two thirds of the state were dry, too. Given the fact that showers and storms tend to make summer rainfall highly variable, there were pockets of above normal precipitation. 

Montpelier's rainfall was 4.74 inches of rain in July, which was about a half inch above normal, But 2.45 inches of that came in one ferocious thunderstorm on July 9,

When you got toward southwestern Vermont, it was a little cooler than the modern average, and on the wet side. Bennington's average July temperature was almost a degree cooler than normal, Bennington also had 6.45 inches of rain, which was 1.8 inches above normal,

Much like in Montpelier, Bennington's wet month was due to one storm. They had 3.75 inches of rain on July 28-30, as they were on the edge of that epic storm that caused extreme flooding in New York's Hudson Valley. 

That same storm dumped over five inches of rain on some towns in the far southern Green Mountains. 

STORMY MONTH

The first half of the month was especially stormy. 

July got off to a literal bang on the first day of the month. Hot, oppressively humid weather help light up the sky with waves of severe thunderstorms. The worst of the storms sprung up abruptly in the Champlain Valley, leaving a trail of damage across northern and central Vermont into New Hampshire. 

An area around Underhill, Westford, Essex and Cambridge suffered especially severe damage.  Another wave of storms later that night filled the sky with continuous lightning

On July 9 storms blasted across northern Vermont, especially up in the Northeast Kingdom, nailing areas around Burke Mountain with intense microbursts. Flash flooding hit the area around Barre, but luckily, the flooding was much less severe that the past three Julys. 

Vermont braced for a severe storm and oddly strong tornado threat on July 14 into the early morning hours of July 15. Wildfire smoke squelched many would-be storms, so the problem wasn't as widespread as feared. 

However, supercell thunderstorms spewing microbursts caused lots of damage in a stripe northwest to southeast through Rutland and Windsor counties. 

On July 16, showers and storms developed along a weak southward moving cold front. The storms looked lame on radar, but the gust front packed quite a punch. More trees fell across northern Vermont.

Also, wildfire smoke made an appearance in Vermont, as I alluded to above. The worse of it was at mid-month when some big fires flared up in Ontario and northern Minnesota. Those fires tapered off later in the final weeks of July, so the smoke thinned, too. Just some haze from blazes in the western United States. 

Looking ahead to August, NOAA is predicting a hot month for most of the nation. However, the forecast gives equal chances of above or below normal temperatures in an area from the Great Lakes through the Northeast, including Vermont. 

NOAA is leaning ever so slightly on the wet side, so that's essentially a toss-up, too 

Vermont Remains On The Edge Of Wild Weather Pattern; Slight Flood Threat But Not As Bad As Further 'South

The first rains of our wet period are seen yesterday
over Lake Champlain near Alburgh. Some areas of
Vermont will see a couple inches or more of rain, with
a localized flood threat. The Northeast Kingdome
looks like it will largely miss out

 As you've seen in the headlines, there's been a lot of rough weather in the United States this summer. 

One long stripe of the nation has really gotten nailed. It goes from Minnesota and Wisconsin, through the Great Lakes, into the Ohio Valley and finally the Mid-Atlantic States.

That zone has repeatedly gotten some horrible thunderstorms and even tornadoes. Repeatedly. With no real end in sight.

Yesterday, a nasty tornado swept through parts of northeast Wisconsin, trashing large sections of Menasha, Neenah and Appleton.  Also Monday, severe thunderstorms packing 80 mph winds and possible tornadoes harassed the Chicago area. Flooding was also reported. 

Today, severe thunderstorms will hit the Mid-Atlantic states again. More flash flooding is a risk, too, especially in the New York City metro area. 

 Here in Vermont, we've mostly gotten glancing blows from all this wild, weird summer weather. Sometimes, it does mange to hit us, like when we had that pair of tornadoes in June, or those destructive microbursts in the Northeast Kingdom and southern Vermont earlier this month. But we haven't gotten the worst of it in the Green Mountain State. 

This time around, we're on the edge of the "fun" today and tomorrow. We don't have to worry about severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding is a bit of a threat, especially in southern Vermont, but - fingers crossed - this doesn't look like it will be anything widespread or super destructive.

Though I'm pretty relaxed about the forecast, this kind of weather system can pull surprises. Things won't turn out exactly as the current predictions. I'll give it a go as to what will happen, based on what the National Weather Service is telling us this morning. 

TODAY

Forecasted rain fall through Friday morning, from the
National Weather Service. Note that rainfall 
amounts will be more variable than depicted here. 

There were some showers and thunderstorms and downpours yesterday, mostly in the Adirondacks, bu they were pretty widely scattered. 

That kind of stuff will be more widespread today. Especially the further west and south you go.

Based on radar images at 9 a.m. today. you'd think a big dose of needed rain would be starting in Vermont very soon. There was a big stripe of rain, with a few embedded downpours in the central Adirondack, extending down to places just west of Albany, New York.

But this stuff was just barely crawling eastward. And it looks like it will weaken as it does so.

However, more showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as that slow weather system continues to press grudgingly eastward today. 

It will probably rain most places today, though showers and thunderstorms will be especially hit and maybe mostly miss in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Areas south and west of Interstate 89 have the best chance of seeing rain and downpours, possibly multiple hits. That's especially true down in far southern Vermont and up toward  Albany/Glens Falls/Lake George, New York and on its the Adirondacks, 

This area has the best chances of local flash floods today, though I'd emphasize that the chances of that happening are pretty low. Mostly because it's been so dry lately. Still, if any one place gets nailed by numerous downpours, one right after the other, then there could be a local high water problem

TONIGHT

Showers and storms will continue off an on. Since the wet airflow will come from the south and east, off the Atlantic, the best chance of heavier rain is on the east slopes of the southern Green Mountains and in the east slopes of the Adirondacks. 

Again, no widespread flooding, but there could be a pocket here or there the could have a creek or small stream overflow enough to damage a gravel road or driveway, or possibly damage a particularly unlucky  house. 

WEDNESDAY

By tomorrow morning, the center of our sluggish storm will be somewhere in the general vicinity of New York City, give or take. That set up will keep sending waves of showers northward into Vermont.  Again, the best chance of heavier rain is in southern Vermont. And maybe the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains maybe as far north as Sugarbush. 

If any flooding happens, it'll be in southern Vermont, especially in the steep slopes of the southern Greens. Again, so far at least, we're not expecting anything widespread. Definitely not a repeat of 2023, as it looks now. Even so, the creeks, small streams and brooks in southern Vermont especially will need to be watched. 

A saving grace is it looks like it will be too cloudy and too cool to allow any torrential thunderstorms to develop. So rainfall rates won't be as likely to produce flash flooding as we would see with a lot of thunderstorms. 

Once again, he Northeast Kingdom looks like it will be more protected from the rains. The White Mountains of New Hampshire might help block some of the Atlantic Ocean moisture that will be flowing into New England. 

THURSDAY

The stupid, slow, meandering storm will begin to depart. We'll still have some showers around, but the risk of heavy rain will diminish.

As noted, the rainfall will be super variable. One town might see more than two or even three inches of rain out of this, while a few towns over will see maybe a half inch to an inch. 

Broad brush, many areas south of Route 4 should get more that two inches of rain between now and Thursday. Some spots in the southern Green Mountains could easily go past three inches, maybe even approach four inches in isolated spots.

Central Vermont in general would receive one to 1.5 inches. Most of northern Vermont should receive an inch or less. Some places in the Northeast Kingdom could easily receive less than a half inch of rain, 

So, some places in Vermont will get too much rain, while other places not enough, It's still very dry in  northern Vermont, so a half inch of rain won't cut it. We'll need more, But at least the rain will cut back a burgeoning fire hazard. Brush fires were reported in recent days in Essex Junction and Fairfax. There probably were a few other small blazes breaking out in other parts of the state. 

Fortunately for the north and unfortunately for soon to be soggy southern Vermont, the weather pattern looks pretty active, though slow moving.  There's another potentially wet system that might come at us later Sunday or Monday. 

A Wet Spell Coming To Vermont: Some Risk Of Flash Flooding; Far North Might Miss Out

National Weather Service forecast map. Through Thursday
morning. If this forecast holds, the southern half of 
Vermont would get more than an inch of rain, with
local amounts much higher. Northern Vermont 
looks like it will get less. 

Today is dawning as it did the past couple of days, sunny, a little hazy from atmospheric wildfire smoke in the air.  

According to WCAX meteorologist Gunnar Consul said that Sunday was the exact midpoint between Burlington's average last and spring snowfall. So, we're in the midsummer doldrums. 

Which means slow moving, sluggish weather systems. 

For most of us, today will be a relatively nice day. But if you were a geek watching weather radar yesterday, you saw some slow moving showers and thunderstorms in the Adirondacks. There's not much motion of the atmosphere so they kind of sat there. 

The same state of affairs will happen today, and that introduces a rainy stretch that will lead to the risk of some localized flooding over the next few days. I'm absolutely not in panic mode like I was before  the big summer floods of 2023 and 2024. 

This episode doesn't look nearly as dire as that, unless there's some incredible surprise all the meteorologists are missing. But be on the lookout for the risk of some local flash flood problems that might erupt between today and Thursday.  

TODAY

The local flash flood risk starts today, almost exclusively in the Adirondacks. And maybe the western side of Lake Champlain in New York. That said, the chances of that happening are low. I just mentioned it because storms that develop won't move much. So they could dump huge amounts of rain in very small, pinpoint areas. That can be dangerous within the steep slopes of the Adirondacks.  

Here in Vermont, we'll watch the storms erupt here and there to our west, on the other side of Lake Champlain. Eventually, later this afternoon and early evening, a few showers or storms will erupt in Vermont, too. Most of us will stay dry and enjoy a nice day. Maybe 30 percent of us will get some rain by sunset. 

Because storms will be few and far between, it will get well into the 80s again today. 

TUESDAY

A much better chance of showers and thunderstorms, at least in the western half of the area. The disturbance causing the showery weather will have moved only slightly east. 

So there's an excellent chance of rain in southwest Vermont and New York. Much of central Vermont and the Champlain Valley has a very good chance of showers and storms. Again, since all the showers and storm will be moving very slowly, and some will contain torrential downpours.  All but the far Northeast Kingdom is under a marginal, level one of four risk of local flash floods. 

Northeastern Vermont should get through the day with just widely scattered showers and storms, so there risk os lover there. 

Again, this won't be a widespread problem. Since there will be sunshine, too, most of us should get into the low and mid 80s. The humidity will have risen somewhat, too. So it will be a partly cloudy, hazy, muggy day with the ever-present chance of showers and storms especially south and west of Interstate 89

WEDNESDAY

This will be the day with the best chance of rain. A nearly stalled weak but very wet storm will wander somewhere around New England and New York. This will set up a wet flow of air from the southeast - off the Atlantic Ocean - will push into New England, including Vermont. The heaviest rain will fall in southern Vermont, especially along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

We'll have to watch whichever spots ended up with the heaviest rainstorms on Tuesday will have to be watched for local flash floods. All but far northern Vermont is once again in a marginal, level one out of four on the risk scale. Areas in far southern Vermont - along Route 9 - are in a level 2 slight risk zone, as is most of southern New England. 

Areas in far northern Vermont that really need the rain look like they might miss out. It will rain up there. Any rain is good, but as it looks now, it probably won't be a deep soaker. 

Rainfall will be highly variable as it always is with showers and thunderstorms. In general, current forecasts give southern Vermont an inch or two of rain, with generally an inch in central Vermont. Far northern Vermont looks to receive only a half inch or so. Nice, but not enough.

Overall, with all the clouds and rain, it will be cool, but humid, with temperatures hovering in the 70s

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

Lingering showers and rumbles of thunder as that slow, rambling storm slowly leaves. So it will be an unsettled, iffy day. Some showers might linger into Friday. But warm, rather sunny, kind of humid weather will linger Friday and Saturday. Another sluggish system looks like it might arrive Sunday with more showers and storms. 

Severe U.S. Storms Since June Have Yielded Destruction, And Dramatic Videos.

Severe flooding last week in West Virginia. As you can 
tell from the videos in this post, it has been a stormy
summer in the United States. 

This summer seems like it's been a particularly stormy one. 

It seems every time I turn around, there's more news articles about tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, microbursts and flash floods. 

More floods and storms are on the horizon in the South, Midwest and parts of the Northeast in the coming days. 

But here's a visual look back, midway through this turbulent summer. 

As always, we have bunch of videos to share, to show you that whatever bad weather you've had this summer, somebody else had it worse. 

We'll start back on June 8, in Kansas.  Straight line winds were reported gusting as high as 113 mph last Salinas, Kansas. 

I don't think the video captures the peak of the storm, but it still looks strikingly like a hurricane. In Kansas. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

There's usually still plenty of tornadoes across the United States in Juneau.   Skydrama Weather Co tracked a few tornadoes across northern Missouri on June 10.  Always interesting to see the shapeshifting tornadoes how they go from one form to the next.  This is one of those shiftshapers. The end of the video shows a beautiful, strange blue and purple supercell coming into Kirksville, Missouri. The blue indicates lots of hail in the storm.

As always, click on this link to view, of if you see the image below, click on that. 

Skydrama Weather Co has more tornado footage, this from a June 11 tornado outbreak in Illinois. They caught several tornadoes I'm struck by how fast their forward speed was, especially the large tornado that opens the clip. Click in this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that 

From Brian Emfinger, we have a video from a drone taken on June 11 showing a narrow, drill bit style tornado, going through fields and solar farms in Ipava, Illinois. Luckily, the tornado is weak, as it only damages a few solar panels. 

Eventually the tornado goes into the town itself, but again, weak enough to cause little damage. Still, it's a fascinating video.  Much more destructive tornadoes struck Illinois and Indiana that day. 

Click on this link to view the drone clip of the tornado or if you see the image below, click on that. 

The Fourth of July brought lots of strong and severe thunderstorms that swept through the eastern United States over the holiday. 

One of the storms hit Lititz, Pennsylvania as the city geared up for their Fourth of July. It looks like it was one of those deals where people get there early, stake their places with blankets and belongings, and wander around to enjoy the day's festivities. 

Then a severe thunderstorm blew in. Good luck figured out who set things where. As you'll see in the video, it was a mess, to put it mildly. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

On July 6, the eastern United States were still going full steam. Torrential storms caused damaging flash flooding in New Jersey. 

Part of the roof of a BJ's Warehouse in Ocean Township, collapsed under the weight of the torrential downpours. Miraculously, nobody was seriously injured, including the older man in the video who was swept to the side by water, display tables and debris. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In early July, Super Typhoon Bavi hit the island of Rota in the Northern Mariana Island with 180 mph sustained winds. As you would imagine, the destruction was basically total.

Click on this link to view how bad a Category 5 typhoon can be. Or, if you see the image below, click on that

Brian Emfinger bring us a video, mostly drone footage, of the aftermath of an extreme flash flood near Lesterville, Missouri. A foot of rain fell in just a few hours, creating an extreme flash flood that swept through a campground. In looks like at least a couple dozen people were rescued from roofs including some where were stranded atop a collapsed building 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Large fires broke out in Ontario, Canada recently, as we know from the wildfire smoke that has drifted in recent weeks across southeast Canada and the northern and eastern United States.  This video shows Canadian National Railway Company (CN Rail) on the tracks near Armstrong, Ontario as flames surrounded them. I'm struck by how calm the narrator with his Canadian accent inside the train.

Click here to see the video, or if you see the image below click on that. 

Severe storms unleashes extreme flash flooding Tuesday in West Virginia. The disaster reminded me of what happened across Vermont in July, 2023. It was that bad. Even the West Virginia landscape looks similar to Vermont.  

The Associated Press has an overview video. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Tropical Storm Bertha formed a few days go and sort of bounced westward along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper level winds prevented the storm from amounting to much. Winds never got above 50 mph, and most of the rough weather stayed offshore 

Unlike a previous tropical storm named Arthur in mid-June, Bertha appears to have caused relatively little damage. Arthur caused torrential rains and severe floods, causing four deaths and at least $1 billion in damage. 

Still, Bertha caused its share of trouble. On Dauphin Island, Alabama, high storm tides shifted sand, trapping cars.  People who tried to drive over sandbars that formed over local roads also soon became trap, as a Live Storms Media video shows. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

The same flood event in West Virginia: A flash flood crashes through the ground floor of a Hilton hotel in Weston, West Virginia. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Another Nice Day Yields To An Iffy Today In Vermont Then Sweet Summer Weather To Return

A widespread severe weather outbreak is likely today in 
the Mid-Atlantic states. Vermont should be on the
edge of it, with just a marginal risk of strong storms. 

 Monday was another gorgeous day across Vermont. After a cool start, the day warmed into the low 80s. as expected. There was only a slight haze of wildfire smoke so air quality was OK. 

Today, we are going to largely escape a nasty severe weather outbreak in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. 

Much like last Saturday, the severe weather is likely in western New York all the way down to Tennessee and North Carolina. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky have a high chance of severe storms and even scattered tornadoes. 

Up here in Vermont, much like this past Saturday, we'll be on the edge of it. The atmosphere is conspiring against much weather violence in the Green Mountain State. That said, there's a marginal, level one out of five alert level of severe storms in most of Vermont later today. 

Back on Saturday, we were in the same situation, with lots of severe storms to our south and west, and we were on the edge of it. The National Weather Service was predicting some risk of severe storms in Vermont, which never materialized as conditions remained cool, cloudy and smoky. 

Unlike last Saturday, there are a few breaks in the clouds today, and the smoke is much thinner than it was on Saturday, as noted. 

Last Saturday, temperatures hovered in the 60s most of the afternoon, which is usually too chilly to support severe weather.   

Today is warmer, as highs should reach well into the 70s to low 80s. Also, like on 'Saturday, it will get more and more humid as we go through the day.  So I think we have a decent shot at thunderstorms. But not a widespread severe event. 

Judging from satellite photos this morning, the old remnants of previous thunderstorms, now decayed, should arrive to cloud up Vermont's skies, limiting the instability in the air just when you need sunshine the most to power up thunderstorms 

There could be showers anytime today, but it looks like they will be pretty scattered until mid or late afternoon and into the evening, when the showers and storms should come through in earnest. Although there a decent area of rain did blossom in southern Vermont during the mid-morning. 

That's when we could see the risk of a few widely scattered strong to borderline severe storms, though I'd emphasize the majority of us won't see anything that dramatic. Some places might hardly see any kind of showers or storms, 

For those of you wanting a nice, soaking rain, this won't be the wettest summer storm system ever. On average, southern Vermont might see a half inch of rain, northwest Vermont a third of an inch, with the Northeast Kingdom seeing less than a quarter inch. 

That's just broad brush. As is always the case with showers and storms, some towns will be big winners with over an inch of rain, while some other communities get sprinkles or light showers, It's impossible to tell in advance exactly who gets what in these situations. 

TOMORROW

We're not quite out of the shower and storm risk. The last of a series of weak weather fronts should cone through midday as a cold front. This should power up some scattered showers and storms.  The usual hit and miss routine. It looks like the timing of the front will be such that the storms will just be beginning to fire up in Vermont when peak afternoon instability begins to hit. 

For now, it looks like none of the storms will become severe until they reach New Hampshire and Maine, and southern New England. Even there, we see only a marginal, level one out of five risk for nasty storms there.

We should still see highs within a few degrees either side of 80 before the chillier air comes in. 

THURSDAY

Back to a hint of autumn, kinda, sort of. In any event, it should be a beautiful day. Sunny to partly cloudy and breezy, with rock bottom humidity with highs in the 70s. 

FRIDAY-SUNDAY

Another nice weekend! We've had a few of those this summer, which is definitely fortunate. Friday and Saturday will feature cool, calm mornings. Sunday morning will be a little warmer, but still comfortable. 

If the forecast holds, highs will be in the 80s, but trending a few degrees warmer each day, starting with low 80s Friday to upper 80s Sunday. 

This Year, No Repeat Of The Traditional July 10 Vermont Flood Disaster; Hot Weather Continues

Lillies soak up this morning's sun this morning in St.
Albans, Vermont. They'll likely soak up some rain
from showers and storms later today and tonight, 

 It reached 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on Wednesday. the eighth time this year it's been at least 90 degrees. 

Summer is only about half over and already, we're among only 42 years out of the past 127 with that many 90s.  However, we're not on pace for any kind of record. In 1949, Burlington endured 26 days in the 90s.

This is the 12th consecutive year with at least eight days in the 90s.  We hadn't come close to a streak like that in the past. Another little sign that our planet is warm. 

There's a chance it could be 90 degrees today, but I think clouds, showers, thunderstorms and humidity might prevent it from getting that hot. 

We're also coming up on July 10. For three years in a row, starting in 2023, Vermont faced serious flooding on that date. This year, it looks highly unlikely. And if there are any floods, it would happen late this afternoon or evening, not tomorrow.  And more importantly, any water trouble would be very minor. 

Let's explain through the details. 

TODAY

It's going to be pretty hot, humid with a risk of thunderstorms today. The storms will hit mostly the northern half of the state, and not everyone will see a shower or storm. Typical summer weather. 

There's a weak cold front lurking in southern Quebec.  As is often the case with lame summer cold fronts, there's a disturbance out ahead of it known as a pre-frontal trough. 

The pre-frontal trough is often most responsible for severe thunderstorms ahead or a cold front. However, this time, the chances of severe storms are relatively low. 

Clouds creeping in today could reduce instability. There's some smoke in the air, too, which sometimes reduces instability a little. Still, it's humid out there and the day is starting out sunny. 

The bottom line is a few storms could become strong to severe, but it won't be anything widespread like those wild storms on July 1. 

Northwestern Vermont is under a marginal risk of severe storms today. That's level 1 out of 5 alert status. That means maybe isolated severe weather. I think that low-level risk should extent throughout northern Vermont, but that's just my gut feeling.

Given the fact it's humid and getting more humid, some of the storms could produce torrential rains. Those gully washers will be pretty localized.  And they shouldn't last especially long in any one place. I suppose there might be a few minor washouts on some steep gravel driveways and along the edges of gravel roads.

 It's true that NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has northern Vermont under a marginal risk for flash floods, but this won't be a big worry. We're not gearing up for another July 10. (I know it's July 9, but the effects would last into July 10). 

After the shower and storms late this afternoon, we should have a lull before showers and a few storms hit again overnight with the actual cold front. Again, nothing to worry about. Aside from maybe some minor erosion at the edges of a couple roads, we should be OK. 

I just hope I didn't jinx everything by being this reassuring, but I, and the real meteorologists looking at this situation, just don't see any signs to create an alarm over this. 

FRIDAY

The front will continue to move south. Showers will linger during the morning, especially south. But in the afternoon, you'll notice a change in the air as the humidity gradually blows out of the state behind the front. Highs should generally be in the low 80s.

WEEKEND

Friday's cold front sets us up for a fantastic weekend. Probably the best summer weather weekend of the year. We'll have warm daytime highs, comfortable nights and low humidity. And the sun will generously shine both days.  Highs will be near 80 Saturday and in the low to mid 80s Sunday. Overnight lows will be generally between 55 and 62 degrees. 

You can't have absolute perfection, however. We have additions to the smoke being generated by fires in central Canada and the western U.S.  Wildfires have reinvigorated south of James Bay, Canada and new ones have broken out in northern Quebec.

At the very least, there will probably be some haze in the air over the weekend. It's hard to say at this point how thick that might become. We'll keep you posted as we get closer to the weekend. 

NEXT WEEK PEEK

The first half of next week should be hot again. A heat dome in the middle of the nation will temporarily stretch eastward, bringing the hot air in.  The heat might be interrupted by disturbances carrying showers and storms, but that's still iffy.

After midweek, the heat dome will move west. That will open the door to a potentially fairly long spell of cool air that would start midweek and go on for possibly several days. 

Heat Wave Still On For Vermont, Rest Of Easter U.S. Uncertain Chances For Vermont Severe Storms

Looking north from St. Albans, Vermont, showers and a few
thunderstorms could be seen trying to develop in Quebec
but dry air and a lack of instability made them sputter.
However, during our upcoming heat wave, we will
need to look toward Quebec as that's where potential
severe or torrential thunderstorms would come from.

 After a gorgeous and quite warm Sunday, today will be your last day for quite awhile to enjoy tolerable weather in Vermont. 

It'll be even warmer than yesterday, with the banana belt valleys expected to reach the upper 80s. The dew point, a general indicator of how humid it feels, will be near 60 today, so it will feel slightly more humid than Sunday. 

Then the fun really begins. Even though we know it will be hot and very humid this week and that thunderstorms are a good bet, there's still questions about exactly how hot it will get in Vermont. 

There's even bigger questions as to the extent of the thunderstorms. We do have  a risk of severe storms and localized flash flooding. Let's taking it day by day, as we usually do. 

We already covered today, so let's start with:

Tuesday.

You'll feel the air get noticeably more humid and icky as the day goes as the heat dome starts to assert itself. Because of some cloud cover, we'll probably fall short of 90 degrees in most of the state. But by late in the day, the dew point should be near 70 degrees, so it will feel steamy for sure

As we've been mentioning for the past several days, we'll be prone to those packets of "ridge runner" thunderstorms coming up and over the northern edge of the heat dome and then coming down across Vermont from Quebec.

Figuring out what time theses storms would come through aad exactly where they hit is futile more than a few hours in advance. If any of these come through tomorrow afternoon or evening, some could be severe with strong damaging winds, hail and torrential rains. 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center a marginal, level 1 out 5 risk of severe storms in Vermont and New York.  The SPC says all the ingredients are there for big storms, but it just depends whether a trigger will set them off or not. 

"Trends in guidance will need to be monitored,:" the SPC said in its description of the threat. That's NOAA speak for we might have to upgrade the risk lel, but we want to see more data before pulling that trigger..

If storms come through late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, they're less likely to be severe, but they would contain a lot of lightning, and worse, torrential downpours. We'll have to be on our toes for the risk of local flash floods

Wednesday

Hot and humid, with a storm risk at any time, especially in the afternoon and evening. In the past, we've often had loud, soaking thunderstorms around dawn in the opening day of big heat waves, especially in northern Vermont. So based on experience, there's a chance the day might start off pretty noisily. 

If storms come through in the mid and late morning and early afternoon instead, we would  hold temperatures down into the 80s to near 90 with horrible humidity. 

But the better chance is more storms would hold off  until later in the afternoon, which would mean highs in the low to mid 90s, with that steamy, stuffy air. 

The National Weather Service  in South Burlington is considering issuing heat advisories or warnings in Vermont. They're just waiting for more "guidance" as we mentioned above from computerized forecasting data.

Such torrid, steamy air gives us a chance of strong or severe storms and torrential rains. All we need is a trigger. Those "ridge runners" will still be a threat, diving down from Quebec. While you're roasting your butt off, be on the alert for severe storms and local flash flooding.

Thursday

Likely the worst day of the heat. Again, unless storms coming in during the late morning or early afternoon to block the sun, we will all get into the 90s. There's still a chance some valleys in southeast Vermont could touch 100 degrees. 

The ever-present chance of strong thunderstorms continues, but I'm guessing the chances of that are slightly lower Thursday. 

Friday.

Same exact story. 'Nuff said.

Weekend

It's either going to be very warm and humid but slightly more bearable or the torrid weather will continue. 

Some computer models drop daytime temperatures into the mid and upper 80s and send dew points down into the mid and upper 60s. That's an improvement, I suppose, but it will still feel icky and not what we hope for in a Vermont summer weekend. . 

Other models keep the 90+ degree heat going with ridiculous humidity. 

Either way, it looks like a weak weather front will lurk somewhere over us or nearby over the weekend, continuing the risk of severe storms an local flash floods.

So, yeah, we have a crappy week coming up in the Green Mountain State. Enjoy! 

 

Enjoy The Low Humidity, Extreme Humidity, Torrid Heat, Storms On The Way To Vermont

National Weather Service heat risk map for this coming
Thursday. Click on the map to make it bigger and 
easier to see. Purple is extreme heat and risk. Dark red
is major heat. I don't remember the last time I've
seen so much purple in the heat risk map. Also
notice the flecks of purple even in Vermont. 

Saturday was another perfect summer weather day in Vermont - mostly sunny, a nice breeze, low humidity some pretty clouds. 

This morning dawned clear and cool. Temperatures were in the 50s statewide.  Despite all the rain lately, we've had a fair number of days like this in the late spring and early summer this year.

One thing that I knew we'd lose eventually is the clear, unpolluted skies that allowed us an unrestricted view of the Green Mountains and hills, shimmering green as far as the eye can see.

Now, this morning, I notice wildfire smoke beginning to creep in. To nobody's surprise due to a deep drought in the Rocky Mountains, large wildfires have broken out, especially in Utah.  There's also fires burning in a long stripe from Alaska, through central Canada to central and northern Quebec. So far, it's not nearly as bad up there as in recent years, but they're burning.

The smoke has to go somewhere, and sometimes it ends up in New England.   

There is smoke visible on the satellite photos this morning in Quebec and northern Vermont. It's not enough to harm air quality, but the air will probably look kind of hazy, especially north. For the rest of the summer and into the early autumn, we are going to continue to see some hazy days because of this. Not everyday, but the chances of crystal clear air has diminished until autumn rains and snows really hit.

Smoke is the least of our worries at this point, though. We've got a volatile week coming up that features high heat, even  higher humidity and a volatile atmosphere that could trigger more rounds of severe storms. 

TODAY:

Another beauty. Sunshine with low humidity and highs in the low 80s most places, with a few upper 70s northern hills and maybe a few mid 80s in the warmest banana belt town in the Champlain Valley and southeast Vermont.  

So it'll be a perfect day to do anything Vermonty, hike, bike, hit the garden, play softball or frisbee,  go to the beach, fall asleep on a hammock, get a maple creemee. It should be illegal to stay indoors on a day like today. 

Like yesterday, you can even lay in a grassy field and watch the puffy clouds billow up over the mountains. You know, that cloud looks like a dog, that other one looks like an ice cream cone, that third cloud looks like Weird Al Yankovic. You get the idea.

The only potential problem is a very weak disturbance that could touch off an isolated shower or garden variety thundershower near the Canadian border. No biggie.

MONDAY

One last nice day. Dawn will bring more cool air, with temperatures in the 50s to around 60.  Under sunny skies, it will get well into the 80s Warmer towns will be around 87, 88 or even 89 degrees, so pretty damn warm. But the humidity will stay low, so it will be quite tolerable out there.

TUESDAY

A transition day as the hot, humid air begin to roll in. Dawn might still be comfortably dry, but by afternoon and evening you should really start to feel the humidity. Highs should get into the 80s again. No 90s yet because of clouds and a risk of showers and thunderstorms. 

WEDNESDAY. 

A real wild card, with some questions in the forecast. Will the hot air really get in here full force? Meteorologist are leaning toward a  "yes" answer. If it does, temperatures will soar well into the 90s. Since we'll be near the edge of the torrid, muggy air, instability in the atmosphere could be almost off the charts. Some high altitude, shifting winds could enter the picture. If that happens, we could be looking at severe thunderstorms. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington notes that some models keep the hottest, most humid air off a little to our southwest Wednesday. In that case, it would still be very warm and somewhat humid, but not killer hot and without the lightning bolts, dark clouds and potential high winds nipping at our heels.

THURSDAY

This is the day Vermont is most likely to take par in the nasty heat dome that's setting up. Many cities in the Midwest and up and down the East Coast should get over 100 degrees. The forecast high Thursday in Boston and New York is around 103. Washington DC is forecasting 104. 

I wouldn't be surprised if a 100 degree reading or two snuck in to southeastern Vermont. If that happens, it'll be two years in a row with 100 degree heat in the Green Mountain State. Such heat is rare, but I guess it's becoming less so in our age of climate change.

Forecasts have the rest of Vermont well into the 90s. As of today, forecasted highs Thursday are 97 in Burlington, 95 in Montpelier, 96 in Rutland and 98 in Springfield. 

The only caveat to this is there are almost always weak ripples of energy in the atmosphere. If one comes through Thursday afternoon, that would spark a bunch of thunderstorms that would cool the air a little but do nothing to help with the humidity. 

FRIDAY

Temperatures are forecast to be in the 100s again up and down the East Coast. Vermont might get vague relief from an approaching very lame cold front that would hold temperatures down to the low 90s. Um, yay? We'll wait and see on that. 

I'm sort of making light of all this heat coming out way, but seriously, this will be dangerous. Nights will be very warm and muggy, offering little relief from the daytime torrid weather. This state of affairs goes on for at least a few days The cumulative effects of the hot air over days can kill vulnerable people .

Unfortunately deaths from the heat are already a foregone conclusion in the Midwest and East due to the extreme nature of the upcoming hot spell. Let's hope the victims don't include Vermonters. 

NEXT WEEKEND

A potential "cold snap"! By that I mean daytime temperatures would "only" reach the 80s to around 90 with continued rather high humidity.