King Tides, Big Storms, Giant Floods: El Nino Is Already Taking A Huge Toll, And It Will Get Worse

Flooding in McCaysville, Georgia last week. A string of 
flood disaster over the past month from California to 
Florida is just the beginning of what is shaping up to
be a horrifically destructive Super El Nino winter. 

 The southwest and southeastern parts of the nation are cleaning up from flood disasters in the past couple of weeks caused by nation's first major encounters with the ongoing super El Nino. 

Coastal areas, especially in California, are cleaning up after record sea levels flooded hundreds if not thousands of homes and businesses.  The same problem hit parts of Florida. 

Then, storms caused intense, destructive, sometimes record flooding in both the southwestern U.S. and in Florida. Then later in northern Georgia and southeast Pennsylvania. 

The extreme weather had tapered off by Tuesday, but these are likely the opening salvos in a very rough weather winter. 

 KING TIDES 

King Tides hit yearly, when the moon is a little closer to Earth than usual. That makes the pull of the tides stronger and higher. Climate change has raised sea levels, making flooding from King Tides a problem that now hits a few times of year. 

In California, the King Tides hit atop a Kelvin Wave. .   

A Kelvin Wave, which elevates sea levels, is underway along the California coast, The wave elevates sea levels by six to 12 inches. The King Tide, combined with the Kelvin Wave, caused record flooding.  

Around Loa Angeles and San Diego, tides reached eight feet, shattering records and sending water through neighborhoods and major thoroughfares, like the Pacific Coast Highway. This was the worst of many high tide events around Loa Angeles this year. The city has had 12 coastal flood days in 2026. That has already outpaced any year out of the past 50. And there's two months to go this year. 

This time around, record flooding hit California coastal communities, damaging at least hundreds of homes and businesses. In one spot, the high tide covered the Pacific Coast Highway in Huntington Beach. ,. Video showed makeshift sea walls made of sand bags and plastic, while water entered numerous SoCal homes. 

 Further north, San Francisco endured its highest tide ever seen during the month of October.  A kayaker was spotted along a flooded section of the normally traffic-jammed 101 freeway. 

In Florida, the problem wasn't a Kelvin Wave, but an easterly wind flow that piled water along the coastline just as the King Tides hit. 

Virginia Key, which ia a barrier island near Miami, saw its highest King Tide and the third-highest water level since records started 30 years ago. 

Video showed water flooding streets and lapping against homes and businesses in cities like Daytona Beach and Fort Lauderdale. The video showed cars driving through the salt water flooding. 

Which is bad. Because TVs, golf cars and scooters are especially susceptible to salt water flooding.  Lithium ion batteries exposed to salt water can start fires days or even weeks after being exposed to salt water. 

After last week's flooding King Tides, the moon phases are changing, reducing the destructive King Tides for now.  King Tides hit when the moon is a little closer to Earth than usual, causing tides to rise to higher levels. 

But as destructive as the coastal flooding was last week, it might only be a foretaste of what's to come. More King Tides are coming, and those might well be accompanied by big storms, which would greatly exacerbate the damage. 

Some of the storms have already hit in the past week or so, carrying intense, record flooding. 

Flash floods extended across most of Arizona, from Flagstaff in the north to Tucson in the south. 

Flagstaff had 3.37 inches of rain on Sunday, the third wettest day on record for the city. Flagstaff has already had its wettest meteorological autumn and there's still three weeks to go. (Meteological autumn runs from September 1 and November 30. Since September 1, Flagstaff has had 13.15 of rain since September 1. 

A a result, water coursed through streets and homes. Unfortunately, the flooding killed two people in the city. 

Elsewhere, on the weekend of October 23, the resort town of Pagosa Springs, Colorado, was inundated and badly damaged by downpours and intense flooding. The San Juan River crested at 15.02, nearly three feet higher than a damaging flood in August. 

But that was only the beginning. The even more ferocious storm this past weekend, pushed the San Juan river to a crest of 16.81 feet, making it the second highest flood crest there, just short of a 1911 flood. 

Luckily, the crest fell short of an expected 22 feet. But between October's flood and this one, the destruction was still extreme. At least one house was seen falling into the river and floating downstream before disintegrating against a bridge. 

People were reported stranded in Durango and other towns.  People were evacuated from several counties in southwest Colorado as creeks and rivers burst their banks. 

Durango is a big tourist town, with plenty of condos and hotels. At one lodging, the Junction Hotel and Hostel, water filled the parking lot and first floor rooms.

FLORIDA

 Next up was southeast and parts of eastern Florida, especially around Brevard County

Two people have been reported dead because of the flooding. 

The flooding was widespread and exceptionally damaging, especially since it hit such a heavily populated area. AccuWeather estimates damage at between $3 billion and $5 billion. 

On Tuesday, in a single day, Melbourne received 11.51 inches of rain. On November 2-3, Palm Bay had 14.19 inches of rain.  2 

Storm totals included a whopping total of 28.93 inches in Malabar and 28.13 oil he's in Palm Bay. The flooding was so bad that there had to be Election Day polling changes in severe Florida counties. 

The terrain is pretty flat, so the water wasn't able to drain well. So it lingered in some neighborhoods for days. 

Most schools in Brevard County were closed for at least three days. Some schools opened on the first day of the downpours, and buses had to somehow return students home later in the day on flooded streets. One viral video showed a student being let off into thigh-deep flood waters in Port St. Lucie. 

In an interview, the teen caught in the flooding said he was frightened by the experience, and his father said the school system should have planned out things better. El Nino is creating new challenges everywhere. 

 TENN/GA FLOODING

Some of the floods we've been seeing have been unexpected. Early Thursday, six to 11 inches of rain fell near the Tennessee and Georgia border. The rain pushed the Ocoee River to a record 18.05 feet. The previous record crest was 17.8 feet in 1990, and the river is around 2.5 feet on a normal day. 

The flooding nearly completely trashed the adjacent small cities of McCaysville, Georgia and Copperhill, Tennessee. Some people were rescued from roofs. A 90 year old woman stood on the kitchen table in her flooded home for gawd knows how long until she was rescued. 

So far,  one person has been killed in this flooding. 

Like so many of these storms lately, this flood was considered a one in one thousand year event. Also like other storms, the area punished by this flood was slammed by an inundation almost as bad just three months ago.

That will make recover that much harder because nobody has money left from the last disaster. 

The storm that hit Georgia and Tennessee ended up going up the East Coast, causing additional flooding Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The New England flooding wasn't nearly as bad as that in Georgia, but streets in Falmouth and nearby communities were under more than a foot of water

MUCH MORE TO COME

El Nino continues to strengthen. The northern hemisphere storms are taking on their winter characteristics, and will continue to become more powerful, as they do in the winter. 

The winter storms will get supercharged by El Nino, so it's clearly going to be a rough weather winter.

King Tides will return later this month and in December. If they're accompanied by one or more of those gigantic Pacific storms that often hit during those months, the destruction might be far beyond what we saw in October.

El Nino years often feature flooding rain storms, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, especially along the Gulf Coast and in Florida. Some of the those powerful storms take a turn northward, up the Eastern Seaboard, causing high winds and heavy rain or snow.

It's impossible to predict when such storms will blow through and exactly how they'll behave. 

Just expect a long winter. 

 

Arizona, Other Sections Of U.S. Reeling From Past Week's Storms. A Harbinger Of A Violent El Nino Winter?

People soak in a pool that was being
threatened by record flooding in
Pagosa Springs, Colorado last week

An early season storm last week prompted Arizona's first tornado warning in 16 years, produced at least three tornadoes, and set off gorilla hailstorms and flooding. 

At least three suspected tornadoes hit Arizona. The worst appears to be in Overgaard, a town of about 3,000 people roughly 140 miles north of Phoenix. 

Roofs of home were torn off and trees crashed through other roofs.  

In Phoenix, there were no tornadoes, but intense thunderstorm winds and large hail caused widespread, severe damage, especially in the northern half of the city. The hail broke countless windows, smashed zillions of car windshields and left vehicles hopelessly dented. Video showed parking lots full of cars destroyed by hail up to the size of baseballs. 

Strong winds also torn apart numerous trees. Phoenix easily suffered many millions of dollars in damage in just one storm. Maybe over $1 billion.  Another Phoenix hailstorm in 2010 caused $2.7 billion in damage. 

In southern California, violent storms also hit. Video captured swirling debris in Victorville, which makes me suspect at least a weak tornado. Other areas in the Los Angeles basin saw hail, flooding downpours and wind damage. 

Severe flooding hit the Four Corners region, the area where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah meet. The flooding began in earnest Wednesday and continued the rest of the week. 

Intense flooding also hit southwest Colorado.

Per CBS:

"Video shared with CBS Colorado shows a Pagosa Springs house inundated with floodwaters. All that can be seen is a small piece of the roof and the chimney."

 Other houses were inundated or being undermined by water. This is the second damaging flood in Pagosa Springs within a  year.  The San Juan river crested ago 15.02 feet Friday, compared to 12.8 feet during last year's flood. 

Hurricane, Utah had its second severe flood since August. One family had just moved back into their house three weeks ago after it was damaged by flooding, only to have it inundated again 

The area is known as a resort with popular hot springs. Almost all the hotels and tourists attractions are on higher ground and suffered little damage.

EL NINO INFLUENCE

It's beginning to look like a wild El Nino all and winter is already have an effect. It's unclear whether the violent weather is related to El Nino, but it is consistent with the pattern that's widely expected this winter. 

As NPR reports: 

"Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, says the severe thunderstorms are ruled by the large amount of moisture in the air. He says the moisture comes from the record-warm waters off parts of the West Coast, which are drive by an ongoing strong El Nino event and a recent marine heat wave (which he attributes largely to human-caused climate change)."

The West Coast and parts of the Southwest - along with most of the rest of the southern United States - is bracing for a terribly stormy winter, courtesy of the record strong El Nino. 

Already, another strong, wet storm looks like it might slam into the southern California coast, and then spread more heavy air into the Southwest in about a week. 

 

"Kelvin Wave" The Latest Meteorological Buzz Word: What To Worry About. Spoiler: Very Little For Most Of Us

A schematic showing how a Kevin waves work. In this
case it's a bulge of warm water and and a temporary
sea level rise of at least six inches rise that can 
exacerbate coastal flooding. 

Polar Vortex. Heat Dome. El Nino. Bomb Cyclone.

Lots of weather buzz words have come up in recent years. The terms have become bogeymen in social media, becoming monsters lurking to kill us all at the right moment. Even if all to these aren't exactly the end of the world. 

Now we have another one. Kelvin waves. 

Before we get into it, I'll be honest. A Kelvin wave along the West Coast won't affect you much at all, unless you live or work right along the ocean front.  

Kelvin waves are huge slow-moving pulses of warm subsurface ocean water that travel along the equator until they smack against a coastline.

They form when trade winds slow down or stop. This Kelvin wave in the Pacific is reinforcing the current record breaking El Nino. It moved westward across the Pacific before smacking into the west coast of South America. 

From there, the Kelvin waves moved both north and south. One batch moved southward along the South American coast. The other went north along the Mexican coast and the on to the U.S. West Coast.

The Kelvin wave has moved as far north as around San Francisco so far.  

Kelvin waves are not something anyone can see. They're just a subtle, huge ridge in the water. 

The Associated Press explains further: 

"Kelvin waves are not like tsunamis, and they don't curl over and crash on the beach. A better image is water sloshing in the bathtub or a swimming pool during an earthquake.

In the ocean, they are bulges of water that lift the sea level as they move along the coast. They're common during El Nino event, but this year's El Nino could intensify the impacts, experts say."

The six inch to foot tall surge is moving north along the California coast and will eventually raise water levels somewhat in Oregon and Washington, too.The Kelvin wave now hitting the West Coast has the potential for worsening coastal flooding, There's no real storm this week along the California coast, but there's been some swells from distant hurricanes. 

Last month, while the Kelvin wave was building, , elevated sea levels and waves from offshore Hurricane Marie caused destructive waves along the southern California coast, especially around Long Beach. 

There's nothing especially damaging going on now. So this particular Kelvin wave isn't likely to cause an enormous amount of damage. 

But the risk isn't over.

The current Kelvin wave is the first of what will probably be several such waves between now and about next February. El Ninos typically produce five or six of these, and the one ongoing now is only the first. 

Even before any Kelvin waves hit, the sea level is already elevated due to climate change. The risk is when new Kelvin waves hit when high astronomical "King Tides." and strong storms hit at the same time. 

That kind of triple attack would cause a ton of damage along the California coast.

King Tides are expected on November 24-26, December 23-25 and January 21-22.  

El Ninos have historically unleashed a series of severe storms onto the California coast.  Imagine if, say, over the Christmas holiday, there is a Kelvin wave, a King Tide and a severe storm all hitting at the same time. 

That's what keeps emergency managers up at night. 

El Nino is looming. There's no guarantee California will succumb to severe storms, high, damaging tides and battering waves.  But it's definitely something to prepare for.  

A Record El Nino Has Ramped Up, So Expect A Wild Weather Ride Over The Next Year Or So

An image from August shows far warmer than normal
ocean waters in the eastern Pacific off the west coast
of South America as El Nino takes hold. Since 
August, that water has gotten even hotter. 

Climate change has made the world's weather more extreme: Worse storms, worse floods, worse droughts, weirder weather days.  

Now El Nino is starting to make everything worse. 

El Nino is now in full force,. Expect things to become especially wild for at least several months, well into next year.  Since this is uncharted territory with a record El Nino atop climate change, who knows how this will sugar off?

A statement released last week by the World Meteorological Organization  statement seems ominous: 

"'El Nino is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,' said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres."

The WMO added: 

"El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coning months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, according to a new update."

But where? And how bad?

We don't know, exactly

It won't be armageddon, as some on social media breathlessly tell us.  Many of us will be fine, just marveling at the weird, sometimes scary weather. I don't want to minimize the fact that it will be tragic for some of us. 

And it will be expensive. Likely for all of us. Exactly what we end up with is still an open question, though we can forecast some of the broad brush effects. 

WHAT EL NINO IS DOING

At first, it might seem like El Nino is doing some of us a favor. As mentioned in a previous post, the Atlantic hurricane season so far is as lame as can be. El Nino is creating strong upper level winds over the tropical Atlantic, killing off any nascent tropical storms that want to form. 

A tropical storm or hurricane could still form between now and November, but we won't have many such storms. 

The eastern Pacific ocean is another story. The eastern Pacific Ocean is alive with hurricanes. One of them, Lowell, sideswiped Hawaii earlier this week, causing extensive damage. It's the second time a hurricane had trashed parts of Hawaii.  

El Nino pushes the warmest Pacific waters moved away from Asia and toward South America. The water becomes relatively cooler near Asia and Australia. Cooler water means less evaporation. And fewer showers and thunderstorms. Droughts result in southeast Asia and Australia. Destructive wildfires tend to break out in Indonesia and Australia. 

It also tends to get dry in southern Africa, sub-Sahara Africa and Brazil during El Ninos. Wet areas are a little less certain, although the southern United States tend to get pretty wet and stormy, even including tornado outbreaks  during the winter months of an El Nino.

NOAA is also telling us it will be a warmer than average winter along the northern tier of the United States, from the Pacific Northwest to New England, which is typical of an El Nino.

 There's a bunch of wildcards, though. Other factors could bend the winter jet stream, at times defying the will of El Nino

"A strong El Nino can tilt the odds toward certain temperature and precipitation patterns across different parts of the U.S., but it doesn't determine exactly how every storm, or even the entire winter, will play out," said Crystal Egger, a meteorologist and president of Monarch Weather Consulting.

That uncertainty applies to most other places in the world. 

COSTS/EFFECTS OF EL NINO

Whatever happens, the extreme weather with an El Nino can be expensive. 

The Super El Nino could lead to immediate global financial losses of nearly $1 trillion dollars in 2027. and up to $7.2 trillion over the ensuing six years, according to a September 8 report from Oxford Economics    As reported in supplychaiinbrai.com:

"Following extreme weather disruptions, both public and private sector funds are diverted toward reparations," Oxford Economics explain."While necessary, this expenditure restores lost production capacity rather than expanding it, which can crowed out investment in infrastructure upgrades, technology, education, R&D and so on."

The cost comes from everywhere, not just the physical damage. As supplychainbrain.com notes, these weather and climate disasters make it harder and more expensive to borrow money. Homeowners and businesses fall behind on loans. Damaged or devalued property becomes poorer collateral. 

Insurance covers some losses, but those disaster make premiums more expensive and make coverage harder to find. 

It's always difficult to calculate the cost of an event that hasn't really happened yet. So take the above figures with a grain of salt. Just know that every El Nina is expensive. This one will probably be more expensive than all the others. 

Given all the unknowns, it's hard to prepare for El Nino, but people - and governments are trying anyway.

In Great Britain, residents have been urged to have enough food and water stored at home to survive a few days without power or water services

British Environmental Secretary Angela Eagle said El Nino could create ever more extreme storms than the already big storms the UK has seen in recent years. 

"If you've got a store of a bit of food that can keep you going for awhile before the emergency services can get to you,  you're going to be a lot better off than if you haven't. So some of it is that kind of preparation for just being a little more resilient," Eagle said.

Beyond that, we're not sure what will happen. There's a lot of hysterics about this El Nino. Some of it is justified.  To be blunt, people will die, crops will fail, people will go hungry. 

Until now, the strongest El Nino known to have occurred hit in 1877. Washington Post picks up the story: 

"The (1877 El Nino) fueled conditions that led to a global famine which killed more than 50 million people across India, China, Brazil and elsewhere. That's 3 to 4 percent of the estimated global population at the time, equal to at least 250 million people if it happened today."

Could it happen again?

The world is much warmer than it was in 1877, thanks to climate change. So the effects of the 2026-27 El Nino would be more extreme than the world saw 150 years. 

On the other hand, unlike in 1877, we know El Nino is coming. We have ways to prepare for droughts and extreme storms. Drought-prone areas can switch to dry tolerant crops. Resourced can be re-directed in advance to combat wildfires.  Residents of the American South can gird for flooding and severe storms this winter.

We won't be able to tie every big storm, flood or dry spell that we'll see in the coming months directly to El Nino. The only thing we can expect is a wild weather ride ov er the winter. 

Buckle your seat belts! 

Last Night's Vermont Predicted Rainfall Was A Bust, Some Showers Today, Pretty Nice Week Ahead

A sign that summer is ending The hydrangea flowers 
in my backyard are fading to pink and russet,
which is what normally happens as we head through
August and move toward September. 

A couple days ago, meteorologists all thought Vermont was in for a a good soaking rain that would have hit last night. 

So much for that. 

The forecast evolved so that newer forecasts had only northern Vermont receiving good rains. In turns out, the rain real rain stayed mostly in Quebec. Only light showers passed through the Green Mountain State. 

We've had a lot of surprises in the weather department lately. Those intense storms in northwest Vermont a week ago was the worst surprise.

I'm suspicious. I know National Weather Service meteorologists are top rate, dedicated and do the best job they can. 

My suspicious continues to be the infamous DOGE cutbacks at the National Weather Service. Those cutbacks have probably degraded the weather data meteorologists use to make their forecasts. Garbage in, garbage out. 

This is my suspicion. I have no proof. I'm hoping somebody out there is studying this, so that everybody knows the Trump administration does not care about Americans' weather safety. 

Soapbox done, on with an attempt to describe what comes next.

REST OF TODAY

It looks like a broken line of showers will start to develop along and ahead of a weak cold front sometime late this morning or around noon in northwest Vermont. Those showers will gradually strengthen. Some will become thunderstorms.

They'll probably reach peak strength roughly along a broad, fat line running between Middlebury and St Johnsbury. They won't be severe, though some could get fairly strong in the southern Champlain Valley.  This should happen around the mid and late afternoon and continue into the early evening as they head toward Rutland and White River Junction. 

After that, as the showers slowly head southeast, they'll begin to weaken. 

Rainfall in Vermont will be super variable, as they always are with summer showers and thunderstorms. a few lucky places will collect an inch of rain. Many places will see only maybe a quarter inch. It looks like some places in far northwest and in southeast Vermont might get very little rain. 

While all this is going on, the rest of today will be a muggy, but not super hot, because of the clouds. The dew point will rise to near 70 degrees, which is pretty ugly in terms of humidity. 

TOMORROW

Our cold front, it you can call it that, is really weak. So, unlike late last week, we're not going to see a huge shift in the weather. Tomorrow will be less humid, but not exactly super refreshing. It'll be kinda humid, but not terrible. Mediocre for August. 

But it will get at least partly sunny, with highs near 80 degrees, so not a bad day. 

WEDNESDAY

Another cold front will approach, but it's another lame one, and it will probably fall apart as it comes through, or at least shortly after it comes through. It'll have enough oomph to set off some showers, especially in New York and maybe western Vermont. Since the front will be falling apart, showers are less likely further east.

This is a preliminary look. Things could change with this, but we're not expecting anything dramatic. It'll still be somewhat humid, with highs again near 80.

LATE WEEK

Despite the lame nature of the cold front, it should turn less humid, definitely in the pleasant range. If this forecast works out, it'll be a nice end to the week, with highs near 80 and lows comfortably in the 50s. 

Summer is fading, as no hot spell are in the forecast. The chances of more 90 degree days are still real, but those chances are fading. 

 

Epic Flood In Midwest, Rare Hawaii Hurricane

Just one example of the big flooding in the Midwest. This
image is from the Indianapolis areas. Source: Indianpolis
Fire Department. 

While we here in Vermont enjoy tranquil weather, conditions are anything but elsewhere in the United States.

Extreme flooding and intense thunderstorms have raked the Midwest. A rare hurricane blasted the Big Island of Hawaii. 

MIDWEST FLOOD 

At least six people  have been reported dead from the flooding so far that has swept from Iowa to West Virginia. Indiana and parts of Ohio have been especially hard hit. This will easily become a disaster with damages exceeding $1 billion 

Some areas of Indiana and Ohio have received at least 11 inches of rain in the past week. 

Unprecedented flooding occurred along the Whitewater River in Dearborn County, Indiana and adjacent Hamilton County, Ohio, which is near Cincinnati.  Another waterway, the White River in Anderson, Indiana, rose to a record 24.9 feet, exceeding a flood mark that had stood since 1913.

Drone footage over Noblesville, Indiana showed the flooding from the White River. as water scraped the bottoms of bridges, and spread out through neighborhoods, woods and farmland.  ..

Near Indianapolis, the White River though town was expected to crest Saturday at 21.4 feet, though officials cautioned that continued downpours could make that crest higher. The mayor of Indianapolis said this was the worst flooding the city has seen in decade. The Indianapolis Fire Department completed 50 water rescues, evacuating 91 people an 45 pets. 

The storms produced no fewer than 38 tornadoes between August 9 and 14, mostly in a band from Nebraska to Ohio

A derecho swept across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday, August 11, causing widespread destruction.  Hundreds of thousands of people lost power. Roofs were torn from houses and countless trees fell. Winds gusted to 99 mph in Gary, Indiana.

The derecho was only one of many waves of torrential storms that swept the region. They kept coming, one after another guided by that stuck heat dome to the south. Muncie, Indiana had six inches of rain in just a day, with more than 11 inches so far this month. 

A weather phenomenon called the Ring of Fire is at the root of this flood and thunderstorm disaster

Here's how a Ring of Fire works:  A strong hot high pressure system - a heat dome - has been parked over the south central United States for at least the past week or two.  Typically,  thunderstorms and heavy rain rides along the northern edges of the heat dome. 

These storms are often severe, but since heat domes often shift around, the dangerous weather doesn't usually stay in one place for long,  so particular locations usually escape the storms within a couple days. 

 The storms produced no fewer than 38 tornadoes between August 9 and 14, mostly in a band from Nebraska to Ohio

A derecho swept across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday, August 11, causing widespread destruction.  Hundreds of thousands of people lost power. Roofs were torn from houses and countless trees fell. Winds gusted to 99 mph in Gary, Indiana.  

More than 800,000 people were left without electricity because of the derecho.  The storm created dramatic Ohio traffic camera footage of intense winds flipping a car on a highway. 

The derecho was only one of many waves of torrential storms that swept the region. They kept coming, one after another guided by that stuck heat dome to the south. Muncie, Indiana had six inches of rain in just a day, with more than 11 inches so far this month. 

This was a once in a  thousand year flood, but that might not mean much any more. Our climate is different now, for short term and long term reasons.  A super El Nino, now building to become the strongest on record, is not energizing and warming the atmosphere, helping to intensify storms. It's hard to directly link El Nino and the Midwest floods, but the two don't seem entirely coincidental.

Climate change might also have played a role. The Ring of Fire weather pattern made flooding inevitable. but climate change can help make rainstorms ever more intense. It's possible the storm would have turned already intense rains even worse. 

Today, the flash flood risk has moved into West Virginia, 

Meanwhile, in Hawaii...

HURRICANE  LALA

Flooding in Hawaii, caused by 
Hurricane Lala. Source: Aaron 
Rigsby, via Facebook

A hurricane with a fun name but deadly intentions slammed the Big Island of Hawaii this weekend. 

Hurricane was almost the first hurricane to strike the Big Island since at least 1871. But the center of the storm stayed just barely offshore.   

At least one death was reported, and at least two houses were swept off their foundations. 

Per NBC News: 

"Footage on social media showed floodwaters rising, overtaking roadways and bridges as Lala dumped rain on Hawaii's Big Island. Howling winds whipped the top of palm trees and waterways swelled with fast-moving runoff from relentless rain that blew nearly sideways." 

The storms' winds slammed into Hawaii's tall mountains, including the giant Mauna Kea volcano. The high speed air was forced to rise as it hit the mountains. That lift increased the already torrential rains. More than two feet of rain was forecast in some spots.

The storm, now a strong tropical storm, was moving generally westward, slamming the rest of the Hawaiian islands with strong winds and flooding.

Lifeguards made 59 rescues Saturday in Honolulu, where officials urged people not to get into the water this weekend. 

The National Hurricane Center predicted eight to 12 inches of rain across Maui, and four to six inches across low elevations across lower elevations of the islands.  

Hurricanes usually fade away on approach to Hawaii.  Water in the central Pacific Ocean is relatively cool, and cool-ish water takes the power away from hurricanes. 

El Nino is currently boosting water temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific to record warmth, allowing wannabe hurricanes to maintain themselves. 

Several hurricanes and tropical storms have passed very close to Hawaii in recent years, possibly reflecting warmer water created by climate change. A tropical storm in 2018 was the first one on record to strike4 Maui, but it caused only light damage. 

By far the worst hurricane in memory was Iniki, which struck the island of Kauai  in 1992. It is the only major hurricane to have hit the islands, 

 

 

Vermont Avoiding Midwest Weather Chaos, Though A Few Storms Could Rumble Through Here Today, Tomorrow

Damage from severe weather in Tinley Park, Illinois on
Tuesday. Photo via Facebook, Midwest/Great Lakes
Storm Chasers

 Midwestern storms - likely a derecho - yesterday made the violent storms that hit Franklin County, Vermont on Monday evening look like a pleasant summertime sun shower. 

The Midwestern storms caused at least three deaths, and I predict this will be another billion dollar disaster for the U.S. 

Intense thunderstorm winds swept from Iowa to West Virginia. At least six tornadoes were reported and more will emerge as National Weather Service meteorologists investigate the carnage today. Two tornadoes struck suburban Chicago, an area that has been especially raked by severe storms and tornadoes this summer.

The National Weather Service had at least 723 reports of powerful thunderstorm winds. Straight line winds gusted to over 90 mph in several Illinois towns. 

In Portage, Illinois, a house exploded because of weather related causes, killing a person there. Police officers responding to the explosion had to walk a mile to the house because fallen trees made all streets in accessible. 

There's no rest for the Midwestern weary.  Severe thunderstorms are likely today in a broad band from South Dakota and Nebraska to Indiana and Kentucky. Flash flooding is also a good bet in large parts of the Midwest over the next four days. 

Here in Vermont, we're going to just mostly watch all this from the sidelines. But we will have some showers and thunderstorms to harass us for the next couple of days. 

TODAY

Not quite as nice a Wednesday as we thought yesterday, but still pretty good. It'll be partly sunny with temperatures peaking at around 80 degrees. It's now looking like we'll have some hit and miss shower and thunderstorms across central and northern Vermont this evening. At this point it looks like maybe only 50 percent of us get wet. 

Even better: So far at least, these storms don't look l like they'll be strong. We're definitely hoping for no more surprises like we saw Monday evening. 

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT

More showers and storms are likely during Thursday and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches. Many places won't have thunder at all, or if they do, it'll be just a couple of rumbles. There's still a chance one or two storms could be strong north of Route 2, but that's really iffy. Shower chances are lower in southern Vermont. 

By the way, we're starting to get out of the season in which severe thunderstorms are most likely. Severe storm season, such as it is in Vermont is usually from around Memorial Day to early August. We can still get severe thunderstorms into September, but the chances of that happening are now much lower than they were at the peak of summer. 

FRIDAY

The first hint of autumn of the season. Well see brisk northwest winds and partly sunny skies. There could be some brief light showers over the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. Highs should reach the 70s, with maybe a few upper  60s in higher towns north and some remote areas of the Northeast Kingdom

SATURDAY

A beauty! After a cool start with readings in the low 50s at dawn, we should see sunshine with highs in the 70s. Rock bottom humidity, too

SUNDAY

Some changes to the previous forecast, as it might not be as nice as we initially hoped.  Another disturbance in the fast west to east flow looks like it could spread some rain and showers our way. Southern Vermont in particular might see a good soaking rain, which would be great since they've mostly been missing out on the showers and storms lately. They could really use the rain.

The path and orientation of this weather system is still in question, so expect some changes to the forecast. 

Clear Skies In Vermont Yield To Long, Humid Spell Of Florida Weather. When Will It End? We Have Clues

A summer rarity. Yesterday afternoon's satellite photo
shows cloudless skies in northern New England, New York
and southern Ontario and Quebec. You see hints of 
wildfire smoke in Quebec. It's rare to see such a huge
area of cloudless skies in the summer. The afternoon
heat usual generates at least a few cumulus clouds

Believe it or not, yesterday was a weird weather day in Vermont.

It didn't seem weird. Just gorgeous. The odd part was the clouds. Or lack thereof. We spent the whole day in the Green Mountain State without a cloud in the sky. There were just the faintest hint of wildfire smoke, but that's it. 

We do have absolutely clear days in the spring and fall. Even, sometimes, in the winter. But cloudless summer skies are rare. There's usually enough lift in the atmosphere created by the heat of the day to generate at least a few puffy clouds over the mountains. 

Yesterday, nothing. No complaints, though it was a glorious summer day. 

Our cloudless days are over, thanks to the well-advertised burst of high humidity coming in starting today and intensifying Thursday. 

That miserable weather looks like it will stay with us until the early part of next week. There is hope, eventually that this will end. Keep reading and we'll tell you when

TODAY

Actually, still not bad. As far as clouds go, there will be some high clouds which will signal the more humid air coming in. And maybe a few puffy cumulus clouds over the mountains. But still, the sunshine will dominate. The humidity will be a higher than yesterday, but still not extreme. Highs in most places should get well into the 80s, so today is a great beach day. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Ugh, High humidity, partly cloudy skies and highs in the 80s.  Since the air will be like what Florida sees in the summer, we'll have Florida weather. That means scattered showers and thunderstorms, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Unlike Florida, Vermont has mountains. The hillsides will create updrafts that will help trigger the storms, so most - but not all - of the activity will be near the mountains. 

Not everybody will see a shower or storm. They will be hit and miss. Those that get hit will see a briefly cooling torrential downpour, but the mugginess will return fast. Unfortunately the nights will be stuffy as hell.

SATURDAY

More ugh.  This could change, but it appear showers and storms might be a little more widespread that the previous days. Dew points will still be in the miserable low 70s. That'll be the third day in a row of that kind of super high humidity, which is very unusual in Vermont. 

SUNDAY

More of the same? Really? Looks that way. If we're lucky, the dew point might drop by a couple points, but it will still remain horribly humid. We also have a shot at a mostly rain-free day, but that's still iffy at this point. 

NEXT WEEK

The week starts with more of the same, but the temperatures might be only near 80, instead of the low 80s. The humidity will still be awful but then --- a change in the weather!!

Signs are pointing toward notably cooler and much less humid air toward the end of next week. And that cooler regime might last quite awhile, if iffy long range forecasts are correct. The weather during that cool down might still be unsettled with a risk of showers. But at least we'll be able to sleep at night for a change. 

Enjoy This Brief Sort Of Coolish Spell In Vermont This Morning; Tropical Week Ahead

Ever so briefly, the sky took on an autumnal look late
yesterday afternoon as a brief cooler, less humid
blast of air took over in Vermont. The rest of the
week will be very warm, with increasing humidity

 It turns out almost everybody got some rain in Vermont yesterday as a solid line of showers and thunderstorms crossed the state yesterday. That was followed by stiff brought stiff breezes made it actually feel cool outside last evening. 

Most places in Vermont were in the 50s this morning, with low 60s in the Champlain Valley. 

As we get through today, this sort of  coolish spell is over, for quite a long time. Let's get into it.

TODAY

The good news is the humidity stays fairly low. So as sunshine boosts temperatures into the 80s, it won't feel too terrible. The dew point, a rough measure of how sticky it feels out there, will hover near  60 degrees. That's not a totally refreshing level, but it will do. 

WEDNESDAY

A little hotter a little more humid. Dew points will be in the low 60s as afternoon temperatures climb well into the 80s. Sunshine will continue, so if you have the opportunity, it's a good beach day. We're into August, so there might not be too many such days left. Leap at this chance for fun in the sun.  Just be sure to OD on the sunscreen, please. 

THURSDAY-FRIDAY

Tropical humidity with a good chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. We'll have to watch on Thursday whether the instability might be robust enough for some strong storms. This will be a winner/loser type situation, as some areas will get drenched by torrential downpours while other areas get little or nothing. 

We might also have to watch out for isolated instances of flash flooding once again, since the storms might not move all that fast. We won't have anything widespread in the high water department, it's just something to watch. 

WEEKEND

Still muggy with a risk of storms. But the weather pattern will have rearranged itself slightly so that we'll be in a battleground between the oppressive Bermuda High and an autumn-ish storm up by Hudson Bay. That means little weather disturbances will fling themselves through New England in a fast flow within this battleground. 

Hard to say when we'll get some rain and storms and when it will be dry. It's also impossible to say how impressive or wimpy the rain an storms will be. For now, file next weekend under he "iffy" category.

NEXT WEEK

It seems like the storm up in Canada might slowly gain more influence over us here in the North Country. If that happens, we'll gradually lose the humidity but will keep the chances of showers going. Hard to say for sure because forecasts beyond five days are often not very accurate. But this attempt at a forecast is your hope we lose all that sticky, gross air that we're going to deal with. 

July 2026 in Vermont Was Mostly Humid, And Stormy

Stormy skies over Lake Champlain in July. The month
of July was relatively hot and quite stormy across Vermont.

 Not that you need reminding, but July in Vermont this year was humid, stormy and kind of hot. 

As measured in Burlington, the average temperature was 73.7 which was 1.3 degrees above normal. That doesn't sound like July was that hot,  but it was the 15th hottest July out of the past 136 years of reliable records. 

I always have to throw in this caveat. Normal nowadays is not your grandfather's average Vermont weather. 

 "Normal" temperatures are based on the average of what we saw between 1990 and 2020, when climate change had already taken hold. 

If this July happened in the 1970s or something like that, July would have been about four degrees above average. Hot Julys have become the norm in Vermont. Six of the top 10 hottest Julys have hit since 2018. 

Overall, the rest of northern Vermont was warm and dry, though it was paradoxically a humid and stormy sort of dry. In other words, not all that much rain came out of those muggy and roiling skies.

Weather stations across northern Vermont reported a monthly average temperature of a little more than a degree above normal.

Burlington had 3.18 inches of rain, which was nearly an inch below average. That turned out to be the 61st driest July out of the past 144 years of reliable records. Most of the northern two thirds of the state were dry, too. Given the fact that showers and storms tend to make summer rainfall highly variable, there were pockets of above normal precipitation. 

Montpelier's rainfall was 4.74 inches of rain in July, which was about a half inch above normal, But 2.45 inches of that came in one ferocious thunderstorm on July 9,

When you got toward southwestern Vermont, it was a little cooler than the modern average, and on the wet side. Bennington's average July temperature was almost a degree cooler than normal, Bennington also had 6.45 inches of rain, which was 1.8 inches above normal,

Much like in Montpelier, Bennington's wet month was due to one storm. They had 3.75 inches of rain on July 28-30, as they were on the edge of that epic storm that caused extreme flooding in New York's Hudson Valley. 

That same storm dumped over five inches of rain on some towns in the far southern Green Mountains. 

STORMY MONTH

The first half of the month was especially stormy. 

July got off to a literal bang on the first day of the month. Hot, oppressively humid weather help light up the sky with waves of severe thunderstorms. The worst of the storms sprung up abruptly in the Champlain Valley, leaving a trail of damage across northern and central Vermont into New Hampshire. 

An area around Underhill, Westford, Essex and Cambridge suffered especially severe damage.  Another wave of storms later that night filled the sky with continuous lightning

On July 9 storms blasted across northern Vermont, especially up in the Northeast Kingdom, nailing areas around Burke Mountain with intense microbursts. Flash flooding hit the area around Barre, but luckily, the flooding was much less severe that the past three Julys. 

Vermont braced for a severe storm and oddly strong tornado threat on July 14 into the early morning hours of July 15. Wildfire smoke squelched many would-be storms, so the problem wasn't as widespread as feared. 

However, supercell thunderstorms spewing microbursts caused lots of damage in a stripe northwest to southeast through Rutland and Windsor counties. 

On July 16, showers and storms developed along a weak southward moving cold front. The storms looked lame on radar, but the gust front packed quite a punch. More trees fell across northern Vermont.

Also, wildfire smoke made an appearance in Vermont, as I alluded to above. The worse of it was at mid-month when some big fires flared up in Ontario and northern Minnesota. Those fires tapered off later in the final weeks of July, so the smoke thinned, too. Just some haze from blazes in the western United States. 

Looking ahead to August, NOAA is predicting a hot month for most of the nation. However, the forecast gives equal chances of above or below normal temperatures in an area from the Great Lakes through the Northeast, including Vermont. 

NOAA is leaning ever so slightly on the wet side, so that's essentially a toss-up, too 

Vermont Remains On The Edge Of Wild Weather Pattern; Slight Flood Threat But Not As Bad As Further 'South

The first rains of our wet period are seen yesterday
over Lake Champlain near Alburgh. Some areas of
Vermont will see a couple inches or more of rain, with
a localized flood threat. The Northeast Kingdome
looks like it will largely miss out

 As you've seen in the headlines, there's been a lot of rough weather in the United States this summer. 

One long stripe of the nation has really gotten nailed. It goes from Minnesota and Wisconsin, through the Great Lakes, into the Ohio Valley and finally the Mid-Atlantic States.

That zone has repeatedly gotten some horrible thunderstorms and even tornadoes. Repeatedly. With no real end in sight.

Yesterday, a nasty tornado swept through parts of northeast Wisconsin, trashing large sections of Menasha, Neenah and Appleton.  Also Monday, severe thunderstorms packing 80 mph winds and possible tornadoes harassed the Chicago area. Flooding was also reported. 

Today, severe thunderstorms will hit the Mid-Atlantic states again. More flash flooding is a risk, too, especially in the New York City metro area. 

 Here in Vermont, we've mostly gotten glancing blows from all this wild, weird summer weather. Sometimes, it does mange to hit us, like when we had that pair of tornadoes in June, or those destructive microbursts in the Northeast Kingdom and southern Vermont earlier this month. But we haven't gotten the worst of it in the Green Mountain State. 

This time around, we're on the edge of the "fun" today and tomorrow. We don't have to worry about severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding is a bit of a threat, especially in southern Vermont, but - fingers crossed - this doesn't look like it will be anything widespread or super destructive.

Though I'm pretty relaxed about the forecast, this kind of weather system can pull surprises. Things won't turn out exactly as the current predictions. I'll give it a go as to what will happen, based on what the National Weather Service is telling us this morning. 

TODAY

Forecasted rain fall through Friday morning, from the
National Weather Service. Note that rainfall 
amounts will be more variable than depicted here. 

There were some showers and thunderstorms and downpours yesterday, mostly in the Adirondacks, bu they were pretty widely scattered. 

That kind of stuff will be more widespread today. Especially the further west and south you go.

Based on radar images at 9 a.m. today. you'd think a big dose of needed rain would be starting in Vermont very soon. There was a big stripe of rain, with a few embedded downpours in the central Adirondack, extending down to places just west of Albany, New York.

But this stuff was just barely crawling eastward. And it looks like it will weaken as it does so.

However, more showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as that slow weather system continues to press grudgingly eastward today. 

It will probably rain most places today, though showers and thunderstorms will be especially hit and maybe mostly miss in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Areas south and west of Interstate 89 have the best chance of seeing rain and downpours, possibly multiple hits. That's especially true down in far southern Vermont and up toward  Albany/Glens Falls/Lake George, New York and on its the Adirondacks, 

This area has the best chances of local flash floods today, though I'd emphasize that the chances of that happening are pretty low. Mostly because it's been so dry lately. Still, if any one place gets nailed by numerous downpours, one right after the other, then there could be a local high water problem

TONIGHT

Showers and storms will continue off an on. Since the wet airflow will come from the south and east, off the Atlantic, the best chance of heavier rain is on the east slopes of the southern Green Mountains and in the east slopes of the Adirondacks. 

Again, no widespread flooding, but there could be a pocket here or there the could have a creek or small stream overflow enough to damage a gravel road or driveway, or possibly damage a particularly unlucky  house. 

WEDNESDAY

By tomorrow morning, the center of our sluggish storm will be somewhere in the general vicinity of New York City, give or take. That set up will keep sending waves of showers northward into Vermont.  Again, the best chance of heavier rain is in southern Vermont. And maybe the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains maybe as far north as Sugarbush. 

If any flooding happens, it'll be in southern Vermont, especially in the steep slopes of the southern Greens. Again, so far at least, we're not expecting anything widespread. Definitely not a repeat of 2023, as it looks now. Even so, the creeks, small streams and brooks in southern Vermont especially will need to be watched. 

A saving grace is it looks like it will be too cloudy and too cool to allow any torrential thunderstorms to develop. So rainfall rates won't be as likely to produce flash flooding as we would see with a lot of thunderstorms. 

Once again, he Northeast Kingdom looks like it will be more protected from the rains. The White Mountains of New Hampshire might help block some of the Atlantic Ocean moisture that will be flowing into New England. 

THURSDAY

The stupid, slow, meandering storm will begin to depart. We'll still have some showers around, but the risk of heavy rain will diminish.

As noted, the rainfall will be super variable. One town might see more than two or even three inches of rain out of this, while a few towns over will see maybe a half inch to an inch. 

Broad brush, many areas south of Route 4 should get more that two inches of rain between now and Thursday. Some spots in the southern Green Mountains could easily go past three inches, maybe even approach four inches in isolated spots.

Central Vermont in general would receive one to 1.5 inches. Most of northern Vermont should receive an inch or less. Some places in the Northeast Kingdom could easily receive less than a half inch of rain, 

So, some places in Vermont will get too much rain, while other places not enough, It's still very dry in  northern Vermont, so a half inch of rain won't cut it. We'll need more, But at least the rain will cut back a burgeoning fire hazard. Brush fires were reported in recent days in Essex Junction and Fairfax. There probably were a few other small blazes breaking out in other parts of the state. 

Fortunately for the north and unfortunately for soon to be soggy southern Vermont, the weather pattern looks pretty active, though slow moving.  There's another potentially wet system that might come at us later Sunday or Monday. 

A Wet Spell Coming To Vermont: Some Risk Of Flash Flooding; Far North Might Miss Out

National Weather Service forecast map. Through Thursday
morning. If this forecast holds, the southern half of 
Vermont would get more than an inch of rain, with
local amounts much higher. Northern Vermont 
looks like it will get less. 

Today is dawning as it did the past couple of days, sunny, a little hazy from atmospheric wildfire smoke in the air.  

According to WCAX meteorologist Gunnar Consul said that Sunday was the exact midpoint between Burlington's average last and spring snowfall. So, we're in the midsummer doldrums. 

Which means slow moving, sluggish weather systems. 

For most of us, today will be a relatively nice day. But if you were a geek watching weather radar yesterday, you saw some slow moving showers and thunderstorms in the Adirondacks. There's not much motion of the atmosphere so they kind of sat there. 

The same state of affairs will happen today, and that introduces a rainy stretch that will lead to the risk of some localized flooding over the next few days. I'm absolutely not in panic mode like I was before  the big summer floods of 2023 and 2024. 

This episode doesn't look nearly as dire as that, unless there's some incredible surprise all the meteorologists are missing. But be on the lookout for the risk of some local flash flood problems that might erupt between today and Thursday.  

TODAY

The local flash flood risk starts today, almost exclusively in the Adirondacks. And maybe the western side of Lake Champlain in New York. That said, the chances of that happening are low. I just mentioned it because storms that develop won't move much. So they could dump huge amounts of rain in very small, pinpoint areas. That can be dangerous within the steep slopes of the Adirondacks.  

Here in Vermont, we'll watch the storms erupt here and there to our west, on the other side of Lake Champlain. Eventually, later this afternoon and early evening, a few showers or storms will erupt in Vermont, too. Most of us will stay dry and enjoy a nice day. Maybe 30 percent of us will get some rain by sunset. 

Because storms will be few and far between, it will get well into the 80s again today. 

TUESDAY

A much better chance of showers and thunderstorms, at least in the western half of the area. The disturbance causing the showery weather will have moved only slightly east. 

So there's an excellent chance of rain in southwest Vermont and New York. Much of central Vermont and the Champlain Valley has a very good chance of showers and storms. Again, since all the showers and storm will be moving very slowly, and some will contain torrential downpours.  All but the far Northeast Kingdom is under a marginal, level one of four risk of local flash floods. 

Northeastern Vermont should get through the day with just widely scattered showers and storms, so there risk os lover there. 

Again, this won't be a widespread problem. Since there will be sunshine, too, most of us should get into the low and mid 80s. The humidity will have risen somewhat, too. So it will be a partly cloudy, hazy, muggy day with the ever-present chance of showers and storms especially south and west of Interstate 89

WEDNESDAY

This will be the day with the best chance of rain. A nearly stalled weak but very wet storm will wander somewhere around New England and New York. This will set up a wet flow of air from the southeast - off the Atlantic Ocean - will push into New England, including Vermont. The heaviest rain will fall in southern Vermont, especially along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

We'll have to watch whichever spots ended up with the heaviest rainstorms on Tuesday will have to be watched for local flash floods. All but far northern Vermont is once again in a marginal, level one out of four on the risk scale. Areas in far southern Vermont - along Route 9 - are in a level 2 slight risk zone, as is most of southern New England. 

Areas in far northern Vermont that really need the rain look like they might miss out. It will rain up there. Any rain is good, but as it looks now, it probably won't be a deep soaker. 

Rainfall will be highly variable as it always is with showers and thunderstorms. In general, current forecasts give southern Vermont an inch or two of rain, with generally an inch in central Vermont. Far northern Vermont looks to receive only a half inch or so. Nice, but not enough.

Overall, with all the clouds and rain, it will be cool, but humid, with temperatures hovering in the 70s

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

Lingering showers and rumbles of thunder as that slow, rambling storm slowly leaves. So it will be an unsettled, iffy day. Some showers might linger into Friday. But warm, rather sunny, kind of humid weather will linger Friday and Saturday. Another sluggish system looks like it might arrive Sunday with more showers and storms. 

Severe U.S. Storms Since June Have Yielded Destruction, And Dramatic Videos.

Severe flooding last week in West Virginia. As you can 
tell from the videos in this post, it has been a stormy
summer in the United States. 

This summer seems like it's been a particularly stormy one. 

It seems every time I turn around, there's more news articles about tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, microbursts and flash floods. 

More floods and storms are on the horizon in the South, Midwest and parts of the Northeast in the coming days. 

But here's a visual look back, midway through this turbulent summer. 

As always, we have bunch of videos to share, to show you that whatever bad weather you've had this summer, somebody else had it worse. 

We'll start back on June 8, in Kansas.  Straight line winds were reported gusting as high as 113 mph last Salinas, Kansas. 

I don't think the video captures the peak of the storm, but it still looks strikingly like a hurricane. In Kansas. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

There's usually still plenty of tornadoes across the United States in Juneau.   Skydrama Weather Co tracked a few tornadoes across northern Missouri on June 10.  Always interesting to see the shapeshifting tornadoes how they go from one form to the next.  This is one of those shiftshapers. The end of the video shows a beautiful, strange blue and purple supercell coming into Kirksville, Missouri. The blue indicates lots of hail in the storm.

As always, click on this link to view, of if you see the image below, click on that. 

Skydrama Weather Co has more tornado footage, this from a June 11 tornado outbreak in Illinois. They caught several tornadoes I'm struck by how fast their forward speed was, especially the large tornado that opens the clip. Click in this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that 

From Brian Emfinger, we have a video from a drone taken on June 11 showing a narrow, drill bit style tornado, going through fields and solar farms in Ipava, Illinois. Luckily, the tornado is weak, as it only damages a few solar panels. 

Eventually the tornado goes into the town itself, but again, weak enough to cause little damage. Still, it's a fascinating video.  Much more destructive tornadoes struck Illinois and Indiana that day. 

Click on this link to view the drone clip of the tornado or if you see the image below, click on that. 

The Fourth of July brought lots of strong and severe thunderstorms that swept through the eastern United States over the holiday. 

One of the storms hit Lititz, Pennsylvania as the city geared up for their Fourth of July. It looks like it was one of those deals where people get there early, stake their places with blankets and belongings, and wander around to enjoy the day's festivities. 

Then a severe thunderstorm blew in. Good luck figured out who set things where. As you'll see in the video, it was a mess, to put it mildly. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

On July 6, the eastern United States were still going full steam. Torrential storms caused damaging flash flooding in New Jersey. 

Part of the roof of a BJ's Warehouse in Ocean Township, collapsed under the weight of the torrential downpours. Miraculously, nobody was seriously injured, including the older man in the video who was swept to the side by water, display tables and debris. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In early July, Super Typhoon Bavi hit the island of Rota in the Northern Mariana Island with 180 mph sustained winds. As you would imagine, the destruction was basically total.

Click on this link to view how bad a Category 5 typhoon can be. Or, if you see the image below, click on that

Brian Emfinger bring us a video, mostly drone footage, of the aftermath of an extreme flash flood near Lesterville, Missouri. A foot of rain fell in just a few hours, creating an extreme flash flood that swept through a campground. In looks like at least a couple dozen people were rescued from roofs including some where were stranded atop a collapsed building 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Large fires broke out in Ontario, Canada recently, as we know from the wildfire smoke that has drifted in recent weeks across southeast Canada and the northern and eastern United States.  This video shows Canadian National Railway Company (CN Rail) on the tracks near Armstrong, Ontario as flames surrounded them. I'm struck by how calm the narrator with his Canadian accent inside the train.

Click here to see the video, or if you see the image below click on that. 

Severe storms unleashes extreme flash flooding Tuesday in West Virginia. The disaster reminded me of what happened across Vermont in July, 2023. It was that bad. Even the West Virginia landscape looks similar to Vermont.  

The Associated Press has an overview video. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Tropical Storm Bertha formed a few days go and sort of bounced westward along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper level winds prevented the storm from amounting to much. Winds never got above 50 mph, and most of the rough weather stayed offshore 

Unlike a previous tropical storm named Arthur in mid-June, Bertha appears to have caused relatively little damage. Arthur caused torrential rains and severe floods, causing four deaths and at least $1 billion in damage. 

Still, Bertha caused its share of trouble. On Dauphin Island, Alabama, high storm tides shifted sand, trapping cars.  People who tried to drive over sandbars that formed over local roads also soon became trap, as a Live Storms Media video shows. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

The same flood event in West Virginia: A flash flood crashes through the ground floor of a Hilton hotel in Weston, West Virginia. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Another Nice Day Yields To An Iffy Today In Vermont Then Sweet Summer Weather To Return

A widespread severe weather outbreak is likely today in 
the Mid-Atlantic states. Vermont should be on the
edge of it, with just a marginal risk of strong storms. 

 Monday was another gorgeous day across Vermont. After a cool start, the day warmed into the low 80s. as expected. There was only a slight haze of wildfire smoke so air quality was OK. 

Today, we are going to largely escape a nasty severe weather outbreak in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. 

Much like last Saturday, the severe weather is likely in western New York all the way down to Tennessee and North Carolina. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky have a high chance of severe storms and even scattered tornadoes. 

Up here in Vermont, much like this past Saturday, we'll be on the edge of it. The atmosphere is conspiring against much weather violence in the Green Mountain State. That said, there's a marginal, level one out of five alert level of severe storms in most of Vermont later today. 

Back on Saturday, we were in the same situation, with lots of severe storms to our south and west, and we were on the edge of it. The National Weather Service was predicting some risk of severe storms in Vermont, which never materialized as conditions remained cool, cloudy and smoky. 

Unlike last Saturday, there are a few breaks in the clouds today, and the smoke is much thinner than it was on Saturday, as noted. 

Last Saturday, temperatures hovered in the 60s most of the afternoon, which is usually too chilly to support severe weather.   

Today is warmer, as highs should reach well into the 70s to low 80s. Also, like on 'Saturday, it will get more and more humid as we go through the day.  So I think we have a decent shot at thunderstorms. But not a widespread severe event. 

Judging from satellite photos this morning, the old remnants of previous thunderstorms, now decayed, should arrive to cloud up Vermont's skies, limiting the instability in the air just when you need sunshine the most to power up thunderstorms 

There could be showers anytime today, but it looks like they will be pretty scattered until mid or late afternoon and into the evening, when the showers and storms should come through in earnest. Although there a decent area of rain did blossom in southern Vermont during the mid-morning. 

That's when we could see the risk of a few widely scattered strong to borderline severe storms, though I'd emphasize the majority of us won't see anything that dramatic. Some places might hardly see any kind of showers or storms, 

For those of you wanting a nice, soaking rain, this won't be the wettest summer storm system ever. On average, southern Vermont might see a half inch of rain, northwest Vermont a third of an inch, with the Northeast Kingdom seeing less than a quarter inch. 

That's just broad brush. As is always the case with showers and storms, some towns will be big winners with over an inch of rain, while some other communities get sprinkles or light showers, It's impossible to tell in advance exactly who gets what in these situations. 

TOMORROW

We're not quite out of the shower and storm risk. The last of a series of weak weather fronts should cone through midday as a cold front. This should power up some scattered showers and storms.  The usual hit and miss routine. It looks like the timing of the front will be such that the storms will just be beginning to fire up in Vermont when peak afternoon instability begins to hit. 

For now, it looks like none of the storms will become severe until they reach New Hampshire and Maine, and southern New England. Even there, we see only a marginal, level one out of five risk for nasty storms there.

We should still see highs within a few degrees either side of 80 before the chillier air comes in. 

THURSDAY

Back to a hint of autumn, kinda, sort of. In any event, it should be a beautiful day. Sunny to partly cloudy and breezy, with rock bottom humidity with highs in the 70s. 

FRIDAY-SUNDAY

Another nice weekend! We've had a few of those this summer, which is definitely fortunate. Friday and Saturday will feature cool, calm mornings. Sunday morning will be a little warmer, but still comfortable. 

If the forecast holds, highs will be in the 80s, but trending a few degrees warmer each day, starting with low 80s Friday to upper 80s Sunday.