A Warm Vermont Day, Showers, Then A Couple Coolish Days, Then A Sharp Cold Front

Expected rainfall tomorrow. Maybe a quarter in in much
of Vermont. If we're lucky, more than a half inch in
northwest Vermont. Southeast Vermont looks likes it
will miss out, with less than a tenth of an inch. 

The sky eventually sorta, kinda finally cleared out yesterday afternoon, revealing the high, thin overcast we expected.  

The persistent clouds kept Wednesday's temperatures a little cooler than expected, with highs generally in 60s. 

Up next, some typically variable Vermont weather. We got a warm, somewhat humid day, another day that shifts from warm and rainy to cooler, a glorious Saturday, an OK Sunday and then some downright frosty weather. 

Let's get into it. 

TODAY

The sky finally showed some nice blue this morning, the last of the low clouds finally having been flushed out.  The day has also started really warm for the first of October. Most of Vermont had temperatures in the 50s at dawn, with a couple low 60s in the Champlain Valley. 

The blue skies this morning will disappear behind mostly high and middle clouds. Those clouds will hold temperatures down a little more than we originally thought. Instead of mid and upper 70s, highs will probably top off within a few degrees either side of 70.

There could be some light showers later this afternoon near the Canadian border, but those will be spotty and super light. 

It will also feel a little humid, especially for this time of year.

FRIDAY

A fairly strong cold front will come through during the day. The morning and probably a good chunk of the afternoon should be showery and pretty humid for the season. 

Best guess is that much of northern Vermont could end up at a quarter and a half inch, with maybe a little more along the western slopes of the northern Green Mountains. 

Southern Vermont should have less than a quarter inch of rain, with only a few hundredth of an inch in the southeast

Then, chillier air will start to move in, and that will be most noticeable in the north and west.  Expected high temperatures will be in the 60s, give or take. 

The cool air will become firmly established Friday night.  

SATURDAY

It continues to look like the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing has an order in for a perfect fall weekend day on tap.  Or at least they've been channeling the weather gods for this because parts of the state are now at peak foliage. 

The day will feature blue skies and crisp air.  Highs should make it to within a few degrees either said of 60 degrees. Watch out for frost Saturday night and early Sunday. Not everybody will get that white film on their lawns. But if you still have some plants outdoors that need to come in, you might keep cover them or bring them in Saturday evening

SUNDAY

It's beginning to look like Sunday will be nicer than we thought a few days ago. Sounds like the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing is working really hard with the weather gods.  Instead of the overcast and showers we thought would plague Sunday, it's now looking like it might be partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Sweet! 

EARLY NEXT WEEK

It still looks like a strong cold front will arrive.  Hard freezes could hit many areas of Vermont. I wouldn't even rule out some mountain snow flurries. Winter's coming - eventually. 

Stubborn Clouds Stay Over Vermont, A Sign Of Season; Brief Warmup, Then Autumn Chill To Flood In

Low clouds and fog yesterday hung on all day in much
of Vermont yesterday, and that gray gloom has lasted
into today. The hope is that fog will finally break
up later this morning or early afternoon 

We woke up in Vermont this morning to the same low overcast and fog we've endured for the past two or three days.  

Clearing has been repeatedly delayed. It's because a temperature inversion has trapped dense moisture near the ground. Get used to it. The waning, weakening autumn sun is less and less able to disrupt these inversions.  

So the fog and gray clouds remain. This phenomenon is a big reason why November and December are almost always overcast. 

It's the last day of September. The sun isn't at the same angle as it was in June. But not as lame as December. The sun should be able to break our current inversion. Albeit much later than forecast. A couple of days ago, we thought the sun would come out yesterday afternoon. 

Obviously, we're still waiting. So, what is going to happen?

REST OF TODAY

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is insisting the low clouds, fog and drizzle will finally break up late this morning or this afternoon.  We hope. A layer of drier air aloft is getting thicker, stronger. That should help gradually flush out the drizzly gray atmosphere. 

Once and if the low clouds break up, it won't 'get all nice and sunny. The moisture stream from thunderstorms across the southwestern United States from the remnants of Hurricane Polo. This moisture is high above the dry layer that meteorologists hope will flush out the low clouds.

The end result would be finally become a brighter day once we get into the afternoon. But the sun would be dimmed by high and mid level clouds.  It's iffy, but the thinking is the low clouds will dissipate soon enough so that temperatures will still be able to reach near 70 degrees. 

I'm not 100 percent sure the low clouds will break up as forecast, but there's always hope. 

THURSDAY

This part of the forecast hasn't 'changed much since yesterday. It'll be warm and humid, thanks to those Hurricane Polo remnants. It also won't be a clear, sunny day, though the sun will be out on and off. We'll call it partly sunny. Highs will reach the low and mid 70s, with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

A couple showers might show up in the far north in the later afternoon, but don't necessarily count on it raining. 

FRIDAY

After a fairly muggy night for early October, a cold front will approach and come through on Friday. On the bright side, the front will have grabbed a little bit of moisture from the Hurricane Polo remnants.  The bad news is the front will be stretching out and moving fast. It won't have time to drop much rain on us. Too bad, because we need it. 

The end result will probably be about a quarter inch of rain, give or take. 

Temperatures and humidity will depend on when the front comes in. It will probably feel a little warm and humid amid the showers for at least part of the day before much cooler and drier air comes in. 

SATURDAY

Hopefully, a classic early October Vermont day. Early morning patch fog (again!) should burn off into sunshine. Highs should reach somewhere around the low 60s, give or take as it looks now. Basically a foliage season day sponsored by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

Watch out for frost again Saturday night and early Sunday morning. 

SUNDAY

Unfortunately, rain chances have diminished a lot compared to earlier forecasts. THere's still a chance of scattered lights showers, especially later in the day, but don't hold your breath. We'll also have some sun and seasonable temperatures in the 60s All in all, an OK day. 

EARLY WEEK

Initial indications give us the risk of a hard freeze early next week.  Details aren't available yet, so we'll want to stay tuned. 

Tuesday Vermont Forecast: Clearing Will Be Very Reluctant, But Nice Days Coming

Fall colors hinting around my house and dying flower
gardens signal the arrival of October this week. 
Gloomy weather should last much of today,
but much warmer weather by tomorrow, Thursday. 

The gloom and drizzle and light rain we had yesterday actually felt good, at least to me. 

The fall colors popped out brightly in the gray atmosphere. Between showers, it was nice to do a little fall cleanup outside without a hot sun blasting down on me.  

Looking ahead, there are a few changes to the forecast since yesterday, as is often the case, especially in the autumn.

TODAY

Today, the dreary weather will be very reluctant to leave. More reluctant than we thought yesterday. It looks like there might be some clearing in southern Vermont, away from the Green Mountains. 

But in general, don't expect much sun. If there is any real sun, it won't come until later in the day.  It also probably won't rain,  aside from some drizzle mixed with the fog this morning. 

The clouds will tend to be low and thick, so you won't see the mountaintops. Today is not the day to hike to summits for an expansive view of the fall foliage. 

With the clouds, high temperatures will hold in the upper 50s to low 60s. 

WEDNESDAY

This part of the forecast has not changed since yesterday. The sun will come out,  though there might be quite a few high clouds. The sun should be able to break through that, though. Southerly winds should bring temperatures to near 70 degrees. 

In a hint of what's coming the next day, the air will begin to feel vaguely humid during the afternoon, but still not so bad.

THURSDAY

Another warm day. And humid. Thanks in part to of all things, Hurricane Polo, which smashed ashore in Mexico's Baja California early this morning. The remnants of the hurricane should be near El Paso, Texas of all places by noon tomorrow. Humid Pacific air will flow far to the north of that.  High pressure off the East Coast will also direct humid air northward from the Gulf of Mexico. 

The result might well be our last summer day of the year. (Though with El Nino raging, we could have a surprise warm day later in October, who knows?)  

Highs should get into the 70s, and dew points should get into the low and mid 60s. So those autumn foliage hikes might turn a little sweaty. 

Winds should pick up, too, especially in the Champlain Valley. It won't wreck the fall foliage, especially since the Champlain Valley is still generally green. 

FRIDAY

This will be another in a series of instances in which Vermont just misses out on a soaking rain. The remnants of Hurricane Polo will create a huge area with a risk of flooding in the United States. The flood potential  encompassing an enormous zone including all of Arizona and Mexica, along with southern Utah, then heading eastward into Texas and northeastward all the way to Illinois.  

Here in Vermont, despite the increased moisture from Hurricane Polo, and the humidity that will be in place, an approaching cold front won't give us all that much rain, at least as it looks now.  Heavy rain associated with the dead hurricane won't take it this far northeast. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says we might see 0.2 to 0.4 inches of rain. Not sure if we'll actually get that, but we will take anything we can get. 

The front was originally scheduled to come through early Friday, giving us a nice, cool day. Now, it looks like it will come through during the day, keeping us mostly under the clouds. 

WEEKEND

We might eke out a nice Saturday, with sunshine and seasonably cool temperatures. We have another chance of some showers Sunday.  It's a long way off, but so far, at least, it does not look like we'll see much rain. 

Nor'easter A Shadow Of Its Former Self, Will Spread Light Rain Across Vermont One Last Day

Not much color in the trees in back of my house just
yet, but color is increasing across Vermont. Despite 
today's gloom, we'll have some very nice foliage
viewing weather starting later Tuesday. 

Our huge nor'easter this morning was a little south of Long Island this morning. But it's not the mighty, destructive storm it was over the weekend.  

Instead, its a shadow of its former self, now staggering northeast, through New England today as a weak, remnant low. 

The now-weak storm continues to fling showers east to west across Vermont and that state of affairs will continue today. 

So far, rainfall has been modest almost everywhere. Even in southeast Vermont, rainfall has been disappointingly light. 

Through early Sunday afternoon, even most of Windham County, in the southeast corner of Vermont had only received generally a half inch of rain. 

Only some towns closest to the Massachusetts and Massachusetts border had more than an inch. More rain did fall in southeast Vermont during the later afternoon and last night

Central Vermont did benefit from some persistent bands of rain.  Montpelier had nearly a half inch of rain through early this morning. Burlington  had 0.27 inches through 7 a.m.. Not much but decent. 

Far northwestern Vermont, as expected, missed out. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans had collected just 0.06 inches of rain. 

Let's get into the forecast details

TODAY

A somewhat raw, definitely cloudy day. Those showers will keep rotating through, east to west, backwards from the pattern we usually see. 

Much like the storm so far, southeast Vermont gets the most. Forecasters insist Windham County will get another half inch or more of rain. Central Vermont would get a quarter to a half inch. Northwest Vermont gets less than a quarter inch, with less than a tenth of an inch in the far northwest. 

Under the clouds and showers, temperatures will stay in the 55 to 65 degree range.

TUESDAY

We'll start the day with clouds and patchy fog. During the afternoon, some sun will break out, especially in the broader valleys. Highs should reach the 60s

WEDNESDAY

This will be the start of a gorgeous period if you want to go out leaf peeping.  The Northeast Kingdom will be at peak during the second half of this week and color is popping nicely elsewhere in the state. Under partly sunny skies highs should reach to within a few degrees either side of 70.

THURSDAY

October arrives with partly sunny skies with highs getting well into the 70s,  Chances are it will be the warmest day we've seen in the past couple weeks. . Burlington is expecting a high temperature of 77 degrees, compared to a record high for the date of 80 degrees.

This could well be the warmest day of this October, as the weather pattern is going to turn chillier. Thursday might also feel a bit humid as dew points reach the low 60s. Kind of sticky for this late in the season. 

FRIDAY

An early morning cold front will bring in more traditional crisp autumn air. The front will probably produce a few showers, but we'll be lacking the needed rain.  Skies should clear up, especially north. Highs should be in the seasonable 60s. 

SATURDAY

Still iffy at this point, but signs so far point toward more sunshine, especially if high pressure to our north and west holds firm. It will be another cool day with highs in the low 60s. At least that's the early guess

SUNDAY

It might rain a little. We're not sure yet, but if we do receive rain, it doesn't look like it'll be a soaker

BOTTOM LINE

We really, really need rain, especially in northern and central Vermont. On the other hand, we don't want any big storms that would wreck the foliage season. 

So, I guess it's OK that the weather pattern doesn't really favor big rain storms as we head into October and the peak of the foliage season. But we should hope from soaking rains in the second half of October and November .

Very Rare "Kelvin-Helmholtz" Cloud Formation Seen In Vermont Thursday

Rare Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds over southern 
Vermont on Thursday. 

 Hat tip to the Vermont Skies page on Facebook for capturing some very rare Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds over southern parts of the state late Thursday.  

Kevin-Helmholtz clouds resemble a series of breaking waves. And they kind of are just that, actually. These are pretty rare.  The atmosphere needs the perfect alchemy of winds to make these clouds happen.  

As the Mount Washington Observatory explain:

"Lord Kelvin and Hermann Von Helmholtz, who studied physics that lead to this wave-like cloud formations, Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds form on windy days, when two different layers of air in the atmosphere move at different speeds. The winds in the upper layer of air move at higher speeds and cause cloud tops to roll over like a breaking wave. The atmosphere is split into layers when air densities change with height, for example, during temperature inversions."

It was not windy Thursday, but the Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds in the Vermont skies posting appeared to be high and thin.  At such high elevations, probably around 20,000 feet or even higher. It was surely windy up there.

The clouds appeared to form along the outer edge of cirrus clouds associated with what was then a developing nor'easter developing off the North Carolina coast. At the same time, strong, dry high pressure was sitting over Quebec. 

The Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds developed along the border between the two weather systems. 

Planes avoid Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds because there's tons of instability and turbulence around them. 

Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds are often hidden by other clouds, which is one reason why we don't see them that often. But everyone has a phone these days, Which means they have cameras. The Vermont Skies had lots of responses with photos, all taken in southern Vermont, and in nearby New Hampshire and Massachusetts. 

 

  

Nor'easter Beginning To Weaken After Causing Deaths, Destruction; More Rain In Vermont, Little North

Our nor'easter this morning looks almost identical to
what it looked like yesterday morning except the
center of it is just off the Jersey Shore. You can see
an eye-like dot of clear skies at the 
center of the storm. 

 Our nor'easter continues to cause problems along the East Coast today with strong winds, flooding rains and the risk of more coastal flooding. 

Vermont remains on the edges of the storm. More on that below, but first, just a few of the storm headlines. 

STORM LOSSES

At least one death and some injuries were attributed to the storm around New York City. A 56 year old man was killed in Brooklyn when a tree fell on him. Elsewhere in Brooklyn, four people, including two children, were injured by a falling tree at a playground. 

In New Jersey, rescuers pulled nine people and a dog from flooded hotel rooms. By early this morning, 82,000 homes and businesses were without power across the Northeast.

Major coastal flooding inundated many homes and businesses along the Jersey Shore. Some homes had at least a foot of water inside. The inside of Surf City Marina on Long Beach Island, New Jersey was flooded for the first time since Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

Winds from the nor'easter were more damaging than usual right along the coastlines because leaves are still on the trees. The leaves act like little sails, pulling the tree laterally wind strong winds blow. Only about 2 percent of all nor'easters hit in September. The vast majority of them occur in the winter, when trees are leafless. 

Nor'easters are usually large in area than most hurricanes, so this type of storm can often spread its damage over a wider area. 

Today, the coastal flooding won't be as bad as Saturday's as the storm makes landfall in New Jersey a weakens. But heavy rain is still falling along the East Coast, so flooding from sources other than the ocean could be a big problem for the rest of the day. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

As expected, it was rainy and gloomy in southeast Vermont Saturday, though not all that much rain fell down that way. Things improved as you headed northwestward. By the time you hit the northern Champlain Valley it was quite a nice day with breaks of sun and highs in the low 70s.

Today

Today, the rain bands from the nor'easter are making it as far north as the Quebec border.  Rain today will be showery and pretty light in general, except in southeastern Vermont, where rain will be heavier. 

It won't rain all the time today, but we'll have an ever-present risk of at least light showers. You'll have dry breaks in between, so you can sneak outside and do a little fall cleanup between the raindrops. North of Route 2, today's rain will amount to less than a tenth an inch, with a few places just getting just  trace.  

Southern Vermont looks like it will be wetter than the north, consistent with previous forecasts. They should see mostly a quarter to a half inch of rain by this evening with maybe a little more in the southern Green Mountains and maybe a little less up toward Rutland. 

It will be cooler than yesterday in the north today under the clouds with highs in the 60s - still not bad for this time of year. Southeastern Vermont might hold in the upper 50s under thicker clouds and perhaps more persistent rain. 

There have been some gusty winds along the western slopes of the southern Green Mountains, as expected.  Overnight, there were a handful of power outages down that way. Those winds should diminish as we go through the day. 

Monday

A little rainier in central and northern parts of the state than it's been, but this won't be super soaker up north, either. 

The now much weaker nor'easter will move northeast through New England, sending more showers our way. Once again, the showers will be pretty light, especially north. Most of the northern half of the state should see maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. There will probably be a little more than that south. 

Except in far southern Vermont, this definitely won't be the soaker we really, really need. 

Under the clouds, temperatures will hold between 57 and 65 degrees during the day.  

Tuesday

The remnants of the nor'easter should be heading off into Canada, leaving quite a few clouds over us here in Vermont during the day. We should have little or no rain, with highs in the 60s again

Wednesday-Thursday

A nice spell of warm weather, with highs reaching the low or even mid 70s both days under at least partly sunny skies. 

Friday-Weekend

Much cooler behind a cold front which will unfortunately deposit little or no rain. Behind the front, sunshine will return, but it will be much cooler. We'll have to watch for frost again or places that haven't received it yet.

Goofy Computer Models

To give you an idea how outlandishly wrong computer models get in extended forecasts out more than a week, we present this morning's run of the American computer model. That model gives us in Vermont what looks like a snowstorm on October 9.  Snowstorms are theoretically possible that early in the season, but I pretty much guarantee that won't happen in this instance.  

Nor'easter Is Pummeling East Coast Today, Vermont To Have Varying Experiences With The Storm

The nor'easter was centered off the Virginia coast as of
around 8 a.m this morning. It's at the center of that
swirl of clouds. The thick clouds well to the 
north and west of the storm center signified the
roughest weather at the time, with wind and 
heavy rain through far southern New England 
Long Island and down into New Jersey and
Delaware, Vermont will remain on the edge of storm

The nor'easter we've been watching all week is now in full force along the East Coast from Virginia northward. 

It's already a mess along the Northeast coast. 

Along the Delaware and New Jersey shores, major coastal flooding was expected at this morning's high tide. When they start throwing around the words "major flooding", you know there's going to be damage.

Even before this  morning's high tides, there was widespread flooding along coastal streets in New Jersey, and some homes had been flooded.

The timing of this nor'easter is bad. The full harvest moon is today, and that is causing  higher tides, even without a big storm make things exponentially worse. 

In southeastern Massachusetts, mainly Cape Cod and the islands, winds have already been pretty ferocious. Gusts have reached 64 degrees on Nantucket, 62 mph on Martha's Vineyard and 59 mph in Hyannis. 

The Associated Press was reporting 60,000 power outages already, and that number will go up as the storm continues to rake the Northeast. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Here in Vermont, parts of the state are already feeling the fringe effects of the nor'easter this morning. The Green Mountain State looks to stay largely on the fringes throughout the event. But the experience will be sharply different depending on where you are in the state. 

If I were completely selfish, I'd wish this storm was moving about 50 to 100 miles further north than expected. That would have made the storm worse in southern New England, but would have also given all of Vermont a very nice, needed soaking of rain. 

Instead, rain bands are, and will rotate north and westward into Vermont today and tomorrow. Those rain bands will peter out as they head deeper into the state. Dry air connected to strong high pressure to our north and west will eat up the moisture, probably leaving the northwestern part of the state with mostly just occasional sprinkles. 

Let's get into the daily details

Today

As of 8 a.m this morning the first rain band from the nor'easter had already made it into southeast Vermont. The rain should become a little more steady and heavier this afternoon down that way. Under the clouds and rain, temperatures will probably hold hear 60 degrees

The further north and west you go, the drier it will become. Northwestern Vermont should actually have a decent day. It'll be cloudy, with maybe some breaks of sun and mild, with highs up in the 70 to 73 degree range. 

In between those two extremes, central Vermont will have a mediocre weather day with clouds, perhaps a very light shower and temperatures well into the 60s. 

Tonight/Sunday

This period will contain  the bulk of the storm in southern Vermont. Tonight and tomorrow down there will be decidedly rainy and in some places windy. In southeastern Vermont, some of the rain bands could bring some briefly heavy rains. 

As those rain bands work north and west, they'll weaken just as they will today. But they will have a little more oomph. That means central Vermont will have a somewhat showery, cool day, though rainfall amounts won't be huge. Maybe a few hundredth of an inch of rain. Maybe 0.1 to 0.2 inches in the wetter spots. 

Northwest Vermont is in for an OK day again. It will be cloudy and a little cooler than today. (upper 60s). There's a chance of a few sprinkles in the afternoon and evening, but certainly nothing to really wet things down. 

Winds will pick up too. In most of the state, it will just be a north to northeasterly breeze but nothing weird.  However, along the western slopes of the southern and maybe central Green Mountains, it could get quite gusty. 

Some of those gusts could be between 40 and 50 mph.  I don't see any wind advisories for this area yet, but the National Weather Service might issue such an alert later today. 

Monday

Northern and probably central Vermont will have the wettest period from this nor'easter, but that isn't saying much. By then, the nor'easter would have greatly weakened and started moving toward the northeast, through New England. 

Showers should fall statewide, but the rain won't amount to much north. Maybe a quarter inch in many places, but maybe a tenth of an inch or less far northwest. Because of the showers, it will be a little cooler with highs in the 58 to 65 degree range. 

Total rainfall from the nor'easter is now forecast to come up to as much as two inches in the far southern Green Mountains. Most of the southeastern quarter of the state can expect maybe an inch. Central Vermont is due for between a quarter and a half inch, with locally higher amounts.   

The far northwest can expect a quarter inch or less, with some areas getting only a tenth of an inch or less.

Bottom line: Beneficial rains in the southeast, but mostly a whiff for the rest of Vermont

CAVEATS

Nor'easters are notoriously tricky. Especially slow moving ones like this character.  Some areas of the state might receive more or less rain than forecast. I'm hoping for a miracle that would bring heavier rain to northern Vermont, but so far it doesn't seem to be in the cards. Doesn't mean it can't happen. 

The storm will continue to batter the northeastern coast today and at least part of tomorrow before weakening. So you'll see dramatic videos of waves and coastal floods on the news. In Vermont, it'll just be another so-so autumn weekend. 

Nor'easter Still Being Unpredictable, But Vermont Likely To See Fringe Effects

The visible satellite photo early this morning for Vermont
and surrounding areas early this morning was interesting
The southwest to northeast oriented bands of clouds
were the outermost effects of that building nor'easter.
Those clouds that sort of look like cracks in
central Vermont and the Connecticut River
Valley was dense valley fog. 

We've got one more delightful fall day to get through before the weather goes downhill somewhat thanks to that big nor'easter we've been talking about all week. 

Vermont looks like it'll get mostly the fringe effects from this big storms. Meanwhile. the coast from Virginia to New England is bracing for coastal flooding and erosion, and high surf and strong winds.   

The nor'easter will move northward off the East Coast today and a good part of tomorrow. The computer models are now trending toward a westward hook that would bring the nor'easter to near or onshore of New Jersey or perhaps southwest Long Island. 

That's different from the westward hook into New England we saw on yesterday's forecast. 

This doesn't really change the forecast much for coastal areas, especially from Massachusetts south. 

If the westward hook into New Jersey happens, it could change things a little for Vermont. But again, no matter what happens, we're not feeling the full effects of the nor'easter. 

It still looks like southern Vermont will have the worst weather out of this. The further you head north, the less rain you'll see. North of Route 2, there's definitely a chance of some rain, but it might not be a washout up there.   

Here's how we think it will play out, based mostly on National Weather Service forecasting. Bear in mind this is a tricky forecast so things can still change

TODAY

I said above it will be delightful today, but perhaps not as perfect as yesterday. Thursday featured wall-to-wall blue skies after the morning fog burned off.

We started today with more valley fog, which was burning off as I wrote this. Judging from satellite images, some clouds will probably come into southern Vermont later this morning and gradually work northward. 

The northern half of Vermont might start to see at least some high clouds this afternoon but our weather as a whole today will be sunny and mild.   Highs should top out near 70, especially in the warmer valleys. 

SATURDAY

Most of us will have a breezy day with winds from the north or northeast as the storm draws closer. But southeastern Vermont looks like it might have a dramatically different day than the northwest. Down by Brattleboro,  and Wilmington and Springfield, it looks like a cool, rather rainy day with highs near 60. 

Once you get way up into the northwest, places like St.Albans and Swanton and the Champlain Islands, there could be some sun mixed with the clouds and highs will get to near 70 again. 

Places in between those two extremes will sort o have weather that is not as bright as St. Albans, but not as gloomy as Brattleboro. 

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY

Rainy and breezy to in some places windy in southern Vermont. The rain might even come down pretty heavily at times in far southeastern Vermont, depending on how the moisture flow with this nor'easter sets up. 

The amounts of rain would taper off as you head north and west, such that there might be only light showers north of Route 2.  This is a really tentative forecast, though, so expect surprises. Nor'easters are especially annoying and challenging for anyone trying to forecast them. 

If the nor'easter comes just a tiny bit further north than expected, more of Vermont gets a soaking rain. 

If the storm hooks to the left a little sooner than forecast, there'd be less rain and maybe even perhaps none at all once  you get close to the Canadian border. 

For now, the National Weather Service nor'easter rainfall roulette board gives extreme southeast Vermont more than an inch of rain from this storm. Very roughly south and east of a line from Rutland to St. Johnsbury gets at least a quarter inch of rain, with more than a half inch once you get down toward Ludlow and Springfield. 

Northwest Vermont should get less than a quarter inch, with some areas receiving less than a tenth of an inch or perhaps nothing at all.  However, a few computer models do have a band of rain spiraling all the way north to the Canadian border, so there's a chance of a surprise up there. 

It's too soon to tell whether this forecast rain map will turn out to be accurate or not. But chances are, you'll probably get a little less, or a little more rain than the map is telling us.  If you have weekend plans, expect rain southeast. Further north, have an indoor backup plan if you were going to do stuff outdoors. 

With the nor'easter perhaps hooking westward into New Jersey, at least maybe, that would give the wind flow up here in Vermont more of an easterly component. Which sets us up for the classic downslope winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

I'm not expecting a wild western slopes windstorm, the kind we sometimes get in the winter with this type of storm. Even so, it could get pretty gusty, though, along the western slopes, especially in the southern half of the state. 

Wind gusts in some areas of southern Vermont, mostly on the western slopes could get to 40 or even 45 mph. That's enough for a few widely scattered  instances of tree branches coming down, or even an isolated power outage, but it won't he widespread.

EARLY WEEK

The weather models have our nor'easter near New Jersey Sunday and Monday, sitting and spinning and slowly weakening. Eventually, the remnants of the storm might slowly head off to the northeast. That would keep Vermont under the clouds, with maybe sone light showers. 

Temperatures early next week should be near normal, then maybe trending above normal by mid week. This time of year, "above normal" is low 70s. 

Another Frosty Vermont Morning In Spots, Nice Weather To Be Followed by Nor'easter Effects, How Much Rain?

Yesterday, a beautiful Wednesday in Vermont, showed that
fall foliage isn't that far along yet, as this view from a 
high spot in Richmond shows. If we get wind and rain
from the weekend nor'easter, it won't wreck this year's
foliage season because things aren't 
that far long yet. 

 As expected, it was another chilly September morning today, but very typical for the season. 

Most of Vermont was in the mid-30s at dawn, with a few spots in the low 30s. The Champlain Valley was closer to 40 degrees. Southern Vermont was chillier than yesterday. Bennington was down to 33 degrees.

As always, there was a lot of fog in the valleys, which will burn off this morning. Chances are it will be gone by the time you read this. This will yield another beautiful autumn day with lots of sunshine and highs well into the 60s. 

FRIDAY

The day will dawn cool again, but probably not quite as cool as this morning. So the chances of frost are lower, but there might be a spot or two in the coldest areas. The early morning fog will be back, too. It'll be another sunny, beautiful day, Some high clouds will come in especially south. That'll be the first sign of the nor'easter in Vermont

NOR'EASTER WEEKEND

We have an overall sense of what this nor'easter will do, but the picky details of how that will affect us in Vermont is still an open question. The storm was just developing off the North Carolina coast this morning and will slowly head north while strengthening. It should be somewhere a little south or east of the New England Saturday. 

After that, it might loop a little westward while starting to weaken. By early next week the nor'easter will e falling apart while heading out to sea.

We're still looking at a lot of coastal erosion and flooding from Virginia to New England.  Also southeastern New England is under a high wind watch for those strong nor'easter winds that were expected.

Unless you like huge, beach chewing storms, stay away from the immediate East Coast over the next few days. 

Vermont Effects

It now looks like the nor'easter will send bands of rain westward into Vermont. But those rain bands will run into dry air and weaken as they do so. 

We still don't know how much rain will make it into the Green Mountain State. It's beginning to look like most, but maybe not all of the state will see at least a little rain, and it might be a soaker for the far southeast. 

Maybe. 

According to the National Weather Service/South Burlington's forecast discussion, the models are all over the place as to how much rain might fall. 

That discussion highlights the differences in expected rainfall in Vermont among the models.  As of this morning, it could be anywhere between nothing and 0.44 inches in Burlington, In Montpelier, nor'easter rainfall could range anywhere between 0.04 and 0.82. In Springfield, the range is between 0.15 and 1.5 inches. 

On top of that, we can expect more shifts in rainfall projects in the days and hours leading up to this weekend. 

Overall, it looks pretty likely that southeast Vermont will have at least a fairly wet weekend, while anything could  happen in the northwestern half of the state. 

Temperatures this weekend, especially Sunday look questionable, too. Daytime readings could hold in the low to mid 50s in areas that have the steadiest rain. If the clouds are thin and rain-free in the northwest, it could be 70 degrees up there. 

It'll get breezy, too. Nor'easters are obviously windy, and even in the outskirts of the storm it can get breezy. So far, it's looking like winds could gust to over 30 mph in the southern and central Green Mountains. The same might be true in the Champlain Valley. The winds will funnel between the Green Mountains and Adirondacks, which speeds the airflow up. 

Luckily, it's early in the foliage season and the fall colors themselves are running a little late this year. That means this storm with its potential wind and rain won't be a "foliage stripper."  The peak colors coming up in October will still be spectacular, whether or not this storm hits Vermont. 

Vermont Frost Was Pretty Scattered This Morning; Nice Days Until Potential Weekend Nor'easter; Coast To Be Hit Hard

Plants were covered on my St. Albans deck this morning,
as a I heeded a frost advisory. I actually didn't think it
would get dangerously cold for the plants, and it
only got down to 39 degrees. No harm in being
cautious though. 

  I kind of figured the frost this morning would be pretty light and very scattered, with many places escaping trouble. You can't be too careful , though, with the frost risk for your outdoor plants, so that I think is why there was a frost advisory in much of Vermont.  

Burlington was at 41 degrees at 7 a.m. so no frost there. My covered plants on my St. Albans, Vermont deck were cowering beneath the sheets to escape a not-so-frosty 39 degrees. 

Most places in Vermont at dawn were in the 30s. Morrisville was at 32 degrees at 6 a.m. indicating at least some of us had frosts or even a freeze.

Let's get into what will happen in the next couple of days.  Then look at the impending nor'easter in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, and what it means for us here in Vermont. Spoiler: There's still a lot of unanswered questions about it. 

TODAY

Another beauty. Highs in the 60s, under lots of sun. Tonight will be cool again, and there might be new frost advisories. But if you didn't see frost this morning there's an excellent chance you won't see any tomorrow morning, either. 

THURSDAY

Nice again! Highs will into the 60s under sunny skies once again.

THE NOR'EASTER

Instead of continuing on with the daily forecast here, we should describe this impending storm. It's going to cause a lot of trouble from the Mid-Atlantic States on through New England, especially along the coastlines. 

We already have coastal flood warnings in Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey starting this afternoon, and the storm hasn't even wound up yet. 

I have seen some social media weather pundits falsely comparing this storm to Superstorm Sandy or the Perfect Storm of 1991.  That's just for clicks and profits. 

But still, this could be a pretty memorable storm, mostly because it will linger off the New England  coast for so long. 

The general idea of what the storm will do is being to take shape. It will start forming about now well off the North Carolina coast, then slowly move northward to somewhere off then coast of New England. Then it will become trapped and spin in that general vicinity for a couple days before gradually weekend and heading out to sea early next week. 

Exactly where it goes will decide how bad the weather gets along the coast. The storm's path will also determine how much of an effect it has on Vermont. Some models have the storm heading backwards for a time, moving toward the west and actually making landfall in New England. Others models keep it offshore. 

Given that, we don't know how rainy, how windy, or how chilly it will get in Vermont and where. 

I imagine clouds will slowly increase later Thursday into Friday as the storm gets a little closer. 

Here are the forecast challenges

Rain:  

Strong high pressure to the north and west will have very dry air with it. So rain moving westward from the storm into Vermont would run into that dry air.  That would mean a sharp cutoff between fairly substantial rain to the south and east and very little to the north and west. Where that line between wet and dry sets up is a complete unknown as of now. 

Wind

The closer the storm comes to us, the windier it will get. This won't be a huge blowdown by any means, but if the storm gets close enough, some gusts could get strong enough to knock down a few trees and power lines. If we do see gusty winds they're most likely in the southern Green Mountains. The channeling effects of mountains on either side other Champlain Valley might make things relatively gusty there, too.

Temperatures

Expect highs in the low 50s to low 70s over the weekend.  That huge range is by no means helpful if you're deciding what to wear if you're out and about Saturday. The problem is that dry air. Where it rains, evaporation cooling could drop temperatures well down into the 50s. If there's just thin clouds, especially north and west, temperatures could to 70 degrees.  

Bottom Line: 

If you have weekend travel plans to Cape Cod and the Islands, Long Island, the Jersey Shore or places like Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, or Ocean City, Maryland, fuhgeddaboudit.  Coastal flooding, severe beach erosion, gusty winds, power outages and inundated coastal roads will not make things pleasant.  Plus, you'll just be in the way if there are any evacuations of coastal homes and buildings. 

If you stay in Vermont really expect anything this weekend. You'll need to be flexible with your plans because with this situation, we might not know if it will be sunny or rainy until almost the last moment. A small shift in the storm track will make a huge difference as to who gets what. 

Unlike at the coast, Vermont will suffer little or no damage from this storm, so that's a plus.  If we get really, really lucky, we could get some badly needed rain. 

We will try to monitor this storm as best we can as the event gets closer.  

Frost Advisories In Vermont Tonight, Including Champlain Valley

Areas in blue are under a frost advisory tonight. The
Northeast Kingdom is not under the advisory because
the growing season has ended up there. But that 
region of the state will also deal with frosts 

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington this afternoon hoisted frost advisories for large swaths of Vermont tonight and very early Wednesday. 

Areas that might find at least a little frost early tomorrow morning are the Champlain Valley excluding the islands and central Vermont and the central Green Mountains. 

The Northeast Kingdom isn't under any advisories because their growing season is considered over. But up there, it'll be probably be at or below freezing in some spots, and near freezing in others.

This morning, I said that the Champlain Valley was probably safe from frost.  However, it became apparent this afternoon that the air is so dry, it will cool off rapidly this evening, which brings the risk into play. 

I still think frost in the Champlain Valley of Vermont will be very hit and miss, especially west of Route 7, which is closer to the lake. Still, anywhere in the frost advisory zone, it's probably a good idea to cover up tender plants or bring them indoors for the night. 

Despite it being slightly warmer tomorrow afternoon, there could be another frost risk tomorrow night, so keep those old sheets handy for the plants. 

Tuesday Vermont Weather: Sunshine Prevails This Week, But What About That Weekend Nor'easter?

This is just one forecast for the position
of the expected nor'easter this weekend. 
It could come closer, giving Vermont
some rain, or it could be further out to
sea, resulting in a sunny weekend. 
At this point a flip of a coin is just
as good as a forecast. 

We endured another cool day Monday with  highs holding in the mid-50s north and central with a few low 60s south. 

The skies remained mostly cloudy, which was expected. Those clouds helped hold down the temperatures. 

It doesn't look like there's any frost around this morning in Vermont, but I noticed Saranac Lake, the perennial cold spot in the Adirondacks, got down to at least 31 degrees, which isn't at all odd for them this time of year. 

Overall, we're looking at sunshine most of the week, with some frosts risks in the cold spots. But a bit of a warming trend should set in during the week, too. We won't go back to summer. Instead, it'll be comfortable fall weather. 

We'll be playing nor'easter roulette this coming weekend. We know a nasty nor'easter will rev up off the East Coast this week, but whether it will affect Vermont all that much is still a very, very open question. Best guesses are still no rain, at least in the north. 

The worry is dry air, and relatively gusty winds from the outer fringes of the nor'easter could worsen the northern Vermont drought and expand it. And those winds could increase the fire risk

As always, let's do the daily forecasts

TODAY: 

A nice one. Much more sunshine than yesterday means highs should reach the low to mid 60s. Clear skies and light winds raise the specter of scattered mostly light frost tonight. A lot of towns will be cutting it close. 

The expected low tonight in Montpelier, Newport and St. Johnsbury is 35. Island Pond should get to at least 32 degrees. Rutland is expecting 38, but valleys in the nearby Green Mountains will probably be colder than that. The Champlain Valley should be frost-free. 

WEDNESDAY

Another beauty. The day will start with that patchy frost and a lot of dense fog in the river valleys, which will burn off. Afternoon temperatures  should reach the mid and upper 60s. 

THURSDAY

Still sunny, with a risk of early morning patchy frost in the cold spots. We'll probably have a lot of patchy fog in the valleys again. It's peak season for that.  We'll feel the first hints of that nor'easter with a bit of an increase in north winds. It won't exactly be windy, but you'll notice a breeze. 

FRIDAY

The uncertainty increases. Maybe the clouds increase, too, in the south, we'll have to wait and see. Depending on the track of the nor'easter, there couple be a few showers and increasing winds and southern Vermont. It all depends on whether this thing wants to hug the coast to go more out to sea. 

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

An iffy weekend. Will the nor'easter come close enough to Vermont to give us some rain? Or will it be a whiff? Or something in between. 

The best guess is we'll have a breezy weekend, maybe downright windy in some spots, especially in the southern Green Mountains. Maybe some rain in southern Vermont, with a lesser chance north. 

This is such a tentative forecast. Don't yell at me if this is totally wrong. Computer models range from a complete miss with bright sunshine in Vermont to a miserably wet, windy weekend.  

We associate nor'easters with very cold air. Usually, even when a nor'easter misses Vermont, it pulls down some horrible frigid air from Canada. 

That won't be the case this time. That big, fat high pressure system anchored in Quebec is sitting there, slowly warming up in the September sun. That's why forecasters are telling us of a slow, if slight warming trend this week. 

The soon-to-be warm-ish Quebec high is huge, and is keeping any real early season cold stuck way up near the Arctic circle. That means the nor'easter doesn't have a chance at tapping into really cold air. If the sun is out this weekend, it'll be near 70. If it's rainy, it'll be near 60, or even in the 60s. 

Storms thrive on a cold/warm air clash. The reason why this one will develop is the Quebec high will have seasonable air to the west of storm. To the east is hot tropical air over ocean waters that are warmer than normal. That set up will help the storm develop nicely. 

Whether that matters to us in Vermont is unknown. 

 

A Cold, Damp Vermont Sunday, And A Cool Autumnal Week

Today's rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service in South Burlington. Though it
will be a rainy day, we ultimately won't get all that
much. The driest part of the state, the Northeast
Kingdom, will unfortunately see the least

 Saturday in Vermont felt like mid-October, with crisp air and bright blue skies, at least in  northern Vermont.

 High clouds were already starting to increase in southern Vermont. Those clouds were a sign of a very chilly Sunday coming in. 

The clouds were in place over Vermont as dawn broke today and rain was spreading in. Light rain should fall all day, though eastern Vermont should see mostly dry weather until mid to late morning. 

All this should hold daytime temperatures down in the 50s. As noted yesterday, this will be the coldest September 20 high temperatures since 1990, when the high was 53. 

The coldest high temperature on this date was 50 degrees in 1962  (The year 1962 was among the coldest on record in Vermont, as measured in Burlington). 

If it's going to rain, you want it to be beneficial, a real soaker. Unfortunately that won't be the case. Instead, it will mostly be annoying light rain, drizzle and sprinkles.  The rain might pick up at times to briefly feel drenching, but it won't be really make everything sopping wet. 

Only a thin top layer of the ground will get wet. There won't be enough rain to soak deeper. The Northeast Kingdom most needs the rain the most, and they'll get the least.

Some places in the NEK will receive less than a quarter inch of rain. Most of the state will see a modest quarter to a half inch. A few places in the far south could get a little more than a half inch

We're setting ourselves up for a cool week, too. Daytime highs won't be as cold as today, but we'll have to watch the nights for the risk of frost in a few spots. .

MONDAY

It will probably take its time clearing up during the day. Overall, most of us will have a mostly cloudy day, with more sun maybe in the Connecticut River valley. With cool north breezes blowing, it'll stay cool, with highs within a few degrees either side of 60.

 Some clearing Monday night will send temperatures down into the 35 to 42 degree range for most of us. Colder valleys could have some frost. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Massive, cool high pressure will set up to our north in Quebec, while low pressure is stuck in the Mid-Atlantic states or just offshore. This should keep us dry and chilly through the week. Some models take the Mid-Atlantic storm, or at least some of its moisture our way towards the end of the week. That's tossup right now, so we'll have to see how that plays out. 

Chances are, unfortunately, that we get little rain from that storm. But, we shall see!

Autumn Cool Weather To Make a VERY Noticeable Arrival In Vermont Over The Next Several Days

Photo of Hard'ack Hill in St Albans taken yesterday, a
beautiful, cool-ish September Day. If I told you I'd taken
this photo in July, you'd believe me, as the trees are 
still entirely green. That will start to change as we
begin a spell of notable cooler than normal 
weather that will last at least a week

This morning was another "coldest so far this season," and we should expect a lot of that type of morning as autumn advances.  

Burlington was at 41 degrees as of 7 a.m. today, the coldest it's been since May 12. Most of Vermont was in the mid and upper 30s at that hour. Morrisville was at 33, so they likely had a touch of frost. 

I've talked in past posts about that amazing streak of steady weather we've had. High temperatures have ranged only between 69 an 82 degrees since August 10.

 I don't think we've ever seen anything like that, lasting this long. That streak is about to end. It was definitely inevitable.  It ain't summer anymore. 

In early September, the normal temperature was slowly drifting down, reluctantly leaving the summer season. Now, average temperatures are cratering. At the start of the week, the average temperature for the date was 64. Today it's 61.5 degrees. By the last day of the month it'll be 56.5 degrees. 

It's getting cool fast. Despite sunshine, temperatures will only recover to the 60s today. Still nice, but cool. And then it gets worse.

SUNDAY

This will be a shock to the system. Clouds will have arrived and rain will be overspreading Vermont.  Forecasts have become a little more optimistic for statewide rain, instead of mostly just hitting the south. 

It won't be a super soaker, and it won't really ease the drought in the Northeast Kingdom. Especially since that area will get the least rain out of this, maybe a quarter inch. Otherwise, the northern half of Vermont is currently in for a quarter to a half inch, with southern Vermont seeing a half inch to an inch. 

While all this is going on, cold air will be feeding down from Quebec. That means high temperatures might only reach the 50s. The National Weather Service says it might well be the coldest daytime temperatures for this time of year since 1990. 

It this were late October or early November, this situation might have been an early seasons snowstorm. It's way too early for that. So not to worry, it'll just be a chilly rain. 

Today will be a good day to dig out all the fleece and hats and warm pants out of the closet. Tomorrow will be a good day to stay inside and watch football or binge watch Netflix or something. 

MONDAY-FRIDAY

A chilly week is ahead.  The mountainsides in Vermont are still mostly green. But a long spell of cool weather that's starting today and lasting all week will really begin to change that. 

Next week is a fantastic recipe for setting the stage for a potentially beautiful fall foliate season. We'll have lots of sun, with cool temperatures. The colder valleys will likely have frost each morning, at least Monday through Wednesday, if not beyond. Highs should be in the 58 to 65 degree range, cool for this time of year. 

Meanwhile a very slow moving storm looks like it might form and intensify off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Early guesses are it will become the first nor'easter of the season.  The weather pattern is hard to predict. Will the cool high pressure system to our north keep the storm away from Vermont? Or will it spread clouds and a chilly rain our way toward the end of the week? As always, stay tuned! 

Drought Monitor: Vermont Dry Conditions Unchanged Since Last Week

A drought is deepening across eastern New England and
Vermont is on the western fringe of that drought. 
Below normal rainfall is forecast for at least the
next week in northern New England. 

Drought conditions and dry soil conditions remained the same in Vermont over the past seven days, according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor.    

 Moderate drought still covered nearly a quarter of the state east of the Green Mountains and north of about Bradford. 

Abnormally dry conditions extended across the rest of northern Vermont east of the western foothills of the Green Mountains, according to the report, which was released Thursday morning. 

Vermont remains on the eastern edge of deepening drought in northeastern New England. Drought expanded a little in New Hampshire in the past week. All of Maine is in at least moderate drought, up from 75 percent of the state. Nearly 20 percent of Maine is in severe drought. And for the first time this drought cycle, a small area of the central Maine coast is in extreme drought.

The outlook isn't good. We've fallen into a weather pattern that soaks southern New England and leaves the north high and dry. 

Here in Vermont, the southern third of the state expect a half inch to an inch of rain between now and Sunday morning. Pretty decent. That tapers off to less than a quarter inch of rain north of Route 2. In Maine, up to a half inch of rain is forecast along the coast in the next day or so, but it won't be enough to really dent the drought. Up in northern Maine, little rain is forecast. 

Another problem: When there's a big El Nino, autumn tend to be dry in northern New England. Especially in September and October.  Not every time, but often. And sometimes that dry weather extends into the early winter. 

The drought could become worse. On top of that, all that greenery out there is going to turn brown and dry. Autumn leaves will fall, and become crunchy tinder underfoot, ready to start a new fire.

Already, there's been a recent forest fire in Vermont. A small, but difficult forest fire is burning on Hogback Mountain, near Bristol. Crews on Saturday had to haul water in backpacks and climb over ledges to get to the half-acre fire.

They dug a containment line around it, but it was burning underground. That's how dry it is. Even the half inch of rain that fell Saturday night did little to stop it. The blaze was likely an improperly extinguished recreational fire, according to the Bristol Fire Department. 

Just another reason to be vigilant about fire as the North Country dries out. 

 

A Noticeable Step Down Into A Vermont Autumn In The Coming Week

Like most of the landscape in Vermont's Champlain Valley
the big maple and other trees around my St. Albans house
are still green. That might start to change as noticeably
cooler weather settles in tomorrow and 
probably lasts through next week

 Very often, when seasons change, there are steps up or down. Sometimes in the fall, you get a stretch of weather that's relatively stable for a week.  

Then suddenly, it's a few degrees cooler, and that chillier regime holds for a week or so. Then it gets cooler yet. 

It's not an even process. As we know we get some lingering warm spells thrown in. Indian Summer, or just a stretch of warm days with balmy southwest breezes.

I bring this up because we're about to take a step down, further into autumn. 

This deeper dive into autumn won't start until tomorrow. Let's get into the details

TODAY

Still warm, and, truth be told, vaguely humid. Certainly not the humidity we deal with in the summer. Just a hint of moisture in the air that will make you sweaty if you really exert yourself. 

Highs should get into the 70s, but this won't be a late breaking brilliant summer day. Clouds should dominate, though there might be a break or two of sun, especially north. Don't count on it, though. 

 A weak disturbance should set off some rain and showers today, mostly in the southern half of Vermont. There might even be some brief downpours. We were already seeing a few very light showers in central Vermont as of 8 a.m., but the bulk of the rain will hit this afternoon

Rainfall in southern Vermont should come out near a quarter inch, maybe a little more in a few spots. 

The north, especially far northwest should be mostly dry, with rainfall amounts today ranging from nothing to maybe a tenth of an inch. 

FRIDAY

The step down to cooler weather should definitely be noticeable tomorrow. A cold front tonight will sweep in much drier air, leading to a sunny, delightful, slightly cool September day. Highs should reach the 60s for most of us. Maybe some upper 50s in the Northeast Kingdom and near 70 in the warmest banana belt valley towns. 

This will all happen with pleasant northwest breezes and under blue skies, flecked with a few clouds. 

That'll set us up for a cold night. I think the National Weather Service might issue frost advisories again for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks across the pond in New York. Lows in the cold hollows could easily touch freezing. 

For the rest of us, lows will probably be in 36 to 46 degree range by dawn Saturday, with the warmest readings near Lake Champlain. 

SATURDAY

Even cooler as autumn continues to establish itself. After the chilly morning, highs should only get into the 60s under generally sunny skies. Some clouds might increase later in the day. But all in all, a nice day. 

SUNDAY

This looks like the first cold, raw, damp day of the autumn. That first gloomy, chilly day usually comes about now, so it's right on schedule. A storm sliding by the south will provide more rain to the bottom half of Vermont, not so much to the north. 

Early guess are maybe a tenth of an inch of new rain up by the Canadian order to as much as three quarters to an inch of rain far south. 

Highs should only be near 60. Especially in rainier southern Vermont highs could hold only in the 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

At this point, it looks like another big, fat high pressure system will come down from central Canada and then stall nearby. Early in the week, probably Monday and/or Tuesday morning, we'll need to look at the risk of frost again. Monday will probably be the coolest  day, but it will slowly warm up after that. 

But not much. The step down to autumn weather is complete. Daily highs should be in the 60s Monday through Thursday. In the Northeast Kingdom, there will probably be at least give consecutive mornings, starting Saturday, with lows in the 30s. 

Forecasters are unsure whether the stalled high will keep skies sunny all week, or whether some moisture could work on in from the south with clouds and a risk of light rain. 

KEY MESSAGE 3: Our region should be under the influence of a
seasonably cool high pressure area gradually moving eastward to
start the work week. Temperatures should be about 10 degrees
below normal Monday trending to around normal on Wednesday. With
this pattern and 925 millibar temperatures falling to near the
10th percentile, Tuesday morning should be another frosty one 

for sheltered areas that already saw frost Saturday morning.s 

Repeated Rain Chances Keep Heading South Of Vermont

This is subject to change, but this is an guess as to how
much rain will fall between now and Saturday morning
As you can see northern areas largely miss out.
All the good soakers are going mostly to our south

 We could surely use more rain in Vermont. A series of weak, but very wet disturbance are about to turn much of the Northeast soggy. But the Green Mountain State looks like it will largely miss out. 

Southern Vermont might still eke out a decent wetting over the next several days. But unless there's an abrupt change in the forecast, northern Vermont will miss out. 

The first disturbance came in yesterday with ominous afternoon clouds in the north which amounted to......about three raindrops. 

It seems like days in advance, we think we're going to get a soaking, then it turns out not to be a big deal.Thi

Let's walk through the forecast;

TODAY

The warmest day of the week. Then gloom overhead should break up somewhat to become a variably cloudy day. Highs should get well into the 70s, with some banana belt warm valleys touching 80 degrees. One of summer's last gasps. 

THURSDAY

We're in a squeeze play between a front to the south that will have a little disturbance riding along it and a cold front coming in from the  north. 

This setup looks like it will create some rain in the south. But questions remain as to how far north this might get. Varying computer models disagree so we might have some surprises. For now. maybe a quarter to a third of an inch of rain might come down in southern Vermont. That would gradually taper off to a trace to a tenth of an inch north. 

Again, results may vary. 

We're into September now, so we're more likely to see just plain rain rather than scattered showers and thunderstorms. So, probably no thunder tomorrow. Highs should make it into the low and mid 70s for most of us so not bad. 

FRIDAY

We'll squeeze in a classic autumn day. We should have sunshine with highs in the 60s to near 70. A brisk northwest breeze will add a chilly bite to the air. Humidity will plummet, says the National Weather Service, setting us up for a chilly night with frost possible in colder places again

SATURDAY

Dawn Saturday is looking a little colder than the nippy one we experienced yesterday.  Just a couple degrees makes a big difference on whether you'll see frost or not. Only one or two isolated areas had frost yesterday. Saturday morning, this frost might hit a few more of the colder hollows of northern and central Vermont. 

I imagine some places might end up falling under a frost advisory. Stay tuned for updates.  The rest of the day should be more typical September. Highs in the 60s with maybe some increasing clouds. 

The next rainy system looks like it would arrive Saturday night and Sunday. Early indications are this one could, once again, go by to our south, but there's plenty of time for that forecast to change

Changeable Vermont Weather, Yes, But Overall, We Must Be Setting Some Sort Of Record For Steady Temperatures

Henry the Weather Dog, right, gauges the
wind and cloud cover yesterday at a 
St. Albans dog park. His much larger
friend, Cooper, left, assists with the effort

As expected, this morning was arguably he coldest of the season here in Vermont.  Burlington got to at least 45 degrees, which is nothing weird for mid-September. The record low for today is 30 degrees, so we missed that by a mile.  

Elsewhere, as of 7 a.m. it was 36 degrees in Lyndonville, 37 in Newport, and 39 in Montpelier.  I'm sure there was a patch or two of frost in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom. It's fall, folks. Astronomical autumn doesn't hit until September 22. But autumn weather in Vermont always hits before that date.

That changeable weather we've been talking about has arrived, and every day this week will be different from the previous. But there will be no extremes. Just noticeable day-to-day differences, but nothing to write home to the mom or whoever. 

Given the fact the El Nino is looming and climate change tends makes the weather more wild and out of control, Vermont has been blessed with incredibly steady-state weather. 

Incredibly, since August 10 - more than a month - high temperatures have only bounced between 69 and 82 degrees in Burlington. That's a range of only 13 degrees. It's as if the bland, pleasant weather San Diego normally receives plopped itself down in Vermont. 

Based on historical records, high temperatures in Burlington during this period could have potentially ranged from the upper 40s to upper 90s. That gives you an idea of how steady state temperatures have been. 

Enjoy it while you can. The other shoe will drop eventually. 

High temperatures probably won't go outside that 13-degree range for the next few days, but might finally get lower than that 69 degree floor by next weekend. Here are the details: 

TODAY

As is almost always the case, the morning sunshine should boost temperatures quickly into the 60s to around 70. Clouds will increase during the day as a weak front approaches. Tonight will be much warmer than last night, because of the clouds, with lows mostly in the low to mid 50s. 

WEDNESDAY

That weak front, as it's fading away overhead,  might deposit a few isolated showers early in the morning. This will be so, so far from a soaking.Most of us will get a trace of rain, or nothing.  The "wettest" places could have a few hundredths of an inch. The rest of the day should stay dry, but clouds will linger. We'll call it partly to mostly cloudy.   

It'll be warm, though, the balmiest day of the week, as highs get into the 70s. Maybe near 80 in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

THURSDAY

Another weather disturbance will come in from the west in our fast-changing weather pattern. This one looks like it might go by to our south. That means southern Vermont would get more rain than the north. As it stands now, this won't be a blockbuster. 

There might be a quarter to a third of an inch of rain in southern Vermont. North of Route 2, we'll only see less than a tenth of an inch. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us the high temperature forecast is tricky. It depends on when the rain arrives, and how much falls. For now, it looks like it will get into the 70s before the rain arrives, mostly in southern and central Vermont.  If the rain arrives sooner, highs will only be in the 60s, especially in southern Vermont. 

FRIDAY

Tentatively looks good. If current forecasts hold, it would be much like yesterday - partly sunny with highs in the 60s. But since weather systems are moving so quickly, it's hard to say for sure if this will actually play out as forecast. 

NEXT WEEKEND

Some sort of storm system looks like it might be near the Northeast. Some computer models give Vermont a nice soaker rain. But we've seen this movie before. We're promised a needed soaking, and it doesn't really materialize.

In fact, although the American computer models are currently dumping a fair amount of rain on Vermont sometime next weekend, the European model sends most or all of the rain to our south. 

As usual, we'll just have to wait for clarity on that. 

 

 

Cool Autumnal Day In Vermont, Then Rapid Weather Changes, But No Huge Extremes

Thunderstorms visible west of St. Albans just after
sunset Sunday. At my house, we had only sprinkles,
but brief downpours hit just a mile to the north.

Changeable weather seems to be the story in Vermont lately.

Sunday was a great example. We started out with early morning rain. Then we had a delightfully sunny and warm day, especially in western Vermont. Then some downpours and thunder rumbled across far northern and southern Vermont in the evening.  

That changeable theme will continue the rest of the week. The switches in the weather might not be as rapid as on Sunday, but it still will be classic "If you don't like the weather in Vermont wait a minute, it will change. "

Let's get into it. 

TODAY

The cold front swept through overnight, and early this morning it was beginning to whoosh in cool, autumnal air. Dawn temperatures across Vermont were still mild, in the 50s to near 60. But gusty northwest winds won't allow readings to rise much, despite a lot of sunshine.

High temperatures for most of Vermont will get into the 60s as the northwest breezes continue.

It was still cloudy early this morning across much of northern Vermont, especially over and east of the Green Mountains. That will eventually clear up. The Northeast Kingdom won't get the sunshine until we get into this afternoon. That will keep high temperatures in some towns up there only in the 50s. 

The winds will die off later this afternoon and this evening. 

That sets us up for what will yet again become the coldest night of year so far. 

TUESDAY

We'll start the day with temperatures in the 38 to 45 degree range. Most of us, anyway. But the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom could see a frost early Tuesday morning. It'll be a little cooler than Saturday morning, so the cold spots that barely missed out on a frost could get one. 

A frost advisory is in effect for far northern New Hampshire. So far, there's not advisory for any part of Vermont, because the frost isn't expected to be widespread. It's possible an advisory might be issued for the NEK and Adirondacks later today.

South winds will increase, just as they did on Saturday. So the cold morning will quickly transition to a fairly mild afternoon with highs reaching to within a few degrees either side of 70. Clouds will increase, too, but we're not in for any real rain. Maybe some isolated light showers Tuesday night. 

WEDNESDAY

A warmer day. Cloud and isolated showers should break up in the afternoon for sunshine. Highs should get into the 70s to possibly near 80. 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

The weather is going to quickly switch back and forth late in the week and the weekend. A fast west to east to air flow will fling weather disturbances and bright, sunny high pressure systems. That means we'll go back and forth between showers and sunshine. 

It's so hard to know exactly when the showers will hit and when the sunshine will prevail. It's also hard to say how much rain we'll get with each little disturbance. 

Early guesses are showers will come through Thursday, with sunshine Friday and more showers on Saturday and maybe Sunday.  But that could shift as updates come in.

Frustrating for sure if you have late week plans, but that's the trouble with early autumn. But at least we have no extreme weather coming up. 

No extreme heat, no extreme growing season-ending cold, no fading hurricanes flooding our streams, no wind storms, no severe thunderstorms. We get to enjoy the tranquility of September 

It's True Autumn In Vermont Now, And You'll Notice It

Raindrops on a flower this morning in St. Albans, 
Vermont. There's a chance of more showers and 
thunderstorms later today, but some places 
might not get any new rain at all

Typically in Vermont, the first week or so of September often still feels like summer. Then, that warmth fades away. 

We pretty much are feeling that this year. Sure, we'll have a few summer-ish days yet. We'll have several more warm days before winter hits, of course. 

Today will be among those warmer days.  This morning, the vaguely humid, wet air still had the distinct aroma of autumn, not summer. 

Yesterday, Vermont was blessed with yet another gorgeous Saturday. Since at least June, Saturdays have tended to be nice. Just the fortunate rhythm of the weather patterns, I guess. 

After a Saturday morning in Burlington that was the coolest since June 3. it was also comfortably warm that afternoon.  But it felt nothing like summer. Just a gorgeous September day. 

Let's look ahead at what's coming. 

TODAY

Most of Vermont had some rain overnight and early this morning. It looks like most places had a third of an inch of rain. A few places received close to a half inch of rain.  It was still raining early today in eastern Vermont, which is great, as it's needed.  

This Vermont rain is the outer edge of much heavier downpours in southern New England. Flash flood warnings were up in Connecticut, and those flooding rains were spreading toward Rhode Island and Massachusetts. 

Today will actually not be a terribly bad weather day. Better than I thought 24 hours ago. Maybe not as rainy or stormy as originally thought. That said, we still have a shower and even a thunderstorm risk. 

Some clearing will arrive this afternoon, which could send us one of two ways as a cold front approaches. 

On one hand, dry and sinking air behind this morning's rain could help squelch showers and thunderstorms that want to develop. On the other hand, the sun could increase the amount of instability in the air. That would encourage some thunderstorms. 

Any showers that do develop will be mostly in the late afternoon and evening. 

The bottom line is, we still have a marginal risk of severe storms today. That means there could be isolated instances of damaging winds or large hail. Most of us will be fine. 

This is also a conditional forecast, meaning we don't know whether the sinking air or the strong sun will win out. We might see no thunderstorms, or quite a few of them, depending on which scenario wins. 

Showers should continue into the evening.

MONDAY

You know those autumn days I mentioned above? Monday will be one of those. It'll be even chillier than it was on Friday. Morning clouds will yield to sunshine. Those clouds might hold tough for much of the day in the Northeast Kingdom.  Despite afternoon sunshine in most of Vermont, temperatures will hold in the 60s. Some colder spots in the Northeast Kingdom could stay in the 50s. 

The cold hollows in Vermont and New York need to worry about frost Monday night. 

TUESDAY

The morning will start cold. Dawn temperatures will be between 38 to 45 degrees, a little colder than it was Saturday morning. Frost will probably glisten on the grass in the coldest hollow of eastern Vermont. That's nothing unusual for this time of year, but it's a reminder that it's September. 

Much like Saturday, south winds will help boost afternoon temperatures into the low 70s. A weak front that will be falling apart over northern New England Tuesday night. That will create clouds. The clouds, and some south winds will hold temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s. 

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We've been talking about a fast west to east air flow that makes forecasts challenging. Forecasters think a weather disturbance might come through with some rain later Wednesday and Thursday. But we're not sure if that will actually happen or not. It could go too far south or north of us. 

It'll be on the seasonably warm side, with highs Wednesday through Friday in the 70s and lows in the 50s. But beyond that, it looks like cooler weather will settle in.