Vermont Frost Was Pretty Scattered This Morning; Nice Days Until Potential Weekend Nor'easter; Coast To Be Hit Hard

Plants were covered on my St. Albans deck this morning,
as a I heeded a frost advisory. I actually didn't think it
would get dangerously cold for the plants, and it
only got down to 39 degrees. No harm in being
cautious though. 

  I kind of figured the frost this morning would be pretty light and very scattered, with many places escaping trouble. You can't be too careful , though, with the frost risk for your outdoor plants, so that I think is why there was a frost advisory in much of Vermont.  

Burlington was at 41 degrees at 7 a.m. so no frost there. My covered plants on my St. Albans, Vermont deck were cowering beneath the sheets to escape a not-so-frosty 39 degrees. 

Most places in Vermont at dawn were in the 30s. Morrisville was at 32 degrees at 6 a.m. indicating at least some of us had frosts or even a freeze.

Let's get into what will happen in the next couple of days.  Then look at the impending nor'easter in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, and what it means for us here in Vermont. Spoiler: There's still a lot of unanswered questions about it. 

TODAY

Another beauty. Highs in the 60s, under lots of sun. Tonight will be cool again, and there might be new frost advisories. But if you didn't see frost this morning there's an excellent chance you won't see any tomorrow morning, either. 

THURSDAY

Nice again! Highs will into the 60s under sunny skies once again.

THE NOR'EASTER

Instead of continuing on with the daily forecast here, we should describe this impending storm. It's going to cause a lot of trouble from the Mid-Atlantic States on through New England, especially along the coastlines. 

We already have coastal flood warnings in Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey starting this afternoon, and the storm hasn't even wound up yet. 

I have seen some social media weather pundits falsely comparing this storm to Superstorm Sandy or the Perfect Storm of 1991.  That's just for clicks and profits. 

But still, this could be a pretty memorable storm, mostly because it will linger off the New England  coast for so long. 

The general idea of what the storm will do is being to take shape. It will start forming about now well off the North Carolina coast, then slowly move northward to somewhere off then coast of New England. Then it will become trapped and spin in that general vicinity for a couple days before gradually weekend and heading out to sea early next week. 

Exactly where it goes will decide how bad the weather gets along the coast. The storm's path will also determine how much of an effect it has on Vermont. Some models have the storm heading backwards for a time, moving toward the west and actually making landfall in New England. Others models keep it offshore. 

Given that, we don't know how rainy, how windy, or how chilly it will get in Vermont and where. 

I imagine clouds will slowly increase later Thursday into Friday as the storm gets a little closer. 

Here are the forecast challenges

Rain:  

Strong high pressure to the north and west will have very dry air with it. So rain moving westward from the storm into Vermont would run into that dry air.  That would mean a sharp cutoff between fairly substantial rain to the south and east and very little to the north and west. Where that line between wet and dry sets up is a complete unknown as of now. 

Wind

The closer the storm comes to us, the windier it will get. This won't be a huge blowdown by any means, but if the storm gets close enough, some gusts could get strong enough to knock down a few trees and power lines. If we do see gusty winds they're most likely in the southern Green Mountains. The channeling effects of mountains on either side other Champlain Valley might make things relatively gusty there, too.

Temperatures

Expect highs in the low 50s to low 70s over the weekend.  That huge range is by no means helpful if you're deciding what to wear if you're out and about Saturday. The problem is that dry air. Where it rains, evaporation cooling could drop temperatures well down into the 50s. If there's just thin clouds, especially north and west, temperatures could to 70 degrees.  

Bottom Line: 

If you have weekend travel plans to Cape Cod and the Islands, Long Island, the Jersey Shore or places like Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, or Ocean City, Maryland, fuhgeddaboudit.  Coastal flooding, severe beach erosion, gusty winds, power outages and inundated coastal roads will not make things pleasant.  Plus, you'll just be in the way if there are any evacuations of coastal homes and buildings. 

If you stay in Vermont really expect anything this weekend. You'll need to be flexible with your plans because with this situation, we might not know if it will be sunny or rainy until almost the last moment. A small shift in the storm track will make a huge difference as to who gets what. 

Unlike at the coast, Vermont will suffer little or no damage from this storm, so that's a plus.  If we get really, really lucky, we could get some badly needed rain. 

We will try to monitor this storm as best we can as the event gets closer.  

Wild Weather Pattern To Bring Record Warmth To Vermont, Rest Of Northeast, Too

The six to 10 day outlook through November 12 
shows a sharp contrast between a toasty east and frigid
west. Here in New England, record high temperatures
are forecast late this week and into the weekend. 

It's been remarkably sunny and warm in late October and as November opened, aside from one cloudy day Tuesday. 

The sun and warmth are about to ramp up into record territory here in Vermont in the coming days. 

The next few days will feature highs in the 60s to near 70, with the warmest day on Saturday. The high temperatures on Saturday actually have a shot at tying or breaking the all time record for hottest November day. 

Typically in a Vermont November, it's cloudy, chilly and damp, with cold breezes, and even colder rain or snow showers. Highs this time of year should be within a couple degrees either side of 50.

This is far from typical November weather. 

There's already been record warmth in the Midwest, and that air is headed our way.  In North Dakota, often a frigid place by November, it was 77 degrees in Bismarck yesterday. Minneapolis reached 76 degrees on Wednesday, besting the previous record high of 72. Mobridge, South Dakota hit 80 degrees, making it the hottest November day on record there. 

The pattern that's setting up is bringing winter to the western United States and summer to the East. At least for a few days. In between, severe weather and tornadoes, more typical of spring that autumn, are forecast to rake parts of Texas and Oklahoma today. 

Between now and Sunday, the epicenter of the warmth, relative to average anyway, is setting up in New England. That's why the record high temperatures are in the forecast. 

The all-time highest temperature for November in Burlington is 75 degrees, set in 1948 and 1950.  The forecast high in Burlington Saturday is 73 degrees, which would break the record high for the date of 72 degrees.

I've noticed that since late October, many of these balmy, sunny days have been coming in a little warmer than forecast.  Given that trend, it's possible we could break the month's record. One thing that could prevent that all time record is strengthening southwest winds on Saturday that could bring just a touch of cooler air off of Lake Champlain. 

Saturday night, you'll want to leave some windows open and you might almost be tempted to reach for the air conditioner. Overnight "lows" in the Champlain Valley will be in the low 60s, which is normal for July.  Other areas of Vermont will stay in the toasty 50s. 

A weakening cold front will arrive Sunday with some showers, but it will stay mild through Monday. Another front will bring a brief shot of chilly air to us next Tuesday and Wednesday, and we might even see a day or two of very slightly below normal temperatures.

But it will stay sunny through that brief cool period, contributing to this very oddly bright November. 

The weather pattern looks to say warm and dry overall into the middle of the month. 

Before you get too smug, we all know this oddly warm, sunny November weather will eventually be taken away seemingly in an instant.  There's several examples of November weather whiplash, in which record early November warmth is followed by record wintry cold. 

For instance, on November 6, 1938, the temperature in Burlington reached 74 degrees, which at the time was the all time hottest November reading. By November 26 of that year, the temperature dropped to minus 3, which remains the coldest November reading on record in Burlington.

In 1996, it was 74 degrees on November 8, but down to 10 above just six days later. In 1989, it was 73 degrees on the 16th, the warmest for so late in the season. This was followed by a temperature of 6 above just a week later, and we ended up with the coldest December on record that year.

You get the idea. 

We won't necessarily go from one extreme to the next in this go-around of early November warmth, but do enjoy it. You won't see weather like this again, probably at least until April.