Vermont Rainfall Was Mostly A Bust, Typical November Week Coming, Weekend Storm?

A little snow is visible on the trees through the dense
fog atop Mount Mansfield this morning. Overall,
precipitation was less than forecast overnight. 
The week will bring frequent chances of light
rain or snow showers, but nothing big until
at least Friday. 

 The long period of dark, grey, overcast in Vermont that started early yesterday and lasted through this morning didn't help us at all. 

We expected more than a quarter inch of rain, but we were cheated, especially in central and northern Vermont. Rain passed to our south, west and east. Some very light rain and drizzle was going on as dawn broke, but that won't last long. 

Many places just had a trace of rain, or a few hundredths of an inch. 

High elevations had a little snow overnight, but it didn't amount to much. A web cam from atop Mount Mansfield, for instance, showed a little new snow. It's unclear yet whether this was an inch or snow or not. 

If not, the record for the first inch of snow on the ground atop Mount Mansfield could be tied tomorrow or broken on Tuesday. 

It's too bad we didn't get the forecast rain. . We needed it. During the week, we will have frequent chances of rain and snow, but it won't amount to much. But there is a chance of a larger storm toward next weekend, which might, or might not spread a more substantial rain or snow our way. Yes, it's possible we'll see our first measurable valley snow of the season, but there's some big ifs attached to it.

It might or might not happen, but get your snow tires on anyway, just in case. 

Let's get into the updated forecast for the week:  

TODAY

The light rain, drizzle and fog this morning should thin out. We might even see some sun this afternoon, especially in western Vermont. 

Especially in the Champlain Valley, it looks like it could turn mostly sunny for a short while this afternoon before more clouds come in this evening. Just know that there is some ifs ands or buts with this forecast. Sometimes, low level moisture has a hard time getting scoured out of valleys this time of year. There's a chance that the sunshine forecast will be another bust. 

But for now the National Weather Service is being optimistic, so we'll hope they're right and things brighten up for a little while. 

Highs should be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees, which is about normal for this time of year. North winds should taper off a little and become westerly this afternoon. 

MONDAY

Starting Monday, we're in a fast northwest flow for the week. That means we'll be sprayed with rapid fire, weak disturbances racing in from the northwest. 

The first one comes through late tonight and tomorrow morning. We'll have some light showers in the morning, but we'll only have a few hundredth of an inch of rain. Or even nothing in southeastern Vermont. 

Unlike today, it'll stay cloudy. Highs once again should come close to 50 degrees.

TUESDAY

More than 48 hours out, it's hard to judge the timing of all this disturbance, so we have to go broad brush. No saying what time of day it will rain or snow. Just know it will be typically chilly for November. And we won't see a lot of sun.

On Tuesday, early guesses are some light showers would be most likely in the afternoon and evening. It will probably be cold enough for a little snow way up in the mountains. Again that's pretty normal for November. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

As the northwest flow continues, it will get colder. It'll stay partly to mostly cloudy with that ever-present chance of light rain or snow showers. The National Weather Service is going for highs generally in the 40s those days. Cool, but not out of the ordinary for November. 

At this time last year, most of northern Vermont had several inches of snow on the ground and daytime highs were only in the 30s. 

FRIDAY/NEXT WEEKEND

A lot of the models are still  hinting at a pretty strong storm or nor'easter toward Friday or the weekend. There's still lots of disagreement on how strong the storm will be, its path, and even whether it will fully develop. That means we have no idea yet what that means for Vermont. 

This morning's models were a little more bullish on fairly heavy precipitation for us. It's unclear it that means, rain, snow or both. Plus, forecasts this far out tend to flip flop dramatically. A very wet or very snowy scenario in the models today could change to a dry forecast when the another run of computer models come out. 

For now, as mentioned above, now is a great time to get your snow tires on, even if the weekend storm for Vermont turns into just another partly sunny day.  

The snow will hit eventually.