Not-So-Scary Vermont Halloween Forecast, But Past Years Served Up Some Frights

I guess this will do for a Halloween illustration. Gloomy,
misty, stormy and dark with a tilting tree ready to
pounce on passersby, or block the escape route
from the Haunted Mansion. Spoiler: Halloween weather
in Vermont this evening will be anything but scary 

 It's Halloween, and all the kiddies want to get as much loot as possible as they spook our neighborhoods trick or treating.   

If the weather is good, it makes this "task" easier.

I'm happy to report that this Halloween will feature Vermont weather that is decidedly better than the weather on most Halloweens.

Temperatures this evening will be somewhere in the 50s, which is definitely on the warm side for this time of year. It might rain a tiny bit, but probably after 11 p.m., when most kids are already in a candy coma. 

The days around Halloween have often stirred up some historically scary weather in much of the nation in recent decades, but aside from one notable exception in 2019, Vermont Halloweens have been more treat that trick. 

More on that in a moment. 

Here in the Green Mountain State, trick or treaters usually face evening weather with temperatures in the 40s.  It's an unsettled time of year, with spooky Ma Nature often stirring the pot with rain and sometimes even snow.

Overnight lows don't usually conjure up the spirit of how chilly or warm it is during peak trick or treating hours. So I go with daytime highs, as the temperature will probably be just a bit lower than the high temperature that day.

The most wintry Halloween was in 1913, when the high temperature that day was 32 degrees. A close second is 1975, when readings stayed in the low to mid 30s all day, with persistent snow flurries. 

The snowiest Halloween was in 1993. Burlington had 1.3 inches of snow that day. It was part of a wild early seasons snow that started Halloween evening and continued into November 1 and deposited nine inches of snow on Burlington.

I remember that snowy Halloween evening as I was on the Church Street Marketplace in Burlington having a snowball fight with a nun, a prostitute, Frankenstein, Michael Jackson and Kurt Cobain. 

Yeah, one of my more bizarro experiences. 

SCARY HALLOWEEN, 2019

The warmest Halloween was in 2019, when the high temperature was 71 degrees. Sounds great, right? Nope! It was probably the most frightening Halloween on record in Vermont. At least in terms of weather. 

A storm that 2019 Halloween also spread torrential rains into Vermont, causing a disastrous flood, especially along and north of Route 2.

Burlington had a whopping 3.3 inches of rain, mostly during the evening of October 31. Rainfall totals were as high as 5.26 inches in East Berkshire. 

Urban flooding started the night, and that quickly translated to stream and river flooding. Eight area rivers reached moderate to major flood stage, with the Missisquoi at North Troy hitting a record high crest. 

Extensive flooding was seen along the Missisquoi, Lamoille, Winooski rivers in Vermont and Ausable River in New York. 

More than 300 Vermont homes suffered flood damage and public infrastructure losses due to the flooding amounted to $5 million. 

The back side of the storm featured damaging winds that caused widespread damage across much of Vermont. More than 120,000 homes and businesses lost power, including my own. 

I've owned my house since 2007 and this was the only time I've had to file an insurance claim due to storm damage. Definitely a scary Halloween in 2019.

Other epic storms have slapped the Northeast around Halloween in recent decades.  Ma Nature knows how to turn up the fright. 

PERFECT STORM, HALLOWEEN 1991

Late October, 1991 brought the famous "Perfect Storm" to the Northeast. The storm inspired the book and movie about the sinking of the Andrea Gail, in which six fishermen lost their lives.

The Perfect Storm stayed offshore, but was so strong that it caused coastal destruction from the Canadian Maritimes to Florida. A total of 13 people died, and hundreds of homes and other buildings along the coast were damaged or destroyed.

The man who would later become my husband ignored evacuation warnings and stayed during the storm at a beach front home in Matunuck, Rhode Island.  Stacked concrete blocks, measuring four feet by four feet, protected the home, or so he thought.

Jeff somehow slept through the storm. He woke up to find the Perfect Storm had swept away or sank these heavy concrete blocks. They'd disappeared.  That's the power of that storm.  

Meanwhile,  in that 1991 Halloween season, well to the west, a historic blizzard would bury Minnesota and other areas in record amounts of snow. Here in Vermont, we escaped both storms. It was just seasonably breezy and chilly here. 

SUPERSTORM SANDY, 2012

A little before Halloween, 2012, Superstorm Sandy, off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, made its now infamous left hook and slammed into the Jersey shore on October 29, causing one of the worst disasters on record in that region. 

The storm caused 285 deaths, with 125 of those in the United States. Storm surges in New Jersey and New York were up to 14 feet above normal low tide. Thousands of homes were destroyed or severely damaged

The storm flooded 17 percent of New York City's land mass and inundated many subway tunnels. It took eight years to fully repair that damage.

The huge size of Sandy allowed it to cause wind damage as far west as Michigan and Wisconsin and as far north as Ontario and Quebec. 

Here in Vermont, damage was limited to fallen trees and power lines. Up to 35,000 Vermont homes and businesses lost power. Route 9 west of Brattleboro was closed for a time due to fallen trees.  A spook but a kill for the Green Mountain State.

Given the history of frightening storms around Halloween, we should all enjoy the treat of benign weather this year. 

Winters (For Most Of Us) Are Getting Shorter

Climatologist Brian Brettschneider did some interesting
number crunching to find that by at least one measure,
winters are getting shorter with climate change. 

 As we launch into a late autumn spell of warm, dry weather, and await winter, we have additional evidence that winters for most areas of the northern and central U.S., and Alaska, are getting shorter. 

Including here in Vermont. 

Alaska climatologist Brian Brettschneider crunched a lot of numbers and posted his results on Twitter, under his handle @Climatologist49.

Brettschneider clearly has a lot more patience with math than I do.  But do check out his twitter feed. It's interesting and very accessible and easy to follow for non-scientists. 

Here's what Brettschneider did:  He looked at 292 weather stations across the U.S.. and figured out for each station what the first early winter five-day period where the average temperature was at or below 32 degrees. He did the same for the last such cold period of the winter at each station.

He compared this data the way it was 70 years ago, and what things are like today.  He found that for 90 percent of the stations, the time between the first cold period of early winter and the last cold period in late winter had shrunk over the past seven decades. That means only ten percent of the stations have had longer winters. 

By at least one measure, winters are getting shorter in
most areas of the United States, including here in Vermont. 

Judging from Brettschneider's map, it seems that in general, the winters grew shorter by the most days in areas near the southern reaches where you can have a long period of sub-freezing winter days. (I posted the map on this post. 

It's interesting that in some areas, sites with shorter winters are in close proximity to ones that had longer winters. This could be due to the vagarities of stations at difference elevations, or whether the measuring site moved a little since the early 1950s.

I see that here in Vermont, the winters have gotten somewhat shorter, according to Brettschneider's data. 

In Burlington, the interval between the first and last five day average of 32 degrees is 10 to 20 days shorter than it was in 1953.  For Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, the change is smaller, amounting to ten days or less.

Interesting, parts of northern New York seem to have had very slightly longer winters, at least under the parameters of this research. 

For us here in Vermont, this data is especially important, given the prominence of our ski industry. I can infer from this data that the period in winter in which ski areas can make snow is growing shorter. 

 And it highlights the difficulty cross country ski centers in low elevations have had in recent winters with warm spells. 

It's all just one of many indications that the times, they are a'changing with the world's climate.

 

More Warm Weather Coming In Remarkably Toasty Vermont Late Autumn

Frost on some garden plants in St. Albans, Vermont this 
morning. Although we've just had a couple seasonably
chilly days, another dramatic warmup is in store. 

 After a couple frosty mornings, and bright, cool, pleasant days, the weather in Vermont is about to turn toasty again for an extended period. 

That's good news if you're like me, and chronically late in buttoning things down for the winter. This calm, mild weather is buying us a little time before winter inevitably settles in. 

Recent autumns have been front loaded with warmth, with often record and near record temperatures early on, in September and early October, with a sharp cooling trend in late October and November.

This year is turning out a little different. It was warmish, but not particularly toasty in September and the first half of October. But the heat has really turned up lately.

So far this autumn, Burlington hasn't had a daily high temperature under 50 degrees, and won't have a day that stays in the 40s for at least a week, probably more. 

The last time we had an autumn in which we waited  until after November 1 to see a daytime high in the 40s was way back in 1994, when that kind of cool weather didn't arrive until November 10.  

We're still waiting for our first snow flurry of the season in the Champlain Valley, too. On average, that comes around October 15.  It won't snow for at least a week. The last time we waited this long for the first flakes of the season was on November 16, 2007.

Despite the past two days being just ever so slightly on the cool side, another big warm up is on the way. 

Or course, it won't be nearly as hot as that record 78 degree reading in Burlington this past Wednesday, but it will be up there. 

As we end October and start November, normal highs around 50 degrees, and conditions are often cloudy and gloomy.  November is on average Vermont's cloudiest month of the year. 

However, November, 2022 is opening really warm. We'll hit at least 60 degrees tomorrow and on Halloween. Chances are also quite high that each of the first seven days of November will make it to at least 60 degrees. 

After a seasonably cool evening tonight, it looks like nights through the first week of November will be mild, too. Lows will mostly be in the 40s, with a few nights possibly bottoming out at just around 50 degrees.

Forecasters have backed away from forecasts of rain on Halloween and are now saying there might be, at most, a few scattered light showers. Little or no rain is coming for the first part of November. Most days will be partly to mostly sunny through the opening week of the month. 

That's actually kind of too bad.

We were doing well replenishing groundwater with some pretty stiff storms in September and October. It wouldn't hurt to see more drenching rains before the ground freezes. 

But, it's hard to complain about such nice weather coming up.  In the worst years, winter sets in during the first or second week of November.

Vermont winters are long enough. We can live without any extra snow and cold this time of year. I'll take the balmy sunshine, thank you. 

Warming Winters Threaten To Worsen Water Quality, Especially In Northeast, Midwest

Workers are installing pipelines along the road I live on
in St. Albans, Vermont as part of a larger project to
improve water quality in Lake Champlain (barely visible
in the distance in this photo).  The project would
remove pollutants from water along and near 
Interstate 89 before the water can percolate into the lake.

 There's an annoying construction project going on in front of my St. Albans, Vermont house, but it's for a good cause. 

The road out front is down to one lane while the construction goes on, and there's a bothersome, temporary traffic signal directly in front of my driveway. To get in and out of my property, I have to either sneak in front of stopped traffic or find a miracle gap in the queue at the light. 

And there's a lot of construction noise and dust. 

Like I said, it's for a good cause, so I don't mind it at all. A temporary inconvenience that I hope will make Lake Champlain less yucky. 

The construction in front of my house is part of a larger $3 million project along nearby Interstate 89 to steer stormwater into retaining ponds, where they gradually percolate into the ground, purifying in the process.  It's an effort to control ongoing pollution problems in Lake Champlain. 

The problem pollutant they're trying to control is phosphorus.  A recent study says these efforts are needed. 

Researchers from the University of Colorado, University of Kansas, University of Michigan and University of Vermont say warmer winters are increasing risks to water quality in 40 states, with New England and swaths of the Midwest at particular risk. 

In Vermont, and a lot of other states, climate change is making phosphorus pollution worse, as Vermont Public reports. Yes, it's yet another of a zillion reasons why climate change screws things up. 

Here in Vermont, climate change is in general making things warmer and wetter (despite the occasional drought interrupting this new wetness). 

This warmer climate means that in winter, there's now a greater chance we'll have more heavy rain storms in addition to the usual snow, notes Carol Adair with the University of Vermont. 

 Says Vermont Public:

"On top of that, many New England states have rich soils, full of phosphorus and nitrogen. In the past, these nutrients would reliably stay put under the snow until spring."

Now, it rains, sometimes hard, in the winter.  We've long had problems with phosphorus flowing into streams and lakes during torrential summer thunderstorms. 

Vermont Public continues:

"'The other thing that's very interesting about winter events is that from the limited data that we have, and from what we know about winter events and what they carry downstream, a winter event seems to carry more stuff, more sediment, more nutrients downstream than a similar event would during the growing season,' Adair said. 'So the same cubic foot of water in the winter is carrying more stuff than the same cubic foot during the summer.'"

With this increase in winter rain storms, expensive stormwater projects like the one going on in front of my house seem like they will be more needed than ever.  Farmers will continue to need to adjust how and when they spread manure on fields. 

Here in the Town of St. Albans, myself and all single family homeowners are now being charged $50 per year to help pay for a series of stormwater projects. St. Albans Bay is particularly prone to water quality and phosphorus issues.

These often cause potentially toxic algae blooms in the summer. 

Give the news that winter rains are just going to make water quality problems worse, I should be glad about the loud bangs and creaking construction equipment I hear in front of my house. 

  

 

Record Shattering Late Autumn Heat Wave Ending In Vermont, At Least For Now

The last golden leaves of autumn cling to a tree in St.
Albans, Vermont Wednesday during record breaking late
season heat. 

 The spell of oddly warm, humid weather we've just had pretty much snuck up on me, but the whole episode was pretty impressive for late October. It was really one for the record books. 

Many records for warmth fell in and around Vermont on Wednesday.  I already mentioned the record high low temperature of 59 set on Tuesday.

Wednesday, the records became an avalanche that rewrote the books. 

Here's a rundown:

Burlington, Vermont reached 78 degrees, breaking the record high for the date of 75, back in 1963. That high of 78 was also the warmest for so late in the season.  The low temperature in Burlington yesterday was 59, also a record for warmest low temperature.

Essentially, Wednesday was a pretty normal day for late August, not late October. 

St. Johnsbury reached 70 degrees, breaking their record for the date. Montpelier didn't break a record high did have a record high low temperature of 62 degrees, breaking the old record by a whopping nine degrees.

Over in New York, it almost hit 80 degrees, as Massena hit 79 for a date record. Plattsburgh tied its record high of 75 degrees. 

A striking thing about the warmth was it was accompanied by unusual humidity for so late in the season, as I noted in yesterday's post. Dew points were near 60 degrees. That meant that Burlington was both hotter and more humid on Wednesday than Houston, Texas and New Orleans, Louisiana. 

The record heat in Vermont and New York came as a sort of semi tropical system dumped heavy rain on eastern New England. That system brought warm, humid air to New England. Another weaker storm swirled over Pennsylvania on Wednesday.

This set up caused air to sink between the two storms. That was over us.  That encouraged the sky to partially clear, and the sun helped heat the already warm atmosphere even more. The sinking air probably also warmed a bit more due to compression.

Eastern Vermont was slightly cooler but still warm and muggy as that ocean storm sent rain and clouds northward up the Connecticut River Valley for a good part of the day. 

Up until now, this autumn had been a departure from the past six or seven falls, each of which featured spells of record high temperatures. 

Satellite image from Wednesday afternoon shows plenty
of breaks in the clouds over Vermont between two
storm systems. That clearing contributed to the
record high temperatures in the region. 

This year, we had our share of warm autumn days, but we weren't breaking records until now.

A sharp cold front has moved through Vermont, decisively ending the record heat. We've already had our high temperatures for the day as it was near 60 just after midnight.  It'll stay near 50 for the rest of the day with a chilly northwest wind. 

Tonight will be the coldest night of the autumn so far, but it won't be all that much colder than average.  Burlington and most of the rest of the Champlain Valley will have its first frost and freeze of the season tonight. 

Pretty remarkable that it's October 27 and I'll be able to harvest a couple tomatoes, some snow peas, lettuce and spinach ahead of the frost today in my St. Albans, Vermont garden.

There are no freeze warnings for tonight despite the still active gardens because usually, it's long past growing season by now. 

The relative chill will last into Saturday, but another warm up is headed our way.  It won't be as warm as it was yesterday, but temperatures should be well above normal starting Sunday and continuing into next week.

Those highs will reach the low 60s compared to the normal highs of near 50 degrees we should expect as we open the month of November.

We even see some uncertain signs that we could have a couple days of near record highs again toward the end of next week. We shall wait and see on that one. 

This weather has to be frustrating for the more enthusiastic Vermont ski areas who like to open as early as possible.

Killington says the want to open on November 11 this year, but if the weather pattern holds the way it is forecast to, they might not be able to. 

Most Vermont ski areas like to open by around Thanksgiving, and there still will be time for either snowfall or snowmaking in mid-November to make that happen. 

For those of you who really want to see a traditional Vermont cold, snowy winter, the heat wave we just had tell us nothing about the upcoming winter weather. 

I have the "for instances." The late autumns of 1975 and 1977 had spells of rather impressive warm weather, but the subsequent winters were pretty intense. On the other hand, a warm late October of 1979 led to a warm winter. Conversely, a severely wintry November, 2019 led to a rather unimpressive winter of 2019-20.

In other words, it's all still a crap shoot.  

As I always say, no good weather in Vermont goes unpunished. The other shoe will drop. 

Strangely High Humidity For Late October In Vermont

Somewhat dramatic clouds over St. Albans, Vermont
late Tuesday afternoon were one indication of the
oddly humid air over the state for this
late in the season. 

 If you felt rather sweaty and sticky yesterday, chances are you're not running a fever.

Tuesday and today in Vermont are surprisingly humid for this late in the season. 

A good way to judge the level of humidity is to check the dew point.  The dew point is far the temperature would need to go to completely saturate the air. 

If the dew point is at or above 60 degrees, it starts to feel kind of sticky for most people.  Dew points since yesterday in Vermont have been in the low 60s, though they did dip ever so slightly into the upper 50s at night. 

Dew points at this high a level are very common in the summer but quite rare this far into autumn. 

It's this humid because there's been a persistent flow of air from the south off the Atlantic Ocean. 

High dew points this time of year really prevent overnight lows from dropping.  Yes, it was warm yesterday afternoon, reaching 75 degrees, but that was still five degrees shy of a record. However, Tuesday's low temperature in Burlington was 59 degrees, which set a record for the warmest low temperature for the date. 

Montpelier also set a record warm minimum temperature for the date on Tuesday, only bottoming out at 57 degrees.The normal low temperature in Montpelier this week is around 33 degrees.

The low temperature this morning in Burlington was also 59 degrees. If it stays at 59 or higher until midnight tonight, we'll set another record for warmest low temperature. The normal low temperature in Burlington this time of year, by the way, is 39 degrees.

You might have even noticed the sky had a vaguely summertime appearance. Through the breaks in the overcast, you could see some of the clouds bubbling up into convective shower clouds, like you'd get in the warm season. 

With climate change, we'll increasingly see these out of season humid spells.  That makes me nervous. The more humid the air, the more moisture it can hold. Given the right conditions, that super wet air can unleash dangerous downpours.

In the summer, when it's supposed to be humid, there are no big storm systems around.  Humidity can contribute to torrential thunderstorms, but those are local events that tend not to last very long. At least most of the time. 

In the autumn, winter or spring, you have larger storm systems. These storms, if they tap into out of season, humid air, can cause longer lasting torrential rains and floods. Oddly humid air contributed to serious flooding in Vermont in April, 2011 and on October 31-November 1, 2019.

This time, fortunately, the atmosphere and weather patterns aren't setting up to provide a risk of flooding rains, at least not here. Still, some of the scattered showers around could be briefly heavy in a handful of spots ahead of a cold front coming in from the west. For most of us, though, rainfall totals today and tonight will be nothing to write home about. 

I noticed a slug of pretty heavy rain was moving northward up the Connecticut River Valley this morning. Also, flood watches have been issued for coastal New Hampshire and eastern Maine. 

That approaching cold front will usher in cooler and much, much drier air for tomorrow and on into the weekend. We'll go back to the regular late October programming of frosty nights and bright, chilly afternoons.

Yes, 2022 Is A Year Strewn With Tons Of Mega Weather And Climate Disasters

Devastation in Fort Myers Beach, Florida after Hurricane Ian.
The hurricane was the most expensive natural disaster to hit
the world so far this year. 

 If you feel like your news feed this year has been filled with reports of huge weather and climate disasters, you're spot on. 

A report earlier this month by insurance broker Aon indicates the world has endured at least 29 disasters that cost $1 billion or more, as Yale Climate Connections reports. 

Of course, the costs of the disasters are still being tallied. Some of them, like droughts, are still ongoing.  

The most expensive disaster so far this year was Hurricane Ian in Florida, with well over $20 billion in damage. Some estimates are that Ian's tally could end up closer to $100 billion. 

Drought damage, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, have so far cost $38.4 billon.  

We've seen an increase in disasters each costing $20 billion or more in recent years. As Yale Climate Connections states: "This is greatly concerning, as mega-disaster are likely to overwhelm local resources needed to respond and recover, threaten insurers with insolvency, and disrupt global supply chains."

The U.S. Treasury Department is launching an assessment of worsening extreme weather and the impact this is having on insurance rates.  

Insurance is threatening to become unaffordable, or already is unaffordable, for people due to industry losses in big disasters. 

Worse than the cost of disasters is of course the loss of human life. The 137 deaths associated with Hurricane Ian is of course tragic. 

But heat waves tend to kill many, many more people.  Extreme heat waves in Europe this year are estimated to have caused 16,000 excess deaths. 

Probably the most victimized nation with disasters this year is Pakistan.  An unprecedented spring and early summer heat wave there caused immense drought damage to crops.  It also rapidly melted glaciers, which ironically caused devastating flash floods in mountainous regions. Many of these floods were from "glacial outbursts."

Lakes would form behind large ice dams as glaciers rapidly melted in the heat. Then these ice dams would collapse, sending walls of water and debris into populated valleys below.

After that, Pakistan had an extreme monsoon season that flooded perhaps 60 percent of the nation. Flood water still lingers in some areas as it will take months for the water to completely drain away. 

In the United States, ,Hurricane Ian is by far the most expensive disaster this year. Drought comes in as the second most expensive U.S. disaster so far this year, with $4 billion in mostly crop damage and counting. 

Numerous severe weather and flood outbreaks in the spring and summer collectively caused at least $16 billion in damage in the U.S.

Of course, there's a couple months left to go in 2022, so these numbers could go up even more. There's still time for a late season hurricane, severe weather outbreaks sometimes hit the U.S. in the fall and early winter, and destructive windstorms sometimes sweep Europe in November and December. 

Burlington To Have Latest First Freeze On Record With Big Asterisks (Snow Is Late, Too)

Purple blooms and sunflowers continue to survive amid
the fallen leaves in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens.
We haven't had any really hard freezes yet this autumn. 

 Technically, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington will set a record on Thursday for the latest first autumn freeze on record.   

The current record for latest freeze, as measured at the Burlington International Airport, is October 26, 2018.  It did get down to 33 degrees at the airport on October 11, but that wasn't quite a freeze.

There are TONS of asterisks to this record, however. 

Measurements at the airport only go back to 1941, so this will be the latest first freeze since around the beginning of World War II. Weather measurements for Burlington prior to 1941 were taken closer to Lake Champlain. 

In general, the closer to Lake Champlain you are, the less likely you are to have early frosts. The record for latest first frost as measured prior to 1941 is November 1.  (I'm not sure of the year),

Burlington, at least the airport if not downtown, could well see a frost by November 1. Strong high pressure is forecast to settle in overhead around Friday and Saturday (October 28 and 29). 

The air associated with this high pressure is not likely to be really cold. It's not coming from the Arctic.  But by this far into autumn, anytime you get a clear, calm night, you should expect a frost. And chances are high we'll have just that kind of weather. 

Fall and spring freezes are incredibly local affairs. One neighborhood might stay just above 32 degrees while a freeze hits just two doors down. It's just a matter of whether the air was calm enough long enough on a clear early morning to allow temperatures to dip below 32 degrees.

For Vermont as a whole, most of us had a freeze somewhere either around October 3 or in the October 10-11 time frame. That's more or less average timing for a first freeze of the autumn. 

Even so, we haven't had a lot of cold nights, and the freezes we have had weren't especially harsh. I've noticed that even though most of the leaves are off the trees, garden and potted flowers continue to happily bloom in much of Vermont. This is the time of year I clear out my perennial gardens, but I've been reluctant to cut down parts of them. They're still pretty. 

The quirk of no freeze yet at the airport in South Burlington makes for this weird stat: A record cold wave hit the South last week.  So at least officially, southern cities like Jackson, Mississippi, Birmingham, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida had their first freeze before Burlington, Vermont. 

The first snows of the season in Vermont are late this autumn, too, but so far, that's not setting any records. 

I couldn't really find any data on the latest first trace of snow of the season in Burlington. But I do know the average date of a first snow flurry of autumn is October 15, so we're past that. I know we've seen many years in which the first couple of snowflakes of autumn held off until November. 

If You Love Our Current Inflation Woes, You'll Love The Record Low Mississippi River Levels

The Mississippi River is so low that people can walk to 
this island in the river south of St. Louis, which is 
extremely rare. Normally, it's only accessible via boat.

 The following news actually surprised me this past week:

Large stretches of the Mississippi River are at record low levels. 

I knew that drought has afflicted swaths of the Mississippi River watershed this year, but I didn't think the droughts were the worst on record. They probably weren't, but the location of the droughts, the widespread areas affected by the droughts and their persistence really pushed the mighty Mississippi to a point that for now isn't so mighty anymore. 

The Mississippi River usually reaches its low point about this time annually, but this year the low is really low.

Says the Washington Post in an October 12 article: 

"Repeatedly over the past week, water levels have become too low for barges to float, requiring the corps to halt maritime traffic on the river and dredge channels deep enough even for barges carrying lighter than normal loads Days after a queue of stalled river traffic grew to more than 1,700 barges during emergency dredging near Vicksburg, Miss., a separate 24-hour dredging closure began Tuesday near Memphis. More dredging, which routinely costs billions of dollars a year, could be needed if barges continue to run aground."

This dredging has to continue to allow barges to pass, but still, things are way more gummed up than they ought to be, due to the low water.

This disrupts supply chains. As we've heard so much on the news lately, screwed up supply chains are one reason inflation is so nasty right now.  The low water on the Mississippi can only make this situation worse.

The river carries 60 percent of our corn and soybean exports, so you can see how this can affect food prices. Especially since agricultural exports from Ukraine are severely limited due to Russia's invasion and war crimes in that nation.  

At Memphis, the water level hit minus 10.79 feet, breaking a low water record established in 1988, another big drought year. 

For complicated reasons, river levels can be at minus levels. One instance as to how this can happen is a long standing river gauge could have established a zero level water mark decades ago.  Currents might have deepened the channel at that point, so during drought, water is still there, but is running below the zero level of the gauge. 

This low water might last awhile, too.  Forecasters expect to river level at Memphis to remain near minus 11 feet until at least November 1.  If that river doesn't rise markedly in November, it'll be too late. The northern reaches of the river, say up by Minnesota and Iowa, will freeze, so barge traffic from the farms up that way will have to stop.

The winter could lock away moisture from the river until the spring thaw. In that case the Mississippi would stay low until then. Then, because everything will be behind, the supply chains for the 2023 harvest could also be disrupted. 

Much further downstream, in Plaquemines  Parish, Louisiana, residents were warned earlier this autumn that the drinking water drawn from the Mississippi River now has elevated levels of sodium and chloride, the Washington Post reported.   This can be dangerous for people on dialysis or low sodium diets. 

The problem is that the southward river flow has weakened so much due to the low water that salt water from the Gulf of Mexico is creeping northward, forming a wedge at the bottom of the river because salt water is heavier that fresh water. 

A little rain is in the forecast for parts of the Mississippi River basin over the next week, but it will be much less than needed to add substantial runoff into the river. 

Plus, you'd need a lot of widespread rain to have a noticeable effect on the Mississippi River. You have to consider the Mississippi has big tributaries like the Missouri, Ohio, Arkansas and Illinois rivers. 

Which basically means we need a lot of heavy rain from Montana to Pennsylvania and from northern Minnesota to Louisiana.

 For people who live near the Mississippi River, the low water is quite a novelty. There's a really cool island in the river called Tower Rock. It's basically an oval shaped cliff topped with trees. Normally, you can only get there by boat.

But the river is so low, people can just walk to it without even getting their feet wet, says CNN.

In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, a man walking along the river spotted what appeared to be an old shipwreck.  Archaeologists think it might be the Brookhill Ferry, which carried people and horse-drawn wagons from one side of the river to the other. Newspaper archives say the ship sank during a bad storm in 1915, the Associated Press reports. 

 The novelty of walking to an island is nice, as is finding centuries old shipwrecks. But for a practical and economics standpoint, we'd better hope the Mississippi River regains its might - and fast! 

Indian Summer Strikes, Not That Anyone's Complaining

A beautiful late afternoon autumn sky Friday over St. Albans,
Vermont. Yesterday marked the start of Indian Summer 
type weather in Vermont that could last a week. 

 Yesterday in Vermont was gorgeous and today will be gorgeous-er  as Indian Summer comes to the region. 

Starting today, each of the next seven days at least are likely to reach 60 degrees or more.  We might even have one or two days that flirt with or touch 70 degrees in this spell of weather. It's quite unusual (but not unheard of) to get that long a stretch of such continuous warm weather this late into the autumn.

This will be what I call a "dirty" Indian Summer in that it won't be wall to wall sunshine. During this upcoming spell of fine weather, there will also be the occasional cloudiness, and even a little rain here and there. 

Today will feature a lot of sunshine as temperatures top out into the mid 60s. Sunday will be almost as nice, but high clouds will filter in, and thicken and lower some in the afternoon. A relatively weak but wet coastal storm will be responsible for those clouds.

Showers and periods of rain should come into at least parts of Vermont Sunday night and part of Monday.  Forecasters aren't entirely sure how far north and west the rain will come, but there's a fairly decent chance of at least a few light showers in northwestern Vermont. It'll almost definitely rain in southeastern Vermont. 

The storm's heavy rain should stay in southern and eastern New England. 

The storm clears out Monday and we go back to the sunshine and warmth into mid week. The warmest stretch at this point looks like it might be Tuesday and Wednesday, when we have the best shot of seeing a late breaking 70 degree afternoon or two.

Another front comes into play probably later Wednesday or Thursday. We don't know how much rain this will bring, but early bets are not much.  It'll turn cooler by Friday, but with highs then forecast to be near 60 degrees, that's still a little above normal. 

This stretch of pleasant weather is part of a flip in the weather pattern.  As you read in this here blog thingy earlier this week, widespread record low temperatures hit the Midwest and South, causing killing frosts as far south as northern Florida. 

These same areas that had got the cold air are not being enveloped by nice, toasty air. Some areas that saw record low temperatures will see a smattering of record highs over the next few days. A for instance is Omaha, Nebraska, which reached 16 degrees Tuesday morning. By tomorrow, the forecast high temperature there is 88 degrees.

We see some uncertain signs that this warmth in Vermont might last awhile. Long range forecasts keep our area warm into the first week of November, though the mild weather might be interrupted by a cold shot or two thrown in. 

 

Time For That Stupid "What Will This Winter Be Like" Parlor Game

Winter driving in St. Albans, Vermont a couple winters
 ago. It's virtually impossible to accurately predict 
what the upcoming winter will be like, but that's not going
to stop people from trying! 

 Right about now, it's peak frenzy time to predict what the upcoming winter weather will be like. 

I'm frankly not a big fan of this parlor game. There's so many factors that can influence the weather a couple, few months from now that it's almost not worth predicting. 

Besides, pretty much every winter here in Vermont is highly variable. Sure, some are cold, some are warm, some are snowy, some are rainy, whatever. But it's totally subjective. You might remember that horrible cold wave in January. Somebody else might remember a big February thaw.

The bottom line is, I'll tell you how the winter of 2022-23 will turn out. The catch is, I'll tell you in March, 2023. By then, we'll be out of winter and I can give an accurate accounting of it. 

For the record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Thursday came out with their prediction of what winter will be like for the United States.  

Their thinking is that chances are better than equal that it will be warmer than average across the southern tier of the United States, and up along the East Coast, east of the Appalachians. Chances are, according to NOAA, that it will be chillier than average from the Pacific Northwest, through the far northern Rockies into the northern Plains. 

NOAA is also suggesting it will be drier than normal across the southern tier of the United States, and perhaps wetter than normal in the Pacific Northwest, far northern Rockies and around the Great Lakes.

Everywhere else, it's a tossup.

If you look at NOAA's map, most of Vermont has an equal chance of being warmer or colder than normal, with a slight edge toward warmer than average in the southeastern part of the state. Also, most of Vermont has equal chances of being wetter or drier than average, with a slight edge toward wetter in northwestern Vermont. 

NOAA is predicting a generally warmer
than normal winter in the South and a cooler
than average one in the northwest. White
areas in map are a tossup. 

This tells us nothing as to whether most of the precipitation we get will be rain or snow. 

NOAA based its prediction on the fact that this will probably be the third winter in a row in which the world is in an El Nina weather pattern.

This pattern features cooler than normal ocean water in the eastern Pacific Ocean off of South America. On average this pattern makes the southern third of the United States warmer and drier than normal. La Nina doesn't really tell us squat about what kind of winter we'll have in Vermont.

There's plenty of other factors that might weigh in. So it's anyone's guess. Just like it always is. 

Since it's a persistence forecast, another La Nina winter, you'd think that we could just look at the past two winters in Vermont and figure out what this season will bring. 

Nope. As always, last winter and the winter before were different from each other. Both were somewhat on the dry side in Vermont.  However, last January was quite a bit colder than normal while the January before was on the warm side. 

However the Decembers and Februaries of both seasons were vaguely similar, I suppose. This February was slightly wet, the February before, a little dry. 

So comparing winters doesn't help.

And forget about relying on the Farmers Almanac, wooly caterpillars, squirrel behavior or anything else. The almanac is an entertaining read, but its winter forecasts do little better than coin tosses. Squirrel behavior depends more upon food availability this time of year than anything else. The black and brown bands on the caterpillar are just a function of how it's been feeding, how old it is and its species. 

My official winter forecast is the same as it is every year: It will be warm unless it isn't, wet unless it isn't, and snowy unless it isn't. 

There's a 100 percent chance it will snow in Vermont this winter, and there will be lots of changes from cold spells to mild spells, stormy periods to calm periods. Just like every winter we Vermonters have experienced. 

Worst Air Quality In World Is In Pacific Northwest

Smoke from wildfires is causing a thick smog in the 
Pacific Northwest. Here, it's obscuring the Seattle skyline
this morning 

 When we think of the Pacific Northwest, places like Seattle and Portland, we think of pretty clean air. 

The rain cleanses the air, and breezes off the ocean flush pollution away. 

Not lately.  The two worst cities in the world for air pollution over the past day or two were Seattle and Portland.

It was even worse there than cities that have notoriously bad air, like Beijing, Lahore and New Delhi.

Forest fires and a temperature inversion are to blame. A fire east of Portland has been burning since September 10 and continues to belch smoke. Other, smaller fires are contributing. Many of these started in a record heat wave that struck the region last week and weekend. Seattle hasn't seen any rain since June 9, and endured its driest summer on record.

Wildfires can cause horrible air quality any time they burn. It can be worse in the autumn.  Smoke and pollution can get trapped under a temperature inversion, in which a layer of warm air aloft acts as a lid that prevents the smoke from dispersing. 

In the summer, the sun angle is steep and the heat from the sun is powerful.  The heat from the sun can create updrafts that break up the inversion and let some of the pollution to escape. 

A lower sun angle in autumn and winter means the sun might not be powerful enough to break the inversion. So the particulates and smoke and other gunk keeps piling up. The air gets downright dangerous. 

The Puget Sound Clean Air Agency went as far yesterday to urge everyone to stay indoors if possible because the air was so bad. 

In the past, autumn inversions and air pollution have proven deadly. Among the most famous cases was the Denora, Pennsylvania smog on October 27-30, 1948.  A temperature inversion produced a persistent fog, and the steel mills in the area added choking clouds of smoke to the mix.  The smog was trapped under an inversion.

It became so dangerous that 20 people died.  Hundreds more were hospitalized and people with cardiac and respiratory issues were urged to evacuate. Rain arrived on October 31 and dispersed the smog.  Some experts say if the smog lasted a day or more longer, perhaps 1,000 people could have died.

The Denora smog disaster helped get the ball rolling to improvements that led to the Air Quality Act, which greatly reduced U.S. air pollution.

Much like in Denora, a series of rain storms is expected to hit the Pacific Northwest, starting Friday.  The rain and west winds off the Pacific will flush the bad air out, and contribute toward extinguishing the forest fires plaguing the region. 

 

Latest Drought Monitor: Recent Rains Continue To Benefit Vermont

Only about 25 percent of Vermont (yellow areas) are regarded
as "abnormally dry" as those areas haven't entire made up
for summertime rainfall deficits yet. Autumn rains
have greatly improved the drought situation in Vermont, though.

 That soggy rainstorm we had about a week ago put another big dent in any lingering dryness from a summer drought in Vermont.  

A miniscule 0.01 percent of Vermont is still in drought, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released today.   It's affecting an estimated and incredibly underwhelming 67 people in the extreme southeast tip of Vermont. 

About 25 percent of Vermont is still considered abnormally dry, as recent rainfall in parts of eastern and southeastern Vermont hasn't completely made up for previous rainfall deficits. 

Still,Vermont is in the best shape moisture-wise since the week of June 14, when no parts of Vermont were abnormally dry. 

The heavy autumn rains we've seen in Vermont are just what the doctor ordered. Ground water has been replenished, which greatly reduces the chances that people's wells will go dry in the winter. It's especially hard to deal with a dry well in the winter, so that's good news.

Also, the rains have left plenty of water for Vermont ski areas to make snow this winter. That's important, of course. Heavy snowstorms have become less reliable, and winter thaws are more likely with climate change, so ski resorts need all the backup they can get. 

The weather pattern has turned dry again in recent days, with little rainfall since last Friday and not all that much in the forecast for the next week. (Some rain seems likely Sunday into Monday, so it won't be rain-free).

Long range forecasts into the opening days of November suggest near average amounts of precipitation in Vermont. 

A dry spell here or there this time of year isn't too serious, as long as we get some more storms. Trees have gone dormant for the winter, so they won't be sucking up any ground moisture to speak of. 

While Vermont''s drought situation has greatly improved, the same can't be said for the rest of the United States as a whole. 

Just over 82 percent of the Lower 48 is at least abnormally dry.  And 59 percent of the continental U.S. is in drought, up four percentage points from last week.Aside from a couple weeks in March that were slightly worse than that, the last time this much of the nation was in drought was back in 2013.

 The most severe current drought areas are in central California and the central and southern Plains. 

Should Vermont Prepare For An Influx Of Climate Refugees?

Aerial view of Interstate 89, Exit 12, Taft Corners, Williston,
Vermont as it looked in 1975. The area is now essentially a 
mini-city. Williston and the rest of Vermont might see
more rapid population growth soon due to 
"climate refugees" fleeing vulnerable parts of the U.S 

We're seeing one mega-disaster weather after another, almost all of which were worsened by climate change.  

Will this trigger a new great migration of people fleeing vulnerable areas?  

And if that happens, will Vermont be part of the receiving end of this big migration?

Experts are warning that residents of western and southern states, faced with extreme drought, wildfires, water shortages, big storms, hurricanes and sea level rise, will soon start to swarm toward "safer" places in the United States.

One projection by Matthew Hauer, an assistant professor of sociology at Florida State University suggests 13.1 million Americans will relocate because of sea level rise along by 2100, based on projections that seas along the U.S. coast will rise by nearly six feet by then.  

Where will all these people go?  Apparently, mostly north and east.  To the Midwest and the interior Northeast. Vermont is looking like one of the more desirable landing spots for these migrants. There's lots of reasons why. 

Vermont is one place where we don't need to worry about sea level rise. At least not directly.  The Green Mountain State is regarded a "safe" place from climate change.  Sure, we're affected by global warming in the form of worse flooding, periodic droughts, stronger, weirder storms, hotter summers and iffier winters. 

But we tend to avoid the worst of it all. The summer heat waves aren't all that bad, compared to other areas of the nation. We don't often experience hurricanes.  Big wildfires are exceedingly rare. Droughts tend not to be as punishing as in the South and West. 

Vermont is such a Goldilocks state for climate change avoidance that a detailed study by ProPublic and New York Times in 2021 listed the "safest "counties in the United States in terms of threats from climate change. Six of the top ten safest counties were in Vermont. 

I still don't know whether that's true, but it does make sound Vermont enticing, doesn't it? Certainly, most of the 13.1 million sea level/climate refugees won't come to Vermont. But some of them might.  A small percentage of those refugees would certainly swell our population far beyond the current 625,000 or so. 

It's easier than ever to pull up roots and move. Most people need a job, and we don't have millions of employment opportunities here in Vermont. However, the pandemic demonstrated that it's often surprisingly easy to work from home, or from anywhere as long as you have a decent internet connection.    Want to live in Vermont but your job is in California? No problem! You can do both! 

On one hand, this is good.  We have an aging population in the Green Mountain State, and we need relatively young, educated people here to boost our work force and our economy. We even have an incentive program that pays younger working families to move to Vermont to start new careers and lives. 

However, plenty of roadblocks get in the way of a potential booming population.  There's virtually no affordable housing around here. Or infrastructure, really. Plus, our population has been relatively stable for a century now. Vermont's population is less than double of that of 1900. Other states have grown exponentially.

We're accustomed to slow growth.  What if our population begins to grow rapidly?

We cherish our rural atmosphere. Our little farms, undeveloped forests, our lack of crowds.  We like our small and quirky state.  Will we adjust to many more arrivals if forced to? 

There's already resistance. Vermonters understandably cling to the small scale patterns of towns, populations, roads, you name it. We're not enamored by high rise buildings, super freeways, or endless sprawls of apartment blocks, "honky tonks, Dairy Queens and 7-11's," to quote an old Talking Heads song.  

Sprawl has long been a dirty word in Vermont. If we do receive an influx of climate change refugees, we will have to build more densely in existing town centers, and build upward. Meaning something akin to high rises. 

I can't imagine (at least not yet!) a Vermont with 30, 40, or 50 story towers.  Currently, the tallest building in Vermont is Decker Towers in Burlington, at a mere 11 floors, or 124 feet tall. Vermont has the distinction of having the shortest tallest building in the United States, if that makes any sense. 

By the looks of things, Vermont is going to have a hard time building anything remotely as tall as Decker Towers. Here's just one example, courtesy of VTDigger:

Busy Taft Corners in Williston is going through another rezoning effort.

Part of the change involves building heights. Currently, the tallest building you can construct there is 52 feet - about four stories.  Town officials wanted to raise the Taft Corners building height limit to 110 feet. That's about eight stories, so not gigantic. 

The town selectboard got so much blowback from that idea that they lowered the proposed height limit to 87 feet, or about six stories. That's still way too high for many people in Williston.  VTDigger quoted one resident:  "I just don't want to see a tall building in the middle of Williston, period. You know, it's a small town. It is a town. It's not a city."

Like it or not, the Taft Corners area of Williston has become a defacto small city.  This isn't the only building height fight we've had recently. Burlington saw huge opposition back in 2015 to a proposal to build two 14-story towers in the city's downtown.

It's either taller buildings or much more intense sprawl in Vermont if people flee to the relative safety of the Green Mountain State. One way or another, we'll have to choose. 

Vermont is already losing about 14,500 acres per year to residential development. (All of last summer, I heard the hammers and equipment for new houses going up in a formerly forested area less than a mile from my St. Albans house).

Building heights and sprawl are just two issues among many.  We'd have to think about things large and small. School size and budgets, taxes, affordable housing, infrastructure, broadband, land use, job creation,  cultural shifts. It goes on and on. 

Societal issues arise, too. Things that are really hard to talk about, but need to be confronted. Vermont is among the whitest states in the nation. We have a reputation for tolerance, but we have our share of racist, homophobes, Christian nationalists and other creepy people living here. 

A fair number of climate refugees that eventually arrive here will be Black, or of Hispanic, Asian or Arabic descent. How well will Vermont do as its racial diversity changes? I can only hope the resurgence of racism and xenophobia in the United States doesn't intensify further nationally and here in Vermont.   

We have slightly less but still real conflict points too.  Many Vermonters still dismissively refer to newcomers as "flatlanders" who supposedly don't fit in or bring their "problematic" ways of life to the Green Mountain State. 

It'll probably be best to welcome climate refugees if we get them, since it's starting to look almost inevitable. Other locations are largely supporting what is already starting to be an influx. 

In April, Tulane University associate professor of real estate Jesse Keenan provided CNBC a list of American cities that would be great "climate havens." In addition to Burlington, Vermont, Keenan listed cities like Buffalo and Rochester, New York, Asheville, North Carolina, Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Duluth, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and Detroit, Michigan. 

Several of these are rust belt cities that fell on hard times during the later half of the 20th century. This might, for these communities, a bit of a resurgence and recovery. 

Buffalo, New York is already promoting itself as a climate refuge city. This city of screaming, blinding lake effect blizzards is actually regarded as among the safest from weather and climate disasters. 

Wildfires and hurricanes tend not to hit Buffalo. Heat waves are actually the leading cause of weather-related fatalities. Buffalo does get heat waves, but less so than many areas of the nation. Plus, Lake Erie tends to temper the worst of the heat waves. Bonus: Lake Erie has plenty of fresh water, so droughts are not that big a problem.

Also, there's room in Buffalo for an influx of people. As Fast Company notes, Buffalo's population was around a half million in the 1950s and is now about half that. 

Buffalo is also boosting affordable housing and bolstering its infrastructure for a climate refugee wave that has already started.    Roughly 3,000 Puerto Ricans moved to the Buffalo metro area to start new lives after Hurricane Maria ravaged the island. 

Fast Company does raise a risk that climate refugees can create in Buffalo, and anywhere else, including Vermont: Climate gentrification. Says the Fast Company article:

"'Think about the first people who are going to start migrating because of climate,' says Ryan McPherson, chief sustainability officer at the University of Buffalo. 'Those are not going to be poor people, right? Those are going to be people with resources. And so, we have to make sure that as we think about planning and making Buffalo ready for climate migration that we do that in a way that is very equitable and fair."

Wealth inequity is another important factor that we'll need to consider.  We already have an extreme dearth of affordable housing. Plus, people with wealth tend to get their way, at least more than people of more modest means. The more well-heeled could potentially crowd out people of more modest means.

Sure, we'll need to welcome climate refugees when the time comes, but we 'll need the backbone and morals to take Buffalo's pledge: Make it fair to everybody, not just the folks with lots of cash lying around.  We can't just let the wealthy drop in and snap up all the housing and land. There's got to be some fairness involved. 

Vermont is already starting to see the first few climate refugees. For instance, at least three families fled Paradise, California after the town was destroyed by a 2018 wildfire and ended up in the Green Mountain State. 

For instance the Boston Globe profiled the Holden family, who lost everything to the Paradise fire, and subsequently moved to "safer" Proctor, Vermont to start a new life.  They did a lot of research, including watching YouTube videos of the horrible 2011 tropical storm Irene flooding.  They were relieved that the Proctor/Rutland area, while damaged by the flood, was mostly intact after the disaster, unlike Paradise, California.  

And the house they purchased did not suffer any flood damage from Irene. 

The current small influx of people is manageable, and judging from the Globe article, the Holdens seem to be settling in just fine in Proctor. 

However climate change and its effects on human behavior often hit in sudden and surprising ways. Good, smart people in Vermont  are beginning to at least think about how to deal with this potential influx of people.

As WCAX-TV reported last year, we need to do a lot more to prepare for this possible influx: 

"UVM Professor of Community Development and Applied Economics Chris Koliba says from a social and economic standpoint, Vermont probably isn't ready to take in more people."

Koliba's remarks to WCAX in December, 2021 are not doubt just as true now. 

Note that we had a bit of an influx of people during the early months of the Covid pandemic, and that made the state's housing shortage worse, and strained schools and infrastructure to at least some extent.

The potential influx of climate refugees to Vermont does not at all have to be a bad thing. As Seven Days reported in January, these newcomers can inject the state's economy with new jobs and commerce, rescue flagging local schools and expand Vermont's tax base. 

As Seven Days notes, as long as we plan soberly, and welcome people of all income types, especially the squeezed middle class, and keep our rural character, we can reap the economic benefits. This could easily be a win for Vermont. Which sounds harsh, since climate change is such a loss.  " 

As for me, I'm absolutely for welcoming people to Vermont.  But we have to do it right and well. There won't be any do-overs. 

 

Will Simplified Winter Storm Messaging Help?

Motorists struggle with a slippery hill in St. Albans,
Vermont during a heavy winter storm in 2017. The
National Weather Service plans to streamline
how winter storm warnings are issued this season
to make them less confusing to the public. 

 Messaging is complicated when a big weather hazard looms. Or even a small weather hazard, for that matter. 

I mentioned this issue not long ago in this here blog thingy concerning Hurricane Ian. Evacuations ahead of the storm didn't seem adequate. I don't think even emergency managers, never mind the general public, fully understood the nuances of the warnings. 

On a (usually) much less dangerous scale, National Weather Service offices in the Northeast, including Vermont, recently tried simplifying autumn and spring frost advisories and warnings to make them less confusing. 

Now many of these same National Weather Service offices, including our very own headquartered in South Burlington, Vermont, are taking a crack at making winter storm warnings less confusing. 

Yes, yes, I know, many of us (me included!) are not quite ready to deal with snowstorms. But winter weather will come soon enough. 

In the past, the National Weather Service in South Burlington would issue a winter storm warning if we expected six inches of new snow within 12 hours or nine inches of snow within 24 hours. 

One reason this can be confusing is winter storms can be quick or long-lasting. These warnings would be a little less perplexing if we just de-emphasized the time frame approach to storms. So, this winter, you'll hear a winter storm warning if meteorologists expect seven or more inches of snow from the storm. Doesn't matter if that seven inches comes down in five minutes or over two days. 

The decision by meteorologists to issue a winter storm warning will depend on the expected impacts of the oncoming snow. 

Other areas covered by different National Weather  Service offices will have slightly different criteria, based essentially on what people are used to in winter weather.

Northern New Hampshire and northern Maine will get a winter storm warning if the expected system will drop eight inches or more of snow. Most of central and southern New England get a similar warning if six inches or more is on the way. 

For the record, there will be no winter storm warnings in Vermont this week. Or next, for that matter. 

 

Midwest, South Autumn Cold Snap Is Really One For The Record Books

The scene in Gwinn, Michigan yesterday
after 13 inches of early snow. Photo by
Mindy Olvera via MLive. 

 An intense cold spell hitting the Midwest and South is not your ordinary autumn frostiness. This is turning out to be among the most intense October cold waves on record. 

Yesterday, snow fell as far south as the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Up to 18 inches of snow buried some spots in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. In northern Indiana, up to four inches of snow combined with wind gusts of over 40 mph brought down tree limbs that are still in leaf. 

Widespread freezes damaged crops remaining autumn crops across the South. Freeze warnings were in effect all the way down to the Gulf Coast in Mississippi and Alabama. 

Yesterday, Omaha, Nebraska reached 16 degrees, easily the coldest for so early in the season.  Same story this morning in Springfield, Missouri, where the 21 degree reading was also the coldest for so early in autumn. 

Birmingham, Alabama reached 32 degrees this morning, so they received their earliest freeze on record. Birmingham had a freeze earlier this autumn than in normally chilly places like Billings, Montana and Burlington, Vermont. 

Even some single digit temperatures showed up.  It was 7 degrees in Spencer, Iowa yesterday and 9 degrees in Huron, South Dakota. 

Daytimes have been cold, too.  In Atlanta, Georgia, the high temperature Tuesday was 54 degrees, which is the normal high temperature there in January. And, again, it was colder than Burlington, Vermont's Tuesday high of 58 degrees).   

The shot of cold air was directed from north of the Arctic Circle right down into the middle of the nation.  Since the main push of cold went by to the west of Vermont, we are escaping the worst of it. Temperatures will be a little cooler than average in the Green Mountain State for the next couple of days, but it's nothing out of the ordinary for October.

Overall, the weather pattern is changing so that by the end of the week, much warmer air will envelop the big freeze zone. That warmer air will come into Vermont starting this weekend. 

For you wags out there saying "whatever happened to global warming?"  do note that as usual, most of the world is experiencing above normal temperatures.  An intense old wave in one corner of the world does not "cancel" climate change. 

Cool Satellite Shot: A "Dry Slot" Moving Into the Region

Visible satellite image from late this morning shows a
very well defined "dry slot" a narrow band of clear air
on the east side of a storm over the Great Lakes. Dry slots
are very common in mature storm systems. 

 The visible satellite image of the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada was fun and interesting late this morning, at least for a weather geek. 

It shows what is known as a "dry slot" extending up through the eastern United States. You can see it in the satellite image on this post. Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see. 

Dry slots are very common with mature storm systems.  A relatively narrow band of dry, sinking air gets entrained into the southern and eastern parts of a storm.

Sometimes, it stays cloudy in a dry slot, but precipitation largely shuts down. Other times, the sky gets clear in a relatively narrow band.  That's what's happening here.

A parent storm is over the Great Lakes, bringing in cold, cloudy air to that region, with rain and snow showers. The storm's cold front has pushed on into eastern New England. A classic dry slot has formed, and as of late morning, extended from the Carolinas, through central Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and central New York. 

On either side of this narrow dry slot, it's cloudy and cool. Under the dry slot, skies are spectacularly clear. It's still not particularly warm, but it is pleasant under it. 

The dry slot was edging closer to Vermont late this morning, so it gives us the prospect of sun breaking out this afternoon. Which will be a terrific alternative to the gloomy conditions we had this morning.  The dry slot's clear skies should linger tonight.

That means there's a good risk of frost in the Champlain Valley, where the growing season is technically still going. The National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for this area tonight. 

 Temperatures in much of Vermont will be near or below freezing tonight.  The growing season is considered over in these areas, so there's no frost or freeze alerts outside the Champlain Valley. 

This is the second classic dry slot we experienced in a week. On Friday, after an early morning of heavy rain, skies abruptly became clear and pleasantly mild in much of Vermont last Friday afternoon.