Pacific Northwest Braces For Atmospheric Rivers, Flooding Over Next Few Days

Atmospheric rivers could bring up to 10 inches
of rain in the next few days parts of the Pacific
Northwest, raising flooding fears. This map is
forecast rain for the next 7 days. 

The Pacific Northwest has a wet, dark reputation this time of year. The people are nice enough, the weather is not. Sufferers of seasonal affective disorder will do well to avoid places like Seattle and Portland this time of year. 

Usually, it's a grinding, boring day after day realm of drizzle, light rain, fog and chill. Sometimes, though, things can really get out of hand. 

The next few days look what one of those out of hand periods.

A strong atmospheric river is due to hit Washington and Oregon beginning tomorrow and lasting through much of the week. This long lasting deluge is sure to cause at least some flooding and landslides as inches and inches of rain bombard the western halves of Washington and Oregon. 

Some areas of Washington and Oregon could get four to as much as 10 or more inches of rain by Wednesday night.   The Willamette Valley, which runs roughly from Portland to Eugene, Oregon, is expecting three to five inches of rain. 

The Seattle metro area could get two to five inches of rain, which means clogged drains and street flooding, landslides on steep slopes and shallow-rooted trees toppling over as soil turns to loose mud. 

But the real problem looks like it will be in the Cascade Mountains east of Seattle and Portland, and the Olympic Mountains of northwest Washington. 

Five to ten inches of rain could pour down on these mountains, which would quickly race down steep slopes into populated valleys below.  

The atmospheric river - really a series of atmospheric rivers - are tapping into tropical moisture which of course involves warm air. That means snow levels will be high.  You'll probably have to get above 6,000 above sea level to hit snow. That leaves only the higher peaks and volcanoes in the wintry weather. . 

The higher the snow level, the more water will race down the slopes, which is why everybody is so worried about flooding. Flood watches are up for all of the western third of Washington and much of western Oregon. 

Officials in both states said people in flood prone areas should have spent Saturday and as much of the day Sunday as they could getting ready for high water. 

It's always hard to predict exactly how high rivers will get in these situations. But the flood-prone Snoqualmie River is forecast to reach near major flood stage Tuesday, then have a secondary major flood stage peak on Thursday. 

Some of the flooding could extend across the border to Vancouver Island and other areas of southwest British Columbia, Canada, but the worst effects still look like they'll hit south of the border. 

The Cascade Mountains will wring out some of the moisture, so eastern Washington won't get much rain. But the storms will then hit the mountains of Idaho and western Montana, where more rain and snow will fall.

The snow levels in Idaho will be oddly high because of the warm air. Elevations below 8,200 feet or so will probably see mostly rain.  

This type of weather pattern often brings incredibly strong winds to parts of Montana and Wyoming, so those two states will be looking out for that this week.  

Late this week, the super rainy weather in the Pacific Northwest will slow down or stop for about a week, give or take. Then the atmospheric rivers might resume again. 

 

Weird Out Of Season Atmospheric River Hits Pacific Northwest, Does More Good Than Harm

Satellite view of atmospheric river hitting the 
Pacific Northwest Friday. Those are 
exceptionally rare in the summer. 

The Pacific Northwest has a cloudy, wet reputation, but in the summer, the water shuts off over there, and this area is usually pretty dry in August. 

Not at the moment, though. 

An atmospheric river has hit Washington and Oregon, dumping near record amounts of rain for this time of year.  

Seattle averages about an inch of rain each August. That much fell just in the past two days.  It was the most rain at once in August in at least a decade.  

Atmospheric rivers are fairly common along the U.S. West Coast in the winter but are super rare in the summer. 

These weather systems are narrow bands of atmospheric moisture that can travel hundreds or even thousands of miles across the Pacific Ocean and then come ashore, unleashing torrential rains.  Atmospheric 

The atmospheric river is doing far more good than harm since almost all of Washington and much of Oregon is in a drought.  

This atmospheric river won't entirely solve the problem, but at least it will help. Maybe. 

The drought made it difficult to forecast the impacts of the atmospheric river. The National Weather Service in Seattle had this to say in a hydrologic outlook ahead of the storm,

"Very dry antecedent conditions has left the area soils dry and hard. This amount of rainfall in one storm will not have much tie to soak into the very dry soil, which will result in heavy surface runoff. Impacts are uncertain due to how much moisture will be able to be absorbed by the soil."

Most rivers won't flood, since they're starting out so low. But outdoor enthusiast might be taken by surprise by unusually high water for this time of year. For instance, people who might be used to setting up camp in or near a dry river bed during the summer might fall victim to fast flowing water.

The atmospheric river also hit parts of British Columbia, Canada. It was actually beneficial there, too. Wildfires were spreading in western British Columbia so this is a big help, since it was a real soaker. Vancouver picked up 1.69 inches of rain Friday, its fifth wettest August day on record. 

 The rainy weather was starting to clear up in the Pacific Northwest today. Clouds, cool weather and light showers will continue the rest of the weekend. But the Seattle, Portland and other cities in the region will revert to their usual dry, sunny August weather during the upcoming week. 

Inland parts of eastern Oregon are still under a flood watch today as the remnants of the atmospheric rive remove inland to trigger shower and storms. Some downpours over wildfire burn scars could cause some debris flows. 

Bomb Cyclone Finally Wanes In Pacific Northwest; New "Bomb" in UK Raising Havoc This Weekend

Big waves from Storm Bert crash into Devon, UK
The bomb cyclone is causing havoc throughout
the UK this weekend. 

 Storminess is finally waning along the West Coast as a one-two punch from a bomb cyclone and atmospheric river finally wane. 

The bomb cyclone - an explosively developing, intense storm - unleashed ferocious winds on the Pacific Northwest, notably Washington State. 

Two people were killed by falling trees, and power was cut to hundreds of thousand of homes and businesses.

The storm's atmospheric river - an intense band of moisture in the air, set its sights on northern California in the past three days. 

Venado, California received 17.4 inches of rain and Austin Creek wasn't far behind with 15.6 inches. 

Santa Rosa, California had its wettest three-day period on record, with around 12;5 inches of rain. Downtown San Francisco suffered some flash flooding as three inches of rain deluged the city Friday. 

Mudslides and flooding were widespread, inundating streets in San Francisco among other cities and closing parts of the Pacific Coast Highway in Mendocino County. 

This could have been worse had the atmospheric river not hit during the beginning of the wet season. Dry soils were able to absorb part of the deluge, but certainly not all of it. 

More rain is forecast from the central California coast all the way to Washington and beyond the next several days, but it will be much lighter than it was during the atmospheric river. No major new flooding is anticipated.

BRITISH BOMB

A bomb cyclone named Bert is strafing Great Britain with heavy snow, rain, storm surges and strong winds.  British meteorologists are, in their usual understatement, calling it the storm a "multi-hazard event."

One person has already died when a tree fell on his car. Five people in Wales had to be rescued when a mudslide engulfed their home. 

High elevations in northern England and in Scotland were expecting 8 to 16 inches of snow.  Temperatures were expected to warm up and snow was likely to change to rain in some areas, raising the risk of flooding from snowmelt. 

Up to six inches of rain was expected this weekend in parts of Wales and southwestern England. That's about the amount of rain that should fall there in the entire month of November, according to the BBC 

Significant flooding is also reportedly developing in Ireland. Travel was discouraged and much of Scotland and some train service was suspended.

In Europe, they name their big winter storms, like the United States names hurricanes. That's why this one is named Bert.

Rough weather in the UK from Bert is forecast to continue the rest of the weekend.  

Nasty Flood In Pacific Northwest. And Perhaps Some Flooding In Vermont Coming Up?

National Weather Service expected rainfall map for
the next seven days shows several inches additional rain
in the flooded Pacific Northwest, with more than an
inch here in Vermont. An expected warm storm
Sunday would melt mountain snow, raising the
risk of some flooding in Vermont by then. 

 An atmospheric river - a ribbon of deep Pacific moisture - slammed into the Pacific Northwest over the past couple of days, causing a lot of flooding that led to at least one death, and a lot of damage. 

The death was of a man swept away in a creek near Portland, Oregon. In Washington State, more than eight inches of rain soaked some areas.  The Stillaguamish River north of Seattle got to a record high crest, CNN reported.

The Skagit and Snoqualmie rivers were at major flood stage.

The atmospheric river was accompanied by record warmth, meaning rain fell at high elevations above 9,000 feet. 

That added melting snow to the mix. At low elevations, Portland, Oregon reached 65 degrees, tying the record high for the entire month of December.

Seattle had a record high of 59 degrees and also a record for the wettest December 5 on record with 2.01 inches.

The rain is temporarily tapering off in the Pacific Northwest today, but another atmospheric river with more heavy rain and possible flooding is due over the weekend.

VERMONT STORM/FLOOD?

The Green Mountain State Sunday night and Monday could see a smaller, more minor but still concerning version of what happened in the Pacific Northwest.

It's drier and cold in Vermont this week as daytime highs stay in the 20s today through Thursday. There's' very little snow on the ground in the valleys, but he mountains have already piled up one to three feet of snow, well ahead of where we should be this time of year.

Near the summit of Mount Mansfield, 39 inches of snow was on the ground compared to a normal of about a foot and a half this time of year.

I mention this because a warm, wet storm seems likely Sunday and Monday, which could bring flooding and some strong winds. 

Some of the energy from the Pacific Northwest storminess will dive down into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. That will spin up a storm that will scoop up quite a bit of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and bring it northward.

Since this storm is still likely to go by to our west, we'll get a shot of quite warm air on Sunday. At this point highs are forecast to reach the 50s by then.  A burst of pretty heavy rain seems like it wants to come through later Sunday and Sunday night. 

The combination of rain and mountain snow melt could easily be enough to put some Vermont rivers over flood stage. So far, this doesn't look nearly as bad as the flooding we had back in July. But still, we'll want to pay attention to this as water might be high enough to close some roads and create problems in low lying areas.

As always, the forecast will be fine-tuned between now and Sunday, so just keep the idea in your head that there might be some trouble with high water by the time Sunday night and Monday roll around. 

The storm might also produce areas of strong winds, so we'll keep an eye on that, too.

  

Southeast Asia Latest To Have Heat Records Pulverized; Western Canada/NW U.S. Next?

Forecast weather map for this coming Monday depicts
an intense heat wave in southwestern Canada. 

 It seems like every week now we get news of some place on the globe having unprecedented heat. We in Vermont briefly had our turn in April, and I'm sure we will again in the coming weeks or months or years or all of the above.  

For the record, though, no particularly hot weather is in the New England forecast for at least the next two weeks and probably more. 

The latest newsmaker for heat is Southeast Asia, which has been experiencing an incredibly dangerous heat wave.

As the Washington Post reports, Laos established a new all-time high temperature for the nation at 110.3 degrees. That comes just a month after the Laos previous all-time high of 108.9 degrees was established. 

It's a humid heat, too, which makes it all the more dangerous. In one town, the low temperature on one day this week was 89.2 degrees. Laos is a poor nation, and many people don't have adequate access to air conditioning. When it gets this hot, sweating can't cool you down like it can with more modestly hot temperatures.

Experts think they'll see a lot of excess mortality from this in Southeast Asia. 

Vietnam also saw its highest-ever temperature this week, with a reading of 111.4 degrees on Saturday. That record lasted a whole day. It was 111.6 degrees Sunday, notes the Washington Post, quoting extreme temperatures tracker Maximiliano Herrera. 

The extreme heat also spread into Thailand, Cambodia and parts of China. Cambodia set an all time record high of 106.9.

Southeast Asia tends to have its worst heat waves in May, before the onset of the monsoon season. But this heat wave is beyond the pale for Ma Nature.  

Climate change is taking what would be normal, albeit oppressive heat waves, and make them literally unbearable.

WESTERN NORTH AMERICA NEXT?

Back in June, 2021, an unprecedented (there's that word again!) heat dome set up over British Columbia, Canada.  It smashed heat records across that province and the Pacific Northwest of the United States. In Lytton, British Columbia, the temperature reached 121 degrees, the hottest reading ever recorded anywhere in Canada.

Experts said that the intense heat ridge was such a rare event that it could only have happened with climate change. Otherwise it was at least a one in 1,000 year event. 

Fast forward just under two years from deadly heat dome in Canada and another one of similar strength seems ready to set up over western Canada, as meteorologist Jeff Berardelli notes in a series of Tweets. 

It's mid-May, not the end of June, so the temperatures won't go into the 110s this time around. Instead we're talking temperatures well into the 90s.  

This is still very bad, of course. The heat will send melt water from snow rushing down the slopes of the Canadian Rockies, worsening already bad flooding in British Columbia. In low elevations there, wildfires are already breaking out. 

The heat will spread across Alberta, which has already experienced record heat and its worst spring fire season in memory.  The Alberta fires are so intense that the smoke has been overhead here in Vermont off and on in recent days. 

The new heat wave will surely worsen the Canadian wildfires, so expect more smoke overhead here in New England for much of the rest of this month at least. 

 

Parts Of Canada, NW U.S. Baked In Record Heat This Past Week; Alberta Burst Into Flames

One of many wildfires burning in Alberta, Canada brought on
by record high temperatures and dry weather. Photo
from Alberta Fire.

 As I described the other day, a persistent north to northwesterly flow of air will blow across Vermont and the rest of New England this weekend and during most of the week. 

Despite the direction of the wind flow, it won't be cold. Temperatures will be pretty close to normal. Even a little warmer than normal on some days. 

A large part of the reason why is that it's been incredibly warm in large sections of central and northern Canada. There's just no cold air to head this way. 

Strong high pressure in central Canada has led to record high temperatures in vast areas.  One of the most impressive record highs was a reading of 88 degrees in Hay River, Northwest Territories. That town is about as far north as Anchorage, Alaska or Helsinki, Finland, notes the Washington Post. 

Temperatures also got well into the 80s across huge stretches of Alberta and Manitoba, and parts of British Columbia. Edmonton, Alberta reached a record high of 88 degrees on Wednesday. Calgary had a record high of 78 degrees. 

Some of the Canadian heat dipped down into parts of the northwestern U.S.  Missoula, Montana reached 90 degrees on Monday, the hottest it's been this early in the season since 1910, says the Washington Post. Spokane, Washington had two days in a row of record highs of 84 and 83 degrees.

HEAT CAUSES DANGER

The way-too-early hot weather prompted dozens of wildfires to break out in Alberta, Canada, forcing 13,000 people from their homes. One fire in Fox Lake, Alberta has already destroyed 20 homes and the town's police station. 

Hot, windy weather is expected to continue, so the fires are likely to worsen. 

The Calgary Herald reports that the fires will worsen through the month of May, and possibly into the summer.  Lightning strikes are forecast this weekend, which would set off new fires.  Though humans have been causing most of the existing fires. 

British Columbia endured a chilly winter and early spring, which allowed snow to really pile up in the mountains. Now, with the heat, the snow is rapidly melting, causing serious flooding. Heavy rains were forecast to move into southern British Columbia this weekend, which would make things worse. 

Hot Canada this week was caused by a weather pattern known as an Omega Block. The jet stream curled south of a substantial area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere just off the coast of California. 

The jet stream then curled far north around the edges of a "heat dome" that formed in Canada - basically a huge area of high pressure featuring oddly warm weather. The jet stream then zoomed southward around another big low near East Coast.  That low and jet stream configuration is why we just had a cool, wet week in Vermont and why parts of New Hampshire, Maine and Quebec had heavy rain and flooding. 

Climate change probably influenced the heat wave, too, driving temperatures higher than the otherwise would have reached. 

Omega blocks don't break down easily, which is why the weather was so persistent. 

The block has managed to shift around a bit.  The low pressure in eastern North America has shifted well to the northeast, so we have that drier northwest flow over us.  The low pressure on the West Coast has also weakened some. But the persistent dome of hot high pressure remains over central Canada.  So in the upcoming days, more warmth and wildfires will envelop many. of our neighbors to the north

Yeah, It's Winter, But Climatologists Still Obsessed With '21 NW Heat Wave. Alaska Storm, Too

Map depicting the upper level flow in late June, 2021]
depicts the heat dome over the Pacific Northwest and
southwestern Canada that led to extreme, record
shattering heat. Scientists are still studying the
heat wave and its relation to climate change. 

 Since there's such a terrible cold wave smacking much of the nation, let's talk about heat waves.

Or at least one specific heat wave.  

Climatologists are still obsessed with the historic, extreme heat wave that afflicted the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada in 2021.

Record-breaking heat waves have become much more common in this era of climate change. 

But this particular heat wave really stands out.  During the relatively rare hot spells in which monthly and all time records, the old marks are almost always broken by only a degree or two.

In that heat wave, temperatures soared to as high as 121 degrees in Lytton, British Columbia, Canada, easily establishing a new all time record high for the entire vast nation. The day after that record was set, most of the town of Lytton burned down in a wildfire.

Before this heat wave the all-time hottest day on record in Portland, Oregon was 107.  In this heat wave, it reached 116 degrees, so that's an incredible nine degrees above the previous record.

Also, before 2021, Seattle had only experienced 100 degree temperatures on three occasions. Then, in this heat wave, it was above 100 on three consecutive days, including the all-time record high of 107.

The heat wave killed hundreds of people in Oregon, Washington and British Columbia.

Given how utterly jaw-dropping this heat wave was, you can see why climatologists have been studying and picking apart this heat wave ever since. 

According to Axios:

"In the most comprehensive analysis to date of what made the heat wave so extreme, scientists ruled out the possibility that this was a 'black swan' event, which is unpredictable and unlikely to recur.

Instead, the new study in Nature Climate Change shows that amplifying feedbacks between factors such as unusually dry soils and a highly contorted jet stream added to the effects of a long-term climate change.

The wavy jet stream pattern, itself tied to climate change, helped give rise to a record-strong heat dome that parked itself over the British Columbia and the Northwest U.S. in early summer."

If we were back in the 1950s, a heat wave like this would have been considered absolutely impossible in the Pacific Northwest. 

As Axios reports, because of climate change and its feedback loops, the chances of another heat wave like this is now considered a one in every 200 year event. And if the climate warms by a total of 2 degrees Celsius, then the heat wave would be considered a one in every ten year event. 

Other scientists say the heat wave was in large part bad luck. Weather systems and trends got together in precisely the right way to unleash a horrible heat wave. But climate change boosted the temperatures even further than they otherwise would have gotten.

The 2021 Northwest heat wave wasn't a one-off. Other weird, unexpected things keep cropping up that seem to have been giving a boost by climate change. 

Up in Alaska, meanwhile, former Typhoon Merbok slammed into the state's west coast in September, bringing record high storm surges and immense coastal flooding.

The storm hit before the seas along Alaska's west coast began to freeze.  The ice would have offered some protection. The ground hadn't yet frozen, either, so it could erode more easily.

To make matters worse, as Yale Climate Connections reports, the ocean waters in the Pacific were warmer than average, very likely due to climate change. This allowed the typhoon to exist closer to Alaska than it otherwise would have And it allowed the storm to maintain much of its strength even after it transitioned to a powerful non-tropical storm. 

This is similar situation that Atlantic Canada faced with Hurricane Fiona this year. Unusually warm water off the eastern Canadian coast allowed Fiona to keep more of its strength than it otherwise would have by the time it made landfall.  

The examples in this post as to how climate change can affect weather events in surprising ways ought to worry all of us. What fresh hell that's beyond our imagination will climate change on us here in Vermont?  Maybe nothing, maybe something mildly weird, maybe something catastrophic.

It's enough to make one nervous, though. 

Worst Air Quality In World Is In Pacific Northwest

Smoke from wildfires is causing a thick smog in the 
Pacific Northwest. Here, it's obscuring the Seattle skyline
this morning 

 When we think of the Pacific Northwest, places like Seattle and Portland, we think of pretty clean air. 

The rain cleanses the air, and breezes off the ocean flush pollution away. 

Not lately.  The two worst cities in the world for air pollution over the past day or two were Seattle and Portland.

It was even worse there than cities that have notoriously bad air, like Beijing, Lahore and New Delhi.

Forest fires and a temperature inversion are to blame. A fire east of Portland has been burning since September 10 and continues to belch smoke. Other, smaller fires are contributing. Many of these started in a record heat wave that struck the region last week and weekend. Seattle hasn't seen any rain since June 9, and endured its driest summer on record.

Wildfires can cause horrible air quality any time they burn. It can be worse in the autumn.  Smoke and pollution can get trapped under a temperature inversion, in which a layer of warm air aloft acts as a lid that prevents the smoke from dispersing. 

In the summer, the sun angle is steep and the heat from the sun is powerful.  The heat from the sun can create updrafts that break up the inversion and let some of the pollution to escape. 

A lower sun angle in autumn and winter means the sun might not be powerful enough to break the inversion. So the particulates and smoke and other gunk keeps piling up. The air gets downright dangerous. 

The Puget Sound Clean Air Agency went as far yesterday to urge everyone to stay indoors if possible because the air was so bad. 

In the past, autumn inversions and air pollution have proven deadly. Among the most famous cases was the Denora, Pennsylvania smog on October 27-30, 1948.  A temperature inversion produced a persistent fog, and the steel mills in the area added choking clouds of smoke to the mix.  The smog was trapped under an inversion.

It became so dangerous that 20 people died.  Hundreds more were hospitalized and people with cardiac and respiratory issues were urged to evacuate. Rain arrived on October 31 and dispersed the smog.  Some experts say if the smog lasted a day or more longer, perhaps 1,000 people could have died.

The Denora smog disaster helped get the ball rolling to improvements that led to the Air Quality Act, which greatly reduced U.S. air pollution.

Much like in Denora, a series of rain storms is expected to hit the Pacific Northwest, starting Friday.  The rain and west winds off the Pacific will flush the bad air out, and contribute toward extinguishing the forest fires plaguing the region. 

 

Not Everybody Gets A Warm Spring; PAC NW Having Winter In May (Almost)

While we in Vermont have had a generally warm spring
with a couple snowy exceptions, the Pacific Northwest has
had a wet, cold, miserable spring. Photo above from KOIN
shows a Portland neighborhood enduring its first
April snowstorm on record back on the 11th of that month

Despite the chill we felt this morning around Vermont, we have had a relatively warm spring.  We've even had a few premature bouts of summer weather so far this month. 

There's actually a chance we might score into the top 10 warmest Mays, depending on how the weather shakes out in the final week of the month. 

Not everybody gets to enjoy such warm weather. The Pacific Northwest, in particular, has had a miserable spring. 

In Seattle, April was a substantial 4.2 degrees cooler than normal and so far May in Seattle is running at 5.5 degrees below normal. They've dealt with extra clouds and rain, too. So far this month they've had 3.18 inches, more than double the amount they should have gotten by this point in the month. 

Portland, Oregon, had the first April snowfall on record on the 11th and 12th of the month.  Since many trees had leafed out by then, there was plenty of damage. The month ended up being 3.1 degrees colder than average.

Portland also had its wettest April on record, with 5.73 inches of precipitation (Normal is 2.89 inches).

Things aren't much better in May for Portland. The month so far is running 3.2 degrees chillier than average and rainfall is running an inch ahead of normal. 

Further east, places like Denver, Boulder and Colorado Springs are having a spring with temperatures averaging fairly close to normal. But even there. a late season snowstorm dumped several inches of slush on those cities.  Trees were leafed out there, too, so many branches collapsed onto wires, causing 100,000 people to lose power.

Prospects seem bleak for a warmup in the Pacific Northwest. The long range forecast for the next two weeks calls for cooler and wetter than average conditions in those areas.

By contrast,  the admittedly not completely reliable long range forecasts has Vermont with mostly warmer than average weather with near normal precipitation for the next two weeks. 

The cold weather in the Pacific Northwest shows that even with climate change, you can get spells of chilly, dreary weather. Cold snaps don't become impossible with climate change, they just become somewhat less likely.

Active Pattern Floods, Gusts NW, NE Corners Of Nation, Plus Vermont Snow Update

Time to bring back the National Weather Service snow
prediction map! It's showing light accumulations tonight
away from the Champlain and lower Connecticut
River Valleys.

 Now that we are finally in our typical stormy November weather pattern across the United States, we're feeling the consequences of it. Some of us, anyway. 

Friday, and to an extent this weekend, the northeast and northwest corners of the nation are taking the brunt of it. 

Parts of Washington and Oregon were beset by flooding, mudslides and debris flows as heavy rains continued to roar in from the Pacific Ocean.  About 50 people had to be rescued via helicopter from a flooding RV park in Oregon. 

The flooding was made worse in Washington because snow had fallen in higher elevations and the latest storm was warm. That melted a lot of the snow and intensified runoff. The risk of flooding will continue there into early next week.k 

In New England, it isn't as bad as in Washington State. But still, there was a lot of street flooding and local flash floods Friday in parts of Massachusetts, Connecticut and New Hampshire.  There was briefly even a tornado warning on Nantucket Friday.

Power outages hit the entire region Friday, including here in Vermont.  All those fallen power lines have since been fixed.

A new storm today will create another risk of severe thunderstorms and maybe even a brief tornado in southern New England, a burst of rain in the entire region, and in some parts of northern New England, the first real accumulation of snow this season.

VERMONT IMPACTS

The forecasts continue to call for a little quick hitting, powerhouse of a storm later today and this evening.  The relatively dramatic weather will only last a few hours, but some of us will definitely find it noticeable. 

Temperatures will probably make it to a few degrees either side of 50 degrees by midday before the storm's rains get here. 

Once the storm winds up, it will throw a fairly good slug of precipitation at us during the afternoon, and thats' when temperatures will crash. While this is happening, there could well be a few out of season lighting strikes in southeastern Vermont. That's a sign the system has a lot of energy going for it.

For what it's worth, this weather model is a little more
aggressive with snow tonight, with most of Vermont outside
the Champlain and lower Connecticut valleys getting
about two inches of snow. It's showing spot totals of
four to seven inches in a few pockets in high 
elevations of the southern Green Mountains. 

When a storm intensifies rapidly, it often makes its own pool of chillier air, as the heavy precipitation cools the air. This will happen today, aided by colder air coming into the storm from the northwest. 

Snow levels will rapidly fall from summit level to 1,000 feet or so this evening.  I still think wet flakes will make it all the way to valley floors. 

This will largely be over by midnight.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington isn't going with any accumulation in the deeper valleys

However, if you're up around 1,000 feet or so in elevation, you'll start to see at least an inch or two.  The mountain summits will probably get four or five inches of snow out of this

Since the changeover to snow up there will be fairly rapid, and the precipitation will probably be briefly heavy, snow and ice could easily accumulate on roads if you start heading out of the valleys.  I'm looking at you, Interstate 89 around Brookfield and Interstate 91 near Sheffield. Roads that go over the Green Mountain ridgeline, like parts of Routes 9, 4, 15, 17 and 302, could see some issues this evening.

Just keep that in mind if you have travel plans. You're not used to driving in snow yet. And the wet snow we're expecting tends to me more slippery than the powdery stuff we get in mid-winter.

Another consideration is when a storm, even if small in size is this dynamic, the cold pool it forms could be more extensive than forecast. It's possible abrupt, light accumulations of snow and slippery travel could make it down into places like the Champlain Valley.  That's not the most likely scenario, ut definitely could happen! 

After that, we get kind of blah, typical November day Sunday (quite a few clouds, highs in the 40s).  Then we get into more rain and snow showers Monday and Tuesday.

We are sliding toward winter, folks!

As Another Heat Wave Bears Down On West, The Big One In June Only Possible Through Climate Change

The unprecedented heat wave in the Pacific Northwest
and Canada in late June could not have happened without
climate change, scientists concluded. And now, another
 heat wave looms in the western part of the continent.

Despite a brief squirt of oppressively humid and very warm air on Tuesday, Vermont continues to be off to a cool July so far, a respite from June, which was one of the region's hottest on record. 

Not so out west, where conditions have remained pretty hot in most places even though the worst of the unprecedented late June heat wave has waned.  

Now, it appears the heat is building back up in the western United States and southwestern Canada. Though this next heat wave won't be as intense at the last one, there will still probably be quite a few daily record highs broken.

A punishing, ongoing drought continues in the western United States and in British Columbia, Canada.  Wildfires are already raging out on control.  Humans and dry lightning strikes are setting new fires pretty much daily. 

The long-lasting heat will further dry things out and encourage more fires. There's really no end in sight. 

While the western heat will be widespread, it'll be centered a bit further south than last time. Instead of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia being the most torrid spots, Nevada, California and Arizona look like the worst spots. 

It's pretty much always hot in the summer in these areas, but this heat will be intense, even by their standards. 

Death Valley could make it to 130 degrees, which is pretty close the hottest on record for the entire Earth. 

Want to head up to northern Arizona's mountains to escape the desert heat? Good luck with that. Temperatures at elevations as high as 4,000 feet above sea level could still flirt with 110 degrees, note the Washington Post. 

In California's Central Valley, temperatures are forecast to be near 110 this weekend. Sacramento, California is usually in the low 90s this time of year, but will be in the 105-110 degree range over the upcoming weekend. 

Further north, some of the places that had the worst of the heat in late June will still broil. Spokane, Washington could reach 100 degrees over the weekend.

Spokane's normal high temperature this time of year is in the low 80s, similar to that in Vermont. But Tuesday was their 14th consecutive day at 90 or better, and each of the next seven days at least are forecast to top that 90 degree mark. 

Meanwhile, that crushing late June heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia could not have possibly happened without a boost from climate change, scientists have concluded.

According to the BBC:

"An international team of 27 climate researchers who are part of the World Weather Attribution netword managed to analyze the data in just eight days. 

Unsurprisingly, given the quick turnaround, the research has not yet been peer-reviewed However, the scientists use well-established methods accepted by top journals.

They used 21 climate models to estimate how much climate change influenced the heat experienced in the area around the cities of Seattle, Portland and Vancouver. 

They compared the climate as it is today, with the world as it would be without human-induced warming."

The result was this, the BBC said, quoting co-author Dr. Friederike Otto, from the University of Oxford:

"Without the additional greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, in the statistics that we have available with our models, and also the statistical models based on observations, such an event just does not occur."

At least it didn't, until climate change came along. 

The disconcerting thing about the whole thing is this: Scientists aren't sure whether the extreme heat wave was an extraordinarily rare event that would have happened anyway, but was made worse by climate change - OR - did we cross some sort of threshold where heat waves like this one become more common.

By "this one" I mean one that broke all time records not by one or two degrees,  but by as many as ten degrees Fahrenheit. 

Makes you worry about the next heat wave that will inevitably hit your home town, doesn't it?

 

The Climate Disaster In British Columbia/Pacific Northwest Becomes Tragically Apparent

The village of Lytton, British Columbia set all time heat records
for all of Canada three days in a row about a week ago.
The next day, after it reached 121 degrees, the village
was destroyed in a wildfire. Another climate change
disaster. Photo by Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press.

Last week, during the unprecedented, crushing heat wave that hit the United States Pacific Northwest and western Canada, the little village of Lytton, British Columbia set a new record high for any date, any where in Canada.  

For three days in a row. Each day was hotter than the prior one. 

Ultimately, the temperature in Lytton peaked at an unimaginable 121 degrees. The next day, a wildfire swept into Lytton, razing the village, and killing two people

As CBS Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli said on CBS This Morning, "That is a direct connection between climate change and catastrophe."

This heat wave, and the subsequent wave of deaths and fires has certainly gotten a share of media attention.  But it's already fading from the headlines. In reality, even though temperatures have cooled slightly, it's all a true, ongoing climate disaster.  

I say this was, and is a climate disaster because there's widespread agreement that a heat wave of this magnitude could not have happened without a boost from climate change. The results are fatal, and the death toll is rising.  

The British Columbia Coroners Service has reported 719 deaths in the week of the heat wave, triple the number you'd normally expect in the province, according to CBC.

On average, British Columbia sees perhaps three heat related deaths per year at most. 

We all regard Canada as a chilly nation, home to ice hockey and bitter Arctic cold fronts they regularly sends across the border into the United States during the winter. 

Canada, though, like much of the rest of the world, will have to get used to danger and deaths from heat waves. Last week wasn't the first time in recent years Canada suffered a heat disaster. In July, 2018, an intense Quebec heat wave killed no fewer than 90 Canadians.

There are heat deaths in the United States each year, but as summers turn even hotter, those fatalities will increase. Especially in parts of the nation that are not used to extreme heat. 

That same July, 2018 heat wave in Quebec also proved fatal to four Vermonters as temperatures here soared in the upper 90s, and the temperature one night in Burlington failed to drop below 80 degrees for the first time on record.   

In Oregon, last week's heat wave killed 94 people, and that toll is expected to rise as more reports come apparent. 

The summer is still young, so more fatal heat waves are a real possibility. If not here or in Canada, but perhaps in some other part of the world. 

People don't just die from the direct effects of heat. 

There were 710,000 lightning strikes in British Columbia and western Alberta between 3 p.m. Wednesday and 6 a.m. Thursday.  On average, you'd expect about 8,300 such strikes in the same period.  

Many of those lightning strikes would never have happened if not for the heat wave. 

The heat parched the landscape, making forest fires easy to start. During the heat wave, some British Columbian forest fires grew so intense they created pyrocumulus clouds. Those are thunderstorms created from the violent updrafts created by the heat of wildfires.

These thunderstorms unleashed barrages of lightning but almost no rain. Some of the lightning strikes sparked many new fires, which in turn can create more pyrocumulus clouds, more lightning and more fires. The cycle feeds upon itself. 

Fires in British Columbia and the western United States will probably burn all summer, and many more large ones are sure to start. 

We're seeing a repeat of the last few seasons, which had huge, deadly wildfires out west, part of the new normal. 

We feel a few effects of all those fires here in the Green Mountain State, even when temperatures stay cool.  We love the deep blue skies of summer, but the smoke high up in the sky turns the sky a bland, hazy blue gray. 

We'll probably see some of that high altitude smoke and haze overhead this week. The smoke is too high up to cause much of a health effect locally, but the haze is disheartening. 

Combine that with the gypsy moth caterpillar infestation in Vermont this year, which have wrecked the normal landscape of deep green forests, and left a patchwork of brown, denuded trees. That adds to the disappointment in this year's Vermont summer environment. The beauty of the Green Mountain State is diminished. 

Climate change might have had a hand in the caterpillar mess. Recent springs have been hot and dry in Vermont possibly because climate change intensifies spring heat waves.  A fungus that thrives in our normally damp springs keeps the caterpillars in check. Hot, dry weather means less fungus, and more caterpillars.

I got carried away here complaining about aesthetic, but not life-threatening effects of climate change here in Vermont and veered off the main topic.

There is a lull in the heat waves going on at the moment. It was actually chilly in New England this past weekend. We'll have ups and downs in temperature from week to week, and from location to location. It's actually been a cool summer so far, relatively speaking, in and around Texas, for instance. 

However, as climate change marches on, the heat waves will keep striking harder and harder. They'll also become more likely in weird places. Plus, there's other weather and climate worries to deal with. 

For instance, the extreme drought in the West sure hasn't gone away, and that will keep intensifying in many areas for the rest of the summer. That's another crisis made worse with climate change.

Not every weather event is "caused" by or made worse by climate change. Plus, there have always been extreme weather that has caused deaths and tragedy. 

These days, though, many of the headline events are influenced by and made more catastrophic with us spewing greenhouse gases into the air. So expect your news to feature more and more fatal extreme weather events for the foreseeable future. 

New England Heat Wave To End With Some Severe Storms

Cooling centers like this one opened in the Pacific Northwest
in the past few days as unprecedented heat took hold.
There has unfortunately been a dramatic uptick in deaths
in the region due to the heat

 We'll have to watch the skies for severe storms today, especially from Route 2 south in Vermont, and especially from Route 4 south and on through southern New England and the New York metro area today. 

More on that in a minute and what it means for us  in a minute (Spoiler: It will help end the heat wave)

But the heat both out west and to a slightly lesser extent here in the Northeast continues to impress. 

Following is a hodgepodge of facts and figures that proves that point. 

CANADIAN HEAT AND TRAGEDY

The most impressive stat so far is from Lytton, British Columbia, Canada. As previously reported, that town on Sunday broke the record high for all of Canada with 116 degrees. That record lasted a whole day, as Lytton reached 118 on Monday. And THAT record was brief, too, as Lytton hit an astounding 121 degrees on Tuesday.

I saw one statistic that showed the previous world record high for that far north in latitude was 112 degrees.

There were many worries the extreme southwestern Canadian heat would lead to a large number of deaths in the part of the world where 100 degree heat - especially heat like that lasting for days, would lead to a number of deaths. 

Those fears have unfortunately been realized.  Authorities in the area around Vancouver, British Columbia are investigating more than 130 sudden deaths, most of which are suspected of having been caused by the extreme heat. 

Here's a tragic quote via the BBC:

"'I've been a police officer for 15 year and I've never experienced the volume of sudden deaths that have come in such a short period of time," police sergeant Steve Addison said. Three or four a day is the normal number."

The Canadian heat wave death toll is expected to rises, especially since the extremely hot weather is continuing today and beyond in southwestern parts of the country.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Deaths are above normal in the northwestern United States due to the heat as well. A farmworker in Oregon has died in the hot weather, and other fatalities are being investigated as possibly heat related as well.  Hospital emergency rooms have seen a surge in patients with heat related illnesses.  One person was treated for third degree burns on his feet from walking barefoot on asphalt. 

The heat has waned near the coast. Seattle set by far it's all time record hottest temperature on Monday with 108 degrees but it was "only" 85 degrees there Tuesday. Portland, Oregon went from an all-time high of 116 degrees Monday to 93 degrees Tuesday.

The heat continued inland, though. Spokane, Washington suffered through an all time record high of 109 degrees Tuesday, and it could get that hot again today. 

This heat wave is forecast to linger in the interior Northwest through the weekend at least, and spread into the Northern Plains. 

NORTHEAST HEAT

The heat wave in the Northeast has been on the impressive side as well. 

Hartford, Connecticut reached 99 degrees Tuesday for a new record high.  Boston also reached 99 degrees, tying the record for the date. 

It appears Portland, Maine will have its hottest June on record. Boston and other New England cities will come close.  

In Burlington, Vermont, we're on track to have our third hottest June on record, or perhaps second warmest, depending upon how today goes.

Tuesday was already the eighth day this year in Burlington with a high of 90 degrees or more.  The record for a single season is  26 such days.  We still have July and August to get through. 

The heat is already to begin to wane in the far north, and should disappear in most places in the Northeast by tomorrow, but there's a price to pay for that

SEVERE WEATHER 

Things seem very well set up today for a burst of severe thunderstorms in central and southern New England.

In Vermont, the most likely area for severe weather is from about Route 2 south, with the threat increasing the further south you go.

Far northern Vermont is closest to the cold front that will end the heat wave.  It's already cloudy up that way, which will sharply reduce instability, which is one key ingredient you need for severe thunderstorms. 

The threat of severe storms is highest in central
New England today, but almost the entire
region could see a strong to severe storm.

Also, as is common with severe weather potential in our region, there's a pre-frontal trough, sort of a mini weather front coming in first.  Severe storms usually for along and ahead of such a trough.  The pre-frontal trough will have already gone through northwestern Vermont by late this morning, minimizing but  not eliminating the threat of severe weather in that area.

This also reduces the chances of that area getting needed, decent rains. 

One technical thing meteorologists look for when forecasting thunderstorms is Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE. it refers to the maximum speed of potential updrafts in thunderstorms.  Strong sunshine can increase instability, and thereby increase CAPE values. 

The higher the CAPE value, the higher the probability of severe storms.  If the CAPE value gets really high, you can get particularly intense storms. 

There are other factors you need to create severe weather, but if CAPE values start to go above 1,000, that's one sign of potential strong thunderstorms.  If you get up around 3,000, you really want to watch out, if other atmospheric conditions are there to contribute to storms. 

Projected CAPE values today ranged from near 900 in far northwestern Vermont, to as high as 3,000 in southern Vermont.  Parts of southern New England close in on 4,000. I'm sure we'll see at least a few reports of strong damaging winds the further south you go today.

The Storm Prediction Center has the best chances of severe thunderstorms in central New England. By far the biggest threat is strong, straight-line winds.  Like in the last severe weather event earlier this month, there is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado in southern and eastern Vermont New Hampshire and Maine.

We still need rain. Southern Vermont and southern New England have been doing a little better lately with rainfall. Northern Vermont continues to keep missing out.  

And of course that trend will continue.  There's still a good chance of some rain in the north with showers and thunderstorms, but I don't think it will amount to a whole lot, except for the lucky few that get bulleyed by a couple local downpours.

The cold front will get hung up near or just south of the New England coast, and it looks like a small storm will form along it. This will spread rain back northward Friday, but again, northern Vermont looks to get lighter amounts from this. 

It will temporarily get much cooler under the clouds and rain, with some places in eastern Vermont staying in the 60s or highs on Friday.  It'll warm up again by Sunday and Monday.  

Northwest Extreme Heat: Could It Happen In Vermont?

Despite constant watering, the river birch we planted in
our yard is still suffering a bit as it is enduring one of 
the hottest Junes on record.  While we have not
experienced the kind of extreme heat that has happened
elsewhere in the world lately, there's no reason why
new all time records can't be set if weather patterns
 align themselves just right. 

 As we've been talking about all week, the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada have been broiling in an unprecedented heat wave.  All-time records have been shattering left and right. 

We here in Vermont are experiencing a nasty heat wave, if I can be Captain Obvious here. 

Today, Burlington will almost certainly go over 90 degrees, making three consecutive days in a row with such temperatures. That makes it an official heat wave. 

This has been a fairly intense heat wave by New England standards.  Burlington, Vermont has continuously been above 75 degrees since 3 p.m. Saturday, so there's been no relief at night.  

Though northern Vermont will turn slightly cooler tomorrow and Thursday, a few towns in central and southern New England could make it to 100 degrees today and tomorrow. 

Our heat wave has of course been overshadowed by the the brutal, extreme heat in the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada, which somehow managed to get even worse on Monday.

The entire nation of Canada saw its all time record high broken, with a reading of 118 degrees in Lytton, British Columbia. The old record of 116 was set just the day before in the same town. 

Seattle reached 108 degrees Monday. The old all time record high for the city before this heat wave was 103 degrees. 

Portland, Oregon, reached a blast furnace like 116 degrees, and the old record high for the city was just 108 degrees. 

Through Monday, at least 25 U.S. cities and 34 in Canada reached new all-time record highs, says the Weather Channel. 

A normally chilly town named Quillayute, Washington reached 110 degrees, breaking their all time record by a whopping 11 degrees. You don't break that kind of record by such a wide margin, but there you go. 

Normal high temperatures in Quillayute this time of year is in the mid-60s, so it getting that hot there is pretty much the equivalent of our Burlington, Vermont getting up to 125 degrees. 

This all begs the question: Can something so unprecedented happen here in Vermont?

Well, it won't get to 125 degrees in Burlington, not even close. But with climate change taking hold, I think current all time record highs in Vermont are in jeopardy one of these summers.  In my opinion, probably within the next couple of decades. 

For perspective, the hottest temperature on record for the entire state of Vermont was 105 degrees in Vernon, July 4, 1911. Yeah, that was a long time ago.   Burlington's all time record high is 101 degrees from August, 1944.  It's only been 100 degrees in Burlington four times, in 1911, 1944 and twice in 1995.

Meanwhile, unprecedented heat waves have been hitting different parts of the globe with increasing, alarming frequency. Sure, records are made to be broken, so it's inevitable that some place in the world will occasionally have an all time record high temperature. The pace of such record heat waves has picked up markedly, though. 

In recent decades, though, massive heat waves have been obliterating records. Such heat waves have struck not just the Pacific Northwest, but Russia (in 2010) and western and central Europe (2003).  Many other areas of the world have had all-time record highs.

In July, 2019 new national heat records were set in France, Belgium and the Netherlands.  

Last year a reading of 100 degrees was noted for the first time north of the Arctic Circle, in a Russian town. 

Just this year, places as diverse as Helsinki, Finland, and Mexicali, Mexico broke their all time record highs for June (89 and 125 degrees, respectively.) Billings, Montana and Salt Lake City, Utah broke their all time records in another heat wave earlier this month, with readings of 108 and 107 degrees. 

Here in Vermont, we haven't hit all time record highs in recent years, but there have been a flurry of new monthly records, and records for earliest and latest in the season heat. 

Eight of the 12 monthly high temperatures in Burlington have been set since or tied since 1995. The city's records go back to the 1880s.

There have been days that have broken records by huge margins. In February, 2017, the temperature in Burlington reached 72 degrees. Prior to that year, February temperatures had never exceeded 62 degrees. On Christmas Eve, 2019, it was 68 in Burlington and 70 in Rutland. Last year on Christmas Day in was 65 degrees.

So we now seem at least somewhat prone to breaking records by large margins. 

If the weather patterns align themselves perfectly in the middle of summer, that combined with global warming, could really shatter all time record highs in Vermont. 

Which is potentially very dangerous, because we're not used to extreme heat. 

The chances of these records shattering this year or on any given year are very low, but it's something that could happen. 

 

As Expected Heat Records Crashing In NW: New England (Smaller) Heat Wave

Today's national weather map shows an immense area
of extreme heat warnings and heat advisories in the West.
Some heat advisories are also showing up in the Northeast
(orange areas) 

Before we get into what's going on around here in Vermont, I really have to marvel at the heat in the Pacific Northwest.  

That region of the nation hasn't even reached the peak of their heat wave yet - that will come today and tomorrow - but record high temperatures were already crashing down, especially in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, Canada.

Portland, Oregon rocketed up to 108 degrees Saturday, reaching an all-time high for any date in that city. The scary thing is that new all time record will likely be broken today, and broken by a wide margin. 

The Weather Channel forecasts a high of 115 degrees in Portland today.  

For perspective,  it will be cooler in 99.8 percent of the world today than in Portland. Only parts of the Sahara Desert, Persian Gulf and a few spots in the Desert Southwest will be hotter. Portland is normally a pretty mild city.  Normal high temperatures there this time of year are in the upper 70s.

Seattle hit 102 degrees Saturday, a new record for the month of June.  The record for the date was broken by a whopping 12 degrees. Where this record was set, normal high temperatures this time of year are only in the low to mid 70s.

A weather balloon launched Saturday didn't hit the freezing point until it reached 18,700 feet, something unheard of for this part of the world. That's 4,300 feet above the summit of Mount Rainier, so I'm sure the snowfields and glaciers are melting rapidly up there. 

In Lytton, British Columbia, the temperature reached 110 degrees Saturday, the hottest reading for anywhere in Canada for the month of June.

The incredible heat wave in the Pacific Northwest will peak today and tomorrow before only slowly waning. 

Heat waves are always dangerous, as hot weather is the world's leading meteorologically cause of deaths.  The Pacific Northwest is not used to such hot weather, and many buildings and homes have no air conditioning.  It could get deadly. 

That's especially true since early morning low temperatures aren't offering much relief, making the heat wear down on people. The low temperature this morning in Seattle was 73 degrees, the warmest overnight low on record for any date. 

As NBC News/Associated Press reports, people have done their best to get ready for the heat wave.

"Stores sold out of portable air conditioners and fans, hospitals canceled outdoor vaccination clinics, baseball teams canceled or moved up weekend games and utilities braced for possible power outages."

As climate change continues on, heat waves are getting hotter, longer lasting and more frequent. This one is an outlier that might not be repeated in the Pacific Northwest anytime soon. But like most other places, strong heat waves have become more likely in that region and will continue to get more likely going forward. 

 VERMONT/NEW ENGLAND UPDATE

We in the Green Mountain State are among the many areas becoming more prone to hot spells.  We've seen that already record spring, summer and autumn heat this year, and every year since 2017. 

A few record highs could be threatened in New England today and tomorrow as we get our own hot spell. At least it's not as extreme as the one in the Pacific Northwest.  But it's bad enough.

Today has already gotten off to a muggy, icky start.  The low temperature in Burlington this morning was 75 degrees, compared to a normal low of 60.  That gives a good head start to the heat today.  We'll probably fall perhaps just two or three degrees short of the record high of 96 degrees for today's date. 

I'd say today's record high of 91 degrees in Montpelier is threatened. Other record will surely fall, especially in southern and eastern New England, which have the right conditions for the hottest temperatures. 

After a very stuffy night, Monday looks pretty brutal, too.  It's possible northern Vermont will be just a couple degrees cooler than today, but still hot. Clouds could keep temperatures in check a bit, and a slightly cooler upper atmosphere might hold temperatures back a degree or two.

However, if anything, southern and eastern Vermont could be even a bit hotter on Monday than today, and more record highs are threatened. Tuesday's temperatures in Vermont will drop a few more degree, though the intense heat will continue in central and southern New England. 

We sure do need the rain, and there are chances coming up.  Saturday, my place in St. Albans was probably the wettest spot in Vermont, which is the good news. The bad news is it only amounted to 0.3 inches, which isn't much. 

Most places in Vermont got either nothing or less than a tenth of an inch. 

Only isolated thunderstorms are possible today. There might be slightly higher coverage of storms Monday, but most of us will stay dry. 

A weather front stretching from Oklahoma to central Quebec has been for the past few days a conveyor belt for flooding rains. 

That boundary should slowly slip south into our area over the course of the week. There won't be flooding rains, and we don't even know yet whether there will be fairly decent rains. But at least the chances of some rain increase Tuesday through Thursday.

That weather front will also gradually decrease our temperatures through the rest of the week. It will stay kind of humid, though.  

Extreme Heat, Drought Continue To Rage In Climate Change Fueled Summer

One computer model depicting the temperature 
departure from normal in the Northern Hemisphere.
Dark reds and black shading is much above normal,
light purple is much cooler than normal. Huge
areas will be hot and the only really chilly areas
will be the central U.S. and a small slice of Ontario.

This is another week in which the weather has really gone off the rails in many parts of the world. 

We've been talking about that heat wave that is beginning now in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and British Columbia, Canada.

 If anything, the forecasts have gotten worse, with all time record highs very likely to be challenged in these regions. 

Drought in the western United States, already extreme in many areas, is rapidly worsening and turning into a crisis. 

Meanwhile, a large chunk of Europe is also dealing with its own record-breaking heat wave.   I'll save it for a soon to be released subsequent post on all the other weather problems out there this week, including tornadoes in weird places and flooding. 

But the heat is the main story here. 

In most of the northern hemisphere, summer heat peaks in July, weeks after the summer solstice. The kind of heat waves going on now, if the happen at all, are unprecedented for June, this early in the year. 

While temperatures relative to normal today vary across the Northern Hemisphere, like they always do, there is almost no cool air. The only places by Sunday that will be noticeably cooler than normal will be parts of the central United States and a slice of Ontario, Canada.

Here in Vermont,  we won't be nearly as extreme as these examples in the coming days.  We won't set any June or all-time records. But we are still going to be dealing with another oppressive hot spell and possibly a worsening drought in the coming days. More on that in a moment. 

I say this every time I bring up these big heat waves, but it bears repeated.  Although there have always been heat waves, the longer and more intense ones we've been seeing in recent years are being influenced by climate change.  

The overall warming world helps turn run of the mill hot spells into torturous heat waves. The droughts are probably influenced by climate change, too, as hotter, drier air causes more evaporation, making droughts worse. 

 NORTHWEST HEAT

If anything, forecasts for the heat wave building in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia are even worse than before. Some examples: 

A high of 109 degrees is forecast in Portland, Oregon Sunday. That city's all time high is 107.

Spokane, Washington is expected highs of 110 degrees Monday and Tuesday. That city's all time high is 108 degrees.

Yakima is forecasting a high of 113 degrees Tuesday. 

It's possible that it could reach 112 degrees in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. If it gets that hot, it would tie the record for the hottest temperature in history for all of Canada. 

DROUGHT

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 90 percent of the West is in drought and 50 percent of that area is extreme or exceptional drought, the two worst categories. By many assessments, this is probably the worst on record out there. 

Monsoon moisture seems poised to come into New Mexico and maybe a few spots in Arizona and southern Utah, which might help some communities a bit. But the rest of the region will just keep baking and stay almost rain-free for the foreseeable future. 

EUROPE HEAT

Early season  heat is also ongoing in Europe. 

According to the Washington Post, Moscow and St. Petersburg, Russia, Estonia, Belarus, Malta and Hungary in the past few days all established new records for the hottest temperatures record for June. 

Helsinki, Finland, also broke its all-time record for the month of June with a high of 89 degrees.  Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, also set at new June record with 104 degrees. Sarajevo, Bosnia had a June record for the third straight day with 101 degrees, as reported in the Washington Post.

Last Sunday was the fourth consecutive day that 95 degree weather was reported in Germany. 

The heat will last into the weekend, with epicenter of it being in and near western Russia over the next few days. 

 NEW ENGLAND HEAT

Here in Vermont and most of the rest of the Northeast, and southern Quebec, the pleasant weather of the past few days is about to fade into another hot spell.

This will not be as extreme as the Pacific Northwest, but it will still have its impacts.  At this point, Sunday and Monday will be the worst, with highs topping 90 in most of the warmer valleys of northern New England and in much of southern New England.  Some places in southern and central New England have an excellent shot of reaching 95 degrees or a little more Sunday and Monday. 

A few daily record highs might he challenged here and there, but we definitely won't come close to all time highs like places such as Oregon and Washington State will. 

The humidity will of course stay way up there as well, so nights will be stuffy and not great for a good night's sleep during the upcoming week. 

Although it might not be as hot after Monday, there are signs the very warm and humid weather could last all the way to Friday. That's uncertain at this point, as it all depends on the timing of a cold front that will be trying to make a run at that Bermuda High. 

If stronger than expected, the front could cool us off as early as Wednesday. Or it might wait until Friday or even beyond that. Time will tell.  

Hopes for decent rains are now dashed, too, at least until the middle of the week.  With the hot northwestern extension of the Bermuda High being the main influence, only widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot the landscape Sunday through Tuesday.  If anyone gets any of these storms, the best chances are near the Canadian border. But even there, don't hold your breath on these.

There might be a better chance of showers and storms mid to late week, but that's still iffy. 

Rainfall Roulette: Will Squeeze Play Between Two Heat Waves Bring Needed Precip?

A rainfall forecast for the nation for the next several days.
Reds and oranges depict heavy, likely flooding rains in
the Midwest. The heatwave-plagued Pacific
Northwest would be bone dry. Here in Vermont,
we're on the southeastern edge of all that rain.

 The United States has a pretty unusual weather pattern setting up, especially for this time of year, which makes some aspects of weather forecasting tricky for our neck of the woods around Vermont and nearby spots. 

The jet stream is more amplified than it normally is for summer. Big ridges will be near both coasts, with a deeper than average dip in between. This sets up some weather extremes. 

As we talked about yesterday, a record-shattering heat wave is set to begin in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. 

Here in Vermont, it's another delightfully cool morning. Most of us were in the 40s at dawn today. 

That notorious cold spot in the Adirondacks of New York, Saranac Lake, touched 32 degrees for the second morning in a row. There were also a few upper 30s in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom

Today will be nice, too, breezy and mild and not humid.  But here, too, we're going to get into the heat and humidity by Sunday.  This will all be caused by the Bermuda High poking northwestward to bath us in tropical air. This will be the East Coast ridge.

 It won't be nearly as bad here as in the Pacific Northwest, but we're still in for temperatures well into the 80s to maybe around 90 toward Sunday and Monday, and perhaps beyond. 

Between these two heat waves there will be a lot of rain over the next week or more stretching all they way from New Mexico up through the Midwest and on into Ontario and western Quebec. 

After the stories about the extreme heat in the Northwest, you'll probably hear of flooding problems in that long band. 

I'm pretty sure this overall broad brush forecast for the United States and southern Canada are pretty damn accurate. 

The problem is in the details for us in Vermont. The edge of that big rainy band will be just to our northwest. 

How much of that needed rain will creep into the Green Mountain State? Some forecasts have the northwestern extension of the Bermuda High dominating, keep us hot and humid with just widely scattered afternoon and evening thundershowers.  Which means very little rain. 

Other forecasts have weather fronts with that band of wet weather making runs at us from time to time nexrt week, giving us decent amounts of badly needed rain. The best chances of that happening are over northwestern Vermont, with the smallest chance to the southeast. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is fairly bullish on rainfall over the next seven days, giving most of Vermont roughly an inch of rain over that time period. An inch of rain per week is pretty close to average this time of year. 

Don't bet on that, though. It could still go either way. For now, I'm really not trusting forecasts for rain more than two days out.  We do know the earliest chance of rain for Vermont is Saturday.  At this point, it does not look like any showers that do get going on Saturday will be particularly heavy. 

After that, we'll just have to wait and see as to whether the rain gods smile on us or not.