New England Heat Wave To End With Some Severe Storms

Cooling centers like this one opened in the Pacific Northwest
in the past few days as unprecedented heat took hold.
There has unfortunately been a dramatic uptick in deaths
in the region due to the heat

 We'll have to watch the skies for severe storms today, especially from Route 2 south in Vermont, and especially from Route 4 south and on through southern New England and the New York metro area today. 

More on that in a minute and what it means for us  in a minute (Spoiler: It will help end the heat wave)

But the heat both out west and to a slightly lesser extent here in the Northeast continues to impress. 

Following is a hodgepodge of facts and figures that proves that point. 

CANADIAN HEAT AND TRAGEDY

The most impressive stat so far is from Lytton, British Columbia, Canada. As previously reported, that town on Sunday broke the record high for all of Canada with 116 degrees. That record lasted a whole day, as Lytton reached 118 on Monday. And THAT record was brief, too, as Lytton hit an astounding 121 degrees on Tuesday.

I saw one statistic that showed the previous world record high for that far north in latitude was 112 degrees.

There were many worries the extreme southwestern Canadian heat would lead to a large number of deaths in the part of the world where 100 degree heat - especially heat like that lasting for days, would lead to a number of deaths. 

Those fears have unfortunately been realized.  Authorities in the area around Vancouver, British Columbia are investigating more than 130 sudden deaths, most of which are suspected of having been caused by the extreme heat. 

Here's a tragic quote via the BBC:

"'I've been a police officer for 15 year and I've never experienced the volume of sudden deaths that have come in such a short period of time," police sergeant Steve Addison said. Three or four a day is the normal number."

The Canadian heat wave death toll is expected to rises, especially since the extremely hot weather is continuing today and beyond in southwestern parts of the country.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Deaths are above normal in the northwestern United States due to the heat as well. A farmworker in Oregon has died in the hot weather, and other fatalities are being investigated as possibly heat related as well.  Hospital emergency rooms have seen a surge in patients with heat related illnesses.  One person was treated for third degree burns on his feet from walking barefoot on asphalt. 

The heat has waned near the coast. Seattle set by far it's all time record hottest temperature on Monday with 108 degrees but it was "only" 85 degrees there Tuesday. Portland, Oregon went from an all-time high of 116 degrees Monday to 93 degrees Tuesday.

The heat continued inland, though. Spokane, Washington suffered through an all time record high of 109 degrees Tuesday, and it could get that hot again today. 

This heat wave is forecast to linger in the interior Northwest through the weekend at least, and spread into the Northern Plains. 

NORTHEAST HEAT

The heat wave in the Northeast has been on the impressive side as well. 

Hartford, Connecticut reached 99 degrees Tuesday for a new record high.  Boston also reached 99 degrees, tying the record for the date. 

It appears Portland, Maine will have its hottest June on record. Boston and other New England cities will come close.  

In Burlington, Vermont, we're on track to have our third hottest June on record, or perhaps second warmest, depending upon how today goes.

Tuesday was already the eighth day this year in Burlington with a high of 90 degrees or more.  The record for a single season is  26 such days.  We still have July and August to get through. 

The heat is already to begin to wane in the far north, and should disappear in most places in the Northeast by tomorrow, but there's a price to pay for that

SEVERE WEATHER 

Things seem very well set up today for a burst of severe thunderstorms in central and southern New England.

In Vermont, the most likely area for severe weather is from about Route 2 south, with the threat increasing the further south you go.

Far northern Vermont is closest to the cold front that will end the heat wave.  It's already cloudy up that way, which will sharply reduce instability, which is one key ingredient you need for severe thunderstorms. 

The threat of severe storms is highest in central
New England today, but almost the entire
region could see a strong to severe storm.

Also, as is common with severe weather potential in our region, there's a pre-frontal trough, sort of a mini weather front coming in first.  Severe storms usually for along and ahead of such a trough.  The pre-frontal trough will have already gone through northwestern Vermont by late this morning, minimizing but  not eliminating the threat of severe weather in that area.

This also reduces the chances of that area getting needed, decent rains. 

One technical thing meteorologists look for when forecasting thunderstorms is Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE. it refers to the maximum speed of potential updrafts in thunderstorms.  Strong sunshine can increase instability, and thereby increase CAPE values. 

The higher the CAPE value, the higher the probability of severe storms.  If the CAPE value gets really high, you can get particularly intense storms. 

There are other factors you need to create severe weather, but if CAPE values start to go above 1,000, that's one sign of potential strong thunderstorms.  If you get up around 3,000, you really want to watch out, if other atmospheric conditions are there to contribute to storms. 

Projected CAPE values today ranged from near 900 in far northwestern Vermont, to as high as 3,000 in southern Vermont.  Parts of southern New England close in on 4,000. I'm sure we'll see at least a few reports of strong damaging winds the further south you go today.

The Storm Prediction Center has the best chances of severe thunderstorms in central New England. By far the biggest threat is strong, straight-line winds.  Like in the last severe weather event earlier this month, there is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado in southern and eastern Vermont New Hampshire and Maine.

We still need rain. Southern Vermont and southern New England have been doing a little better lately with rainfall. Northern Vermont continues to keep missing out.  

And of course that trend will continue.  There's still a good chance of some rain in the north with showers and thunderstorms, but I don't think it will amount to a whole lot, except for the lucky few that get bulleyed by a couple local downpours.

The cold front will get hung up near or just south of the New England coast, and it looks like a small storm will form along it. This will spread rain back northward Friday, but again, northern Vermont looks to get lighter amounts from this. 

It will temporarily get much cooler under the clouds and rain, with some places in eastern Vermont staying in the 60s or highs on Friday.  It'll warm up again by Sunday and Monday.