Flash Flooding In A Drought? It Can Happen. Will It?

Despite rather dry conditions, there
is a low chance of some flash flooding
in areas in green. A bit more of a risk
in yellow areas.

Yes, yes, you've heard it already. It's dry out there in Vermont. We need the rain. I'm happy some rain is falling today. Bummed we have a hot, dry spell coming. Yada, yada, yada. 

So why is flooding mentioned today in the Vermont forecast?  

No matter how dry it gets, you can always still see too much of a good thing. If a beneficial downpour lingers in one spot too long, you can run into trouble. And it's possible that could happen today and tonight in a few spots 

Before we get too carried away with this, the chances of any flash flooding are on the low side. If it does occur, it will happen in relatively small areas. Most of us in Vermont will actually receive less rain than we'd want.  

There's also a low, but real chance of locally severe storms in central and southern Vermont too. 

Let's break it down. 

A warm front was lifting north through Vermont early this morning.  An area of light, sometimes moderate, decent rain was clipping northwestern parts of the state.  As I write this, it was raining steadily outside my St. Albans home. It's lovely to see the rain.  I spent the day yesterday stirring up dust in my gardens.

Northern Vermont, though, will probably miss out on the heaviest rains, although there certainly be more showers here through today and into tonight. (As of 7 a.m., Burlington had missed out entirely, just sprinkles there).

Today's interesting weather is slated for central and southern Vermont.

Wind flow and upper air disturbances seem to want to align just right later today and this evening to form the risk of training showers and thunderstorms. 

As a reminder, training storms are ones that line up and go repeatedly, one after the other, over the same spot, like boxcars on a freight train moving along the railroad tracks .

Training storms set up a narrow band where rain is excessive, and can lead to flash flooding.   Indications are this could happen somewhere through central New York and southern or central Vermont. The risk of flash flooding is fairly low,  but one worth mentioning to be on the safe side. 

It's hard to tell in advance exactly where, and even if, this band of training storms would set up to create the risk of flash flooding.  If it does, a few places could get two to four inches of rain, or even a tad more within a short period of time. 

This morning's best guess among forecasters about where this might happen would be in central New York, through the Lake George/Saratoga area and on into southwestern Vermont somewhere between Bennington and Rutland.   

There is a marginal risk of severe storms
today in central and southern Vermont.
Any bad storms will be pretty isolated.

Areas as far north as Montpelier and Wells River could still share in this excitement, but the risk there is lower.

Be on the lookout for this tonight if on the roads. This is a situation in which one town just some rain while the next town over gets deluged. You're driving along and everything's fine, and all of a sudden you encounter water from a flooding small stream gushing across the road, or the road is washed out beneath the water.

Also, some of the flash flooding, if it does occur, would hit at night, so it's harder to see if you're on the roads. 

Water from heavy downpours that do occur tend to run off quickly, so today's rain - even if it causes local flooding -  will be no drought buster.

By the way, a few thunderstorms in southern and central Vermont could become severe later today with damaging wind gusts. 

The Storm Prediction Center has this area under a marginal risk for severe weather, which is the lowest of five alert categories. Any severe storms will be isolated and pretty brief.

There might be some more interesting weather and skies Saturday evening as the long advertised heat wave begins to take hold. 

Indications are some severe thunderstorms, maybe even a couple tornadic ones, could form well north of the border in parts of Ontario and southwestern Quebec.

Toward evening, some of these storms could come near or cross the border into far northern Vermont. Certainly no tornadoes here, but there is still a rather low, but not zero chance of severe wind gusts to a couple locations in the far north. 

In any event, there could be a fun light show of lightning flashes for people in Vermont looking north toward Quebec Saturday evening.