Saturday, June 19, 2021

We Collected A Little Rain In Vermont As East Turns Stormy; Few Strong Ones NEK

New cucumber plants in my St.  Albans, Vermont garden
surely enjoyed last night's rain.  We still need a lot more 
precipitation, but at least we got something
UPDATE: 1:30 p.m.

Some  thunderstorms are rapidly developing in Quebec, northern Vermont and points east at this hour.

NOAA' Storm Prediction Center says these could develop into rather dangerous supercells for the next few hours. 

These will be few and far between, so most of us are OK. But there is the risk of scattered strong, damaging winds and hail with these.

The areas that could be hit are Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, southeastern Quebec, northern New Hampshire and most of Maine away from the coast.

Around 1 p.m. I watched a storm blow up from a small cloud, essentially, to a pretty good, but not yet severe storm just north of my house in St. Albans, Vermont.  That one could turn into a supercell, though, as it heads into the Northeast Kingdom. Uncertain if it will, but worth keeping an eye out.  It sort of has that "look."

A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely since the storms will be few and far between, as noted. But keep an eye on the sky in the areas I mentioned. There could even be some storms further south and west, roughly north and east of a Plattsburgh to White River Junction line.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 It's been a stormy start to the weekend in much of the East as severe storms, flash floods, high winds and even a mess of a tropical storm are hitting various places east of the Mississippi River.

The weather pattern is so inclement that a few places here in Vermont managed to pick up a little rain overnight and early this morning. 

That's an accomplishment, considering how rain has seemed to make a point of detouring around the Green Mountain State this year.  

Rapidly developing thunderstorm just north of 
St. Albans, Vermont early this afternoon. This one was
racing east toward Vermont's NEK


It didn't rain in all of Vermont. Southern parts of the state mostly missed out on any precipitation. But in the north, it's a start, if nothing else.  

My very unofficial rain gauge here in St. Albans picked 0.40 inches.   It's enough that perhaps I can skip the now daily chore of watering the gardens. At least for one day. It looks like Burlington managed a little over a third of an inch, and Morrisville was closing in on a  half inch of new rain.   Even so, a lot more rain is needed. 

Most of us won't get any more rain today, but there is still the threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm or two.

A weather front is approaching from the west, which is what could set of those widely scattered storms this afternoon. It's technically a cold front, but since the air doesn't really get any cooler behind it, the term "cold front" seems excessive.

A punch of dry air from the south and southwest will limit how many storms can develop today. But with strong winds aloft and the upper atmosphere cooling off high above us, some of the few storms that develop could blast a Vermont town or two with strong gusty winds. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center previously had us in a marginal risk zone for severe storms today,  the lowest of five levels of severe weather alerts. However, that was dropped by mid-morning for all but extreme northeastern Vermont and on into Maine. Southern New England could also still get a few severe storms.

For most of Vermont, there could be some widely scattered storms today and one or two might be on the strongish side, but there won't be a widespread severe event today. Still, keep an eye to the sky and head indoors if you see dark, threatening clouds or hear thunder. That's especially true if you receive a severe thunderstorm warning. 

Sunday will be a delightful, warm summer day, so that's your opportunity to go aside and enjoy boating, beaches, hiking, etc. 

A brief spurt of hot, humid air on Monday could bring temperatures to near 90 in the warmer valleys and set off some more afternoon thunderstorms, some locally severe.

There is some question as to how slowly a cold front will come through around Monday night and Tuesday and whether and how it will interact with the remains of sloppy Tropical Storm Claudette.  There's potential for a decent amount of rain, but I'm still not really holding my breath on that one 

CLAUDETTE

Speaking of Tropical Storm Claudette, it's one of the most disorganized messes of a tropical storm I've seen. Of course, the aesthetics of a tropical storm don't really matter to most people. It's what kind of weather it's bringing. 

Claudette is causing some flooding from heavy rain along the Gulf Coast, and there has been reports of a couple tornadoes down there too. There was also a fairly impressive storm surge on the Gulf Coast of Mississippi considering the relative weakness of the storm.  

Tornado damage in Indiana from Friday. Severe weather 
will continue in the Midwest today and tomorrow.

Flooding will continue in spots today as Claudette moves inland. Rainfall rates in some spots are as high as five inches per hour with this storm, so you know there's going to be high water.

I still have to address Claudette's appearance though. It didn't even have enough strength to be declared a tropical storm until it was on or even inland from the Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana this morning. That's unusual because tropical storms are almost always declared while they are over water.

The heavy weather, rain and thunderstorms with Claudette this morning were displaced well to the east of its center, as opposed to organized roughly around the center of the storm, which is normal for a tropical storm. This was more of some sort of hybrid storm, and not a classic tropical storm.

That's not to say places along the Gulf Coast didn't experience tropical storm conditions, with winds of at least 39 mph. For instance, Gulfport, Mississippi at one point early today had winds of 43 mph, gusting to 58 mph.

Again, that matters most to weather nerds, but is still worth noting.

SEVERE WEATHER

Areas under threat for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are covering an oddly large area of the nation.  

Besides us, pretty much everybody in the Northeast and in a wide band extending westward all the way to Colorado could see severe thunderstorms today.  Pockets of severe thunderstorms are common in June, but the areas being hit are larger than usual. 

It was bad enough yesterday and last night. A damaging tornado hit eastern Indiana yesterday, and this morning there was widespread flash flooding in Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky.

More severe weather is likely tomorrow in some of the same areas hit Friday and today in the Midwest.



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