Vermont Foliage Stripper Winds Howl Today; Still Expecting A Brief Winter Interlude Before Calm, Pleasant Week Ensues

My lawn in St. Albans, Vermont is suddenly littered with 
leaves as strong winds blew through this morning. 
Tomorrow will be much colder, with a wintry
feel to the air. But the cold wave will be over by Sunday. 

 The wind was howling outside mph windows here in St. Albans, Vermont, and the air was filled with flying leaves as our foliage stripping storm roars on. 

The Champlain Valley was taking the brunt of it, as gusts were well over 40 mph in spots. By 8:30 a.m. , the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued a wind advisory through 4 p.m. today, for gusts up to at least 45 mph.

At one point this morning, there were almost 1,000 power outages in the Champlain Valley. I'm sure a few more will pop up as we go through the day. 

It was breezy in other parts of Vermont, but not nearly as much as in the Champlain Valley.  Here's how the rest of today looks:

TODAY

The rest of the day will be shower, windy, especially in the Champlain Valley, and briefly warmer. Highs should get into the 50s to some 60s, mostly west of the Green Mountains. It looks like the showers might be  more concentrated in the mid-afternoon to evening time frame. There might even be a rumble of thunder.

No severe storms are expected here in Vermont, but the storm is dynamic enough to raise the risk of severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic States, extending as far north as Connecticut.

The storms's cold front should cross through Vermont this evening, causing those temperatures to drop and snowflakes to fly in the mountains late tonight. 

SATURDAY

Our brief introduction to winter is still on track. But just as we suspected, the intensity of it doesn't look like it will be as intense as some earlier forecasts 

Still, Saturday will be a shock to the system. Early day snow showers will dust the ground at elevations of above 1,500 feet, and the mountain summits will get maybe a couple inches of fresh powder. 

Highs will only get into the 30s in the Northeast Kingdom and 40s elsewhere. Probably low 40s in most places. The foliage stripping will continue as northwest winds rocket through with gusts to at least 30 mph most places. The wind will be more widespread than it is today, even if gusts won't be as strong as they are today in the Champlain Valley. 

Saturday will be no day for a foliage hike in the mountains. Underfoot it will be wet, with icy snow at higher elevations. Temperatures will remain below freezing all day as you approach the summits and wind chills up there will be in the single digits. 

It'll be a nice novelty, though, seeing the white capped mountains surrounded by splashes of color remaining as stick season begins to emerge.

SUNDAY

What cold wave?

The frigid blast will end as quickly as it began. Sunday will dawn cold, with temperatures across the state in the 20s. But under sunshine, temperatures should reach the low 50s at least. For reference, Sunday afternoon will be very similar to yesterday afternoon. So, yeah, pretty damn nice. 

NEXT WEEK

I don't need to pick out the weather on individual days next week, because it will be pretty much the same all week. The overall weather pattern will stall, much to our benefit.

A storm will spin and  not move all that much off the Carolina and Virginia coasts. Meanwhile, it looks as if a sprawling, huge high pressure system will linger over or near New England all week. That means sunshine most days, with pretty normal temperatures for this time of year. 

That means comfortable afternoons with temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s, and cool overnight lows in the 30s. Not a true Indian Summer because it won't be unusually warm. But close enough. 

We'll have light winds, too

Those light winds will be great for those of you who will be raking leaves. The job is so hard to do when the wind is howling, so next week will be a great break for that.  

A Calm Day In Vermont Before A WildStormy, Windy, Snowy, Frigid (For October) 48 Hours

The trees in back of my St. Albans, Vermont home, 
stubbornly green until recently, have finally changed
colors. Many of those leaves will blow off in the 
coming days due to windy, rainy, then frigid
weather. A brief winter intro is coming. 

We awoke to at skies that were at least partly blue, a nice switch from northern Vermont's gloom and gray skies from yesterday. Southern Vermont had some sun, but also a few lingering showers, so it wasn't really a perfect autumn day. 

Rainfall totals from our wet storm are completely in. It looks like a pretty broad area of northwest Vermont  had 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. 

The Northeast Kingdom, which really needed the rain, had a respectable one to two inches. Amounts generally tapered off as you went south. By the time you reached Route 9 in far southern Vermont, less than half an inch fell.

We're in for a bit of a wild ride the next few days until things really, firmly calm down again, so let's get into it

TODAY

The pick of the week. Not perfect, but pretty damn good. Lots of sunshine, mixed with sun clouds, will augment the beautiful fall foliage. It'll be cooler than yesterday, especially compared to the balmy temperatures southern Vermont  had yesterday. Most of  us will see the low 50s. 

Enjoy the foliage, because a lot of it will blow away starting tomorrow. 

FRIDAY

Here's where the excitement begins big time. Rain should spread into Vermont early in the day. It'll be a rainy, windy day, with the most wind in the Champlain Valley and many areas in the northern Green Mountains. This won't be a damaging wind storm by any means, except to the fall foliage. Winds should gust to 40 mph in some places. 

On the Green Mountain summits, winds should gust to 55 to 65 mph. Between the rain and the wind, it won't be a day to go on a hike. In fact, up there, it will be dangerous. 

We'll see another decent rainfall, too, with amounts coming in between a half inch and an inch for most of us by Friday night. 

The storm's sharp cold front will come through in the evening and temperatures will plunge through the 40s and 30s Friday night. Rain will change to snow in the mountains, though precipitation rates will get much lighter as drier air moves in. 

SATURDAY

Here's our introduction to winter. Thankfully, it won't last long. Snow levels will fall such that even valleys could see some early morning flurries. There might be a thin scrim of snow on the ground at elevations above 1,500 feet. A couple inches of snow will dust the summits. 

Even though some areas will see a little sun by afternoon, it will be incredibly cold for mid-October. We might be seeing some record cold "high" temperatures. The record cold high temperature in Burlington for Saturday is 42. In Montpelier, it's 37. Unless it's still relatively warm just after midnight, we'll come close to tying or breaking those records. 

The National Weather Service tells us temperatures on the mountain summits will hold in the upper teens to around 20 all day. Welcome to January in Vermont. For one day, anyway. 

Strong northwest winds will make it feel much colder. If you can bundle up, go out and enjoy the snoliage views. Most of the leaves will have blown off, except in the lower, warmer valleys. But there will still be some. colorful trees and branches left. The contrast with the high elevation snow will be just lovely. 

SUNDAY

Definitely a cold start, but not as cold as you'd think, given how chilly Saturday will be. The core of the cold air will be moving away early Sunday. So, we'll start the day in the 20s, with a couple upper teens in the coldest hollows. Places like Burlington, St. Albans and other places close to Lake Champlain have avoided a freeze so far. Not this time. 

The day will get better as it goes along. Highs should reach to near 50, low 50s in the warmer valleys. The sun will be out, and winds will be much lighter. We'll actually have  lovely, crisp afternoon. 

NEXT WEEK

This week has been pretty wild for Vermont weather. Next week, not so much. Expect a fair amount of sun pretty much every day, with seasonable temperatures. That means frosty mornings in some spots with lows in the 30s, and highs in the 50s to low 60s. No weather systems of note seem to want to come through next week. 

We'll let you know if anything change. s

Isaias Rain To Remain Mostly In Southern Vermont, But North Could Get Decent Rain Monday Night/Tuesday

A gorgeous autumn Saturday yesterday as seen from atop
Fairfield Hill in St. Albans, Vermont. 

After a stunningly gorgeous Saturday in Vermont, high clouds have covered the sky. 

Those high clouds started coming in during the day yesterday, but they weren't thick enough to interfere with a bright, crisp October day.  Classic Vermont. Even the air almost smelled like pumpkin spice. So what happens next? Let's get into it: 

TODAY

The high clouds, of course, are coming from the remains of Hurricane Isaias, which, as we know, slammed into the Florida Panhandle Friday evening. 

Despite the clouds, temperatures should reach the low 60s today, which is pretty close to average. 

The clouds will lower and thicken through the day, so that it'll be pretty overcast by this afternoon. Rain will move into southern Vermont this afternoon and slowly works its way north. That rain, however, will be battling dry air to the north. 

All this means that northern areas now look like they'll see practically nothing out of this. Forecasts that were issued this morning don't bring much rain to the north tonight at all. Some spots along the Canadian border might remain completely dry. 

For now, the National Weather Service is going for about three quarters of an inch near the Massachusetts border. Amounts quickly diminish to around a third on an inch around Rutland and White River Junction, then  less than a tenth of an inch in Burlington and St. Johnsbury. 

The rainfall forecast is subject to change. Given the forecast trends, I wouldn't be surprised if Vermont receives even less rain than forecast. 

The rain should end by early morning. 

If you don't get much needed rain tonight, we still have a shot at more rain. Including in the north. 

MONDAY

We'll be between weather systems tomorrow. That means mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s. Most of the day will ve dry. We could see some very early morning showers. And more rain might start to break out in the north late in the day.  

TUESDAY

The next storm comes through Monday night through Tuesday. It's not a huge weather system, but it's getting an assist from former Tropical Storm Rachael. That storm hit far northwest Mexico late yesterday. It's causing coastal destruction in southern California and heavy rain/flooding in the Desert Southwest, and on into the southern Rocky Mountains. 

Some of that moisture is getting quickly pulled into our little storm system for Monday night and Tuesday. 

If the forecast holds northern Vermont, which really needs the rain, could receive a decent half inch to an inch of rain out of this.  Somewhat less rain will fall in the south, but at least they'll get a little. 

WEDNESDAY

Like most autumn storms, this one will have a cold front. But the front won't have a ton of cold air behind it.  We'll have the kind of day that's typical for the day after cold front in Vermont. We'll have lots of clouds, especially north. 

There could be some light showers, with temperatures in the 50s. Northwest winds will make it feel chillier. It doesn't look like it will be nippy enough for snow on the mountain summits. So no taste of a winter wonderland quite yet. 

LATE WEEK

At this point, Thursday looks like a nice fall day, probably much like yesterday did.  Friday and the weekend looks like it might bring us our annual foliage stripper storm - wind and rain that will introduce much of Vermont to stick season.  However, pretty foliage will continue in and near the Champlain Valley and warmer southern valleys even after the storm. 

That said, some extended forecasts give us a shot at some of the coldest mid-October weather we've seen in years. Stay tuned on that! 

 

Nor'easter Is Pummeling East Coast Today, Vermont To Have Varying Experiences With The Storm

The nor'easter was centered off the Virginia coast as of
around 8 a.m this morning. It's at the center of that
swirl of clouds. The thick clouds well to the 
north and west of the storm center signified the
roughest weather at the time, with wind and 
heavy rain through far southern New England 
Long Island and down into New Jersey and
Delaware, Vermont will remain on the edge of storm

The nor'easter we've been watching all week is now in full force along the East Coast from Virginia northward. 

It's already a mess along the Northeast coast. 

Along the Delaware and New Jersey shores, major coastal flooding was expected at this morning's high tide. When they start throwing around the words "major flooding", you know there's going to be damage.

Even before this  morning's high tides, there was widespread flooding along coastal streets in New Jersey, and some homes had been flooded.

The timing of this nor'easter is bad. The full harvest moon is today, and that is causing  higher tides, even without a big storm make things exponentially worse. 

In southeastern Massachusetts, mainly Cape Cod and the islands, winds have already been pretty ferocious. Gusts have reached 64 degrees on Nantucket, 62 mph on Martha's Vineyard and 59 mph in Hyannis. 

The Associated Press was reporting 60,000 power outages already, and that number will go up as the storm continues to rake the Northeast. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Here in Vermont, parts of the state are already feeling the fringe effects of the nor'easter this morning. The Green Mountain State looks to stay largely on the fringes throughout the event. But the experience will be sharply different depending on where you are in the state. 

If I were completely selfish, I'd wish this storm was moving about 50 to 100 miles further north than expected. That would have made the storm worse in southern New England, but would have also given all of Vermont a very nice, needed soaking of rain. 

Instead, rain bands are, and will rotate north and westward into Vermont today and tomorrow. Those rain bands will peter out as they head deeper into the state. Dry air connected to strong high pressure to our north and west will eat up the moisture, probably leaving the northwestern part of the state with mostly just occasional sprinkles. 

Let's get into the daily details

Today

As of 8 a.m this morning the first rain band from the nor'easter had already made it into southeast Vermont. The rain should become a little more steady and heavier this afternoon down that way. Under the clouds and rain, temperatures will probably hold hear 60 degrees

The further north and west you go, the drier it will become. Northwestern Vermont should actually have a decent day. It'll be cloudy, with maybe some breaks of sun and mild, with highs up in the 70 to 73 degree range. 

In between those two extremes, central Vermont will have a mediocre weather day with clouds, perhaps a very light shower and temperatures well into the 60s. 

Tonight/Sunday

This period will contain  the bulk of the storm in southern Vermont. Tonight and tomorrow down there will be decidedly rainy and in some places windy. In southeastern Vermont, some of the rain bands could bring some briefly heavy rains. 

As those rain bands work north and west, they'll weaken just as they will today. But they will have a little more oomph. That means central Vermont will have a somewhat showery, cool day, though rainfall amounts won't be huge. Maybe a few hundredth of an inch of rain. Maybe 0.1 to 0.2 inches in the wetter spots. 

Northwest Vermont is in for an OK day again. It will be cloudy and a little cooler than today. (upper 60s). There's a chance of a few sprinkles in the afternoon and evening, but certainly nothing to really wet things down. 

Winds will pick up too. In most of the state, it will just be a north to northeasterly breeze but nothing weird.  However, along the western slopes of the southern and maybe central Green Mountains, it could get quite gusty. 

Some of those gusts could be between 40 and 50 mph.  I don't see any wind advisories for this area yet, but the National Weather Service might issue such an alert later today. 

Monday

Northern and probably central Vermont will have the wettest period from this nor'easter, but that isn't saying much. By then, the nor'easter would have greatly weakened and started moving toward the northeast, through New England. 

Showers should fall statewide, but the rain won't amount to much north. Maybe a quarter inch in many places, but maybe a tenth of an inch or less far northwest. Because of the showers, it will be a little cooler with highs in the 58 to 65 degree range. 

Total rainfall from the nor'easter is now forecast to come up to as much as two inches in the far southern Green Mountains. Most of the southeastern quarter of the state can expect maybe an inch. Central Vermont is due for between a quarter and a half inch, with locally higher amounts.   

The far northwest can expect a quarter inch or less, with some areas getting only a tenth of an inch or less.

Bottom line: Beneficial rains in the southeast, but mostly a whiff for the rest of Vermont

CAVEATS

Nor'easters are notoriously tricky. Especially slow moving ones like this character.  Some areas of the state might receive more or less rain than forecast. I'm hoping for a miracle that would bring heavier rain to northern Vermont, but so far it doesn't seem to be in the cards. Doesn't mean it can't happen. 

The storm will continue to batter the northeastern coast today and at least part of tomorrow before weakening. So you'll see dramatic videos of waves and coastal floods on the news. In Vermont, it'll just be another so-so autumn weekend. 

A Cold, Damp Vermont Sunday, And A Cool Autumnal Week

Today's rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service in South Burlington. Though it
will be a rainy day, we ultimately won't get all that
much. The driest part of the state, the Northeast
Kingdom, will unfortunately see the least

 Saturday in Vermont felt like mid-October, with crisp air and bright blue skies, at least in  northern Vermont.

 High clouds were already starting to increase in southern Vermont. Those clouds were a sign of a very chilly Sunday coming in. 

The clouds were in place over Vermont as dawn broke today and rain was spreading in. Light rain should fall all day, though eastern Vermont should see mostly dry weather until mid to late morning. 

All this should hold daytime temperatures down in the 50s. As noted yesterday, this will be the coldest September 20 high temperatures since 1990, when the high was 53. 

The coldest high temperature on this date was 50 degrees in 1962  (The year 1962 was among the coldest on record in Vermont, as measured in Burlington). 

If it's going to rain, you want it to be beneficial, a real soaker. Unfortunately that won't be the case. Instead, it will mostly be annoying light rain, drizzle and sprinkles.  The rain might pick up at times to briefly feel drenching, but it won't be really make everything sopping wet. 

Only a thin top layer of the ground will get wet. There won't be enough rain to soak deeper. The Northeast Kingdom most needs the rain the most, and they'll get the least.

Some places in the NEK will receive less than a quarter inch of rain. Most of the state will see a modest quarter to a half inch. A few places in the far south could get a little more than a half inch

We're setting ourselves up for a cool week, too. Daytime highs won't be as cold as today, but we'll have to watch the nights for the risk of frost in a few spots. .

MONDAY

It will probably take its time clearing up during the day. Overall, most of us will have a mostly cloudy day, with more sun maybe in the Connecticut River valley. With cool north breezes blowing, it'll stay cool, with highs within a few degrees either side of 60.

 Some clearing Monday night will send temperatures down into the 35 to 42 degree range for most of us. Colder valleys could have some frost. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Massive, cool high pressure will set up to our north in Quebec, while low pressure is stuck in the Mid-Atlantic states or just offshore. This should keep us dry and chilly through the week. Some models take the Mid-Atlantic storm, or at least some of its moisture our way towards the end of the week. That's tossup right now, so we'll have to see how that plays out. 

Chances are, unfortunately, that we get little rain from that storm. But, we shall see!

Repeated Rain Chances Keep Heading South Of Vermont

This is subject to change, but this is an guess as to how
much rain will fall between now and Saturday morning
As you can see northern areas largely miss out.
All the good soakers are going mostly to our south

 We could surely use more rain in Vermont. A series of weak, but very wet disturbance are about to turn much of the Northeast soggy. But the Green Mountain State looks like it will largely miss out. 

Southern Vermont might still eke out a decent wetting over the next several days. But unless there's an abrupt change in the forecast, northern Vermont will miss out. 

The first disturbance came in yesterday with ominous afternoon clouds in the north which amounted to......about three raindrops. 

It seems like days in advance, we think we're going to get a soaking, then it turns out not to be a big deal.Thi

Let's walk through the forecast;

TODAY

The warmest day of the week. Then gloom overhead should break up somewhat to become a variably cloudy day. Highs should get well into the 70s, with some banana belt warm valleys touching 80 degrees. One of summer's last gasps. 

THURSDAY

We're in a squeeze play between a front to the south that will have a little disturbance riding along it and a cold front coming in from the  north. 

This setup looks like it will create some rain in the south. But questions remain as to how far north this might get. Varying computer models disagree so we might have some surprises. For now. maybe a quarter to a third of an inch of rain might come down in southern Vermont. That would gradually taper off to a trace to a tenth of an inch north. 

Again, results may vary. 

We're into September now, so we're more likely to see just plain rain rather than scattered showers and thunderstorms. So, probably no thunder tomorrow. Highs should make it into the low and mid 70s for most of us so not bad. 

FRIDAY

We'll squeeze in a classic autumn day. We should have sunshine with highs in the 60s to near 70. A brisk northwest breeze will add a chilly bite to the air. Humidity will plummet, says the National Weather Service, setting us up for a chilly night with frost possible in colder places again

SATURDAY

Dawn Saturday is looking a little colder than the nippy one we experienced yesterday.  Just a couple degrees makes a big difference on whether you'll see frost or not. Only one or two isolated areas had frost yesterday. Saturday morning, this frost might hit a few more of the colder hollows of northern and central Vermont. 

I imagine some places might end up falling under a frost advisory. Stay tuned for updates.  The rest of the day should be more typical September. Highs in the 60s with maybe some increasing clouds. 

The next rainy system looks like it would arrive Saturday night and Sunday. Early indications are this one could, once again, go by to our south, but there's plenty of time for that forecast to change

It's True Autumn In Vermont Now, And You'll Notice It

Raindrops on a flower this morning in St. Albans, 
Vermont. There's a chance of more showers and 
thunderstorms later today, but some places 
might not get any new rain at all

Typically in Vermont, the first week or so of September often still feels like summer. Then, that warmth fades away. 

We pretty much are feeling that this year. Sure, we'll have a few summer-ish days yet. We'll have several more warm days before winter hits, of course. 

Today will be among those warmer days.  This morning, the vaguely humid, wet air still had the distinct aroma of autumn, not summer. 

Yesterday, Vermont was blessed with yet another gorgeous Saturday. Since at least June, Saturdays have tended to be nice. Just the fortunate rhythm of the weather patterns, I guess. 

After a Saturday morning in Burlington that was the coolest since June 3. it was also comfortably warm that afternoon.  But it felt nothing like summer. Just a gorgeous September day. 

Let's look ahead at what's coming. 

TODAY

Most of Vermont had some rain overnight and early this morning. It looks like most places had a third of an inch of rain. A few places received close to a half inch of rain.  It was still raining early today in eastern Vermont, which is great, as it's needed.  

This Vermont rain is the outer edge of much heavier downpours in southern New England. Flash flood warnings were up in Connecticut, and those flooding rains were spreading toward Rhode Island and Massachusetts. 

Today will actually not be a terribly bad weather day. Better than I thought 24 hours ago. Maybe not as rainy or stormy as originally thought. That said, we still have a shower and even a thunderstorm risk. 

Some clearing will arrive this afternoon, which could send us one of two ways as a cold front approaches. 

On one hand, dry and sinking air behind this morning's rain could help squelch showers and thunderstorms that want to develop. On the other hand, the sun could increase the amount of instability in the air. That would encourage some thunderstorms. 

Any showers that do develop will be mostly in the late afternoon and evening. 

The bottom line is, we still have a marginal risk of severe storms today. That means there could be isolated instances of damaging winds or large hail. Most of us will be fine. 

This is also a conditional forecast, meaning we don't know whether the sinking air or the strong sun will win out. We might see no thunderstorms, or quite a few of them, depending on which scenario wins. 

Showers should continue into the evening.

MONDAY

You know those autumn days I mentioned above? Monday will be one of those. It'll be even chillier than it was on Friday. Morning clouds will yield to sunshine. Those clouds might hold tough for much of the day in the Northeast Kingdom.  Despite afternoon sunshine in most of Vermont, temperatures will hold in the 60s. Some colder spots in the Northeast Kingdom could stay in the 50s. 

The cold hollows in Vermont and New York need to worry about frost Monday night. 

TUESDAY

The morning will start cold. Dawn temperatures will be between 38 to 45 degrees, a little colder than it was Saturday morning. Frost will probably glisten on the grass in the coldest hollow of eastern Vermont. That's nothing unusual for this time of year, but it's a reminder that it's September. 

Much like Saturday, south winds will help boost afternoon temperatures into the low 70s. A weak front that will be falling apart over northern New England Tuesday night. That will create clouds. The clouds, and some south winds will hold temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s. 

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We've been talking about a fast west to east air flow that makes forecasts challenging. Forecasters think a weather disturbance might come through with some rain later Wednesday and Thursday. But we're not sure if that will actually happen or not. It could go too far south or north of us. 

It'll be on the seasonably warm side, with highs Wednesday through Friday in the 70s and lows in the 50s. But beyond that, it looks like cooler weather will settle in. 

 

Changeable Vermont Weather Coming Up But Questions On HOW It Will Change

Henry the Weather Dog sploots down
in the shade, resting for a bit while
playing at the dog park yesterday. Henry
expects more sunshine but cooler
weather on his trip to the park today.

We're starting out or Friday with mostly clear skies, except for some lingering clouds near the Canadian border.  

Those clouds should break up a little bit as we go through the day. The blue skies will be dotted by a few pretty clouds much of their day. 

September usually brings big bubbles of high pressure drifting by. Those feature spells of bright, sunny, cool weather, interspersed with cloudy periods. Those are the cold fronts that separate the big bubbles of high pressure.

The problem is teasing out the timing of everything, and that's going to be the problem this week. The cool high pressure systems from Canada will compete with attempts by humid, warmer air making attempts to rain on us. 

Let's parse it out.

TODAY

The easy part of the forecast.  We'll have a gorgeous day. Mostly sunny skies and highs within a few degrees either side of 70. Cool breezes in northern Vermont will perhaps make you want to reach for the fleece jacket or hoodie, if you spend time in the shade.

SATURDAY

Very frequently now, we'll have new "coldest mornings of the year so far."  We have a shot at that around dawn tomorrow. We'll start with temperatures in the 40s, with plenty of low and mid 40s away from Lake Champlain.  A few of the coldest spots in the Northeast Kingdom will probably get into the upper 30s. 

Places near Lake Champlain will probably stay near 50. Dense fog will lace the river valleys. 

During the day, south winds will pick up, boosting temperatures well into the 70s. The winds could get a little gusty on and near Lake Champlain, so it might be a little tricky for boats on the lake. 

In southern Vermont, clouds will begin to increase as a weak but wet storm moves up the Eastern Seaboard. 

SUNDAY

It looks like the weak storm with its relatively heavy rain will pass south of Vermont, passing through southern New England. Clouds will cover Vermont. Meanwhile, a cold front will be coming at us from the west. 

Rain will overspread southern Vermont Saturday night and Sunday morning. There could be a half inch or more of rain in Bennington and Windham counties. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe storms in much of Vermont, suggesting there could be isolated instances of damaging winds. However, with all the clouds around, it's still doubtful we'll see any real thunderstorms. 

The cold front is most likely to produce rain in northern Vermont. In the end, northern and southern Vermont should get at least a decent wetting, and central Vermont might slip through between the two areas of rain and get little. 

This is iffy, so expect changes in the forecast. Bottom line: Not a really nice day, but how that will play out still has question marks. 

MONDAY

Another big bubble of high pressure looks like it will come in with mostly clear, cool weather. Monday will hopefully be a carbon copy of Saturday. We shall see.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

We'll be near the battleground between those cool, big high pressure systems from Canada, and the lingering hot, humid weather in the southern half of the U.S.  That torrid summer weather is really hanging tough, odd for September, but we should see little if any of it. 

Instead, we'll be prone to periods of rain as weather disturbances ride along the border between the cool autumn air to the north and the hot, humid air to the south. 

I'm not sure, but chances are much of the rain could pass to our south. But, if we get lucky, we could also see at least one soaking rain, which would be nice. No promises there, though 

It's possible the humid air could sneak in briefly, but if it does, it won't last long.  Updates to next week's forecasts will seem constant, and we might not know exactly what kind of weather we'll have until the day before the weather actually hits. 

Decent Vermont Overnight Rains Will Help With Dry Conditions, But Not Much New Rain In Forecast

A rose mallow bloom in St. Albans, Vermont seemed
happy with the overnight rain as it bloomed under
clearing skis this morning. 

As forecast, we had a nice rainy night across most of Vermont. 

It was too early as of this writing to have a complete listing of rainfall amounts, but it looks like everyone got a decent soaking except in the southeast corner of Vermont, all of which had been accurately forecast by the National Weather Service. 

Burlington received 0.74 inches, and my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected just about the same amount.  Montpelier 0.45; St. Johnsbury, 0.57. 

Rutland is the big winner so far at 1.13 inches. Springfield had 0.56 inches. Bennington had just 0.38 inches.  I don't have reports from far southeast Vermont, but it doesn't look like it rained much there. 

Keene, New Hampshire, just 18 miles east of Brattleboro, had only 0.06 inches. Central New England largely missed out on this. 

Let's go on to the forecasts

TODAY

We woke up this morning with the rain gone, the weather fronts having rushed off to the east. Humidity peaked overnight, but it was starting to decrease as dawn broke. It was still a little muggy during the morning rush hour, but the end to that is near. 

Brisk west winds, sort of shifting from southwest to northwest as the day goes by, will flush the humidity out. Under partly sunny skies, we should get into the 70s to near 80 southeast.

As one last weak weather front comes through, the clouds might tend to increase a bit toward late afternoon and evening, especially north, and one or two very light showers might pop up. But most of us will stay dry. 

FRIDAY

Before dawn,  a push of drier air will clear skies. That might yield to some patchy fog in the valleys as the sun rises. Typical for September.

We'll have a noticeably cooler day. with highs only reaching to within a few degrees either side of 70. Nothing unusual. for this time of year. We've seen much colder weather this time of year, now that we're well into September. (The record for the coldest high temperature in Burlington on Friday is 54 degrees in 1917.)

We'll see lots of sunshine and lighter winds than we'll see today, so it'll be a very nice day. Maybe go apple picking or something?

Clear, calm conditions will drop temperatures into the 40s in most places by dawn Saturday. 

SATURDAY

Another gorgeous day. Patchy valley fog will once again accompany the early chill, but afternoon temperatures will rise well into the 70s. 

NEXT WEEK

We'll see a changeable period. A fast west to east flow will keep ridiculous, persistent and in some cases record late season heat and humidity mostly to the southern half the United States. Cold fronts will race by, not lingering long enough to give us much rain. 

Occasionally, the heat and humidity will try to sneak into the North Country, but that will get beaten back by the cold fronts. Timing when we might get any showers is tricky in this pattern.  It doesn't look like all that much rain will come out of all this. 

Vermont Weather To Bounce Around, Cool To Muggy To Warm To Cool; Some Needed Rain Thrown In

After a little welcome morning rain in St. Albans, skies
at least partly cleared in the afternoon. We ended up
with a pleasant afternoon with a  pretty skies. 

As expected, the rain in northern Vermont faded quickly as it headed south, amounting to nothing south of Route 2.  

Right near the Canadian border, the rain was pretty decent - at or above a quarter inch. Derby Line had a half inch, Swanton just a smidge under a third of an inch. 

Here in St. Albans had 0.21 inches, and that reduced to 0.02 for a total in Burlington. Nothing in places like Montpelier and Rutland. 

After the morning clouds and cool air, it turned into a nice afternoon, especially in northern Vermont. 

The changes keep coming. 

This morning, temperatures in North Country, ranging from frost in northern Maine to muggy low 70s in western New York. In Vermont, 5 a.m. temperatures ranged from 43 in Lyndonville and 63 in Rutland. 

Since weather usually comes from the west, you know what's going to happen. The muggy air will win out. At least briefly. 

Here's what happens next:

TODAY

The clouds will increase, and south winds will increase and the humidity will increase. By this evening, the air will definitely have a muggy feel.

Rain will move in from the west. There could be some very light showers at any time today, but the rain will begin in earnest mid to late afternoon, spreading west to east. Before the rain gets here, we should get into the low and mid 70s, with sone upper 60s northeast.

It'll be a fairly steady light to at times to moderate rain at times, then tonight it will turn into a showery type thing, typical of what you'd expect in humid air. There could be some brief downpours and a rumble or two of thunder overnight. 

It'll be a somewhat sticky, uncomfortable night for sleeping, too. One of the last of this year. Maybe even the last, if we're lucky. 

If we get lucky, current forecasts will pan out and we'll get a needed wetting. Total rainfall looks to be around a half inch to an inch in central and northern Vermont. Maybe a little less than that in the immediate Champlain Valley, maybe a little more than that in the Green Mountains. The lower Connecticut River Valley, from around Springfield south, might only get 0.1 to 0.25 inches. 

As always with this type of event, there will be some local surprises with some spots getting more than forecast, and some places getting a little less. Luck of the draw, you understand. 

THURSDAY

Another changeable day. Abrupt, breezy changes are another sign of fall, even though tomorrow will not at all feel like autumn. 

Once we get into the fall, storm systems get stronger. Which means winds get stronger, temperature and humidity trends get stronger. And they happen over shorter periods of time. 

We start the day with the overnight rain gone already. It'll be a humid morning, and if you're exercising out in the early morning sun, you really will sweat it through. 

But winds will pick up from the west and eventually northwest. You'll feel the humidity gradually fade away during the day. By mid to late afternoon, it should actually start to feel refreshing amid those gusty breezes.

It will be warm, though. We'll get into the 70s, with a couple 80s poking out in the lower Connecticut Valley and maybe the Champlain Valley. All under at least partly sunny skies. 

FRIDAY

Back to traditional September, for a little while anyway. A cool, possibly foggy early morning will yield a generally sunny, cool afternoon. Temperatures should peak within a few degrees either side of 70 degrees. 

SATURDAY

Another nice one. It'll start chilly, with lows in the 40s. The usual September dense fog will shroud the river valleys. Sunshine will boost temperatures well into the 70s. 

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

Changeable, but it's a little hard to give a firm forecast this far in advance. It looks like Sunday could start to turn more humid. Perhaps after a break on Monday, the humidity could briefly return Tuesday. There's chances of showers amidst all this, but we don't know how much rain that might involve. 

Hurricanes Harassing Hawaii, California, East Coast Remarkably Storm-Free

Hurricane Lowell in the Pacific Ocean on Monday. Hawaii
is hidden beneath the clouds. 

For the second time within a month, a hurricane is threatening Hawaii. 

Hurricane Lowell has taken its northward turn, but it has been heading a little east of north. That means the Hawaiian Island will have more trouble than originally thought.  

The hurricanes expected path has shifted about 75 miles east since Sunday morning. Hurricane Lowell is expected to pass within 75 miles of Kauai as a category 2 storm tonight and tomorrow. 

It still looks like most of the Hawaiian Islands will be spared hurricane force winds, though a hurricane warning is in effect for the islands of Kauai and Nihau. Winds could gust to 85 mph later today and tonight, and 10 to 15 inches should drown the western islands. 

But torrential rains and tropical storm force winds could hit the entire island chain while the storm passes by. 

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Oahu, which includes the city of Honolulu. Kauai and Niihau could receive six to 10 inches of rain with local amounts of 14 inches. Normal September precipitation the islands is between two to four inches. So flooding is inevitable.   

The rest of the island chain can expect four to eight inches of rain. Which is more than enough to cause flooding and landslides. Especially after other recent storms on the island. 

The islands are also going to be battered by huge waves and storm surges.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency for the entire state. The Hawaii National Guard  has been activated. 

All this comes less than a month after Hurricane Lala sideswept Hawaii, causing enormous flood and mudslides especially on the Big Island. One spot on the Big Island had 43.54 inches of rain as the hurricane passed by just to south of Hawaii.

HURRICANE MARIE

Meanwhile, Hurricane Marie moved north to northwest out in the Pacific Ocean, far to the southwest of California. By today, it was over cooler water, and it had weakened to a tropical storm. 

Still, it was able to last longer than most hurricanes that get that far north, due to oddly warm water. The storm is throwing immense waves at southern California, 

Some waves on south facing California beaches reached ten feet high. Video showed waves smashing into seaside homes and condos, flooding garages and some lower floors. Parking lots were inundated. 

The National Hurricane Center said that dangerous surf conditions would continue today and tomorrow..

Moisture streaming off of Marie caused some unseasonable showers in southern California. It's also unusually humid in southern California because of the moisture from Marie, and because offshore waters are unusually warm. Heat advisories are in effect through Thursday as a result.

The humid air might also prompt tropical-like thunderstorms, which are exceptionally rare for southern California. 

 Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Ocean, which should be busy with tropical storms and/or hurricanes now, is still strangely quiet at the peak of the normal season. The National Hurricane Center says no tropical storms are expected over the next seven days.  

The First Windy, Rainy Autumn Storm About To Hit Vermont, Though Rainfall Might Not Be As Impressive As First Thought

Henry the Weather Dog enjoyed an unexpectedly 
sunny day yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont. A
sort of summer/autumn hybrid storm is expected
tonight, with some decent amounts of rain.

Once we get to September, the nature of storms starts to change. In the summer, it's mostly all scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

Sometimes the thunderstorms get a little too rambunctious with high winds and hail, but most of the time it's OK.  

September comes, and the nature of the storms start to change. They become more of a steady rain. Southern Vermont got a taste of that yesterday morning, as a disturbance zipped through with periods of rain. 

Many places south of Route 4 had between a quarter and a half inch of  rain. Under the cloud cover, temperatures stayed in the autumnal 60s in some parts of the south. 

Up north of Route 2, the sun made an unexpectedly strong showing, boosting temperatures into the upper 70s to score us up there a nice late summer day.

Let's get into what happens next:

TODAY

We'll get through the day mostly or completely dry, but it probably won't be all that bright and sunny. Oh,, sure we'll have a few breaks, especially this morning,   A few light reengage showers could arrive this afternoon, but don't count on any rain during the day. 

The upcoming storm isn't fully an autumn type system. It's sort of not quite summer, not quite autumn thing, so there's elements of both seasons in it.  You'll feel the humidity increase somewhat during the day today, a little like you'd expect ahead of an approaching summer cold front.

Winds will pick up today, too, the way they do ahead of an autumn storm. The winds won't be horrific by any stretch of the imagination, But south winds could gust to 30 mph in the northern Champlain Valley and higher elevations this afternoon and evening before the rain gets here. 

Today is not the day to take your boat or kayak out onto Lake Champlain.

The hybrid nature of the storm meaning areas to the south - not affecting us here in Vermont - will be rather hot and humid. With a risk of severe thunderstorms along a broad band from the southeastern Great Lakes down through the Mid-Atlantic states.

Already, early this morning, there were already severe thunderstorms moving southeastward off of Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario. As of shortly before 8 a.m. there was already a tornado warning in northwestern Pennsylvania. 

Which leads us into tonight:

TONIGHT IN VERMONT

The rain and thunderstorms will move toward Vermont this evening. The thunderstorms will become elevated, meaning a layer of stable air will hold near the ground. That will prevent severe thunderstorms here, but still allow for chances of lighting, thunder and bursts of heavier rain overnight. 

The downpours will be interspersed with a steadier light rain, again like you'd see in the autumn. 

Unfortunately, forecasts for rainfall amounts have been trending downward. We need the soaker, and this won't be as great a soaking as we'd hoped. But, anything is better than nothing. 

For now, we're expecting a half inch to an inch of rain across Vermont.  However, there's still a chance we'll get a little less than that, given the trends I've seen in the forecast. 

THURSDAY

Showers should continue into Thursday morning and maybe into the early afternoon. Thursday should also bring a brief interlude of humid weather.  Showers should end later in the day and with any luck we'll have some sun later in the day. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

A bit fall-like again. Our storm will slow down and spin around the Canadian Maritimes, as autumn storms often do. That means at least partly cloudy or mostly cloudy skies, with light showers, mostly over the mountains and Northeast Kingdom. 

It won't be all that chilly, with highs within a few degrees either side of 70 and lows in the 50s. The brief humidity from Thursday will have been solidly flushed out of here.

At this point, Sunday looks sunnier with continued seasonable high temperatures near or a little above 70.

Vermont Has One Shot At Drenching Rain Before A Likely Long Dry Spell

Hand it to the National Weather Service, whether radar this morning is exactly what was forecast. 

Weather radar this morning showed areas of rain moving
northwest to southeast across central and southern Vermont
The light blue shading on the northern edge is just 
clouds and very light rain evaporating before it hits the
ground.. Heavier, more drenching rain is forecast
to arrive Wednesday night. 

Areas of rain, most of it light but some of it moderate, to almost heavy, were racing northwest to southeast across southern and central Vermont this morning. 

Northern Vermont was missing out. Clouds were thick and threatening in northwest Vermont, close to the rain band, but thinner up in the Northeast Kingdom.. 

That state of affairs will continue to day, though the rain in southern Vermont will tend to taper off as the afternoon goes on

North of Route 2, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some sunshine breaks out this afternoon.

A stalled weather front to our south and west is responsible for today's rainy weather. 

Total rainfall through tonight looks like they'll amount to a quarter to a half inch in the southern half of Vermont with very little north. 

Scattered showers overnight tonight might deposit a paltry few hundredths of an inch of rain north of Route 2. Too bad, as the Northeast Kingdom needs the rain more than other parts of the state. 

Under the rain and clouds, highs in southern and central Vermont will only get into autumnal  highs in the 60s. Northern Vermont, outside the rain, could make it into the 70s. 

Our sole chance of soaking rains will come later Wednesday through the pre-dawn Thursday. 

WEDNESDAY

We need the rain, and it's still looking like we'll get a decent dose of rain Wednesday night. 

We'll likely get through the day Wednesday without much of rain. It'll be cloudy and vaguely humid, but any showers should be light and few and far between. Highs should get into the 70s, with some mid and upper 60s under areas with thicker clouds, especially east of the Green Mountains. 

n

A stronger area of low pressure will push that stalled front toward us. The system will fire up severe thunderstorms from western New York southeastward to New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. 

Up here in Vermont, thunderstorms should weaken and fade away before reaching us, but we do have a shot at some fairly heavy downpours. The rain will reach us in the evening and continue overnight. 

Over all, the National Weather Service expects a nice three quarters to an inch of rain for most spots, with over an inch in some areas of the Green Mountains. Unfortunately the far corners of the Northeast Kingdom might receive as little as a half inch of rain.

The rain will be steady enough, without too many short, sharp bursts of torrential downpours, that flooding looks pretty unlikely 

THURSDAY-SATURDAY

The storm system will amble on to the east, but not in any kind of hurry. This will keep cool-ish, sort of moist north winds blowing. That could set off some scattered showers, especially Thursday as a secondary weak cold front drifts through Vermont. 

This rain will not be heavy, and it will be scattered. Northern mountains have the best shot at seeing the showers.

Day by day, the showers will become lighter and more scattered so that by Sunday, there shield be few if any sprinkles left over. 

Daytime temperature should be pretty comfortable through the period as highs should reach the 70s, with some upper 60s on cooler, northern areas, especially the Northeast Kingdom. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

We'd better hope the above forecast for a soaking rain comes true, as we look to be in for a fairly long period of dry to mostly dry weather. 

Once we get into September, we often see big, dry high pressure systems hang out nearby.  The next chance of rain looks like it will be just scattered showers ahead of a cold front early Tuesday. 

A storm system riding along that front could bring heavier rain to the south. This is a long way off, so there's always a chance that storm could come closer to us than forecast, and give us some rain.  But we'll wait to worry about that in a few days. 

 

Long Stretch Of Vermont Warm Days End, Hopeful Signs Of Rain, Severe Weather Might Stay South Of Us

The spent blossoms of hostas glistened in the morning sun
this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. Rain chances ramp
up this week, but questions remain as to how much we'll see.. 

The signs of autumn continue to sneak in.

Clouds on Sunday in northern Vermont were a little thicker than expected and that held temperatures down into the 60s.

Burlington's high temperature was 69 degrees, ending an 83-day long stretch in which every single day had a high temperature of at least 70 degrees. 

That's the third longest such stretch on record. Only the summers of 1995 and 1901 had a longer such streak. (It was 87 such days in 1995, so we were very close. Had it been one degree warmer yesterday, Burlington probably would have broken the record, based on current forecasts. 

This hasn't been a particularly hot summer, but we've had long streaks of relatively warm weather. Earlier this summer, we had 21 consecutive day sin which the high temperature was 80 degrees or more. That was the fourth longest such stretch on record, 

Also, as of this morning, Burlington has had 88 consecutive days in which the low temperature was 50 or above. That's one of the longest on record, but it will be a stretch to what I think was the record - 106 such days in 2023.

Rainfall yesterday, as expected was pretty light. Two bursts of rain here in St. Albans, one at around 1 p.m. and another around 8:30 in the evening, left us with 0.38 inches of rain. Some rain fell in the Northeast Kingdom, where precipitation is really needed, but that was no drought buster. Burlington only managed 0.02 inches of rain. 

Southern Vermont, as expected, pretty much missed out on any rain. 

Enough of the past, let's look ahead. Rain is eventually in the forecast, but I do worry the Northeast Kingdom might miss out on some of it. 

TODAY

The front that came through last night is now stalled to our south and west 

It's going to create a lot of trouble from western New York to New Jersey over the next few days, but not so much here in Vermont.

We had a lot of dense morning fog this morning, but it was burning off pretty quickly as I wrote this around 9 a.m. today. It'll be a nice one, though high clouds will start to filter in this afternoon, especially south and west of Interstate 89. With low humidity and highs in the 70s, we shouldn't be bummed if the sun dims a bit this afternoon.

TUESDAY

A weird one. Southwest Vermont looks like it will barely escape the risk of super heavy rains and severe thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, which really needs the rain, will miss out. 

A nasty little weather disturbance will ride southeastward along that stalled front I talked about above. That disturbance will hurl batches of torrential rain and severe thunderstorms from western New York to the New Jersey and maybe southern New England. 

Southwest Vermont will be on the fringe of this. Places like Bennington could get a good half inch or more of rain out of this. More if the disturbance comes a little closer. Amounts will taper off as you had north and east such that the Northeast Kingdom will probably see no rain. 

Central Vermont will see just light showers. Highs will be in the 70s, with maybe some upper 60s south under the thicker clouds and rain

WEDNESDAY

Things start to get a litle more interesting here. A storm system will come at us, pushing that stalled front at us as it does so. 

All this will push some heavier rain through Vermont, especially in the afternoon and evening, as it looks now.   We're still lacking details on how heavy the rain will be, where any thunderstorms might set up, and whether they will be any flooding risk

For now, things look pretty tame in Vermont. Maybe not so tame a little south of here, but that's their problem. 

Parts of southern Vermont could easily see two inches of rain out of this system, so that will be the area to really keep an eye on. A broad band centered on Route 4 would see more than an inch.  The rest of the state would get a half inch to an inch. Decent, but not boffo. 

As always, I expect these totals will be adjusted up or down a bit before we get to Wednesday. 

Severe thunderstorms looks like they'll stay to our south, probably south of a Rochester, New York to NYC line. The Mid-Atlantic states are in for it, as they could see severe weather and flash floods daily Tuesday through Friday. 

THURSDAY-SATURDAY

The storm will be to our east by then, but sort of linger, aide by a pool of cool air overhead. That keeps the risk of clouds and showers going. The showers will be light, and large parts of the day will be dry. Thursday has the highest risk of showers. Friday looks like it will have long dry periods in between scattered showers, and Saturday looks like the showers will be few and far between.

Again, this is a peek a few days into the future, so expect adjustments. 

Overall. this is a hopeful week to at least temporarily stall a potentially building drought in Vermont. Extended forecasts beyond Saturday suggest a week or two of below normal precipitation, so that would be a bummer. 

But, at least things aren't shaping up to be nearly as bad as last year's drought.

 

Hint Of Autumn In Vermont. Next Up: Upcoming Rain Not As Big A Soaker As Previously Hoped

Yesterday was the first day this season that really felt like autumn was coming. 

Expected rainfall through Monday night. Decent rains
are forecast in the Northeast Kingdom, with lesser 
amounts south. Severe weather is unlikely, we hope!

Thanks in part to extra clouds during part of the day, and also some steady north winds, Saturday was a little cooler than forecast. In Burlington, we had the coolest average temperature since June 7. The temperature barely made it to 70 degrees in Montpelier and Newport. 

At dawn today, it was in the 40s statewide, except for a few low 50s near Lake Champlain. It will get a little warmer this week, but full summertime heat looks fleeting, at least for now. Let's get into it.

TODAY

There were already high clouds mixed with some wildfire smoke aloft, overhead early this morning in northern Vermont, while southern Vermont remained clear. I think northern Vermont might tend to temporarily clear out, and then clouds, and maybe a little smoke aloft will start to return this afternoon. 

The smoke is not near the surface,  so there won't be any air quality problems. Rainfall has been postponed again, so you'll have a dry day for outdoor activities. It will also be a little warmer than yesterday, as we get into the  upper 70s, give or take.

TONIGHT

It's still going to rain, later tonight, but not as much as we first hoped. There could still be some decent rains in the Northeast Kingdom, which is good because they need the rain more than other parts of the state. Up there, current forecasts give them a half to an inch of rain. 

The rest of us are in line for a tenth to a half inch of rain tonight through Monday. So nothing huge, but still, pretty decent. The northern Champlain Valley should have a little more than in southern Vermont. 

MONDAY

The rain won't be over as a cold front slowly makes its way toward Vermont.  It'll be a humid Monday quite a switch from the last few days. Dew points could get as high as 70s degrees, which is oppressive as hell.

Showers could break out at any time, most likely in the afternoon. There could be some thunderstorms, too, especially in western Vermont south of Burlington, as it looks now.  Meteorologists don't think we face more severe storms, but we'll have to watch western Vermont for an isolated strong storm or two. 

TUESDAY

A decent day. Sunshine, with lower humidity. Much better than Monday will be, but not rock bottom humidity like we expect on Monday.  Highs should get up to within a few degrees either side of 80.

REST OF WEEK

Another front should arrive Wednesday and Wednesday evening with showers and possible thunderstorms. So far, I'm not too impressed by this weather system, but we'll see how it plays out. We might  have some showers lingering into Thursday, but again, no big deal. 

Another round of nice late summer weather should return by late in the week. But remember, forecasts several days out are subject to big time revisions. Don't start planning your outdoor events for next weekend just yet.  

Expected Overnight Rain Mostly Misses Vermont, Unfortunately. Hit And Miss Stuff Today

Late season day lilies "Country Club" variety, blooms
in St. Albans, Vermont this morning. Most of the
predicted rain avoided us, but there are some chances
of rain today, but it will be hit and miss

  Streaks of heavier rain that swept through New York and New England unfortunately mostly missed Vermont. Which is too bad, because many gardens and crops could have used a good drink.  

A few places got decent rain. Rutland had 0.56 inches through 8 a.m.  Other areas were pathetic. Montpelier has 0.15 inches. Bennington, 0.13 inches, Burlington a mere 0.05 inches. 

Southern and eastern New England grabbed the moisture. Flash flood warnings were up in parts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

So, will it rain today? Maybe, in some places. Let's get into it.

TODAY

We still have shots at getting some rain today, but it will be hit and miss. I'm hoping for more hits than miss. 

The moisture for the rain is certainly there. I'm sure you've noticed the continued humidity out there. A weak cold front is arriving today.  The front is sort of coming through in pieces, as is typical weak summer cold fronts.

That'll generate showers and storms that will cross the state from west to east today. In patches and bunches. There's a chance a couple of the storms could be fairly strong here and there. We'll end up with a patchwork of towns and cities that ended up getting a nice drink of water from the skies, while people in other towns watch the dark clouds bypass them. 

They'll be sweating as they do so as the humidity will bypass them, though the air will start to freshen up a little toward evening as the cold front staggers off into eastern New England.  The departure of that cold front means the showers and thunderstorms should be out of Vermont by late afternoon.

A trailing disturbance will probably set off some light showers this evening over northern Vermont, but they won't amount to much. 

TUESDAY

We'll have a brief break from the humidity so enjoy it, as it will be a delightful summer day squeezed in between days of mugginess. It'll be sunny, and highs will get into the 80s. So enjoy the lake, enjoy some hikes, or whatever else you're doing. 

WEDNESDAY

Actually, not bad. The humidity will creep up, but it won't get out of control. The sunshine will continue and highs will go well into the 80s. 

THURSDAY - SUNDAY

A strong Bermuda High off the East Coast still looks like it will dominate our weather. That'll pump the very warm, humid air our way. Even though it will be oppressive, temperatures will struggle to reach 90 degrees. High humidity will absorb the sun's heat, preventing extreme heat. But it won't matter, it'll be uncomfortable as hell.

We'll also have an ever-present chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best shot at seeing thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. They will be hit and miss, so we'll see rainfall winners and losers, as usual. 

Little weather disturbances riding along the muggy southwest flow will provide bursts of more numerous showers and storms, but it's hard to tell this far in advance. 

It's summer. We get this kind of weather, Soon enough we'll be complaining about the cold. Embrace the humidity. 

Flood Concerns Stay Off To Vermont's West As We Stay Warm. Humid. Wet Early Monday

Later summer garden in St. Albans, Vermont this 
morning. The gardens should get a decent drink of
water tonight and tomorrow from a batch of 
relatively heavy showers in the forecast

As expected, we're in a warm, humid regime here in Vermont with little sign of relief on the way. 

Forecasts have settled on the heaviest rain today and tonight in western and northern New York and in Ontario. There, flood watches are in effect. 

For Vermont, we should eke out a decent day, with clouds and sun, and a chance of a late day shower or garden-variety thunderstorm, especially northwest. Many of us will stay dry. Highs should reach the 80s this afternoon, and you'll continue to feel that humidity build. 

TONIGHT/MONDAY

Most of the rain Vermont gets will hold off until later tonight and the first half of Monday. This will more of a Goldilocks rainfall - heavy enough to give gardens and crops a good drink, light enough to prevent any flooding. 

NOAA has a slight risk of flash floods level two out of four, in the extreme northern 'Adirondacks and along New York's Canadian border. They've put Vermont in a marginal risk, level one out of four for flash floods in case a local downpour causes trouble. But that risk really looks pretty low.

We'll see some downpours and embedded rumbles of thunder within this but nothing particularly scary. There is a marginal - level one out of five risk of severe storms in the southeastern two thirds of Vermont, and much of the rest of New England, but this won't be a widespread outbreak of bad weather. 

The rain and downpours will tend to taper off as we go through the afternoon and evening. A little sun might come out as well.

TUESDAY

The pick of the week if you have outdoor plans. The humidity should temporarily dip to somewhat comfortable levels, with dew points in the low 60s. That's considered just slightly sticky but not oppressive. Sunshine should boost temperatures into the 80s.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY

We have a long spell of warm, humid air with a daily risk of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms every day. We'll be sandwiched between a strong Bermuda High off the East Coast and a dip in the jet stream well to our west.  So, little disturbances in that humid southwesterly flow of air will keep those chances of thunderstorms going.

We're into August now, so at least in some years, the change in seasons begins to take the edge out of the constant humid weather. There are signs that we could have a sort of autumnal spell by mid-month. No promises, but there's a chance. 

Dog Days Of Summer Have Arrived In Vermont, Downpours Thrown In Sunday/Monday Too

A bumblebee enjoys a rose bloom this morning in 
St. Albans, Vermont amid our spell of humid air. Sticky
days will continue for at least a week along with
risks of showers and storms. 

It hasn't exactly been hot recently, but the air has felt rather sticky, here in Vermont and that state of affairs will continue for quite awhile. 

It's the dog days of summer, the nearly annual spell in which we're stuck in a long period of humid, warm air, with occasional spikes to a hot day or two mixed with rainy, thundery periods as well.

We're going to sweat it out in moderately warm air, and humidity that's moderately high until Sunday, when it will get even worse.Most of us will stay rain-fee under Sunday, when the weather forecast begins to turn iffy. Let's get into the details:   

TODAY

Partly sunny with that humidity is the bottom line.  Highs should get into the low 80s.

 noticed a couple showers early today in Addison and Rutland counties. That hints at enough instability in the air to trigger maybe an isolated shower or storm today mostly over the mountains. The vast majority of us will stay dry. though, and whatever does form shouldn't be scary. Just garden variety stuff.  

SATURDAY

Rinse and repeat. But it will be just a bit warmer as temperatures rise well into the 80s. 

SUNDAY

Here's where it gets questionable. South winds, which you'll especially notice in the Champlain Valley, will increase ahead of the next weather system. Those wind  will pump even more humid air our way, so Sunday will feel even more oppressive.

As it stands now, it looks like some showers and storms could develop in the afternoon and evening, especially in the northwestern half of the state. We still have questions on the timing and intensity of this thing, and those questions deepen Sunday night and Monday

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

It seems like the incoming front and weather disturbance will want to slow down near New England. We're pretty sure we'll see some heavy downpours around, but we don't know how long they'll last or just how heavy they'll be in any particular spot. 

The computer models have been windshield wipering between an ominous forecast of heavy rain lingering over the region for a long time, or downpours staying long enough to give us a harmless, beneficial soaking without a real risk of flooding. 

This morning's runs of computer forecast don't look all that ominous, but there's still a risk of locally heavy rain. And other model runs today might paint yet a different picture. 

In this morning's forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said they're hoping for  better, more concise guidance tomorrow on what might happen with this system. By then, well have better upper air sampling of how things are shaping. So stay tuned.  

BEYOND MONDAY

Whatever this system doesn't, it won't be one of those nice summer cold fronts that flush out the humidity for a few days. Instead it will stay warm, and probably get warmer. Temperatures might hold in the 70s amid steamy air Monday if there's a lot of clouds and rain. 

If we're lucky, it could briefly turn slightly less humid next Tuesday, but building warmth and humidity quickly return. It looks like a long stretch of very warm, humid weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week. 

Vermont Cool Spell Ends Long 80 Degree Spell; No Real Heat For Awhile

Midsummer flowers in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
It's the peak of summer, but we're having an inverted
"January thaw."  That's a July cool spell that tells
us summer will eventually end. 

 We're in the midst of the summer version of the Vermont "January thaw."

Many years, often around the third week of January, we have a warm spell that tells us winter will eventually end. Not yet, it'll be awhile, but spring will come. 

Right now, we're in the July version of that  It happens during warmer summers, like this one has been so far. We get a cool spell in mid to late July.  It's an autumn-like sign that summer will eventually end. Not right away. There's plenty of summer left to go. But for now, there's hints of September. 

Saturday, the high temperature in Burlington reached only 72 degrees. That ended a streak of 21 consecutive days in which the temperature reached at least 80 degrees. The streak is the fourth longest 80 degree string on record in Burlington. 

We were supposed to get to 80 degrees or more yesterday, but a burst of warm, humid air had trouble making it as far as northern New England. That fact, and another burst of wildfire smoke, helped keep us cool.

The situation did rescue us from any severe weather. It all stayed well to our west and south. There's dozens of thunderstorm damage reports from western New York to North Carolina. 

Rainfall was mostly modest in Vermont, which is a bummer, since many of us could use the rain. 

REST OF TODAY

The cool weather continues today, though it is much nicer than it was Saturday.  The smoke is gone for now, and a pleasant northwest breeze is blowing. Today's the weekend day to enjoy. Our hints of autumn continuing. Highs will only top out in the 70s - gorgeous, but cool for the peak of summer. 

Tonight will probably be the coolest we've seen since the second week of June. That's not saying much. Most of us we'll get into the low and mid 50s, with some 40s in the colder hollows. Nothing unusual for July. 

THIS WEEK

Tomorrow will be another nice day, though some clouds will come in this afternoon. Highs will be seasonable, topping out within a few degrees either side of 80 degrees. 

The next storm system, coming through Tuesday through Wednesday, but it looks pretty tame. More tame that I thought a few days ago. Unless there's a major change in the outlook, it appears severe weather will stay well to Vermont's south and west.

Some earlier forecasts suggested the storm could slow down or stall near us, which would put us at risk for heavy rain or even flooding. Now, that idea looks highly doubtful. The warm fronts and cold fronts and troughs and lines of showers should wander through, not in a hurry, but not dawdling either. 

That means we might, if we're lucky, receive a decent amount of rain. 

It'll temporarily turn more humid during the rainy spell, but not wildly so. And it will turn drier again later in the week. Wildfire smoke is still lurking around central North America, but it's thinning somewhat. Rain has temporarily cooled the big Ontario wildfires a bit. Still, it might get a little smoky again midweek. 

After that, we don't see any signs of new heat waves for at least 10 days. It'll be warm enough, but not intensely so. Most of the heat will stay in the western and central United States.

But then there's August. Who knows whether we'll have more heat waves them. Stay tuned! 

Smoke Annoying Vermont, And Much Of Northern U.S. Storms/Rain Lurk In New England Too

A bit of another severe risk. Level 2 out of 5 risk of
damaging winds in the Northeast Kingdom and in
northern New Hampshire and half of Maine.
Northwest and central Vermont are at a level 1
out of  5 risk. This won't be as serious as the
destructive microbursts in south central
Vermont early yesterday morning. 

The smoke is back, especially in southern Vermont. Big wildfires in Ontario and northern Minnesota is causing most of the trouble. 

Smoke will be a problem for the rest of the summer, probably. Rain might tamp down the Ontario fires Friday and Friday night, and that might temporarily help. 

All this pollution makes the overall weather forecast a little harder, both for understanding when the smoke will be thickest and how that will affect overall weather. 

Later yesterday, the thick smoke got suppressed south to near the Massachusetts border and points south and west. Northern Vermont got a temporary break. 

TODAY

Unfortunately, satellite imagery was down this morning so I don't have a full picture of what's going on with the smoke. Just a general idea.

However, we know the smoke moved back north overnight, but it's still thickest in southern Vermont. An air quality alert is in effect until 11 p.m. tonight for all of Vermont except the far north. It's part of a broad air quality alert zone extending from Minnesota to Massachusetts. 

Another cold front is going to temporarily squash the smoke southward this afternoon. The cold front has already set off some needed showers in northwest Vermont, an area that could use some rain  Unfortunately, there is a risk of a few strong or even severe storms today. 

It's been a stormy summer. 

The weather set up is similar to Tuesday, when we were expecting a big outbreak of severe storms. The main difference is that it's much less humid than it was on Tuesday. So there's less potential fuel for storms

This time, the smoke is somewhat lighter in northern Vermont. Despite the lower humidity, the lack of smoke means there could be a few strong or borderline severe storms. Especially as a new cold front accompanied by a weather disturbance approaches us from Quebec.

This will not be a big storm outbreak.  Some of us won't see any showers or storms at all. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has much of Vermont under a marginal risk of severe storms, a level one out of five risk. 

The Northeast Kingdom, northern New Hampshire and southern Maine have a higher risk, a level two out of five alert level for severe storms. Far southern Vermont is outside the risk zone. 

Again, this won't be anything as serious as those destructive microbursts that hit towns like Shoreham, Whiting, the north end of Lake Bomoseen, Shrewsbury, Windsor and other spots late Tuesday and early Wednesday.  

Just keep an eye to the sky and get into a building if a storm is approaching. A couple spots could have some damaging wind gusts. The storms should be around early to mid afternoon north, and mid to late afternoon south. Though southern Vermont should see few if any showers and storms 

The good news is the cold front will temporarily disperse the smoke later today, especially north. 

FRIDAY

Should be a nice day. After a comfortable night tonight, we should have a sunshine, low humidity with highs in the70s to low 80s. It looks like we should still have some wildfire smoke hanging around. It's hard to say for sure, but current forecasts suggest the smoke might be worse south and west of Interstate 89.

WEEKEND

Saturday looks rather rainy. Which is good, as several places in Vermont have been cheated as thunderstorms have missed them this month. Northwest Vermont seems particularly dry. The first half of July in Burlington had 1.37 inches less rain than normal.  

You might be able to squeeze in some outdoor activity during the first half of Saturday, since the bulk of the rain should come through later in the afternoon and evening. Early forecasts call for an inch of rain in northern Vermont, with a little less than that across the south.  

It looks like Sunday will clear up in the afternoon. It also looks like it might be the coolest day we've had since maybe the third week in June. Highs should stay mainly in the 70s.

The weather pattern has changed. No promises, but it appears the second half of July might be cooler than the first half of the month.