Rare Tornado Watch In Effect For Vermont/New York Today: High Winds, Then Severe Storms, Some Twisters Possible

UPDATE: 10:30 a.m.

Here's a weather map you don't see 
every day. The greatest chances of
tornadoes today, according to NOAA
are along the Gulf Coast and in 
Vermont (brown shading). 
Still, the risk of a twister is very low
and if severe storms develop today
the trouble would probably come
from intense straight line winds

A rare tornado watch is in effect for Vermont and much of New York.

The tornado watch remains in effect until 3 p.m. It actually covers all of Vermont and most of New York State.'

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, strong winds aloft caused by that intense winter like storm will increase the risk of intense winds with the storms, 

Because winds are changing direction in different levels of the atmosphere, some storms could start to rotate, which helps explain why there could be some brief tornadoes in New York or Vermont. 

Already, one tornado warning has been issued in western New York and there are a bunch of severe thunderstorm warnings out there. 

Another unusual thing is the timing. Most severe storm outbreaks peak in the late afternoon and evening, But this storm's cold front is coining earlier. 

And the atmospheric dynamics are so great that severe thunderstorms and even isolated tornadoes can develop in the late morning and early afternoon.

The main threat is strong straight line winds from the storms, by the way. The chances of a tornado are still low, but obviously there. 

Aside from the severe weather threat, winds are increasing in Vermont ahead of the storms as of 10 a.m so scattered  power outages are likely to develop over the next few hours. Even before any thunderstorms get here. 

Definitely be weather aware today and heed any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. There's a chance some of these storms might end up being more intense than our typical summer windbags, 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

So far, our storm is playing out as expected here in Vermont, but some surprises might still be in store.

Whatever happens, this will be one of Vermont's nastiest weather days of the summer. 

 A swath of rain, some of it moderate to heavy, was moving through the Green Mountain State as of 8:30 a.m.  Judging from weather radar, the steady rain will soon turn showery, with frequent downpours mixed with brief breaks. 

WIND

The showers will tend to diminish for a relatively brief period later this morning. That's when the wind will really kick in. 

The wind advisory for gusts to 40 to 55 mph is still in effect. It covers all of Vermont except the Connecticut River Valley south of roughly Wells River. 

We'll see some power outages blossom here and there as some trees give up the ghost with the onslaught of winds. 

As I keep saying, winds of that magnitude almost never happen in the summer. When we get this type of storm in the winter, when they're more common,  the wind passes pretty easily through bare branches so it's not as much of a problem. 

Leafed out trees are heavier, and the leaves act as little sails to tug at the trees. In many places, the soil has gotten pretty wet, making it easier to uproot trees when they tilt in the wind. 

This won't exactly be a huge destructive storm like a hurricane, but we'll lose a few trees and branches. 

Strongest winds still look like they'll hit the northern Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Lake Champlain should be pretty wild with two to four foot waves, maybe even a bit higher than that on the broad lake during the worst of the wind. 

STORMS

The thunderstorm outlook for this afternoon is still challenging. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 out of 5 alert - for severe storms today. 

And here's a new twist. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the two places in the nation with the highest chances of tornadoes today are parts of the Gulf Coast, and Vermont (along with eastern New York and western New Hampshire).

Granted, it's still a very low chance, but not quite as low as we usually see during severe storm risk days.  Usually, when I mention a very low risk of  tornado, it means a 2 percent chance of seeing a twister with 25 miles of your location.

This time, it's a 5 percent chance of seeing a tornado with 25 miles of your location. Those are still low odds, but not as low as it could be. 

The SPC says some low top rotating supercells could get going  in our atmosphere today. But the biggest threat is some storms grabbing some of the odd, high speed air flowing a few thousand feet overhead and bringing those winds to the surface in a few locations. 

If storms develop this afternoon, they'll move rapidly. Storm intensity will probably change quickly, one way or the other, as well. That means you'll get little or no advance warning when they approach.  If you see dark clouds to the west, it'll be best if you get inside a sturdy building quickly, even if there is no severe storm warning in effect at that moment. 

Severe storms in Vermont are NOT a foregone conclusion, however. Maybe the winds aloft could be actually too strong for big thunderstorms to develop. Especially since this morning's rain and a warm layer of air high up in the atmosphere might prevent tall thunderstorms clouds from forming. 

But I wouldn't relax about it. I know we didn't get the predicted severe weather this past Sunday. But this is a completely different weather setup than we had on Sunday, so the outcome on what might happen will also be completely different. 

If we don't get any severe storms, great! But be prepared, because a few towns - not all of us but a fe towns - could really get nailed with nasty, damaging thunderstorm winds. 

The severe storm threat should be over by this evening

FLOODING

Despite the bursts of heavy rain, I'm not too concerned about any flooding. Everything is just moving along too fast. Downpours won't linger over one area too long. Even if we get severe thunderstorms, they will produce torrential downpours that won't last long 

Still, there's a chance that a couple spots could get such a gully washer that a gravel road or two could see damage. The risk is quite low, but there. I notice there is a flood watch in northern New Hampshire. Strong winds hitting the White Mountains is causing the air flow to rise violently, which could set off some nasty downpours there. 

BEYOND TODAY

I won't get into much detail here, because we have our hands full with today. Tomorrow will actually be OK, with some sun, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers or maybe a garden variety thunderstorm. It'll still be quite breezy, but not downright windy like today. Highs will get well into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday look worse, with showers and garden variety thunderstorms  likely, especially north. It'll be cool, too, with highs Saturday in the 60s to low 70s and readings just a couple degrees higher Sunday. 

Valleys in southern Vermont will probably eek out some decent weather over the weekend with a lower chance of showers and more breaks of sun.

A risk of rain and showers will continue into next week, but temperatures will moderate to near normal late June levels by the middle of the week. We hope. 

Stormy Vermont Weather Today To Bring Risk Of Damaging Winds, Local Flash Floods

Areas in yellow have the highest chance of 
seeing at least scattered severe thunderstorms
today. You see Vermont is included. 

 Yesterday was as perfect a summer day you can get in Vermont. The skies were blue and flecked with a few pretty puffy clouds. There was no haze, so the Green Mountains glimmered in their proper color. The air was quite warm, the humidity was gone, and a light breeze made it all feel perfect.  

Today, not so much. 

That strong cold front we've been talking about is threatening us with some really bad weather today. For most of us, it will be merely unpleasant, loud and at times dramatic. For a small minority of us, it could actually be dangerous. 

The two threats today are severe thunderstorms and local flash flooding. There is already a flood watch in effect for the northern half of Vermont today into early Monday. 

Who gets slammed with the worst weather today is mostly the luck of the draw. It depends on where the worst storms set up, and where the heaviest downpours fall.

But it's not entirely a guessing game. We do have a broad idea what will happen. But thunderstorms develop pretty quickly, so the exact spot that gets in trouble becomes clear often only minutes before the actual trouble arrives.  

This is the kind of day that you'll maybe want to rethink outdoor plans like hiking in the mountains or boating across Lake Champlain or a picnic on that gorgeous meadow,. 

You'll also want a way to receive warnings from the National Weather Service. I do think a few severe thunderstorm warnings will go out today. And there might well be a flash floor warning or two, especially north. 

 Severe Storms 

Areas in green shading have a very low, but not zero
chance of seeing a tornado today. Note that 
includes northern Vermont. 

On Friday, we didn't have much in the way of severe thunderstorms because the upper winds weren't very strong. That's not the issue today. Those winds high above us will be strong this afternoon and evening, and they will change direction with height. Storms could bring those high winds down on us. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center early this morning updated their outlook. All of Vermont is in a slight risk zone of severe storms . That's a level two out of five risk level.  Actually a huge area is under that slight risk zone, from the western half of New England, as far west as Ohio, and all the way down the East Coast as far as northern Georgia. 

In all these areas, including Vermont, the biggest hazard  from this set up is strong, damaging straight line winds. 

However, in many areas under this risk zone, there's a risk of a brief tornado. That little twister risk includes Vermont north of Route 4 and northern New York, New Hampshire and Maine. 

The risk of a tornado is very, very low, but not zero. 

The best chance for severe storms is from about noon to 6 p.m. north, possibly lasting a little longer than that central and south. 

Flash Flooding

Weather radar at 10 a.m. showed areas of heavy rain
already starting to move toward far northern Vermont.
Repeated rounds of storms and downpours today 
and tonight could lead to some flash flooding, 

Don't let  today's early morning low humidity fool you, a big surge of moisture is coming in, an is about to interact with that slow moving cold front coming at us from the northwest. 

This will be like the thunderstorm risk: Most places won't have a flood, but there's at least a chance some places will, Especially north of Route 2, and most especially near the Canadian border. 

One area of rain, with a few embedded downpours, seemed to be moving into far northern Vermont as of 9:30 a.m. which could be the start of the soaking up there. 

Waves of thunderstorms and torrential showers should sweep across Vermont today and the first half of tonight, and that's especially true in the north. 

Some areas in northern parts of the sate could see more than 2.5 inches of rain out of this, though most places there will get a little over an inch. 

Individual showers and storms will be moving quite fast. That means just one or two storms moving over the same area won't linger long enough to produce flooding rains. But today,   numerous storms look like they will follow the same path, possibly dumping way too much water for brooks, creeks, ditches and culverts to handle. 

It looks like the latest data supports the idea of a flood risk. Early this morning, northern Maine was under a flood watch. By 8:43, a flood watch went up for northern New Hampshire. Then, at 9:23 a.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued that flood watch for northern Vermont. 

Bottom line: Today is one of those annoying days where we'll be dodging bad and sometimes dangerous weather. Unfortunately, a very few of us might be picked by Ma Nature to end up picking up pieces and filing insurance claims. 

Not just here, but up and down the East Coast. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The good news, I suppose, is that this cold front will usher in some delightful weather tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Highs both days will be in the 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Another strong storm for this time of year possibly looms for this Thursday, but let's worry about today and get to that one later. 

Near Record Highs, Strong Thunderstorms In Vermont Today

A large part of the eastern U.S., including
most of Vermont, is under a level 2
slight risk of severe thunderstorms today. 
Level 2 out of 5 risk levels is 
in the yellow shaded areas. 

Heat and storms is the story today, as our hot weather peaks and a what is technically considered a cold front lurks to our west today.
 

We got a preview yesterday as the heat over-performed in at least some places. 

The heat over-performed a bit on Thursday, Burlington reached 91 degrees. It was a little sunnier than expected during the afternoon, which helped raise the temperatures a bit. .

Burlington tied the record for lowest high for the date Thursday, with a muggy low of 71 degrees. 

Storms were also thankfully more lackluster than expected on Thursday. 

A few small storms popped up here and there, but didn't amount to much, just some local downpours in a handful of spots. Then we get into today, which should be dreadful 

TODAY

Stormy and hot and humid is the word. Definitely a busy day. Most of us should get through much of the day without storms. They should become a problem later in the day.

Heat

The low temperature -  if you can call it that - this morning was 73 degrees in Burlington. If that holds through midnight, which is iffy, we'll have another record high "low" temperature for the date. 

That sets the stage or record highs, which we have a good shot at  being tied or broken. 

 The expected high temperature in Burlington is 95 or 96 degrees. The record high for today is 94 set in 2017. In Montpelier, the expected high today is 93 04 94 or so.  The record high there today is 88 degrees.

St. Johnsbury probably won't break their record high, but they should get close.  The record high there is 94 degrees, and the forecast high is in the low 90s.  In southeast Vermont, in the lower Connecticut River Valley, highs today are expected to be in the 93 to 96 degree range. 

Needless to say, heat advisories are in effect for low elevations in western and southeast Vermont. Other parts of the state don't quite it the criteria for a heat advisory, but it will be close.  It will be a dangerous day for vigorous outdoor activity. Stay in the shade if you can, drink plenty of fluids,  and stay in the air conditioning if at all possible.  

Today would be a great day to "kidnap" your elderly neighbor, relative or friend who does not have air conditioning in their house. Take them to a cool movie, or a restaurant with drafty air conditioning. They'll need it. 

Storms

We started this morning with a few showers and downpours across eastern Vermont, but that's not the main show. 

Things should begin to fire up  this afternoon.  The heat and humidity puts us on a hair trigger for fast developing storms.  It doesn't take much to set off some instant potentially strong thunderstorms in this environment.  

However, the actual triggers for storms today are  somewhat lacking. You need strong winds aloft that change direction with elevation to really get a severe weather outbreak going. 

We're sort of missing  the strong upper winds. Also, the "cold front" is coming through basically in pieces later today and tonight, so there's no big change of air. And it's barely cooler behind the front. 

All that is working against severe weather. But not preventing it. 

The models still disagree as of this morning about how many storms will form, and how bad they'll be, ad how they'll behave.  Something called the HRRR (a rapid refresh model that's updated every hour) has a fair number of storms, some possibly severe entering western Vermont by mid-afternoon. Other models wait until early evening to bring on the storms.  

The American computer model seems to think today will turn into something of a yawner. I'm not buying the American model, really. (The American model doesn't provide as much detail as some of the others). Other models bring in some potential strong storms, but not as aggressively as the HRRR. Pick your poison. 

I think the end result is a few of us will end up blasted by strong to severe storms. Many of us will at least hear thunder and get some rain, maybe a downpour.  Some towns will get nothing at all. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center pretty much has nearly all of Vermont in a slight risk for severe storms. That's a level 2 out of 5 risk. It means scattered severe storms are a good bet. Far eastern Vermont as of early this morning was in a level 1 marginal risk of isolated severe storms. 

This risk zone might be updated or changed later this morning. The key is the upper level winds. If they're even more lame than forecast, the risk of bad storms goes down. .If those winds increase, so does the risk of wild storms. Stay tuned on that as well. 

As always, we don't know who gets the severe storms until right before it happens. Between the heat, humidity and the storm risk, jettison your hiking plans.  Making today more complicated, the lack of high winds aloft means a severe storm could develop in a snap, then choke itself off quickly, only to be replaced by another strong storm not all that far away. 

Have a way to receive severe storm warnings. And, to be Captain Obvious once again, if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, it's time to get off the water, off the beach, out of the garden and head indoors.

Any storms that do form could have really torrential downpours. That could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal risk zone for such floods. The vast majority of us will be fine, but again, you'll won't know where the damaging gullywashers will hit until they actually arrive.  

I'd say a storm could pop off anytime after about noon, but the best chances are from about 3 to 8 p.m. or so. 

WEEKEND

We're calling it a "cold front" coming through later Friday but that's pretty highfalutin way of describing the lame thing that's actually arriving. Sure, it will fire up some storms today, as mentioned. But when it's oppressively steamy out there, it doesn't take much to get storms going. 

The truth of the matter is it won't really be "colder" behind our cold front. The temperature will drop a few degrees, but it will stay awfully warm. It will be less humid, but not exactly bone-dry, either. 

Some details:

Saturday: 

Very warm and sunny, a perfect summer day in Vermont. Highs should get up into the mid and upper 80s, so it should be a nice beach or swimming hole day. A few puffy clouds might decorate the skies, making it all the more scenic . 

Sunday

Very warm to hot again. A few places in the lower Connecticut Valley and Champlain Valley could reach 90 degrees again. But a cold front will be approaching. A real one this time. It looks like the front will stir up a bunch of shower and thunderstorms again during the afternoon. We're waiting on more information, but for now, there's a chance of a few severe storms too. 

In fact, there might be a better chance of severe storms Sunday than we have today. We'll provide updates as we get closer to the event. 

EARLY WEEK

Behind the honest to goodness real cold front, it will, turn, obviously, cooler. But not cold. This won't really be weather whiplash. Instead, we'll see highs generally in the 70s for the first half of the week, maybe ticking up toward 80 degrees once we get toward Wednesday.   

A storm spinning up near Hudson Bay might swing a few light showers our way during the first half of the week, but it won't be anything to worry about. It'll be dry most of the time. 

Severe Weather, Tornadoes, Ramping Up In The Middle U.S. Again

A dust storm in rural North Dakota caused vehicle 
crashes. The dust storms spread across wide
areas of the northern Plains and southern Canada.
Photo from North Dakota Highway Patrol

The same weather pattern that kept us in Vermont pretty cool and showery for the first half of May also suppressed severe weather in Tornado Alley. 

Sure, there were some severe storms, high winds, hail and a few tornadoes over the past couple weeks. 

But not the frightening, powerhouse tornado outbreaks that often terrorize the Plains, Midwest and South this time of year.

That's about to change. That shouldn't be surprising, as this is the peak of severe storm season. 

ALREADY STARTED

We had the first hint of that on Wednesday and Thursday. A strong storm system in southwestern Canada swept high winds through the northern Rockies, northern Plains and into Manitoba, Canada.  

The dust storms with this weather system actually started on Wednesday in Utah and Idaho. The dust storm there caused an eight-car pileup in Utah.  The storm created a blast furnace in Montana, where record highs were set  in Havre, Great Falls, Bozeman and Billings, where it was 95 degrees. 

The heat was accompanied by intense winds. Big Sandy and Livingston, Montana gusted to 85 mph, Toston, Montana reached 78 mph and Havre reached 74 mph. A line of severe thunderstorms amid this chaos created a rare for Montana haboob.

The blowing dust continued in Montana Thursday, and spread into the Dakotas and Manitoba Thursday.  In some parts of Manitoba, rain showers collided with dust clouds, making it basically rain mud in a few places. 

IT WILL GET WORSE

Weather patterns are setting up in such a way to encourage more severe weather and tornadoes. Today, people from Texas to Wisconsin are under the gun, but Iowa seems like the main target. Although tornadoes are a possibility, the real threat late this afternoon and tonight is giant hail and winds to 75 mph. 

It's been a tough year for huge hailstones, and this could add to the destructive drama. 

Saturday

The "fun" is forecast to keep going in Iowa tomorrow, and spread into Nebraska and northern Kansas, where the best chance of bad storms arises. 

The risks look similar to today's. A couple tornadoes could spin up, but the biggest threat is huge hailstones and strong straight line winds. Remember, hail storms can easily be more damaging than tornadoes. Hail usually covers a much wider area in a storm than a tornado path would. 

Sunday

This looks like it might be the more dangerous day of the string of severe weather days. The early thinking is some supercells will develop in Nebraska and southern South Dakota and move east. That raises the risk for a tornado outbreak. 

The supercells will then congeal into a line of powerful storms moving into Iowa. Those wild storms could well include embedded tornadoes, and some of them could be strong, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

Monday

Monday will probably be the most dangerous day
out of the next several for severe storms in tornadoes
The darker orange area has the highest risk. 

This is the day to really watch the weather closely. Especially if you're anywhere between Texas and Michigan. The highest risk looks to be in some of the places that are likely to get hammered this weekend. Plus some new areas. 

That means Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, much of Missouri, Oklahoma and eastern South Dakota need to be on their toes. 

The Storm Prediction Center says that some of the tornadoes expected to touch down might be strong to intense, which is never a happy prediction. 

Most tornadoes are relatively week EF-0s and EF-1s.  

Stronger tornadoes, EF-2s and EF-3s, with winds of between 111 and 165 mph, represent about 15 percent of all U.S. tornadoes and account for about 25 percent of U.S. tornado deaths, give or tak

Less than one percent of all U.S. tornadoes are EF-4s or EF-5s, with winds of 166 mph and up. But those powerful twisters cause roughly 70 percent of all U.S. tornado deaths.  

The bottom line: Pray for weak tornadoes because the strong ones create the worst tragedies. 

Tuesday and Beyond

Severe storms are expected to continue in the Midwest Tuesday, then move more toward the south and southeast Wednesday and beyond. Exactly where the worst storms might fire up later in the week is till TBA

 

Spring Is The United States Storm Season: Dramatic Videos Prove It

Damage from an extreme hailstorm in Springfield, Missouri
in April. Video of the storm is in this post, Photo from 
Springfield Daily Citizen via Facebook

As we all know, spring is the tornado and storm season in the United States. That always leads to some pretty dramatic videos.   

We've got some of them here to let you gawk at Ma Nature at her angriest. Let's get right to it: 

During an outbreak of tornadoes on April 17, the town of Lena, Illinois was hit hard. The tornado was seriously wrapped in rain, so you couldn't see the actual funnel. 

And the parts of town that weren't' actually hit by the tornado were hammered by a wall of intense rain and wind that did its own damage .

The tornado itself was an EF-2 with top winds of 130 mph. 

The video is a web cam that recorded the maelstrom moving into the city. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Also, there's another Lena web cam that has a different perspective basically overlooking the entire town. Click on this link to view that one. 

In our next video, we see the benefits of obeying the safety rules when a tornado seems imminent. 

Two women were keeping track of a tornadic storm on their phones as they sat in the kitchen of a Minnesota home. 

When the wind suddenly picked up. The women quickly decided to run downstairs, with their two dogs in tow.  See in the video what happened next. Spoiler: The women made the right decision. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

On April 23, a massive tornado, an EF-4 with top winds of 170 mph, struck part of northern Oklahoma. It hit the southern edge of Vance Air Force Base before sliding along the southeast corner of Enid, Oklahoma.  It wiped out about 40 homes in a subdivision, but miraculously didn't kill anybody. There were ten relatively minor injuries.

The video below shows that as bad as this tornado was, things would have been much, much worse, had its path been the same, except displaced a little bit to the northwest. Enid is a city with a population of about 51,000. Had it gone through the middle of town, the destruction would have been extreme 

The video is a time lapse from a web cam that overlooks downtown Enid. You can see the tornado come  in from the right side of the view.  It eventually gets lost in an area of torrential rain, but it was still causing its damage even when it was invisible in the rain. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Springfield, Missouri was hammered by a huge hailstorm on April 28. Some of the stones were at least softball sized, so you can imagine the damage. Sadly, the hail killed an emu at the local zoo. An unknown number of cars were damaged or destroyed, but the number of vehicles wrecked had to be in the thousands.  

At the Springfield-Branson National Airport, hundreds of cars left in the parking lot by people who flew to wherever were trashed, with busted out windows and huge dents. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"Some passengers had to be buses around 100 miles away to the airport in Bentonville, Arkansas because rental cars were damaged. (Airport Public Information Officer Ren) Luebbering said airport staff spent three hours covering the most badly damaged vehicles with donated tarps. 'We think we put 300 or 400 tarps out there on cars," Luebbering said. The airport warned online, 'Expect damage to your vehicle."

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Here's another view of the chaotic Springfield, Missouri hail storm. Again, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 On April 28, an EF-3 tornado caused a lot of damage in Mineral Wells, Texas. The tornado was wrapped in rain and hard to see. In this video. people in a car inadvertently drive to very near the edge of the tornado. The wind is howling on this freeway and debris fills the air. Pretty scary! As always, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

During another round of severe weather in the South,  storm chaser Daniel Shaw was driving near Monterey, Louisiana. They didn't see any tornadoes, but the lightning really put on a show. The video shows plenty of lot of lightning strike and Shaw kept saying they are not getting out of the vehicle. 

The end of the video is what really shocks, literally. Shaw is parked in a Family Dollar parking lot when the building gets hit by lightning. Let's 

 As always click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Storm chaser Aaron Rigsby's videos often make an appearance in these video highlight posts I occasionally issue. This is not technically one of Rigsby's videos but he stars in it. 

That same batch of lightning barrages affected Rigsby. He was chasing severe storms in Mississippi when lightning struck the Toyota Rav 4 as he sped down a highway. The car is toast.  Rigsby said he is OK, but felt the buzz of electricity when it struck.  He got into another storm chaser's car to continue the hunt for tornadoes.

Inside Edition has the story. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on this. 

So here's something different: A time lapse of an enormous iceberg passing by the town of Ilulissat, Greenland on April 13.  Looks like a mountain kind of saying, "never mind me, just passing through, I'll be out of here in no time. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

UPDATE: Confirmed:Tornado Last Night In Williamstown, Vermont, Top Wind 90 MPH

A maple sugaring shack collapsed in a confirmed EF-1
tornado that hit Williamstown, Vermont last night

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington confirmed late this afternoon that a tornado did indeed hit Williamstown, Vermont. 

It was a very brief one. It was 100 yards wide and only traveled just under a half mile (the path was officially 0.43 miles long. The tornado hit at 9:15 p.m. and was on the ground for less than three minutes.

The tornado was rated an EF-1 with winds up to 90 mph. Here's the National Weather Service narrative on this one: 

"Initial damage was observed as sheared tree tops about 100 yards west of damage observed on Chelsea Road, to an old sugarhouse and small building estimated as EF0-EF1. Damage continued east to a neighborhood on Lila's Way, where EF-1 damage to a hone was observed, along with damage to numerous trees, Damage then became scattered wind damage in the form of straight-line winds estimated at 60 to 70 mph. Golf ball size hail with siding and window damage observed along Baptist Street,"

An EF-0 tornado has winds of 65 to 85 mph. An EF-1 has winds of 86 to 110 mph 

I have not seen any reports of injuries which is great!

No tornado warnings were issued before the brief touchdown.  My guess is that since the twister was east of the Green Mountains, radar in the Burlington area was unable to pick up ground level rotation. Or the tornado was so brief it hit between radar scans.

The lack of a tornado warning does not appear to be related to Trump administration cut backs to the National Weather Service.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South had been tracking the tornado's parent thunderstorm all evening. Rotation was detected over the Adirondacks but it appears no tornado touched down there .

The thunderstorm weakened slightly in the Champlain Valley but re-intensified over and east of the Green Mountains. The NWS noticed how much the reinvigorated storm had intensified. At 9:27 p.m., they issued a severe thunderstorm warning

The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 9:27 p.m. for northeastern Orange county and south central Caledonia County. The warning told people in the area to expect 60 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball sized hail.

WPTZ reported that residents were understandably shocked by the storm.  Christian Pratt said he believes the roof of his home was damaged by wind and hail He said the large hail falling on the rood sounded like somebody took a ladder and dumped a load of rocks on the roof. The kitchen window on his house shattered

Vermont averages just one tornado per year. I believe this twister was the first one since July, 2023. This was Vermont's first April tornado on record. The rare occasions when we do see tornadoes usually come during the summer.

Vermont's first March tornado on record occurred just five years ago in Middlebury. 

  

Possible Tornado In Williamstown, Vermont Last Night

Screen grab from WPTZ shows a destroyed barn, and
a collapsed sugar shack (background left). The
National Weather Service is investigating whether
this was caused by a tornado or just strong winds

Personnel from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington are in Williamstown, Vermont, investigating a possible tornado. 

Video from WPTZ showed a destroyed barn on Chelsea Road in Williamstown was destroyed and a collapsed sugar shack collapsed.  Debris was visible tangled in damaged trees. 

 Judging from the video, damage was confined to a limited area. .Trees on the other side of a field behind the wrecked structures looked mostly fine. 

An apparent supercell thunderstorms crossed the Adirondacks early last evening, then moved west to east across central Vermont.  There were reports of hail up to size of golf balls and wind damage in Barre and Orange, which are near Williamstown.

I'll have full update on this once the National Weather Service finishes their survey and reports on their findings. That will come later today or tomorrow morning. 

Another Severe Storm Risk Southern Vermont In The Summer Air. North To Stay Cool, Rainy Afternoon/Evening

There's a slight risk, level two of three of severe storms
today in the yellow shading. That includes southern Vermont
and central New York. Dark green indicates the possibility
of just very isolated high wind gusts with storms. 

 Our pesky stalled weather front is still with us, bringing warmth to southern Vermont and just seasonal, damp weather to the far north. 

The disparity was great again on Wednesday. In Burlington, the high was 53 degrees. Montpelier reached 57. But in Rutland, it was a summertime high of 77. Bennington reached 79 degrees.

We face yet another day of wide ranging temperatures today. And much like on Tuesday. we're in for another soaking rain north, and the risk of severe storms south. 

The front settled in south-central Vermont overnight. It will slowly lift back north as a warm front, but it probably won't reach far northern Vermont. So it will stay coolish and damp up there. The southern half of Vermont will have another summery day, one that will feel vaguely humid. 

Highs will range from just under 60 degrees at the Canadian border to around 80 degrees in the valleys near the Massachusetts border. 

SEVERE STORMS SOUTH?

I'm slightly more bullish on strong to severe storms in southern Vermont than I was Tuesday, when there were a few strong storms in far southern Vermont. But there are also factors that might prevent a lot of trouble. If the front moves a little north too slowly, it might not clear up and warm up enough to destabilize the air. 

But since the next disturbance will be approaching Vermont later in the day than on Tuesday, I think we can at least fire up some strong storms in the southern half of the state. The best chance of any severe storms would be along and south of Route 4, where NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a level 2 out of 5 risk level. 

The risk of an isolated strong wind gust or hail from a thunderstorm extends up to about Route 2, but ig anything happens in that zone, it should be very isolated. Unless our weather front surprises us and leaps further north than expected.

Always beware of weird springtime warm fronts. 

The later storm arrival schedule today will give time for storms to develop in western and central New York and reach Vermont during peak heating.  The storms will probably actually be stronger in New York state, but a few could reach the Green Mountain State at severe levels. 

That could mean pockets of damaging wind, and hail. There's a very slight chance some supercell thunderstorms could form just ahead often main batch storms. That means once again, there's a very, very low, but not quite zero chance of a brief spinup tornado. But don't focus on that. Focus on the potential wind damage in spots from storms. 

Some of the storms should also have torrential downpours. But the storms' forward motion will be fast enough to prevent much in the way of flooding. 

As always, this will be hit and miss. You won't know if a bad storm is headed your way until you see the dark clouds approaching, hear the thunder, and also maybe hear the weather warnings. 

Especially if you're going to be outdoors have a way to hear any possible warnings or weather statements.

WET NORTH

For northern Vermont, it'll be another wet day. Areas of fog and drizzle early this morning should lift somewhat, leading to relatively dry weather in the late morning and early afternoon. That's your chance to do anything you need to do outdoors. 

There might be a few spot light showers anytime after noon or so in the north. But the bulk of the rain should start to arrive around mid afternoon. The late afternoon and early evening should be quite wet in the north. The rain will taper to areas of drizzle and fog again later tonight. 

Even though northern Vermont will be along or north of that slow, nearly stalled front, that part of the state could still see some non-severe thunderstorms embedded with all the rain. 

Most of the north should see another half to three quarters of an inch of rain. A local downpour might drive the total to an inch in isolated spots. Again, even though it's wet and rivers are running kind of high, it appears the worst we can expect is very minor flooding. 

EVENING THINGS OUT

The disturbance causing today's potentially rough weather will finally be driven out.  Friday and Saturday look much more normal across the entire state. Skies will at least partly clear, and we won't see the big range in temperatures we've gotten used to this week. Highs should range from 60 far north to 70 southern Vermont valleys. So a nice day!

Saturday looks mild and breezy ahead of the next cold front, which will be coming in from the west. Enjoy Saturday, it might be the last nice day we have for awhile. 

SHARPLY COLDER

The cold front on Sunday really means business. It will throw some rain at us Saturday night. By Sunday, it will be downright chilly as temperatures during the day stay steady or fall through the 40s. 

There also might be a cost to all that warm weather in southern Vermont. Plants and trees down there will have really advanced prematurely into spring with all the balmy weather down there.  In the north, spring will not have gotten as far along, since it's been cooler. 

Monday looks frigid, with many of us not getting out of the 30s for highs. We'll have a hard freeze statewide, which could damage buds and sprouts, especially in southern Vermont where it's been really spring. 

We'll keep an eye out on that, but for now, we'll focus on the weather today. Be aware of those incoming storms central and south today. They could be doozies  

Monday Vermont Evening Weather Update: Those Expected BIG Changes Coming Overnight

A have one patch of a really early variety of daffodil, so
I was happy to see this in today's warmth. (My other
daffodils are barely nubs emerging from the earth)
It's going to be awhile before all these grow further
as tonight's cold front will snap us back to reality. 

 I hope you enjoyed our incredibly brief warm spell today in Vermont because the cold front that will end it all is on our doorstep.

It was actually quite nice this afternoon as the wind died down, as expected and temperatures rose into the upper 50s.  We might not end up quite as warm as forecast, but 58 or so is still really nice for this time of year.

As winds increase this evening, some places will temporarily warm up even more.  Burlington went from 56 to 66 degrees between 6 and 7 p.m. as south winds started blowing there. 

As the front approaches this evening, winds will probably pick up again.   Some showers that were moving into Vermont as of 5:30 p.m. might limit the winds a little bit. But don't necessarily count on that. 

A wind advisory is still in effect for Vermont, and that has been extended to through 11 a.m Tuesday. More on why the advisory stays in effect for part of tomorrow further down a bit. A high wind warning remains in effect for a good chunk of northern New York. 

The rain should be showery, off and on for the next few hours. It'll briefly rain hard in many places when the front comes through later tonight.  This morning we said that should not be enough to cause flooding and that's still the case. So a bit of good news there. 

The actual cold front seems to be temporarily slowing down somewhat on approach to Vermont. Some of the computer models don't actually bring it into western Vermont until a little before midnight.  

The front will still be super noticeable when it comes through tonight for anyone who is still up. The temperature over in Syracuse, New York went from 66 to 46 degrees with an hour earlier this afternoon

In Vermont you'll wake up a completely different world than today's. Temperatures will be down to around 30, give or take. There might be a dusting of snow on the ground and the puddles will all be frozen. A cold west wind will be screaming with gust to 50 mph. Which is why that wind advisory is still in effect tomorrow. 

Expect a few scattered power outages between now and noon tomorrow. 

The winds will begin to slow down a little in the afternoon, but it'll still be blustery as hell. And actual temperatures will remain below freezing all day. Wednesday will also stay at or below freezing for most of us, but the wind should be lighter. 

It'll warm up a tiny bit for the end of the week, but it will be quite awhile before we see any balmy weather again. 

Storms In Hawaii Cause Widespread Flooding, Other Havoc. Worst In Years

Torrential rains in Hawaii made this house
slide down into a raging river as a 
long lasting, severe storm rakes the
islands. Photo via Facebook, 
Dillon Mitchell 

A week long storm is easing - but not quite done - as Hawaii once again reels from widespread flooding, wind damage and landslides. This storm was the worst in a series. 

As Forbes reports:

"Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency as the week-long onslaught of rainfall, landslides and infrastructure damage continued into the weekend."

Forbes continued: 

"'Maui got it even worse and locals describe that the whole island feels like it is underwater,; wrote his Dodds in Surfer. He continued: 'The steep slopes around Haleakala turned into walls of mud, rock and debris moving at terrifying speed. Some are calling it the worst rainstorm in the island's modern history.'"

Rainfall amounts were incredible. A site in Maui recorded a five-day total of 44.37 inches of rain. Other sites on Maui had 25 to 35 inches of rain over those five days. 

On the big island of Hawaii, Mauna Loa had 25.45 inches of rain in five days with other sites on the Big Island coming in with over 20 inches. A few locations on Kauai and Oahu reported nearly 20 inches of rain over that five-day period. 

Those rainfall amounts were even greater than forecasts, which were themselves ominous. 

On Maui, roads became rivers, with vehicles floating in them like leaves in a stream. In one neighborhood, a large storage container joined the vehicles that had floated downstream. Tourists could not cross the rushing water on the streets to make it back to their condos. It was too dangerous. 

 Power outages have kept coming in recent days even as crews have worked in the storms to restore power. More than 120,000 Hawaiian homes and businesses were without power Friday. That number was at around 114,000 on Saturday. 

More than 100,000 Hawaiians were without power Saturday. 

The Hawaii Department of Transportation reported parts of numerous roads closed due to the heavy rain and flooding

In Waikiki, news video showed high winds and sheets of heavy rain, making the streets look like they were enduring an approaching hurricane. Streets and sidewalks were louder water. In a luxury shopping district, an enormous tree collapsed in the storm, blocking most lanes of a wide, busy avenue. 

Nearly an hours's drive from Waikiki on Oahu's North Shore, things were even worse. Major roads, fields,s, and even a major beach access were under muddy water because of the relentless rain 

Video from Maui showed a house collapsing into a swollen river. Sections of roads have collapsed, some taking cars and SUVs with them.  

On the Big Island, Kilauea volcano complicated things further. Just before the storm, an eruption created a rain of tephra (chunks of lightweight lava, debris and ash) on areas surround the volcano. That's the second time this winter such an event happened, and this one was more extensive than a tephra fall back in January.  In some places six inches of tephra accumulated.

Cleaning up that mess was complicated by the heavy rains. And I imagine the tephra clogged ditches and brooks somewhat, which would exacerbate flooding. 

If this post sounds kind of familiar, it's because we reported on another destructive storm back on  February 11.  It's been an incredibly rainy, windy winter in Hawaii

As I earlier noted, the storm over the past few days far outdid and out-damaged all the other previous storms this winter.   

Some of the storm's origins came from as far as the southwestern United States. The building heat wave and strong dry high pressure is causing a blockage in the atmosphere, allowing a train of storms to blast through the Hawaiian Islands. 

The principal storm was know as a Kona Low, which frequently occur in Hawaii during the winter. Usually winds in Hawaii blow from the east. A Kona Low forms when winds shift to the west or southwest, bringing much more humid air from the tropics. 

Because of the usual trade winds, the wettest parts of Hawaii are on the north and east side of the islands. South and west sides are actually pretty dry. The Kona storms, with their high humidity and southwest winds, can drown the the drier parts of the island. 

The storm is easing as to today. Instead of wet southwest winds, or the usual east to northeast trade winds, the breezes are slackening to near calm. That'll keep showers going all week across the islands. There's the risk of yet another Kona storm towar

 

Storm Blasting East; Severe Weather Threat Continues. Up In Vermont, Windy, Warm, Then A Crash

A lightning strike map from Sunday of the
 powerful\storm's squall line. Notice how
long it is, stretching from Chicago to
Houston. The squall line will enter
 the East today with severe storms
Other severe storms and tornadoes
are likely to form out ahead of the line. 

The United States is  dealing with yet another huge storm that will probably be yet another that causes at least $1 billion in damage. 

It's covering such a wide area- from the Plains to the East Coast - that collectively it's causing plenty of damage. 

This storm is hitting us here in Vermont too, but thankfully not as destructively. More on how this is and will affect the Green Mountain State further down in this post. 

Blizzards are leaving what is expected to be up to three feet of snow in the Upper Midwest  An ice storm is wreaking havoc in northern Michigan.

Worst of all, the storm's powerful cold front, as expected, generated a squall line that is causing tremendous wind damage along its path. 

 The National Weather Service collected at least 430 reports of thunderstorm wind damage on Sunday from this squall line. Judging from some damage photos, including one from Rector, Arkansas, there were likely a few embedded tornadoes. 

National Weather Service investigators will sort out which damage was caused by straight line winds, and which damage was associated with tornadoes. 

Even away from the squall line, just general high winds with the strong storm caused power outages, felled trees and damaged buildings. For instance, the roof blew off a building in Jamestown, in western New York. 

Roughly 535,000 homes and businesses in the United States were without power due to the storm as of this morning. The worst was in Michigan, with about 125,000 outages. That was due to heavy freezing rain in northern parts of the state, and a blizzard in the Upper Peninsula. 

Major roads remained closed this morning including two interstate highways in southern Minnesota.  

TODAY

The actions shifts east today, with the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts most in the crosshairs today. Severe storms with damaging winds are possible all the way from northern New York to the southern tip of Florida,

But the main area of worry extends from southeast Pennsylvania to coastal Georgia. A roughly 150 mile wide band from Maryland to northern South Carolina is under an even higher alert - level four out of five in the National Weather Service's danger scale. 

Strong thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the cold front in the Mid-Atlantic States. Strong winds, changing direction with height, can cause these storms to spin. That, in turn, could spawn tornadoes. 

Then the main cold front will arrive with its own batch of storms with high winds. If you know anybody in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast, make sure then know to listen for weather warnings are are ready to take shelter at the drop of a hat. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The wind in parts of Vermont is cranking from the south this  morning, especially in the Champlain Valley.

The wind will be the main story Vermont's experience with this storm. A wind advisory is in effect for the entire state. A high wind warning is up for chunks of northern New York, including much of the Adirondacks. Saranac Lake, New York already had a gust to 65 mph overnight. 

The winds might tend to die down a little late this morning and early this afternoon. I'm already noticing this here in St. Albans as of 9 a.m. It'll still be windy, just not as bad.

This afternoon, just ahead of our sharp, strong cold front, winds will ramp up again, especially in the Champlain Valley. That's when the air will be warmest, and winds a few thousand feet overhead will be strongest. The warm air will allow more mixing in the atmosphere, helping to draw down some stronger gusts from above. 

Areas outside the Champlain Valley will also notice increased winds, but it won't be quite as bad.

Temperatures across Vermont were in the 30s and 40s as of 9 a.m. We still expect highs in the low 60, maybe mid 60s in a few places. Those high temperatures will actually probably come in the early evening just before the front arrives.

When that cold front does get here, you'll know it!  For most of us, it will come with a big but brief gush of rain, strong winds quickly shifting to the west. Temperatures will fall just as rapidly. 

Between today's winds and whatever comes along with the cold front, expect some scattered power outages and tree damage here and there. This won't be the most ferocious Vermont wind storm ever, but it will be on the noticeable side. 

Rainfall will be between a half inch and perhaps three quarters of an inch. That'll be enough to get rivers rising again, but not enough for them to break their banks. 

By dawn, many of us will be below freeing again. And it probably won't get above freezing all day. Winds will also stay gusty from the west and northwest. We might need another wind advisory east of the Green Mountains where gusts should be a little stronger on Tuesday. 

No wild weather events are scheduled for the rest of the week after this goes by, so I'll leave forecasts of  the coming days for another, later post.  

Wild Storm Creating Midwest Blizzard, Big Severe Weather Outbreak; Vermont To See Wind, Rain, Snow, Temperature Weirdness

The National Weather Service website home page
is getting colorful with lots of weather warnings
due to a wild, strengthening storm. This map
should get even more colorful later today
through tomorrow with a variety of
dangerous weather expected.

The big storm in the middle of the nation is underway, with widespread blizzard conditions in the upper Midwest. Worse, the storm is set to cause a huge severe weather outbreak over a wide area from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.  

The storm is still likely to give those of us in Vermont, and surrounding states, a bunch of wind, rain and wildly fluctuating temperatures. More on that in a bit, but first the big picture of the storm. 

BLIZZARD

A huge area encompassing the eastern half of South Dakota, the southern half of Minnesota, most of Iowa and Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan are under a blizzard warning. 

They're already calling it a historic storm, as some places in Minnesota might get over two feet of snow. A enormous patch of real estate across the upper Midwest is expecting at least a foot.  Up in northeastern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan, up to three feet of snow might come down. A few forecasts I've seen call for up to four feet in spots in the UP.

All this is either getting propelled or about to be propelled by gusts that will exceed 50 mph, maybe making it to 60 mph in a few spot. 

South of the blizzard zone, high winds are raking he Plains from Nebraska down through Texas. Wildfires have been plaguing that region in recent weeks due to drought and strong winds. Today is just going to make matters worse there, especially in Texas and New Mexico. 

SEVERE WEATHER

The biggest threat from this storm is severe weather and tornadoes over a wide area. I keep saying "wide" or "enormous" areas, but this storm is so powerful its influence is being felt practically everywhere.

The storm's intense cold front will create a derecho-type situation with widespread strong wind. Some tornadoes might be embedded in this squall line. And a few supercell thunderstorms might form ahead of the cold front to also create a few tornadoes. 

The Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley and the Ohio Valley look to be under the greatest threat today. 

Tomorrow looks like things might get even worse. The action Monday will be along the East Coast from southern New York to Florida. A zone from Maryland to South Carolina is under a moderate risk of severe weather, the second highest of five alert levels. 

Ahead of the cold front, supercells look to develop in the Carolinas and southern Virginia, with the risk of strong tornadoes.

Then the actual cold front slams in, with a very windy line of thunderstorms.  Widespread straight line wind damage looks to be the primary threat from this line of storms, but there could be a few tornadoes embedded with that line of rough weather.  

VERMONT EFFECTS

Though we won't have anything as dramatic as three-foot-deep blizzards or strong tornadoes, the weather is going to put on a bit of a show locally.  

Unlike in similar storms, the warm front coming through tonight won't have much moisture to work with. There might be bits of snow, sleet or rain later this afternoon and evening in spots, but nothing substantial. Also, some of the sheltered valleys of eastern Vermont might see a little freezing drizzle through early tomorrow morning 

The winds will really pick up overnight and Monday. The worst winds tomorrow should be over the northern Adirondacks over in New York, where gusts could reach 60 mph or so.

A wind advisory is up later tonight and through tomorrow in the Champlain Valley with hang on to your hat gusts to 45 or even 55 mph in spots. It'll be windy in the rest of Vermont. But so far, not quite windy enough to trigger a wind advisory. 

Temperatures will warm overnight in the Champlain Valley and that will spread into the rest of the state during the day. Highs should get to near 60 degrees by afternoon. 

I'm not going to get into specifics on when some showers might race through from time to time tomorrow, Just know they might happen, pretty much whenever, But parts of the day will be dry. So enjoy that warmth!

It'll be that cold front which is will be causing so much trouble elsewhere that will really make us take notice. It'll blast through in the evening with gusts of wind, brief torrential downpours, maybe a rumble or two of thunder. 

The rain shouldn't last long enough to create any real flooding problems. Just some rises on area rivers. The usual March rainy weather drill. 

After that, temperatures will crash and fast. By the time you get up Tuesday morning, all that water will have frozen. Many of us will have a little snow on the ground. Winds will crank from the northwest, so we might need another wind advisory for Tuesday. 

Temperatures probably won't get above freezing Tuesday. Maybe the same for Wednesday, too, But it'll get a tad warmer by the end of the week with seasonable March weather.  

Friday Vermont Forecast. Some Snow Later Today Through Saturday; Large, Windy Storm Monday

We're back to the snowfall prediction maps from the 
National Weather Service. Through tomorrow,
the valleys should generally get about two inche
of snow, maybe a little less in spots, The Green
Mountains and southern Adirondacks, and
New Hampshire's White Mountains should
do great, with perhaps 4 to 7 inches. 

We watched the temperatures yesterday fall down through the 30s, and for many of us, it was below freezing by late afternoon or evening. 

This was nothing unusual for mid March, but it was a reality check after the record warm temperatures earlier in the week. 

Burlington did end up tying the record high for the date at 63 degrees yesterday. That came just after midnight very early in the day before a cold front arrived. 

Some of us got a dusting of snow last evening to remind us what time of year it is. We were still getting flurries here in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning. 

Ahead, we have one small storm first, and then one very large storm to deal with here in Vermont. Aside for a brief excursion into balmy weather Monday, it's going to be relatively wintry for awhile. 

I know, I know, but it's only March. Spring will get here eventually. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY/SATURDAY

We've got our small storm to deal with first. It's coming in from the west and will pester us from this afternoon through much of tomorrow. 

This one will be mostly snow. But the good news for those of you who are tired of snow is accumulations should be pretty limited in the valleys. The Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys should only see 0.5 to 2 inches. Even so, the wet snow could come briefly heavily this evening, so watch it on the roads. 

The mountains look to get much more, perhaps four to as many as eight inches. That will refresh ski resort slopes a bit after our huge thaw. There is a winter weather advisory from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon in the southern and central Green Mountains.  

High temperatures both today and tomorrow will be in the 30s, so not far from normal for this time of year. That means the snow will mostly be on the wet side. They call this kind of snow sugar snow under the belief it adds moisture for the maple trees to produce more sap.

We should also have gusty winds at time as this storm passes through. 

BIG STORM

NOAA forecast map for Monday shows a powerful
storm centered over Michigan. This storm will 
give us a quick squirt of warm air and rain
Monday, followed by sharply colder air
We should also have a lot of wind with this storm.

The next storm will stir up a huge amount of trouble in the eastern half of the nation.  It'll start developing in the central Plains Saturday night, get to about Iowa Saturday night and the heat up into the central Great Lakes, strengthening all the while. 

It'll be a powerhouse with widespread high winds from the eastern Rockies to the East Coast. The system cause another severe storm and tornado risk in the Midwest Sunday and in the southeast Monday. A blizzard will unfold north and west of the storm track.

For us in Vermont, the storm will mean a brief period of mixed precipitation, a lot of wind, a brief zoom of temperatures up to 60 degrees or so Monday, along with rain, then an abrupt, sharp drop in temperature down to winter levels again

If we have any mixed precipitation it would be fairly light and occur Sunday night, at least the way it looks now. South winds would really ramp up Sunday night, too.

That warm air will engulf us Monday, but be short-lived as a powerful cold front comes in from the west. We're unsure on the timing of that front, but early guesses place it in Vermont early Monday evening, give or take.

That would leave us with temperatures rapidly crashing to below freezing, a quick changeover to snow showers, and strong winds from the north.

As always, we'll update this one as we get closer to the event. 

Hurricane Melissa Now Tied For Strongest Atlantic Hurricane On Record

Satellite view of Hurricane Melissa just before it hit
Jamaica in October. A National Hurricane Center 
review, issued today, indicates Melissa tied for 
the strongest hurricane on record in
the Atlantic basin. 

When we were reporting on Hurricane Melissa trashing Jamaica  back in October, we described it as one of the strongest Atlantic Ocean hurricanes on record. 

Since then, the National Hurricane Center has taken a deep dive into the mechanics and existence of that powerful hurricane. On Thursday, they announced their analysis shows Hurricane Melissa is actually tied with a 1980 hurricane as the strongest on record for the Atlantic.

Hurricane Melissa killed 95 people, including 45 Jamaicans and 43 Haitians.  

When the hurricane was raging, its highest winds were estimated at 185 mph, putting it in the top six list of strongest Atlantic hurricanes.

But a National Hurricane Center post-storm analysis, released Thursday, shows the hurricane actually had top sustained winds of 190 mph not long before landfall. Winds did "diminish" to 185 mph when it came ashore in Jamaica, but I'm sure nobody there noticed the difference the the screaming roar of the beastly storm. 

The only hurricane known to be as strong as Melissa in the Atlantic was Hurricane Allen in 1980. That storm reached its top strength in the the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. Allen caused 220 deaths in Haiti due mostly to flooding.  The hurricane weakened rapidly as it made landfall near Brownsville, Texas. 

As it hit the coastline of Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa's sustained winds of 185 put it in a three way tie for strongest winds in a hurricane at landfall. The others were Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas in 2018 and a deadly hurricane in South Florida back in 1935.

Not surprisingly, the winds caused immense damage in the part of Jamaica hit by the strongest winds. According to the National Hurricane Center's report:

"Extreme winds destroyed virtually all wooden structures, stripped roofs from most building and even causes severe damage to concrete construction. Vegetation suffered extreme damage not only near the coast, but in mountainous areas across the entirety of western Jamaica as the eyewall passed over the island. Trees in that area were completely defoliated, and in several locations the force of the wind was sufficient to strip bark from trunks and scour paint from walls and buildings."

 Another measure of a hurricane's strength is how low the barometric pressure gets in the core of the storm. Melissa's air pressure in the eye got as low as 26.34 inches or 892 millibars. That ties with the 1935 hurricane as the lowest pressure in an Atlantic hurricane as it was making landfall. . 

The National Hurricane Center's final report also notes the incredible amount of lightning in Melissa's eyewall.  The eyes wall is the circle of intense winds and rain surrounding a hurricanes. The eye walls in most hurricanes usually have little or no lightning. Melissa had a ton of it, at one point showing 600 flashes per 30 minutes. 

Wind sensors in Jamaica were few and far between and most of those failed in Melissa's high winds. A school in Jamaica did record a gust to 131 mph. 

As is the case with most hurricanes, Melissa dumped incredible amounts of rain. Up to 35 inches fell in southern Haiti, 32 inches across the interior highlands of Jamaica and 27 inches in southwestern Dominican Republic. 

Melissa appears to be part of a disturbing trend in Atlanta Ocean hurricanes. The overall number of them doesn't seem to be increasing, but the number of Category 5 storms - the strongest of the bunch -seems to be increasing. 

In 2025, only five hurricanes formed in the Atlantic Ocean, but four of them were major, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. Three of them were powerful Category 5 storms with sustained winds of at least 157 mph. 

Warm ocean water is jet fuel for hurricanes, and the water temperature where hurricanes usually develop has been getting hotter and hotter, thanks to climate change. If the conditions are right, these ultra-warm waters have an easier time developing extra strong hurricanes. 

One study found that climate change increased the strength of all 11 Atlantic hurricanes that formed in 2024.

It's really looking like a warming world will make hurricane season more terrifying that it has ever been before.