Brief Vermont Sunday Evening Update: Drizzle To Become Patchy Freezing Drizzle As Tonight's Temperatures Drop

The slush I photographed outside my house late this 
afternoon will be slippery ice by the time I get up
in the morning. Bits of freezing drizzle overnight
won't help, either. 

That slush in northern Vermont is going to freeze soon, while those areas, and some other parts of the state face the prospect of freezing drizzle tonight. 

Most of the snow fell in far northern Vermont, as we alluded to this morning.  It turned out to be much less widespread than predicted. Almost everybody south of Route 2 had less than an inch. 

The highest accumulations we saw were also less than the highest accumulations we thought we'd see. Those higher amounts include 5.5 inches in West Burke; 5.4 inches in Maidstone and 4.5 inches in North Hyde Park.

The rest of the day turned into the very definition of miserably dreary. The far southwest corner of Vermont did break out into slightly warmer air, as Bennington made it to 48 degrees. The rest of us endured low clouds, fog, drizzle and a cold light rain.

That's about to get worse, As of late this afternoon, temperatures in northern and central Vermont will slowly sinking, and the moisture in the air was not going away. 

That sets us up for freezing drizzle tonight. It will be more widespread than the patches of it we had Friday night. 

A special weather statement from the National Weather Service tells us patchy freezing drizzle will continue off and on all night and into tomorrow morning. And, all that slush and water is going to freeze up overnight, too. The freezing drizzle itself will only create a thin scrim of ice, but that's enough to slow you down on the way to work tomorrow.

There were already a number of traffic accidents earlier today as a bit of snow, then freezing drizzle then drizzle that didn't quite melt the ice kept things hectic for Vermont State Police. 

By afternoon, the character of the day will change as the atmosphere starts getting windier and more unstable. That will send some snow showers flying through the air here and there, but it won't about to much.

Monday Vermont Evening Weather Update: Those Expected BIG Changes Coming Overnight

A have one patch of a really early variety of daffodil, so
I was happy to see this in today's warmth. (My other
daffodils are barely nubs emerging from the earth)
It's going to be awhile before all these grow further
as tonight's cold front will snap us back to reality. 

 I hope you enjoyed our incredibly brief warm spell today in Vermont because the cold front that will end it all is on our doorstep.

It was actually quite nice this afternoon as the wind died down, as expected and temperatures rose into the upper 50s.  We might not end up quite as warm as forecast, but 58 or so is still really nice for this time of year.

As winds increase this evening, some places will temporarily warm up even more.  Burlington went from 56 to 66 degrees between 6 and 7 p.m. as south winds started blowing there. 

As the front approaches this evening, winds will probably pick up again.   Some showers that were moving into Vermont as of 5:30 p.m. might limit the winds a little bit. But don't necessarily count on that. 

A wind advisory is still in effect for Vermont, and that has been extended to through 11 a.m Tuesday. More on why the advisory stays in effect for part of tomorrow further down a bit. A high wind warning remains in effect for a good chunk of northern New York. 

The rain should be showery, off and on for the next few hours. It'll briefly rain hard in many places when the front comes through later tonight.  This morning we said that should not be enough to cause flooding and that's still the case. So a bit of good news there. 

The actual cold front seems to be temporarily slowing down somewhat on approach to Vermont. Some of the computer models don't actually bring it into western Vermont until a little before midnight.  

The front will still be super noticeable when it comes through tonight for anyone who is still up. The temperature over in Syracuse, New York went from 66 to 46 degrees with an hour earlier this afternoon

In Vermont you'll wake up a completely different world than today's. Temperatures will be down to around 30, give or take. There might be a dusting of snow on the ground and the puddles will all be frozen. A cold west wind will be screaming with gust to 50 mph. Which is why that wind advisory is still in effect tomorrow. 

Expect a few scattered power outages between now and noon tomorrow. 

The winds will begin to slow down a little in the afternoon, but it'll still be blustery as hell. And actual temperatures will remain below freezing all day. Wednesday will also stay at or below freezing for most of us, but the wind should be lighter. 

It'll warm up a tiny bit for the end of the week, but it will be quite awhile before we see any balmy weather again. 

Quick Tuesday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Road Conditions Going Downhill

Traffic cam grab shows slushy roads in Burlington
late Tuesday afternoon as the snow continued to fall

Here's our quick Tuesday evening snowfall update for Vermont:

The snow arrived about an hour or so later than forecast in much of Vermont this afternoon, but it did arrive.

As of 5 p.m., it was snowing lightly statewide. This evening, we're in the peak of the storm, though this isn't exactly a scary one. 

Still, the roads for the evening commute, or going shopping, or to holiday events won't be great. Temperatures in some areas were at or just above freezing in some warmer valleys for part of the afternoon. But those temperatures have fallen a degree or two as darkness arrived. 

The snowfall rates also picked up a little at sunset, too. Highways that had been just mostly wet at around 4 p.m. were getting snow and slush covered, and more slippery by the minute. 

The steadiest snow in the valleys should last until around midnight, give or take, depending on where you are. Forecast total accumulations haven' changed, with two to five inches expected across most of Vermont. The mountains are still likely to do better than that, with roughly four to eight inches up there. 

Christmas Eve continues to look as if it will bring us quiet and rather cloudy weather. Forecasts for Christmas Day have changed a little, with a bit more snow than originally forecast. But it won't be much, with maybe an inch or two north and less than an inch south. 

A Bit Of Snow Making Vermont Travel Bit Iffy This Evening; Winter Weather Advisory Tomorrow

Light snow falling and blowing around along Route 78
in Alburgh in this traffic cam grab. Roads are a bit
iffy through northern Vermont this evening because
of light snow. We're still on track for a few inches
of snow later tomorrow, too.

A patch of light snow was blowing through central and northern Vermont late this afternoon, so just a heads up: 

The roads on the way home from work today aren't perfect.  This will mostly affect areas from Route 4 north this evening. 

It's a very light snow, and will amount of less than an inch. But a dusting is enough to make the roads just slick enough so that you'd want to slow down. 

Basically, just lay off the gas peddle and the eggnog this evening and you should be good to go. 

The snow is very light and dry, too. If a big truck passes by you, it could stir up enough snow to briefly cut your visibility to almost nothing. 

The big news, of course, is tomorrow's somewhat bigger storm. This evening's update is that there's a winter weather advisory is now up for most of Vermont except the Champlain Valley, western Rutland County and the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

Those of you under the advisory can expect three to five inches of fresh snow between tomorrow and Wednesday morning.  If you're not under the advisory, you'll still probably get a good two or three inches of snow out of the deal. 

The mountains will of course get more snow than the valleys. Forecasters are still talking four to eight inches at the ski areas, fingers crossed. 

I'll have a full update on this with tomorrow morning's post. 

Thursday Evening Update: Vermont Storms Not Quite Over Yet

Storm clouds loomed over Lake Champlain Thursday
afternoon, looking west from South Burlington, Vermont.
 There were scattered instances of severe storms in 
the state today, and some storms might continue this evening.

As expected, there have been a fair number of heavy showers and thunderstorms around Vermont today. A small number of them have been severe.  

As of 5:30 p.m., so far the worst one appears to be one that hit north central Vermont a little before 4 pm. 

This was part of a line of strong storms that developed just west of Lake Champlain starting at around 1:30 p.m. , crossed the Champlain Valley and into the Green Mountains by late afternoon.

Trees were reportedly blown down with this storm in South Cambridge, Eden Mills and North Fairfax.

Although the storm in St. Albans wasn't severe, it did produce strong, gusty winds. Strong enough to cause a neighborhood emergency near the lake. 

A large tree reportedly blew over onto a house and propane tank on Hathaway Point Road near the lake. The incident broke a line between two propane tanks, which prompted evacuations of nearby homes. At last report, the leak had been fixed and residents were allowed to return home.   

Another severe thunderstorm was blowing through far southern Vermont along and just north of Route 9 between Bennington and Brattleboro as of late afternoon. 

At around 5 p.m. storms that appeared to be fairly strong were moving northeastward near Stowe and in northern Rutland County. 

Other storms might pop up between now and just after dark in Vermont.  There is still a chance one or two of them could become severe, but the chances that they'll become destructive will decrease through the evening.

Overnight, the showers and storms will end all together as a cold front moves through. 

Watch out on Lake Champlain Friday morning. A period of pretty strong west winds is expected for awhile before noon tomorrow. Gusts could reach as high as 45 mph with wave heights going as high as three feet.

It's unusual to get winds like this in June outside of thunderstorms. On land, the wind might be strong enough to knock down a few trees and branches here and there. The wind will subside nicely during the afternoon.

We're still looking at a possible stormy overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning. That situation is still iffy,  but we'll want to get more information on that. I'll update you tomorrow morning. 

 It looks like the temperature was able to sneak up to 90 degrees this afternoon in Burlington just before a brief thunderstorm arrived there.  That's the second time this summer already it's been 90 degrees there.

A hot spell is still in the works Sunday to Tuesday, especially Monday. It could get up to 90 degrees on Sunday if it clears up fast enough. Monday looks like a lock for near record high temperatures in the mid-90s. Depending upon how fast a cold front arrives, Tuesday looks like it could be impressively hot, too. 

Updates on all this will come in my post tomorrow morning. We seem to be in an active June weather pattern for a little while, don't we?

Burst Of Snow Interfering With Tuesday Northern Vermont Evening Commute

Traffic camera grab for Interstate 89 in Georgia shows
pretty gnarly road conditions as a burst of "warm front"
snow passes through. Roads in northern Vermont
look like they will be pretty slick this evening. 

 A warm front associated with that large storm in the center of the nation is giving a surprisingly hefty burst of wet snow to northern Vermont. 

As of 4:30 p.m. a full inch of new snow had accumulated here in St. Albans. Traffic cameras show iffy driving conditions in Vermont, north of Route 2.

As of 4:30 p.m. traffic cameras showed it had just started snowing along Interstate 89 in Colchester and road conditions didn't look that bad - yet. 

As you headed north along the Interstate, things were just beginning to deteriorate along I-89 at the Lamoille River bridge in Milton. By the time you get up to Georgia, I-89 was obviously snow-covered and slick.

Since the snow is headed east, almost everyone along and north of Route 2 will see at least some snow and likely slick roads late this afternoon and this evening. 

The atmosphere continues to warm, and some of this snow might still flip to rain. 

But still, you might be surprised by some ice and slush under your tires as you head home from work. Be careful out there. I'm sure we'll have some slide offs, a few crashes and some delays on the highways.  If you were planning on going somewhere in northern Vermont but really don't have to, it might be wise to stay home this evening. 

This is all a precursor to the warm rain we're having tomorrow. I'll have much more on that in Wednesday morning's post. 

 

Quick Vermont Snow Update: Little Change In Forecast, Mountains Rejoice, Wind, Blowing Snow Everywhere

National Weather Service snow total forecast for this
storm issued this afternoon, is almost identical to the
one issued early this morning. The expected chain of 
events now through Friday is little changed, too.

 Our Alberta clipper storm is here in Vermont as of early this evening, with occasional light snow overspreading the entire region. So here's a brief Wednesday evening update. 

Roads aren't terrible, but there are slick spots, so you'll want to take it easy if out on the highways tonight. That state of affairs will continue all night into early tomorrow morning.

 Snow will keep falling on and off, with not much in the Champlain Valley and probably a plowable snow elsewhere.

We're still on track for snow showers, some locally heavy on Thursday. At this point, I think the afternoon and early evening might end up being the trickiest part.

Temperatures seem like they will rise slightly above freezing in many of the warmer valleys in the late morning and early afternoon. By afternoon and evening, temperatures will fall below freezing as colder air rushes in. Snow showers will continue, and some of them will continue to have some oomph. Winds will strengthen from the northwest. They'll eventually gust to 40 mph.

The combination will freeze roads pretty fast, and the added snow and blowing snow will turn what had been wet main roads in many places to icy, snowy, slow nightmares. Tonight's commute, and tomorrow morning's commute will have their issues. But chances are the worst conditions will be reserved for those of you on the way home late tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

Consider working remotely from home if you can tomorrow.

Total snowfall forecasts have not changed. Most of Vermont gets three to eight inches by Friday morning, with something closer to one to four inches in the Champlain Valley. The Green Mountains get six inches to locally a foot or more especially in the far southern and northern Green Mountains.

Expect a cold, blustery day Friday with pretty low wind chill factors. It will at least feel like the coldest day so far this winter. 

We're still expecting another warmup starting Sunday and continuing into midweek. 

Just A Brief Monday Evening Iffy Storm Update: Still Deciding On Vermont Snow

As of Monday evening, we were still awaiting some agreement
on the computer models on whether it will be a snowy
Vermont Thanksgiving or just a meh kind of weather day.

 Frustratingly, we still don't have all that much firm forecasting on the potential storm in New England on Thanksgiving.  

Since this morning, the forecasts have leaned a little more toward the less dire scenario, with some snow but not all that much. Plus, this scenario doesn't have much cold air, so we'd also have some rain in the warmer valleys, but not a super substantial snowstorm.

The European model continues to cling to a scenario in which Vermont and surrounding areas get several inches of snow Thanksgiving and Thanksgiving night.  

Let's hope Tuesday morning forecasts are more consistent, we'll see 

We're still looking at icy roads in central and eastern Vermont early tomorrow morning from light freezing rain that's expected to fall, starting in the pre-dawn  hours. It'll change to rain later in the morning. 

The one place where forecasts are remarkably consistent is for the week or two after Thanksgiving. It'll be colder than  normal, so winter will have arrived. Unfortunately, extended forecasts have trended drier than normal, too, so we won't get much snow or other precipitation to erase the dry conditions we still have, despite some recent rains. 

Hurricane Milton Evening Update: It's Striking Florida Now, With Still Some Uncertainties

Satellite view of Hurricane Milton around 6 p.m. today
on final approach toward landfall on Florida's 
Gulf Coast. Conditions were already super rough there.e 

As of late this afternoon, Hurricane Milton was on final approach to the west coast of Florida.

We still know it's going to be bad, but even though the eye of the storm is close by, there's still questions as to how bad and where.  

At 5 p.m. Hurricane Milton was centered only about 60 miles west, southwest of Sarasota, Florida. Top winds were down to 120 mph. It could either be a Category 3 storm at landfall with winds of between 111 to 129 mph, or a Category 2 with winds of 96 to 110 mph.

Even if it's a Category 2, that definition is misleading in this case. Since Hurricane Milton was so incredibly strong over the past couple of days, it's mustering up a much bigger storm surge than most hurricanes of that strength.

Plus, as anticipated, the hurricane is getting larger. Tropical storm force winds extend out 255 miles from the center and have enveloped much of western Florida. As of 5 p.m. winds were gusting to 62 or 63 mph in some spots along the immediate coast. 

Gusts in Sarasota increased from 48 mph at 5 p.m. to 60 mph at 6 p.m. 

A couple of last minute twists have entered the picture with this hurricane. 

First of all, it was supposed to slow down, delaying landfall until midnight or a little after. It didn't slow down. At least not yet. Landfall now looks like it will hit between 9 and 11 p.m.  It's really too late for people to flee now, and the worst of it will come even sooner than I imagine some people planned.

The National Hurricane Center said those living in areas with the anticipated strongest winds should take shelter in interior rooms away from windows. The strongest winds will be near and just to the north of the eye when it comes ashore. 

STORM SURGE

The storm surge forecast continues to look complicated. Contrary to some messages I've seen, Tampa Bay is still in play for a possible cataclysmic storm surge. 

Hurricane expert Bryan Norcross noted on Fox Weather late this afternoon that the center of Milton was a little north of a lot of the forecasting guidance. That raised the possibility that the center of the hurricane could crash right into Tampa Bay instead of blowing by a short distance to the south. 

That would open things up for a devastating storm surge there.  Forecasters still think the worst storm surge will probably be near Bradenton and Sarasota, and the barrier islands offshore of those communities. 

Screen grab of video at 6 p.m shows storm surge
already inundating Fort Myers Beach, Florida
with Hurricane Milton still offshore. 

The orientation of Hurricane Milton when it comes ashore will mean there will be huge differences in storm surge heights over short distances, the National Hurricane Center noted. 

 Since the hurricane will be so close to Tampa Bay when it comes ashore, it'll make the storm surge in that area especially unpredictable.

The initial rush of wind and water would slam into the bay, but then strong east winds might blow water westward.  It's a crapshoot, so everybody who was under evacuation orders should have left. Even if a few lucky places don't get much of a storm surge. Because we don't know who those lucky people will be, if they end up existing at all. 

The bottom line is, just a difference of a few miles in the eventual path of Hurricane Milton will make an enormous difference as to what happens in Tampa Bay. 

Winds ahead of landfall are coming from the east, so that's keeping some of the storm surge away. But as the hurricane comes ashore, the wind and waves will shift abruptly, coming from the west. That storm surge will smash through coastal towns, cities and neighborhoods with alarming, deadly force speed. 

Another complication is the timing of high tide tonight. 

Complicating matters even more is the timing of today's high tides. High tides in most of the greatest threat zone are before dawn Thursday, so it looks like the incoming tide could work in concert with the storm surge. We shall see.  

OTHER HAZARDS

Tornado warnings are still flying in parts of Florida, and that risk will continue the rest of the night.  On top of the hurricane warnings, flash flood warnings are now in effect along the path of the storm, especially in places like Sarasota and Tampa as torrential rains are now ripping through. 

The damage is just beginning, and we won't have much of an idea of how bad the damage will be, and how many people will die for a few days at least. 

I've already seen some potential Florida Darwin Award winners on television, including a car seen heading out to the extremely vulnerable barrier islands off the coast of Sarasota or Bradenton. This, with landfall coming very soon. 

The storm will be out of Florida by this time tomorrow. Its departure can't come a moment too soon. 

 

Saturday Evening Vermont Big Snowstorm Update: Over-Performing South, Under-Performing Far Northwest

Total snow in and near Vermont as of about 3 p.m.
These aren't the final totals as more snow was falling.
Notice the large area of south central Vermont
with the deepest snow. 

 Well, today's storm has been something in south-central Vermont as some totals in that region will probably end up going over two feet.  For that region, this is one of the largest late season/spring snowstorms on record.   

As of late afternoon, Ludlow had already reported 22 inches, White River Junction 20 inches and North Hartland, 19.  It was still snowing hard in those regions, too.

In the rest of northern Vermont, except the northwestern part of the state north of Burlington, it looks like this one will work out as advertised, with most of these areas looking in line to see 10 to 18 inches. 

The bust zone was the northern Champlain Valley. Dry air aloft limited snowfall, and also created very small snowflakes that did not accumulate readily.  As of 6 p.m. St. Albans had only received 6.1 inches of snow, and precipitation was just about to end there.

We'll have final snow totals tomorrow. 

EFFECTS

Not surprisingly, the roads in Vermont and surrounding areas have been awful all day, with lots of slide offs and crashes reported, 'natch.

Screen grab of traffic camera along Route 4 in
Mendon Saturday afternoon. Not easy going. 

Some sections of roads had to temporarily close. For instance, Route 12 near Rowell Hill Road in Berlin had to close for a time due to several accidents. Route 117 near Jericho closed for a time as well due to a crash. A snowplow in Bradford reportedly went off the road. 

One big break was the fact the snow wasn't as wet and heavy as forecasters thought it would be. 

As of 5:30 p.m today there were pretty much no power outages in Vermont. A few might crop up this evening, but we won't have that 10,000+ outage mess we've repeatedly had since last fall. We caught a break there. 

NEXT UP

The snow will end northwest to southeast this evening, so the last places to see the snow quit will be the ones that already have seen the most snow.  

By midnight, the snow will be out of our hair. It will be another blustery and cold night, with some blowing snow around. 

Just a mellow snowfall in St. Albans, with just 6.1 inches
new snow as of 6 p.m. 

Roads should remain snow covered and slippery well into the night. It'll take awhile even after the snow tapers off to clear them. Road crews have been out all day. They'll also need a break overnight before hitting the snow again early Sunday morning.

Expect TONS of traffic on the way to the ski areas Sunday morning. People have been waiting all winter fora storm like this, so the resorts are going to be absolute zoos on Sunday. 

Like I mentioned this morning, backcountry skiers, riders and hikers ought to be careful. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least a couple small avalanches on steep slopes up in the Green Mountains. 

It IS going to be a gorgeous day to go out and either play in the snow or clear it out. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s for most of us. That's chilly for late March. But the high sun angle and light winds will make it feel warmer.  

Sunday is going to be absolutely blinding, too. That high sun angle reflecting off that fresh, deep snow is going to be stunningly bright. Sunglasses are absolutely de rigueur on Sunday. 

A couple public service announcements: If you have a fire hydrant near your house, dig it out and clear away the snow at least a couple feet away from it.  Also, if you have people nearby who are old or ill or disabled, and you're healthy, help them clear the snow. Good deed for the day, right?

Beyond Sunday

It's going to take time for the snow to melt, since there's so much of it in most of Vermont now. But met it will, because it is spring after all.Highs Monday should reach the low 40s. Tuesday through Thursday will be even warmer, with some low 50s popping up in the warmer valleys. 

So it's a return to mud season.

I still don't see an immediate threat of flooding, unless some sort of storm takes us by surprise. The forecast for the next week is fairly dry, with only some showers around Wednesday or Thursday.  We're lucky there's no very wet, very warm storm in our near future. 

That's especially good since it's already been a very wet March. Through 4:30 p.m. today, Burlington had 3.86 inches of rain and melted snow this month. If it stopped now, it would still be the fifth wettest March on record. 

 

Quick Wednesday Evening Storm Update: Few Changes, Blast On Our Doorstep

Strong south winds in St. Albans Bay today was causing 
a slight "ice shove." The wind was pushing ice
up the bank toward the park above the lake. 

Quick Vermont storm update this late Wednesday afternoon. 

It's gotten awfully dark out there as of 4 p.m. this afternoon and the south wind has picked up as the big promised cold front bears down on us.  

We did manage another record high in Burlington today as it reached at least 60 degrees so far, besting the record of 59 degrees in 2018. 

 It might go up another degree or two, as sometimes an approaching cold front compresses the air, heating it a bit. 

It still looks like it will enter western Vermont a little after 6 p.m. and quickly move through. 

There have been some little changes to the forecast.

Most notably, the flood watch has been dropped. 

Expected showers during the day under were pretty underwhelming, so we missed out on that runoff.  The downpours with the front shouldn't be enough to cause much in the way of flooding. Rivers will still rise, but most should stay at or  just below bankful 

Winds will remain gusty from the south until the front hits.  Some favored areas in the Champlain Valley are gusting over 40 mph and that will continue for a couple more hours. 

When the front arrives, the wind will pick up from the west. Some of the taller showers with this front might be able to grab some high speed air from aloft and bring it to the surface. That'll be hit and miss.  

The western half of Vermont still is under a marginal risk for severe storms, because of those possible wind gusts. That's the lowest risk level on a five point scale.  As of 4:15 p.m., I am seeing a line of scattered lightning strikes near Ottawa, Canada and a couple more near Watertown, New York. 

So there might be an isolated lightning flash or two or a rumble of thunder when this comes through in the next few hours. But nothing to really light up the skies. 

Behind the front, wind gusts will continue. The highest winds might actually come about an hour after the front goes through. By that point, says the National Weather Service, the atmosphere will be able to mix some higher speed winds to the surface. 

So, the wind advisory remains in effect through the night. 

A flash freeze later tonight is still in the cards, too. Nothing has changed with that aspect of the forecast. Expect some slick spots on the roads Thursday morning. Many of us will probably see a little snow at the tail end of this event, but it won't amount to much. 

You can see how fast it gets cold behind the front by looking at reports from western New York. Buffalo, New York was at 64 degrees at noon, but down to 45 at 1 p.m. By 4 p.m., it was 33 and snowing in Buffalo. 

Watertown, New York was at 61 degrees at 3 p.m. and 45 at 4 p.m. So it's coming, folks!

It's still looking blustery and cold tomorrow. 

I'll leave it at that and I'll see how we did with this in the morning with a new report here in this blog thingy.  

Thursday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Forecast Still Steady As She Goes

 

This evening's snow forecast from the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington is little changed from
this morning. A moderate fall of fluffy snow is coming.

 We went from clear to overcast skies today, as expected, as what continues to look like the little storm that could continues to approach Vermont.   

We're in the final "windshield wipering" phase of the snow forecast, where predicted accumulations go back and forth from slightly lighter to slightly heavier and back again and again. 

 These small changes in how much any particular spot should get won't really matter. 

But the basic premise is still the same as it was this morning. Most of us should get a light to moderate snow, with the most in the Green Mountains and the least in the central and southern Champlain Valley

The sweet spot remains the central and northern Green Mountains. Those areas will see six to as much as 10 inches of fluffy snow. 

The Champlain Valley south of roughly Colchester and low elevations of Rutland and Bennington counties should get the least, with about 2 to as much as 4 inches of snow. The rest of us should end up with three to six inches. 

This will be a "Road Runner" kind of storm. It will really
be in and out of Vermont in a jiffy 

Winds might get breezy at times late tonight and Friday morning. Since the snow will be fluffy and powdery, it will blow around easily. So in addition to the snow on the roads late tonight and during at least part of the Friday morning commute, visibility might be an issue. 

For valleys, the snow still looks like it will be said and done by mid-morning Friday. This little bugger of a storm from the Great Lakes is moving right along. It's not in the mood to loiter around Vermont.

One model, for instance, has the storm a little north of Buffalo, New York around 7 p.m, tonight, then pretty close to Burlington around 2 a.m Friday; and off the coast of Maine by around sunrise. Kinda reminds me of the Road Runner, honestly.   

Lingering moisture well behind this system will keep the snow showers going in the central and northern Green Mountains all day and into Friday evening. Which is part of the reason why the Greens are going to do well with this storm.

Overall, this will be a pretty painless event, and will do more good than harm.  Sure, the roads will be crappy Friday morning, and you'll have to shovel snow.

The snow will be light and fluffy, so should be easy to clear. For a change, we're not getting heavy, wet "heart attack snow." 

Anybody who wants to go cross country skiing or snowmobiling ought to be encouraged.

It won't exactly establish a nice big snowpack in the mountains, but at least it will add a little. And definitely freshen things up enough to hopefully attract skiers and riders.  

 The forecast beyond Friday hasn't changed, much, either. We will have some bouts of light snow and flurries off and on Saturday through at least Monday.  Temperatures will stay reasonable, too. Most days will be in the 20s. Nights will be more variable, with lows in the single numbers to low 20s.

Another thaw seems like it wants to arrive by about Wednesday. As I said this morning, the new thaw doesn't look like it will last as long or be as extreme as the last one.

Sunday Evening Vermont Forecast Update Will Disappoint Snow Lovers

Updated National Weather Service snow prediction map. 
Predictions have been really scaled back in southern
Vermont, and this storm is increasingly looking 
underwhelming for snow loversl 

 It looks like the expected snow tonight in southern Vermont might go pfffft. 

At least to an extent.  

Meteorologists have scaled back expected snow accumulations for a reason you're going to mock: Dry air.

We've been socked in with low clouds and fog for days. So when we finally have an opportunity to squeeze some snow from all this wet air, all of a sudden we're talking about dry air?

Yep.

And said dry air is not going to solve our problems with this interminable overcast we're dealing with. 

The dry air is punching in several thousand feet overhead, up where snowflakes can form, not down here where most of us live. So the low overcast we've been oppressed by will continue. But the spot in the atmosphere than can manufacture snow flakes looks like it will falter.

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington describes it, the mid-level dry air will probably limit snowfall. Plus, the lift in the atmosphere is not great. You want rising air to create precipitation and we have it in this situation. But it's not impressive.

The result, at least according to Sunday evening forecasts, will be an underwhelming 1.5 to 3.5 inches of snow for Vermont from Route 2 southward. I suppose a few high elevations down south could see four inches or a little more.

By winter storm standard in Vermont, that's a big yawn. 

I suppose we could still be surprised by more snow than that, given how so many storms have over-performed this winter. But I'm not holding my breath. 

Areas of Vermont north of Route 2 were never expected to get much snow and that's still true.  OK, those northern areas might get a dusting to as much as a little less than an inch of snow. But who cares? That's not exactly Blizzard of the Century. 

On the bright side, parts of far northern Vermont got a brief interval of dim sun earlier today. The sun was sort of,  kind of out in a wimpy way for a half hour late this morning in St. Albans before the dark, low clouds dominated again. 

I'll take anything I can get. 

Looking ahead, I suppose we might get some sun Tuesday and Wednesday, which would be nice. But those breathtaking clear  blue skies with white snow coating the mountains we often get this time of year is not in the cards. 

At least we're still not seeing any signs of extreme cold for the next week or so. Through next weekend temperatures will vary from about average to moderately warmer than you'd expect for this time of year 

 

Some Vermont Roads Surprisingly Icy This Saturday Evening

A truck makes its way across a somewhat icy parking lot
in St. Albans, Vermont late Saturday afternoon. Light
freezing drizzle and snow flurries have slickened
roads this evening across parts of the state

 Just a little bit of freezing drizzle and snow flurries have left many northern Vermont roads surprisingly icy late this Saturday afternoon and evening. 

So much for my thoughts this morning that it was smooth sailing this weekend. 

Driving home from work at around 4:45 p.m., Interstate 89 was perfectly fine heading north from Burlington until I hit the Lamoille Bridge in Milton. 

There was a minor accident at the bridge, and the road all the way north to St. Albans was icy. 

Vermont State salt shaker trucks are out, but it'll take time to make everything safe. I'm sure many other roads across mostly northern and central Vermont are iffy at best. 

Accumulations are minimal.  Here in St. Albans, it looks like we got 0.2 inches of snow, mixed with a little glaze. 

So just be careful overnight, 

The rest of the quiet forecast I described this morning remains intact. Any flurries will end by morning, except maybe on the mountaintops.

I'm not sure how much it will clear up tomorrow, but there's a shot of some sun in the afternoon, .New Year's Eve night still looks partly to mostly cloudy and kinda mild for this time of year. 

Not warm, by any means. but temperatures should be between 18 and 28 at midnight. Not bad, considering how many New Year's Eves have been below zero.

No precipitation is in the forecast, except for maybe some lake effect snow flurries near Lake Champlain. 

So for now, just be careful out on the roads tonight. No drinking and driving, please. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Gorgeous Late This Afternoon, Dangerous, Wintry Within A Few Hours

The cold front and line of snow squalls looked 
really impressive on satellite imagery late 
this afternoon. Hard to pick out Vermont in this photo
but the line was less than an hour from entering
northwestern New York at around 5:15 when
this shot was taken. 

 As expected, today was an absolutely lovely day by late March standards in Vermont, but also, as expected, trouble lurks pretty soon as showers quickly turn to dangerous snow squalls amid gusty winds and rapidly falling temperatures within a few hours from now.  

(For the record, I'm writing this at around 5 p.m. Wednesday).

In Burlington, the temperature hit 50 degrees for the first time this month. In most years, it gets into the 50s and even 60s in March.  Burlington missed out on a warm shot on March 22 that sent most other places in Vermont into the 50s. 

Today was Burlington's first day that reached 50 degrees since a record high of 56 degrees on February 16.

Now, winter is on our doorstep. 

As mentioned this morning an Arctic cold front is barreling in our direction. The National Weather Service is still predicting intense snow squalls, but there have been a few minor changes to the weather forecast.

This morning, I mentioned the possibility of a line of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder before the main show begins. That seems to be only sort of happening. I do see a few convective showers late this afternoon in northern New York heading into northwestern Vermont, but they don't look particularly impressive.

Convective showers are the type that come from tall, billowing clouds. You see them all the time in the summer. 

The actual squall line, though, does look impressive. As of 5 p.m., it was around Buffalo, New York and just about to head into Ottawa, Canada. Numerous videos on social media show near zero visibility in the snow squalls in southern Ontario. 

It's moving steadily eastward , and will cross into Vermont between about 8:30 p.m., give or take in the northwest corner of Vermont and leave the state sometime around midnight 

When this thing arrives, expect rain initially, but it will change to snow super fast. And it will come down super hard for awhile. And it will have gusty winds. 

One change in the forecast from this morning: They were saying  the squall would be most dramatic in western Vermont. Now, that's changed a bit. The latest forecast indicates it'll be wild enough in western Vermont, but the squall line will consolidate and intensify further in central and eastern parts of the state, says the National Weather Service in South Burlington. 

Bottom line, you will not want to be on the roads tonight starting at around 8:30.  The snow will be briefly blinding. Road conditions will go from fine to awful in minutes.  

This won't last long in any one place, but the roads will probably stay pretty bad overnight amid those rapidly falling temperatures 

Thursday will be better, I suppose. The sun will come back out, but it will not feel at all like spring. Many northern areas will be really lucky to hit the freezing mark in the afternoon. This at a time of year when normal highs are well into the 40s. 

At least the cold snap will be brief. It'll start to turn warmer Friday, at least for a brief stay. But new storminess is due Friday into Sunday. 

I won't get into that now. I'll post about it tomorrow. 

Vermont Thursday Evening Storm Update: Still Icky Tonight, Still Few Question Marks

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has 
increased snow totals with this storm in northwestern
New York. Will they also need to upgrade expected
snowfall a little in northwestern Vermont for Friday?
Good question, and as of Thursday night, nobody
really has a good answer. 

 After an initial burst of snow earlier today, the weather settled into the mild-ish, gloomy and dark conditions we've become so accustomed to so far this month in Vermont. 

The snow didn't amount to much, but the real slug of precipitation is now on our doorstep. It's going to be an unpleasant night and Friday in the Green Mountain State.

Although the overall forecast hasn't changed much since this morning, I'm on the alert for some potential surprises Friday, especially in northwestern Vermont. 

Before we get to tomorrow morning, we need to deal with tonight.

 The main bulk of precipitation was just starting to enter southwestern Vermont as of 5 p.m. and will spread northeastward across the state pretty quickly this evening. This will be mostly rain and freezing rain in Vermont overnight. 

For the majority of us, this will be mainly a drenching, really cold but not quite freezing rain. Temperatures will stay in the mid 30s for most of us during most of the rain.  It won't be a nice night to be outdoors, that's for sure. 

Some areas are also due for a fair amount of freezing rain as well. It will be spotty, and mostly along and east of the Green Mountains. Like I said this morning, it will be a tricky night for driving. There will be random patches of freezing rain just about anywhere in the eastern half of Vermont, and you won't know exactly where they are when you're driving until you encounter them. 

The southeastern half of Vermont still looks like you might see a quick spike in temperatures well up into the 40s before dawn, and continuing into the first part of daylight. Enjoy the warmth, it won't last. 

The rain will come down fairly hard, and we're still expecting an inch or so of rain and/or melted ice. I don't see any real flooding to worry about, but hydroplaning on the highways, deep puddles on streets and other drainage issues might crop up. Main rivers will turn higher and faster, but won't actually flood.

FRIDAY

Here's where things get tricky, with a huge forecast bust potential

The one big change the National Weather Service office in South Burlington made was to upgrade the winter weather advisory to a winter storm warning in New York's St. Lawrence Valley. It looks like things will go over to snow pretty quickly there, and they'll probably end up with six to eight inches of snow out of this.

For those of you in Vermont are saying who cares about the St. Lawrence Valley, this upgrade raises questions for northwestern parts of the state. Will the cold air flood in earlier on Friday than expected? Will that mean more snow than the paltry one to three inches in the forecast.

I'm really not sure. The NWS South Burlington suggested in their forecast discussion that they might have to extend their winter storm warning further east in northern New York, but how far east, if they do? 

It's already looking like the changeover from a cold rain to snow will come earlier Friday than originally thought. The thinking earlier was we'd start getting into sleet and snow in the Champlain Valley during Friday afternoon.  It's beginning to look like it might come earlier, perhaps mid morning. If trends continue, it might even be earlier than that. If that happens, we'd have an unpleasant surprise for the morning commute.

We're not sure on that yet, but the further south and east you go in Vermont, the less chance of big snow and ice problems on Friday. My best guess is anything north and west of roughly a Middlebury to St. Johnsbury line could have a challenging Friday, especially from mid-morning to evening.

It's not like there's going to be tons of snow, but with wet roads freezing, and snow falling, it won't be great. It's still safe to say the northwest will see one to four inches, with less and less the further southeast you go in Vermont. 

Everything will basically be over Friday night. 

The weekend forecast continues to be on the quiet side, but there are hints of minor surprises toward Sunday as well. Mostly in eastern Vermont. I'll get into that more in Friday morning's update.