Grim Day In Caribbean As Extreme Hurricane Melissa Nears Jamaica Landfall

Close up satellite view of Hurricane Melissa's eye
nearing southwestern Jamaica at dawn this morning. 

 UPDATE 9 a.m.

It's even worse now.

A recent update just in has maximum winds up to 180 mph, and central pressure down to 896 millibars.

This now tentatively makes this the fifth or sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic on record.

Landfall will be within just a few hours 

I'm dreading the news later today from Jamaica.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hurricane Melissa sank to ridiculous extremes overnight, with winds staying at 175 mph on its approach to Jamaica.  

That the storm has maintained that incredible intensity since at least early yesterday afternoon is really something to dreadfully behold.

 The central pressure this morning in the eye of Hurricane Melissa was 901 millibars, making it the seventh strongest hurricane on record anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean. 

The updates are now coming so fast and furiously now that it's hard to keep up. But we'll give you a good idea and summary of what's going on. 

THIS MORNING'S SITUATION

Winds of tropical storm strength were lashing Jamaica at dawn. Those will quickly go to hurricane force by mid to late morning ahead of an expected landfall early this afternoon.

It's going to be a brutal day in Jamaica to say the least. 

Winds of 175 mph at landfall would flatten pretty much everything. There's a chance Melissa could "weaken" slightly before landfall, but as a practical matter, it won't make a difference.  Winds of, say 165 mph would have pretty much the same effect as winds 10 mph higher.  

To give you an idea how bad it is in there, hurricane hunter planes reportedly detected a gust to 241 mph just 700 feet off the surface offshore of Jamaica last night. 

Once Melissa makes landfall, the effects of hills and mountains can make the hurricane winds locally gust to 1.5 times the overall wind speed. Meaning some pockets in the Jamaican mountains could see gusts to 250 mph. We'll never know for sure, as there are few wind gauges to measure and probably none of those gauges would survive such winds.  

A wider visible satellite image of extreme 
Hurricane Melissa shortly after dawn today. 

The only good news is the area of hurricane force winds only extend out 30 miles or so from the eye. That means eastern Jamaica will escape the worst of the winds, but not the worst of the flooding. The water and landslides will be catastrophic island-wide.

Melissa is still moving pretty slowly, with a forward speed of just 5 mph. Most hurricanes, on average move at 10 to 15 mph. 

The slow movement means the extreme rains from Melissa will linger over Jamaica, and neighboring Haiti and Dominican Republic, longer than usual for a hurricane. That would make the terrible flooding with the hurricane even worse.  

I've been watching live cams from Jamaica, at least until the power goes out there. One of them shows the Flat Bridge over the Rio Cobre River in Spanish Town, Jamaica. As of around dawn, the river was a torrent, very high, muddy, full of debris. This was before the intense part of Hurricane Melissa arrived.

Imagine how bad the flooding will be after another one to three feet of rain crashes down on Jamaica today. 

The advice to Jamaicans from the U.S. National Hurricane Center is still dire:

"Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flash flooding, landslides and destructive winds will continue through today, causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communications outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa's center. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of of life."

On social media, hotel guests reported they are on lockdown. They've been advised to shove mattresses against the windows and huddle behind closed doors in the bathroom during the worst of the storm. 

The social media posts from Jamaica are already frightening. Virtuallywithdee on Threads, has been live posting her experiences with the storm. At 6:15 a.m. she posted:

"The updates are coming faster because I honestly can't believe what I'm seeing. The rain is pouring like someone's throwing buckets of water nonstop - the downpour is wild. Electricity is flickering in and out, and the mobile service is getting spotty. The wind is giving me chills... and she still hasn't even arrived yet."

HORRIBLE DAY AHEAD

Media reports and social media will probably go dark later this morning and stay that way for quite a while after as electricity and cell service collapses in the hardest hit areas. 

I'm worried sick about the fate of Jamaicans. CNN tells us the International Federation of the Red Cross says it expects 1.5 million people - more than half of Jamaica's population - to be directly affected by Hurricane Melissa. 

The worst effects will be across western Jamaica.  The Capitol, Kingston is in the eastern third of the island and expects peak wind gusts of 70 to 85 mph with up to 16 inches of rain. As of 7 a.m. wind was already gusting to 59 mph in Kingston. 

Montego Bay, in northwest Jamaica, should expect peak winds gusts of 100 to 140 mph and up to 20 inches of rain. Scary, indeed.

CUBA 

The worst conditions in eastern Cuba should hit later today and through tonight. 

In Santiago de Cuba, peak wind gusts are forecast to be in the 100 to 120 mph range, with about a foot of rain. Some nearby hillsides could see two feet of rain. 

Heavy rain is already falling in Cuba and that should get worse through the day. 

HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Hurricane Melissa is passing to the west of these two nations, but it's still having a catastrophic effect there, especially in Haiti. Extreme flash floods and landslides are likely there this week. Tropical storm force winds will also hit Haiti. 

Several deaths have already been reported in Haiti due to flooding and landslides. 

Hurricane Melissa is still forecast to smash through the southeastern Bahamas tomorrow and Thursday before heading into the open Atlantic. It could lash Bermuda with strong winds early Friday before it races into the cold northern Atlantic Ocean where it will finally die over the weekend.  

UPDATE: "Cutiecane" Oscar Hits Cuba, And It's Nothing To Laugh At

Satellite view of small but dangerous Hurricane Oscar
making landfall in eastern Cuba just before
local sunset. Flooding and landslides are its biggest threats.

Tiny little Hurricane Oscar, as expected, made landfall in Cuba at around 5:50 EDT p.m. today.  

The eye hit the city of Baracoa in Guantanamo province with maximum sustained winds of around 80 mph. 

Oscar grew a little larger in size today, but that's not saying much. Yesterday, hurricane force winds extended out only five miles from the eye in the center of the storm. 

Right before landfall today, those hurricanes force winds extended out ten miles from the eye.

That's still a damn small hurricane. So small that at least one wag and hurricane dubbed Oscar a "cutiecane."

 Oscar's effects on Cuba will be anything but cute, despite its small size. The storm could dump five to 10 inches of rain on parts of Cuba, with isolated areas receiving as much as 15 inches. 

That amount of rain is expected to fall because Hurricane Oscar has a slow forward speed and if anything is slowing down. That'll give it plenty of time to dump a lot of rain.

The storm is hitting a mountainous section of Cuba, which leads to a high risk of landslides and mudslides. 

Moreover, Cuba has been hit by two catastrophic electrical grid failures in recent days. The grid collapsed on Friday, and the government was beginning to restore power when the whole thing collapsed again Saturday. It's unclear when electricity will be restored to most of the island.

The power failures make it harder to prepare for and respond to the effects of Hurricane Oscar.

The storm is expected to linger over eastern Cuba until early Tuesday when it will start to drift north into the Bahamas. It's still unclear whether Oscar will survive over the rough terrain of Cuba. But if it does remain sort of intact, forecasts don't expect it to strengthen back into a hurricane. 

But given Oscar's surprising history, you never know. 

Hurricane Milton Evening Update: It's Striking Florida Now, With Still Some Uncertainties

Satellite view of Hurricane Milton around 6 p.m. today
on final approach toward landfall on Florida's 
Gulf Coast. Conditions were already super rough there.e 

As of late this afternoon, Hurricane Milton was on final approach to the west coast of Florida.

We still know it's going to be bad, but even though the eye of the storm is close by, there's still questions as to how bad and where.  

At 5 p.m. Hurricane Milton was centered only about 60 miles west, southwest of Sarasota, Florida. Top winds were down to 120 mph. It could either be a Category 3 storm at landfall with winds of between 111 to 129 mph, or a Category 2 with winds of 96 to 110 mph.

Even if it's a Category 2, that definition is misleading in this case. Since Hurricane Milton was so incredibly strong over the past couple of days, it's mustering up a much bigger storm surge than most hurricanes of that strength.

Plus, as anticipated, the hurricane is getting larger. Tropical storm force winds extend out 255 miles from the center and have enveloped much of western Florida. As of 5 p.m. winds were gusting to 62 or 63 mph in some spots along the immediate coast. 

Gusts in Sarasota increased from 48 mph at 5 p.m. to 60 mph at 6 p.m. 

A couple of last minute twists have entered the picture with this hurricane. 

First of all, it was supposed to slow down, delaying landfall until midnight or a little after. It didn't slow down. At least not yet. Landfall now looks like it will hit between 9 and 11 p.m.  It's really too late for people to flee now, and the worst of it will come even sooner than I imagine some people planned.

The National Hurricane Center said those living in areas with the anticipated strongest winds should take shelter in interior rooms away from windows. The strongest winds will be near and just to the north of the eye when it comes ashore. 

STORM SURGE

The storm surge forecast continues to look complicated. Contrary to some messages I've seen, Tampa Bay is still in play for a possible cataclysmic storm surge. 

Hurricane expert Bryan Norcross noted on Fox Weather late this afternoon that the center of Milton was a little north of a lot of the forecasting guidance. That raised the possibility that the center of the hurricane could crash right into Tampa Bay instead of blowing by a short distance to the south. 

That would open things up for a devastating storm surge there.  Forecasters still think the worst storm surge will probably be near Bradenton and Sarasota, and the barrier islands offshore of those communities. 

Screen grab of video at 6 p.m shows storm surge
already inundating Fort Myers Beach, Florida
with Hurricane Milton still offshore. 

The orientation of Hurricane Milton when it comes ashore will mean there will be huge differences in storm surge heights over short distances, the National Hurricane Center noted. 

 Since the hurricane will be so close to Tampa Bay when it comes ashore, it'll make the storm surge in that area especially unpredictable.

The initial rush of wind and water would slam into the bay, but then strong east winds might blow water westward.  It's a crapshoot, so everybody who was under evacuation orders should have left. Even if a few lucky places don't get much of a storm surge. Because we don't know who those lucky people will be, if they end up existing at all. 

The bottom line is, just a difference of a few miles in the eventual path of Hurricane Milton will make an enormous difference as to what happens in Tampa Bay. 

Winds ahead of landfall are coming from the east, so that's keeping some of the storm surge away. But as the hurricane comes ashore, the wind and waves will shift abruptly, coming from the west. That storm surge will smash through coastal towns, cities and neighborhoods with alarming, deadly force speed. 

Another complication is the timing of high tide tonight. 

Complicating matters even more is the timing of today's high tides. High tides in most of the greatest threat zone are before dawn Thursday, so it looks like the incoming tide could work in concert with the storm surge. We shall see.  

OTHER HAZARDS

Tornado warnings are still flying in parts of Florida, and that risk will continue the rest of the night.  On top of the hurricane warnings, flash flood warnings are now in effect along the path of the storm, especially in places like Sarasota and Tampa as torrential rains are now ripping through. 

The damage is just beginning, and we won't have much of an idea of how bad the damage will be, and how many people will die for a few days at least. 

I've already seen some potential Florida Darwin Award winners on television, including a car seen heading out to the extremely vulnerable barrier islands off the coast of Sarasota or Bradenton. This, with landfall coming very soon. 

The storm will be out of Florida by this time tomorrow. Its departure can't come a moment too soon. 

 

Helene Smashed Ashore Last Night With 140 MPH Winds, Now We Wait On Casuality/Damage Assessments

Screen grab from television station KSDK of a destructive
storm surge from Hurricane Helene plowing into
buildings in Cedar Key, Florida last night. 

 As of early this morning, at least three people have died in Hurricane Helene, and that number is expected to rise as people begin to look around once dawn breaks on trashed Florida and Georgia.

The disaster is ongoing. As of the pre-dawn hours, Helene was well inland with top sustained winds down to 70 mph. 

But it was unleashing torrents of rain and the likelihood of catastrophic flooding in parts of Georgia and the western Carolinas. 

The National Hurricane Center said Helene made landfall at 11:10 EDT time Thursday as expected just east of the mouth of the Aucilla River in Florida's Big Bend region. That's about 45 miles east, southeast of Tallahassee.  It was a Category 4 with top winds of 140 mph. 

On the bright side, Tallahassee just barely missed the worst of the winds from Helene as the eyewall passed a smidge east of town.  There's a lot of trees down and the power is out in the city, but the wind wasn't strong enough to blow houses and buildings apart, as had been feared. Some homes have been damaged in Tallahassee by falling trees.

Here's one sign that climate change might be making at least some hurricanes stronger and more dangerous:  Since 2017, eight Category 4 or 5 hurricanes have hit the United States, with seven of them in the continental U.S. That's as many Cat 4s and 5s in the previous 57 years, reports hurricane expert Jeff Masters. 

Videos beginning to emerge from Florida show deep storm surge flooding in Steinhatchee and numerous other places. The Weather Channel showed video of the storm surge in Cedar Key nearly reaching some roofs. Another video shows severe building damage in Lee, Florida.

The storm surge flooding extended well south of where Helene came ashore, causing a lot of damage in places like Tampa and Fort Myers Beach. The surge in Tampa and Clearwater reached record highs. 

That Fort Myers Beach was so damaged and flooded is especially sad since that community was absolutely devastated by Hurricane Ian in 2022 and was just starting to fully come back from that disaster.  At least this time, the destruction at Fort Myers Beach isn't nearly as bad as it was with Ian. 

Yet another video shows a storm surge blasting into the interior of a St. Petersburg Beach home. 

Further north and inland, water rescues were ongoing in interior Georgia and western North Carolina. Asheville, North Carolina was awash in severe flooding from heavy rain even before the core of Helene arrived early today. 

Weather radar shows the eye of Hurricane Helene approaching
northwest Florida last evening. 

Video showed rescuers pulling dozens of people from a flooded apartment complex in Atlanta, Georgia. In a very close call, a woman, baby and dogs were stuck atop a flooded car near Atlanta amid rushing waters for about an hour, but rescuers finally got them to safety. 

Both Atlanta and Asheville were under a rare flash flood emergency early this morning, which is the most dire of this type of warning. As of 7 a.m. there were unconfirmed reports of deaths and injuries around Atlanta.  There have already been reports of at least 16 inches of rain in the mountains of North Carolina.

As of 6 a.m. about 3.2 million customers were without electricity in the Southeast and that number was growing. 

Helene will continue to grind away at the Southeast today with torrential rains, floods and gusty, sometimes damaging winds. High wind warnings have now been extended as far north as Indianapolis, Indiana, where gusts are expected to reach at least 60 mph today.

Helene will fade away and merge with an upper level low over the mid-South later today and tomorrow. That complex could continue to cause flooding rains for the next couple days. 

Since dawn is just breaking in the hurricane zone as I write this early Friday morning, details are still sketchy, of course. I'm sure there will be more updates as the day goes by. 

As has been stated before, the remains of Helene will not affect us here in Vermont. 

Meanwhile, hurricane experts are beginning to watch another disturbance off the coast of Mexico which could eventually become yet another tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in about a week or so. 

Hurricane Helene Will Be Category 4 Monster At Landfall Later This Evening

Satellite photo of Hurricane Helene as of around 5 p.m.
today is a classic example of an extremely powerful
and strengthening hurricane. Note the small eye with
the nearly perfectly circular core. 

Hurricane Helene, which was steadily getting stronger last night and this morning, picked up the pace of its growing power this afternoon, and that will make the scary forecast scenarios come true.

As of 5 p.m. Hurricane Helene had top winds of 125 mph, up from 105 mph late this morning. It's now a Category 3 storm. 

Oops. That just got outdated in the middle writing this. As of 6:30, winds had increased to 130 mph, so now Helene is a category 4 storm. 

All signs point toward more fast strengthening in the few hours it has left over water. 

The National Hurricane Center noted that the eye of the storm has gotten smaller, the powerful thunderstorms around the eye have wrapped fully around that eye, and the storm is over a perfect environment to keep getting more monstrous. 

Satellite photos of Helene late this afternoon showed a perfectly symmetrical core around a well-defined eye. That's a real sign it's getting stronger. 

NHC expects Helene to be possibly a high end a category 4 storm at landfall with perhaps top winds of 145 to 156 mph.

All the awful things we've been talking about with Helene are about to happen. It's already starting with storm surges, tornadoes ahead of the storm and flooding well ahead of the storm up in the southern Appalachians.  

Gusty winds and rain bands are already sweeping Florida. By late afternoon, 130,000 customers were without power already. That will increase exponentially overnight in Florida, Georgia and beyond. 

The storm surges have begun well ahead of Helene, which is ominous. It reminds me of Hurricane Ike in Texas back in September, 2008.  Flooding from high tides began a good 12 hours before the storm hit. Then, when the true center of storm arrived, Bolivar Peninsula was pretty much swept clean by the storm surge. 

A total of 113 people died in Hurricane Ike, which wasn't even as strong as Helene is. 

The storm surge in northwestern Florida, especially in and around Apalachee Bay, is still expected to be up to 20 feet. There are a few people there in the path of the surge that we suspect haven't evacuated, with is a terrible move.  

The Taylor County sheriff's office is reportedly asking those who stay behind to write their name and date of birth on their arm with a permanent marker so their body can be identified after the storm. 

Helene has a forward motion of 23 mph. That's awfully fast for a Gulf of Mexico hurricane. That might make people in and near the area where Helene comes ashore get taken by surprise. The scenario means winds in the Helene target zone probably won't be all that bad into this evening. Then all of a sudden all hell will break loose.

As of 6 p.m., Helene was about 165 miles or so south of Tallahassee. At 6 p.m. winds in that city were from the northeast at 12 gusting to 22 mph. 

Very tame. Within a few hours from now, those breezes will become frightening gales gusting to 110 mph or more. 

Meanwhile, the storm is so large in area that western Florida was being battered by high winds even though the storm is centered 100 miles or more offshore. Sarasota, Florida was gusting to 67 mph as of 6 p.m. Most other southwestern and western Florida cities were seeing winds gusting over 50 mph

The strongest winds overnight will occur in a fairly narrow swath through Tallahassee, then Macon, Georgia and just to the east of Atlanta. 

Macon, far from the coast, can expect wind gusts to 90 mph late tonight and tomorrow. Areas east of Atlanta could easily see gusts approach 80 mph.

Expected high wind forecasts keep punching further and further inland. A high wind warning is now up for southeastern Kentucky, where expected gusts will be over 60 mph. Wind advisories for gusts to 50 mph now extend all the way to northwestern Indiana and eastern Illinois. 

The forecast hasn't changed for the cataclysmic flooding expected in the southern Appalachians. 

 This post probably comes off as scattered and disorganized. It is. This, more than most hurricanes I remember, has so many rapidly changing, moving, wide ranging parts and it's hard to keep straight. 

All I know is godspeed to the people in the path of Hurricane Helene. It's going to be a long, tragic night in Florida, Georgia and the southern Appalachians tonight. And that will continue through Friday. 

Lee Batters Maine More Than Expected, Vermont Surprisingly Pleasant

The last of the clouds from Storm Lee leaving 
Vermont Saturday evening had the look of finely
textured marble. 

Former Hurricane Lee is now making its way out of southeastern Canada, fading near the cold waters of the North Atlantic and into history. 

The storm made landfall Saturday about 50 miles southeast of Eastport Maine in an area of New Brunswick, Canada. It skirted just a few miles west of the western tip of Nova Scotia before landfall. 

The eastern half of Maine got pummeled more than I expected. One death was reported when a large tree limb fell on a car in Searsport, Maine. 

Maine is the most heavily wooded state in the nation, so the high winds on soggy ground were able to take down a lot of trees. Some of which hit power lines. Around 11 percent of Maine residents lost power in the storm. Over in Nova Scotia, more than a quarter of the province's population had no electricity, according to the Associated Press.  

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, which isn't really that far from the tropical storm zone, got off even easier than the already optimistic forecasts ahead of the storm. 

Wind gusts had been forecast to be in the 30 to 40 mph range, but ended up being quite a bit less than that. Top wind speed in Burlington Saturday was an underwhelming 28 mph. 

Skies began to clear in parts of the state during the afternoon. The late afternoon and evening in western Vermont proved to be one of the nicest of the summer. 

Temperatures were perfect. Instead of annoying gusts, we had pleasant, soft light breezes.  . The skies were a deep blue, mixed with some finally, pretty, textured high clouds from the remnants of Lee's outflow. 

A NEW ENGLAND MISS OF SORTS

It's true Maine was pretty trashed by Lee, but this storm was yet another miss from a would-be hurricane in New England.  Lee was considered post-tropical by the time in neared Maine and Nova Scotia. And it made landfall just over the U.S. border in Canada. That means New England has not had a direct hit from a hurricane since Hurricane Bob in 1991.  

Irene in 2011 was a tropical storm - a particularly destructive one - by the time it hit New England, so it doesn't count as a hurricane. Floyd in 1999,  Isaias in 2020 and a few others were also former hurricanes, when they hit New England, but were downgraded by the time they got here. 

That's an awfully long time for us to avoid a hurricane. And puts New Englanders out of practice as to how to deal with a hurricane. True, we get big nor'easters which are also intense storms, but hurricanes usually have worse storm surges, more intense winds and heavier rain that nor'easters. 

That 1991 Hurricane Bob is an example of what an happen with a New England hurricane. It was a category two storm at landfall in Rhode Island. The storm killed more than a dozen people and caused $1.5 billion in damage. 

Any hurricane hitting New England would probably be as bad as Hurricane Bob, really. 

OTHER STORMS

While we were focusing on Lee, two other tropical systems have been bubbling along.  For a time Hurricane Margot was moving north in tandem with Lee, but it was several hundred miles to the east of that system. Since then, Margot has declined into a tropical storm, and should completely fall apart in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean today or tomorrow.

Elsewhere, as the old, obnoxious song by XTC goes, we're only making plans for Nigel.  But not that many plans, since Tropical Storm Nigel so far doesn't appear to be much of a threat, either. Nigel is expected to quickly grow into a hurricane, and a fairly strong one at that. But it will move north through the central Atlantic Ocean and poses no threat to the United States or Canada.

Another cluster of thunderstorms is forecast to move westward off the coast of Africa this week and that one will probably grow into a tropical storm or hurricane. It's way, way, way too soon to know what that thing will do.  

Hurricane Idalia Smashes Ashore In Florida; Widespread Damage Ongoing

Screen grab from video taken from the Weather Channel's
Jim Cantore showing a storm surge blasting into 
Cedar Key, Florida early this morning. 

 Hurricane Idalia, as expected, slammed into the northwestern Florida coastline at around 8 a.m. this morning with top winds of around 120 mph. 

The eye hit Florida's "Big Bend" area a little south of the town of Perry and just a little southeast of Apalachee Bay. The hit zone was about 50 miles south of Tallahassee. As of 8:15 p.m. the airport in Perry was reporting north winds at 62 mph gusting to 85 mph. 

Live streams from the storm zone showed a devastating storm surge, which was long predicted to be the worst part of hurricane Idalia.  Reed Timmer's live stream on YouTube showed at least five feet of ocean water in Cedar Keys, Florida, with lots of debris floating in the water 

Other images showed trees being tossed by winds gusting to 100 mph.

Well south of the storm center, storm surges reached as high as seven feet in Tampa Bay, so there's probably damage to report there as well.  

Since we're still in the middle of the storm, we obviously have no idea of whether there have been any casualties, or how extensive the damage is.

Hurricane Idalia will continue plowing through northern Florida and southern Georgia today. Over land, it will be weakening, but will still pack quite a punch. Hurricane force winds are spreading across southern Georgia as lumbers on. 

Radar image of Hurricane Idalia moving inland
into northwest Florida this morning. 

Idalia, as expected, was strengthening almost all the way to the coast. Just offshore, it peaked at about 130 mph.

Then, it started going through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle. The area immediately around the central eye of a hurricane features the strongest, most destructive winds.  That circle of destructive winds is known as the eyewall. 

Very often, a strong hurricane will have a tiny, pinhole eye, but then a new eyewall forms a little further out from the center and the original eyewall disappears.  

This will cause the top winds of a hurricane to decrease a little, but also expands the area experiencing hurricane force winds.   That's why Idalia "weakened" to 120 mph at landfall. 

As a practical matter, this makes no difference in the destructive power of Idalia. It still created just as immense a storm surge as it would have had it not gone through that last minute cycle before landfall. And, as we've seen in the live streams, there's lots of damage from those hurricane force winds. 

Idalia will head eastward off the southeastern United States coast tomorrow. After that, its future is unknown, but it won't be any kind of threat to us up here in Vermont.