 |
| Close up satellite view of Hurricane Melissa's eye nearing southwestern Jamaica at dawn this morning. |
That the storm has maintained that incredible intensity since at least early yesterday afternoon is really something to dreadfully behold.
The central pressure this morning in the eye of Hurricane Melissa was 901 millibars, making it the seventh strongest hurricane on record anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean.
The updates are now coming so fast and furiously now that it's hard to keep up. But we'll give you a good idea and summary of what's going on.
THIS MORNING'S SITUATION
Winds of tropical storm strength were lashing Jamaica at dawn. Those will quickly go to hurricane force by mid to late morning ahead of an expected landfall early this afternoon.
It's going to be a brutal day in Jamaica to say the least.
Winds of 175 mph at landfall would flatten pretty much everything. There's a chance Melissa could "weaken" slightly before landfall, but as a practical matter, it won't make a difference. Winds of, say 165 mph would have pretty much the same effect as winds 10 mph higher.
To give you an idea how bad it is in there, hurricane hunter planes reportedly detected a gust to 241 mph just 700 feet off the surface offshore of Jamaica last night.
Once Melissa makes landfall, the effects of hills and mountains can make the hurricane winds locally gust to 1.5 times the overall wind speed. Meaning some pockets in the Jamaican mountains could see gusts to 250 mph. We'll never know for sure, as there are few wind gauges to measure and probably none of those gauges would survive such winds.
 |
| A wider visible satellite image of extreme Hurricane Melissa shortly after dawn today. |
The only good news is the area of hurricane force winds only extend out 30 miles or so from the eye. That means eastern Jamaica will escape the worst of the winds, but not the worst of the flooding. The water and landslides will be catastrophic island-wide.
Melissa is still moving pretty slowly, with a forward speed of just 5 mph. Most hurricanes, on average move at 10 to 15 mph.
The slow movement means the extreme rains from Melissa will linger over Jamaica, and neighboring Haiti and Dominican Republic, longer than usual for a hurricane. That would make the terrible flooding with the hurricane even worse.
I've been watching live cams from Jamaica, at least until the power goes out there. One of them shows the Flat Bridge over the Rio Cobre River in Spanish Town, Jamaica. As of around dawn, the river was a torrent, very high, muddy, full of debris. This was before the intense part of Hurricane Melissa arrived.
Imagine how bad the flooding will be after another one to three feet of rain crashes down on Jamaica today.
The advice to Jamaicans from the U.S. National Hurricane Center is still dire:
"Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flash flooding, landslides and destructive winds will continue through today, causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communications outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa's center. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of of life."
On social media, hotel guests reported they are on lockdown. They've been advised to shove mattresses against the windows and huddle behind closed doors in the bathroom during the worst of the storm.
The social media posts from Jamaica are already frightening. Virtuallywithdee on Threads, has been live posting her experiences with the storm. At 6:15 a.m. she posted:
"The updates are coming faster because I honestly can't believe what I'm seeing. The rain is pouring like someone's throwing buckets of water nonstop - the downpour is wild. Electricity is flickering in and out, and the mobile service is getting spotty. The wind is giving me chills... and she still hasn't even arrived yet."
HORRIBLE DAY AHEAD
Media reports and social media will probably go dark later this morning and stay that way for quite a while after as electricity and cell service collapses in the hardest hit areas.
I'm worried sick about the fate of Jamaicans. CNN tells us the International Federation of the Red Cross says it expects 1.5 million people - more than half of Jamaica's population - to be directly affected by Hurricane Melissa.
The worst effects will be across western Jamaica. The Capitol, Kingston is in the eastern third of the island and expects peak wind gusts of 70 to 85 mph with up to 16 inches of rain. As of 7 a.m. wind was already gusting to 59 mph in Kingston.
Montego Bay, in northwest Jamaica, should expect peak winds gusts of 100 to 140 mph and up to 20 inches of rain. Scary, indeed.
CUBA
The worst conditions in eastern Cuba should hit later today and through tonight.
In Santiago de Cuba, peak wind gusts are forecast to be in the 100 to 120 mph range, with about a foot of rain. Some nearby hillsides could see two feet of rain.
Heavy rain is already falling in Cuba and that should get worse through the day.
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
Hurricane Melissa is passing to the west of these two nations, but it's still having a catastrophic effect there, especially in Haiti. Extreme flash floods and landslides are likely there this week. Tropical storm force winds will also hit Haiti.
Several deaths have already been reported in Haiti due to flooding and landslides.
Hurricane Melissa is still forecast to smash through the southeastern Bahamas tomorrow and Thursday before heading into the open Atlantic. It could lash Bermuda with strong winds early Friday before it races into the cold northern Atlantic Ocean where it will finally die over the weekend.
No comments:
Post a Comment