Incredible October Heat Here In Vermont, And Much Of U.S. Southeast Canada; It's A Climate Change Trend

People strolling through downtown Montpelier, 
Vermont Sunday amid record October heat.
The city tied its record for hottest October
day on record. Burlington did the same.

As all of you felt it on Sunday, it was a day for the weather record books, big time here in Vermont.

And in a LOT of other places. 

The temperature reached 86 degrees in Burlington Sunday, tying the record for the hottest day for the entire month of October. 

The tie was with the record set just two years and one day day earlier, on October 4, 2023.

Montpelier also tied its all-time October record, reaching 84 degrees Sunday afternoon. Springfield and St. Johnsbury reached 85 degrees Sunday.  

Up in Quebec, all-time October records were set, too. Gatineau reached 87.4 degrees, setting the record for the hottest October temperature for the entire province of Quebec.  Montreal reached 85.8 degrees, setting a record high for the month of October, beating the 2023 record. 

Temperatures as high as 84 degrees were recorded as far north as the southern tip of Canada's James Bay. 

Further west, the heat hit the Great Lakes area on Saturday. Traverse City, Michigan hit 89 degrees, tying their record for the month of October. Other record highs included 89 in Alpena and Lansing, Michigan 88 in Ann Arbor, Michigan and 85 in Gaylord, Michigan.

Minneapolis reached 90 degrees, only the fourth time that city has reached 90 in October. As I mentioned Saturday, the hottest spot I've heard of, at least in the northern half of the U.S. is that 99 degrees Friday in Ellsworth, South Dakota. 

VERMONT OUTLOOK

The Northeast, much Quebec and other parts of southeast Canada has got another day of record warmth in store today. This, of course, includes Vermont. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a high today in Burlington of 85, which would exceed the day's record by 3 degrees. 

Montpelier's record high today is 79, and the NWS said the Capitol City could reach 85 degrees, which would break the record high for the entire month. St. Johnsbury is also forecasted to reach 85 degrees, two degrees above the previous record for the date. 

Today will be a little breezier than Sunday was, especially in the Champlain Valley. That makes the already high fire danger even worse. Today, of all days, avoid doing anything that can spark a blaze. 

Tuesday, big changes will start to happen, but it will take until afternoon to hit. 

If the clouds hold off long enough Tuesday, Burlington could reach 80 degrees again. That would make four days in a row of 80 degree temperatures, which would be the first time on record the city had that long a streak of 80 degree weather in October. 

Winds will be gusty, so the fire danger in Vermont should be sky high again. Until some glorious rain arrives. That rain should come in during the afternoon, spreading west to east across the state.

Fingers crossed, this could be a decent rainfall.  The forecast could and probably will change, but at this point southern Vermont is in for more than a half inch of rain. Northern Vermont could see an inch or maybe even a little more.

That won't by any means solve our drought problems. But we'll take any help we can get. It'll tamp down the forest fire risk for awhile. And it might be enough to slow or even temporarily stop the drought's worsening trend.

I'm getting mixed signals for rainfall beyond what we get Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some sets of forecasts keep us quite dry through around October 20 at least. Other forecasts gives us occasional bouts of light but helpful rain through that period. 

If we get lucky, a coastal storm poised to dump heavy rain along the Mid-Atlantic Coast this weekend might come close enough to give Vermont a little more light rain. Not sure yet, but it's worth hoping for.

Another thing: Tuesday's cold front means business. It will bring the chilliest air of the season so far. It won't be anything odd for October, not at all. But it will come as a shock to the system after this summer weather. Many places in Vermont that escaped frosts and freezes so far this autumn won't be so lucky this time. 

HEAT IN PERSPECTIVE

This heat wave is easily one of the most extreme North American off-season warm spells I can remember. It stretched through the entire northern half of the U.S. from the Rockies east, and encompassed much of southern Canada. 

The only hot spell I can think of that was even more wild came in March, 2012, when a huge area covering the central and northern Plains, the Great Lakes region, the Northeast, including Vermont and southern Canada saw several days of record highs in the 80s. Which is incredible for that time of year.

Yes, climate change is making record warm spells more frequent and more extreme. And it's making record cold spells less frequent. 

If the climate hadn't changed, the number of record highs and lows would be roughly equal. The climate change disparity in Burlington, Vermont is even more extreme than many other cities.

By my count,51 daily record highs have been tied or broken since January, 2020. In that time, there was only one record low. 

Records for hottest temperatures for the entire month should be pretty rare, maybe coming once a decade or so.  The data in Burlington goes all the way back to 1884. But just since 1995, we've had 11 monthly highs either tied or broken. The last time a monthly record low was tied was in 1986 and the last time one was broken was in 1979.

So, we have another weird hot spell under way. It's one of many we've had in recent years and one of many we're going to have. If you think Vermont beach weather in October is weird, you are going to see even more bizarre weather stuff in the years and decades ahead.