Nor'easter Now Battering East Coast, To Worsen Later Today, Monday. Causing Vermont Fire Weather Concerns

The center of our nor'easter is off the coast of North
Carolina, but that big sweep of clouds across
the East Coast is where strong northeast winds
are pushing Atlantic Ocean water ashore, 
causing a lot of coastal flooding. 

 The big nor'easter, as expected, is battering the East Coast this morning, but the worst of the damage will wait until this afternoon, overnight and Monday to peak. 

The highest storm surges in the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the Northeast are expected this afternoon, and especially overnight and Monday. Major flooding and horrible beach erosion are in the forecast, and damage to lots of shoreline homes and businesses is inevitable. 

Up here in Green Mountain State, the storm will oddly raise the risk of forest fires today, at least for a brief window in time. More on that below, in the "Vermont Effects" section.

WHY IT'S BAD

The center of the storm was just off the coast of southeast North Carolina this morning. The actual storm will only make it as far north as a point off Virginia coast by tomorrow. But strong high pressure in Quebec, combined with the storm, is setting up a long fetch of east winds off the Atlantic Ocean in a large area north of the storm  

That's what's pushing all the water into the Eastern Seaboard, with destructive results. The fact the storm is moving so slowly is a big part of the problem. That means water will keep getting pushed into the shore, so each successive tide is higher. 

 Water won't be able to properly drain from bays and estuaries between high tides, so flooding will keep getting worse until the storm weakens and moves further offshore on Tuesday. 

At Cape May, New Jersey, they're expecting the tide to reach 8.3 feet, which would be their third highest on record. Atlantic City, New Jersey expects a level of 8 feet, the highest since Superstorm Sandy. Atlantic City starts to consider mandatory evacuations at 8 feet, so stay tuned on that. 

The long-duration event means that trouble will last through several high tide cycles. That means beach erosion and coastal dune destruction will be much worse than you'd see in a storm that's moving along at at a decent, normal pace. 

DAMAGE ALREADY STARTING

These two houses in Buxton, North Carolina, pictured
Saturday are at risk of falling into the ocean during
this nor'easter. Nine other houses fell into the ocean
amid high waves last week.

The storm is not at its crescendo yet, and it's already causing damage. 

On the Outer Banks of North Carolina, winds have already gusted as high as 61 mph. Parts of Route 12, the main route through there, are closed because of over wash from the ocean. Nine homes fell into the sea there recently due to battering waves from offshore hurricanes. 

There's no word yet on whether any other homes have fallen yet with this storm, but video showed houses in Buxton and Rodanthe, North Carolina being battered by storm surges and waves. 

Tides reached to three feet above average in Charleston, South Carolina, flooding many downtown and residential streets with water. 

The storm will probably disrupt air travel along the East Coast. Airline schedules are already rickety because the government shutdown is prompting protests from air traffic controllers who are not getting paid. Some of those controllers are calling in "sick" in protest, which is causing flight delays even before you factor in stormy weather.

I'm sure we'll have updates as the storm progresses.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Rainfall predictions in Vermont with this nor'easter are
mostly  unchanged, with near an inch in the southeast
corner ranging down to very little up near
the Canadian border, 

Nor'easters affect Vermont all the time, but this is the first time I've heard of one increasing the fire forest fire hazard. Until now. Things are weird with the weather around here, and this is another example.  

As the storm gets going, and strong high pressure to the north hangs on, east winds will increase, mostly in southern Vermont.   Despite the rain we had last week, it's still really dry. We're in a drought, after all. 

Given how dry it is, those winds could really spread brush fires if they get going.  Especially as those winds are forecast to reach 30 mph or so in many areas of southern Vermont. 

The winds will be a little lighter in northern parts of the state but they'll still be noticeable. The humidity will be lower in northern Vermont, so that will aggravate the fire risk there. Today will be sunnier than first thought, too, as the increase in clouds and humidity is coming in later originally planned. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates the fire danger today as very high. 

Our nor'easter is still expected to spread rain into Vermont, but how much is the question. The forest fire danger in southern Vermont will get tamped down - at least temporarily - starting this evening when rain moves in. 

The rain will spread northward overnight and on Monday. But meteorologists still think the dry, big high pressure area to the north will feed in so much dry air that it will evaporate and overwhelm the moisture heading our way. 

The end result is forecast rainfall hasn't changed much since yesterday's forecast, despite the tricky nature of predicting the northern edge of a coastal storm. Forecasters are going for around an inch in far southeast Vermont, which will be very helpful there. 

Amounts will taper off to perhaps a half inch in central Vermont and just a tenth of an inch near the Canadian border, if that. I wouldn't be surprised if places like St. Albans, Highgate and Newport get nothing at all.  I also wouldn't be surprised if rainfall totals anywhere in Vermont come out different than forecast. 

After a mild afternoon today, it will turn cooler again. Clouds will hold temperatures down into the 50s tomorrow. Dry north winds during the rest of the week will keep things cool, too. At least through Friday. 

After this storm disappears by Tuesday morning, I don't see a chance of any further rain in Vermont other than light showers at least until next Monday. 

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