Storm Goretti Blasts Europe With Extreme Winds, Snow After A Week Of Wintry Weather

Satellite view of Storm Goretti, centered over southwestern
England in this satellite photo. After a week of wintry
European weather, this storm is causing winds gusting
to 100 mph in spots, heavy snow and other dangers. 

 While we here in Vermont get a brief break from hard core winter, the nasty cold of the Arctic has shifted into Europe for awhile. 

Stormy, cold and often snowy weather has engulfed much of western Europe. As of Wednesday, six deaths had been reported as the rough weather continued to intensify. 

The latest problem is Storm Goretti, which has evolved into a rapidly intensifying "bomb cyclone."  It's causing, and in other areas threatening to cause damaging winds and deep snows in the United Kingdom and other areas of western Europe. 

The British Met Office, which is the government meteorological agency has issued a red severe weather warning, its more dire alert, for the Isle of Scilly and Cornwall, were wind gusts of 100 mph are expected. 

Winds have already gusted to 99 mph at St. Mary's Airport on the Isles of Scilly, which is a new record for the site

Gusts to 60 mph were expected across the rest of southern England and parts of southwestern Wales. Up to a foot of snow might fall on higher elevations in Wales and the Peak District. 

Forecasters warned of roof, tree and power line damage, along with large, battering waves along the coast. 

France's northwestern Manche District, which borders the English Channel is also expecting gusts to 100 mph. 

Schools were closed and people were told not to drive as the storm tears through northern France. 

Storm Goretti will then make its way to Germany and surrounding nations by tomorrow. Parts of Germany are expecting six inches of snow in the north, and icy weather in the south. Schools win swaths of Germany are closed Friday. 

BEFORE GORETTI

Even before this storm, western Europe's weather took a sharp turn to winter harshness as the new year of 2026 clicked in.

Amsterdams's Schiphol Airport, one of the busiest airline hubs in Europe had more than 500 flights canceled on Wednesday. More than 1,000 people had to spend the night in the terminal. At least it was better than what would happen in the U.S.  Schiphol airport staff set up camp beds and provided breakfast to people who couldn't immediately leave. 

The bad weather extended into France where more than 100 flights at the Charles de Gaulle Airport were canceled on Wednesday. Bus served in Paris was suspended due to icy roads. 

 In England, there had already been some notable weather related road crashes even before the worst of the weather arrived. A bus in Kent ended up in a ditch and a school bus full of kids crashed into another bus in Reading. It doesn't look like there were serious injuries. 

In Rome, weeks of cold rain that have swollen the Tiber River over its banks again muted Pope Leo XIV’s Christmas-time celebrations. St. Peter’s Square was only partially full Tuesday as a few thousand people crowded under colorful umbrellas to hear Leo deliver his Epiphany blessing from the loggia of St. Peter’s Basilica.

Rome has been soaked by steady rains since before Christmas, and Mayor Roberto Gualtieri issued an ordinance for Tuesday limiting public access to parks and other areas at risk for falling trees and flooding.

In Sarajevo, Bosnia, a woman was killed when a large, snow-laden branch fell on her. 

The weather has even disrupted parts of Scandinavia, which is more used to rough winter weather compared to other western European nations. 

Heavy snow disrupted travel in western Sweden. Finnish diesel buses aren't starting in the morning because it's been so cold.

Contributing to this rough weather is still an Arctic or Greenland block, which tends to suppress winter cold air into the mid-latitudes of North America, Europe and Asia.  Parts of the United States were affected by this a little over a week ago. Then the cold weather sloshed to Europe in the past week.

To give you a sense of how topsy-turvy this weather pattern is, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute said the part of Norway that was above freezing was the normally super frigid Arctic archipelago of Svalbard.  

Svalbard is far north of mainland Norway, well north of the Arctic Circle  and is at about the same latitude as north-central Greenland.

Although the Greenland block does not appear ready to break down, it appears the frigid weather will tend to move away from western Europe next week and head once again toward North America. 

 

Nor'easter Now Battering East Coast, To Worsen Later Today, Monday. Causing Vermont Fire Weather Concerns

The center of our nor'easter is off the coast of North
Carolina, but that big sweep of clouds across
the East Coast is where strong northeast winds
are pushing Atlantic Ocean water ashore, 
causing a lot of coastal flooding. 

 The big nor'easter, as expected, is battering the East Coast this morning, but the worst of the damage will wait until this afternoon, overnight and Monday to peak. 

The highest storm surges in the Mid-Atlantic states and parts of the Northeast are expected this afternoon, and especially overnight and Monday. Major flooding and horrible beach erosion are in the forecast, and damage to lots of shoreline homes and businesses is inevitable. 

Up here in Green Mountain State, the storm will oddly raise the risk of forest fires today, at least for a brief window in time. More on that below, in the "Vermont Effects" section.

WHY IT'S BAD

The center of the storm was just off the coast of southeast North Carolina this morning. The actual storm will only make it as far north as a point off Virginia coast by tomorrow. But strong high pressure in Quebec, combined with the storm, is setting up a long fetch of east winds off the Atlantic Ocean in a large area north of the storm  

That's what's pushing all the water into the Eastern Seaboard, with destructive results. The fact the storm is moving so slowly is a big part of the problem. That means water will keep getting pushed into the shore, so each successive tide is higher. 

 Water won't be able to properly drain from bays and estuaries between high tides, so flooding will keep getting worse until the storm weakens and moves further offshore on Tuesday. 

At Cape May, New Jersey, they're expecting the tide to reach 8.3 feet, which would be their third highest on record. Atlantic City, New Jersey expects a level of 8 feet, the highest since Superstorm Sandy. Atlantic City starts to consider mandatory evacuations at 8 feet, so stay tuned on that. 

The long-duration event means that trouble will last through several high tide cycles. That means beach erosion and coastal dune destruction will be much worse than you'd see in a storm that's moving along at at a decent, normal pace. 

DAMAGE ALREADY STARTING

These two houses in Buxton, North Carolina, pictured
Saturday are at risk of falling into the ocean during
this nor'easter. Nine other houses fell into the ocean
amid high waves last week.

The storm is not at its crescendo yet, and it's already causing damage. 

On the Outer Banks of North Carolina, winds have already gusted as high as 61 mph. Parts of Route 12, the main route through there, are closed because of over wash from the ocean. Nine homes fell into the sea there recently due to battering waves from offshore hurricanes. 

There's no word yet on whether any other homes have fallen yet with this storm, but video showed houses in Buxton and Rodanthe, North Carolina being battered by storm surges and waves. 

Tides reached to three feet above average in Charleston, South Carolina, flooding many downtown and residential streets with water. 

The storm will probably disrupt air travel along the East Coast. Airline schedules are already rickety because the government shutdown is prompting protests from air traffic controllers who are not getting paid. Some of those controllers are calling in "sick" in protest, which is causing flight delays even before you factor in stormy weather.

I'm sure we'll have updates as the storm progresses.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Rainfall predictions in Vermont with this nor'easter are
mostly  unchanged, with near an inch in the southeast
corner ranging down to very little up near
the Canadian border, 

Nor'easters affect Vermont all the time, but this is the first time I've heard of one increasing the fire forest fire hazard. Until now. Things are weird with the weather around here, and this is another example.  

As the storm gets going, and strong high pressure to the north hangs on, east winds will increase, mostly in southern Vermont.   Despite the rain we had last week, it's still really dry. We're in a drought, after all. 

Given how dry it is, those winds could really spread brush fires if they get going.  Especially as those winds are forecast to reach 30 mph or so in many areas of southern Vermont. 

The winds will be a little lighter in northern parts of the state but they'll still be noticeable. The humidity will be lower in northern Vermont, so that will aggravate the fire risk there. Today will be sunnier than first thought, too, as the increase in clouds and humidity is coming in later originally planned. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates the fire danger today as very high. 

Our nor'easter is still expected to spread rain into Vermont, but how much is the question. The forest fire danger in southern Vermont will get tamped down - at least temporarily - starting this evening when rain moves in. 

The rain will spread northward overnight and on Monday. But meteorologists still think the dry, big high pressure area to the north will feed in so much dry air that it will evaporate and overwhelm the moisture heading our way. 

The end result is forecast rainfall hasn't changed much since yesterday's forecast, despite the tricky nature of predicting the northern edge of a coastal storm. Forecasters are going for around an inch in far southeast Vermont, which will be very helpful there. 

Amounts will taper off to perhaps a half inch in central Vermont and just a tenth of an inch near the Canadian border, if that. I wouldn't be surprised if places like St. Albans, Highgate and Newport get nothing at all.  I also wouldn't be surprised if rainfall totals anywhere in Vermont come out different than forecast. 

After a mild afternoon today, it will turn cooler again. Clouds will hold temperatures down into the 50s tomorrow. Dry north winds during the rest of the week will keep things cool, too. At least through Friday. 

After this storm disappears by Tuesday morning, I don't see a chance of any further rain in Vermont other than light showers at least until next Monday. 

. 

 

Nor'easter Could Worsen North Carolina House Collapses As Coastal Flood Alerts Go Up Along East Coast

Clouds near and off the southeast U.S. coast, 
especially near Florida, are the beginning stages of
a big nor'easter that will cause destructive
coastal flooding and storm surges up 
and down the East Coast 

The East Coast is bracing for an early season nor'easter that threatens coastal flooding up and down the Eastern Seaboard. 

The storm is widely forecast  to create coastal flooding and battering waves from Florida to New England. 

Seasonal king tides that make those tides higher than most other times of the year are already causing some nuisance flooding along the coast. 

That never used to happen during king tides, but the sea level is up now due to climate change, so now many coastal areas endure "sunny day" flooding.

Now, this big nor'easter is looming. It will add a ton of water to those king tides, ensuring that much of the shoreline in the East will not look the same next week as it does now. 

 The only bright side is the peak of the king tides will be beginning to pass by the time the storm gets its act together. 

The storm has all the ingredients to cause havoc. It will be slow moving and strong. It will create intense east winds that will shove water into the bays and estuaries up and down the East Coast. That has the potential to cause major tidal flooding. 

The powerful winds will stir up huge waves that will smack into shorelines. They'll make the swells generated by offshore hurricanes this summer and fall look like child's play. 

In some places, the storm surges could almost rival the destruction from Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

The slow movement of the storm will ensure the battering waves will hit during multiple high tide cycles, causing serious beach erosion. 

Forecasters expect coastal roads going under water, severe erosion of sand dunes, structural damage and evacuation. 

Perhaps the most threatened spot is North Carolina, where offshore hurricanes last week caused a total of nine homes to topple into the water.

After those storms, the Outer Banks of North Carolina are especially vulnerable to new damage. Local residents expect more homes to fall into the water. 

The storms last week have already pushed back the coastline in North Carolina a lot, considering it was just one event.  

Per WRAL:

"Researchers with RCOAST, a coastal resilience startup based in North Carolina, mapped the area...using 3D scanners and drones. Preliminary analysis found the average shoreline retreat was 68 feet, with some stretches losing up to 141 feet of beach. 3D mapping shows over wash from the storms pushed sand as far as 298 feet inland"

That means homes that were once safe from storm tides no longer are.  

The nine houses that have already falle  into the water were built between 1973 and 1998 had a combined assessed value of more than $5 million.  When they were built, they were behind the sand dunes and not prone to battering waves. But repeated storms shifted the barrier islands, aided by rising sea levels. 

The nor'easter is forecast to bring several inches of rain to many areas near the East Coast, and that rain will be driven by wind gusts exceeding 60 mph and 50 mph just inland.  But the main damage will be to the shorelines. 

Though this will not be a tropical storm, it will have some characteristics of one. That fact could enhance rainfall and potentially cause even stronger winds. 

The effects of this storm start today along the east coast of Florida and other parts of the Southeast. The storm should intensify as it slowly crawls north. The worst of the storm in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will likely hit on Sunday and Monday .

Storms such as this nor'easter have more destructive power than similar storms years ago because sea levels are higher due to climate change. Shorelines south of New England are quite flat, so a little big of sea level rise can have effects surprisingly far inland. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Unlike on the coastline, the storm will cause more good and harm in the Green Mountain State, but it's still unclear to what extent it will affect us. 

The storm will want to head north toward us, at least for awhile. But yet another strong, dry, high pressure system over Quebec will block it.  The storm will only get so far north, then get deflected back south and east.

That's why we're in this drought. The weather pattern since early August has featured these arid high pressure areas that block storms and moisture from reaching us. 

The early consensus is the storm will have enough oomph to spread rain into at least southern Vermont. How much is the question, but early guesses are the rain could end up being beneficial. Not nearly enough to end the drought, but enough to take a tiny step toward easing it. 

If we get lucky, far southern Vermont could see more than an inch of rain between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday morning. 

The further north you get the less rain you'll see. The Quebec high pressure will be feeding dry air into northern Vermont as the nor'easter tried to send moisture north. The end result could be much of the rain evaporating before it hits the ground. 

Still, for now, up to a quarter inch of rain could fall. That's not much, but we'll take anything we can get.

I'll emphasize these are all educated guesses for now. The computer models are all over the place with how much the nor'easter will affect northern New England. 

The least likely scenario is that we get nailed with heavy rain. Don't get your hopes up for that one. It's possible the north will get no rain, too.

Note that there's will be a huge difference in air pressure between the strong high in Quebec and the nor'easter to our south. 

That could set up the southern Green Mountains for some strong gusty winds toward Sunday and Monday. Nor'easters can cause strong downslope winds on the western slopes of the mountains. That could be the case with this storm Sunday night and Monday. 

The strong winds are expected to avoid the northern Green Mountains.  

Thursday Afternoon Erin Update: Coastlines Keep Getting Battered As Storm Begins To Move Away

Hurricane Erin well off the East Coast this afternoon.
It's still huge in size

Hurricane Erin has been doing its dirty work from a distance, as expected. 

It has stayed more than 200 miles offshore of North Carolina on its closest approach earlier today. It's now heading further away, heading northeast out to sea.   

At 5 p.m. Hurricane Erin was about 370 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and booking it northeastward. Top winds were 100 mph, but a weakening trend has started. 

Even so, tides, storm surges and battering waves are continuing along the East Coast. We've been talking about the storm's immense size, and that's what is driving coastal residents batty from Miami to St. John's, Newfoundland. 

The problem isn't going away soon. 

In a number of areas along the East Coast some of the worst surges and waves will hit with this evening's high tide. 

Tropical storm and storm surge warnings were still in effect this afternoon in North Carolina. Coastal flood warnings are in effect until Saturday in New Jersey, with the highest tide of them all expected this evening

Tides at Cape May, New Jersey and Lewes, Delaware are forecast to be the highest since an intense winter nor'easter in 2016, Texas meteorologist and hurricane expert Matt Lanza said,

All the way up into New England, coastal flood, high surf and wind advisories are flying through tomorrow at least. In addition to the rough water, winds in places like Block Island, Nantucket and Provincetown could gust to 50 mph. 

Basically all beaches along the U.S. East Coast are closed to swimming because the waves and rip currents are too dangerous. We don't know when they will all reopen. It depends on when the seas calm down. 

The process might be slow. Even as Erin departs, a new tropical system seems to want to form hot on the hurricane's heels. The new storm will not be nearly as strong or as huge as Erin, but it will probably keep seas agitated all the way to the East Coast. 

The epicenter of the East Coast Erin chaos was - as everybody anticipated - Cape Hatteras/The Outer Banks of North Carolina.  The only way in or out is Route 12 and that shut down  because of water, deep sand washed onto the road and debris, according to Dare County, North Carolina officials.

I haven't seen news yet that the two houses most vulnerable to collapsing into the sea at Rodanthe, North Carolina have actually done so, but the event is still ongoing. Media reports this afternoon described the houses as "on the verge of collapse."

There's also lots of images of flooded streets, and waves eroding dunes or blasting beneath houses perched on pilings. 

The winds weren't too bad out on Cape Hatteras, all things considered. The highest gusts at Hatteras Mitchell Field at 43 mph. Only 0.03 inches of rain fell there. A U.S. Coast Guard station in Hatteras reported a gust of 53 mph. 

Lanza, the Texas meteorologists, also found an interesting and dangerous effect of Hurricane Erin up in Canada. It's super dry in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. 

High pressure on the northwest flank of hurricanes usually has very dry air and that's the case up in Atlantic Canada. The contrast between that high pressure and offshore Erin is producing gusty winds up there, so now the fire danger is quite high. 

Even here in the Green Mountain State, that same dry high pressure, the recent lack of rain and northeast breezes created in part by distance Erin have created yet another day of high fire danger in Vermont. 

Don't Be Fooled By Hurricane Erin's "Weakening" East Coast. It's Now Gaining A Little And Shoreline Still In For A Battering

Hurricane Erin of the Southeast U.S. coast this 
morning. Its classic symmetrical shape and eye are
a sign it has a chance to keep restrengthening for
awhile as it passed by North Carolina. 

As of late this morning, Hurricane Erin has stopped its slow strength decline and is starting to gain wind speed again. 

At 11 a.m, top winds were at 110 mph, which is reversal from a trend we saw Tuesday. 

Erin's top wind speed has slowly been winding down. Top winds were at 125 mph Tuesday morning, 110 mph by noon yesterday, 105 mph last evening and 100 mph early this morning .

The central air pressure of Erin, which had been rising, is now falling, another sign that it's beginning to strengthen again. 

Strong upper level winds and a gulp of dry air were disrupting Erin on Tuesday, which led to its weakening trend.

Those strong upper level winds have waned and Hurricane Erin began regaining its organization overnight and early today. 

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center think Erin will continue restrengthening today, probably achieving top winds of 120 mph off the southeastern United States coast. 

Starting tomorrow morning, upper level winds over Erin will get strong again, so the storm should start weakening again as accelerates northeastward in the open Atlantic far off the coasts of New England and Nova Scotia Thursday and Friday.  

Whether it gets stronger or not, or by how much is sort of besides the point. The storm is so large in size that it's generated a lot of big waves that have already started crashing into the U.S. East Coast.  Dangerous ocean waves are extending 1,000 or so miles from Hurricane Erin's center. 

U,S, COASTLINE BATTERING

Even though Erin is staying far offshore tropical storm force winds - 39 mph or more - extend 265 miles from the hurricane's center. That means places like the Outer Banks of North Carolina and  probably Cape Cod and the islands in Massachusetts will have those winds, even though the storm will stay far offshore. 

A dozen East Coast states have some sort of advisory or warning regarding Hurricane Erin, Tropical storm and coastal flood warnings are in effect for the shores of  North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.  

The main United States focus is on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, where water started washing over Route 12 at high tide Tuesday - far in advance of Hurricane Erin. Route 12 is basically the only way on or off the Outer Banks.  The overwash, storm surge flooding and huge waves on the Outer Banks gets worse with every high tide cycle as Erin approaches, and will peak tomorrow.

Once Route 12 is blocked, it could take days to clear enough sand and do enough repairs to make the road passable, 

Charleston, South Carolina is another trouble spot, which might be surprising since Hurricane Erin will miss that city by such a wide margin.  But due to sea level rise due to climate change, the Charleston area now floods frequently in storms.

High tide in Charleston today is forecast to bring moderate, almost borderline major coastal flooding. 

Further north above the Outer Banks, pretty substantial coastal flooding is expected in resort towns like Virginia Beach, Virginia, Ocean City, Maryland, Bethany and Rohoboth beaches in Delaware and the Jersey Shore.

In all these areas, coastal roads will become impassable and officials are worried about damage to vulnerable structures. To nobody's surprise, beaches are closed to swimmers. Even before Erin, the Jersey Shore has endured several incidents. Just last week, one person died and six others were rescued amid rip tides in Seaside Heights, New Jersey.

In Massachusetts,  Nantucket officials said all beaches on the island's south shore are now closed because of dangerous surf and rip currents caused by Hurricane Erin. Locals told reporters Tuesday the water was already too rough to safely swim in, 

Rough seas and some coastal problems are likely in Atlantic Canada late this week and the weekend. By Monday or Tuesday, Erin will be in the North Atlantic and transition to a non-tropical system that could cause problems in Ireland by Tuesday. 

 OTHER STORMS

The National Hurricane Center is watching two other areas in the Atlantic Ocean that could develop into tropical storms. 

One disturbance is roughly following Erin's path and could develop into a tropical depression or storm north of the northern Leeward Islands.  Early indications are this storm, if it develops, will curve northward in the Atlantic and miss the United States by a wide margin. 

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At the moment at least, if this thing develops into a tropical storm, it could be short-lived as strong upper level winds wreck it.

But even after those winds break it apart, this disturbance could eventually redevelop closer to the Caribbean in a week or two 

 

Hurricane Milton Departed Florida Early This Morning, Leaving An Incredible Mess Behind

The fury and intense rains of Hurricane Milton in
Tampa, Florida last night. Photo by Julio Cortez AP

To nobody's surprise, much of Florida is trashed this morning, raked by powerful Hurricane Milton which crossed the state west to east overnight. 

The hurricane made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, a barrier island just off the coast of South Sarasota, at around 8:30 p.m. Wednesday with top winds of 120 mph.  

It exited into the Atlantic Ocean near Cape Canaveral with top winds of around 85 mph shortly before 5 a.m. today. 

It was simultaneously horrifying and fascinating to watch events unfold in Florida as Hurricane Milton approached the state, moved ashore, then through the peninsula. 

We're only just beginning to understand the extent of damage, and we don't have a reliable death toll yet, but we do know Hurricane Milton proved fatal to some people. 

At least 3 million homes were without power this morning in Florida.

There's a lot going on and a lot of updates. I'll get to some of them in this morning's post and will do more posts today as warranted .

TAMPA/ST. PETE

There was good news and bad news as the events unfolded, and sometimes good news turned into bad news. 

A few hours before landfall, it appeared Hurricane Milton might hit near Tampa Bay, which would have caused a worst case scenario storm surge in the bay, which is surrounded by intense urban development. 

Shortly before landfall, Milton made a leftward jog, so it made landfall perhaps 25 miles south of Tampa, preventing much of a storm surge in the bay.   

However, that put Tampa and St. Petersburg in the most intense northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton, which gave them a ferocious windstorm and an even more intense wall of rainfall. They never got a break from the eye of the storm, either, because that passed to the south of the two cities. 

Tampa had close to a foot of rain with Milton. St. Petersburg reported a whopping 18.54 inches.  At 9 p.m., St. Petersburg reported winds of 49 mph gusting to 91 mph with 5.09 inches of rain in just the previous hour. 

Video from downtown Tampa showed absolutely zero visibility it was raining so hard. By my estimation, visibility would be better in the most intense Vermont blizzard you can imagine than it was in Tampa, because it was raining so hard. 

As you can guess, flooding is incredibly serious in and near Tampa and St. Petersburg, despite the lack of a major storm surge. 

The roof of Tropicana Field in Tampa blew off. The stadium
had been being used as a staging area for National 
Guard troops and electrical repair crews. 

There heavy rain crossed the entire state to the Atlantic Coast, where Vero Beach reported 9.1 inches of rain. 

.In downtown St. Petersburg, a large crane from a construction site fell onto a building housing the Tampa Bay Times newspaper.

Max Chesnes, a reporter at the paper, posted on X:

"A crane is blocking the road and several stories up, smoke billows out of the building from it appears the crane fell. Smell of gas in the air and you can hear alarms."

The roof of Tropicana Field which normally houses the Tampa Bay Rays blew off.  The structure was meant to be a shelter and staging area for National Guard troops and electrical workers who are in the area to help and to start restoring power. Nobody was seriously hurt, but I'm unsure what they're going to do now with these workers. 

SARASOTA AND ELSEWHERE

In Sarasota, winds gusted to 102 mph. The wind was strongest in the second half of the storm, after the eye had passed. Windows were smashed out of high rises by the wind in downtown Sarasota and Bradenton, so there has to be incredible water damage inside those buildings from all the wind driven rain that came in. 

Near where Hurricane Milton made landfall and points south, there was some pretty horrible storm surges. That was something that forecasters had expected, but it's terrible nonetheless. 

As of early this morning, I don't have a lot of information on storm surge damage. That was going to be assessed as daylight arrived, so detailed reports weren't in yet as of 7:30 a.m today. 

We do know that in Sarasota, right after the calm eye passed, winds picked up to those near 100 mph gusts and a storm surge immediately shoved into the city, including at least parts of downtown. NBC News reported a ten foot storm surge around Sarasota. 

Wind and water have since calmed down almost completely in Sarasota, but the county government is continuing to tell people to shelter in place, as it's still to dangerous to go out with all the debris and lingering flooding. 

Rescue crews were just beginning to head out to likely devastated barrier islands and low lying area of Bradenton, Sarasota, Venice, Punta Gorda, Fort Myers and other communities likely slammed by storm surges. 

 Another odd thing about Hurricane Milton was the intense tornado outbreak during the day Wednesday as the storm's outer rain bands moved through.  There were no fewer than 136 tornado warnings issued in Florida Wednesday. So far at least 45 tornadoes have been confirmed. 

Some of the them were strong, Midwestern-style twisters that caused a lot of damage and reportedly caused some deaths in a neighborhood near Fort Pierce.

As noted, assessments of how bad things got were only just beginning this morning. I'm hoping as we learn more details it turns out to be not as bad as feared. Fingers crossed.  

Hurricane Milton Evening Update: It's Striking Florida Now, With Still Some Uncertainties

Satellite view of Hurricane Milton around 6 p.m. today
on final approach toward landfall on Florida's 
Gulf Coast. Conditions were already super rough there.e 

As of late this afternoon, Hurricane Milton was on final approach to the west coast of Florida.

We still know it's going to be bad, but even though the eye of the storm is close by, there's still questions as to how bad and where.  

At 5 p.m. Hurricane Milton was centered only about 60 miles west, southwest of Sarasota, Florida. Top winds were down to 120 mph. It could either be a Category 3 storm at landfall with winds of between 111 to 129 mph, or a Category 2 with winds of 96 to 110 mph.

Even if it's a Category 2, that definition is misleading in this case. Since Hurricane Milton was so incredibly strong over the past couple of days, it's mustering up a much bigger storm surge than most hurricanes of that strength.

Plus, as anticipated, the hurricane is getting larger. Tropical storm force winds extend out 255 miles from the center and have enveloped much of western Florida. As of 5 p.m. winds were gusting to 62 or 63 mph in some spots along the immediate coast. 

Gusts in Sarasota increased from 48 mph at 5 p.m. to 60 mph at 6 p.m. 

A couple of last minute twists have entered the picture with this hurricane. 

First of all, it was supposed to slow down, delaying landfall until midnight or a little after. It didn't slow down. At least not yet. Landfall now looks like it will hit between 9 and 11 p.m.  It's really too late for people to flee now, and the worst of it will come even sooner than I imagine some people planned.

The National Hurricane Center said those living in areas with the anticipated strongest winds should take shelter in interior rooms away from windows. The strongest winds will be near and just to the north of the eye when it comes ashore. 

STORM SURGE

The storm surge forecast continues to look complicated. Contrary to some messages I've seen, Tampa Bay is still in play for a possible cataclysmic storm surge. 

Hurricane expert Bryan Norcross noted on Fox Weather late this afternoon that the center of Milton was a little north of a lot of the forecasting guidance. That raised the possibility that the center of the hurricane could crash right into Tampa Bay instead of blowing by a short distance to the south. 

That would open things up for a devastating storm surge there.  Forecasters still think the worst storm surge will probably be near Bradenton and Sarasota, and the barrier islands offshore of those communities. 

Screen grab of video at 6 p.m shows storm surge
already inundating Fort Myers Beach, Florida
with Hurricane Milton still offshore. 

The orientation of Hurricane Milton when it comes ashore will mean there will be huge differences in storm surge heights over short distances, the National Hurricane Center noted. 

 Since the hurricane will be so close to Tampa Bay when it comes ashore, it'll make the storm surge in that area especially unpredictable.

The initial rush of wind and water would slam into the bay, but then strong east winds might blow water westward.  It's a crapshoot, so everybody who was under evacuation orders should have left. Even if a few lucky places don't get much of a storm surge. Because we don't know who those lucky people will be, if they end up existing at all. 

The bottom line is, just a difference of a few miles in the eventual path of Hurricane Milton will make an enormous difference as to what happens in Tampa Bay. 

Winds ahead of landfall are coming from the east, so that's keeping some of the storm surge away. But as the hurricane comes ashore, the wind and waves will shift abruptly, coming from the west. That storm surge will smash through coastal towns, cities and neighborhoods with alarming, deadly force speed. 

Another complication is the timing of high tide tonight. 

Complicating matters even more is the timing of today's high tides. High tides in most of the greatest threat zone are before dawn Thursday, so it looks like the incoming tide could work in concert with the storm surge. We shall see.  

OTHER HAZARDS

Tornado warnings are still flying in parts of Florida, and that risk will continue the rest of the night.  On top of the hurricane warnings, flash flood warnings are now in effect along the path of the storm, especially in places like Sarasota and Tampa as torrential rains are now ripping through. 

The damage is just beginning, and we won't have much of an idea of how bad the damage will be, and how many people will die for a few days at least. 

I've already seen some potential Florida Darwin Award winners on television, including a car seen heading out to the extremely vulnerable barrier islands off the coast of Sarasota or Bradenton. This, with landfall coming very soon. 

The storm will be out of Florida by this time tomorrow. Its departure can't come a moment too soon. 

 

Florida Weather Now Deteriorating As Ferocious Hurricane Milton Aims At Late Night Landfall

Dawn breaking on Hurricane Milton this morning in
this visible satellite photo. As you can see, it's nearing
Florida, and nothing has changed about the dread
of how powerful this thing will be when it hits. 

 Early this morning, the weather was already getting lousy - and in a couple instances dangerous - as the influence of powerful Hurricane Milton begin to overspread Florida.  

Things will get worse and worse through the day and evening in advance of the big blow we've been nervously anticipating. 

No miracles happened overnight. Hurricane Milton maintained its Category 5 strength as it makes its way toward Florida. 

The overall forecast hasn't really changed for the past three days and it hasn't changed this morning. Winds won't be 160 mph at landfall - they'll be slightly less than that. 

But that slightly less intense wind doesn't matter at all.  This will very likely be one of the worst hurricanes in Florida's history, which is saying something. The Sunshine State has a long history of incredibly deadly, destructive storms. 

Those historic storms range from the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 which killed more than 400 people in and near the Florida Keys, to Hurricane Andrew in 1992, which decimated towns south of Miami and killed more than 60 people, to Hurricane Michael in 2018, which pretty much leveled Mexico Beach, Florida and surrounding communities, but people got out of the way of that storm, so the death toll was limited to 16.

I'm hoping everybody is out of the way of Milton before it gets to Florida. Stragglers have maybe a few hours to flee this morning, but even that is iffy. 

MILTON'S MORNING STATUS

At 4 a.m. Hurricane Milton still had top winds of 160 mph. It was about 300 miles southwest of Tampa and heading toward the northeast at 14 miles per hour. Its forward speed is expected to increase during the day today. 

Those winds decreased ever so slightly to 155 mph by 8 a.m. but that really doesn't make much of a difference as to what's going to happen. 

Tropical storm force winds extended outward 125 miles from the center of Hurricane Milton, and that wind field is forecast to get larger today. That means it won't be all that long before tropical storm force winds and the start of storm surges will hit the Florida Gulf Coast. Those gusty, strong winds will probably be on the coast by early afternoon. 

Trouble is also brewing well ahead of Hurricane Milton.  

Ominously, there has already been reports of minor storm surge flooding along parts of the Florida Gulf Coast. So imagine how bad things will get when the hurricane arrives tonight. 

Outer rainbands and outflow storms from the hurricane are already moving into Florida, setting up a situation where tornadoes can develop.  A tornado warning was already in effect for a time after 7 a.m. today east of Fort Myers. 

As the rain bands become more forceful this afternoon, some of the thunderstorms will break up into individual supercells this afternoon, which have the potential to spin off tornadoes, a couple of which might be quite strong, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center

HEART OF THE STORM

The big trouble comes tonight, of course, as Milton is expected to crash ashore sometime around midnight, give or take.  

Everybody's talking about the storm surge, which makes sense because this would be the deadliest and most dangerous part of Hurricane Milton. 

Screen grab of video of what the Hurricane Ian storm surge
in Fort Myers Beach, Florida in 2022. Hurricane Milton's
storm surge is expected to be at least this bad, and will
hit in the dark of night, making it even more terrifying.

If - and this is a huge if - Hurricane Milton makes landfall south of Tampa, then the storm surge in parts of Tampa Bay would be not as dire as some forecast make it out to be. 

Still, it would be bad, with some eastern parts of the bay seeing 6 to as much as 12 feet of storm surge. But the potential is still there for up to 15 feet, so if you live in the Tampa Bay area and fled the hurricane, you made a very smart move. 

Even if the storm surge isn't as bad as the worst forecasts in Tampa Bay, that metro area is going to have a whole host of huge other problems caused by Hurricane Milton. I'll get into those in a bit. 

The worst storm surges will hit right where Milton comes ashore and points slightly south of that. That probably means Sarasota and the barrier islands near it.

Also, the bay that makes up Charlotte Harbor around Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda is oriented in a similar fashion to Tampa Bay. Since Charlotte Harbor is near or a little south of the expected path of Milton, water will really pile up in this bay to form an incredible destructive storm surge. 

The bottom line is the current best guess for worst storm surge will run between Bradenton and Fort Myers. Though destructive storm surges are possible north and especially south of that range.

One odd note is that a few "lucky" places north of Milton's path might end up with intense east winds that actually pull water away from the shore. Hard to say exactly where, so don't count on it. But those few spots might actually see much below normal water levels at the coast. 

Strong hurricanes tend to wobble in their paths, so Hurricane Milton could still jog north into Tampa or south toward Punta Gorda. So we have no guarantees on who gets the worst storm surge. 

To give you an idea of how terrifying storm surges like this, click on this link to watch the storm surge with Hurricane Ian at Fort Myers Beach two years ago.  If you see the  image below, click on that to watch the video. When you do, notice the house washing away and getting flattened.  The storm surge with Hurricane Milton will be at least as bad, and will come in the dark of night. You can see why you can't survive something like this. 

HIGH WINDS

The expected peak winds with Hurricane Milton could be near 130 mph at landfall. The hurricane will race across the state overnight and Thursday, spreading hurricane force winds across central Florida all the way through the Atlantic coast. 

There's going to be huge power outages, massive tree damage and structural damage coast to coast in Florida. Many people will have no electricity for weeks. This includes heavily populated areas like Tampa, Orlando, Daytona and Melbourne. 

If current forecasts hold, Tampa will end up on the northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton. Due to a weather front impinging on the northern edge of Milton, the wind should be particularly fierce in the Tampa area. Mobile homes will be completely unsafe.  Roofs will blow off homes and commercial buildings. Trees will smash into many other homes. 

FLOODING

In addition to the particularly intense winds expected around Tampa, the rain with Hurricane Milton seems likely to be the most ferocious near Tampa. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center expects a foot or more of rain in and near Tampa in a short period of time that will cause, as they put it,  "widespread and catastrophic flooding in the Tampa area tonight."

That kind of rain can't drain will from the relatively flat terrain. And any storm surges would block that runoff from entering Tampa Bay. All this means that even homes in the Tampa metro area that technically are safe from storm surges will get flooded anyway, just due to the rain and wind. 

Elsewhere across central Florida, a good 8 to 12 inches of rain is in the forecast, so the flooding will be intense there, too. 

BOTTOM LINE

All of the above is what is expected out of Hurricane Milton. As always, there will be some adjustments, some surprises, perhaps a glimmer of good news and some tragedies. 

At this point, there isn't much anybody can do to stop this or prepare. People only  have a few hours left this morning to rush their preparations to completion. 

Hurricane Helene a couple weeks ago caused more than 230 deaths, the highest toll from a United States hurricane since Katrina in 2005.  I guess all we can hope for now is that enough people have gotten out of the way of Hurricane Milton so that we don't see a full repeat of Helene's grim legacy. 

Tuesday Evening Hurricane Milton Update: Grim Monster Continues Push Toward Florida

 Hurricane Milton remains a monster. 

Visible satellite view of Hurricane Milton late Tuesday
afternoon. Click on the pic to make it bigger and easy to
see. The main central swirl around the eye looks like a buzzsaw.

After re-arranging its eye during the morning and losing just a slight bit of steam,  Hurricane Milton reasserted itself and gained almost all of its previous power. Plus, it's a larger storm now. 

As of late this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Milton was a Category 5 with top winds of 165 mph. It was 480 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida and heading in that general direction. 

Yeah, it sucks to put it mildly. 

The forecast track has shifted southward by the tiniest smidge. That raises some tentative hope that it will pass a little south of Tampa Bay. 

If that were to happen - and there is absolutely NO guarantee that it will - the storm surge in Tampa Bay would be a little less than the current dire 10 to 15 feet. But don't count on it. Plus, "a little less" is still a huge danger. 

The "cone of uncertainty," which is the zone in which Hurricane Milton could make landfall, could be as far north as a spot 60 miles north of Tampa. Remember, a path over or just north of Tampa Bay would yield the worst storm surge possible in Tampa Bay, due to the topography of the land around the bay. 

On the other hand, Hurricane Milton could come ashore as far south as Cape Coral, about 100 miles south of Tampa.  

In other words, anybody who is in an evacuation zone in Florida and hasn't left yet should flee now if not sooner. 

If this evening's projected path is spot on, it would come ashore near around metro Sarasota, which has a population of about 835,000.

Also remember that Hurricane Milton is expanding in size, and that trend will continue. As of late this afternoon, tropical force storm winds extend out 140 miles from Milton's eye. That area could double by the time Hurricane Milton is approaching Florida. 

Late Tuesday afternoon forecasts have tropical force winds of 39 mph or more, and the beginnings of a storm surge should be starting not long after noon tomorrow on Florida's Gulf Coast. It will be too late to get out of way of the storm tomorrow. 

By the time Hurricane Milton reaches the Florida coast, upper level winds and an approaching front from the north will be trying to weaken the storm. But it will be too little, too late. Top winds are forecast to be 125 mph with higher gusts at landfall..

And a last minute reduction in wind speeds won't translate to a lower storm surge. 

Often when a hurricane is beginning to weaken, the south side of the storm has the higher winds. This time, it might be the north side that has the most ferocious winds. So even if the center of Milton passes a little south of Tampa, the winds would be super destructive, even if the storm surge ends up being a little less than the more dire forecasts.

So Tampa really can't win here. 

Hurricane force winds will blast across all of central Florida coast to coast overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. 

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PEOPLE

Like I mentioned, people who did not evacuate from the storm surge area are in deep, deep trouble. 

Much like in Helene, Florida officials told people who choose not to evacuate from vulnerable areas to mark their names and date of birth on their arms with permanent marker so officials can identify their bodies later. 

Emergency managers said they were able to conduct a few water rescues in Florida during Hurricane Helene's storm surge. That won't be the case with more powerful Hurricane Milton. They told residents if don't leave by noon Wednesday, they are on their own. Nobody will come to rescue them when the water rises. 

Of course, I have to wonder about the welfare of some of the people who heeded warnings and evacuated. Some people don't have the means to evacuate from danger zones are doing. What if you don't have a car? How do you escape?  Just the cost of travel, accommodations in an evacuation can easily cost $500 or more.  A lot of  people don't have that kind of money lying around. So do they hunker down and hope for the best? 

Do people deserve to die in a hurricane for the "sin" of not having enough income?

There are shelters that have opened in public buildings on high ground for some of these storm surge refugees, but is there room for all of them?

Much of Florida is now shutting down as the storm bears down.

Tampa International Airport closed this morning. Orlando's airport shuts down tomorrow morning. Walt Disney World and Universal in Orlando as of this afternoon were staying open, perhaps unwisely, though campgrounds in wooded areas are closing for fear of falling trees.

As of this evening, nobody is allowed access to barrier islands off the southwest Florida coast.  If there are any stragglers still in homes on the barrier islands, they'll still be allowed to flee. But time is running short. 

President Biden canceled planned trips to Germany and Angola to monitor the hurricane. 

Downtown Tampa looked like a ghost town by Tuesday afternoon. The normally bustling area was almost devoid of cars and pedestrians, and businesses were either closed or shutting down operations until after the storm. 

I haven't mentioned climate change in most of these updates as I'm mostly focusing on the immediate impacts of this storm. But many aspects of Hurricane Milton are at least consistent with climate change. I'll get into that in a future post, once we catch our breath for this latest sure to be deadly and expensive calamity. 

 

Today Is Last Chance For Floridians To Flee Or Button Down From Hurricane Milton Onslaught

Screen grab of video by Jonathan Petramala of residents
jamming Tampa area freeways to flee Hurricane Milton.

 Hurricane Milton overnight has taken its expected turn toward the Northeast and is now ready for its final approach between  now and Wednesday night to strike hard against the Gulf Coast of Florida.

You're going to hear a lot about how Hurricane Milton has "weakened" or "is weakening" as it approaches the Florida coast. 

That gives a false sense of safety regarding this extremely dangerous storm.  I prefer to say that Hurricane Milton is "transforming."

We've already seen the first phase of that near-constant transformation process overnight. 

Last evening,  Hurricane Milton had incredible top winds of 185 mph surrounding a teeny tiny pinhole eye that was only maybe three or four miles across. Hurricane force winds extended out only 30 or so miles from that eye, with tropical storm force winds extending out 80 miles from the center. 

So it was an extremely powerful, but tiny storm by hurricane standards. 

By 7 a.m. today, top winds with Milton were "only" 145 mph.

Um, yay?

Not really.

Hurricane Milton was going through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle, which is extremely common with intense hurricanes. 

What happens is, the ring of intense storm and winds immediately surrounding the tiny eye of Milton began to collapse, while a new, larger ring of those intense storms began to form. This ring of chaos is called the eyewall. 

Winds might be a little lower but still intense with
Hurricane Milton this morning, but the storm is larger
in size than yesterday.  A larger storm can create
bigger storm surges.

The end result is an eye that is much larger in diameter than before.  The highest winds usually end up being a little lower after this process, sometimes only temporarily. That's because the energy and wind distribution is larger after this eyewall replacement cycle. 

As of the 4 a.m., this cycle was just going on. Hurricane force winds still extended just 30 miles from the center of Milton, but tropical force wind now extends out 105 miles.

The expansion of Milton has begun.

This has long been expected by forecasters and it's bad news.  A larger storm means it can push more water toward the Florida coast. The more water the storm pushes, the worse the storm surge would be. 

Since Hurricane Milton is expected to keep getting bigger until landfall, you can see why forecasters are still worried about a unsurvivable storm surge in or near Tampa Bay when Hurricane Milton makes landfall Wednesday night.

The surge will start well before the eye of the hurricane arrives, so that will cut off evacuation routes pretty early. 

This is all why you saw a stampede of people and cars wisely leaving the Florida coastline Monday, and you will continue to see that today. 

ON THE GROUND

If there was any benefit to Hurricane Helene nearly two weeks ago, is it put the fear of God into Florida residents. 

Areas in and near Tampa Bay were devastated by Helene's storm surge, and that surge wasn't even nearly as bad as the forecasts for Milton.

With the memory of Helene still fresh, people are getting out of Dodge in a hurry. Or at least trying to. There were massive traffic jams as people fled, and gas was starting to get in short supply.

Truckers and government agencies are rushing gasoline and diesel fuel to the Tampa region to make sure everybody has enough gas in the tank to flee.

Another huge problem with Hurricane Milton is actually a Hurricane Helene hangover. There are massive piles of debris lining the streets where the prior storm surge struck.  Crews are frantically trying to remove this debris before Milton hits, but there's no way they'll get rid of a lot of it. 

This debris will become destructive missiles in Milton's high winds, or become battering rams when the storm surge hits, causing even more damage to existing buildings than a storm surge alone. 

Demographic changes and existing topography are making this storm dangerous too. This might be the worst storm to hit the Tampa Bay region in about 100 years. Not many people lived there a century ago, really. Now it's changed

As the Washington Post explains:

"Tampa Bay has seen massive development in recent years. Census records show that from 1970 to 2020, the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater metropolitan area grew by more than 187 percent. Other nearby urban areas also saw substantial expansion. 

The region is at particular risk to storm surge because of its topography. Experts have warned that if a storm pushed water into Tampa Bay, it could essentially get trapped into too small a space, sending storm surge levels higher."

The Tampa metropolitan area has about 3.3 million people. A lot of them have to get out of the way of Milton.  That's why it's so chaotic there.

Some people are reluctant to evacuate.  But Tampa Mayor Jane Castor had some blunt words for residents during a CNN interview: "If you choose to stay....you are going to die," she said. 

 Here's another complication for the region: A large number of elderly people live around Tampa, Clearwater, Sarasota and those areas.  It's Florida after all, where so many people go to retire.  It's a lot harder to move an elderly person with major health issues out of the way than it is to move others.  So that's a problem that will have to be overcome today. And quickly. 

WHAT'S THE TARGET?

We know Hurricane Milton is almost guaranteed to be a formidable storm once it reaches Florida. But who gets it the worst?

The general consensus is still that it will arrive somewhere near Tampa. But it could still strike further north, like above Clearwater. Or the eye could make it ashore near Sarasota, Port Charlotte or even Cape Coral.

The whole central Gulf Coast of Florida is in for a terrible storm surge. But it matters where it will be the nastiest.

All the scenarios are bad, but the worst case is if Hurricane Milton comes ashore right over Tampa, or just a little north of that. The middle and points immediately south of the eye at landfall will be in for the roughest ride of all, and the worst storm surges. 

Of course, the storm surge is the biggest but not the only hazard with Hurricane Milton. Destructive winds will slash across all of central Florida all the way to the Atlantic in places like Daytona Beach and Melbourne. 

Inland Orlando is anticipating gusts to at least 95 mph if Hurricane Milton stays on its expected track. Flooding unrelated to storm surges is inevitable, too, given that up to a foot of rain might fall across central Florida with this hurricane.

Once Milton crossed over Florida, it will blast eastward out into the Atlantic.  Somewhat surprisingly, it's expected to fall apart once it gets well off the east coast of Florida.  Strong upper level winds, which will begin to degrade the hurricane just as it starts to reach Florida Wednesday night, will really go to town and destroy the storm once it's past Florida.

For the Sunshine State, that is unfortunately too little, too late. 

 

Monday Evening Update: Monster Milton Has Floridians Fleeing Grave Danger

Satellite view of Hurricane Milton late this afternoon.
If you click on the image to make it bigger and
easier to see, you'll notice a tiny eye, which is
often what you see in extremely strong hurricanes.
The clouds around the eye are arranged like a 
stadium would look like, another sign of a powerful storm

Hurricane Milton spent the day making history and also making Floridians, emergency managers and meteorologists quake in their boots.  

By late this afternoon, Hurricane Milton has strengthened to a monster Category 5 storm with top winds of 180 mph. (A hurricane needs to be at least at 157 mph to reach Category 5, so Milton is there by a long shot.

Only five Atlantic Ocean hurricanes on record have had stronger winds than Milton and three others were as strong. And Milton could get stronger yet before factors come together to cause a gradual weakening.

Again, I hate to use the word "weakening" because this is an enormous threat to Florida's Gulf coast. Just ask the experts: 

"If the storm stays on the current track, it will be the worst storm to impact the Tampa area in over 100 years," the National Weather Service office in Tampa, Florida warned.

"Unless we get extremely lucky, Milton will be one of the biggest hurricane disasters in history," said Bryan Norcross, one of the nation's leading hurricane experts. 

Meteorologist John Morales, with decades of hurricane forecasting under his belt, became emotional when explaining the hurricane to viewers today. It's that bad.

The overall forecast for Hurricane Milton hasn't really changed since this morning, despite it being even stronger than almost any forecast had anticipated.

It's going to scrape by the northern Yucatan peninsula tonight, raking that coastline with hurricane force winds.

Milton is just about making its turn toward the northeast for its eventual destination in Florida. At the strength it's at now, we can expect some variations in its strength before a weakening trend begins Wednesday.

The storm does have an opportunity tomorrow to get even more intense than it is now.

Hurricane Milton as powerful as it is, is relatively small in size. Hurricane force winds late this afternoon only extended out 30 miles from its tiny intense eye.

After Hurricane Milton peaks in intensity and begins to weaken a bit, the storm will also grow much larger. That's bad, because it will be able to push more Gulf of Mexico water into the Florida as a giant storm surge ahead of and during its expected landfall Wednesday night. 

If Milton goes over or a wee bit north of Tampa, the storm surge could be up to 15 feet tall. That's double what Helene managed less than two weeks ago, causing over a $1 billion in damage in Florida and causing 12 deaths. 

If Milton goes a little south of Tampa, the storm surge there will be still be catastrophic, and those potentially 15 foot storm surges could instead hit places like Sarasota or Fort Myers. 

One small piece of news about Hurricane Milton that's at least vaguely gratifying. News footage today has been showing a mass exodus out of the Tampa metro and nearby areas under the greatest threat from the storm.

Almost all those outbound vehicles represent potential lives saved because their occupants are driving away from the unsurvivable storm surge zone.

MILTON STATS

Some stats I've come across that explain why meteorologist were agog at how fast Hurricane Milton strengthened and how strong it got.

Milton's top wind speed increased by 90 mph within 24 hours. Only Felix in 2007 (100 mph in 24 hours) and Wilma in 2005 (105 mph in 24 hours, were faster, said hurricane and storm surge expert Michael Lowry. 

Milton is the second Category 5 hurricane this year (Beryl was the first one). It's only the 8th hurricane season to have two such strong storms. The others were 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005, 2007, 2017 and 2019, reported hurricane researcher Michael Ferragamo

Notice how four of those years were pretty recent. Makes you think those increasing water temperatures out there due to climate change might be one reason (but probably not the only reason)why we have such strong storms.

Another oddity about Milton is its the only known Category 5 hurricane since at least 1851 that moved toward the southeast. noted atmospheric scientist Tomer Burg. All the others headed in other directions, mostly toward the west or northwest.  

This is already a historic storm, and will very likely be one of the worst on record for the United States. It's a scary thought that perhaps by Wednesday or Thursday, we will have had two of the worst hurricanes hitting the U.S. within two weeks of each other. 

Monday Morning Hurricane Milton Update: Florida Screwed, But Exactly Where?

This morning's visible satellite view shows dawn breaking
on incredibly intense Hurricane Milton. Click on the pic
to make it bigger and easier to see. That bumpy swirl
in the middle is a sign of an extremely powerful storm

 Hurricane Milton continue to power up in the Gulf of Mexico overnight, with top winds this morning  reported at 150 mph.

That's up from 80 mph Sunday afternoon.  

Veteran hurricane watchers are stunned by how fast Milton has been strengthening. I'm barely able to keep up with it. I started the morning saying top winds were 100 mph. By 7 a.m. I had to change that to 125 p.m. By 9:15, just before posting this, I had to say 150 mph. 

It should reach Category 5 soon before it brushes the northern coast of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula to get disrupted ever so slightly. But it will bounce back for awhile and just be amazingly strong

This will go down in history as one of the strongest hurricanes on record in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Hurricane Milton is still forecast to weaken a bit on approach to the Florida peninsula on Wednesday, but that's not saying much.  As we said yesterday, that weakening toward the time of landfall shouldn't make anyone relax.

It'll still be a super dangerous hurricane when it smacks into Florida.

 Exactly when will it hit?

The consensus has been Wednesday, but there's variations on the expected forward speed of Milton. Will it be midday Wednesday? Or will it slow down and not come until night or even early Thursday? We're not sure, and that has implications as to how fast coastal residents need to be moved out of harms way because of the expected storm surge. 

Also, where will landfall in Florida hit? Hurricane Milton seems to be getting more influence from various dips and bumps in the overall upper level wind flow. 

It's been actually moving toward the east-southeast, and is now expected to brush past the northern Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico. If these southward trends continue, its interaction with land in Mexico might briefly disrupted Hurricane Milton's strengthening process,

A nice hope, but don't count on it. Plus, Milton would recover as it turns northeastward starting tomorrow. 

That slight southward shift in Milton's path today is actually complicating forecasts on how far north it will turn as it sets its sights on Florida. 

A southward dip in the upper level wind flow in the western Gulf of Mexico wants to create a corresponding northward bump in that wind field near Florida. That's why Hurricane Milton will take a turn toward the northeast.

How big will that northward bump get? We don't really know. For now, the forecast landfall is for near Tampa, but could be as far north as Cedar Key in northwestern Florida or as far down as southwestern parts of the state south of Naples. 

For those who are worried, any northward deviation in the forecast track still won't affect the flood disaster zones of north Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee and especially North Carolina. Those areas should expect no effects from Milton. In fact, that region mercifully will have very little or no rain for the next seven days. 

We shouldn't focus too much on the exact Florida landfall spot.  A wide area of Florida's Gulf Coast will be engulfed in an intense storm surge. Much of the rest of Florida can expect very damaging winds, made worse by all the debris left over from Helene blowing around. Oh, and expect lots of inland flooding, too

In other words, at least part of Florida is screwed. Again.

When Helene blew by less than two weeks, a highly destructive and deadly storm surge reached seven feet in Tampa Bay.  Current forecasts in Tampa Bay indicate Milton would create 8 to 12 feet of storm surge. 

Tampa Bay is oriented such that if Hurricane Milton goes over or a slight bit north of Tampa, surges would be forced by topography to really pile up in that bay, hence the worry. If Milton goes south of Tampa, it won't be nearly as bad.

But then if that happens, places like Fort Myers Beach, flattened by Hurricane Ian in 2022 and damaged by Helene at the end of September, would be devastated again. 

Anywhere in Florida where there's a storm surge risk, people ought to be getting o

In any event, this will be the third time this year Florida has been hit by a hurricane. They can't take much more.