Hurricane Milton Evening Update: It's Striking Florida Now, With Still Some Uncertainties

Satellite view of Hurricane Milton around 6 p.m. today
on final approach toward landfall on Florida's 
Gulf Coast. Conditions were already super rough there.e 

As of late this afternoon, Hurricane Milton was on final approach to the west coast of Florida.

We still know it's going to be bad, but even though the eye of the storm is close by, there's still questions as to how bad and where.  

At 5 p.m. Hurricane Milton was centered only about 60 miles west, southwest of Sarasota, Florida. Top winds were down to 120 mph. It could either be a Category 3 storm at landfall with winds of between 111 to 129 mph, or a Category 2 with winds of 96 to 110 mph.

Even if it's a Category 2, that definition is misleading in this case. Since Hurricane Milton was so incredibly strong over the past couple of days, it's mustering up a much bigger storm surge than most hurricanes of that strength.

Plus, as anticipated, the hurricane is getting larger. Tropical storm force winds extend out 255 miles from the center and have enveloped much of western Florida. As of 5 p.m. winds were gusting to 62 or 63 mph in some spots along the immediate coast. 

Gusts in Sarasota increased from 48 mph at 5 p.m. to 60 mph at 6 p.m. 

A couple of last minute twists have entered the picture with this hurricane. 

First of all, it was supposed to slow down, delaying landfall until midnight or a little after. It didn't slow down. At least not yet. Landfall now looks like it will hit between 9 and 11 p.m.  It's really too late for people to flee now, and the worst of it will come even sooner than I imagine some people planned.

The National Hurricane Center said those living in areas with the anticipated strongest winds should take shelter in interior rooms away from windows. The strongest winds will be near and just to the north of the eye when it comes ashore. 

STORM SURGE

The storm surge forecast continues to look complicated. Contrary to some messages I've seen, Tampa Bay is still in play for a possible cataclysmic storm surge. 

Hurricane expert Bryan Norcross noted on Fox Weather late this afternoon that the center of Milton was a little north of a lot of the forecasting guidance. That raised the possibility that the center of the hurricane could crash right into Tampa Bay instead of blowing by a short distance to the south. 

That would open things up for a devastating storm surge there.  Forecasters still think the worst storm surge will probably be near Bradenton and Sarasota, and the barrier islands offshore of those communities. 

Screen grab of video at 6 p.m shows storm surge
already inundating Fort Myers Beach, Florida
with Hurricane Milton still offshore. 

The orientation of Hurricane Milton when it comes ashore will mean there will be huge differences in storm surge heights over short distances, the National Hurricane Center noted. 

 Since the hurricane will be so close to Tampa Bay when it comes ashore, it'll make the storm surge in that area especially unpredictable.

The initial rush of wind and water would slam into the bay, but then strong east winds might blow water westward.  It's a crapshoot, so everybody who was under evacuation orders should have left. Even if a few lucky places don't get much of a storm surge. Because we don't know who those lucky people will be, if they end up existing at all. 

The bottom line is, just a difference of a few miles in the eventual path of Hurricane Milton will make an enormous difference as to what happens in Tampa Bay. 

Winds ahead of landfall are coming from the east, so that's keeping some of the storm surge away. But as the hurricane comes ashore, the wind and waves will shift abruptly, coming from the west. That storm surge will smash through coastal towns, cities and neighborhoods with alarming, deadly force speed. 

Another complication is the timing of high tide tonight. 

Complicating matters even more is the timing of today's high tides. High tides in most of the greatest threat zone are before dawn Thursday, so it looks like the incoming tide could work in concert with the storm surge. We shall see.  

OTHER HAZARDS

Tornado warnings are still flying in parts of Florida, and that risk will continue the rest of the night.  On top of the hurricane warnings, flash flood warnings are now in effect along the path of the storm, especially in places like Sarasota and Tampa as torrential rains are now ripping through. 

The damage is just beginning, and we won't have much of an idea of how bad the damage will be, and how many people will die for a few days at least. 

I've already seen some potential Florida Darwin Award winners on television, including a car seen heading out to the extremely vulnerable barrier islands off the coast of Sarasota or Bradenton. This, with landfall coming very soon. 

The storm will be out of Florida by this time tomorrow. Its departure can't come a moment too soon.