Two Tropical Storm Surprises Today, But No Threat To The United States

Very small, but well organized Tropical Storm Oscar
abruptly formed this morning and was just shy of 
hurricane status by mid-afternoon north of Hispaniola.

 All of a sudden this morning, we had two new tropical storms in the Atlantic basin - one is named Nadine, the other is Oscar.  

Nadine was only a semi-surprise, but Oscar seemed to come out of nowhere. 

NADINE

For days before Nadine formed, the storm was the subject of social media rumor mongering and click bait farming.

The story, meant to illicit fear and inspire lots of social media clicks and therefore income, was that Nadine would form somewhere off the Central American coast, become powerful, and make a beeline toward Florida, just as catastrophic hurricanes Helene and Milton did.

The meteorologists who know better weren't nearly as alarmed. For good reason. Sure enough, Nadine formed off the Central American coast yesterday, then headed westward to make landfall near Belize City, Belize late this morning.

Before landfall, ocean waters beneath Nadine were quite warm and atmospheric conditions were favorable, so it managed to attain top winds of 60 mph at landfall. But it's moving inland now, and will become a rain and probably flood maker down in that neck of the woods.

It'll dissipate over southern Mexico by sometimes tomorrow. Upper level patterns and a cold front that plunged deeply into the Gulf of Mexico has prevented, and will prevent, any movement of Nadine northward. So no threat to the United States

OSCAR

Oscar the Grouch, as I'm calling this one, is arguably the biggest surprise of a very surprising hurricane season.

Since last week, a disturbance has been staggering westward across the Atlantic Ocean, never finding a way to develop into something stronger. As of yesterday, the National Hurricane Center was giving this lame thing just a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

Until it did.

Out of seemingly nowhere this morning, the very lame disturbance organized into a tropical storm. Since then, it's been developing fast and actually has a shot at becoming a short lived hurricane.

As of 11 a.m., the National Hurricane Center had Tropical Storm Oscar's top winds at 40 mph. But satellite imagery and some preliminary reports from hurricane hunters early this afternoon indicated the storm was powering up rapidly. By 1:15 p.m., Oscar's top wind speed had been updated to 70 mph.  

Oscar is a tiny little thing in terms of size. Tropical storm force winds only extended out 35 miles from the center of this thing.

Very small tropical storms and hurricanes have a tendency to get stronger more quickly than bigger storms. They also weaken much more quickly than larger systems. 

That'll make the strength of this thing hard to predict over the next couple days.

Oscar has prompted tropical storm warnings for the Turks and Caicos islands, southeastern Bahamas and parts of Cuba. It's moving generally westward, and is forecast to be near northeastern Cuba by Sunday night.

That cold front and a dip in the jet stream looks like it will protect Florida from whatever Tropical Storm Oscar becomes. The dip in the jet stream should eventually turn Oscar to the north, then northeast, so it would avoid Florida entirely.

The weird Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 continues on!