Hurricane Melissa Even Stronger On Approach To Jamaica. Very Scary

Satellite photo of Hurricane Melissa this afternoon.
It's a classic example of a super strong hurricane at
its peak. Note the perfectly circular core surrounding
a tiny eye, and a huge spray of outflow clouds
mainly to its east. 

The 5 p.m. update on Hurricane Melissa from the National Hurricane Center just came in and it's not a good one.  

Top sustained winds in Melissa were at 175 mph. 

One measurement around noon or so indicated a surface wind of 188 mph, which, if accurate, is incredible. 

According to meteorologist/hurricane expert John Morales, the air pressure at the center of Melissa was 908 millibars early this afternoon, which made it the 11th strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic. 

As of 5 p.m. the pressure was down to 906 millibars, making it the strongest Atlantic hurricane for so late in the season. Melissa is also the world's strongest tropical cyclone so far in 2025.

The hurricane is forecast to make landfall Tuesday on the southern coast of Jamaica probably on the western half of the island. Everybody there, including tourists, were hunkering down and hoping for the best. The airports are closed, and cruise lines have gotten out of Dodge, so to speak. 

As of midafternoon, Melissa was already responsible for eight deaths, five in Haiti, two in Jamaica and one in Dominican Republic. 

The main body of Melissa is a perfectly circular buzzsaw, with its intense winds still just offshore of Jamaica after this afternoon. It's probably at peak intensity now, Even if it starts to weaken a little before landfall, it will be far too little, far too late. 

On satellite, it looks like a classic, intense hurricane. Besides the circular buzzsaw core, it's got a tiny little eye, surrounded by lightning flashes and a huge spray of clouds billowing far to the east of the center. That's the storm's outflow, which is contributing to torrential rains in Haiti, Dominican Republic and elsewhere. 

This will be by far the worst hurricane Jamaica has ever experienced. And it will also be a huge nightmare for Cuba, too. The southeast Bahamas are still seriously under the gun, too. 

QUIET SEASON UNTIL NOW

The average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 names storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

This year, including Melissa there have been 14 named storms, five hurricanes, three of them category 5. Only 2005 had that many or more Category 5 hurricanes, which have winds of at least 157 mph. 

Until Melissa, you'd never know it's been such an active season. Except for relatively weak Tropical Storm Chantal, which hit the Carolinas in July, none have hit the United States. This will be the first year since 2015 with no U.S. hurricane landfalls, unless there's some sort of November surprise.

Melissa will miss the United States. And Melissa is the first hurricane to directly strike land while close to its full fury.  So until now, this year was "one of the most benign hurricane seasons in a long time."

EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT

Melissa grew from a tropical storm to a major hurricane in almost a blink of an eye. That's been the pattern this year. 

As CNN states

"Melissa isn't just another major hurricane. It's the latest in a string of Atlantic storms that have exploded in strength at breakneck speed.

Melissa grew from a 70 mph tropical storm Saturday to a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane by early Sunday. This 70 mph wind speed increase in only 24 hours is double the criteria storms need to meet in out to qualify as rapid intensifiers. 

This type of explosive strengthening used to rare, but is happening more often as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution. "

Four of the five Atlantic hurricanes in 2025 have undergone extremely rapid intensifications: Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto and Melissa. 

Climate change does seem to be affecting how many particularly strong hurricanes there are out there. As Jeff Masters at Yale Climate Connections writes:

"Numerous studies over the past 20 years have found that hurricane strength storms are not becoming more numerous globally, but the fraction of such storms that reach Category 4 or 5 strength is growing and is expected to keep growing, so the world is seeing more pop these intense tropical cyclones, which tend to be the most deadly and dangerous ones."

We're increasingly going to have disasters like this. It's already been a big problem in the past decade. Harvey in 2017, Michael in 2018, Ida in 2021, Beryl, Helene and Milton last year. It's going on and on and going to get worse. 

In other words, we're going to have quite a lot of Jamaica calamities in the coming years.   

Forecasters Worred Tropical Storm Melissa Could Turn Into Catastrophic Caribbean Hurricane

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Melissa starting
to get its act together over the Caribbean today. 

When we last checked in on Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean Sea two days ago, it was a fairly weak and disorganized mess with a highly uncertain future. 

Today, Melissa is still a weak system, still in the central Caribbean, still rather disorganized and still facing an uncertain future. In fact, winds with Melissa were just 45 mph, a bit less than they were on Tuesday. 

So no news, right?

Oh, but there is news, and it's ominous. 

Here's the deal:

Strong winds aloft have been keeping Melissa in check, blowing apart the thunderstorms Melissa needs to sustain itself and grow. 

Those winds are weakening, and as of late morning, Melissa was showing signs of the monster it might well become.

Thunderstorms started erupting on the storm's west side, not just to the east. Also, some of Melissa's clouds were showing curved, banded shapes. These are signs those strong upper level winds are starting to subside.  Meteorologists believe those upper level winds will continue to die down. 

Tropical Storm Melissa is sitting over record warm Caribbean Sea waters. That makes Melissa a ticking time bomb, ready to go off.  

The question is, where will the bomb go off? 

The official forecast as Melissa slowly growing stronger later today into early Saturday, then really going off to the races to become a major hurricane. A few computer models have it going to Category 5, which would mean top sustained winds of at least 160 mph. 

For now, the National Hurricane Center isn't going that far. But they do have official forecast has Melissa with top sustained winds at 130 by Sunday.

Where Melissa will go is still super hard to figure out. Much harder than usual for a hurricane. There's a complex dance of other weather systems far to its north that will control where it goes. 

This time of year, almost every time a storm goes by to the north, it will try to "pick up" a tropical storm and fling it northward through the Atlantic.  Not every storm can "reach" a Caribbean hurricane. In those cases, the hurricane stays well to the south. 

A sort of storm, a weak thing near the Bahamas is trying to tug on Melissa, which is why it's ever so slowly crawling northward. It'll keep doing that through about Friday, the National Hurricane Center thinks, at a pace that this 63 year old writer could easily outrun -really outwalk -  it if Melissa were a person. 

The disturbance near the Bahamas will zip away, and forecasters think this will make Melissa make a sharp left turn and intensify. When it makes its left turn - if it does - will have a huge effect on how bad things get in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic,and maybe Cuba.

At this point, Jamaica looks like it might really be in jeopardy. Melissa is already coming close enough to Hispaniola and Jamaica to raise the threat of flooding and mudslides. If a powerful Hurricane Melissa hits Jamaica, that would be absolutely catastrophic. 

The forecast is really complicated, so Melissa can, and probably will pulls some surprises. It could keep heading north to blast Haiti or maybe eastern Cuba. It could turn toward the north or northeast near or just west of Jamaica, putting western Cuba and the Bahamas in the crosshairs. 

There's a chance it could hit Florida, but for now, most computer models have Melissa missing the United States. There's also a chance Melissa could keep plowing west toward Central America.

One of the few certainties about Melissa is that it will continue to move incredibly slowly. So it's going to be a problem for maybe a week or more.  

This looks like a really dangerous one for somebody. 

Hurricane Humberto, Soon-To-Be Tropical Storm Imelda Begin Their Dangerous Dance

This morning's satellite phot shows powerful 
Hurricane Humberto spinning gracefully on the
right side of the photo, while what should become
Tropical Storm Imelda struggles to organize
near northeastern Cuba. 

The Carolinas, Georgia and Virginia are now on alert for that dance we told you about the other day between Hurricane Humberto and what will soon be Tropical Storm Imelda. 

They're going to be too close to each other, which means they might do weird things, like tumultuous romantic couples do. The two storms might try rotating around each other, or one will pull the other in odd directions or one of them might stall, you never know. 

This is a HUGE forecast headache for everybody, mostly because so much is at stake.  This situation has the potential to cause immense, life-threatening floods in the Carolinas.   

Following what has become a very common trend in Atlantic hurricanes, Humberto in the past couple of days blew up from a humble tropical storm to a Category 4 monster, with top wind speeds of 145 mph. It's possible it will end up as another Category 5 in the next day or so.

As of this morning, Humberto was churning a good distance - 375 miles or so - northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 

The good news in this messy scenario is Humberto will stay well offshore of the East Coast. A landfall would be devastating for a hurricane of this strength. So at least we avoid that. 

If not for wannabe Imelda, this situation would be very much like big powerful Hurricane Erin in August. Humberto will expand as it heads northwestward, then northward, then out to sea. It would throw some dangerous rip currents, and some coastal flooding here and there up and down the East Coast. 

IMELDA INTERFERES

But the East Coast is not out of the woods, thanks to Wannabe Imelda. As of early this morning, the center of what should become Tropical Storm Imelda was near the northeastern coast of Cuba. 

It might already be a tropical storm by the time you read this, because this thing was on the cusp of becoming one as of dawn Saturday. 

Early guesses is it will move northward through the Bahamas through early Tuesday, parallel to the Florida coast. 

But that's something of a guess, considering Humberto will also be lurking nearby, like a fickle Latin lover with his eyes on Imelda. 

By Monday morning, Imelda will probably be somewhere over the Bahamas while big, fat Humberto makes its closest approach to Imelda to its east. 

Because Humberto is so strong, it's probably going to be the boss in its relationship with Wannabe Imelda .The trouble is, Humberto isn't exactly being clear on what he's going to do with Imelda.

What follows is a scenario a lot of forecasters have settled on, at least as of Saturday morning. Definitely expect both changes to the hurricane predictions forecast and some surprises. The relationship between Humberto and Imelda could become soap opera-level tumultuous. 

THE TROPICAL TELENOVELA

At first, on Sunday and Monday, the two storms would roughly move in tandem toward the north or northwest, like a bride and groom walking down the aisle. 

Then Humberto would part ways, accelerating to the Northeast. That might tug Imelda east a little bit, as if it wanted to chase after Humberto. ("Please!!! Come back!!!,"  I can imagine Imelda wailing).

The tug east would be great as it might prevent a United States landfall. There would still be heavy rain, flooding, coastal surges, wind, that sort of thing. Bad for sure, but not a worst  case scenario.

But Humberto might do other things. It might initially tug at Imelda, but then leave it sitting there like a jilted date, just offshore of the Carolinas.  That would keep dumping and dumping rain on the eastern Carolinas, causing yet another unwanted catastrophic flood there. 

Unlike Helene last year, the big flood, if it happens, would mostly but maybe not completely avoid the mountains of western North Carolina. 

Or, after Humberto departs, Imelda might wander indecisively and erratically off the U.S Southeast Coast, maybe looking for another hurricane to hook up with. 

A wild card is we don't know how strong Imelda will get. If it remains a relatively weak tropical storm, Imelda would likely be more obedient to Humberto. If it develops into a stronger hurricane, Imelda might get annoyed at misogynistic Humberto and pull a surprise of her own. 

Then, all bets are off on what Imelda might do. 

I guess we just need to do what we do with all soap operas and telenovelas. Just sit and wait for the next  episode. Annoyed meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are probably taking a cue from Carol Burnett and calling this mess between Humberto and Imelda "As The Stomach Turns."

VERMONT EFFECTS

Pretty much the only easy part of the hurricane forecast is how all this is going to affect us here in Vermont. The answer is: It won't.

Which means our drought will start to reintensify.

Some scattered showers Friday afternoon and evening were the icing on Thursday's welcome, delightful, soggy cake. For instance, a brief downpour dumped another 0.12 inches on Burlington.

While our tropical drama plays out far to our south, strong high pressure will park itself overhead. Some clouds might come in this afternoon and evening as a disturbance zips by to our south but no rain will come of it. 

Sunday and Monday and probably Tuesday look dry and warm and sunny.  Highs in the warmer valleys could touch 80 degrees, which is unusual but not unheard of for this time of year.

Humberto - far offshore by midweek - will be one of a few atmospheric factors that should pull even stronger, and cooler high pressure down from east of Hudson Bay later in the week. That will probably re-introduce the chance of frost for a couple mornings before warm, sunny weather returns afterwards.

It still looks like our next chance of rain in Vermont won't come along until October 9 or so.  

Don't Be Fooled By Hurricane Erin's "Weakening" East Coast. It's Now Gaining A Little And Shoreline Still In For A Battering

Hurricane Erin of the Southeast U.S. coast this 
morning. Its classic symmetrical shape and eye are
a sign it has a chance to keep restrengthening for
awhile as it passed by North Carolina. 

As of late this morning, Hurricane Erin has stopped its slow strength decline and is starting to gain wind speed again. 

At 11 a.m, top winds were at 110 mph, which is reversal from a trend we saw Tuesday. 

Erin's top wind speed has slowly been winding down. Top winds were at 125 mph Tuesday morning, 110 mph by noon yesterday, 105 mph last evening and 100 mph early this morning .

The central air pressure of Erin, which had been rising, is now falling, another sign that it's beginning to strengthen again. 

Strong upper level winds and a gulp of dry air were disrupting Erin on Tuesday, which led to its weakening trend.

Those strong upper level winds have waned and Hurricane Erin began regaining its organization overnight and early today. 

Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center think Erin will continue restrengthening today, probably achieving top winds of 120 mph off the southeastern United States coast. 

Starting tomorrow morning, upper level winds over Erin will get strong again, so the storm should start weakening again as accelerates northeastward in the open Atlantic far off the coasts of New England and Nova Scotia Thursday and Friday.  

Whether it gets stronger or not, or by how much is sort of besides the point. The storm is so large in size that it's generated a lot of big waves that have already started crashing into the U.S. East Coast.  Dangerous ocean waves are extending 1,000 or so miles from Hurricane Erin's center. 

U,S, COASTLINE BATTERING

Even though Erin is staying far offshore tropical storm force winds - 39 mph or more - extend 265 miles from the hurricane's center. That means places like the Outer Banks of North Carolina and  probably Cape Cod and the islands in Massachusetts will have those winds, even though the storm will stay far offshore. 

A dozen East Coast states have some sort of advisory or warning regarding Hurricane Erin, Tropical storm and coastal flood warnings are in effect for the shores of  North Carolina, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey.  

The main United States focus is on Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, where water started washing over Route 12 at high tide Tuesday - far in advance of Hurricane Erin. Route 12 is basically the only way on or off the Outer Banks.  The overwash, storm surge flooding and huge waves on the Outer Banks gets worse with every high tide cycle as Erin approaches, and will peak tomorrow.

Once Route 12 is blocked, it could take days to clear enough sand and do enough repairs to make the road passable, 

Charleston, South Carolina is another trouble spot, which might be surprising since Hurricane Erin will miss that city by such a wide margin.  But due to sea level rise due to climate change, the Charleston area now floods frequently in storms.

High tide in Charleston today is forecast to bring moderate, almost borderline major coastal flooding. 

Further north above the Outer Banks, pretty substantial coastal flooding is expected in resort towns like Virginia Beach, Virginia, Ocean City, Maryland, Bethany and Rohoboth beaches in Delaware and the Jersey Shore.

In all these areas, coastal roads will become impassable and officials are worried about damage to vulnerable structures. To nobody's surprise, beaches are closed to swimmers. Even before Erin, the Jersey Shore has endured several incidents. Just last week, one person died and six others were rescued amid rip tides in Seaside Heights, New Jersey.

In Massachusetts,  Nantucket officials said all beaches on the island's south shore are now closed because of dangerous surf and rip currents caused by Hurricane Erin. Locals told reporters Tuesday the water was already too rough to safely swim in, 

Rough seas and some coastal problems are likely in Atlantic Canada late this week and the weekend. By Monday or Tuesday, Erin will be in the North Atlantic and transition to a non-tropical system that could cause problems in Ireland by Tuesday. 

 OTHER STORMS

The National Hurricane Center is watching two other areas in the Atlantic Ocean that could develop into tropical storms. 

One disturbance is roughly following Erin's path and could develop into a tropical depression or storm north of the northern Leeward Islands.  Early indications are this storm, if it develops, will curve northward in the Atlantic and miss the United States by a wide margin. 

The National Hurricane Center is also monitoring another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.  At the moment at least, if this thing develops into a tropical storm, it could be short-lived as strong upper level winds wreck it.

But even after those winds break it apart, this disturbance could eventually redevelop closer to the Caribbean in a week or two 

 

Hurricane Erin Slightly Weaker But Still Mighty. Also, Ignore The Hype Machine

Satellite view of Hurricane Erin just after dawn this
morning. You can't really see the eye as it's going
through what is known as an eyewall replacement
cycle. The hurricane is reorganizing. 

Monster Hurricane Erin as of this morning continues to behave itself about as well as a powerful hurricane can.  

It is still resolutely on course to avoid direct hits on any land, though of course the storm will continue to cause its share of trouble.  

Hurricane Erin has calmed down ever so slightly from its flashy strengthening on Saturday. You'll remember it was an extreme hurricane - Category 5 with top winds of 160 mph.

Early this morning, Erin was down to a top wind speed of 125 mph, the National Hurricane Center tells us.  That's still wicked dangerous, but it's no longer quite at the top of the scale. 

Last night, Hurricane Erin looks like it is going through  began to go through what is known as an eyewall replacement cycle. You might be familiar with the eye of a hurricane, that small clear center surrounded by the storm's most powerful winds.

That circle of powerful winds around the center of a hurricane is called the eyewall. The eye of a hurricane.  An eyewall replacement cycle is when it sort of collapses and forms a new eyewall, often larger than the original.

When this happens, a hurricane will usually weaken. They can re-strengthen after the cycle is complete. That might happen with Erin, but predicting the strength of a hurricane is even harder than forecasting its path. 

Hurricane Erin continues more or less on its predicted path, says the National Hurricane Center.  Its turn to the north might be a little more gradual than some previous forecasts, but it's happening.

The hurricane is getting larger in size, so islands pretty far from its center will see some rough weather. 

The Turks and Caicos Islands are under a tropical storm warning and the eastern Bahamas are under a tropical storm watch because the outer bands of Hurricane Erin will lash those places as it passes by to the east.  

AVOIDING THE HYPE

Ignore any clickbait you'll see on social media regarding Hurricane Erin. It's not going to hit Florida. And at worse, it's only going to give a glancing blow to North Carolina's Outer Banks. 

There will probably be some big waves and dangerous rip currents from Hurricane Erin on Florida's east coast,  and the rest of the U.S. East Coast for that matter, but that's about it. 

Floridians have some very understandable PTSD when it comes to hurricanes, given the storms they've had in recent years.  Telling everyone online that Florida is going to get hit by Erin is great for clicks and revenue, but pretty cruel and unethical when you know that's not going to happen. 

To be clear, my dear Floridians: Don't worry about Erin unless you plan to go swimming at Daytona Beach or something like that. 

If you want the best, most accurate forecasts about storms like Erin, go to the National Hurricane Center. 

Almost all the information I share about Hurricane Erin, or any tropical storm or hurricane I mention in this here blog thingy comes almost completely from the National Hurricane Center.

That's by far the most reliable source of information and forecasts for any tropical storm. Yes, Trump budget cuts have hurt the National Hurricane Center, but they're still doing fantastic work keeping us safe with their storm forecasts. 

Other great and reliable sources of hurricane information are The Weather Channel and a lot of local meteorologists near where you live. If you're in Florida, especially near Miami, pay attention to John Morales, who is really just about the top hurricane forecaster out there. If you're in Texas, especially the Houston area, rely on Matt Lanza, he's also top of the line. 

Lanza has a tropical weather blog called The Eyewall, which is a must-read for anyone worried about hurricanes and tropical storms. 

Tropical Storm Erin Forms, Expected To Be Big Hurricane, But Where Will It Go?

Tropical Storm Erin in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean
doesn't look like much in satellite photos just yet,
but forecasters expect it to grow into a pretty 
powerful hurricane. No word yet on whether it 
would eventually threaten the United States.

 Tropical Storm Erin formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean today. This one will be the first biggie of the Atlantic hurricane season.  

But what Erin does and where it goes is still a big question. 

Since it was just forming, Erin is - for now - pretty week - with top winds of 45 mph.  Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center said they think Erin will at first struggle against dry air and ocean water temperatures only barely warm enough to maintain a tropical system.

But as Erin moves westward, it'll encounter more humid air and ocean water that is much warmer.

 The water temperature isn't at record high levels as they were in 2023 and 2024.  But that temperature is well above normal and can easily support a strong hurricane,

The early guess is by Saturday morning, a rather powerful Hurricane Erin might be somewhere north of the Leeward Islands.

But then where will it go?

Many, but not all of the computer models are kind of encouraging. They turn Erin northward while it's well north of Puerto Rico and send it off into the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far off the U.S. East Coast. 

The current track forecast for Erin, It's depicted as a 
major hurricane well northeast of Puerto Rico on
Saturday. It might turn north after that, but 
meteorologists are still unsure. 

But not all models do that. Some bring Erin to near Florida. And remember, it'll be a week or more before Erin will have any opportunity to approach the U.S.   So many things can change in that time frame that could conceivably take Erin anywhere from the Gulf of Mexico, to anywhere along the U.S. or Canadian east coasts, or, as I mentioned harmlessly out to sea.

Obviously we're rooting for the harmlessly out to sea option. 

It's not worth panicking over Erin because any United States impacts it might have are far, far away. There's lots of time to watch this thing. 

As the National Hurricane Center notes, this is only the beginning of peak hurricane season. 

Even if Erin ultimately misses the U.S., it's a great excuse to prepare for the season, and make sure you have everything you need and plans in place in case a hurricane threatens later this summer or fall. 

Erin is brand new and it has already caused trouble. Even before it was officially a tropical storm, it set off serious flooding in the Cabo Verde islands, where six people were reportedly killed.  Homes, businesses and vehicles on the islands sustained serious damage. 

The Cabo Verde islands are roughly 400 miles west of the westernmost point in the continent of Africa.  

Just Calm Down Already About Those Wild Hurricane Forecasts

Despite the hype, we'll go to the National Hurricane 
Center. There's a low chance (in yellow) a tropical
storm might form in the central Atlantic, and a
medium chance (orange) that a storm or huricane
will form further south 

 It's that hazy, crazy time of year when you see those wild hurricane forecasts for a week or two in the future. 

A powerful hurricane will hit Florida! Wait, there will be two giant hurricanes attacking Florida from either side!  Whoops! New England is about to get blasted by the worst hurricane since 1938!  Oh, we lose New Orleans and Houston again!

Of course, it's almost guaranteed we will not see any of the scenarios later this month.  But these forecasts are all over social media, even if they're accompanying by a disclaimer that they're not an actually forecast. (Duh!). 

It's all about clicks and revenue for whoever is posting, you see. 

The forecasts are grounded in just the faintest glimmer of reality. The computer models that meteorologists rely on spit out new scenarios every six hours or so. (Some more frequently).  I've seen all the above scenarios in recent model runs, all happening around August 20 or 21, give or take.

I've written before about these "phantom hurricanes" in computer models. Now that we're getting into peak hurricane season, we've also entered into peak phantom hurricane season.

Despite the fact that the hurricanes depicted a couple weeks down the road won't play out like that in reality, these model runs are still useful.

They're all consistently telling us that the Atlantic Ocean is about to get pretty active with tropical storms and possible hurricane activity.  The model runs are a shot across the bow, warning us to pay attention starting now. 

Nobody can tell you for sure if a hurricane will form, and if it does, where it will go, but something will probably form. If you live in a hurricane prone area, you should finish stocking up the supplied you'll need if you ever receive a hurricane warning 

The fact that we're suddenly seeing hurricanes in the long range forecast is right on schedule. Disturbances  start coming off of the west coast of Africa in the July or the first half of August. Some of those disturbances turn into hurricanes. 

One of them is now in the central Atlantic and has a low chance of turning into a tropical storm or hurricane. If it does, the National Hurricane Center broadly thinks it will head north and not hit land, but again, no promises.

Another disturbance just came off the African Coast and is in the eastern Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center is a little more bullish on this one, so far giving it a medium chance of developing into something. 

This is the one those computer models are depicting, the one that would destroy, Florida, New England, or hell, North Dakota for all I know. 

Again, nobody knows whether this thing will come anywhere near the United States, and if so where and at what strength. As you can see in the map of this post, the National Hurricane Center brings it west to northwestward, ending up somewhere in the tropical Atlantic in several days. The general area they think it might end up is the orange shaded area. 

From there, who knows?  Stay tuned

OVERALL SEASON

The National Hurricane Center this past week updated its forecast for the rest of the season. They're predicting 13 to 18 named storms, including the four tropical storms we've already had. An average season has 14 named storms, meaning tropical storms or hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. 

The NHC expects five to nine hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph) and two to five major hurricanes, with winds of 111 mph or greater. 

Those figures are slightly busier than an average season.

What matters most is where those storms go.  There's some indication the United States East Coast might be a little more vulnerable to hurricanes than usual this year. 

As the Washington Post explained on Thursday, a marine heat wave has developed in the western Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. A marine heat wave is when an area of the ocean warms up dramatically to or near record levels. 

If a hurricane encounters those warm waters on the way to the United States, chances are they'll grow to be much stronger than a similar storm that encounters somewhat cooler water. In general, the hotter the water, the greater they chance a hurricane will grow stronger. 

Marine heat waves were a major reason why Hurricanes Helene and Milton proved so destructive when they hit the United States last year. 

Certain weather patterns steer hurricanes toward the East Coast and we seem to be trending toward ingredients that would do that. These include a strong Bermuda High with a westward extension toward the United States that would prevent a westward moving hurricane from the tropics from turning northward, out to sea.

Another ingredient is a strong blocking high pressure system over eastern Canada, which again would steer a hurricane up the coast rather than letting it curve eastward, out to sea

The third ingredient is a dip in the jet stream over the Appalachians. That dip might or might not develop in the coming weeks. But such a jet stream arrangement becomes a little more likely in September, which coincides with what is usually the worst of hurricane season. 

So, when you see those maps into the future on social media, the ones that tell you that your city will be wiped out by a major hurricane within two weeks, honestly just relax.

But don't ignore it. 

Two Tropical Storm Surprises Today, But No Threat To The United States

Very small, but well organized Tropical Storm Oscar
abruptly formed this morning and was just shy of 
hurricane status by mid-afternoon north of Hispaniola.

 All of a sudden this morning, we had two new tropical storms in the Atlantic basin - one is named Nadine, the other is Oscar.  

Nadine was only a semi-surprise, but Oscar seemed to come out of nowhere. 

NADINE

For days before Nadine formed, the storm was the subject of social media rumor mongering and click bait farming.

The story, meant to illicit fear and inspire lots of social media clicks and therefore income, was that Nadine would form somewhere off the Central American coast, become powerful, and make a beeline toward Florida, just as catastrophic hurricanes Helene and Milton did.

The meteorologists who know better weren't nearly as alarmed. For good reason. Sure enough, Nadine formed off the Central American coast yesterday, then headed westward to make landfall near Belize City, Belize late this morning.

Before landfall, ocean waters beneath Nadine were quite warm and atmospheric conditions were favorable, so it managed to attain top winds of 60 mph at landfall. But it's moving inland now, and will become a rain and probably flood maker down in that neck of the woods.

It'll dissipate over southern Mexico by sometimes tomorrow. Upper level patterns and a cold front that plunged deeply into the Gulf of Mexico has prevented, and will prevent, any movement of Nadine northward. So no threat to the United States

OSCAR

Oscar the Grouch, as I'm calling this one, is arguably the biggest surprise of a very surprising hurricane season.

Since last week, a disturbance has been staggering westward across the Atlantic Ocean, never finding a way to develop into something stronger. As of yesterday, the National Hurricane Center was giving this lame thing just a 10 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.

Until it did.

Out of seemingly nowhere this morning, the very lame disturbance organized into a tropical storm. Since then, it's been developing fast and actually has a shot at becoming a short lived hurricane.

As of 11 a.m., the National Hurricane Center had Tropical Storm Oscar's top winds at 40 mph. But satellite imagery and some preliminary reports from hurricane hunters early this afternoon indicated the storm was powering up rapidly. By 1:15 p.m., Oscar's top wind speed had been updated to 70 mph.  

Oscar is a tiny little thing in terms of size. Tropical storm force winds only extended out 35 miles from the center of this thing.

Very small tropical storms and hurricanes have a tendency to get stronger more quickly than bigger storms. They also weaken much more quickly than larger systems. 

That'll make the strength of this thing hard to predict over the next couple days.

Oscar has prompted tropical storm warnings for the Turks and Caicos islands, southeastern Bahamas and parts of Cuba. It's moving generally westward, and is forecast to be near northeastern Cuba by Sunday night.

That cold front and a dip in the jet stream looks like it will protect Florida from whatever Tropical Storm Oscar becomes. The dip in the jet stream should eventually turn Oscar to the north, then northeast, so it would avoid Florida entirely.

The weird Atlantic hurricane season of 2024 continues on!

Hurricane Season Might Be Getting Off To A Fast Start

Satellite photo from showing United States, Mexico, the 
Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic Ocean. That mess
of clouds in the southern Gulf of Mexico could become 
Tropical Storm Alex.

 Officially, the hurricane season for the Atlantic Ocean side of North America begins today, June 1, and there's already a tropical storm threat to talk about. 

The National Hurricane Center is giving a disturbance near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula a high chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm.  If it does form, it appears it's poised to give Florida  and Cuba an absolute drenching. 

At least a half foot of rain is forecast in both places, which of course could lead to some pretty nasty flooding. 

If this thing develops into a tropical storm, they'll name it Alex. It'll probably fall short of becoming a full-fledged hurricane, as strong upper level winds are and will be interfering with its development. That's typical early in the hurricane season.  

Usually upper level winds are stronger and ocean temperatures are cooler in June than in, say, August.  That's why early season storms are usually (but not always!) weaker than the powerhouse hurricanes later in the summer and early autumn. 

That said, there's two factors that are helping wannabe Alex.  Ocean temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are warmer than normal. Plus, wannabe Alex is getting energy from what once was Hurricane Agatha.

On the Pacific Ocean side of North America, hurricane season starts May 15, and we've already had our first hurricane. This was definitely an exception to the rule that June tropical systems are weak.

Agatha was the strongest landfalling hurricane in May with winds of at least 105 mph when it came ashore a couple days ago in the southern state of Oaxaca, Mexico. It killed at least 11 people and 20 people are still missing after the flooding and mudslides caused by Agatha. 

Agatha fell apart over the mountains of southern Mexico as all landfalling hurricanes lose steam over land. But its remnant energy is feeding into the disturbed weather near the Yucatan Peninsula, which could help wannabe Alex get its act together. 

If wannabe Alex develops into a tropical storm, it won't be the earliest on record. Despite the fact that hurricane season officially starts on June 1, there have been tropical storms in May. There has even been three Atlantic Ocean tropical storms recorded in April, the most recent being in 2017.   

The National Hurricane Center predict this year will be another very busy one in the Atlantic Ocean, due to a number of factors. Those include a continuing La Nina global weather pattern and ocean temperatures that are mostly running warmer than normal. 

Running Out Of Hurricane Names, Again

It looks as though, for the second year in a row, they're going to run out of names for Atlantic hurricanes. There's just been too many.  

Powerful Hurricane Sam swirling in the central Atlantic 
northeast of the Leeward Islands earlier this week. 

Currently, Hurricane Sam is heading north in the central Atlantic Ocean, and Tropical Storm Victor is sputtering around the eastern Atlantic. Neither poses a real threat to land.

That leaves just one name left on the list, Wanda.  (When that forms, we can hope that one stays out to sea as well, so we can call it a Fish Storm Named Wanda). 

Ahem. 

Anyway, the National Hurricane Center's annual list of hurricane names doesn't include ones starting with Q, X, Y and Z, since there's so few suitable names starting with those letters.  So they have to find an alternative.

This never used to be a problem, because we both seem to be having more tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, and small little wimpy storms that haven't been detected in the past are now being spotted due to better technology. 

In 2005 and last year, the hurricane name list was exhausted, so the National Hurricane Center used Greek names instead. 

Last year holds the record with the most named storms - 30 of 'em - and some of the late season ones were strong.  Greek names often sound similar to one another and that was the trouble last year.  Toward the end of the 2020 season we had storms named Zeta, Eta and Theta, so you can see how that can get confusing. 

To avoid the confusion this year, the National Hurricane Center came up with a full list of supplemental names. It's basically a whole fresh season of names, just in case . So if anything forms after Wanda, they'll be named Adria, Braylen, Caridad, Deshawn, Emery and so on. 

We can be very sure we won't get to the end of the supplemental list, thank goodness. For the record, the last three names on that list are Tayshaun, Viviana and Will.

 That we're running out of the regular list of names definitely means we've had a very busy hurricane season. 

Another way to look at any given hurricane season, one that gives in my opinion a more complete picture of the season is ACE or Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

ACE adds up the lifespan and intensity of each hurricane and tropical storm that forms.  A wimpy little tropical storm that only lasts a day or two won't contribute much ACE.  A long lasting and powerful hurricane, like Sam, will contribute lots of ACE.

As of September 30, tropical storms and hurricanes this year had accumulated a total of 121 on the ACE index. With two ongoing systems and more likely, we might well exceed 150 for the season. That's definitely above normal, but not record breaking.  A normal season will accumulate 66 to 111 points on the ACE scale.

ACE indexes for a season vary widely year to year.  It's been as low as about 20 in 1983 to around 250 in the destructive year of 2005.

This system isn't perfect, of course because it doesn't take into account damage suffered by us humans.  A wimpy tropical storm making landfall can cause a damaging flood. Meanwhile, a powerful, long lasting hurricane like Sam can avoid land altogether, causing little suffering for us landlubbers.

On the bright side, after a terrible first half of the season, when it seemed almost every tropical storm or hurricane that formed ended up hitting the United States, we've had a break.

The storms that formed over the past month or so have steered clear of the states. There's nothing on the immediate horizon that suggests anything else is coming. But the hurricane season lasts through November, so there's still time, unfortunately, for another punishing strike by a tropical storm or hurricane.

Fred And Grace: Flood Disasters In The Making

Earthquake destruction in Haiti on Saturday. Now, Tropical
Storm Grace is  headed toward the island, which will 
cause even more suffering. 

 Since it's August the Atlantic Ocean tropical storm and hurricane potential is now rising rapidly toward peak season by September. 

There are two tropical systems in the news, neither of which seem at the moment anyway to be destined to become powerhouse hurricanes. But both are potential big time weather disasters. As if we need more. 

The first is former and probably soon to be Tropical Storm Fred. It got wrecked over the past couple of days by unfavorable atmospheric conditions and a tangle with land around Cuba. (Tropical storms tend to fall apart over land, but can strengthen over water).

Zombie Fred was in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning and is expected to return to status as real live Tropical Storm Fred today.  The National Hurricane Center thinks it will come ashore in the western Florida panhandle or southern Mississippi overnight Monday or early Tuesday. 

It'll never really get its act together in terms of high winds. At least that's the current forecast. But it will dump heavy rain from in the Southeast. That seems especially true in the mountains of North Georgia and on into the interior Carolinas.

It's been wet down there lately, so the expected half foot or more of rain this upcoming week in the southern Appalachians sounds like a recipe for dangerous and deadly flash floods.  Stay tuned for that. 

I'm even more worried about Tropical Storm Grace.  

Haiti suffered another terrible earthquake on Saturday. At last report, the 7.2 magnitude quake has already resulted in more than 300 confirmed deaths, and that toll is expected to rise sharply.  There's widespread destruction from the quake in what is already the Western Hemisphere's poorest nation.

Which brings us to Tropical Storm Grace.  Like Fred, Grace is not expected to be a wind powerhouse, at least not in the next few days. But it will pass over or near Haiti tomorrow, with torrential downpours and gusty winds. 

This causes an extreme nightmare for Haiti. For one thing, steep slopes made unstable by the earthquake are prone to land slides in Grace's expected heavy rain, which would lead to more destruction and death in a part of the world that certainly doesn't need it. 

The storm will also surely seriously disrupt relief and rescue operations to the max.  This is basically a worst case scenario.

Like Fred, it seems like Grace will eventually affect Cuba, Florida and maybe other parts of the southeastern United States in the coming days. 

Forecasters Were Right About Zombie Eta

Once-Hurricane Eta is expected to be reborn and 
possibly become a tropical storm threat in South
Florida and perhaps the Gulf Coast states.

Hurricane Eta, as we well know, unleashed some terrible flooding on Nicaragua and Honduras this week.

The storm has killed at least 57 people in Central America, and to me it looks like unfortunately, that toll is certain to rise.  

The only "good" news is this won't be as bad as Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which is believed to have killed 11,000 people in the same region. 

There's more evidence today that Eta is not done yet. 

The center of Eta's remains poked back out into the western Caribbean Sea just off the coast of Honduras overnight.  

Thunderstorms are once again firing around the center of what is now a tropical depression.  A reborn Tropical Storm Eta now seems inevitable. Zombie Eta is about to arrive.

Eta will never again reach the intensity it had as a monster Category 4 hurricane when it hit Nicaragua a few days ago.  There's too many complicating factors, like wind shear aloft, interaction with land, and a broad circulation in Eta that will take time to get its act together. 

But Eta will be over very warm water, so it will intensify into a pretty strong tropical storm. There's even an outside chance it could become a hurricane again.  Intensity forecasts are tricky with tropical systems, and this one is no exception 

Once again in this busy Atlantic tropical storm season, the United States looks like it's in play.  Eta will head northeastward and hit Cuba toward Sunday.

From there, things might get a little weird.  A storm in the upper atmosphere in the western Gulf of Mexico seems like it wants to pull Eta north toward the southern tip of Florida, then westward into the central Gulf of Mexico. From there, who knows?

November tropical storms do have some trouble surviving north of the Caribbean, due to stronger upper level winds this time of year. But they do happen. It's still hurricane season. 

At this point, Eta looks like it will never again be a powerful wind maker.  But it certainly has a shot of unleashing some nasty floods on southern Florida, which has already had a very soggy autumn.  Stay tuned! 

Laura's Destruction, Storm Surge Issues, VERY Accurate Forecast, Bad Gulf Luck And More

The last of Hurricane Laura faded over Arkansas last night, and its remnants will produce potentially flooding rains over parts of the Tennessee Valley today. 

Flooding and wind destruction Thursday in 
Cameron, Louisiana. Photo by David J.
Phillip/AP

Hurricane Laura will be remembered mostly for its extreme wind damage.  At least six deaths have so far been attributed to Laura.  That's a huge tragedy, but the death toll is pretty low for such a terrible storm.  Evacuations and people heeding warnings probably very much contributed to the relatively low death toll. 

Now that Laura is going down in the history books, I have some final thoughts and answers to some questions.

STORM SURGE 

Very strong hurricanes like Laura of course produce a lot of wind damage, but these storms also contain terrible, deadly storm surges.

There was a nasty storm surge with Laura, but it wasn't as bad as feared, and hit mostly unpopulated areas.

As the Weather Channel and other outlets point out, a few factors came together to prevent any confirmed 20 foot storm surges, the type that had been predicted.

First, Hurricane Laura came ashore at Cameron, Louisiana and moved north into Lake Charles, causing all that wind damage. However, the worst storm surge in a northward moving hurricane is immediately east of the eye. Strong southerly winds in that part of a hurricane would drive water onshore into the Gulf Coast. 

Because the hurricane moved directly over Cameron and Lake Charles, the hurricane force winds came out of the east as the eye approached the coast. The wind wasn't pushing the water onshore as much as it would have if the wind had been from the south. 

The result was about a nine foot storm surge in these two cities rather than 20 feet.  The storm surge probably was higher to the east of Laura's path. However, areas where the wind blasted ashore from the south was low, swampy ground where hardly anybody lives and there are almost no tidal gauges. 

Storm surges were higher with Hurricane Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Ike in 2008.  Those two hurricanes were bigger in area than Hurricane Laura.  A larger storm in size would push more water onshore than a smaller one. 

BAD GULF LUCK

A worst case scenario for hurricanes is if they are already strong and still strengthening as they make landfall. A hurricane that's growing stronger has a better ability to bring more powerful winds a few thousand feet overhead down to the surface than a weakening hurricane would.

In three of the past four years, very powerful hurricanes were strengthening as they hit the Gulf Coast. Category 4 Hurricane Harvey did that in 2017.  So did Category 5 Hurricane Michael in 2018. Now we have Hurricane Laura, Category 4 and just below Category 5 strength hitting Louisiana.

I think the Gulf Coast has had enough hurricanes for awhile.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ROCKS!

The National Hurricane Center always does great work during hurricane season, but with Hurricane Laura, they really shined. 

Hurricanes are notoriously difficult to predict. Their paths and strength can veer off in all kinds of directions.  This time, the NHC pretty much nailed it. 

Three and a half days before landfall, the NHC said Hurricane Laura would make landfall somewhere near Cameron, Louisiana.  The exact position of Laura's landfall was just 0.6 miles from that prediction.  A forecast of that accuracy was basically an impossible feat but the meteorologists at the NHC pulled it off. That's pretty incredible. 

Forecasting a hurricane's strength is even more of a formidable challenge.  For at least four days in advance, the NHC said Hurricane Laura would strengthen quickly once it reached the Gulf of Mexico.  The NHC plays things conservatively, so at first they weren't publicly forecasting a Category 4 storm at first, but made it clear that residents of Louisiana and Texas definitely had something to worry about.

I'm sure this saved a lot of lives. 

LAURA'S SENSE OF IRONY

A Confederate statue called the South's Defenders Memorial Monument that consisted of a flag bearing soldier looking over the local courthouse lawn.  It's been creating quite a bit of controversy in Lake Charles, but the county government recently voted to leave the monument in place. That didn't thrill the large Black Lives Matter contingent in the region.

However, Hurricane Laura knocked the soldier off the pedestal, and by Thursday, the figure was a broken mess on the court house lawn, along with the rest of the debris. I guess that takes care of that!

UP NEXT

Hurricane season is in full swing, and it ain't over yet.  The National Hurricane Center is watching two systems way out in the Atlantic.  They are not yet anywhere near a threat, and might or might not develop. But the chances are there, so we'll have to watch those little storms in the next week in case they develop into new hurricanes

NEW ENGLAND STORMS

As expected, severe storms developed over New York and southwestern New England yesterday.  Some storms developed into supercells, and tornado warnings went out. 

One storm in particular produced what I think is a likely tornado around the adjacent towns of North Haven, Hamden and Branford, Connecticut. There are reports of major damage to houses and widespread tree damage.

I'm pretty sure National Weather Service meteorologists will be investigating that area today to determine for sure whether it was a tornado or destructive straight line winds.

At first, it looked like the next storm for us here in Vermont would just be a chilly, steady rain on Saturday.  Some indications indicate the storm might now go by just to our northwest and lift a warm front to near or just north of the Canadian border.

If that happens, there's a low but real chance we could have weather problems similar to Connecticut's on Thursday,  If we get some clearing in the afternoon - which is iffy - that would destabilize the air. 

There will be strong winds aloft, which would change direction and speed with height. If the skies clear, some strong thunderstorms could develop, and some of those could start rotating. Worst case scenario would be a few severe thunderstorms and a very slight risk of a brief tornado.

This, as noted, is extremely iffy, and we'll have a better sense of what might go on by tomorrow morning. 

California Fires, Smoke, Laura, Marco, Storms And Us

 Wildfires in California continue to burn through much of the San Francisco Bay area and northern and central parts of the state.  So, once again, there's another extreme fire season out west.  

No end in sight with massive 
California wildfires

Vox has a great explainer as to why this week's wildfires are so extreme and weird.  It started with that very rare lightning barrage last weekend across northern California. It's really dry out there and those thunderstorms had very little rain with them. 

But they had a LOT of lightning strikes. Here's a money quote from Vox:

"'We had close to 11,000 strikes in a matter of three days,' said Brice Bennett, a spokesperson for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) 'With an already warm weather pattern and very, very dry conditions here in California, with those lightning strikes coming through, over 367 new fires were started.'"

Those spot lightning fires merged and congealed into three massive fires. Two of them are already among the top five largest in California history, and they're not even close to being contained yet.

We know that wildfires are common in California, but they usually burn in dense forests inland from the Pacific Ocean or through dry shrub lands in southern California.

These fires started much closer to the coast, invading the state's famed redwood forests, which almost never catch fire. Some redwoods, perhaps some that were 1,000 years old, were likely destroyed this week. 

Of course, Covid-19 is making matters worse. California prison inmates are often called upon to fight wildfires, but many were released from prison to ease Covid risks. Others are under quarantine, or sick, or can't travel to fires due to restrictions.  Seasoned firefighters need to practice social distancing, and I imagine that hampers the cooperation needed to battle the fires.

The fires have already burned more acreage than in an entire wildfire season in California. Keep in mind, this is just the start of the fire season.  Wildfires usually peak in California between mid-September and early November.

Plus, to politicize a bit, our Dear Leader Trump is not helping much so far.  He is reported to blame California again, repeating his bizarre "logic" from the past two years.  He said, "You gotta clean your floors. You gotta clean your forests. They have many, many years of leaves and broken trees.. .We say 'You gotta get rid of the leaves. You gotta get rid of the debris, You gotta get rid of fallen trees.'"

Sigh. 

California has more than 30 million acres of forests. It's hard enough to do leaf and debris removal each spring on my one-acre plot in Vermont.  Trump has no idea what it would be like to "clean" 30 million acres. And doing this somehow without wrecking the forest ecosystem? 

Here's another Covid related problem with the wildfires:  Air pollution is though to make symptoms in many people worse than they otherwise would be. Smoke from the wildfires made parts of California suffer the worst air pollution in the world at some points last week. 

The smoke is spreading throughout the West.  Actually, it's spreading all over the country. Even here in Vermont, we will often see hazy skies over the next several days at least because of the wildfires, thoug pollution levels here won't rise to dangerous levels.

TROPICAL STORMS

Meteorologists with the National Hurricane Center are still carefully watching Tropical Storms Laura and Marco. 

Forecasts for these two systems will inevitably change, but at the moment, Tropical Storm Laura, near Puerto Rico this morning, only had top winds of 40 mph. Laura is forecast to slowly strengthen, but it also looks like it will struggle as it encounters land in Hispaniola and Cuba. Once it gets past Cuba, Laura could still easily turn into a dangerous hurricane when it eventually reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco is just about to pass Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enter the western Gulf of Mexico.  It has top winds of 50 mph. It is forecast to strengthen for a time, then perhaps weaken amid strong high level winds in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. I would also note that Marco seemed to be overachieving this morning, strengthening faster than many meteorologists predicted. 

Unlike earlier forecasts, Marco is now expected to become a hurricane later today.

Forecasts for the two storms will likely change as new information comes in, so stay tuned. 

By the way, clickbait on social media is saying that Laura and Marco will get close enough together to merge into a mega hurricane.  That is total hype. Not happening. There is a 100% chance that they will NOT merge into a mega hurricane. The two storms might affect each others' path and strength somewhat, but tropical storms and hurricanes don't merge to become super storms. Just chill, OK?

SEVERE WEATHER

As expected a few isolated strong to severe storms erupted in Vermont yesterday, but it was nothing too extreme. Trees came down along Route 30 near Lake St. Catherine, and the same happened nearby along Route 140 in Middletown Springs, according to storm reports. 

Some relatively strong storms were moving through far southern Vermont early this morning, but basically we get a break from a storm threat today. 

Scattered showers and storms, some of which could be on the strong side, could erupt in Vermont tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday, but forecast details are iffy at this point. It doesn't look like there will be anything super widespread, except possibly on Tuesday.  Once again, stay tuned.