Former Hurricane Humberto, Reborn As Storm Amy, Blasts UK With 96 MPH Winds

Storm Amy, which had its origins in Hurricane 
Humberto, slammed much of the UK with damaging
winds. Here, a derelict building crashed down on
a car in Glasgow, Scotland. 

The UK was just blasted by what used to be Hurricane Humberto. 

At least one death has been reported in Ireland, in what has been re-named Storm Amy by the UK Met Office.  

Gusts as high as 96 mph were reported in the Inner Hebrides, a group of islands off the west coast of Scotland.  Northern Ireland recorded its highest October wind gust on record, at 92 mph. 

Storm Amy also set a record for the deepest area of low pressure in the UK during the month of October. In general, the lower the air pressure at the center of a storm, the stronger the storm is. 

As of Saturday morning local time, 62,000 homes and businesses across Scotland were without power and another 22,000 had no electricity in Northern Ireland, the BBC reported. 

Winds were not as strong further south, but still gusty enough to be dangerous. All eight of London's royal parks closed Saturday and opening times will be delayed Sunday, says the BBC. 

This past week, Hurricane Humberto transitioned to what is know as an extratropical storm - which is basically they type of system most storms are.

Hurricane have warm core and no warm and cold fronts. Extratropical storms have colder cores and those weather fronts. Once hurricanes get far enough north and away from the warm water needed to feed them, one of two things will happen.

The hurricane might simply dissipate. Or, especially if there is another disturbance around, like a cold front, the dying hurricane might reinvent itself as a regular storm.  Since the storm had its origins in the tropics, that energy might be an added boost to the re-formed storm.

That's what happened to Humberto. It transitioned to an extratropical storm. The UK Met Office even gave it a new name - Amy - so we no longer call it be its dead name, which was Humberto.  (The Met Office gives names to the powerful storms that often sweep the UK, especially in the winter. ) 

Storm Amy took off into the North Sea today, so conditions were improving in the UK and Ireland. 

Houses Collapse in NC Ocean As Hurricanes Humberto, Imelda Get Really Weird

Of of seven houses that fell into the ocean at Buxton,
North Carolina floats in the surf generated by
Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda. The house in
the background collapsed soon afterwards, 
done in by the high surf and debris from the
houses that had already fallen. 

That weird pairing of Hurricanes Imelda and Humberto has stayed well offshore the United States, but that didn't prevent them from causing damage. 

Six homes collapsed into the powerful waves stirred up by the hurricanes in Buxton, North Carolina. That's on the vulnerable Outer Banks of coastal North Carolina.   

The storms remained hundreds of miles off the North Carolina coast, but hurricane waves can travel a thousand miles or more. 

Five of the homes collapsed Tuesday within 45 minutes of each other. A sixth collapsed later. 

All six were not occupied because they had been declared uninhabitable after they were damaged from waves in August. Those waves were generated by offshore hurricane Erin. 

Last night, a seventh home collapsed into the waves on the Buxton shore.

The seven homes lost to the ocean brings the total that collapsed into the waves to 19 in Buxton and Rodanthe, North Carolina in the last five years.

As of this morning, Hurricane Imelda and now-former hurricane Humberto were still stirring up big waves and surf up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Local officials in North Carolina said more beach houses might collapse into the water. 

Part but certainly not all of the problem is climate change. Sea levels are rising, so waves during storms can extend further inland. 

Also, land overall in eastern North Carolina is sinking, too. The North Carolina Outer Banks are skinny barrier islands which have also always shifted and moved over time. 

It's probably not a good idea to build on unstable barrier islands, with or without climate change. 

This week, the waves hitting the Outer Banks were especially powerful, thanks to the dual efforts of Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda, far offshore. 

Hurricane Imelda hit Bermuda early this morning with strong winds. I don't have early reports of the outcome, but Bermuda is among the most hurricane-proof islands in the world. 

STRANGE INTERACTION

Schematic showing the wind flow around Hurricanes
Humberto and Imelda a couple days ago. They
were close enough to create one big wind
field.  You can see the calm eyes (blue shading,
indicating lighter winds). Also, halfway between 
the storms, the two circulations canceled each
other out, creating another small pocket
of light winds. 

I've been telling you in the past week about how Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda have interacted with one another, since they have been oddly close to one another. 

Humberto was initially the more powerful storm and had dominance over Imelda. 

Humberto, being the bigger, macho one, pulled Imelda away from the southeast U.S. coast, sparing the Carolinas a much bigger disaster.

Though each hurricane had its own internal core circulation, their close proximity created an even larger overall circulation, with an odd calm spot in the ocean halfway between the two storms.  

Then a funny thing then happened. Imelda grew stronger and became the dominate storm. The dance between the two hurricanes ended with Imelda shoving Humberto northward into a cold front, which turned Humberto into a regular, non-tropical, albeit still strong storm. 

The move left room for Imelda to strengthen further, enabling it to blast into Bermuda last night. 

The experience turned Humberto transsexual, in a way. Now that it's a non-tropical storm, Humberto is a powerful storm in the Atlantic, complete with a warm front and a stormy cold front and lots of dangerous winds. The UK Met Office has renamed it Amy. 

Storm Amy is expected to create widespread wind gusts in the 60 to 70 mph across Scotland and northern England. Some parts of northwest Scotland could see gusts to 95 mph. 

Now that Imelda is past Bermuda, it, too, has just transitioned to a non-tropical storm as of early this afternoon. It will sort of follow Humberto Amy into the North Atlantic, but it remains to be seen whether former Imelda will affect the British Isles.    

Now that Humberto and Imelda are out of our hair, the National Hurricane Center is watching two new areas. 

A disturbance not far from Miami is forecast  to move northwestward across Florida. There's a low chance it could become a weak tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico in a few days. Whatever happens, large parts of Florida should expect heavy rain over the next 

Forecasters are also watching another weather disturbance emerging off the west coast of Africa. It, too could develop into a tropical storm next week. 

VIDEO:

Video shows collapse of homes and lots of debris as five homes collapse into the waves in Buxton, North Carolina on Camp Hatteras.  Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

 

Humberto, Imelda Find Love After All In A New World Of Category 5 Hurricanes

Weakening Hurricane Humberto, right, and strengthening
Hurricane Imelda, of the Southeast U.S. coast in this
mornings satellite photo. High clouds extending all
the way to New England are the warm "exhaust" 
from the storms. The two hurricanes will 
head east out to sea. 

Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda continue to foster their close relationship in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, now pretty far offshore of the United States.  

I painted the two very close to each other tropical systems as a sort of tumultuous couple in my Saturday post. One of many guesses were that Humberto would accelerate away leaving a jilted Imelda to wander near the U.S. coastline. 

But, instead, they worked things out. Humberto is tugging Imelda along for a cruise across the Atlantic Ocean.

That comes as a big relief of the United States, because it means no landfall, no big flood, no disaster . Instead, the Southeast is just seeing relatively minor coastal effects like rain, gusty, non-damaging winds and some rough surf and rip currents. 

It turns out Humberto and Imelda were made for each other.

They are incredibly close together by tropical storm standards, with only 580 miles separating them as of yesterday. In the past only nine pairs of tropical storms or hurricanes have come as close or closer to each other as Humberto and Imelda, according to meteorologist Michael Lowry. 

Imelda is now swept up in the atmospheric steering currents created by Humberto and both are heading northeastward together out into the open Atlantic. Both will eventually die in the cold waters out there. 

Before that could happen, Imelda strengthened into a hurricane this morning with top winds of 75 mph. It could achieve winds of 100 mph within a day or two. Imelda is expected to pass near Bermuda Wednesday night or Thursday morning, so they could receive quite a blow.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto is to the northeast of Imelda and tugging her along. Humberto was briefly a Category 5 storm with winds of 160 mph. But as of this morning, it was down to 100 mph. Hurricanes are like big chimneys.

Warm air is pushed upward into the upper atmosphere.  The "exhaust" from the Imelda's chimney is helping to suppress Humberto's strength.  Also, strong upper level winds caused in part by the atmospheric chaos created by two big storms is also weakening Humberto by stripping its intense thunderstorms away from its center. 

You could see the "exhaust" from Imelda on satellite photos yesterday and this morning.  

And overhead here in Vermont. That warm air belching from hurricanes often takes the form of high thin cirrus clouds. Those thin clouds that went south to north over Vermont yesterday afternoon and evening, and produced another nice sunset, was part of the exhaust plume from Imelda. 

That Humberto reached Category 5 status before its tango with Imelda is disconcerting, since these Category 5 monsters are becoming more frequent in the Atlantic Ocean. Category 5 hurricanes are the worst of the worst, with top wind speeds of at least 156 mph. 

Humberto was the 12th Atlantic Category 5 hurricane in the last decade, and the fourth in the past two years. Beryl and Milton were Category 5s last year, and this year we had Erin and Humberto. Unlike last year's Category 5s, neither storm bothered the United States all that much.  

Hurricane season is not over, and there could be a couple or few more tropical storms or hurricanes between now and the end of November. However, the National Hurricane Center says they don't expect any new tropical storms to form over the next week or so.  

Humberto And Imelda Continue Their Dance; Will Carolinas Escape Trouble?

As pot this morning, Hurricane Humberto to the right
is a classic, intense hurricane. Meanwhile, that elongated
cluster of clouds in eastern Cuba and the Bahamas
will become Tropical Storm Imelda, Click on this
photo to make it bigger and easier to see.

The Southeast continues to watch super powerful Hurricane Humberto and what as of early this morning was still soon to be Tropical Storm Imelda. 

The news is cautiously optimistic for the Carolinas as early hints take what will be Imelda a little further offshore than previously forecast.  

The reason: Hurricane Humberto is by far the dominant one in this relationship.  It achieved Category 5 status Saturday with top winds of 160 mph.  Category 5s used to be relatively rare, but they seem to have gotten more common.

Hotter water brought on by climate change is powering up many more hurricanes to Category 5 than we used to see.

 This hasn't been a particularly busy Atlantic hurricane season so far, and yet this is the second Category 5 of the year. Hurricane Erin reached that status in August.

Humberto was marginally weaker early this morning with top winds of 155 mph, so still wicked powerful. 

Since Humberto is so strong, compared to relatively weak Imelda, it will have more influence over the situation. Imelda is still forecast to move northward through the Bahamas parallel to the Florida east coast today, through Monday into Tuesday. 

Imelda didn't strengthen into a tropical storm Saturday as some forecasts indicated. But it was getting better organized just off the northeast coast of Cuba early this morning so today will be the dawn of Tropical Storm Imelda. I guess she didn't want to be a Saturday baby or something. 

The water north of Cuba and toward the Bahamas is quite warm, and that will fuel Imelda.  Meteorologists think it will manage to become a hurricane by around late Monday night or Tuesday morning. 

Imelda will still be weaker than big bad Humberto, though. probably will manage to become a hurricane by around late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Between the influence of Humberto and the fact a weather disturbance over the interior southeastern United States won't be able to draw Imelda toward the coast, it's looking a bit safer for the Carolinas, and Georgia, and even Florida for that matter. 

Instead, the best guess is by midweek, Imelda will slow down, and take a turn to the northeast, and follow big Humberto into the north Atlantic, where both will eventually die in the cold water up there. 

That's not to say the Southeast coast is completely out of the woods. A few forecasts still bring Imelda close to or even on the coast, which would be a mess, but most keep it offshore. 

Even if forecast is accurate and Imelda lingers offshore, it will probably come close enough to send heavy rain bands and gusty winds into coastal areas of South Carolina and parts of North Carolina. And maybe Georgia and coastal Florida. 

Imelda could also bring some storm surges and rough seas to the Southeast coastline. Because it will be moving so slowly, it'll have a lot of time to pound and erode the beaches.

Plus, remember, Humberto is still out there and is a monster. Much like Erin in August, it will send swells and rough surf to the entire East Coast to augment what Imelda plans to do. 

We might be lucking out with our unfriendly couple Humberto and Imelda in that the U.S. avoids another direct hit by a hurricane. The two storms will cause trouble for us, but thankfully, probably no cataclysm. We don't need another one. 

No guarantees, but it's possible a hurricane might not make landfall in the United States this year. It's slightly past the peak of hurricane season, and there's plenty of time for tropical trouble in October. But so far, unlike the devastation of recent years, the U.S. might get a break from hurricanes. 

With all the other weather and climate disasters this year - and there has been many of them - along with the nation's political instability, we'll take any break we can.  

Hurricane Humberto, Soon-To-Be Tropical Storm Imelda Begin Their Dangerous Dance

This morning's satellite phot shows powerful 
Hurricane Humberto spinning gracefully on the
right side of the photo, while what should become
Tropical Storm Imelda struggles to organize
near northeastern Cuba. 

The Carolinas, Georgia and Virginia are now on alert for that dance we told you about the other day between Hurricane Humberto and what will soon be Tropical Storm Imelda. 

They're going to be too close to each other, which means they might do weird things, like tumultuous romantic couples do. The two storms might try rotating around each other, or one will pull the other in odd directions or one of them might stall, you never know. 

This is a HUGE forecast headache for everybody, mostly because so much is at stake.  This situation has the potential to cause immense, life-threatening floods in the Carolinas.   

Following what has become a very common trend in Atlantic hurricanes, Humberto in the past couple of days blew up from a humble tropical storm to a Category 4 monster, with top wind speeds of 145 mph. It's possible it will end up as another Category 5 in the next day or so.

As of this morning, Humberto was churning a good distance - 375 miles or so - northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. 

The good news in this messy scenario is Humberto will stay well offshore of the East Coast. A landfall would be devastating for a hurricane of this strength. So at least we avoid that. 

If not for wannabe Imelda, this situation would be very much like big powerful Hurricane Erin in August. Humberto will expand as it heads northwestward, then northward, then out to sea. It would throw some dangerous rip currents, and some coastal flooding here and there up and down the East Coast. 

IMELDA INTERFERES

But the East Coast is not out of the woods, thanks to Wannabe Imelda. As of early this morning, the center of what should become Tropical Storm Imelda was near the northeastern coast of Cuba. 

It might already be a tropical storm by the time you read this, because this thing was on the cusp of becoming one as of dawn Saturday. 

Early guesses is it will move northward through the Bahamas through early Tuesday, parallel to the Florida coast. 

But that's something of a guess, considering Humberto will also be lurking nearby, like a fickle Latin lover with his eyes on Imelda. 

By Monday morning, Imelda will probably be somewhere over the Bahamas while big, fat Humberto makes its closest approach to Imelda to its east. 

Because Humberto is so strong, it's probably going to be the boss in its relationship with Wannabe Imelda .The trouble is, Humberto isn't exactly being clear on what he's going to do with Imelda.

What follows is a scenario a lot of forecasters have settled on, at least as of Saturday morning. Definitely expect both changes to the hurricane predictions forecast and some surprises. The relationship between Humberto and Imelda could become soap opera-level tumultuous. 

THE TROPICAL TELENOVELA

At first, on Sunday and Monday, the two storms would roughly move in tandem toward the north or northwest, like a bride and groom walking down the aisle. 

Then Humberto would part ways, accelerating to the Northeast. That might tug Imelda east a little bit, as if it wanted to chase after Humberto. ("Please!!! Come back!!!,"  I can imagine Imelda wailing).

The tug east would be great as it might prevent a United States landfall. There would still be heavy rain, flooding, coastal surges, wind, that sort of thing. Bad for sure, but not a worst  case scenario.

But Humberto might do other things. It might initially tug at Imelda, but then leave it sitting there like a jilted date, just offshore of the Carolinas.  That would keep dumping and dumping rain on the eastern Carolinas, causing yet another unwanted catastrophic flood there. 

Unlike Helene last year, the big flood, if it happens, would mostly but maybe not completely avoid the mountains of western North Carolina. 

Or, after Humberto departs, Imelda might wander indecisively and erratically off the U.S Southeast Coast, maybe looking for another hurricane to hook up with. 

A wild card is we don't know how strong Imelda will get. If it remains a relatively weak tropical storm, Imelda would likely be more obedient to Humberto. If it develops into a stronger hurricane, Imelda might get annoyed at misogynistic Humberto and pull a surprise of her own. 

Then, all bets are off on what Imelda might do. 

I guess we just need to do what we do with all soap operas and telenovelas. Just sit and wait for the next  episode. Annoyed meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center are probably taking a cue from Carol Burnett and calling this mess between Humberto and Imelda "As The Stomach Turns."

VERMONT EFFECTS

Pretty much the only easy part of the hurricane forecast is how all this is going to affect us here in Vermont. The answer is: It won't.

Which means our drought will start to reintensify.

Some scattered showers Friday afternoon and evening were the icing on Thursday's welcome, delightful, soggy cake. For instance, a brief downpour dumped another 0.12 inches on Burlington.

While our tropical drama plays out far to our south, strong high pressure will park itself overhead. Some clouds might come in this afternoon and evening as a disturbance zips by to our south but no rain will come of it. 

Sunday and Monday and probably Tuesday look dry and warm and sunny.  Highs in the warmer valleys could touch 80 degrees, which is unusual but not unheard of for this time of year.

Humberto - far offshore by midweek - will be one of a few atmospheric factors that should pull even stronger, and cooler high pressure down from east of Hudson Bay later in the week. That will probably re-introduce the chance of frost for a couple mornings before warm, sunny weather returns afterwards.

It still looks like our next chance of rain in Vermont won't come along until October 9 or so.