So Far, Nothing Terrible In Vermont, But The Test Is This Evening, Flood, Severe Threat Continues

Not much activity in Vermont as of 5:20 p.m. as this
National Weather Service radar showed. But there
was a mess of showers, thunderstorms and 
downpours across western and central New York, 

 Things have felt pretty safe weather wise in Vermont so far today, but it looks like the critical time will be between now and about midnight or so. Especially for the flood risk. 

Rain showers have zipped across Vermont all day,  mostly north of Route 2 as expected. 

Although some of the showers had briefly heavy rain, they haven't yet been enough to set off any flooding concerns. 

The main atmospheric dynamics and the approach of the cold front will occur over the next few hours. 

Heavy rain and thunderstorms have blossomed over western New York and especially southeast Ontario, All the was headed generally eastward.

Whether or not this translates to severe thunderstorms or flash flooding in Vermont remains to be seen. 

Storms

As of late this afternoon, the threat of severe storms was more iffy than the heavy rain. Overcast skies have kept the instability in check.  

 A special discussion from NOAAs Storm Prediction Center noted the clouds holding instability in check across northern New York and northern Vermont might be overwhelmed by the strong winds aloft. 

If some thunderstorms get going, they might be able to create some strong wind gusts and hail However, if big storms do form, they will be pretty isolated in nature. That means storm in  northern Vermont probably won't be widespread enough to t warrant any kind of severe thunderstorm watch. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says they've noted bit of converging air masses roughly along a line from Saranac Lake, New York to Montpelier, 

Strong to severe storms might still fire up along that line this evening. Maybe. It still remains to be seen. 

In southern Vermont, there have been breaks of sun, and it's a little warmer and more humid down there. So the ingredients are still in place for strong to severe storms down there .

Flooding

This still looks like the greater of the two threats. But that doesn't mean another Flood of '23 by any stretch of the imagination. 

However, that doesn't let us entirely off the hook. There could be some spots with flash flooding, especially in the northern Green Mountains and in the Northeast Kingdom. And maybe near that convergence zone on the Saranac Lake to Montpelier line, 

Heavy bursts of rain will occur almost everywhere in Vermont. So any place that gets repeatedly hit by downpours this evening and early tonight is at risk for flash flooding.

The heaviest rain seems to be running a little behind scheduled. Downpours could persist until midnight or even a little after, so if we get any flash flooding, it could continue into the early morning hours of Monday. 

The flood watch in the northern half of Vermont remains in effect until 8 a.m. Monday. 

All the influences going on with this evening's weather are touch and go, So we might see severe storms and flooding or, if we're lucky, this will be another whiff.

In this case, whiffs are good. No damage, no scary moments, then no complaints. But we still need to be on our toes into this evening. 

The cold front will pass overnight. We're still anticipating delightful weather tomorrow.