Showers, T-Storms, Few Severe Today In Vermont. Hot Times Ahead For Upcoming Week

Radar showed a batch of mostly light rain moving into 
the state this moving. That  should move out, followed by
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some could
be severe, especially south.  

 Editors Note: Posts might be irregular or short through at least Sunday as I'm traveling. I'll do my best!

OK, Now that my travel plans are out of the way: It's raining a little this morning in Vermont. Or at least parts of the state. 

Last week's weather has made things pretty parched, so we need it. It won't be a blockbuster rainfall for most of us, which is too bad. It won't make up for a dry week, a the upcoming week looks a bit arid, too. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY

The rain this morning is mostly a steady light rain moving in rapidly from New York State. It's zipping along, and should be pretty m much out of the state by early afternoon. Southern Vermont might only get a trace of rain out of this morning's little blip of rain. 

Then things get interesting. We could get some breaks of sun to roil the humid atmosphere a bit. Winds aloft will increase, and another disturbance ahead of a cold front will sweep in during the afternoon. 

The result is a risk of severe thunderstorms. They could happen anywhere in Vermont, but are most likely along and south of Route 4. A broad area from Indiana, Ohio, then through Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the southern half of New England is under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

That slight risk - a level 2 out of 5 alert level - includes southern Vermont.

Yellow area, including southern Vermont is under a 
level 2 out of 5 risk of severe storms today. Dark
green is level 1 out 5 risk. If there are severe
storms in Vermont today, the greatest danger
will be strong winds and lightning. 

That slight risk means there could be scattered instances of storm damage today. The risk is for strong gusty winds. There could be isolated instances of damaging hail, but that's less likely. 

 The rest of the state, along with northern New England and northern New York is under a marginal risk, alert level one out of 5. That means  a risk of isolated storm issues. 

It looks like the greatest risk of storms statewide is between 2 ad 8 p.m. today. You know the drill. 

If you have outdoor plans, keep an eye to the sky and have a way to receive severe storm warnings or other weather advisories. I'd also postpone that hike in the mountains to another day. 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY

The cold front will continue to approach as atmospheric ripples continue ahead of it. That means a continued  good chance of showers overnight tonight, with a few rumbles of thunder, too.

This state of affairs should continue Sunday as the cold front slips through. Most of the rain in the north will be in the morning and early afternoon. Southern Vermont has a better chance of  thunderstorms mixed in with rain and showers, but they don't look like they will be severe. 

It will be much cooler, but not cold, like last weekend. Highs should end up within a few degrees either side of 70.

Forecast total rainfall has increased a bit since yesterday. Because of the thunderstorms, rainfall will be super variable, with some communities not getting much at all, while two town over they have over an inch. 

But in general, now through Sunday, southern Vermont gets a half to a third of an inch of rain, while the northern half gets a half inch, give or take. 

All in all, a fairly unpleasant weather weekend. Sorry about that! But we need what rain we can get, so be thankful for that as your high school graduation picnics turn into downpour soaked dashes indoors. And please don't leave the cake out in the rain. 

HOT TIMES AHEAD

The upcoming week looks interesting, Not in terms of storms, but heat.

Monday will be nice enough, with sunshine low humidity and highs near 80s. Tuesday turns hot, with most of us in the 80s with some towns touching 90. At least the humidity on Tuesday will be low. 

Not so much for the rest of the week. Humidity will rise as the heat continues to build. 

Burlington had a chance Tuesday through Friday of seeing four consecutive days where temperatures get to at least 90 degrees. The National Weather Service is already putting us on alert that this could be a serious hot spell, with serious heat risk, especially for unhealthy people with little or no access to air conditioning. 

As far as rainfall, a weak disturbance embedded in the hot flow of air from the southwest could touch off some scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. But the storms don't look like they'll be particularly widespread. 

The heat and humidity has a good  chance of lasting beyond Friday.