July 2026 in Vermont Was Mostly Humid, And Stormy

Stormy skies over Lake Champlain in July. The month
of July was relatively hot and quite stormy across Vermont.

 Not that you need reminding, but July in Vermont this year was humid, stormy and kind of hot. 

As measured in Burlington, the average temperature was 73.7 which was 1.3 degrees above normal. That doesn't sound like July was that hot,  but it was the 15th hottest July out of the past 136 years of reliable records. 

I always have to throw in this caveat. Normal nowadays is not your grandfather's average Vermont weather. 

 "Normal" temperatures are based on the average of what we saw between 1990 and 2020, when climate change had already taken hold. 

If this July happened in the 1970s or something like that, July would have been about four degrees above average. Hot Julys have become the norm in Vermont. Six of the top 10 hottest Julys have hit since 2018. 

Overall, the rest of northern Vermont was warm and dry, though it was paradoxically a humid and stormy sort of dry. In other words, not all that much rain came out of those muggy and roiling skies.

Weather stations across northern Vermont reported a monthly average temperature of a little more than a degree above normal.

Burlington had 3.18 inches of rain, which was nearly an inch below average. That turned out to be the 61st driest July out of the past 144 years of reliable records. Most of the northern two thirds of the state were dry, too. Given the fact that showers and storms tend to make summer rainfall highly variable, there were pockets of above normal precipitation. 

Montpelier's rainfall was 4.74 inches of rain in July, which was about a half inch above normal, But 2.45 inches of that came in one ferocious thunderstorm on July 9,

When you got toward southwestern Vermont, it was a little cooler than the modern average, and on the wet side. Bennington's average July temperature was almost a degree cooler than normal, Bennington also had 6.45 inches of rain, which was 1.8 inches above normal,

Much like in Montpelier, Bennington's wet month was due to one storm. They had 3.75 inches of rain on July 28-30, as they were on the edge of that epic storm that caused extreme flooding in New York's Hudson Valley. 

That same storm dumped over five inches of rain on some towns in the far southern Green Mountains. 

STORMY MONTH

The first half of the month was especially stormy. 

July got off to a literal bang on the first day of the month. Hot, oppressively humid weather help light up the sky with waves of severe thunderstorms. The worst of the storms sprung up abruptly in the Champlain Valley, leaving a trail of damage across northern and central Vermont into New Hampshire. 

An area around Underhill, Westford, Essex and Cambridge suffered especially severe damage.  Another wave of storms later that night filled the sky with continuous lightning

On July 9 storms blasted across northern Vermont, especially up in the Northeast Kingdom, nailing areas around Burke Mountain with intense microbursts. Flash flooding hit the area around Barre, but luckily, the flooding was much less severe that the past three Julys. 

Vermont braced for a severe storm and oddly strong tornado threat on July 14 into the early morning hours of July 15. Wildfire smoke squelched many would-be storms, so the problem wasn't as widespread as feared. 

However, supercell thunderstorms spewing microbursts caused lots of damage in a stripe northwest to southeast through Rutland and Windsor counties. 

On July 16, showers and storms developed along a weak southward moving cold front. The storms looked lame on radar, but the gust front packed quite a punch. More trees fell across northern Vermont.

Also, wildfire smoke made an appearance in Vermont, as I alluded to above. The worse of it was at mid-month when some big fires flared up in Ontario and northern Minnesota. Those fires tapered off later in the final weeks of July, so the smoke thinned, too. Just some haze from blazes in the western United States. 

Looking ahead to August, NOAA is predicting a hot month for most of the nation. However, the forecast gives equal chances of above or below normal temperatures in an area from the Great Lakes through the Northeast, including Vermont. 

NOAA is leaning ever so slightly on the wet side, so that's essentially a toss-up, too 

After A Perfect Summer Weekend, Vermont's Weather Week Turns Hot, And For Some Of Us, Scary

An enhanced, level three out of five risk for 
severe storms is up for tomorrow night in the 
orange areas of this map. That's a rare risk level
for this part of the country. Damaging winds
are the biggest risk. But there could be large
hail or even a couple of tornadoes. 

Our perfect weather weekend in Vermont is over, and it's time to face reality. 

The forecast for the first part of this week, especially Tuesday turns very hot. 

And for many people, especially in northern parts of the state, the forecast turns frightening. A significant severe storm outbreak is now expected across northern New York and northern New England Tuesday evening and night. 

That includes Vermont, especially for areas along and north of Route 2.

More on that in a bit

You probably wouldn't call Sunday's weather cool, but at least as measured in Burlington, the low temperature was 57 degrees. was the "coldest" start to the day since June 24. 

But, Sunday afternoon temperatures reached the low to mid 80s, so summer lives on,

Today to an extent, and especially Tuesday, we will briefly experience the other side of summer. The side that's no so pleasant. The side that's uncomfortable, annoying, even dangerous, as noted above Let's get into the details, in chronologicalorder

TODAY

It will try to get hotter today, but a semi-warm front will try to interfere with that process with some clouds and maybe some showers. But the sun will be out much of the time.  The scattered showers will be pretty light, and mostly in northern Vermont late this afternoon and this evening, 

Highs will get well into the 80s. 

TUESDAY 

This time period will bring Vermont some of its most dramatic weather in years. There's still some question about how hot it will get. And how humid.

The forecast, as I noted yesterday, was for hot air to blast in from Montana and North Dakota. 

Large parts of the northern and central Rocky Mountains were absolutely insane yesterday. It was as hot as 116 degrees in Montana.  Several cities set all time record highs including 115 in Miles City, Montana,  111 in Billings, Montana, 109  in both Salt Lake City, Utah and Sheridan, Wyoming.  

It won't get to 116 here in Vermont thank goodness, but we do expect a one-day flash of intense heat. 

Highs should get well into the 90s amid increasing humidity. The forecast high in Burlington tomorrow is 98 degrees.  Which, believe it or not would not be a record high, as it was 100 degrees on that date in 1995.

It is possible, though somewhat unlikely, that a couple places in Vermont could touch 100 degrees tomorrow. 

The humidity Tuesday might be a little higher than previously expected. We noticed dew points in the 70s in parts of North Dakota yesterday. So we can at least expect dew points to be in the oppressive 65 to 70 degree range. 

It'll be pretty breezy tomorrow, too, so it will be a blast furnace kind of day. Needless to say, a heat advisory is up for most of Vermont. 

That all sets us up for what could be a scary Tuesday night

TUESDAY NIGHT

I haven't seen such a threatening severe thunderstorm forecast in years. A sharp cold front will be moving south from Quebec and hitting all that hot, humid air. Conditions are just right to produce what could be a helluva severe storm outbreak in northern areas especially. 

And it will hit on the 31st anniversary of one of the worse derechos in the regions history. Early on July 15, 1995 and intense band of storms caused widespread damage in the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. 

This time, the target is, as noted, northern New England. As it stands now, the biggest risk zone is along and north of a line from Massena, New York, to Burlington and St. Johnsbury, Vermont, Berlin, New Hampshire, and on up through the northwestern half of Maine. 

Those areas are under an enhanced, level three out of five level alert for severe storms Tuesday night an evening.  That's a rare designation for our region. The last time any part of Vermont was under an enhanced risk level was on July 16, 2024. 

Straight line winds is the main, but not only risk with these potential storms. These winds could be much more powerful than your standard issue severe thunderstorm. We're talking  maybe 70 to 80 mph  or more in a few locations. (As in all severe storm outbreaks, the area affected will have spotty areas with lots of damage, with other areas not seeing anything super dramatic.)

Large hail is a definite possibility. If you have a garage, put your car inside it tomorrow night. 

There's also, once again,  a tornado risk with this outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says one or two tornados in the northern New England risk zone could be strong. That's an extremely rare thing to say for this neck of the woods. 

And consider this: The only place in the United States that might get a tornado tomorrow or tomorrow night is northern New England. I guess we're the new tornado alley>

This is also going to be a deceptive severe storm event. Usually, things get active in the mid and late afternoon and continue into the early evening. But at 6 p.m. tomorrow, it will probably be sunny and hot, with few if any signs of impending storms. 

But the storms should start to cross the border from Quebec toward 8 p.m. The risk of severe weather will probably continue until around 2 a.m. Wednesday. 

Nighttime storms are particularly dangerous, because it's harder to see them coming. And many people have shut off their phones for the night, so they can't receive severe storm or tornado warning.s 

This is an especially dangerous situation for campers in the woods. If you know anybody is doing that, tell them to get the hell out of the woods and to a safe place by early evening tomorrow.  Note that the 1995 derecho killed at least five campers in the Adirondacks. 

Another weird thing about this potential severe outbreak is its limited location, at least in the United States. (A broad area of southern Quebec is also under the gun with this system Tuesday afternoon and night).

Given that this is happening at night, the ability to sustain the storms will wane as we get later into the night. Also, the atmospheric wind patterns that will help make these storms so intense will probably start to break down by or shortly after after midnight. l 

So the storms will begin to fall apart as they head toward the southern half of Vermont.  By the time you get south of Route 4, there is only a marginal (one out of five on the risk scale) risk of severe weather. If you are in Bennington or Brattleboro, chances are you won't see any kind of thunderstorm, not even some lame garden variety thing. 

Back north, if this thing goes the way current forecasts suggest, there's going to be some pretty widespread power outages. A lot of trees will come down, some into homes, I imagine. Suddenly, I'm not so thrilled by the large trees in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

Obviously, forecasts can change. Volatile weather setups like this are notorious for being either worse, or much less severe than forecast.  One thing we can hope for is if this whole thing slows down. If the storms wait until later at night than forecast, then they probably won't be as severe. That's a hope, not a forecast. 

I obviously will have a big update tomorrow morning in this here blog thingy. 

Then, when we get to tomorrow night, have a way to receive weather warnings. A NOAA weather radio is a great resource.  I'm also betting local TV meteorologists will cut into regular broadcasting to provide warnings and updates as the storms loom. 

It's been a weird summer. Sunny and nice, but also very stormy. So here we go again. 

 

Gorgeous Vermont Weekend Underway; Weird Brief Hot Blast Coming; Severe Storms?

Bright pink lilies enjoy the morning sun this morning
in St. Albans, Vermont. The entire weekend is 
set to be sunny and warm. 

The weather in Vermont knows are schedule for now.  We want nice weekends in the summer and now we've got one on our hands.  

We've actually had a fair number of nice weekend days this summer, so we should be pretty happy with this summer.

This weekend still looks like the best one of the summer. Comfortable enough for vigorous activities like hiking to the summit of Camels Hump. 

Warm enough to jump off the rocks at a swimming hole and plunge into the refreshing, hopefully clean water.  Or, pleasant enough to weed the garden, or fall asleep in the hammock after reading a great novel. 

It's weekend weather endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

Today, we're off to a terrific start. As dawn broke this morning, temperatures statewide were in the comfortable 50s, with some low 60s right near Lake Champlain. The strong July sun will get us up to 80 degrees or so this afternoon. We'll see some wildfire smoke in the air, but it shouldn't get so thick to make us choke or worry too much about air quality. 

Humidity is often high in mid-July. Not today, or tomorrow. After the sun sets tonight, the temperature will crash down into the 50s again overnight. Except near 60 again near Lake Champlain. 

Sunday will be another winner. The only difference between today and tomorrow is Sunday will be a bit warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The sun will still shine, the humidity will stay low, and a little wildfire smoke will probably linger in the air. 

After The Weekend

After our stellar weekend, the weather will turn interesting during the week, following the general pattern we've seen this summer. 

As mentioned yesterday, a big heat dome is becoming established over the Rockies and northern Plains. There could well be some all-time record high temperatures in Montana, North Dakota and in Canada, parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.  

A renegade piece of that heat is set to escape from the Rocky Mountains, race east over southern Canada and blast down on us by Tuesday. 

We'll start to feel the heat Monday as highs get into the upper 80s. By Tuesday, the brief packet of heat should be here in New England. In Vermont, most of us should be in the 90s again, with the risk of some mid or even upper 90s in the hottest valleys. 

It will turn more humid, but not as steamy as it could possibly get. The air is coming from the dry West, after all. So we won't get the full tropical blast. 

Then things could get really interesting Tuesday night. A cold front will be approaching from Quebec. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has already flagged the risk of severe weather in northern New England later Tuesday or Tuesday night.  It's unusual for New England, at least, for NOAA to sniff this type of thing out days in advance.

It's not definite yet, it's possible nothing will happen. But some forecasters are already throwing around the words "supercell" or "derecho."

We'll keep an eye on this one as get closer to the event. 

Meanwhile, forget about all that. Enjoy this  gorgeous weekend. 

Fourth Year In A Row With Vermont Weather Trouble On July 9 or 10. Next Up, Pleasant, But Maybe Smoky, Then A Hot Flash

Torrential rains in St. Albans, Vermont during a strong
thunderstorm late Thursday afternoon. The same storm
 strengthened as it moved east, eventually causing
 substantial tree and power line damage
in the Northeast Kingdom. Flooding hit central Vermont

 It turns out we had weather trouble in Vermont around July 10 for the fourth  year in a row. 

The trouble hit a little early this year, on July 9, instead of July 10 like we saw in 2023, 2024 and 2025. But yesterday, we had flooding in and around Barre, and thunderstorm wind damage in the Northeast Kingdom. 

The core of the wind damage was in Lyndon and East Burke. Video showed numerous trees down along Route 114.  

Somebody in the video background suggests it was a tornado. Perhaps, but since all the trees appeared to fall in the same direction, at least as seen in the video clip, I suspect intense straight line winds.

Another batch of thunderstorms nearly stalled over central Vermont. It was enough to flood the streets of Barre, again. This was mostly poor drainage flooding and not quite as serious as in recent years. 

In Montpelier, nearly 2.5 inches of rain fell yesterday, including 1.75 inches within two hours. 

I guess we should be grateful over a trend line. The worst flooding hit statewide on July 10, 2023. In 2024, most of the destruction was across a broad band through central Vermont. In 2025, destructive flooding was limited to just parts of the Northeast Kingdom.  And yesterday, almost all of Vermont escaped unscathed, except in the Barre-Montpelier area and a small part of the Northeast Kingdom.

Even better, we're done with the rough weather for a little while, anyway. 

TODAY

It looks like the cold front as of 8 a.m this morning was draped across central Vermont, judging from a line of very light showers drifting southward.  The front is too weak to create any dangerous downpours or high winds. We'll have no major weather today. 

This morning started humid, but light north breezes will slowly dry the moisture out of the air. The sun will break through where it hasn't already, and we should make into the low 80s this afternoon.

WEEKEND

It's still looking like a terrific weekend if you love summer.  The humidity should remain low enough, and afternoon highs will reach the 80s under sunny skies. 

Dimmed sun, though. Smoke from wildfires in Quebec near James Bay will probably drift down into Vermont on those north winds. So the Green Mountains of Vermont might well be hidden by haze. I'm not sure whether we'd have enough smoke to trigger any air quality alerts. but we'll wait for more info on that.

NEXT WEEK

A heat dome is setting up in the western United States which will create record high temperatures in places like Montana and North Dakota, and other states.

A storm way up in central and northern Canada will pull a plume of that hot air eastward, arriving here Monday and Tuesday. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is calling it a "jailbreak heat," as it's escaping the heat dome where it originated. 

We should see highs near 90 on Monday and as high as the mid-90s Tuesday. Considering where the air is coming from, it will be pretty dry air.  The kind that doesn't feel quite as bad as most heat waves, but drains the moisture from your garden plants. You'll need to water.

The heat won't last long. If there's a northward bulge in the jet stream with the heat dome in the West, you need a southward dip in the jet stream in the East.

That will start to set up midweek. A cold front will come through Tuesday night or Wednesday. Probably with little fanfare. It won't get that cold, probably seasonably warm late in the week. 

As always, long range forecasts like that are subject to change. At least we have no scary storms or floods in our immediate future.

Strange, Sharp Line Between Rain and Clear Skies In Vermont This Morning, Another Hot Spell Looms

A tale of two Vermonts on this morning's satellite
photos. Thicker clouds in central Vermont denote
a band of moderate to briefly heavy rain. 
Meanwhile, northern Vermont is in the clear. 

 Another late start for my morning report as I'm just back from my trip to Maryland. 

Not long after I finally got my hutt out of bed,   I found quite a difference in the weather across Vermont. If you were in Rutland or White River Junction, it was chilly with a soaking rain around 9 a.m. Temperatures were only around 60 at 9 a.m.  

Drive a short distance north to Middlebury and the sun was partly out. By the time you got to Burlington, it was clear blue skies (aside from a slight hint of wildfire smoke) and it was a nice 74 degrees. 

The rain got a little further north than we thought it might yesterday.  That band of moderately heavy rain in central Vermont surprised me a bit. But at least it wasn't the flash-flood producing downpours that hit parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. 

REST OF TODAY

Here in Vermont, things should even out a little today, but it will take its time doing so. The north will stay generally sunny, while the rain in southern Vermont will slowly sink south into Massachusetts. It might take a good part of the day for the rain to finally end near the Massachusetts border.  

Because of the clouds in the south, northern Vermont will end up being the warm spot. It'll get into the low 80s there, while southern Vermont stays in the 70s. 

WEDNESDAY

Another hot spell arrives, but this one will be short and sweet - not as hot as the last go around, and it will only be a couple days' worth. Tomorrow will be sunny and in the upper 80s, with a few spot 90 degree temperatures here and there. 

The humidity will be noticeable, but not nearly as bad as it was a few days ago. Dew points should be in the low to mid 60s, not 70s. So it should be pretty tolerable if you take it slow.

THURSDAY

Another hot one, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms comes into play. Many of us in Vermont should make it to 90 or so. The dew point should get up into the low 70s, so it will feel miserable.  A cold front approaching from Canada should spark some afternoon and evening showers and storms. It's a little early to figure out whether any storms will be strong or severe, but the possibility is there. Stay tuned!

FRIDAY

The cold front continues to stagger through Vermont. Early guesses suggest the morning could be rainy, but we could salvage a decent afternoon if it comes through quickly enough. Especially north. We are't expected all that much rain from this, except in local torrential downpours. 

NEXT WEEKEND:

Potentially very nice after the cold front. It will stay warm with highs in the 80s, but with lower humidity. There's a bunch of wildfires burning in central and northern Canada which means we could see some smoke. 

I'll have a fuller report on a potentially smoky rest of the summer, hopefully later today. 

Overnight Rain Is Over, Now Onto The Showers, Thunderstorm Later Today

A patch of clearing skies over St. Albans, Vermont
at 5:45 a..m, but ou can just see shower clouds
over the tree line looking toward New York.
A burst of rain hit not long after this photo
was taken. If it clears up again later this 
morning, that would increase the chances 
of strong storms a little bit. 

 I'm up bright an early for a start-of-the day appointment, so let's get into our latest out of rain and storms. 

As expected, rain moved over Vermont last night. Through 5 a.m., it hadn't amounted to all that much in  northern Vermont. 

It appears most places up there had a quarter inch or less. Southern Vermont, as expected, did better, with many places receiving a half inch or more of rain.  

We are, of course,  not done with the showers and storms. There were a few scattered showers and downpours wandering around the region as of 5:30 a.m., but also some breaks in the clouds. 

Whether it stays more cloudier or sunnier it remains this morning will influence how wild, or not wild the weather will become this afternoon. The sunnier ir gets this morning, the more likely a few stars could become strong.

This isn't a perfect setup for severe storms. The alleged cold front coming in to spark the storms doesn't really have any cold air behind it. The lack of a temperature contrast might constrain storms a bit. But there is converging winds near the front, so that's why some thunderstorms might spark. 

The air also isn't all that humid, so there's a little less fuel for strong thunderstorms than if the air was really muggy. 

There is enough of a chance for strong storms that NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont under a level one out of five marginal risk for severe storms. That means we could have isolated instances of damaging winds. There's also a very slight risk of large hail, too. 

The best chances of strong storms for most of us would be a little earlier than is typical - roughly between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m.  The best chance of strong storms would be in the early afternoon. 

We also might have a couple scattered showers or non-severe rumbles of thunder lasting into the ever. 

Even though thunderstorms might have some brief downpours, I'm not really worried about flooding for this go-around.  

The next issue facing us is, well, summer. 

WEEKEND

Saturday and Sunday look like a typical summer weekend. It'll be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday and low to mid 80s Sunday, with an odd 87 or 88 in the very warmest Banana Belt valleys. Humidity will be noticeable but not extreme. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the mountain both days. Especially Saturday.  

Some of those might try to drift into the valleys, but they'll probably tend to fall apart as they do so. 

EARLY WEEK

Then we get into real heat. I don't know exactly how hot it will get, but hot enought. There's a good chance at least some of us will make it to 90 degrees. It will also be very humid, meaning the night will be stuffy. 

The very warm, or hot weather with the muggy air should last most if not all of next week

Another thing to consider: The heat will be courtesy of a big "heat dome" that will set up over the eastern United States. The center of this heat dome will a little to our west. That opens us up to what are know as "ridge runners."

Ridge runners are packets of severe thunderstorms that go up and over the northern edge of the heat domes. When they start moving southeastward along the front side of the heat dome, the storms can get very feisty, sometimes dangerous. 

We'll be in that spot next week. The first chance of a "ridge runner" would come later Tuesday or Tuesday night. We could have one or two  more later in the week.

There's absolutely no guarantee we'll be affected by a ridge runner. They might miss us or not develop at all. You can predict the conditions that could create them well in advance. But you can't really confirm one will form or hit you until the day of the event. 

And if we do, there's no guarantee we'll be hit by the severe parts of a ridge runner. But it's something to keep in the back of your mind if you don't like damaging storms. 

Showers, T-Storms, Few Severe Today In Vermont. Hot Times Ahead For Upcoming Week

Radar showed a batch of mostly light rain moving into 
the state this moving. That  should move out, followed by
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some could
be severe, especially south.  

 Editors Note: Posts might be irregular or short through at least Sunday as I'm traveling. I'll do my best!

OK, Now that my travel plans are out of the way: It's raining a little this morning in Vermont. Or at least parts of the state. 

Last week's weather has made things pretty parched, so we need it. It won't be a blockbuster rainfall for most of us, which is too bad. It won't make up for a dry week, a the upcoming week looks a bit arid, too. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY

The rain this morning is mostly a steady light rain moving in rapidly from New York State. It's zipping along, and should be pretty m much out of the state by early afternoon. Southern Vermont might only get a trace of rain out of this morning's little blip of rain. 

Then things get interesting. We could get some breaks of sun to roil the humid atmosphere a bit. Winds aloft will increase, and another disturbance ahead of a cold front will sweep in during the afternoon. 

The result is a risk of severe thunderstorms. They could happen anywhere in Vermont, but are most likely along and south of Route 4. A broad area from Indiana, Ohio, then through Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the southern half of New England is under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

That slight risk - a level 2 out of 5 alert level - includes southern Vermont.

Yellow area, including southern Vermont is under a 
level 2 out of 5 risk of severe storms today. Dark
green is level 1 out 5 risk. If there are severe
storms in Vermont today, the greatest danger
will be strong winds and lightning. 

That slight risk means there could be scattered instances of storm damage today. The risk is for strong gusty winds. There could be isolated instances of damaging hail, but that's less likely. 

 The rest of the state, along with northern New England and northern New York is under a marginal risk, alert level one out of 5. That means  a risk of isolated storm issues. 

It looks like the greatest risk of storms statewide is between 2 ad 8 p.m. today. You know the drill. 

If you have outdoor plans, keep an eye to the sky and have a way to receive severe storm warnings or other weather advisories. I'd also postpone that hike in the mountains to another day. 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY

The cold front will continue to approach as atmospheric ripples continue ahead of it. That means a continued  good chance of showers overnight tonight, with a few rumbles of thunder, too.

This state of affairs should continue Sunday as the cold front slips through. Most of the rain in the north will be in the morning and early afternoon. Southern Vermont has a better chance of  thunderstorms mixed in with rain and showers, but they don't look like they will be severe. 

It will be much cooler, but not cold, like last weekend. Highs should end up within a few degrees either side of 70.

Forecast total rainfall has increased a bit since yesterday. Because of the thunderstorms, rainfall will be super variable, with some communities not getting much at all, while two town over they have over an inch. 

But in general, now through Sunday, southern Vermont gets a half to a third of an inch of rain, while the northern half gets a half inch, give or take. 

All in all, a fairly unpleasant weather weekend. Sorry about that! But we need what rain we can get, so be thankful for that as your high school graduation picnics turn into downpour soaked dashes indoors. And please don't leave the cake out in the rain. 

HOT TIMES AHEAD

The upcoming week looks interesting, Not in terms of storms, but heat.

Monday will be nice enough, with sunshine low humidity and highs near 80s. Tuesday turns hot, with most of us in the 80s with some towns touching 90. At least the humidity on Tuesday will be low. 

Not so much for the rest of the week. Humidity will rise as the heat continues to build. 

Burlington had a chance Tuesday through Friday of seeing four consecutive days where temperatures get to at least 90 degrees. The National Weather Service is already putting us on alert that this could be a serious hot spell, with serious heat risk, especially for unhealthy people with little or no access to air conditioning. 

As far as rainfall, a weak disturbance embedded in the hot flow of air from the southwest could touch off some scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. But the storms don't look like they'll be particularly widespread. 

The heat and humidity has a good  chance of lasting beyond Friday.  

 

Flash Heat Wave Monday, Questions About Heat And Storms Today, Then Sharply Cooler Late Week

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still extends their
slight risk of severe thunderstorms into Vermont.
(Everything in yellow is a slight risk).

That was a wild weather ride on Monday! 

Northern Vermont in particular endured the day's weather whiplash. As I noted in yesterday morning's post, the day began stormy and cold with fitful downpours, local gusty winds and even a rumble or two of thunder. 

Burlington reached 90 degrees by late afternoon, after a rainy early morning low of 51 degrees. By afternoon, we were sweating in a brief May heat wave that is already over-performing. 

I saw somewhere on social media where somebody in Vermont said they ran their furnace in the morning and air conditioner in the afternoon.

I'd call it a flash heat wave. Like a sudden flash flood, only hot air, not water. 

The day featured a rare temperature stat: Burlington had its first 80 degree temperature of the season Sunday. And only a day later, the first 90 of the season hit.  The same thing happened in April, 2002, but I wonder if this week and 2002 were the only times something like that happened. 

There has always been the occasional May in Burlington in which the temperature hit 90. But probably at least in part due to climate change, 90 degree May days are getting more common. In the 109 years in Burlington ending in 2009, we had 14 Mays that reached at least 90 degrees.

But in the 16 years since 2010, there have already been eight such days in May.  

Elsewhere in Vermont, the high in Bennington Monday was 89 degrees. Montpelier reached 86 degrees after a morning low of 46.  A temperature change of 40 degrees in just one day is pretty wild. 

The heat isn't only a Vermont thing, of course. Philadelphia reached 96 degrees Monday, a record for the date. It was also the second hottest May temperature on record.  In New York City, a high of 95 is expected today, followed by an incredibly stuffy overnight low tonight of 77. It should hit 90 degrees in the Big Apple again tomorrow. 

Heat advisories are in effect for much of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Hartford, Connecticut had its second day in a row of 90 degree temperatures Monday. Today's forecast high there is a whopping 96 degrees. The forecast high in Springfield today is 97.

VERMONT FORECAST

Back here in Vermont, the degree of heat today will depend on the level of cloud cover.  Severe thunderstorms are also possible, but there might be factors that allow us to luck out and avoid the worst of the storms. Maybe. 

We're certainly off to a very warm, muggy start. It looks like the low temperature this morning in Burlington was 71 degrees, so if you didn't sleep well in the Champlain Valley, that's why. If that low temperature holds through midnight, it'll break the record for warmest low temperature for the date. (The current record holder is 67 degrees way back in 1903.  

As the day goes on the valleys of southern Vermont have the best chance of reaching 90 degrees today, as they'll have the most sun.  The National Weather Service forecast for Springfield, for instance is 92 degrees.

I think clouds might prevent another 90 degree day in Burlington today, we'll see about that. There was already a batch of clouds and light showers in central and western New York early this morning. Those clouds might not clear out fast enough to allow another 90 degree day. Though we're starting out pretty warm, so it's still possible. 

The next question is severe thunderstorms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 alert on a scale of 5 - for the northwest half of Vermont and a level one marginal risk for the southeast. 

The amount of instability in the atmosphere over us isn't huge over us today, which is a limiting factor for storms. But there is a subtle disturbance in the atmosphere due by early afternoon. That, combined with rising air near mountains could trigger some storms.

Also, cool air coming off of Lake Champlain sometimes creates these teeny tiny miniature cold fronts which are boundaries between the cool lake air and the warmer inland air. Those could be triggering spots for storms. After that, cool winds blasting out of thunderstorms could set up additionally teeny tiny little cold fronts elsewhere, which would trigger more storms. 

Bottom line: Some of us will see showers or storms, some of us will stay dry.  A small number of us could experience strong, even damaging winds from storms. This won't be a widespread severe storm event. 

We don't know who, if anybody will get those rambunctious storms. Pay attention to the skies if you're outdoors, and have a way to receive severe storm warnings, just in case. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

After another stuffy night coming up, Wednesday will bring another big change. A cold front will stumble through, in the morning north, afternoon south and east. The timing of it means the north will probably just see some scattered showers in the morning, with clearing skies and highs in the 70s during the afternoon. 

Southeast Vermont could see some thunderstorms but severe ones seem unlikely, at least for now. Highs in the south look like they want to get up into the 80s

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More big changes in a roller coaster of a weather week. We'll wake up to sharply colder temperatures Thursday morning with lows in the 38 to 45 degrees. Under at least partly sunny if not clear skies, temperatures should only get into the mid and upper 50s north,  and some 60s south. 

Since it will be so cool, there might be some frost Thursday night and early Friday in areas of Vermont away from the Champlain Valley.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

A toss up on how the holiday weekend will turn out. The American weather model keeps showers at bay Saturday and Sunday, leaving us with partly sunny skies and cool highs in the 60s.  The European model brings showers into our area Saturday and Sunday. Both models give us some showers on Monday, Memorial Day. 

Climate Change Might Make You Fat (With Asterisks)

New research indicates we consume more sugary 
drinks and food when it gets hotter. Essentially,
climate change could make us fat. 

A recent Washington Post article in effect said that climate change could make you fat.

They didn't really come out and say it like that, but the reporters cited research that says higher temperatures inspire more purchases of sugary drinks and ice cream. 

Since climate change is making a given day more likely to really heat up, chances are we'll increasingly gorge ourselves on Coca-Cola and Ben & Jerry's. 

Researchers studied 16 years of U.S, dietary habits between 2004 and 2019 found that as temperatures rise, consumption of sugary drinks and frozen desserts go up in tandem. 

Reports WaPo:

"Based on their understanding of the relationship between temperature and sugar, the researchers projected that under one of the worst-case scenarios for climate change, Americans could be expected to eat an extra three grams of sugar or so per day by 2095. The effort to stay hydrated and cool down could exacerbate the nation's risk of disease associated with excessive sugar consumption, the scientists said."

Except when it gets really hot. People eat and drink more sugary treats as the temperature climbs from the 50s all the way to the mid and upper 80s. 

More specifically, for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit increase in temperate, added sugar consumption in U.S. households goes up by 0.7 per person per day. The escalation accelerates between temperatures of 68 and 86 degrees, reports CNN. 

After that, the effect levels off. Once it gets into the 90s, it gets too hot to eat. We lose our appetites. Even if somebody waves an ice cream cone in front of us. 

As with almost everything else in America, there's a class and economic status slant to this story. WaPo again:

"The effect appeared to be the most pronounced among Americans with low income and educational levels, as well as among those in milder regions unacclimated to the heat. While the amount of extra sugar consumed is small - less than a gram per degree - the cumulative effect of all that added sugar due to rising temperatures may end up increasing the overall risk of obesity, diabetes, heart disease and cancer."

Water should be the go-to in hot weather. But in many low income neighborhoods, it's hard to find tap water free of lead or dangerous chemicals. 

The researcher focused their work on the United States. Next up: Studying weather the same thing happens in Asia.  

Potentially Dangerous Heat Wave Lurks Next Week In East, Including Here In Vermont

High chances of hot weather next week and 
beyond for most of central and eastern 
United States, including here in Vermont. 

The weather patterns shaping up for next week continue to look pretty ominous in terms of heat, so you'd better enjoy the relatively cool conditions this week and the weekend. Could last a long time.

All signs continue to point toward what could well become a long lasting, potentially dangerous heat wave in Vermont, the rest of the East and parts of southeast Canada. 

A big northward bulge in the jet stream will mean the famous Bermuda High will seize control of the eastern United States. That will pump oppressive humidity and high temperatures from the Gulf of Mexico all the way to the eastern Great Lakes and New England.  

Forecasts vary as to how long the heat will last and how intense it will get. But at least some models point toward near record high temperatures next week, and possibly beyond for parts of the Northeast. 

The expected heat next week looks like it will cover a remarkably broad area. A NOAA hazards outlook map shows a risk of dangerous heat and much above normal temperatures stretching from places like Missouri and Illinois all the way to New England. Much of the Rocky Mountains are also in the cross hairs for hot weather. 

The weather pattern featuring this eastern heat looks like it could last quite awhile.  Unless forecasts change - which could well happen - the pattern suggests weak cold fronts might bring occasional brief relief to northern areas, but in general the hot weather in the East could last to near the end of the month. 

VERMONT FORECAST

One last refreshing push of cool, dry, sunny breezes should come through Saturday into Sunday. Then the trouble begins. 

If all goes according to what seems to be shaping up, you'll notice it turning noticeably warmer and more humid by Monday. 

By Tuesday, the heat and humidity will be in full force.  Like in other parts of the Northeast, this could last awhile. 

I don't know whether every day from Tuesday onward next week will get into the 90s, but any day that doesn't get that warm will be close.  It's unclear how hot it will get when the heat wave peaks, but like other places in the Northeast, some daily record highs could be threatened in Vermont. 

Nights will be stifling as well.

Note that the longer a heat wave lasts, the bigger the toll it has on people, especially the elderly and people who aren't in great health to begin with.   If you know people like that who live in houses without air conditioning, now is a good time to start plotting occasional "kidnappings" in which you bring them to air conditioned restaurants, shops or movies for relief. 

 If you work strenuously outdoors, start planning on early starts and quitting by afternoon when it gets really hot, if at all possible. 

Another thing we'll have to look out for is the occasional risk of severe thunderstorms during this hot, humid spell.

When it's that torrid, with that much humidity, it doesn't take much for powerful thunderstorms to develop. That's why Florida is so stormy in the summer. The heat and humidity are just powder kegs for this sort of thing. 

We'll be near the northern edge of the heat dome that is forecast to build. The periphery of a heat dome is known as the "ring of fire" because repeated rounds of thunderstorms repeatedly move along the edge of the hot air mass.

If even a weak disturbance brushes by us, and the timing of it is late afternoon or evening, we could get some powerhouse storms. It's impossible this far in advance to know if, or when any of these storms might hit. It's just another thing to consider as this heat builds and lasts. 

At least we're far enough north so that those little weak cold fronts I talked about would potentially affect us. But overall, those long range forecasts call for warmer than normal weather through at least the 25th of this month or so.  Again, could change, but that's the way it looks now. 

SUMMER OFF TO BAD START

Forecasts that came out all spring suggested the United States was in for a hot summer. The beginning of summer, at least, has proven the forecasts right, though we don't know what July and August will bring. 

Already, record heat has hit the Southwest this month. Las Vegas had its hottest start to June on record. Record highs were set last week from Sacramento, California, to Amarillo, Texas. Parts of Texas and Florida also had record heat through most of May. 

With climate change, heat waves have in general been getting worse, here and in most of the rest of the world. Record heat waves have scorched vast areas of Africa, Asia and South America already this year.

Back here in Vermont, I've noticed heat has been rewriting the record books, especially in the early parts of recent summers. Before 2017, it had never gotten to 95 degrees or warmer earlier than on June 15. Since 2017, it has gotten to 95 or hotter five times before that date. 

This upcoming heat wave will of course hit after June 15.  But that rewriting process in the weather record books here in Vermont might just continue. 

 

The Stats Are In: Summer 2023 Was Brutal For Much Of The United States

Much of the nation had a warmer than normal to '
hot summer this year, but the Ohio Valley was on
the cool side. The higher the number, the higher
the ranking for the state for heat compared to
other summers. The 129 in Louisiana means
they had their hottest summer in all
of the past 129 years. 

Heat waves were in the news all summer, including August. The United States numbers are in, revealing that overall the nation had its ninth hottest August on record. This is out of the past 129 years. 

The data comes from NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. That issue monthly reports on national and global climate data. 

The global report is just coming out today, Friday, September 13. Spoiler:  It'll tell us it's the world's hottest August on record. I'll have a much more detailed report on global August temperatures soon.

If that scenario plays out, it won't be weird, really. The United States comprises just 1.867 percent of the world's surface.  

Even in record hot months or years, a minority of areas are cooler.   So the U.S. can have a warm, but not record hot period while the rest of the world does.  

Ground zero for United States heat was Louisiana.  August was the warmest on record for Louisiana and Florida by a whopping 1.5 degrees. (Usually, if you break a monthly heat record, it's by a couple tenths of a degree. Mississippi was a strong runner up, also breaking is August record by half a degree.

Louisiana also recorded its driest August on record and its hottest summer on record. Yuck!

Vermont's August wasn't spectacularly warm or cold in either direction. Out of the past 129 years, Vermont's August was the 56th warmest. So I guess we escaped a lot of the heat that other places had. Of course we sort of paid for it with that torrid week earlier this month. 

Meteorological summer goes from June 1 through August 31, so now the data for the entire summer season is in. Over all, the United States had its 15th warmest summer out of past 129 years. Louisiana (surprise!) had its hottest summer on record.

Baton Rouge, Louisiana is the poster child of how awful the summer of 2023 was. Of course it was the hottest summer on record, with a mean temperature between June 1 and August 31 of 87.5 degrees.

Almost always, when a new seasonal record is set like that, it beats the old mark by only a couple tenths of a degree or so.  But Baton Rouge beat the hottest summer record by an incredible 2.9 degrees. Baton Rouge also set the record for the hottest month in the city's history with a mean temperature of 87.8 degrees. But that record was broken in August, with an average temperature of 90.3.

Baton Rouge also had the most days reaching at least 100 degrees (30 of 'em); most night staying at or above 80 degrees (27 total) and most consecutive days at or above 100 degrees (10 days, which happened twice this summer) 

Consider the Baton Rouge summer of '23 the next time you complain it's 90 degrees in humid here in Vermont. 

Elsewhere, Texas, Florida and New Mexico had one of their top two or three hottest summers. Mississippi, Washington and Oregon had one of their top 10 warmest summers in 2023.

At least some people got a break, though. Areas in and around the Ohio River Valley had a rather cool summer overall. West Virginia had its 32nd coolest summer out of the past 129 years. Kentucky had its 35th coolest summer. 

Vermont statistics for the summer were weird.  The summer of 2023 in Vermont was the 22nd warmest overall. But the average high temperature for the summer was the 50th coolest on record. Yet, more bizarrely, the average low temperature was the second warmest out of the 129 years they've been keeping track.  

Large parts of the nation had a wetter than normal 
summer (states in blue) The darkest blue in Wyoming,
Vermont and New Hampshire mean those states had
their wettest summer on record. States in brown
had an unusually dry summer

These odd stats are a reflection of what an oddly cloudy, humid summer we had. 

Cloudy, humid afternoons don't get very warm due to the lack of sun. Cloudy, humid nights tend to be warm, because the clouds hold in the heat. And humid air tends to prevent temperatures from dropping much, too. 

Speaking of clouds and humidity, Vermont as a whole had its wettest summer on record. Two other states, New Hampshire and Wyoming of all places also had their wettest summer. 

The rain wasn't that evenly distributed in Vermont. Looking at specific towns,  Montpelier certainly had its wettest summer, but Burlington didn't even make it into the top ten wettest. 

On top of all these hot summer statistics, it turns out the whole year so far has been a hot one in the United States. By my count hrough August, 28 states, including Vermont, are so far having one of their top 10 hottest years on record. (So far, Vermont's is third hottest). 

September so far has come in hot for Vermont, so we might move up in that hottest year ranking, depending upon how the rest of the year goes. 

 

Summer Of '22 Heat Over-performs Again In Vermont

A warm summer sky Friday evening in St. Albans,
Vermont. It's another toasty weekend. 

 4 PM SATURDAY UPDATE:

Temperatures indeed got to where they were expected this afternoon, generally between 85 and 91, with slightly cooler readings in high elevations.

The temperature did in fact reach 90 degrees in Burlington this afternoon. That's the 12th time it reached 90 this year.

At least some dry air mixed down from aloft, so dew points are in the 50s.  Even as low as 49 at one point in Burlington. 

Dew point temperatures are a good measure of how comfortable or uncomfortable the humidity is.  Dew points in the 50s are pretty comfortable in general. But when it's this hot, you'll still need to take it easy and drink plenty of fluids if outdoors in this weather.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

The temperature in Vermont on Friday was supposed to reach the low 80s in the warmer valleys, but once again, the heat over-performed. 

The high temperature in Burlington Friday was 88 degrees. That sets us up for a decent chance of another day this summer that reaches 90 degrees.

Part of the reason for this bit of extra heat is the fact that it's been on the dry side.  If conditions were wetter, a lot of the sun's energy would go into evaporation.  We'd end up being a little more humid, but temperatures would be a little lower, too.

With less water to evaporate, the sun can concentrate on heating the air instead.  So, in the warmer valleys, and especially in the middle of urban heat islands like Burlington, we have a very strong chance of getting past 90 degrees today. 

The air over us today is not all that humid to begin with.  Drier air heats up faster than humid air.  This drier air cools off more quickly at night than when it's sultry. Which is why we started today comfortably in the 50s to around 60, but will get up to 85 to 92 this afternoon.

All the bricks and concrete and asphalt in even smaller downtowns usually make things hotter than in the countryside. That's because they absorb the sun's heat and then radiate it back out 

In forested and wilder areas, all those trees release oxygen and water into the atmosphere, so it's cooler in these areas.  

It'll tend to become cloudier and more humid on Sunday, especially west, so the 90 degree weather on Sunday might be limited to low elevations of eastern Vermont, especially south of White River Junction. But with the higher humidity, it will feel more uncomfortable than today. 

We do have the prospect of some rain Monday and especially Tuesday, but I'm still not overly jazzed by how much we'll get. We'll take anything, of course. At least we have a strong shot at some rain.  

Hot Summer Weekend In Full Swing; Heat Won't Last Long

Very similar photo to yesterday's post, except now we have
the addition of the kiddie pool to cool off in if I 
get overheated digging in the dirt. 

I suspected today would bring the first 90 degree temperature of the summer to Burlington, Vermont, but I was wrong! 

The warmth on Saturday over-performed, and it did get up to 90 degrees in the Queen City. We have another go at it today, with even hotter weather still in the forecast. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is running with an expected high of 93 degrees in Burlington this afternoon.  Most valley locations in Vermont will be at or close to 90 degrees this afternoon, too.

The NWS usually pulls the trigger and launches a heat advisory if the heat index is expected to get to 95 degrees or above for at least a few hours in the afternoon.  But there's no heat advisory today. The humidity is only moderately high. Plus, some drier air is forecast to mix down from aloft during the hottest part of the day. 

That'll keep us from feeling that hot. But it will be pretty nasty out there for vigorous exercise. Take it easy and take a lot of breaks. 

If I do anything outside in my gardens in St. Albans, Vermont today, I'm prepared. A few years ago, we bought a cheap kiddie pool for the dogs to splash around in if they got too hot. The pups are not interested. So I settle into the kiddie pool when it gets too hot to keep digging around in the dirt.  You gotta find a use for everything, right?

I'm also very prone to frequent "clumsy accidents" with the garden hose during hot weather, so I'm sure I'll have a few of those today.  I would encourage everyone to suffer those "clumsy accidents" today. Perhaps the kids will "mis-aim" the hose when you're on your veranda with your gin and tonic. Don't say you read that here, kiddos! 

Today is also a great beach day, with a few caveats.  The sun is at its strongest of the season, so really smear that sun screen on.  The water temperatures in the lakes is still a bit nippy, so watch out for that. And on the broad Lake Champlain, gusty south winds will cause some choppy water and hazards for canoes, kayaks and things like that, so be careful.

That cold front is still forecast to come through overnight. Most of us will see some showers and thunderstorms on this upcoming muggy night. Forecasters are not expecting anything severe, other than some brief torrential downpours in spots.

You'll notice how much cooler and less humid it will be by Monday afternoon.  It should be a nice week overall. Tuesday will be a little cool for this time of year - in the 70s. Very nice, with low humidity. Can't complain about that! 

The week will gradually turn warmer and somewhat more humid, but again, nothing all that extreme. The hottest day looks like it might be Friday. If there's enough sun, we'll get back up into the 85-90 degree range. But another cold front will be on our doorstep to cool us off again. 

We're still looking at no long lasting heat waves at least into the first ten days of July.

Likely Worst Heat Wave Of Year In Vermont Even If Temperatures Aren't Highest

It's so hot this week I figure I'd treat you to a photo of a
heavy snowstorm in Burlington, Vermont 
from a few winters ago. 

 The hottest it's gotten so far this summer in Burlington, Vermont was a record 96 degrees way back on June 7.  

For those who don't like hot weather, the good news: It almost surely won't get that hot during this week's heat wave.  Now the bad news: This weeks 90 degree weather will feel probably feel hotter than that 96 degree day back in June. 

Back during the record heat in early June, the dew point, the best measure to figure out how humid it is out there, was only in the upper 50s to low 60s.  That's not very humid at all, really. 

A dew point like that, say on a day when the actual temperature is something like 80s degrees, makes for a very comfortable summer day.  Yes, it was uncomfortably hot in early June, but that was solely a function of high temperatures.

This week is different. It's wicked humid out there.  And it will stay that way through Friday, even as temperatures rise above the mid and upper 80s we've seen since Friday.

That dew point is now into the mid 60s, which is pretty humid. There's signs those dew point readings could go to the low 70s - maybe today, but more likely tomorrow and Thursday.   That'll drive the heat index - what the air actually feels like - to the mid 90s in parts of Vermont and surrounding areas today, and maybe near 100 degrees Wednesday and Thursday.

Meanwhile, actual temperatures will top out around 90 degrees for most of us, low 90s in the hot spots around Vermont.  That's really up there, but not as hot as it can get, and as mentioned, "cooler" than that early June spell of heat.

A heat advisory is up today for much of the Northeast, including the Champlain Valley and southwest and southeast corners of Vermont. Temperatures will feel like they're in the mid 90s even as actual temperatures barely crack 90 degrees.

There's no heat alerts for tomorrow - yet.  The National Weather Service in South Burlington will get us through today, they hoist new heat advisories or warnings Wednesday morning. The heat index tomorrow afternoon and evening should get to 100 degrees in spot. 

Thursday's looking just as bad, with a potential added twist. When it's this hot and humid, all you need is a trigger to set off some big thunderstorms, as I mentioned yesterday. 

There will be isolated thunderstorms today, and some overnight tonight as a disturbance skirts the Canadian border. Those might provide a few instances of torrential downpours. 

Wednesday looks almost storm free for most of the day.

A slightly stronger disturbance seems like it wants to approach us Thursday afternoon amid all this heat and humidity. That combination could well turn into a trigger for strong gusty thunderstorms.  It's so humid out there, that the rain will really come down incredibly hard with some of these, so expect a few instances of street flooding, driveway or back road washouts, that sort of thing. 

That's a couple days away, so it may or may not develop. Stay tuned. 

In any event, during this "worst of summer" heat wave, try to stay in the air conditioning. If you have to work outdoors or do strenuous activities outside, like I do today and tomorrow, take it easy. Like I will.

Drink plenty of water.  Take quite a few breaks. Get your butt into a cool place during rests to avoid heat exhaustion or gawd forbid heat stroke. Do you have elderly relatives or friends living in a house without air conditioning? Check on them, or better yet, grab 'em and take them out to someplace cool.  Even if it's for a random sight seeing drive in an air conditioned car. 

 

Hot Times In Vermont; Hot Times Globally

This headline pretty well sums up the latest IPCC

climate change report 

The big headlines you'll see today, the long awaited United Nations report/update on the state of climate change was dropped overnight, and as widely expected the news is lousy. 

The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is a big 3,000 page monster, so I don't think many people have read it in detail yet. 

But reporters have at least gotten through the executive summary, or "Summary For Policy Makers" or whatever, and the headlines are alarming. 

 The UN is calling new IPCC report "code red for humanity."  and that humans are "unequivocally" warming the planet. No hedging there! 

This is an update of the 2013 IPCC report and this one makes more precise, and warmer forecasts regarding the climate than the old document, as USA Today reports. 

As USA TODAY continues:

"According to the report, many of the changes seen in the world's climate are unprecedented in thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years, and some of the changes set in motion - such as continued sea level rise, - are irreversible over hundreds of thousands of years."

There will be a lot more new and documents coming out of this report leading up to a global climate conference later this year in Geneva, but this teaser from the IPCC is grim. 

The new report, like so many scientists have been saying, says we face a future with even more extreme droughts, flash floods, heat waves, hurricanes and "weather whiplash" in which we go from one extreme to another in a short period of time. 

As the BBC reports, Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization said, 'By using sports terms, one could say the atmosphere has been exposed to doping, which  means we have begun observing extremes more often than before."

The report, and the above statement, comes as the world has seen a slew of extreme weather and climate disasters this summer. As the report came out overnight, devastating, deadly, extreme wildfires were roaring through parts of the United States, Canada, Siberia, Greece, Turkey, Italy and other nations. 

The Northern Hemisphere is currently experiencing its hottest summer on record. Yet another intense heat wave is now starting to build in the United States Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada, where all-time record heat struck in June. 

IMMEDIATE HEAT IN VERMONT

The weather here seems to be keeping in line with the IPCC report, as we gear up for a very hot, humid week and the risk of more potentially locally damaging storms. 

The big story this week will be the heat, with some areas of Vermont likely to have their first official heat wave since June

It turned very warm and humid during the weekend and the heat is turning up starting today. A warm front of sorts was producing some showers and storms near the Canadian border early this morning and this warm front is introducing us to the real heat.

It'll be near 90 every day this week through at least Thursday, maybe Friday.  The high humidity will keep temperatures up at night, so we won't be getting much in the way of relief when we're trying to sleep. 

Few, if any record highs will be broken in this heat wave locally, but it will feel awfully stuffy all week.

The  heat and humidity means the atmosphere is ripe for strong thunderstorms with torrential downpours. However, for the next couple of days anyway, don't expect much in the way of that kind of weather, as there will be few of any triggers to get the storms going.

Yesterday, I had some fears that stalled mountain thunderstorms could cause some local flash floods, but I don't have reports of anything super damaging. Just local spots with driveway washouts, edges of roads a little overrun by water, that type of thing. Those stationary storms did, in the end, get a little push and moved slowly north before dying, so tings weren't so bad.

Any storms that get going today, tomorrow and probably Wednesday afternoon and evening have the potential to be briefly strong, with torrential rains and gusty winds.  But the storms will be very few and far between.

The storms will also probably be what we call "pulse" storms.  They'll pop up really, really fast, give a small area a good dousing, then quickly fall apart again. Most of these will get going over the mountains. 

More organized and widespread storms look like they will appear Thursday and Friday, and there's a chance some could be severe.  We'll get a better handle on whether that happens by around midweek.

Those Thursday and Friday storms will be ahead of a cold front that is expected to give us blessedly much drier and cooler weather next weekend.

 

Vermont Heat Wanes A Bit, But Humidity Soars

Seems like this never used to happen: Some sun and heat
scorch damage to hosta leaves in my northern Vermont
gardens, despite liberal watering. This is the fourth summer
in a row this has happened and second in a row it's
happened so early in the season. 

OK, it's not nearly as hot out there today as it was yesterday here in Vermont, but it doesn't feel any better.  

At least yet.  

Quite a few clouds are cluttering the sky, keeping yesterday's scorching sunshine at bay. But the humidity has come up dramatically.  

The dew point is around 70 today, which is the highest it's been so far this summer and a level that makes everybody feel miserable. 

I'll get into what's in store for us in a bit, but first we really have to marvel at yesterday's heat. Burlington, Vermont got up to 96 degrees, a record for the date and the hottest for so early in the season. 

Had this hot spell hit in early July instead of early June, we would have had a rare day of 100 degree weather. (Temperatures of 100 degrees have happened only four times in Burlington since the late 1880s).

Across the pond, Plattsburgh got up to 95 degrees, enough to beat the old record for the date of 94 degrees. Montpelier, Vermont mustered a relatively "frigid" high of 89 degrees Monday, enough to tie the record high for the date there. 

The low this morning in Burlington was a stuffy 75 degrees.

Those hard core hot, humid nights make the heat all the more dangerous because it doesn't give us the opportunity to recover from a hot day. Lots of Vermont homes still don't have air conditioning. 

It used to be we never needed air conditioning, since extreme hot spells were so far and few between.  We finally broke down and bought an air conditioner ahead of an extreme hot spell in 2018 for our bedroom in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Sure glad we did!  We've had extreme heat now every summer since. I think it will be the cool summers that will be few and far between going forward. 

The early season heat is confusing to us, animals and nature.  Our dogs know something as wrong, looking at us with pleading eyes to stop the heat, and happily joining us in our cool basement. Still, the basement move is not the normal routine, so the dogs are unsettled.

Out in the garden, for the fourth year in a row, my hosta leaves are sun scorched and damaged, and for the second year in a row, this happened at the start of the season, well before the heat normally hits.  I thought I had a cool climate garden, being in northern Vermont. Maybe I should have had a cactus garden instead. 

On the bright side, we do have some substantial relief coming to us eventually. 

The clouds will more or less hang on this afternoon across Vermont, keeping most of us from reaching 90 degrees again. A few places could reach that magical figure if they have a long enough break of sun. That to me is most likely in the northern Champlain Valley near the Canadian border and in the Connecticut River Valley south of White River Junction.

A shower or thunderstorm could pop up at any time this afternoon, mostly along and south of Route 2. That's be good for everybody who's parched and needs rain.  But many of us, especially in the north, won't get any real good rains, so that's bad.

The scattered here and there showers and storms will be slow moving today, and the humid air means we could get some torrential downpours in a few scattered spots today.  Despite the dry conditions, this could lead to minor washouts on gravel driveways and roads and some ponding of water in just a few spots. So watch out for that 

Other than the downpours and the lightning with any storms, there won't be any severe weather. 

That cold front is still scheduled to come through tomorrow, with not much fanfare. It'll still be warmish north, hot south before the cool air can work i.

You'll notice a change in the air developing as the day wears on, with it getting less and less humid. Starting Wednesday night and Thursday, we're still getting an extended stretch of comfortable weather, lasting well into next week. 

No more 90s for awhile around here.  

Today's Severe Storm Outlook. Also, Brief Heat Builds, But Nothing Like Plains!

A severe thunderstorm that came in from Quebec looms 
over St. Albans Bay, Vermont in July, 2013. There
could be similar scenes and threats in northern New
England, including northern Vermont today.

We are still watching the risk of severe thunderstorms later today over northern Vermont and surrounding areas.  Just to keep you on your toes. 

As usual, not everybody will get clobbered by a nasty storm, but some of us will.   It seems almost certain a few places could have damaging wind gusts from afternoon and evening storms.   

It'll be hit and miss. One town will find themselves cleaning up a bunch of fallen trees and branches, while the next town over will be wondering what all the fuss is about. 

Since it's impossible as of this writing early Saturday morning to tell which towns will be under the gun, just have a way of receiving any potential severe thunderstorms warnings and take shelter when and if you do hear one of these warnings. 

All that said, we can certainly broad brush this for you to give you some idea what's probably in store. 

The afternoon timing of a weak cold front in Quebec and a batch of somewhat stronger winds aloft creates the risk of severe storms.   Those all hit today during peak heating for the day, which helps add instability to the atmosphere. 

It will be warm and moderately humid this afternoon to help fuel the storms, and a cooler pocket of air aloft over southern Quebec will help create some of the lift necessary for strong storms. 

The areas where this setup is most likely to create some severe storms is in Quebec south and east of a Montreal to Quebec City line, extreme northeastern New York, Vermont from Route 2 north,  New Hampshire roughly north of a line from Littleton to Conway, and central and western Maine. 

Strong to severe storms could start to fire up as soon as noon, but are most likely between about mid afternoon to a little after sunset (possibly lasting longer than that in Maine).  Given the risk of storms, this is not the day to go hiking in northern New England or to take your boat out on the lakes in the region. 

Even if any particular storm isn't officially severe, all that lightning zapping around, the gusty winds, the possible hail and locally torrential rains make it a bad idea to be caught outdoors without shelter. 

As far as what kind of severe weather to expect, as usual, the biggest risk is for strong, damaging straight line winds. 

Chances are thunderstorms would form into short lines shaped like backwards "Cs" which would enhance those winds.  

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is maintaining a risk of
severe thunderstorms over northern New England today.

The second biggest threat is locally big hail.

There's a chance that some thunderstorms might be discrete, meaning not attached to a line of several other storms. 

Those discrete storms have the potential to develop into supercells. That means that in the areas most likely to have severe storms today, there's a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado or two, so that's not good. 

Things will die down overnight.  On Sunday, there might be a widely scattered storm here or there, but they won't be severe. But that's when the heat comes in. At least it will be relatively brief

HOT SPELL

The hotter air is starting make itself felt.  You'll notice it a bit today ahead of the storms in the north, as highs get into the 80s. 

The thermostat goes up a little more Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with a few spot 90 degree highs. 

Monday will be the blast furnace day, with temperatures expected in the low to mid 90s for most Vermont valleys. Record highs could fall. The record high in Burlington Monday is 94 degrees, so it will be close. 

We'll start to lose the heat a bit on Tuesday, but it'll still be toasty, especially in southern Vermont.  Then a refreshing cold front comes in from Quebec - probably not accompanied by severe storms. By the end of the week, it'll actually be a bit cool for the season.  Some places won't even make it to 70 degrees Thursday and Friday afternoon.

The heat by then will slosh back to the northern Plains and western Great Lakes, which already have suffered from some intense early season heat. 

Cities that you've heard of having extreme cold are having extreme heat instead. Bismarck, North Dakota hit 106 degrees, certainly the hottest for so early in the season for them, and breaking the old record high for the date by a full 11 degrees. Minot, North Dakota managed 105 degrees.

Emerson, Manitoba, Canada got to 104 degrees.  That's the hottest temperature in that Canadian province for any date in over 30 years. 

International Falls, Minnesota, known as the nation's ice box, must have something wrong with their chiller. It got up to 98 degrees there Friday, the hottest for so early in the season and the toastiest it's gotten there for any date in 26 years.

Unlike here in New England, the heat in the northern Plains will probably continue to drag on through mid-month.