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| High chances of hot weather next week and beyond for most of central and eastern United States, including here in Vermont. |
All signs continue to point toward what could well become a long lasting, potentially dangerous heat wave in Vermont, the rest of the East and parts of southeast Canada.
A big northward bulge in the jet stream will mean the famous Bermuda High will seize control of the eastern United States. That will pump oppressive humidity and high temperatures from the Gulf of Mexico all the way to the eastern Great Lakes and New England.
Forecasts vary as to how long the heat will last and how intense it will get. But at least some models point toward near record high temperatures next week, and possibly beyond for parts of the Northeast.
The expected heat next week looks like it will cover a remarkably broad area. A NOAA hazards outlook map shows a risk of dangerous heat and much above normal temperatures stretching from places like Missouri and Illinois all the way to New England. Much of the Rocky Mountains are also in the cross hairs for hot weather.
The weather pattern featuring this eastern heat looks like it could last quite awhile. Unless forecasts change - which could well happen - the pattern suggests weak cold fronts might bring occasional brief relief to northern areas, but in general the hot weather in the East could last to near the end of the month.
VERMONT FORECAST
One last refreshing push of cool, dry, sunny breezes should come through Saturday into Sunday. Then the trouble begins.
If all goes according to what seems to be shaping up, you'll notice it turning noticeably warmer and more humid by Monday.
By Tuesday, the heat and humidity will be in full force. Like in other parts of the Northeast, this could last awhile.
I don't know whether every day from Tuesday onward next week will get into the 90s, but any day that doesn't get that warm will be close. It's unclear how hot it will get when the heat wave peaks, but like other places in the Northeast, some daily record highs could be threatened in Vermont.
Nights will be stifling as well.
Note that the longer a heat wave lasts, the bigger the toll it has on people, especially the elderly and people who aren't in great health to begin with. If you know people like that who live in houses without air conditioning, now is a good time to start plotting occasional "kidnappings" in which you bring them to air conditioned restaurants, shops or movies for relief.
If you work strenuously outdoors, start planning on early starts and quitting by afternoon when it gets really hot, if at all possible.
Another thing we'll have to look out for is the occasional risk of severe thunderstorms during this hot, humid spell.
When it's that torrid, with that much humidity, it doesn't take much for powerful thunderstorms to develop. That's why Florida is so stormy in the summer. The heat and humidity are just powder kegs for this sort of thing.
We'll be near the northern edge of the heat dome that is forecast to build. The periphery of a heat dome is known as the "ring of fire" because repeated rounds of thunderstorms repeatedly move along the edge of the hot air mass.
If even a weak disturbance brushes by us, and the timing of it is late afternoon or evening, we could get some powerhouse storms. It's impossible this far in advance to know if, or when any of these storms might hit. It's just another thing to consider as this heat builds and lasts.
At least we're far enough north so that those little weak cold fronts I talked about would potentially affect us. But overall, those long range forecasts call for warmer than normal weather through at least the 25th of this month or so. Again, could change, but that's the way it looks now.
SUMMER OFF TO BAD START
Forecasts that came out all spring suggested the United States was in for a hot summer. The beginning of summer, at least, has proven the forecasts right, though we don't know what July and August will bring.
Already, record heat has hit the Southwest this month. Las Vegas had its hottest start to June on record. Record highs were set last week from Sacramento, California, to Amarillo, Texas. Parts of Texas and Florida also had record heat through most of May.
With climate change, heat waves have in general been getting worse, here and in most of the rest of the world. Record heat waves have scorched vast areas of Africa, Asia and South America already this year.
Back here in Vermont, I've noticed heat has been rewriting the record books, especially in the early parts of recent summers. Before 2017, it had never gotten to 95 degrees or warmer earlier than on June 15. Since 2017, it has gotten to 95 or hotter five times before that date.
This upcoming heat wave will of course hit after June 15. But that rewriting process in the weather record books here in Vermont might just continue.
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