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| For the duration of this heat wave, I will be posting winter pics to cool you off when I write about this heat wave. First in the series: A photo of Mount Mansfield in January, 2021. |
A warm front was moving into the state early this morning. Winds have turned decidedly to the south, and dew points - a measure of how humid and oppressive it feels out there - were just starting to rise as of dawn this morning.
Those dew points rose from the arid 40s to comfortable 50s by 6 a.m. and should be in the very humid mid and upper 60s by mid to late afternoon.
A few light showers will be around, especially this morning. Clouds and such will hold temperatures this afternoon in the 80s as the hottest air will still be lurking just to our west.
You'll hear various predictions for high temperature bandied about, but just know it will be dangerously hot Tuesday through Thursday. I've seen a few models bring the hottest spots in Vermont to 100 degrees, but I still don't think it will quite get there.
But who cares? It'll be plenty hot enough.
The Champlain Valley should make it into the mid-90s during the three days. The lower Connecticut Valley could see upper 90s. Most of the rest of the Green Mountain State will endure temperatures in the 90-95 degree range.
Humidity will also be about as high as it can get in a Vermont summer.
To nobody's surprise, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has issued a heat advisory for those three days.
The heat index - what it feels like if you factor in both temperature and humidity - will feel as hot as 105 degrees all three days.
You're really going to want to take it easy. You might read my post on why heat waves are deadly - the "neutron bomb" of weather disasters for more details.
As VTDigger points out, Vermont's homeless population and the homeless in all areas affected by this heat wave, are in particular danger. They're basically outside all the time, of course. They might not have as easy access to clean water as we do. You really need to stay hydrated to remain safe in the kind of weather we're about to have.
Sometimes, homeless people fill water bottles with water from rivers, which is not at all safe.
As I said the other day, keep your eyes on your friends and neighbors who are elderly or have health problems. Make sure they'll have access to cool air. Or "kidnap" them for some time in a cool movie theater, shopping center or restaurant.
Remember the effects of heat waves on the body are cumulative. You might get through the heat on Tuesday like a trooper, but by Thursday, people can be in real trouble with heat illnesses.
Storms?
One secondary thing we'll have to watch out for is thunderstorms. They will be really few and far between Tuesday and Wednesday. But an updraft near a mountain, or a lake breeze hitting shore could fire up a storm here or there.
These storms will go from 0 to 100 in an instant and can become severe with damaging winds quickly. These storms will also quickly collapse, and die, and it's that phase in which they can unleash a fast microburst.
There's a somewhat better chance of storms possibly severe ,Thursday afternoon and evening as a disturbance approaches from Canada.
Lucking Out, Sort Of?
In some respects, ,we're lucking out there in Vermont. The strongest heat doesn't look like it will last as long as points further south - from Indiana and Ohio to the Mid-Atlantic. There the heat could last at least until Monday.
We in Vermont should turn more reasonable Friday into the weekend. It'll still be warm and humid, but not extremely hot. Unless a stalled weather front decides to position itself further north than expected.
That the heat dome will be just to our south Friday through the weekend puts us in Vermont potentially in what is known as the "ring of fire" Thunderstorms, potentially severe with heavy rain, often ride repeatedly along the northern edges of big heat domes.
Vermont could potentially be in that ring of fire. This is not a forecast per se, but an alert that the potential is there. It's hard to forecast where these storms might fire up. They could end up being mostly to our south or mostly to our north. Or they'll hit us directly, but not be all that bad. often have batches of
WEIRD WEATHER ELSEWHERE TOO
Whenever the weather pattern gets wonky in one spot, it will often make things weird elsewhere, too.
In this case, the huge heat dome forming over the eastern U.S. and southeast Canada helps create a corresponding dip in the jet stream further west.
The result is an odd cold snap in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies.
If you want at least a little psychological relief from the heat, you'll do well over the next couple of days watching videos from some high country in the northern Rockies.
A winter storm warning of all things is in effect for some of the high elevations of eastern Idaho and western Montana. Up to 14 inches of snow are expected in some spots.
While officials are warning outdoor enthusiasts to tone it down because of the heat in the Northeast, similar outdoor sporty types are told to guard against hypothermia, impassable backcountry roads and trees falling under the weight of the wet snow.
While this wintry weather in the northern Rockies and Northwest is definitely unusual for this time of year, it's not as extreme or weird as the heat wave we'll be experiencing.
Freeze warnings and frost advisories were in effect for high deserts areas in Nevada this morning. Strong, dry winds in California and the central and southern Rockies are raising wildfire concerns.
Meanwhile Minnesota and some surrounding areas are sandwiched between the heat to the east and the cold to the west.
That means they're stuck under repeated rains and storms that are raising flood concerns all week. Parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and the eastern Dakotas could see up to five inches of rain through the next seven days, on top of the heavy rains they already got over the weekend.
So I guess it's pick your poison for bad weather in the U.S. this week. We drew the "lucky" heat straw here in Vermont.
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