Kind Of A Weird Severe Storm Threat In Vermont Today

By the looks of the sky this morning over St. Albans,
Vermont, you'd think we're starting a refreshingly
cool, dry, bright sunny Sunday. But the humidity
was oppressive when this photo was taken,
which could help set off strong storms between
now and at least early afternoon. 

 As expected, we had a bunch of rain yesterday and last evening and as we start our Sunday, the air out there in Vermont is like a wet blanket. 

It's super humid, but at least the wind died down.  The gusts to over 40 mph in the Champlain Valley and a few other spots led to a few power outages and a bit of tree and garden damage.

The sun is out in many spots in Vermont early this morning, too. That is actually a potentially bad thing.  

As a pre-frontal trough - which is sort of a mini-cold front ahead of a "real" cold front - comes in, the sun could work with this thing, helping destabilize the air to create a few severe thunderstorms. 

Usually, it takes until well into the afternoon for storms to really get going, and this pre-frontal trough will mostly be past Vermont by, say 1 p.m. or so.

So all, good, right?

But the air is so humid, at least near the surface, and atmospheric conditions are primed enough so that strong storms could get going very early. I'm writing this at 8 a.m. Sunday, and there's already a couple storms developing in the Adirondacks. As of 8:45 a.m. one of them was approaching the northern Champlain Valley, but at that point didn't look severe. At least not yet. 

These could intensify pretty fast and bring strong wind gusts and torrential downpours to a few places in Vermont by later this morning. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington notes there's a layer of dry air high up above us. That would help limit the number of storms that form. 

The bottom line is that a few places could see some tree and power line damage this morning and early afternoon. Most places will be fine, but keep an eye to the skies. 

Also, in parts of northern Vermont, the soil is saturated.  The National Weather Service notes that the moderately heavy rain we saw yesterday and last night prompted quick rises along the Lamoille and Passumpsic rivers, and probably some smaller rivers and streams in northern Vermont. 

That's an indication that the soils can't hold much more rainfall. So, if any of these storms this morning or early afternoon are persistent, their torrential downpours could trigger a local flash flood. 

Not a guarantee, but something to watch. 

That pre-frontal trough, will head east and south into the rest of New England this afternoon and evening. There, the timing is such that those areas stand a better chance of severe storms that most of Vermont does. 

The activity back here in Vermont later this morning won't do all that much to ditch the high humidity, but it will help just a little. 

Meanwhile, the "real" cold front is lurking nearby. That will come through later this afternoon. The front could have its own batch of scattered shower and thunderstorms, but I strongly doubt there would be anything severe later on today. 

You'll notice the air changing this evening to something much more tolerable.

LOOKING AHEAD

As I mentioned yesterday, the weather systems over the past few days have been more energetic than usual for this time of year. They have been more like something you'd see in the spring, not summer.

Well, after this, summer is returning. In all respects. 

Weather fronts and storms will be weak, slow moving and erratic in the coming days, like they usually are in the summer. That will pretty much cut down on the drama, but of course, in the summer, if the conditions are right, you can alway get some strong storms or gullywashers.

So far, nothing particularly exciting is in the forecast for the next few days. 

You'll notice the temperatures will rise and so will the humidity after a comfortable Monday and sort of comfortable Tuesday.

We won't see extremely hot stuff like we dealt with in mid-June, but it will feel like summer. There will also be an almost ever-present threat of hit or miss showers and storms from Wednesday onward, but most of the time will be rain-free. 

At this point, it looks like the best chances of rain come Wedneday night, when a failing cold front arrives and pretty much passes out dead overhead. It could cause some local downpours, but nothing terrible.

The relative lack of rain in the upcoming week is mostly good. But it depends where you are in Vermont.

Much of northern Vermont needs to dry out some so we don't have a repeat of last summer's flood hell. On the other hand, parts of the southern half of Vermont could stand to see more rain. 

Any rain that does fall in the upcoming week, unfortunately is most likely in the northern half of the state.