Quick Vermont/New England Storm Update: Still A Worrisome Forecast For Sunday

That yellow shading depicting tornado risk is
relatively common in the Midwest during the
spring and early summer, but quite
rare in New England. Rough weather
still expected Sunday. 

I should offer a quick Saturday evening update on the severe weather we expect in Vermont and New England tomorrow, so here we go. 

If anything, forecasters have gotten even a little more confident of severe, dangerous thunderstorms and even maybe a few tornadoes in Vermont, along with eastern New York, most of the rest of New England and far southern Quebec on Sunday. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issues a rare 10 percent area for tornado risk in a good section of New England. That means there's a 10 percent chance that a tornado would touch down within 25 miles of that area. 

That sounds small, but it's pretty typical of a Midwestern style tornado outbreak. 

That 10 percent area is mostly in the southern half of Vermont and southwestern New Hampshire, but we shouldn't  really focus on that. 

There is at least a small chance of a tornado, and a greater chance of dangerous thunderstorms pretty much everywhere in New England except northeastern Maine. 

It already seems like this storm has a propensity to cause mischief.  It has caused severe flooding in South Dakota and Iowa.

It also has already started to spin off tornadoes. A confirmed, albeit rather weak tornado traveled two miles through Harwinton, Connecticut Friday with top winds of 85 mph. 

Social media early Saturday afternoon showed a funnel cloud or possible weak tornado near West Winfield, New York, which is very roughly halfway between Syracuse and Albany. The Hartford, Connecticut area was under a tornado warning for a time this afternoon.  Another apparent tornado appeared today near Angus, Ontario, north of Toronto.

That's all to say that this storm wants to cause problems. 

THE SETUP

Severe thunderstorms in New York and southern New England missed Vermont today, though there were some fairly strong storms in southwestern parts of the state.

The rest of the state was north of a warm front.  It was humid, overcast and showery in most of Vermont today, but we had nothing dramatic. Air  north of the front is too stable to cause much in the way of thunderstorms.

The warm front will continue slowly lifting north overnight and early Sunday and make it to southern Quebec. 

There could be a round of thunderstorms early Sunday, a few of which might be strong. But the main show will hit in the afternoon. 

We're still checking most of the boxes for ingredients that would create severe weather Sunday. We will be just south of a warm front in very humid, unstable air with a cold front and storm system approaching from the west.

Obviously, not everyone will see a tornado. Perhaps we'll get lucky and nobody will see a tornado in Vermont. 

But this isn't your usual wimpy storm outbreak. The severe thunderstorms will probably really mean business. Only some of Vermont's towns and cities will see a lot of damage, but there's a good chance a few places get blasted by winds well over 60 mph, which could cause a lot of damage.

I'll have many more details and updates when I post tomorrow morning. But you might start this evening storing away lawn furniture and stuff that would easily blow around in a bad storm.

And plan on spending Sunday in a place where you can quickly take cover in a sturdy building.