Early Afternoon Vermont Severe Risk Update: Storms Beginning To Fire, Tornado, Damaging Wind Risk Continues

National Weather Service radar at 12:30 p.m. today showed
storms just beginning to fire up in New York. Those storms
will rapidly intensify and expand as they head into
Vermont with damaging wind and even tornado risks. 

Storms were just beginning to fire up as of 12:30 p.m. today as we brace for a rare combo, for Vermont anyway, of intense thunderstorms and a real risk of a few tornadoes. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center said they would very likely issue a tornado watch for probably all of Vermont, almost all of New Hampshire  eastern New York and northern Massachusetts. We don't get too many tornado watches around here, so that's something to note. 

By the time you read this, we'll very probably be under that tornado watch. 

It does feel like tornado weather out there. At my place in St. Albans, we have fairly strong, gusty south winds and a lot of humidity.

The storms were initiating in central New York.  They hadn't developed in Vermont yet, but both the growing New York storms and new storms in the Green  Mountain State should get going soon.

You'll really need to stay on your toes today. The storms are and will be moving forward pretty fast. So there might not be much lead time between when the National Weather Service issues a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning and when the storm actually hits. 

If it's tornado warning, head to the basement pronto. If it's a severe thunderstorm warning, do the same, or at least stay away from the windows. 

It's still impossible to say who gets the worst storms around here. It'll be kind of random. The risk is statewide. And in adjacent states.  As always, it will be a matter of one town getting blasted by wind damage while the next town over is perfectly fine. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has the highest chances of tornadoes in central and southern Vermont, but again, they could pop up anywhere. 

Clouds have generally won out over sunshine late this morning and early afternoon. That might ever so slightly diminish the risk, but certainly not get rid of it. 

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said in a special weather statement issued a little before noon, we have a rare combination of high humidity, wind shear and forcing. 

By wind shear, they mean the wind is changing in direction and speed with height, which helps storms rotate and potentially generate a tornado. By forcing, they mean the atmosphere is primed to support tall, rapidly growing storms that can turn severe super fast.  

A disturbance called a pre-frontal trough is heading our way from New York this afternoon, which would further enhance storms. Also, a weak boundary extending down the Connecticut River Valley might add to the spin in the atmosphere, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, which might concentrate the tornado risk there. But again, that problem could occur anywhere in Vermont and surrounding areas. 

 The National Weather Service, in their special weather statement, went as far to suggest that people who live in mobile homes consider if possible relocating to more sturdy buildings this afternoon and evening. 

Pay attention to the weather, and warnings from now into the evening. The peak of this mess will probably come mid afternoon, but there could well be trouble before and after that. 

Stay safe, but don't panic. We don't mean to scare you because obviously if there are any tornadoes, they'll affect a tiny percentage of us. The damaging winds won't affect everybody either. But you never know in advance what will happen. Take all weather warnings today seriously, and make sure you have multiple ways to receive them.