Pacific Northwest Braces For Atmospheric Rivers, Flooding Over Next Few Days

Atmospheric rivers could bring up to 10 inches
of rain in the next few days parts of the Pacific
Northwest, raising flooding fears. This map is
forecast rain for the next 7 days. 

The Pacific Northwest has a wet, dark reputation this time of year. The people are nice enough, the weather is not. Sufferers of seasonal affective disorder will do well to avoid places like Seattle and Portland this time of year. 

Usually, it's a grinding, boring day after day realm of drizzle, light rain, fog and chill. Sometimes, though, things can really get out of hand. 

The next few days look what one of those out of hand periods.

A strong atmospheric river is due to hit Washington and Oregon beginning tomorrow and lasting through much of the week. This long lasting deluge is sure to cause at least some flooding and landslides as inches and inches of rain bombard the western halves of Washington and Oregon. 

Some areas of Washington and Oregon could get four to as much as 10 or more inches of rain by Wednesday night.   The Willamette Valley, which runs roughly from Portland to Eugene, Oregon, is expecting three to five inches of rain. 

The Seattle metro area could get two to five inches of rain, which means clogged drains and street flooding, landslides on steep slopes and shallow-rooted trees toppling over as soil turns to loose mud. 

But the real problem looks like it will be in the Cascade Mountains east of Seattle and Portland, and the Olympic Mountains of northwest Washington. 

Five to ten inches of rain could pour down on these mountains, which would quickly race down steep slopes into populated valleys below.  

The atmospheric river - really a series of atmospheric rivers - are tapping into tropical moisture which of course involves warm air. That means snow levels will be high.  You'll probably have to get above 6,000 above sea level to hit snow. That leaves only the higher peaks and volcanoes in the wintry weather. . 

The higher the snow level, the more water will race down the slopes, which is why everybody is so worried about flooding. Flood watches are up for all of the western third of Washington and much of western Oregon. 

Officials in both states said people in flood prone areas should have spent Saturday and as much of the day Sunday as they could getting ready for high water. 

It's always hard to predict exactly how high rivers will get in these situations. But the flood-prone Snoqualmie River is forecast to reach near major flood stage Tuesday, then have a secondary major flood stage peak on Thursday. 

Some of the flooding could extend across the border to Vancouver Island and other areas of southwest British Columbia, Canada, but the worst effects still look like they'll hit south of the border. 

The Cascade Mountains will wring out some of the moisture, so eastern Washington won't get much rain. But the storms will then hit the mountains of Idaho and western Montana, where more rain and snow will fall.

The snow levels in Idaho will be oddly high because of the warm air. Elevations below 8,200 feet or so will probably see mostly rain.  

This type of weather pattern often brings incredibly strong winds to parts of Montana and Wyoming, so those two states will be looking out for that this week.  

Late this week, the super rainy weather in the Pacific Northwest will slow down or stop for about a week, give or take. Then the atmospheric rivers might resume again. 

 

Rare Southern Winter Storm Set To Strike As Far South As Gulf Coast, Florida

Fox Weather has this extraordinary snow forecast
map for the Gulf Coast. Lots of snow for places
that far south. Could be a couple record snowfalls.

The Northeast is gearing up for a winter storm later today, as I noted this morning. 

But that part of the nation is used to that sort of thing in January. The real winter news is going on along the Gulf Coast of all places.  

Meanwhile, though, there are separate winter storm watches in effect in decidedly non-Arctic cities like Galveston, Houston, New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Mobile and Pensacola. 

Yeah, this is a weird one. Chances are you'll see lots of photos of palm trees dusted with snow. 

Those winter storm alerts actually cover most of the Gulf Coast and Deep South.   Those watches extend through southern and central Texas,  most of the southern halves of Mississippi and Alabama, and even the western tip of the Florida Panhandle. 

Eventually the storm is forecast to reach the coastal Carolinas. 

Baton Rouge could see three to five inches of snow out of this. New Orleans is possibly in line for one to three inches. 

Parts of far eastern Texas and central Louisiana are expecting up to eight inches of snow.

A bit of snow or ice could mix in with rain Tuesday night even in Tallahassee and Jacksonville, Florida. 

Winter storms happen from time to time in the Deep South. There was just one last week. But those winter conditions usually don't extend southward to Interstate 10, which hugs the Gulf Coast from Florida to Houston. 

This time, however, it looks like it might just happen. 

This kind of thing can obviously be dangerous in areas that aren't used to snow.  There's the obvious travel problems, since the Gulf Coast isn't exactly ready with snow plows and salt truck like they are up here in Vermont.

The 5 to 8 inches of snow expected in central and western Louisiana could collapse flat roofs and awnings, since such structures aren't built for snow loads in that area. Trees could collapse under the weight of the snow and ice too. 

The cause, of course, is that Arctic blast roaring down from Canada. It's making it all the way to the Gulf Coast.

Storms often form on the southern and eastern edges of these frigid air outbreaks. That's why there's a storm on the leading edge of the cold air on the East Coast today. 

This bitter air is running into the warm waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico, so a storm is forming there. The storm will force balmy air from the Gulf to try and ride up and over the cold, dense air along the coast. 

There, the risk is freezing rain and sleet. But inland just a bit, the cold air will be thick enough so the precipitation will start out as snow and make it all the down to the ground as those flakes. 

Usually this kind of thing sets up a little further north, but this time, it's further south than usual. This could be a record breaker or near record breaker in some areas. 

GULF COAST SNOW RECORDS

 New Orleans has not seen measurable snow in 15 years. 

The biggest snowstorm in New Orleans history came on Valentine's Day, 1895, when eight inches accumulated. That same storm dumped an incredible 22 inches of snow on Houston, Texas and Lake Charles, Louisiana, and 12.5 inches on Baton Rouge 

At least something like that won't happen this time.  

In modern history, the biggest snowstorm in New Orleans was 2.7 inches on December 31, 1963. There is a chance they could get that much in this week's storm. 

Baton Rouge has a shot at receiving its biggest snowstorm in the past 100 years, too. The had six inches in February, 1940. The next biggest snowstorms were 3.5 inches on January 23, 1940 and December 8, 2017.

Florida's biggest snowstorm that I could find was four inches in the town of Milton, a little northeast of Pensacola on March 6, 1954. There is a very low, but not zero chance of that much snow falling in the northwest corner of Florida this week.   

In December, 1989 three inches was reported at two northern Florida cities and 2.5 inches fell that day at Jacksonville, Beach 

Friday Morning Vermont Debby Update: Early Rain Over-Performs; Flood/Wind Risk Continues

The National Weather Service in South Burlington 
released this rainfall prediction map. It includes what
already fell, and what will come down through 
Saturday morning. As you can see, New York
gets the heaviest rain. We'll have to watch for
pockets of locally heavier rain in Vermont that
might not be depicted in this map. Still, more than
two inches of rain is fairly impressive .

 The first batch of heavy rain associated with former Tropical Storm Debby lifted through Vermont overnight and early this morning as expected. 

Unfortunately, it over-performed in central and northern Vermont dumping more rain than predicted in many areas. That primes the pump, so to speak, for possible additional flooding later today.

We can also expect some wind damage in parts of Vermont today, along with isolated instances of severe thunderstorms. There's even a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado this afternoon or evening. 

Despite the trouble brewing in Vermont, the bigger threat for flash flooding has continued to focus on northern New York and a little less on the Green Mountain State for this event. 

Let's take it step by step again.

THIS MORNING

You probably did hear the occasional roar of downpours on your roof overnight and early this morning. One to 1.5 inches of rain, with spot amounts to two inches fell in a band from eastern Addison County, through Barre-Montpelier and on off to St. Johnsbury. 

Both Montpelier and St. Johnsbury reported about 1.7 inches of rain already as of 7 a.m. since this all started last night. 

This is precisely the wrong area to see the heaviest rain, as that zone has experienced the worst of the flooding this summer. 

Already, a flood warning was posted this morning for parts of the Northeast Kingdom from St. .Johnsbury to points north and west including Lyndonville and Barton.

 This Northeast Kingdom region is especially prone to added flood damage because the hasty repairs to roads and culverts after the massive July 30 flash flood are not stable or complete. So the added downpours this morning could be causing more damage.

All that said, the biggest flood threat from the remnants of Debby today are across northern New York, where the heaviest rain is falling, and will fall.

The Mad River at Moretown rose by more than three feet in just a few hours early this morning, but appeared to be stabilizing below flood stage at dawn. Still, since river levels are now higher than expected, that increases the chances somewhat that flooding could occur this evening. 

All that said, the biggest flood threat remains in New York. But Vermont will need to be watched closely today. 

TODAY

You might notice a lull in the rain for awhile this morning but it will pick up again. The steady, heavy rain today and this evening will focus on New York State, but there will be fitful showers and storms throughout the day across Vermont.

The showers, rain and downpours will tend to be out concentrated from mid or late afternoon into the evening. That's probably when we'll have our biggest risk of any flash flooding. Again, it's one of those cases where not everybody has a crisis. Most places should be fine with the amount of rain we received and are about to get. 

However, some places will be dealing with washed out roads, basement flooding and other problems you get with intense rainfall rates.

We'll have to watch rainfall rates and whether any particular spot is hit by repeated downpours. If  former Debby behaves as expected, Vermont flooding problems will probably be relatively minor - mostly nuisance level - at least in most cases.  If former Debby really over-performs with especially heavy downpours, all bets are off. 

The National Weather Service and other meteorologists are watching this closely.  

There's other trouble brewing today, too: 

Wind

The remnants of Debby still have some wind energy.  That will channel gusts from south to north up the Champlain Valley. Also, southeast wind going up and over the Green Mountains will tend to grab some higher speed winds from aloft and bring them to the surface.

It's the classic western slope windstorm type deal we sometimes get in the winter. So, the National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory for the Champlain Valley and western slopes of the Greens. A wind advisory like this is fairly common in the winter, but very rare in the summer. But here we are. 

For today, all this will result in possible gusts in a few spots of up to 50 or 55 mph. That's enough to break branches and uproot a few trees and take down a few power lines.  Remember, trees uproot more readily when the ground is wet and soggy, so that will be an issue. 

Severe Storms/Tornado?

With any tropical or former tropical system, you often seen rotating storms, especially along and east of the storm's track. That could happen in Vermont. I would say if this does happen, it's most likely along or south of Route 2. 

A few storms could develop strong, damaging winds.  Since these storms will be rotating, we can't rule out a brief tornado somewhere in the state. The chances are low, but they're definitely not zero. These kinds of things with tropical type systems can develop and fade fast, so you might not much advance warning, if any warning, in the case of anything developing. 

IT ENDS QUICKLY

The heavy rain and wind will shut down quickly in Vermont tonight.  Western areas might see things settle down by 9 p.m., and by midnight or so east. Runoff from the heavy rain will continue to be an issue overnight, so we'll need to watch how river levels go. 

Most of the river flooding will be in northern New York. But we'll need to keep our eye on the Mad River, and possibly a few others. If any rivers do flood in Vermont, strong chances are it would be minor flooding, not the major flooding we saw in July.

All bets are off, though, if the rain today is much heavier than forecast. 

Saturday actually still looks like a nice summer day. Showers should re-develop Sunday afternoon and evening, but they shouldn't be intense enough to cause any new flood worries. 

Eastern U.S. Seems To Be Latest Severe Weather Target, Vermont Catching A Break

The weather pattern favors occasional bouts of severe
thunderstorms in the Northeast over the next week or 
more. However, Vermont will be on the sidelines
of today's outbreak, and also possibly again
with new storms over the weekend. 

 As we all know, there's been a ton of severe weather, tornadoes and flooding hitting the U.S. repeatedly since April.  

The storm train continues, and it seems the eastern United States is most under the gun at the moment.   On Sunday, we had those tornado watches, severe thunderstorms and flash flooding in the Northeast, including a confirmed tornado in Dublin, New Hampshire. 

The northern tier of the United States is now under a fast jet stream, at least by summer standards, and that means lots of opportunities for severe weather. 

The seemingly ever-present heat dome in the south and Midwest keeps trying to send hot air up into the Northeast, but the cold fronts keep cutting it off at the pass. Especially the further north you go.

The cold fronts, encountering those attempts at hot, humid air, create the ingredients for severe weather. That's what happened Sunday.

Although Vermont got hit over the weekend, we do seem to be catching a break this week. Severe thunderstorms are in the cards today for a broad area extending from Kentucky and Ohio to near New York City.

Strong straight line winds and local flash floods will be the end result. Far southern Vermont might catch an isolated strong storm, but in general, Vermont will sit this one out. 

The Green Mountain State did manage to get some showers overnight and this morning. More showers are due tonight. But I don't see anything scary in this forecast. 

The next wave of potentially severe weather comes to the East Saturday and Sunday. It's still too early to know the extent and exact location of any severe storms this weekend, but it looks inevitable somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast.

That also means it's too soon to tell if Vermont will participate in this, but early betting suggests we might once again avoid the worst of it. 

This regime of storm threats once every two or three days is actually fairly common in the summer.  It usually takes some activity from the jet stream to help encourage stormy weather. 

The jet stream usually retreats to southern Canada in the summer, but the Northeast is sometimes close enough to the jet stream to have some strong thunderstorms spin off. Especially if heat and humidity lurks just to the south to add fuel, as is going on now. 

As we head into July, who knows, but best early guesses is this up and down temperature yoyo between refreshing days and muggy ones will continue, and those storm risks will probably come through with every transition. 

Early Afternoon Vermont Severe Risk Update: Storms Beginning To Fire, Tornado, Damaging Wind Risk Continues

National Weather Service radar at 12:30 p.m. today showed
storms just beginning to fire up in New York. Those storms
will rapidly intensify and expand as they head into
Vermont with damaging wind and even tornado risks. 

Storms were just beginning to fire up as of 12:30 p.m. today as we brace for a rare combo, for Vermont anyway, of intense thunderstorms and a real risk of a few tornadoes. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center said they would very likely issue a tornado watch for probably all of Vermont, almost all of New Hampshire  eastern New York and northern Massachusetts. We don't get too many tornado watches around here, so that's something to note. 

By the time you read this, we'll very probably be under that tornado watch. 

It does feel like tornado weather out there. At my place in St. Albans, we have fairly strong, gusty south winds and a lot of humidity.

The storms were initiating in central New York.  They hadn't developed in Vermont yet, but both the growing New York storms and new storms in the Green  Mountain State should get going soon.

You'll really need to stay on your toes today. The storms are and will be moving forward pretty fast. So there might not be much lead time between when the National Weather Service issues a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning and when the storm actually hits. 

If it's tornado warning, head to the basement pronto. If it's a severe thunderstorm warning, do the same, or at least stay away from the windows. 

It's still impossible to say who gets the worst storms around here. It'll be kind of random. The risk is statewide. And in adjacent states.  As always, it will be a matter of one town getting blasted by wind damage while the next town over is perfectly fine. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has the highest chances of tornadoes in central and southern Vermont, but again, they could pop up anywhere. 

Clouds have generally won out over sunshine late this morning and early afternoon. That might ever so slightly diminish the risk, but certainly not get rid of it. 

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington said in a special weather statement issued a little before noon, we have a rare combination of high humidity, wind shear and forcing. 

By wind shear, they mean the wind is changing in direction and speed with height, which helps storms rotate and potentially generate a tornado. By forcing, they mean the atmosphere is primed to support tall, rapidly growing storms that can turn severe super fast.  

A disturbance called a pre-frontal trough is heading our way from New York this afternoon, which would further enhance storms. Also, a weak boundary extending down the Connecticut River Valley might add to the spin in the atmosphere, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, which might concentrate the tornado risk there. But again, that problem could occur anywhere in Vermont and surrounding areas. 

 The National Weather Service, in their special weather statement, went as far to suggest that people who live in mobile homes consider if possible relocating to more sturdy buildings this afternoon and evening. 

Pay attention to the weather, and warnings from now into the evening. The peak of this mess will probably come mid afternoon, but there could well be trouble before and after that. 

Stay safe, but don't panic. We don't mean to scare you because obviously if there are any tornadoes, they'll affect a tiny percentage of us. The damaging winds won't affect everybody either. But you never know in advance what will happen. Take all weather warnings today seriously, and make sure you have multiple ways to receive them. 

Quick Vermont Monday Evening Storm Update: Winter Storm, High Wind Watches

The latest snow forecast map from the National 
Weather Service office in South Burlington, issued
this afternoon. It only goes through 8 p.m. Thursday.
so a little more might fall in the mountains after that.
This map is also very much subject to change. 

 Doing a very quick update this Monday evening on the expected storm coming later this week. Mostly because the National Weather Service has hoisted some weather watches for different  parts of the Vermont.  

A winter storm watch is now in effect for the Green Mountain chain, and sizable chunks of southern and central Vermont. 

The watch goes from sometime Wednesday morning through the late night on Thursday. The areas under the watch can expect six to 14 inches of snow, with locally higher amounts in the mountains. 

So far, the only parts of Vermont not under any kind of winter weather watch is the Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom. These areas will still see snow,  but not as much. The White Mountains of New Hampshire will probably block some of the deep moisture necessary for snow from reaching the Northeast Kingdom.

The Green Mountains will probably block a little moisture from reaching the Champlain Valley, too. And it'll be a little warmer there, so rain will mix in during parts of the storm

That relatively brief window later Wednesday during which strong winds could occur in Rutland County, especially along the western slopes of the Greens, has gotten a little more certain. However, the strong damaging winds could extend all the way to the New York border, 

Which is why all of Rutland County is under a high wind watch later Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds could gust to over 60 mph. 

Strong winds, perhaps not as powerful as in Rutland County, could extend northward along the western slopes, too, all the way to near Jay Peak.  Combined with wet snow, the winds are a recipe for power failures. 

Speaking of which, this still looks like it will be a wet, heavy snow, so power outages could occur anywhere in the state during this storm. 

Other changes to the forecast have rain and snow starting a little later in the day Wednesday.  It'll also be slightly warmer than first thought on Wednesday, so rain will predominate at first before a changeover to snow in most spots.

I'll have much more on this storm in tomorrow morning's post.

Thursday Evening Storm Forecast: Wind Forecast Worsens A Bit For Big Storm #2

An uprooted tree leans against a St. Albans, Vermont house
after Wednesday's wind storm. I haven't checked to see
whether this tree has been removed. But it's an example of
how incomplete repairs from Wednesday's storm
could mean additional damage with Saturday 
morning's expected second big wind storm

 We're having a relatively snowy afternoon across much of Vermont today. It won't amount to much but it's enough to make you want to slow down for the afternoon commute. 

Main highways don't look terrible, but there is a bit of snow, slush and ice on them, so you'll want to be careful. The snow will stop tonight, with almost all of us seeing an inch or less. Mountains could come in with a couple inches. 

Friday is the calm before Big Storm #2.  You'll see sun fade behind increasing clouds, with seasonable temperatures. Especially along the western slopes of the Green Mountains, you'll want to drag out your LED candles and flashlights again.

THE STORM ITSELF 

Just like Wednesday's storm, the main threat is the wind, followed by problems with snow and mixed precipitation. 

First, the wind:

As I expected, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington has expanded the high wind watches. Instead of the high wind alert just being limited to the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains, the watch now covers all of Rutland and Addison counties in southwestern Vermont. It also covers all of Lamoille and Orleans counties,

The high wind watch has also been expanded into eastern Franklin County. All these areas were hard hit early Wednesday, so this will be a problem. I'm sure other areas of Vermont will go under at least a wind advisory as we get closer to the event. 

If the current forecast holds, peak winds would  come a little later Saturday morning than then did during Storm #1 Peak winds this time look like they'll hit very roughly between 2 and 9 a.m. Saturday. 

There's a couple wrinkles with this new wind storm that you oughta know about. 

First of all, some trees have been weakened by the strong winds early Wednesday. I noticed some trees in St. Albans, for instance, didn't topple, but they're now leaning toward the northwest, as if they've begun the process of being uprooted.

Since the wind will come out of the same direction Friday night, this Big Storm #2 might finish the job and blow these trees over.  Especially where there's already a lot of tree damage from Wednesday. 

There are also damaged roofs, siding and other structural problems that haven't been fixed yet that could get worse with the new storm. Even if peak gusts end up being a little lower than in the last storm.

Power lines have been hastily repaired, and might not be as securely installed as they might otherwise be. (Power companies often make quick fixes to get electricity flowing, then come back, and make the fixes better). There was still about 3,500 homes and business in Vermont without power as of 4 p.m. today, says VTOutages.org.  Crews will be using tomorrow's break in the weather to rush remaining repairs.

Another thing: While Big Storm #2 looks like it will be a little weaker than Big Storm #1 was, there is a still chance for winds to be quite strong, going to 70 mph or more in a few areas. The winds get more intense when there's a lull in the precipitation, which is what happened for two or three hours early Wednesday morning. 

It looks like there might be a bigger lull in the snow and mixed precipitation and rain in the early morning hours of Saturday, which might encourage more wind.

Like the last time, the most snow will fall in the mountains.  Higher elevations should see three to seven inches, as it looks now, with valleys getting anything from a half inch to three inches.

By the time it gets warm enough for snow and mixed precipitation to go over to rain early Wednesday, there won't be much more moisture coming. So any rain we do get still looks like it won't set off  any flooding to speak of.

The weather pattern still looks like it will turn noticeably colder, and possibly stay active next week. I don't see a Big Storm #3 coming at this time, but there could be some storminess next week if all the little disturbances swirling around North America line up just right. 

Tornado Outbreak Kills At Least Six, Widespread Destruction In And Around Tennessee

Tornado damage in Tennessee from News Channel 5

The same storm system that is menacing the eastern United States including Vermont with heavy rain, snow and wind unleashed deadly tornadoes in the Mid-South Saturday. 

The tornadoes killed at least six people and injured dozens. 

The twisters caused widespread destruction, with the worst of it being in Clarksville, Tennessee and in the northern reaches of Nashville. Saturday's tornado came just three years after an even worse tornado trashed much of the northern side of the city. 

There were at least 25 tornado reports Saturday, and an additional three so far today in an area near where Alabama, Georgia and Florida meet. 

This storm is forecast to possibly spin off more tornadoes and severe weather from Florida to Virginia this afternoon and evening.  As of 1 p.m. today, areas near Raleigh, North Carolina were under a tornado warning. 

Video from Tennessee Saturday shows one tornado creating power flashes as it moved across the landscape, probably created from electrical transformers it was destroying. Then the tornado sets off a large explosion and fireball, which were then ingested into the swirling mess.

Tornadoes often occur in the South during the winter. In fact, today is the second anniversary of a much more serious tornado outbreak, which killed 88 people, and all but destroyed the city of Mayfield, Kentucky. 

An El Nino is ongoing. During winters with an El Nino, tornadoes, severe weather and flooding become more likely across the South.

Which means Saturday's tornadoes might be the opening salvo in what could be a long, terrible winter from Texas to the Carolinas. 

Chaotic Day Eastern New England, Vigilance In Vermont

UPDATE: 10:15:

I spoke too soon. Just after I posted this, the first flash flood warning of the day was posted in part of north central Vermont. Watch out in areas like Morrisville, Stowe, Worcester, Eden. 

I'm sure more flash flood warning are coming. This is just the start.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

It's already a wild day in eastern New England, especially in New Hampshire, where numerous flash flood warnings are in effect, there's also a tornado watch for that state and rest of eastern New England, and I've seen at least one tornado warning on the New Hampshire/Massachusetts border.  

Lots of warnings today in Northeast. 
Green is flood watch, yellow is tornado watch,
dark red is flash flood warning, and hard to see,
but bright red is tornado warning. That
grey in the Midwest is this summer's 
ever-present wildfire smoke. Ugh. 

In Vermont, it's so far quite a bit quieter, but everybody is still on a high state of alert for possible new flooding today. I'll get to that in a minute.

But first, our eastern and southern neighbors:

WEEKEND IN NEW ENGLAND

Today is not the peaceful stuff of that old Barry Manilow song. that's for sure. All of southern New Hampshire was under a flash flood warning as of 9:15 this morning.  Rainfall rates of two to three inches per hour were reported.

Western Connecticut if under a flash flood warning, too. I've seen photos on social media of water rescues from flooded homes in and around Waterbury. Connecticut

Additional thunderstorms should last most of the day in central and southern New England and on into New Hampshire.  Some areas win this danger zone could see four to six inches of rain today, with possibly higher amounts. 

The heavy rain will be in streaks, where storms train, or line up like box cars. There will be some towns that get six inches of rain and terrible flash flooding, while communities a few miles to the northwest or southeast just see a couple inches. 

To make matters worse, there's enough spin the air in southern New England, southern and central New Hampshire and southwestern Maine to raise the risk of tornadoes through this morning and early afternoon.).

It appears the highest threat for tornadoes south and east of us is between about now and noon. 

More spinups were showing up on radar in central Massachusetts as of 10 a.m. 

VERMONT VIGILANCE

We're not out of the woods. As of 9:30 a.m. locally heavy rain was reported in parts of the state, especially east of the Green Mountains.  So far, it hasn't been enough to create any reported new floods, but the alert is up. Way up. 

All of Vermont except the immediate Champlain Valley remains under a flood watch today.  Local flash floods could happen anywhere in the state today, but seem most likely along and east of the Green Mountains. 

This first batch was still crossing Vermont as of 10 a.m, but was looking like it would at least temporarily need soon in western parts of the state.

There are embedded areas with rainfall rates of more than one inch an hour. That's more than enough to set off some flash flooding as early as within the next couple of hours in parts of the state.

After this first area of rain mostly moves out of Vermont by noon or a little after, we're not done. 

New thunderstorms will develop this afternoon.  They will be somewhat hit and miss, but potent in terms of rainfall.  The air is as humid as it can possibly get this far north. It's basically like Florida. 

There is so much water available for torrential downpours. Any of these storms can produce flash flooding. The ground is so saturated that pretty much anything that falls will run off.  It's hard to say who will get a new flash flood in Vermont today, but someone will. That's almost a guarantee.

Main stem rivers will be more behaved than last week. However, some like the Otter Creek and Winooski River will probably reach flood stage.  

It won't be as bad as the  historic floods of last week, and downtown Montpelier is still looking safe from a new inundation. 

As for the tornado threat, I suppose there's a non-zero chance in far southeastern parts of the state, but it's unlikely. We had our own tornado up in Benson and Sudbury Thursday, so don't feel left out.

One or two of the storms this afternoon could produce a microburst, which would mean severe winds in a couple of spots, but that is fairly low and pretty isolated. 

I'll have updates later today as warranted. This is just a quick overview to get you started this mid morning Sunday. 

1 PM Thursday Update: Severe Storm Threat Grows In Vermont/New York, Watch Issued

Northern and central New York and extreme western
Vermont have been upgraded to "enhanced" risk
of severe storms today. That means numerous
severe storms are likely. Slight risk means
scattered instances of severe weather. 

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for all of Vermont and all of New York except for the extreme west out by Buffalo.   

Moreover, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has increased the alert level for severe thunderstorms from "slight" to "enhanced."  The rest of Vermont is still listed under "slight" risk.

Enhanced risk is level three on a five point scale of thunderstorm risk. It's the first enhanced level we've seen in Vermont this year.  Slight risk means there will likely be scattered instances of severe storms, defined as having winds of greater than 58 mph and/or hail one inch in diameter or bigger.

An enhanced risk means there should be numerous severe thunderstorms. Western Vermont in particular ought to keep an eye on the skies and pay attention to warnings. 

There continues to be a very small, but not zero risk of a tornado in the Champlain Valley or elsewhere in western Vermont. But the main threat is strong straight line winds.

Even though the risk of a tornado is low, it will feel like tornado weather out ahead of the storms in the Champlain Valley this afternoon. South winds will be gusty, possibly reaching as high as 35 mph.  Avoid boating on Lake Champlain today.

Amid the winds, it will continue to get increasingly hot and humid ahead of the storms. 

A severe thunderstorm watch, which we are now under, just means conditions are favorable for bad storms. If you see a severe thunderstorm warning for your area, that means a bad storm is about to hit.

If/when you get a severe thunderstorm warning today, go into a sturdy building and try to stay away from windows. This risk is somewhat higher than the usual hit and miss stuff we get.

As of 1 p.m., the developing line of severe storms was approaching Syracuse and Watertown, New York and was making steady progress east while strengthening. 

FLOODING

Of course, with all this going on, the flooding risk remains. The thinking from this morning so far hasn't changed much. The storms late this afternoon and evening will have the potential to cause renewed flash flooding anywhere in Vermont.

The greatest risk, though is in the southern half of the state. That risk will last well into the night. 

Bottom line: Vermont is about suffer more storm damage, which we surely don't need. The damage we will incur today and tonight will be much, much less than what we went through Monday and Tuesday. 

But every little bit hurts all the more. Stay safe and stay Vermont Strong. 

Weird U.S. Weather Week Starts, We'll Wait A Few Days For Our Turn In Vermont

The map on the home page of the National Weather Service
is getting colorful, especially west. That means plenty
of weather alerts due to a developing, sprawling storm.
These colors will spread east in the coming days 
with the storm.

 As advertised, a week of weird, extreme weather has started in much of the nation.

I noticed this  morning the National Weather Service hone page map is getting quite colorful. That's always a sign of weather trouble, because the colors depict various storm warnings, watches and advisories. 

It will keep spreading eastward as time goes on, finally hitting us in Vermont Wednesday night through Thursday night. 

Yesterday, we already talked about the record heat expected in the Southeast this week. 

If the East is warm, chances are the West will be cold, and that's definitely the case. Snow levels this week could drop as low as 1,000 feet above sea level in the Los Angeles area. Places like the foothills in the San  Fernando Valley which almost never see snow have a good shot of experiencing some flakes later this week.

Passes over the mountains, like the I-5 Grapevine, could become impassable. Expected high temperatures in Los Angeles later this week are only in the low 50s. That's a good 15 degrees below normal.

I'm still impressed by how much snow is expected over such a huge area of the nation from the storm that is developing. 

Winter storm watches and warnings, with a few embedded blizzard warnings this morning stretched all the way from near the Oregon coast to Wisconsin. Those watches and warnings will almost definitely be extended all the way to northern New England by mid to late week. 

The central and northern Plains and the upper Midwest are used to snowstorms, but this one looks a lot deeper than  your traditional winter fare.

Forecasters are already giving the Minneapolis-St. Paul area a 90 percent chance of seeing at least a foot of snow. More than two feet is not out of the question. 

At least a foot of snow is forecast from Wyoming to Wisconsin as well. There's a chance snow that deep could reach Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, but that is still iffy at the moment. 

South of that broad band of snow, forecasters have increasing fears of a damaging ice storm in a large band extending from northern Illinois, through southern Michigan, southern Ontario, western and central New York and on into southwestern New England,

That ice threat is not cast in stone quite yet. But if it develops, a lot of people are going to lose electricity for some time. 

VERMONT UPDATE

Though things can radically change, it's still steady as she goes for the forecast for the mid to late week storm here.

A small system today, and a slightly larger one tomorrow will spread some spotty rain and snow through the state. We could see enough snow to create slick spots on some of the roads Tuesday. But only a dusting to two inches is in the cards. That might be mixed with rain in the valleys.

The main show still looks like it will run Wednesday night to early Friday morning. The expected snow will wax and wane during that time. Still, an early read on this suggests we could get a foot or more of snow in at least some parts of Vermont. 

We also have the question of how far north sleet and freezing rain reaches. Southern Vermont is still most at risk for this .

The models have trended a bit colder this morning for this storm, which would favor snow. The problem is, the models could easily flip flop back to warmer air aloft. So it's still a big question mark as to what exactly will fall from the sky over Vermont mid to late week. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Some Winter Watches Upgraded To Warnings; Long Storm Likely

A new snow forecast map issued by the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington. Click on the map to make
it bigger and easier to see. Compared to this morning's map.
expected snow totals have increased somewhat. 

 As they always do, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has been refining their forecast for what will probably be the first major winter storm of the season in Vermont late Thursday into Saturday.  

Also, as expected, there have been some changes to the forecast. Most of those changes favor snow lovers. But that doesn't mean everybody gets a huge dump of snow.  We still have question marks and red flags with this storm forecast.

You know, all those meteorologists trying to forecast this storm seem so cool and collected. But I bet they're pulling their hair out trying to get this one right. And drinking, perhaps heavily, after their work shifts. This is a tough forecast. 

The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a winter storm warning for central Vermont from Lamoille County all the way down to the Massachusetts border. In those areas, confidence has increased enough that a pretty decent dump of snow seems inevitable from late Thursday night into Saturday.

Those of you in the winter storm warning zone can expect 9 to 18 inches of snow, but some favored spots could end up with two feet of new snow by Saturday afternoon. That's at least according to the latest thoughts from the NWS Burlington.

If things pan out as currently expected this will really be a great high elevation snow, perfect for Vermont's ski industry as we gear up for the Christmas holiday. The resorts have been making snow, and they've gotten a little natural stuff in recent days, but they can really use the boost from a big dump, and the publicity surrounding said big dump.

I'm sure the marketing departments at Vermont's resorts are working overtime on this to get the word out, if this dump actually happens. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, we're still under a winter storm watch, not a warning. The Northeast Kingdom was not under any kind of alert this morning, but that winter storm watch has now been expanded to include them as well.

It makes sense that the National Weather Service hasn't upgraded that watch, as there's still some questions.  Uh, some questions? Many questions. Like exactly where the storm goes, how much moisture it has to play with, how warm it will get and the precise wind directions. That'll all greatly influence how much snow any particular place gets.

(Remember, a winter storm watch means conditions are favorable for a winter storm. A winter storm warning means a big, noticeable storm is pretty much inevitable).

In general, though, the predicted amount of snow in the forecast area wide is a little more than what was in the forecast this morning. 

What follows is what the National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks will happen with this storm. As you know, new data could make them change their minds and come up with a different scenario for this storm. But here's what the thinking is for now:

The initial thump of snow still looks like it wants to come through from a little after midnight Friday through the Friday morning commute.  The morning commute looks like it could be a huge mess virtually statewide, with wet snow coming down at a rate of one to two inches per hour.

You might want to start working with your boss to just work at home instead of driving to the office, if possible. I'd expect a fair amount of school closings, too. So plan on entertaining the kiddos at home. I'd just make them shovel the driveway.

During the afternoon, it looks like the moisture feed coming off the Atlantic would come almost directly from the east, or maybe southeast. That might keep the snow going full blast on the eastern slopes of the Greens, and the summits. That's a big part of the logic behind the new winter storm warning in central Vermont.

In this scenario, the Green Mountains would block a lot of the moisture from getting into the Champlain Valley, and the low elevations in southwestern Vermont all the way down to Bennington. In these places, the snow would taper off to just light stuff or nothing at all. it will probably warm up enough to also create periods of light rain and/or drizzle in these valleys. Sounds lovely. 

For snow lovers in the Champlain Valley, there is some hope. Friday night and Saturday, the wind will shift to the north, and moisture will still be feeding in from the Atlantic from this slow-moving nor'easter. 

When you get a set up like that, the air coming in from Quebec gets squeezed between the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. When the air gets squeezed like that, it has to rise to have room. Rising air encourages moisture to cool, condense and fall as snow. If things work out just right, that would mean several inches of snow for the Champlain Valley Friday night and Saturday. 

This is still expected to be a wet, heavy snow, especially at elevations below 2,000 feet or so. That's most of us, frankly. If the snow comes down as hard as some forecasts indicate, expect at least scattered power outages. 

Get your LED candles ready Thursday night just in case and charge your devices.

There's still a ton of wild cards as of this Wednesday evening that might make this forecast a bust, or at least create some major changes.

As I mentioned this morning, the American computer models insist on taking the main nor'easter well off the coast, which would diminish how much snow we'd get. As of late this afternoon, the American model was still insisting this would be a case. That's at odds with all the other models, which say the storm will go along the coast.

Just because the Mean Girl other models are ganging up on the American model, we can't say the computer model from the good old U.S. of A is wrong. Maybe it's seeing what nobody else is seeing?

We don't know how warm it will get. On paper, it looks like the valleys will get above freezing for just a few hours, if at all, and the warmest temperatures would come when the precipitation is lightest.

I've often seen the computer models underestimate the strength of warm air intrusions with storms like this. Especially early in the winter. Also, the water temperature off the New England coast is warmer than normal. Will that make the air coming into northwestern New England warmer than predicted, and give us more rain?   Maybe.

If you're a snow lover and get burned by this storm, you still have a shot at joy. Longer range forecasts - though not always accurate - are suggesting below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation well into the week between Christmas and New Year. That would suggest plenty of snow.

I wouldn't hang my hat on that scenario, but maybe! 

As is always the case in a situation like this, expect an update from me tomorrow morning. 

Live Blog: Henri Floods New England, New York, New Jersey, PA

9:15 pm EDT Sunday

I'm going to call it a night already and then revive this first thing in the morning. The heaviest rain and the biggest flood threat has shifted west, at least for the overnight, into southern New York, northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.

When the remains of Henri reverse course back toward the east tomorrow, the threat of flooding in southern Vermont would come back. As I noted numerous times, this is a weird, weird storm so I don't believe anything until I see it.  

Expect surprises, good or bad.  But at least for us in Vermont so far, this has been a piece of cake. Let that continue, please.

8:12 pm EDT Sunday

Decayed outer rain band of Tropical Storm Henri made it 
all the way up to St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont
this evening, creating this lovely rainbow. 
You can sort of see a second rainbow to the righ

I don't want to minimize the severity of the flooding and the danger from Henri occurring now, mostly in southern New York and New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.  

But you can tell from these posts that from my perch in St. Albans, Vermont, the fact that the tropics have been brought north to me, I'm absolutely astounded by the skies.

Everything I've seen today is surely just typical for Caribbean islands, but since we don't ever get that type of thing up here in Vermont, it's just wonderful, to be honest.

I was fascinated by the deep blue tropical skies. the balmy east winds that are just like tropical trade winds, and the delicate clouds of Henri's dying rain bands.

It got even better at sunset tonight in St. Albans, Vermont.  A dying Henri rain band approaching from the east built a spectacular rainbow. Almost all the rain was aloft. All we got was a sprinkle. But that evening rainbow just made me happy.  You can see why in the photo. 

8:06 pm EDT Sunday

So interesting, at least for now, that the heavy rains with Henri are movin so far west that southern Vermont is in the clear, at least for now. Connecticut, where I thought the worst of the flooding might happen is in the clear at this hour too.

The worst rains of Henri are now in the Catskills and in the southern Hudson Valley and northern New Jersey. This seems to be the place that will get the worst flooding from Henri.  Up to eight inches of rain are in the forecast for those areas I just described.

I'm not sure how things will evolve tomorrow as the remains of Henri turn around and head back east. I knew this would be a weird, weird, system.  It's even weirder than I imagines.

6:27 pm EDT Sunday

This is just a weather nerd geeking out. The pretty, rather unstable looking clouds I just took a photo of over St. Albans, Vermont are the decayed remnant of an initial rain band with Tropical Storm Henri.  

On the edges of a tropical storm or hurricane, you get outer bands of rough weather, They come in, and you get strong, gusty winds and torrential rains, then they move on.  

Subsequent bands get worse and worse until you are in the teeth of a dangerous hurricane.

The remains of the outer rain bands of Henri obviously petered out by the time they got to northwest Vermont.  It was still interesting though that when these clouds arrived, the wind picked up from the east in the 10-20 mph range

Until this, the winds had been calm all day  These breezes were certainly welcome on this humid evening. But they are also a ghost of what had been a hurricane. 

6:00 pm EDT Sunday

Short term at least, highest flash flood risk is in extreme northeast Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and southeastern New York. 

5:55 pm EDT Sunday

I don't want to minimize things, especially because former tropical systems always surprise with local downpours, but I'm a LITTLE less worried about southern Vermont. Keep your guard up though!  With tropical air like this, nasty, horrible flash flooding is always possible!  At least so far we are far, far, far short of re-living Tropical Storm Irene.

5:16 pm EDT Sunday

As of 5 p.m., Tropical Storm Henri's center was 20 miles southeast of Hartford, Connecticut. Not that it matters anymore. Flood-producing rains continue mostly west of its center. 

5:13 pm EDT Sunday

Some impressive Henri-related rainfall totals already coming in. As of late this afternoon:

36 hours. Some specific rainfall reports: Jamesburg NJ 8.36" Brooklyn Heights NY 7.82" Plainsboro NJ 7.50" Hopewell NJ 6.69" Central Park 6.35" Surf City NJ 5.81" JFK 4.36" Ardmore PA 4.25" Groton CT 2.59"

4:30 pm EDT Sunday

Can I just say how beautifully clean and blue the sky over St. Albans, Vermont is right now in the air directly from the tropics? 

 It's such a lovely, brief reprieve from the hazy, smoky air we've had most of the summer from western forest fires, and a relief from that smoky, hazy air which will surely return and last for the next month or two?  

The beautiful, deep blue is almost, but not quite, worth the extreme humidity we're enduring. 

4:00 pm EDT Sunday

In their late afternoon forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is really hedging their bets, which is very, very wise. 

Here's a quote from the discussion:

"We continue to remain on the northern edge of a sharp north to south precip gradient, which makes for a challenging forecast. It's always extremely challenging to pinpoint exact locations of qpf associated with a slow moving, weakening tropical system and convection. This becomes a nowcasting type of scenario on Monday."

So, some translations:

QPF is expected  precipitation. Convection is showers and thunderstorms. Nowcasting is updating localized forecasts pretty much minute by minute just before an event actually happens. 

In other words, if you're in a flood prone area, it's best to keep up with weather updates through the day Monday.

My takeaway, anyway, from this logic is there is the potential for flash flooding in south central and central Vermont, but we really won't know for sure until we see how things play out during the day on Monday/.

Scenarios range from no biggie to HOLY CRAP! in some localized spots.  Things might be manageable in most places, but could get out of control in a handful of others. Or not.

Far northern Vermont looks rather safe at this point.

However, I've been most worried about far southern Vermont right along, and that continues to be the cross that we bear. 

As of late this afternoon, there was already a flood advisory in far southern Vermont, as some bands of torrential rains have already blown through the southern tip of Vermont.

Weather radar shows a really, really nasty band of torrential rain moving east to west across far southern Vermont after 4 p.m.

'

The question now is, with Henri moving slowly to the northwest, then expected to turn east, will torrential rain linger over Vermont's southernmost two counties well into Monday? Definitely a tricky forecast.

To me, it looks like far southern Vermont is on the edge of the heaviest, scariest downpours. I'm not sure if this will be a so-so flash flood down there or something really awful.  Bennington and Windham  counties are definitely the worry spot of Vermont tonight and tomorrow. Fingers crossed! 

 

3:55 pm EDT Sunday

Interesting updates coming in now from National Weather Service office in South Burlington. Just a very slight chance of rain in northwest Vermont through this event.  Even central Vermont is downgraded to a 50-50 shot with perhaps locally heavy rain in spots.  If this trend continues, this will be a strictly southern Vermont event, which is the way this summer has been.

3:52 p.m. EDT Sunday

Not important except to weather geeks, but interesting happenings in the sky in northwest Vermont now.  Band of clouds associated with Henri coming in from the east. The sky over us had been cluttered by towering cumulus, but those are evaporating in advance of cloud band. Temporarily most clear and hot and humid over St. Albans, Vermont now

3:34 p.m. EDT Sunday

NYC Central Park, NYC in general just can't catch a break from Henri. After 4.45 inches of rain last night, another 1.31 inches so far this afternoon and still raining heavily. BTW, the 1.94 inches in one hour in Central Park last night was the most rain in one hour in NYC history. 

3:28 pm EDT Sunday

Classic New England Tropical Storm conditions, Windsor Locks, CT, just north of Hartford, winds gusting to 41 mph; 1.04 in just the past hour.  No surprise that flash flood warning in effect there. 

3:01 pm. EDT Sunday

While southern New England in the muggy low 70s under heavy Henri rains, tropical heat continues in northern Vermont. At 3 p.m. Burlington at 88 degrees, heat index 93 

2:53 pm EDT Sunday

First tropical shower of the day in northern Vermont seems to have formed northwest of St. Albans, Vermont.  I don't think there will be too many of these today, but with tropical systems you never know.

This one moving very slowly toward the west, opposite of normal showers around Vermont.  It might or might develop into a very local downpour, but no biggie; just interesting, no real threat.  

2:51 pm. EDT Sunday

Nearly stationary rain band that produced up to 5 inches of rain in NYC area and northern New Jersey in association with Henri is still ongoing. Not as intense as last night, but it CANNOT be helping the flood situation in that area.

Rain bands with flash flooding often set up west or northwest of tropical systems. Thank goodness no sign of that so far in Vermont. 

2:30 pm EDT Sunday

As expected, Henri's forward speed slowing dramatically, raising risk of long lasting, flooding rains. Forward speed at 5 a.m this morning over water was 18 mph.  As of 2 p.m. down to half that. 

2:27 pm EDT Sunday.

Photo here  from Twitter shows it's pretty messy in Richmond, Rhode Island 

2:25 p.m: EDT Sunday

Here's a fun little tidbit: One of Tropical Storm Elsa's landfall was at Westerly, Rhode Island at 12:15 p.m on July 9.  Today, Tropical Storm Henri made landfall at Westerly, Rhode Island at 12:15 p.m. What are the chances?

2:20 p.m.

Getting somewhat cloudier in northern Vermont from Henri, which will temper the sun's intensity somewhat. Still wicked humid, and that won't change anytime soon.

1:40 p.m. EDT Sunday

New flash flood warning now around Hartford, CT as the worst of Henri's rains creep northward

1:25 p.m. EDT Sunday

The smoky haze over Vermont is gone and the sky is a 
beautiful deep blue.  That's not fresh Canadian air, though.
This is from the clean, but very humid deep tropics.
It's dangerously hot and humid north of Henri's clouds
in northern Vermont this afternoon.

You might have noticed today the wildfire haze and smoke that has plagued Vermont much of the summer is gone today.  

That's because Tropical Storm Henri has brought air straight from the tropics. The sky over Vermont is basically the same as the sky over, say Barbados.  

Don't let those deep blue skies with those pretty puffy clouds fool you.  That's not the refreshing blue sky normally get in Vermont this time of year right after a refreshing cold front from Canada.

It's still wicked humid and the heat index is dangerous if you're working outdoors today.  

For instance as of 1 p.m. Burlington, Vermont was 87 degrees with a heat index of 93.  NOT pleasant. Stay in air conditioning if you can, and don't overdo it with work our exercise outdoors. It can be dangerous!

1:13 p.m.: NECN reports 100,000 customers without power already 

First update: 12:52 p.m. EDT Sunday:

I'm going to keep a live blog going with occasionally, sometimes very frequent updates of Tropical Storm Henri.  

This will be full of updates, new forecasts, breaking news and other information to keep you abreast of this dangerous storm. 

Since this is a Vermont-based blog, it will focus a bit on the Green Mountain State, but of course there will be lots of information on how things unfold in the rest of the Northeast.

Please comment and ask questions as this live blog progresses. Also, follow me on Twitter at @mattalltradesb 

Tropical Storm Henri, now inland in southern New England, is
losing that tropical "look" in this satellite view early 
Sunday afternoon. Watch out though, inland flooding
from this thing is a big threat through Monday. 

Keep refreshing the URL on this blog to see the latest updates. 

Henri made landfall at around 12:15 p.m. today near Westerly, Rhode Island with top winds of 60 mph. Technically, landfall was really on Block Island, Rhode Island about an hour earlier, since Henri passed right over that chunk of rock south of the New England coastline. 

The winds were a bit weaker at landfall than many forecasts, so that might slightly limit the destruction to trees and power lines in Connecticut and Rhode Island. But still will be a lot of problems in that department. 

I"ve always known the real danger from Henri in the Northeast is the torrential rain and associated inland flooding that is and will occur.  We've only just begun with the flooding. 

Flash flood warnings are already flying in southern Connecticut and those warnings will migrate north and west as the afternoon goes on. 

Here in Vermont, the first heavy rain bands from Henri are crossing east to west across far southern Vermont.  These are not yet enough to set off any real flooding, that will come later.

Fingers crossed, the heaviest rain and the worst flooding might, just MIGHT stay just to the south and west of Vermont.  But everyone in central and southern Vermont should stay alert for flood warnings and flooding anytime between now and Monday evening. 

If you live in a flood prone area, have a plan to get out of Dodge very, very quickly. These will be flash floods, not something that comes on gradually.  The further south you go in Vermont, the greater the flood threat. 

For this afternoon, dry air aloft is helping to hold any showers at bay in central and northern Vermont. It's wicked humid near the surface, as you know, so there could be some brief pop up tropical showers here and there, but coverage will be scattered at best

at's a bit weaker of a landfall than anticipated 

Henri Menaces New England After As Fred's Rains Leave

Tropical Storm Henri off the Southeast coast this morning
Strong upper level winds from the north are hindering
development but those winds are forecast to slacken
off and Henri is expected to become a hurricane
as it heads toward New England over the weekend.

What a strange, tropical time we're having in New England!

The remains of Tropical Storm Fred crossed southern Vermont and meandered toward Maine overnight. 

And now, Tropical Storm Henri is creating an even bigger threat to the region. While all that is going on, the region's weather and weather patterns are typical of Florida, not New England.  

I'll do a quick Fred recap before getting into the real, very important news, which is Henri. 

Fred's remains unleashed almost all of its havoc on southern New England.  A patch of intense rains created serious flash flooding from Hartford to Worcester and on into the Boston area. Four cars were completely submerged beneath an underpass in Worcester and four people had to be rescued.

This heavy rain is not good, soaking the ground before Henri's torrential rains get there. Henri could cause one helluva flood in southern New England. 

This complex of storms rotated, with three confirmed tornado touchdowns in New Jersey, at least one possible touchdown in southern New York, maybe one in Connecticut. Tornado warnings flew in the Boston suburbs too.

Here in Vermont, Fred in my view was perfect. Torrential storms failed to materialize in soggy southern Vermont, so there were no reports of significant issues there, despite flash flood watches that had been in effect. 

Fred's rains stubbornly hung on in far northern Vermont, which actually still needs the precipitation (As of Thursday, before the rains hit, the three Vermont counties closest to the Canadian border were still in moderate drought.  

Burlington received a respectable 0.9 inches of rain from Ex-Fred.  My unofficial rain gauge in St. Alban collected 0.75 inch.  The soaking rains Thursday probably put another dent in the drought, so that's good. But trouble looms south of us. Here's the real news:

HENRI MENACES

What a weird situation Tropical Storm Henri is!  It's lurking off the East Coast, and was about 330 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina with top winds of about 65 mph early this morning. 

That's not at all an odd place for a tropical storm or hurricane to be this time of year, but Henri's future behavior is anything but typical. 

On those rare occasions when a hurricane menaces New England, the storm is on it's typical recurvature process near the end of its life cycle. 

In the Atlantic, troughs of low pressure often pick up a hurricane and make it move north, then northeast up to the North Atlantic to die. Most of the time, this process makes a hurricane miss the East Coast as they move north out into the open waters.

Sometimes, these hurricanes move right up the East Coast, with damaging, sometimes historic, disastrous effects. When they do this, they are moving at a fast forward speed, with a predictable path toward the Northeast.

Henri is different.

There is that trough of low pressure in the East that will pick Henri up and move it northward. That part is pretty normal. But a ridge of high pressure in eastern Canada is building.  That will nudge Henri westward and it will move due north or even northwest toward New England instead of out to sea.

On top of that, that Canadian ridge will slow Henri down near New England, which is opposite of what normally happens.   

Just some of the forecasts tracks for Henri. As you can
see, there's a lot of questions on where it comes
ashore in or near New England Sunday.

This makes forecasting this thing even more of a nightmare and more of a high stakes game than you can imagine for meteorologists. 

After all, dangerous storm surges, high winds and flooding rains are all in play for southern New England and Long Island with this thing. You want to get the forecast right, as lives depend on it. 

Exactly where the worst of it hits is a real question for sure. 

Upper level winds have so far kept Henri from strengthening enough for to become a hurricane. Those upper level winds will relax today as Henri roams over the toasty Gulf Stream, so it will strengthen.

Forecasting the future strength of tropical systems is very tricky.  If it strengthens a lot, it will of course be a more powerful storm when it gets to New England. If Henri sputters, it will still be a problem by the time it gets here, but it will be somewhat of a more manageable problem.

Here's another tricky part: The waters closer to New England are too cold to sustain a hurricane's strength.  So it will probably start to weaken as it approaches the coast.  If its forward motion is slower than normal, which is likely, it will have more time to weaken over water.

BUT, the ocean water south of New England is warmer than normal, which could slow the weakening a bit. And if Henri gets really strong enough, which seems kinda likely, it will be the first hurricane to make landfall in New England since Hurricane Bob in 1991. (Devastating Irene was a tropical storm by the time in reached New England in 2011).

The next question is where will Henri land?

For the record, there is currently a hurricane watch in effect in Long Island, New York and along the southern New England coast through Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts south of Boston including Cape Cod. Of course, Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Block Island are also under that hurricane watch.

Anything at or just east of landfall will get hurricane force winds and worse, a nasty storm surge. Which will be made nastier by astronomically high tides due to a full moon.  Areas just west of Henri will get dangerous, flooding rains. (That's what happened to Vermont with Irene in 2011 - we were just west of its track and got the heaviest rains).

Complicating things further, Henri is forecast to take a sharp right turn beneath that Canadian ridge once the storm gets to New England.  How far inland will Henri be before the sharp right turn hits?  That has implications for what effects we here in northern New England get

VERMONT IMPACTS

The short answer to the question, how will Henri affect Vermont is, "Who knows?" But we can start taking stabs at this answer.

Northern areas at this point don't appear to have much to worry about.  If that right turn happens as expected, the further north in Vermont you go, the more likely you are to be a bystander to Henri.  

There are a few models that bring Henri close enough to affect virtually all of Vermont.  It should also be noted that Henri's "cone of uncertainty" from the National Hurricane Center includes virtually all of Vermont.  Anything within that "cone of uncertainty" includes places where meteorologist think a tropical system might go, given forecast errors.

All that means that the risk from Henri is lower in northern Vermont than places further south, but still real. People in northern Vermont should keep an eye on forecasts, because you never know if a tropical system does something weird and unexpected. 

Henri is weird enough to begin with, after all.  

For southern Vermont, the best case scenario would be for Henri to come ashore in far eastern New England, then immediately take that sharp right turn. If that were to happen, the storm would be no biggie for folks in far southern Vermont. 

Worst case scenario is if Henri came ashore much further west, say in western Long Island, and more worrisomely delayed its sharp right turn a bit, southern Vermont would be in play for some very heavy rain and possibly serious flooding.  Strong winds would be an issue in some spots in the southern tip of Vermont, too.

Then there are a bunch of in between scenarios.  Anyone in southern Vermont should be prepared for some impacts from Henri to be on the safe side.  

Any impacts of Henri in Vermont, if they do occur would be mostly on Sunday and Sunday night.  Expect forecasts to shift with Henri here in Vermont and the Northeast in general as its unpredictable path becomes better understood by meteorologists as the storm approaches.

Here's what to do today regarding Henri:

-- If you're planning a trip to the New England coast this weekend, cancel it. 

-- If you're already vacationing there, leave today. No use messing with a storm like that and you'll just be more people, in addition to the locals that might end up needing help. The fewer people around down there, the better.

--- If you live in southern Vermont, sit tight but listen for forecast updates on Henri.  If you live in a flood prone area, have a plan on what to do if there's a flood or flood warning

-- If you live in central or northern Vermont, carry on with what you were doing, but listen for forecast updates in case Henri ends up having effects on that part of the state after all. 

Before the storm hits, expect typical Florida weather in Vermont today and Saturday. Anyone who steps outside will know right away it's damn tropical out there. Lingering fog and drizzle should lift this morning into partly cloudy skies.  Chances for showers are quite low, but a few might pop up in the humid air. 

On Saturday, there will be a few more afternoon showers and thunderstorms. They will still be hit and miss, but more numerous than today. 

Here's another odd twist. As we know, summer thunderstorms generally go west to east in Vermont. In Florida in the summer, they usually go east to west, coming ashore on the Atlantic side of the peninsula. Tomorrow, in Vermont, any showers and storms that do get going will probably move generally east to west, just like Florida.