Monday, February 20, 2023

Weird U.S. Weather Week Starts, We'll Wait A Few Days For Our Turn In Vermont

The map on the home page of the National Weather Service
is getting colorful, especially west. That means plenty
of weather alerts due to a developing, sprawling storm.
These colors will spread east in the coming days 
with the storm.
 As advertised, a week of weird, extreme weather has started in much of the nation.

I noticed this  morning the National Weather Service hone page map is getting quite colorful. That's always a sign of weather trouble, because the colors depict various storm warnings, watches and advisories. 

It will keep spreading eastward as time goes on, finally hitting us in Vermont Wednesday night through Thursday night. 

Yesterday, we already talked about the record heat expected in the Southeast this week. 

If the East is warm, chances are the West will be cold, and that's definitely the case. Snow levels this week could drop as low as 1,000 feet above sea level in the Los Angeles area. Places like the foothills in the San  Fernando Valley which almost never see snow have a good shot of experiencing some flakes later this week.

Passes over the mountains, like the I-5 Grapevine, could become impassable. Expected high temperatures in Los Angeles later this week are only in the low 50s. That's a good 15 degrees below normal.

I'm still impressed by how much snow is expected over such a huge area of the nation from the storm that is developing. 

Winter storm watches and warnings, with a few embedded blizzard warnings this morning stretched all the way from near the Oregon coast to Wisconsin. Those watches and warnings will almost definitely be extended all the way to northern New England by mid to late week. 

The central and northern Plains and the upper Midwest are used to snowstorms, but this one looks a lot deeper than  your traditional winter fare.

Forecasters are already giving the Minneapolis-St. Paul area a 90 percent chance of seeing at least a foot of snow. More than two feet is not out of the question. 

At least a foot of snow is forecast from Wyoming to Wisconsin as well. There's a chance snow that deep could reach Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, but that is still iffy at the moment. 

South of that broad band of snow, forecasters have increasing fears of a damaging ice storm in a large band extending from northern Illinois, through southern Michigan, southern Ontario, western and central New York and on into southwestern New England,

That ice threat is not cast in stone quite yet. But if it develops, a lot of people are going to lose electricity for some time. 

VERMONT UPDATE

Though things can radically change, it's still steady as she goes for the forecast for the mid to late week storm here.

A small system today, and a slightly larger one tomorrow will spread some spotty rain and snow through the state. We could see enough snow to create slick spots on some of the roads Tuesday. But only a dusting to two inches is in the cards. That might be mixed with rain in the valleys.

The main show still looks like it will run Wednesday night to early Friday morning. The expected snow will wax and wane during that time. Still, an early read on this suggests we could get a foot or more of snow in at least some parts of Vermont. 

We also have the question of how far north sleet and freezing rain reaches. Southern Vermont is still most at risk for this .

The models have trended a bit colder this morning for this storm, which would favor snow. The problem is, the models could easily flip flop back to warmer air aloft. So it's still a big question mark as to what exactly will fall from the sky over Vermont mid to late week. 

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