Tuesday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Still Big Snow/Sleet Questions

The latest update this afternoon from the National 
Weather Service office in South Burlington favors
northern and central Vermont for the most snow with
the upcoming storm, but questions remain about
the forecast, and the possibility of ice. 

 As we get close to 24 hours away from the beginning of our long awaited winter storm, there's still big questions about it. 

Where in Vermont where the heaviest snow set up? How far north will the sleet and freezing rain get? Where there is ice, how much will fall, and how much will any ice cut down on snow accumulations. 

Still, it's pretty clear that we're in for some rough weather, be it snow or ice. As of last report, they winter storm watch is in effect from Wednesday evening into Thursday. 

You could kind of tell there's a volatile weather situation by the type of weather in the Northeast today. A weaker storm sent some gusty rain and snow showers through Vermont late this afternoon. Some severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging winds hit northeastern Pennsylvania and southwestern New York. 

As for the main storm, the thinking continues to suggest the most snow will focus on  northern and central Vermont and the least the further south you get in the state. But there's some questions about that 

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington reports it, some of the models focus the heaviest snow on far northern Vermont, with more than six inches of snow. there.  Less snow would accumulate in this scenario in the southern half of the state. That's because there would be more sleet and freezing rain.

On the bright side, if it does go to ice in southern Vermont, it so far looks like it won't be enough to cause a lot of tree and power line damage. That's a contrast to points west, in western New York, southern Ontario, southern Michigan and parts of Illinois. In those spots, they are forecasting a lot of power outages. 

In another model scenario, the best moisture would be across south central Vermont, and that part of the state would get the most snow. Again, more than six inches. In this version of things, the sleet and freezing rain would be limited to far southern Vermont. Far northern Vermont would get roughly six inches or a little less.

I have no idea which of the two scenarios is more plausible at this point. 

In any case, the first thump of precipitation would come Wednesday night. It'll start in earnest in southwestern Vermont at around 7 or 8 p.m. Wednesday, and spread through the rest of the state between 8 and 10 p.m. 

The heaviest snow will probably come down roughly between midnight and 8 a.m. Thursday. So Thursday morning will be the worst of it if you have to drive anywhere. 

Sleet and freezing rain could start before dawn in far southern Vermont. As noted we don't know how far north it will get. However, whatever comes out of the sky during Thursday late morning and afternoon would probably be much lighter than that initial thump. 

The landscape around Vermont will be radically different by Thursday. In the valleys as of today, it's strangely snow free. It looks like late March, not late February. Our world will return to late February by Thursday.

Relatively light snow will probably continue into Thursday night and at least the first part of Friday behind the storm. As noted this morning, it will probably get pretty cold early Friday through Saturday. 

A lot of us will wake up to subzero weather Saturday morning.

After that, the weather pattern will remain active, but of course it's too soon to say what types of storms we'll get, or whether they'll amount to much.