Today's Vermont Snow: Some Last Minute Forecast Changes

Our back deck in St. Albans, Vermont starting to '
fill in with snow as another day of light snowfall
should deepen what's already on the ground a little more

Now that our latest snowfall has started to arrive in Vermont this Tuesday morning, I see a few tweaks to the forecast since yesterday.  

Most of us will see snow of varying intensity all day, but it won't be super heavy. At times, it might even stop snowing for short intervals. But this last day of February is closing out the month on a snowy note. 

CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 

The biggest change in the forecast is in the Champlain Valley, were somewhat more snow might fall than previous forecasts indicated. It will still fall well short of a blockbuster, with maybe two to as much as four inches of new snow. That's different than the 0.5 to 2 inches of new snow that was in the forecast yesterday.

 The storm, as expected, has split in two. The original storm, which spun off more tornadoes in Illinois and possibly in Indiana and Ohio yesterday, is weakening as it slowly heads from near Buffalo, New York this morning to near Montreal by evening. 

This is a little closer to Vermont than first thought. Which means there's a bit of added lift to the atmosphere, That will ensure kind of a snowy day for most of Vermont, now including the Champlain Valley. 

It won't snow super hard, but enough to make the roads tricky at times. Temperatures this afternoon might be a degree or two cooler than original forecasts. Which means it probably won't get warm enough for the snow to mix with rain in most places. Still, with temperatures in the warmer valleys getting up to between 32 an 34 degrees this afternoon, the powdery stuff we've been seeing early this morning will turn wetter and heavier.  

You might end up being surprised when you shovel "only" two or three inches of snow that will feel pretty heavy.  

Vermont AOT traffic cam caught a state snow plow
at work this morning along Interstate 89 in Georgia.
Main highways aren't too bad this morning, local
roads are a little worse. 

SOUTHERN VERMONT

The second piece of the storm, as expected, formed near the Mid-Atlantic coast and is racing due east out to sea.

Since that storm is a tiny bit further south than forecast and is in a big hurry to get out of Dodge, expected snowfall amounts have been cut back just a bit in far southern Vermont.

 It looks like that area, at least in higher elevations, has already gotten about 2 to 4 inches of new snow by 7 a.m. They'll get as much as another three to five inches during the day today.

Traffic cameras in Bennington appear to show low elevations in southwestern Vermont have only gotten an inch or so of snow so far, and they'll probably be lucky to receive another two.

East facing slopes and summits of the southern Green Mountains should still do well with this storm. Places like Ludlow and Mount Holly will probably see a solid six inches or so of new snow by the time this wraps up this evening.

REST OF VERMONT

Between the dying storm heading toward Montreal and a wet flow of air from the Atlantic Ocean streaming into Vermont on southeast winds, most places should see a solid three to seven inch storm total out of this one. 

Some high elevations in the central and northern Greens could come out with eight or nine inches new out of this. The Green Mountains are blocking some of the moisture from reaching western Vermont, which is why places west of the Greens won't see quite as much. 

All this should wind down statewide during the first half of tonight. 

MORE STORMS?

A weak little system should give us a bit of rain or snow or a mix Wednesday night into Thursday, but I still don't see it as being a huge deal.

A bigger storm still seems to be in the cards for later Friday into Saturday. It's still a tossup as to whether it will be a big snowstorm, a close miss, or a mix. Better details on this storm shoul be available in a day or two.