North/South Split In Spring Weather Is HUGE In Vermont This Year

Got another small section of the gardens cleaned up
yesterday before it rained. Although we'll have
frequent chances of showers over the next week,
especially in northern Vermont, we also should
have dry, balmy periods to enjoy the outdoors, too.

 Yesterday was another one of those extreme days in which northern Vermont wasn't all that warm while southern parts of the state basked in near-summer warmth. We've had several of those kinds of days already this spring. 

At 4 p.m. Friday, for example, it was a balmy 76 degrees in Bennington, but a relatively chilly 53 in Highgate and 54 degrees in Newport, both near the Canadian border. In the middle of the state, it was in the decent 60s. 

It's almost always warmer in southern Vermont valleys than in the far reaches of the Northeast Kingdom, of course. But in the spring, that temperature range can get pretty extreme. 

This has already happened a few times in Vermont this spring. For instance, at 1 p.m. on March 11, its was simultaneously 36 degrees in Highgate and 63 degrees in Bennington. On March 31, afternoon temperatures were in the 30s in Burlington and flirting with 70 in Bennington. It's almost as if two seasons are an easy drive apart. 

Some of this has to do with the nature of spring cold fronts. 

 Usually, cold fronts come in from the west. But in the spring, we are more likely to have some occasional "back door" cold front as well. Those "back door" fronts come in from the north or even northeast. They tend to move slowly, and often stall out. The stalls for some reason often happen somewhere near the Canadian border,

In some years, spring comes a lot sooner and a lot more completely in places like Bennington and Brattleboro than in up by the Canadian border in little towns like Alburgh, Richford and Derby Line. 

Spring is hitting the whole state, of course. So don't worry. Even if you can see Canada from your house, or if you're actually in Canada, spring is developing. Even if it's a little more grudgingly than further south. 

Next week,  it looks like we might  have more of those extreme temperatures ranges in Vermont and the rest of New England as a front drapes itself somewhere near the Canadian border. The details are hard to pin down this far in advance, but we'll try to give you an idea in the details below:

TODAY/TOMORROW

The front that kept extreme northern Vermont fairly chilly swept through the rest of the state in the late afternoon and evening Friday, dropping temperatures rapidly. Rutland, for instance, went from 70 degrees to 56 degrees within an hour last evening. 

With the front gone, temperatures will be relatively even across the state today. With brisk northerly winds, highs will only make it into the 40s to maybe a couple low 50s south. 

After a frosty start to the day, Sunday should feature increasing clouds with highs in the 50s. Sunday might be the last day for awhile in which the entire state is pretty much having the same kind of weather 

THE (NEARLY) STALLED FRONT

A slug of rain should come through Sunday night and part of Monday. As has been the case lately, the north will get more rain than the south. Current guesses give places near the Canadian border about two thirds of an inch of rain. That'll gradually taper down as you head south, so Bennington and Windham counties will only get a tenth of an inch of rain.

The front we're talking about will then spend much of next week wavering near the Canadian border. Little ripples of low pressure will run roughly west to east along it, giving us an ever-present chance of showers. But it won't rain all the time.  

If the front dips to the south of the Canadian border, northern Vermont would get chilly, at least at times. If it stays north, all of us will see almost summery weather. That means the air would feel kind of humid, and temperatures during the day would get into the 70s. Maybe near 80 if the sun breaks through enough. Nights would stay in the 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday are the most likely days in which the weather will be summery. If this balmy, humid weather actually happens, you'll see spring advance incredibly fast. You'd better get your lawn mower serviced for the season now if not sooner. 

Since the front will stay hung up near the Canadian border, rain is most likely up there during the week. which leads me to another concern. The U.S. Drought Monitor says southern Vermont is still abnormally dry.  To recover from the lingering effects of last year's drought, now is the time you want a lot of rain. 

Southern Vermont might miss out. Forecasts can change but as of this morning, at least 1.25 inches of rain could fall north of Route 2 over the next week. But less than a quarter inch is forecast in the far south of the state.

We all like sunshine and warm temperatures, but you know what they say about those April showers. We need 'em!

 

Another Week Of Vermont Winter, But Insistent Signs Of Spring?

We've got more cold weather here in Vermont coming
for the first couple days of March. But longer range forecast
call for warm temperatures nationwide, except Alaska.
Even in Vermont, I've seen optimistic forecasts
of genuine thaws starting around March 4 or 5.

It was winter cold again this morning, with temperatures in most of Vermont bottoming out at around 0. Morrisville got as cold as 8 below. The banana belt Champlain Valley ended in the single digits above zero. 

Winter will hang tough for several more days. Extended forecasts are getting more insistent that hints of spring are coming soon. I'm still a little skeptical. 

More on that in a minute but we've got the next few days to take care of first 

TODAY: 

It'll be rather cloudy in north, but we'll get glimpse of sun, too. Southern areas should be sunnier. Winds have turned to the south, so we'll get into the 30s most places today. You might see a few light snow showers in the north as a weak warm front passes by.  No biggie, with no accumulation to speak of.

TONIGHT 

A strong storm way up by James Bay, Canada and robust high pressure to the east will create a windy night for us, especially in the Champlain Valley. Gust could reach 40 mph in a few spots. The south winds will keep temperatures up overnight, especially west of the Green Mountains. 

By dawn, it'll be in the mid and upper 30s west amid those strong south winds west of the Green Mountains an 20s in the calmer air east of the mountains

SATURDAY

Remember those forecasts of a one-day hint of spring on Saturday?  It's looking a bit more like a half day north. The Champlain Valley will probably warm up to around 40 by noon or early afternoon before the cold front sweeps in to drop temperatures for the rest of the day. 

 It'll take longer for the front to reach southern Vermont, so those areas should a pleasant day in the 40s. It could even hit 50 in some valleys in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

The cold front will be starved for moisture, so expect just sprinkles ahead of it and flurries behind. 

The National Weather Service is offering a warning to anyone who wants to venture out into Lake Champlain over the next few days. Strong, shifting winds and Saturday's mini-thaw might break up ice on the broad lake, so you might want to stick to protected bays and such if you do go out on the ice this weekend. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

Into the icebox we go.  We'll start Sunday in the teens with maybe a few single numbers north A weak disturbance looks like it wants to come through with a little snow during the first half of the day. 

Current forecasts call for less than an inch north and an inch or two south. Stay tuned, as if the path of this little disturbance changes, snowfall amounts could change. But this will by no stretch of the imagination be a blockbuster. 

Temperature should stay in the teens to around 20 for highs both Sunday and Monday, which is way, way below normal. Lows Monday morning should be in the minus 5 to minus 15 range for the most part. 

BEYOND MONDAY

We know that temperatures will become more seasonable Tuesday and Wednesday. We're watching a potential small storm that could deposit a few inches of snow or perhaps a mix, maybe,Tuesday night and early Wednesday. 

Temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s later in the week. But cold high pressure will be lurking in Quebec, so it's possible those forecasts are too optimistic. 

Other long range forecasts keep insisting that after next Wednesday, it should be warmer than normal at least into mid-March.  Give our endless parade of cold snaps in recent months, I'm still in "I'll believe it when I see it mode."

Vermont Wednesday Update: Winter Weather Advisory Dropped South, Storm Still Due Friday

Where'd the snow go?  The expected snow in southern
Vermont this evening. has gone pretty much gone poof
as an expected stripe of snow is weaker and further
 south this evening. 

Just a quick update for the evening: The snow that was going to hit southern Vermont with a few inches of snow is moving even further south than expected.

The winter weather advisory for Bennington  and Windham counties has been dropped. Far southern Vermont could still get a dusting to as much as an inch, but don't even count on that. 

This is a big switch since some forecasts two or three days ago had snow all the way to the Canadian border.  

Even after this flip flop in the forecast, there's still a slight chance southwest Vermont could get clipped with a little extra snow, since there's a very sharp line between nothing to the north and snowing at a good clip south.

If that line moves just 10 or 15 miles north, Bennington is back in play for snow. But it really doesn't look like that will be the case.    

Tomorrow will be a pleasant enough day with highs reaching the 30s in many locations. Forecasts still call for a 3 to 7 inch thump of snow Friday through Saturday. We'll see if there's any last minute revisions to that forecast, too.k 

I'll have a full update on Friday's potential snow in tomorrow morning's post. 

The Pace Of Climate Change Is Accelerating. Will El Nino Make Things Worse?

The pace of climate change on Earth has quickened in
recent years. Will the faster pace get even faster, or
will things revert back to a more manageable pace.
That will have a lot of repercussions as how
we deal with a hotter planet.

 Now that it looks more likely an El Nino will set in later this year, scientists are debating how hot it will get. 

The three most recent years have been by far the world's hottest on record. El Ninos tend to make the world even hotter.

That's not good news. 

Since we're starting from such an already overheated position, will a new El Nino put us on a  dangerous new trajectory in which the world will heat up at a new, faster pace. 

Or was it a hiccup, and we'll revert to a somewhat more relaxed but still scary increase in global heat?

Both options are bad, but the rapid heat up version is obviously most frightening, as we'd quickly enter a world where heat waves blow far past anything previously recorded and storms would make Hurricane Melissa look like a refreshing tropical shower. 

In the past decade or two, the past of global heating has accelerated. Which makes people wonder if we are at the start of an era when things really spiral out of control.

WHERE WE ARE

A Washington Post analysis found that although the Earth has been warming for a century or more, the fastest rate of warming has been over the past 30 years. 

Per WaPo

"For about 40 years -- from 1970 to 2010 - global warming proceeded at a fairly steady rate. As humans continued to pump massive amounts of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, the world warmed about 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade or around 0.34 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Then, that rate began to shift. The warming rate ticked up a notch. Temperatures over the past decade increased by close to 0.27 degrees  C per decade - about a 42 percent increase." 

In matters of climate, a decade is a really short period. So this new intense rate of warming might be a big deal. Or it could be a blip caused by factors other than fossil fuel emissions.

Ominously, a number of climate scientists are leaning toward the idea that this is a real acceleration that will last, especially since it's been so robust.

 "There is a greater acceptance now that there is a detectable acceleration of warming," said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.  

Many people in the eastern half of the United States can be forgiven if they think climate change is sputtering, since it's been so cold there. 

However overall, January was the world's fifth hottest on record. (I'll have more details on January in a separate post). 

While the eastern U.S. froze, many other parts or the world were ablaze with unseasonable heat. Much of the western third of the United States has had a record warm winter. Nuuk, Greenland ran an incredible 20 degrees warmer than normal during January. And are plenty of other examples. '

In other words, the recent cold weather was just a temporary fluke. 

EL NINO URGENCY

This idea that climate change might be accelerating isn't all that new. The buzz began in earnest when 2024 became the hottest year on record. This, after 2023 absolutely obliterated 2016 as the previous worldwide record for hot year.

But as we went through 2025, a La Nina pattern that usually cools the Earth barely moved the needle downward. Last year was the third warmest on record, barely behind the previous two years. Now that La Nina is fading, we're starting at that high base line for when El Nino roasts the planet toward more records,.

The cooler La Nina was fading fast this month. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center last week said we'd go into neutral conditions soon (neither La Nina or El Nino). El Nino would probable wait until autumn to arrive. 

 Since El Nino is starting later this year, climatologists are beginning to make 2026 seems unlikely to become the hottest year.  

The UK Met Office is predicting 2026 will end up as second warmest, behind 2024. Which means it will be slightly warmer than the hot years of 2023 and 2025.

Hausfather thinks 2026 will be among the top four hottest on record.

 The year to watch is 2027 when, if trends continue, the unprecedented global heat could turn especially intolerable.

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

So why didn't the La Nina we just experienced over the past year or so fail to cool the world down noticeably?

One explanation for the added warming is pollution controls. We've seen news on this before, too. Asian nations, and the shipping industry have cut back on sulfur pollution. Those environmental laws have removed particles called sulfate aerosols from the atmosphere. 

That allows the sun to shine stronger and brighter, heating the world even more.  

However, as WaPo explains, the missing sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere doesn't  explain all the recent warming.  Neither does natural variability.

Scientists, said they've noticed low-lying cloud cover has decreased. Those clouds reflect sunlight. Fewer clouds mean more heat. 

One question is why are the clouds disappearing?  Clouds tend to form around particles. A lack of sulfate in the atmosphere might mean fewer particles for clouds to develop. This could create a feedback loop. Fewer clouds mean more heating. That additional heat makes still fewer clouds form, and it all feeds on itself from there.  

The Washington Post explains the question

"If most of the current record warmth is due to changing amounts of aerosol pollution, the acceleration would stop once aerosol pollutants reach zero - and the planet would return to its previous, slower rate.

But if it's due to a cloud feedback loop, the acceleration is likely to continue - and bring with it worsening heat waves, storms and droughts. 'If there is a strengthening cloud feedback - a positive cloud feedback associated with warming - that's going to persist,' Hausfather said."

The  bottom line is, we're playing with fire. The faster climate change moves, the harder it will be to adapt to it, and the more damage and suffering we'll encounter. 

This should be a sign we ought to double down on reducing fossil fuel emissions, and quickly. Humankind has barely been able to manage the changing climate so far. If things go a lot faster than they are now, god help us.  

Weekend Vermont Storm Looking Even Colder, Snow Chances Increase

Slate colored clouds looking west from St. Albans, Vermont 
this morning portended some rain showers moving in
by this afternoon. 

 The weather forecast for Vermont today looks pretty easy to figure out. For later in the weekend, not so much. 

The trends for the Saturday night and Sunday storm are continuing to look colder. It's now looking like at least northern parts of the state might get more snow than rain out of it. 

More on that in a minute. First we have to get through today. 

TODAY/TOMORROW

Roads across Vermont outside of the Champlain Valley were slick in many areas. Moist air and some of the remnants of melting snow froze overnight, leaving black ice on the roadways. That problem will ease later this morning as temperatures rise above freezing.

The first of two storms we're dealing with will go by to our west today. That ensures everybody in Vermont will see rain. Not much, though. Rainfall this afternoon and evening should amount to 0.1 to 0.2 inches for most of us. 

Winds will be gusty in places today, especially in the Champlain Valley and across the pond in northern New York.

Snow lovers have one bit of good news today. Record warmth is embracing the southeastern United States today, but it will only be sort of warm here. True, daytime highs in the 40s today will melt some of the snow. Or all of it in places where the snow cover is quite thin in southern Vermont valleys. 

However, the very warmest air won't be able to make it this far north before it gets cut off at the pass by a cold front this evening. The cold front is no powerhouse. By morning, temperatures will be close to 30 degrees, which is a mild morning by January standards

Saturday will be the stereotypical calm before the storm. Some sun might break out in the morning for a bit, but it will cloud over in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 30s.

THE STORM

First of all, some background. It's a pretty dynamic system. For evidence, I present you with the four reported out of season tornadoes that touched down in Oklahoma yesterday. They weren't huge, but still.

Today. more severe storms and maybe some tornadoes, are in the forecast for the Deep South.  Meteorologist are also expecting some heavy rain and flooding in the Gulf Coast states. 

The good news for us in Vermont is the deepest moisture, the most chaotic part of the atmosphere  and the heaviest precipitation will zoom up from the South, through the Mid-Atlantic States and then offshore via the southern New England coast. Meaning, the torrential stuff will miss us. 

Still, though, we will get our share of precipitation, even if it's not torrential. We're still expecting a double-barrel storm. Once center will go up through the Great Lakes, the other will take shape near southern New England. 

The southern New England one keeps looking a little stronger with each run of the computer models, so that would tend to keep the cold air locked in better. 

Of course, temperatures throughout most of the atmosphere during this event will be touch and go between snow and a mix. So don't take the following prediction as gospel quite yet.

But as it stands now, it looks like places north of Route 2 in Vermont might see mostly snow, with just a little mix of ice or rain in there. Total snow accumulation through Sunday morning up there would be in the two to four inch range. 

Between Route 2 and 4, there would be more of a mix, so total snow accumulation might be in the one or two inch range, with maybe a slight glaze of ice.

South of Route 4, it will be mostly rain with maybe some ice and a few snowflakes. 

Again, the forecasts are still in flux, so expect some changes. 

SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND

The remnants of the part of the storm that ended up in the Great Lakes is forecast to come through Sunday night. That would spread another two or three inches of snow across northern Vermont, with maybe a little more in the mountains. That Sunday night burst of snow could leave one to three inches of snow in central Vermont, with less than that across the south. 

The first half of the upcoming week still looks like it will be on the mild side, with daytime highs Tuesday and Wednesday probably getting a little above freezing.

But, a long spell of cold to bitter cold weather looks like it will start during the second half of next week. Chances are rising that the Arctic air could last through the end of January.    

Chilly, Boring Weather For A Few More Days Of Vermont "Winter Doldrums"

Yet another day of Henry The Weather Dog trying
to stay warm. On New Year's Day, he took full
advantage of a patch of sun coming through the
window and landing on his favorite chair. 

 We've settled into the core of our cold weather pattern in Vermont, as we continue on with our shivering and complaining. 

Well, most of us are doing that. I understand that there are some folks out there who live for zero degree cold and gusty, wind-chilled January days in the great outdoors.  

I've just gotten soft in my old age, is all. 

The New Year's Eve weather drama mostly passed us by to our south. Although some northern Vermont highlands did manage hare in the snowy fun. 

Smugglers' Notch reported six inches. Morgan in the Northeast Kingdom clocked in with 5.5 inches. Westfield and Woodbury both reported five new inches of powder

Dramatic snow squalls swept through parts of the Mid-Atlantic States and blasted through central and southern New England bright and early on the first day of 2026.

'Those squalls and periods of heavy snow clipped southern Vermont, especially the upper elevations.  

As previously expected, the far southern Green Mountains had the best snowfall New Year's Eve and New Year's Day. Wilmington reported eight inches of snow, Londonderry and Landgrove both reported six inches of new snow. 

Otherwise, the Champlain Valley missed out with most places there getting a half inch or less Most of the rest of the Green Mountain State saw the predicted one to three inches of snow. 

Skies cleared last night, allowing most places in Vermont to go below zero. It's been a chilly welcome to 2026. 

FORECAST

We now look forward to a few days of cold, boring weather. It's the winter doldrums. Happens a few times almost every year in late December and in January and February. 

The doldrums feature constant cold weather. Not extreme cold. Not icy enough to garner news headlines but enough to let you know spring is still a distant dream. 

This kind of weather pattern isn't stormy, either. What snow is on the ground just sits there and sort of ages. But it does get a little freshened up from time to time by passing snow flurries.  

Generally speaking, we'll have high temperatures in the teens daily through Monday. Overnight lows will be in the single digits either side of zero. The coldest temperatures at this point looks to be Sunday night into Monday morning. 

Current forecasts have everybody in Vermont below zero with probably several places in the teens below zero. Again, nothing extreme for a Green Mountain State January, but still noticeable. 

A WARMUP?

For those of you who lack enthusiasm for frigid weather, we do have some good news. That Greenland block/Arctic oscillation weather pattern that tends to keep cold air locked in around here looks like it's going to break down. Temporarily, perhaps, but who knows?

At least this upcoming shift originating up in Greenland will give us a break from the cold. It still remains to be seen how warm it will get toward the middle and end of next week, but we're pretty sure it will get warmer. 

Current projections have temperatures during this mild spell getting a little above freezing most days. We're still not looking at any big storms when that milder air hits, but a few modest things will come through. Since temperatures will be marginal, we'll probably end up dealing with mixed precipitation again. Though just not on the scale we saw last Monday. 

We don't yet have specifics on the timing of these little storms during the warm spell or exactly when they'll come through. 

As for how long the "warm" air  lasts, early guesses are it'll start on Tuesday and last until about next Sunday, January 11.  It also looks like the cold air that eventually comes in after that mild spell won't be brutal. Just kind of typical for midwinter.

So yes, kind of a boring weather start to the year, but boring weather is much better than scary weather. 

 

El Nino Might Be Looming. That Might Turn A Climate Changed Hot World Torrid

Schematic showing how an El Nino develops.
Many climate watchers think a new El 
Nino will develop next year, possibly
causing more record high temperatures
for the world, 

 A (mostly) natural global weather pattern in the Pacific Ocean might propel global temperature to new heights next year. 

It's all about the familiar El Nino and La Nina cycle. 

In general, La Nina brings cool water to the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America.  In turn, global temperatures fall slightly. 

The opposite, El Nino, warms up those Pacific Ocean waters off of Chile and the whole world gets a little warmer. 

Which wouldn't be that big a deal without climate change.  

But climate change led to the El Nino year of 2023 becoming the hottest on record. Until 2024, when that record was broken. 

This year has brought mostly either La Nina or neutral conditions. And the good news is 2025 is turning to be cooler than last year. But barely. There's a chance it could tie 2023 as second warmest, but will probably end up at Number 3. Even if it ends up Number 3, it will be much warmer than what would become the #4 spot, 2016. 

What worries scientists, then, is 2025 barely cooled off from the hot times of the two previous years, despite a La Nina for at least part of the year. 

Now, signs are stirring that might point to a new warm El Nino in 2026. If that happens, we could get another record warm year in 2026 or 2027.  We would face even more intense deadly heatwaves, stronger floods than we've already been seeing, and worse droughts. 

The Washington Post describes the initial signs of a possible El Nino this way: 

 "Typically, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific Ocean, forming a predictable pattern called trade winds. These trade winds cause some of the planet's warmest ocean water to pile up in the western Pacific near Papua, New Guinea and the Philippines. But a few times a year on average, winds weaken and reverse direction, blowing from west to east at about 15 mph for a few weeks - forming a westerly wind burst."

This affects an area of Pacific Ocean water south of Guam that's the hottest in the world. The westerly wind burst pushes some that water across the Pacific toward Chile. It takes two or three months for this process to happen, so the warmer water would be near the South American west coast in early 2026.

However, as WaPo explains, one westerly wind burst does  not an El Nino make. You need a few of them to get a decent El Nino going. Which means we might not get an El Nino and if we do, we don't know how strong it will be.

Stronger El Ninos have a greater effect on global temperatures than lame ones.  

For now, NOAA predicts weak La Nina conditions we had in November to continue well into this winter, but transition to neutral conditions by late winter. Than means the eastern Pacific ocean waters won't be particularly warm or cool. 

The NOAA forecast doesn't get its what might happen after early spring. 

However, the private climate consulting company Climate Impact Company is forecasting El Nino conditions to begin taking hold in the spring. The forecast is based on various computer climate models. 

The Climate Impact Company forecasts notes that the northeastern Pacific ocean has warmed up a lot recently, and that is often a precursor to an El Nino.

The World Meteorological Organization predicts that if an El Nino develops, it won't be until after April 2026. 

November was the world's third warmest on record, even with a weak La Nina. You'd think November would have been a little cooler, since La Nina has been going on for several months now. 

So you can imagine how the global heat might be turned on big time if we get an El Nino, especially if it turns out to be jumbo sized. 

he weird heat waves and big storms that keep popping up in the news seem a little terrifying now. Wait until things really heat up.  

Latest Vermont Snowfall Ends, Except In Northern Green Mountains

Heavy snow falling along Route 242 in Westfield
not far From Jay Peak around 8 a.m. today. More than
a foot of snow will fall in that area today, but 
most areas in Vermont will see very little 
snow today. But it will be wintry. 

The snow is pretty deep for this time of year in Vermont, thanks to a remarkably early winter. 

Both the cold and the snow are pretty impressive. Right now, there's about 10 inches of snow on the ground here in St. Albans.  

So far, some of the highest snow totals I've found from yesterday are 8.7 inches in a higher elevation in Waterbury, 7.5 inches in Maidstone, and 6.5 inches in Ludlow and Albany (that's Vermont, not New York).

It actually got warm last night, as Burlington reached 36 degrees around and just after midnight. That's the first time we've had a normal high temperature since November 27. It's been colder than average since then. 

TODAY

That 36 will be the high temperature for today. We've got a wintry day in store, once again. For the rest of your Thursday, the temperature will slowly fall through the 20s. Northwest winds will increase, with gusts for many of us going up over 30 mph. Which means the wind chill will get worse, too. 

Some areas, especially the southern Champlain Valley might see some breaks of sun today, but it won't be an impressively sunny day for most of us. The lower Connecticut Valley in southeast Vermont will probably be rather sunny, so head down there if your Seasonal Affective Disorder is really acting up. 

It won't be a nice day, if you'll allow me to be Captain Obvious once again. 

For most of us, we're pretty much done with the snow.  There will be some flurries and snow showers around, and some blowing snow. A few places in northern and central Vermont could get an inch or so of snow.  Which means roads conditions will be fair to middlin,' as they say. 

Not much snow in Vermont today, except a patch of 6 to as
much as 18 inches in the northern Green Mountains

The exception is the northern Green Mountains. The upslope snows will keep going. From about Sugarbush north to Stowe and Smugglers' Notch, we're probably talking four to as much as eight inches. 

But the real story is up by Jay Peak, once again. They always get a lot of snow, but this year is insane. And today will remain part of that insanity. 

The upslope snow near the Canadian border will be so persistent that the National Weather Service in South Burlington is saying that between shortly after midnight this morning (a few hours ago as of this writing) and Friday morning, Jay Peak could see 18 inches of new snow. 

That's on top of the eight inches or so they received Wednesday. True, the snow coming down on Jay Peak today is super fluffy and will compact down a lot. But still!  

A winter weather advisory is up for the northern Green Mountains, as you might imagine. Right around Jay Peak, you'll see some near blizzard conditions with all that snow and wind. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We've got a few more days of wintery weather to look forward to.  Tomorrow will be a little warmer as south winds temporarily take hold. Some of the warmer towns will get to near 30 degrees. 

The six to 10 day outlook from NOAA covering
the days between December 16 and 20 has warmer
air spreading across the U.S. We in Vermont
will stay near the edge of the warm air
so we'll have probably flip-flopping 
conditions between cold and mild. 

Another well-advertised shot of cold air is due to come in Sunday, with another spate of snow showers, especially in the mountains.  

Highs in the 20s on Sunday will drop to the teens on Monday. It looks like clouds and wind might prevent temperatures from going way below zero like they did on Tuesday morning. 

Then - here's something interesting - we have a huge shift in the weather pattern coming up. 

Instead of intrusions of frigid air from Canada, a strong west-to-east jet stream will flood most of the Lower 48 with warmer air starting toward the middle and end of next week. 

It looks like we'll be near the northern fringe of that balmy air, with frigid air lurking not far to our north in Canada. 

That arrangement pattern probably means we'll flip flop pretty quickly and often between fairly mild days and chilly ones. The rapid fire parade of small to mid-sized storms will probably continue, but we'll have to deal with mixed precipitation, ice and even rain from time to time, in addition to modest snowfalls. 

It's way too early to tease out exactly how these storms will affect us starting toward the end of next week. But expect surprises, and occasional breaks from the midwinter cold we've had to deal with.  

Drought Update Still Grim, But Wednesday Rain Over-Performed In Parts Of Vermont, Rain Turns Light

Drought conditions improved just slightly in 
northwestern Vermont, but stayed the same
elsewhere despite Monday's rain
Moderate drought is light orange, severe
drought is dark orange and extreme
drought is depicted in red. 

I'm not surprised, but in the past week, the drought in Vermont has barely improved, despite some heavy rain earlier this week. 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report comes out every Thursday, and it's hot off the presses as I write this. 

As expected, rain fell Wednesday in Vermont, but that wasn't considered in the drought report. It used data through Tuesday. If Wednesday's rain had any effect, we'll see it in next week's report.  

This morning's new Drought Monitor shows northwestern Vermont improving somewhat, but little change elsewhere in the Green Mountain State. That makes sense, given that some of the heaviest rain on Monday fell on the central and northern Champlain Valley. 

Western Chittenden and Franklin counties improved from severe drought and are now considered to be in moderate drought. That's good, I guess.

Eastern parts of those counties, along with western Lamoille County "improved" from extreme drought to a mere severe drought. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, there was no change in drought conditions from the previous week. 

Bottom line: Things are still really, really bad.  It's good that things improved a little in parts of Vermont, but this morning's report confirms that we really, really need a bunch of super wet storms to get out of this mess. 

I guess we can count Vermont as lucky. For the Northeast region as a whole, drought conditions worsened and expanded a bit since last week. 

In New Hampshire, the drought was exactly as bad this week as it was the prior week. In Maine, the drought intensified, especially up in the northern part of that state. In New York, drought more or less held steady. 

WEDNESDAY RAIN

Storm clouds looming over lingering fall foliage 
Wednesday in St. Albans, Vermont. Heavy 
downpours once again blessed northwest
Vermont, but rain was lighter elsewhere in the state,

Wednesday's rain probably helped with the drought, at least in northwest Vermont, which as noted has already improved a little. Especially in the Champlain Valley, the rain really over-performed, dumping much more precipitation than expected. 

That was due to a band of heavy showers, followed by another band of thunderstorms that moved northward up the Champlain Valley. 

These storms had some oomph to them. Pea sized hail accompanied some of them. In Jericho and a few other places, the hail was heavy, piling up on decks and lawns. 

More importantly, the rainfall was notably heavy. 

Here in St. Albans, 1.1 inches of rain poured down on Wednesday. We've had four inches of rain within three days, a bit more than what normally falls in the entire month of October. I took Henry the Weather Dog to the dog park after the rain yesterday, and he was very unimpressed and annoyed by how swampy the park was. 

Us humans, on the other hand, rejoiced in the dent all this rain put in the drought. 

Burlington had 0.79 inches of rain Wednesday, far more than the third of an inch or so that had been forecast. Total rainfall this month in Burlington is 4.13 inches, actually a bit above normal for the entire month of October.

That's great to see.

Elsewhere in Vermont, rainfall Wednesday wasn't nearly as heavy. But many places got a little bit more than forecast. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Rutland, for instance, each received right around 0.4 inches. 

Not huge, but not bad. 

OUTLOOK

The rain machine is largely shutting off now, but things won't dry out quickly like they did right after what ever rains we did manage to see in August, September and early October. 

Today will be the "wettest" day of the forecast period. Showers will be pretty frequent, especially north and mountains and especially this afternoon. Unlike yesterday, there's no atmospheric energy to promote downpours. Instead, we expect basically irksome, light, chilly showers. 

Rainfall totals today will be around a tenth of an inch or less, except maybe a little more in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Over the next several days, we can expect typical late October/early November weather. That means partly to mostly cloudy skies in general, cool temperatures and a frequent chance of inconsequential sprinkles. 

Those will be mostly in the mountains. Higher up, those sprinkles will take the form of snowflakes. 

A parade of super dry, huge high pressure systems that have been stalling near us since August to intensity the drought. That's happening again, but this time, it's setting up a little further north in Quebec than previous dry highs, so at least we'll get a few clouds and sprinkles as a result. 

We still desperately need a series of very wet storms. In the near future, nothing's coming. The next shot we have at a decent rain would possibly be around Halloween. 

Us Vermonters generally dread a gloomy, soggy November, but this year, I'm all in. 

Drought Might Dim Vermont Fall Foliage A Little

The August drought  followed by recent rains have caused
 this oddity at a St. Albans, Vermont dog park.
This small tree thinks it's May with new spring growth. 

Now that it's September and the kiddos are back act school, we're really thinking autumn in Vermont. 

You know, apples, and (ugh) pumpkin spice and fall foliage. Which begs the questions: Will the drought blunt our famous fall colors somewhat this year?  

The answer is: Probably. 

Before you spiral into depression over the prospect, it'll still be pretty this fall. Gorgeous like it always is. But, as if is often the case, there will be flaws in the orange, gold and yellow tapestry of our landscape. 

In a few spots, the color is already lost.

Especially on exposed south facing hillsides with thin, rocky soil, the flash drought that developed in August has already wilted leaves or turned them brown or yellow and those leaves are falling off quickly. Luckily, that's not the majority of trees in Vermont, but there's definitely parts of some hillsides that are already brown. Or at least a dull orange or yellow because of the dry weather. 

Many other trees, while still green have lost some leaves. They'll do that to conserve water during droughts. Also, I've seen leaf scorch. That's caused by the drought, too, along with the extreme heat of mid-August that left the edges of leaves on some trees brown, while the center of the leaves are still green. 

Climate change messes up our foliage season. The flash drought that developed over the past month is a classic example.  That climate change also has alter the autumn schedule. 

Peak fall colors arrive a little later in the season than they used to decades ago. It's possible - but not definite - that this year's drought could actually reverse that later trend and make the peak colors a little earlier than they've been in recent years. That'll be especially true if we have a very cool September. We'll see!

OTHER FOLIAGE PROBLEMS

Springtime and the very start of summer was quite wet, and that encouraged some blights to develop on a few trees. The blight causes leaves on some maples and other plants turn brown or black and fall off now. 

The blight has really affected lilac bushes. You see many of them - including one in front of my house -  have brown leaves that have largely already fallen from the bushes. 

Lilacs aren't known for their colorful fall foliage, so this blight won't affect the autumn scenery much.  But those lilacs are looking pretty uncharacteristically ugly right now.  You'll want to rake up and discard the fallen lilac leaves. And if you get a nice day this winter go in and thin your lilac bushes to improve air circulation.

The good news is that next spring the lilacs should all still leaf out and bloom beautifully like they always do.

The drought might mess with our Vermont autumn
colors a little, but didn't cause this problem. The 
emerald ash borers killed these trees near 
Swanton, Vermont. 

Another odd thing I've seen here in northwestern Vermont over the past couple of days is new spring leaves on some bushes.  The drought made leaves drop from some bushes and trees. We've had some welcome rains recently, and now new leaves are appearing, as it it's May, not September. 

Though this isn't great for the trees and bushes, because it's making them use more reserves, most should survive and leaf out again next spring 

However, one very sad, permanent loss to our fall colors is the ongoing demise of our ash trees.  Ash trees have tended to add some beautiful golds and purples to the autumn color palette, which really have helped to make Vermont's foliage season that much more spectacular.

The emerald ash borer has killed or is killing most of the ash trees in large swaths of the state. In parts of the Champlain Valley, stands of ash trees now look like they do in mid-winter. They're completely dead.

The ash borer hasn't affected all of Vermont yet, so our ash trees in many locations will continue to make their contributions to our lucrative foliage season. But, I'm afraid ash trees will soon go the way of the stately elms we had in the mid-20th century and the huge chestnut trees we had around and before 1900. The end of our valuable ash trees is a terrible loss.

All the rest of our forests are getting ready to go dormant for the season, so renewed rains probably won't help much. That's especially true in southeast Vermont, which largely missed out on beneficial rains this past Friday and Saturday. The dry week we're having ahead of those rains is probably worsening the drought conditions in southern parts of the state. 

It's also beginning to look like a series of weather fronts due Thursday night through Saturday might focus the rain once again in the northwestern half of the state. But since that event is a few days away, that scenario could change. 

Despite the fact it's already September, the weather over the next few weeks might renew some of autumn's brilliance. I've heard quite a few observers note if we have a lot of chilly nights and bright sunny days (with adequate rainfall mixed in) during September, leaves will tend to be brighter and more colorful at the end of the month and in October. 

Fall foliage in Vermont is different every year because the weather is different every year. The best places also change every year. A hillside that was amazing last October might look "meh" this year. Or, a vista that was just OK last year will blow your socks off this foliage season. 

But some things never change. Vermont's forest will put on a big show, it'll look fantastic.  We'll be overrun by tourists. Social media influencers will run amok in and near tourist towns. We'll all get to shuffle through drifts of fallen leaves in crisp autumn air. 

As those beautiful leaves swirl in the chilly autumn winds, us Vermonters will glance up at stunning hillsides in our brave little state, and then turn back to the task of buttoning down everything for another long winter.   

 

Friday Was The Ultimate Perfect Vermont Summer Day. Now, Big Changes Are Afoot

What a day Friday was in Vermont! Deep blue skies,
hills glowing green in the sun. It was the pick of
the summer. But changes are afoot, and we
have some pre-autumn type weather heading
our way after a very warm Saturday. 

 Yes, we desperate need the rain, but you have to admit, Friday's weather was perfect. 

Maybe the pick of the summer.  

The temperature/humidity combo was spot on. Most of us got into the low 80s during the afternoon, so it was a good beach day. It was also superb for any other activity.   The humidity was rock bottom low, so exerting yourself with a hike or a spin on the bike didn't kill you. 

For once, there was no wildlife smoke in the air, so the sky was that deep, deep blue that soothes the soul.  It's rare to have a cloudless sky like this in August. Usually, there might be at least a few puffy clouds out there. 

Likewise, the Green Mountains glowed a deep green for a change, instead of being half or fully obscured by haze and smoke. f your hike took to the mountain summits you could see practically forever. 

If you were on the lake, it was also stupendous, though maybe winds were a bit light for the sailboats.

In other words, Friday was the reason we live in Vermont. 

TODAY

We've left the perfection zone, but if you enjoy summer, you've at least got today to enjoy. Beyond that, we'll see. 

Last night was pretty comfortable for sleeping, as we all started the day with temperatures in the 50s. You'll  notice it heating up pretty quickly this morning. All of us will get well into the 80s, with a few warmer valleys hitting 90 one more time.  There should be plenty of sun today, though a few clouds might come in during the afternoon. 

SUNDAY

This will be our big transition day into what I might call pre-fall, or as I explained the other day, Fair Weather, the kind of not really warm, not really chilly days we have in late August when county fairs are around. 

The cold front will be a little  more like  the kind you see in the autumn, not summer. Summertime cold front come through in pieces, little boundaries with progressively, and slightly cooler and less humid air and a gradual wind shift over many hours.  

Autumn and winter cold fronts come through in one fell swoop. Although Sunday's front won't be "clean" like that - it will still be a bit diffuse - the  push of colder air will be abrupt and noticeable. 

Temperatures will probably actually fall during Sunday afternoon, depending on the timing of the cold front. By evening, you might be reaching for a hoodie or sweater. 

I'm still really unimpressed with the amount of rain that will accompany the cold front. Current forecasts have us getting maybe a tenth of an inch, with a few lucky spots maybe seeing a quarter inch. 

By Monday morning, temperatures  should be down in the 40s, with highs only reaching about 70 by afternoon. 

The cool weather continues most of the week, but it should start to warm up temporarily toward the end of the week. 

If you are reaching for hopes of rain, there might be something coming through Tuesday night and Wednesday, but don't count on it. 

A few forecast models dump an inch of rain on us, which would be great, but those models are in the minority.  Most of them give us just a little rain, and some of them nothing at all.  Stay tuned on that, but for now, I'm leaning toward mostly dry weather and sadly, a worsening drought. 

Since I'm an eternal pessimist, don't count on me being right, though. 

Stepping Down Unevenly Into Cooler Vermont/New England Weather Pattern. Drought Continues

A hazy sun sets over St. Albans, Vermont Wednesday.
It was the last time until next spring the sun set at or 
later than 8 p.m. True to the season, cooler 
weather is due by next week. 

 If you don't like hot weather, the good news is you probably won't see anything like the heat we've seen in the past few days until next summer.  

It's getting toward the back half of August. Things will start to cool. We'll probably have more hot weather, but nothing like the mid and even upper 90s we saw this week. 

WEDNESDAY EXPLAINED

The beginning of the end of the heat came yesterday with the arrival of showers and thunderstorms. 

I got a little smug yesterday morning with my surprise and delight over some early morning showers here in St. Albans, Vermont but the joke was on me.  

That was pretty much it for me with the rain. St. Albans received 0.23 inches, with nothing coming down after noon. 

The showers in far northwest Vermont kept the skies cloudy and cooler much of the day and stabilized the atmosphere. It only got to 87 degrees in Burlington and 81 in Highgate. So no new showers developed during the day much north of Route 2.

Elsewhere in Vermont, Wednesday was another hot one. St. Johnsbury set a record high for the date with 95 degrees. Springfield made it to 94 degrees. Montpelier got to 90, missing the record high for the date by just one degree. 

Unlike in far northern Vermont, the heat allowed widespread showers and storms to develop, though most places had unimpressive amounts of rain. Burlington had about a third of an inch, which ended an unprecedented dry spell for August. It was the first time on record the first 12 days of the month were rain free. 

Elsewhere yesterday,  Montpelier managed to see a quarter inch of rain, and Springfield a half inch. St. Johnsbury could only muster 0.15 inches. 

Wednesday also proved you can get a flood alert in a drought. 

An area around Londonderry, Bellows Falls, Windham and some other communities in southeast Vermont were socked by storms that dumped up to around three inches of rain in a short period of time. The National Weather Service issued a flood advisory for that area for a time late Wednesday afternoon.

DROUGHT REMAINS

Wednesday's rain was not nearly enough to quench our thirst, and mostly dry weather looms.  But at least there's a little precipitation in the forecast.

Today is starting out muggy.  One weak cold front came through, another boundary temporarily stalled in northern New York. Neither front was enough to push the humidity that built up yesterday out.

A third cold front today will do the job. This last front is weak, and will produce at most isolated showers. But it will flush the humidity out. You'll notice the change in the air this afternoon. The decrease in humidity will be nice, but it will come with some wildfire smoke again. Can't escape that! 

The drier air means you'll sleep better tonight.  Dry air allows temperatures at night to cool rapidly, especially if skies are clear. That'll be the case, so expect lows to drop into the comfortable 50s.

Friday will also be a nice summer day with sunshine and highs hitting the low 80s. After a fairly comfortable Friday night, a brief squirt of hot, dry air will work in Saturday. Some of us could get to 90 again. The humidity will stay low, so the drying ground and fire danger will continue. 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor is released every Thursday. I'll file a report in this blog thingy after it comes out later today. It will be interesting to see how much worse things got in Vermont after what I'm calling Vermont's Death Valley Week. That hot, arid air was something!

"FAIR WEATHER" COMING

Next week, right on schedule we'll enter what I call "Fair Weather." Not "fair" as in fair skies, though we'll probably have plenty of that. But in Vermont, "Fair Weather" is the not quite summer, not quite fall type weather you at least used to see in late August and the opening days of September. 

That's when most of the county and local fairs come through the Green Mountain State.  Traditionally, the weather during these events is cooler than what you endure in high summer, but warmer than the crisp air you'd expect once we really get into fall.

Due to climate change, "Fair Weather" has not been happening as much in late August in the past decade or two.  Instead, it's been staying hot. So this year might be a nice throwback to tradition. 

A cold front Sunday will throw some showers our way, but it won't rain all day.  Next week will feature highs mostly in the low 70s north to mid and upper 70s Champlain Valley and south. Lows will get into the upper 40s, low 50s, that kind of neighborhood.

It's hard to tease out exactly what each day next week will be like this far in advance.  Weak disturbances could generate a little rain on one or two days, but the dry northwest flow will probably prevent any of the real soakers we need.

But I think we're now past the truly hot part of summer. 

One More Hot Day, But The Big Vermont (Temporary) Cool Down Is Just Starting

Our outdoor living summer living space in St. Albans,
Vermont. It looks like the weather will be conducive
to enjoying it most of the time for the next week. 

It was another warm, stuffy night in Vermont, and it will be another hot one today. 

But the heat is starting to wane. It will be slow at first. Today, you'll barely notice the improvement. But the cool down will pick up the pace within the next day or two.  

But that doesn't mean summer is over. More warm weather is on the way.  

It got to 91 degrees in Burlington Monday, the 12th time it has gotten to 90 this year. Springfield had its 13th such reading of the year.  

It's also highly likely July, 2025 will be one of Burlington's top 10 hottest Julys. That would make it three Julys in a row that are in the top ten hottest. 

Since June was tied for seventh warmest, we might well have one of our hottest summers on record. If August is warm.  These aren't your grandparents' Vermont summers, that's for sure. 

August will start off cool, but not necessarily stay that way. More on that in a bit.

TODAY

Even though temperatures before dawn in some areas like the Champlain Valley were in the 70s, it won't necessarily be another 90 degree day. The air flow has shifted into the northwest, starting the change in the weather, 

A weak disturbance in that northwest flow has brought air that's a touch cooler than yesterday. Maybe. And if it is cooler, it'll just be by a degree or two.  I give Burlington less than a 50/50 shot of making it to 90 degrees again today. But who knows?  

That allegedly cooler air today won't really make it into southern Vermont, so Springfield has a good shot at seeing their 14th day of the year to reach 90 degrees.  

I suppose there could be an isolated shower or rumble of thunder this afternoon, but don't count on it. Despite the relative warmth and humidity the ingredients just aren't there.

WEDNESDAY

The "real" cold front should come through tomorrow to drop our temperatures. But it will come through in pieces. That means the front probably won't be able to create much of an organized line of big storms to mark the change.

Instead there will probably be a broken batch of scattered showers and storms  coming through. They will be hit and miss.  Some places won't see any rain at all. A small minority of us will see a nice but fairly brief torrential downpour. The chances of a severe storm are not zero, but don't count on any barn busters. If there is something rambunctious, it's most likely south of Route 4. 

Most of us will just have light rains coming from the cold front. Aside from the few places bullseyed by the few real storms we'll see, count on a quarter inch or less of rain. As noted, some rain gauges will remain dry. 

 It'll still be fairly warm and muggy. In fact, some southern Vermont towns like Springfield could hit 90 one last time. But some of us, especially in the north, will start to feel a change in the air later in the day.

THURSDAY

It now looks like the flip to cooler and drier air has some complications. Wednesday's cold front looks like it will get hung up in southern New England temporarily, and a ripple of a storm will probably form along it.

This thing looks like it will dump a huge boatload of rain on southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States, possibly causing some flooding.

Some of the models are throwing the rain back northward for a time on Thursday. Far southern Vermont could end up with a drenching rain on Thursday. Even though it's only a couple days away, we still don't know for sure whether that will happen, so forecasters will have to keep an eye on it. 

It's a little dry in southern Vermont, so if a good soaking does manage to materialize, that would be a good thing, actually. 

We also don't know yet how far north the rain will get. There's still a good chance it won't rain at all in the north. But it might not be quite as sunny up there as we originally thought.

We do know everyone in Vermont will find the air much cooler Thursday. And much less humid, at least  in the north.

BEYOND THURSDAY

The weather does look delightful Friday through Sunday, at least mostly.

The air will be super dry and comfortable through that period. It should be sunny, too. Delightful! Except for the risk of wildfire smoke. Since the air is coming from Canada, and central Canada is still burning, we get smoke. 

It's a little early to know how much smoke we'll see, but this pleasant spell of weather might not feature nice blue skies, but some haze.

I keep saying it's going to be cool toward Friday and Saturday but not really. The nights will have a bit o a chill, getting into the 40s in many places and low 50s in the Champlain Valley. But daytimes will reach the comfortable 70s.

Temperatures should get quite warm again starting Sunday and continuing much of next week. I don't know if we'll have more 90 degree weather. That remains to be seen. But summer ain't over in Vermont!

 

Monday Morning Weather: Dangerous Storms Northern Plain: Here In Vermont, Kinda Hot, Smoky As Late Week Dry Spell Looms

A destructive derecho is possible in the northern Plains
today especially in the orange and red areas on map,

While some areas of the nation continue to experience some odd, extreme and often dangerous weather, we in Vermont have settled into a sometimes foggy, sometimes humid, sometimes very warm and changeable weather pattern. 

More on Vermont in a minute, but we should get into some of the big weather headlines from yesterday. 

TAMPA HEAT

Tampa, Florida made local history by reaching 100 degrees, the first time that's happened since they started keeping track there in around 1890.

It might seem surprising that Tampa had never been 100 degrees. After all, July in Florida is hot.

It sure is. But in Tampa, humid sea breezes usually come in off the Gulf of Mexico. Those breezes collide with even hotter air just inland to produce pretty much daily thunderstorms. The sea breeze and the storms have always prevented Tampa from reaching 100 degrees until now,

Those sea breeze thunderstorms did eventually develop in Tampa  yesterday, but the overall air mass was so hot, tthey were able to reach 100 degrees. We'll never know for sure, but perhaps climate change was ale to push Tampa to 100 degrees. 

NORTHERN PLAINS EXTREME STORMS

We've been talking about the so-called heat dome in the middle of the nation, causing the sweltering, sometimes near record temperatures across the Midwest and East.

Severe storms often ride along the northern edge of these heat domes, and that's happening big time.

Several batches of storms have already battered the Upper Midwest in recent days. A somewhat out of season large tornado touched down Sunday west of Watertown, South Dakota. Winds in Watertown itself gusted to 71 mph. 

The same batch of storms helped create another tornado in western Minnesota, along with a string of wind damage and flash flooding reports across much of Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and northern Iowa,

Today looks even worse. Forecasters expect a dangerous derecho to develop somewhere in South Dakota. A derecho is a long-lasting band of intense, fast-moving thunderstorms with destructive winds. These things can cover many hundred of miles. 

This one could affect much of South Dakota, a good chunk of Minnesota and northern Iowa. Derechos are hard to predict, but conditions are favorable for one of these today. A worst-case scenario - which could conceivably happen - will be like the August 10, 2020 Iowa derecho.

In that case, a derecho roared across Iowa, causing straight line winds of up to 140 mph in Cedar Rapids, the highest winds ever recorded in a derecho. It was also the most destruction thunderstorm in U.S. history, causing $11 billion in damage.

Which is why we're hoping today's event falls well short of that, 

VERMONT RAIN

My St. Albans, Vermont gardens have that ragged,
crowded late summer look now, but at least there's
still some color

Luckily, nothing like a derecho is expected here in Vermont. We're safe. 

Many of us in Vermont managed to get a decent rainfall Sunday.  Parts of southern Vermont - as expected - got drenched nicely. Bennington reported a total of 1.39 inches. 

Unexpectedly, as we talked about yesterday, far northern Vermont saw a band of heavy rain during much of the morning. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont collected an impressive 1.35 inches of rain. 

St. Johnsbury reported 1.12 inches of rain.

Central Vermont missed out somewhat. Rainfall amounted to 0.4 inches in Burlington, 0,47 inches in Montpelier, and 0.67 inches in Rutland, where an isolated late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm added to the total, 

The rain was welcome, as much of the state except the Northeast Kingdom and parts of northwest Vermont have been a little on the dry side this month, 

So far, unlike most of the state, my area around St. Albans has had a wet month. I've collected right around 6.5 inches of rain so far this month.

Very little rain is expected this week, And it's looking like starting Thursday, , we could go as much as a week without any rain. That would be the longest dry spell we've had since last September.

THE FORECAST

Dense fog enveloped much of Vermont early this morning. I'm sure that slowed the morning commute in some areas. That will have burned off most places by the time you read this. 

Today

A northwest air flow that will eventually bring us our cooler, less humid air has already started. It'll just take awhile for the truly refreshing, very dry air to reach us. 

It was super muggy this morning, but the northwest breeze should lower our humidity a bit this afternoon. It'll still be on the sweaty side, but not the worst it could be.

Still, temperatures should get well into the 80s, and maybe even flirt with 90 degrees again in a few spots, And that damn wildfire smoke will be back. The smoke probably won't be as bad as it was Saturday, but it will still diminish air quality some.

Little disturbances in the air flow will keep very low chances of showers and storms going, but I emphasize very low. There might be something up by the Canadian border tonight, but don't count on it.

Tuesday

Tuesday looks hot and somewhat humid, with just a very low chance of storms. At least 90 percent of us shouldn't see anything at all, unless something in the forecast radically changes overnight.  A few towns should get close to 90 degrees again, the rest of us will be in the 80s. 

On the bright side, it looks like the smoke might diminish somewhat tomorrow. 

Wednesday

The most meaningful cold front in the series should come through sometimes Wednesday. It's too early to get into the details, but so far, I'm not impressed by the amount of rain or thunderstorms it looks like it will produce.

I suppose a few places might get lucky and see a good downpour. And, depending on the timing of the front, there might be a strong storm or two. But this won't be the severe weather event of the year. Nothing like South Dakota's anticipated derecho,

Dry Week?

That Wednesday cold front appears as if it will usher in that long dry spell. The high pressure coming down from Canada looks like it will be massive in size and slow moving.   It might not rain for seven or more consecutive days, though long range forecasts are always iffy, as I keep reminding everyone.

It will be cool at first, with that low humidity. Since the air will be coming from Canada, that cool air might end up being - sigh - smoky again. 

The cool weather looks like it won't last as long as many meteorologists had been thinking earlier. It now looks like only next Thursday, Friday and maybe Saturday will be cooler than average, and it won't be all that much chillier than you'd expect in early August.

Warmer summer weather will start to come back, probably next Sunday and stick around for awhile. The humidity will probably also return, at least to an extent.  

Believe It Or Not, Vermont Is Drying Out, With Not All That Much Rain In The Forecast

A little rain fell this morning here in St. Albans, Vermont
but it wasn't much. It's actually getting a little dry, and
not much rain is in the forecast. 

 We've been talking about persistent rains, and occasional flood threats really since early spring here in Vermont. 

But while we keep seeing bouts of showers and thunderstorms, a funny thing happened on the way to a wet summer. It's becoming not so soggy. 

We're miles away from any drought worries at the moment. But as we've gotten into the second half of July, the rains have gotten more sporadic, more scattered, more inconsistent 

That trend is continuing and may even actually intensify. The cold front coming through today is turning into a bit of a nothingburger.  What was looking like a potential soaking on Sunday is looking much less so.

And a major change in the weather pattern coming up will eventually prevent the type of warmth and humidity needed to bring us heavy rain.

The summer of floods continues elsewhere in the United States. Ruidoso, New Mexico was hit again yesterday, with more debris flows. Another house was washed away there, and people had to be rescued. A swath of central and western Missouri was under flash flood warnings this morning.  Kansas and Illinois will probably be added to the list of flood zones later today.

But here in Vermont, sure, we're seeing a little rain. But it's not impressive.

The past few days has brought breezy weather with low humidity, followed by more humid weather yesterday. But the humidity came with 90 degree heat, lots of sun and persistent breezes that acted to dry things out.  

It's dry enough in parts of Vermont so that we actually have a fairly large forest fire by Vermont standards burning in Fair Haven.   Officials aren't sure when the fire will be out. So far it has burned through about 11 acres. That part of the state has been missed by thunderstorms more often than elsewhere. 

Meanwhile, Burlington on Thursday had its seventh 90 degree day of the month, and 11th this year.  Only 15 Julys in the past 125 years or so have had as many or more such days in July. 

TODAY

Now, this morning, a cold front is pressing into Vermont, and it's not an impressive one. The timing of it, and some conditions ahead of it, mean there won't be all that much rain. The threat of severe storms has greatly diminished, too.

It did start raining on my fairly dusty gardens here in St. Albans, Vermont shortly before 7 a.m., but it certainly has not been raining hard. 

The lame cold front, and its showers will continue moving southeastward through Vermont during the morning and early afternoon.  As it heads south,  the sun will  help increase instability enough in southern Vermont to power up some thunderstorms along this. 

A few lucky devils might see a decent downpour out of these. There might be an isolated one or two storms in southern Vermont that could get a little rambunctious with strong gusty winds, but it definitely won't be anything widespread.

 WEEKEND

It's still looking like a nice one Saturday, with warm temperatures and moderate humidity. For Sunday, the forecasts for a weather disturbance have been flip-flopping. At first, the indication was it would go south of Vermont. Then it would hit us square as a stronger version with a bunch of rain. Now, we're back to a weak thing passing to our south with little rain for the Green Mountain State.  

BEYOND THE WEEKEND

As we close out July and begin August, much
of the nation still looks wetter than normal
(green shading) with continued risks of
local fooding. Meanwhile the Great Lakes
and interior Northeast, including 
Vermont look to be on the dry side. 

It looks like we might have one more hot day on Monday before things start to change midweek. We are  quite confident a cool spell is coming in. 

But long range models are unreliable, and they're really, especially all over the place right now. 

We don't know whether this cooler pattern will be a brief interruption to summer or something that will last a good portion of August

My guess - it's only an educated guess - is we get maybe three or four days of cool weather starting next Wednesday or Thursday and then we get into sort of average August weather.  

The long range forecast doesn't really have prospects for any soaking rains,.

So for now, we'll take the little bits we get, and continue to water the gardens as needed.