Monday Morning Weather: Dangerous Storms Northern Plain: Here In Vermont, Kinda Hot, Smoky As Late Week Dry Spell Looms

A destructive derecho is possible in the northern Plains
today especially in the orange and red areas on map,

While some areas of the nation continue to experience some odd, extreme and often dangerous weather, we in Vermont have settled into a sometimes foggy, sometimes humid, sometimes very warm and changeable weather pattern. 

More on Vermont in a minute, but we should get into some of the big weather headlines from yesterday. 

TAMPA HEAT

Tampa, Florida made local history by reaching 100 degrees, the first time that's happened since they started keeping track there in around 1890.

It might seem surprising that Tampa had never been 100 degrees. After all, July in Florida is hot.

It sure is. But in Tampa, humid sea breezes usually come in off the Gulf of Mexico. Those breezes collide with even hotter air just inland to produce pretty much daily thunderstorms. The sea breeze and the storms have always prevented Tampa from reaching 100 degrees until now,

Those sea breeze thunderstorms did eventually develop in Tampa  yesterday, but the overall air mass was so hot, tthey were able to reach 100 degrees. We'll never know for sure, but perhaps climate change was ale to push Tampa to 100 degrees. 

NORTHERN PLAINS EXTREME STORMS

We've been talking about the so-called heat dome in the middle of the nation, causing the sweltering, sometimes near record temperatures across the Midwest and East.

Severe storms often ride along the northern edge of these heat domes, and that's happening big time.

Several batches of storms have already battered the Upper Midwest in recent days. A somewhat out of season large tornado touched down Sunday west of Watertown, South Dakota. Winds in Watertown itself gusted to 71 mph. 

The same batch of storms helped create another tornado in western Minnesota, along with a string of wind damage and flash flooding reports across much of Minnesota, eastern South Dakota and northern Iowa,

Today looks even worse. Forecasters expect a dangerous derecho to develop somewhere in South Dakota. A derecho is a long-lasting band of intense, fast-moving thunderstorms with destructive winds. These things can cover many hundred of miles. 

This one could affect much of South Dakota, a good chunk of Minnesota and northern Iowa. Derechos are hard to predict, but conditions are favorable for one of these today. A worst-case scenario - which could conceivably happen - will be like the August 10, 2020 Iowa derecho.

In that case, a derecho roared across Iowa, causing straight line winds of up to 140 mph in Cedar Rapids, the highest winds ever recorded in a derecho. It was also the most destruction thunderstorm in U.S. history, causing $11 billion in damage.

Which is why we're hoping today's event falls well short of that, 

VERMONT RAIN

My St. Albans, Vermont gardens have that ragged,
crowded late summer look now, but at least there's
still some color

Luckily, nothing like a derecho is expected here in Vermont. We're safe. 

Many of us in Vermont managed to get a decent rainfall Sunday.  Parts of southern Vermont - as expected - got drenched nicely. Bennington reported a total of 1.39 inches. 

Unexpectedly, as we talked about yesterday, far northern Vermont saw a band of heavy rain during much of the morning. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, Vermont collected an impressive 1.35 inches of rain. 

St. Johnsbury reported 1.12 inches of rain.

Central Vermont missed out somewhat. Rainfall amounted to 0.4 inches in Burlington, 0,47 inches in Montpelier, and 0.67 inches in Rutland, where an isolated late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm added to the total, 

The rain was welcome, as much of the state except the Northeast Kingdom and parts of northwest Vermont have been a little on the dry side this month, 

So far, unlike most of the state, my area around St. Albans has had a wet month. I've collected right around 6.5 inches of rain so far this month.

Very little rain is expected this week, And it's looking like starting Thursday, , we could go as much as a week without any rain. That would be the longest dry spell we've had since last September.

THE FORECAST

Dense fog enveloped much of Vermont early this morning. I'm sure that slowed the morning commute in some areas. That will have burned off most places by the time you read this. 

Today

A northwest air flow that will eventually bring us our cooler, less humid air has already started. It'll just take awhile for the truly refreshing, very dry air to reach us. 

It was super muggy this morning, but the northwest breeze should lower our humidity a bit this afternoon. It'll still be on the sweaty side, but not the worst it could be.

Still, temperatures should get well into the 80s, and maybe even flirt with 90 degrees again in a few spots, And that damn wildfire smoke will be back. The smoke probably won't be as bad as it was Saturday, but it will still diminish air quality some.

Little disturbances in the air flow will keep very low chances of showers and storms going, but I emphasize very low. There might be something up by the Canadian border tonight, but don't count on it.

Tuesday

Tuesday looks hot and somewhat humid, with just a very low chance of storms. At least 90 percent of us shouldn't see anything at all, unless something in the forecast radically changes overnight.  A few towns should get close to 90 degrees again, the rest of us will be in the 80s. 

On the bright side, it looks like the smoke might diminish somewhat tomorrow. 

Wednesday

The most meaningful cold front in the series should come through sometimes Wednesday. It's too early to get into the details, but so far, I'm not impressed by the amount of rain or thunderstorms it looks like it will produce.

I suppose a few places might get lucky and see a good downpour. And, depending on the timing of the front, there might be a strong storm or two. But this won't be the severe weather event of the year. Nothing like South Dakota's anticipated derecho,

Dry Week?

That Wednesday cold front appears as if it will usher in that long dry spell. The high pressure coming down from Canada looks like it will be massive in size and slow moving.   It might not rain for seven or more consecutive days, though long range forecasts are always iffy, as I keep reminding everyone.

It will be cool at first, with that low humidity. Since the air will be coming from Canada, that cool air might end up being - sigh - smoky again. 

The cool weather looks like it won't last as long as many meteorologists had been thinking earlier. It now looks like only next Thursday, Friday and maybe Saturday will be cooler than average, and it won't be all that much chillier than you'd expect in early August.

Warmer summer weather will start to come back, probably next Sunday and stick around for awhile. The humidity will probably also return, at least to an extent.  

Midwest Tornado Outbreak To Get Even Worse Today; Here In Vermont, More Rain, Slight Flood, Severe Weather Threat

Another day of severe weather and tornadoes today in
large portions of the U.S. Most at risk for strong tornadoes
is in the orange and especially red areas of the map. 

 As expected, several tornadoes touched down Thursday, mostly in Minnesota and Wisconsin with Round 1 of a severe weather outbreak.  That outbreak will move south and get even worse today and tonight. 

Meanwhile, here in Vermont, the weather won't get especially dangerous, but big changes are on the way and there are still some minor threats from possible flooding and strong storms.

I'll get into Vermont details in a moment, but first a national update

STORM OUTBREAK

At least 14 tornadoes touched down in the Upper Midwest Thursday and that number might rise as damage is assessed. 

Even some places that didn't have a tornado got nailed by severe weather. Storm winds gusted to 79 mph in Gardner, Illinois, 74 mph in Bonfield, Illinois and 73 mph in Thief River Falls, up in northern Minnesota.

Even places that didn't have severe weather were hit be strong winds. The strong low pressure system that spawned the tornadoes created wind gusts as high as 64 mph in Pierre, South Dakota. 

A big Beyonce concert at Chicago's Soldier Field was delayed for hours after storms swept the area with strong winds and torrential rains. 

So far, there's been no reports of deaths or serious injuries from the Upper Midwest storms. 

However, today looks even worse than Thursday. 

An area centered on the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers is set up for some bad stuff today. That includes Kentucky, southeast Missouri, and southern Illinois and Indiana. This includes the cities of St. Louis, Cincinnati, Lexington and Louisville, Kentucky and Evansville, Indiana. 

Those areas are under a moderate risk of tornadoes with is a level 4 out of 5 alert level. Forecasters are worried the area later today and tonight will be raked by numerous tornadoes and otherwise damaging thunderstorms.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center wrote,  "Several strong tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible." 

High end, long-tracked tornadoes are relatively rare, and are responsible for the most destruction and potential highest death toll of any twister.

Beyond that, daily risks of severe storms and tornadoes in various parts of the U.S, will continue Saturday through Tuesday. Monday looks especially dangerous in and around Oklahoma, 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The warm weather this week has really gotten my large
lilac bushes to bloom around my St. Albans, Vermont
house.  Smells great out there in the breeze.

The weather here in Vermont over the next few days will be interesting, but not violent. 

The Green Mountain State has one more day of summer today before an extended chilly spell hits. Burlington had its fourth day in a row in the 80s Thursday and today will probably make it five. 

Today will be a mixed bag, with sunshine, and scattered showers and storms. Some places will get nailed by heavy, slow moving rainers while other areas will barely be touched. 

We had a foretaste of what is to come Thursday. While most of us had a partly sunny, warm  summer day,  slow-moving thunderstorms that dropped heavy rain , mostly in sections of southern Vermont.

In far southern Vermont, in the mountains east of Bennington around Searsburg and Woodford State Park, a flood advisory was briefly issued Thursday evening as storms there dumped at least two inches of rain in a short period of time.

A special weather statement was also issued in Rutland County for slow moving storms that had the potential to cause minor flooding.

Today, the storms will be more widespread than they were yesterday.  Any storms that do form will move slowly like they did yesterday, leaving open the opportunity for isolated instances of flash flooding. NOAA' Weather Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk for flash flooding today, a level one out of four alert levels. 

Hard to say in advance who gets bullseyed by storms and who avoids the worst of it.  It's a roll of the dice

Saturday

Yes, Saturday will definitely be the eighth one in a row with rain. It won't rain all day, but there will be frequent enough showers and possibly thunderstorms. 

The wild card is Saturday afternoon.  If it stays cloudy all day the round of showers coming in during the afternoon won't have much instability to work with, so we'd just get downpours, and no strong thunderstorms. 

However, we get an interval of sunshine in the late morning and early afternoon, that would prime the pump for a few scattered strong to severe storms.  If it happens it won't be anything widespread but it's something to keep in mind. 

NOAA has Vermont in both a low level risk of severe storms and a marginal risk of flash flooding for Saturday.  Whatever happens will be fairly isolated, and not another full scale disaster like we've seen in recent years.

Beyond Saturday

Hope you liked summer this week because it's over. We're in for a long period of chilly, unsettle weather that should last at least a week, maybe more.  

The rain should continue Saturday night and into Sunday.  Rainfall totals between now and Sunday evening should be more than inch across most of Vermont. Places that really get hit hard by repeated downpours could get two or more inches of rain.

Starting Monday and continuing through next week, it's hard to tease out exactly when and how much rain will fall. But we know temperatures will be below normal, it'll be more cloudy than sunny and daily temperatures should stay mostly in the 50s and low 60s. 

I'm not sure when summer weather will return, but it'll be a long wait.    

 

More Tornadoes? Record December For Twisters And More Possible Today, And Later This Month

Tornado damage in Minnesota after the unprecedented
severe weather outbreak on December 15. Minnesota
had never seen tornadoes in December until this
year, contributing to a record tornado count in'
the United States this month. 

 December is usually a pretty slow month for tornadoes in the United States, but anyone who's glanced at the news knows there's surely been a lot of them this month. 

There have been at minimum 130 tornadoes so far this month in the United States, which is the most on record for December since at least 1950.

Today, more tornadoes are possible in Florida.

A storm coming off the Gulf of Mexico today will cross roughly west to east through the Florida peninsula. There's a good deal of spin and instability in the atmosphere with this thing. That has prompted NOAA's Storm Prediction Center to say there's a chance of tornadoes today in central and southern Florida. 

The biggest threat from the severe thunderstorms expected today in Florida will contain damaging straight line winds. But expected supercells could spin up a tornado or two.  A tornado watch was already in effect before dawn in southwestern Florida. 

Florida does get tornadoes from time to time, most often during the winter. 

As a side note, the storm causing the rough weather in Florida will rocket northward well off the East Coast, and cause a snowstorm with some ice Wednesday night and Thursday morning in Maine and the maritime provinces of Canada. The storm will have little or no effects here in Vermont).

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service in LaCrosse, Wisconsin says they were able to document 18 tornadoes in the weird Upper Midwest tornado outbreak on Dec. 15. Four of them were in Wisconsin, five of them were in Iowa and nine were found in Minnesota.

Note that until this month, the total number of tornadoes ever recorded in Minnesota was zero.  Most of the December 15 tornadoes were rather weak, being rated at EF-0 or EF-1. There were three EF-2s in Wisconsin.

After today, we still might not be done with tornadoes this month in the United States. Another wave of near record breaking warmth, and unusually high humidity is expected to engulf the southeastern United States from now probably through the week after Christmas.  This could even last into the first few days of 2022.

Meanwhile, very cold air will lurk in the northwestern United States.  It's possible this set up could create more volatile weather in the South during this time, including the risk of more tornadoes. It's very, very questionable exactly how this will play out. Maybe we'll get lucky and the ingredients won't come together for any severe weather. 

Then again, maybe it will. It's something to watch.

Hate to say it, but climate change might have influence the number of tornadoes the United States experienced this month.

Warm, humid air is one of the key ingredients for tornadoes. If the air is warmer and more humid than it otherwise would be, that adds more energy to the atmosphere, making tornadoes more likely.

That's not to say every December going forward will have a lot of tornadoes. You need the right weather patterns to draw the heat and humidity into the U.S., And you need strong storm systems taking paths that would encourage severe weather. That, of course, doesn't always happen.