Big Rain Totals From Downpours, Thunderstorms Northern Vermont, Less South. But Wild Weather, Including Snow Still In Forecast

The wettest storm of the year so far in St. Albans, Vermont
with a storm total of 3.12 inches. Some impressive totals'
in northern Vermont. More rain coming Friday, and 
it's still looking like we'll have at least snow flakes 
in the air for Saturday. 

If you like wet and stormy days, you probably had a great time yesterday, especially in you were in the northern half of Vermont. 

The day and evening were filled with rain, heavy at times, locally gusty winds, and in many places, thunderstorms, especially in the evening. 

I don't have a full run down of rainfall yet, that will come later this morning. But some of the totals are impressive. 

I have one unofficial report of 4.25 inches in Georgia. It seems everywhere else had less, but in some cases not by much.  My rain gauge in St. Albans caught a storm total of 3.12 inches. As of 5 p.m. yesterday Fairfax reported 2.14 inches and Westford 1.94 inches. But that was before another band of heavy rain moved through. 

I'm sure we'll see some other impressive rain totals from northwest Vermont in particular as more information arrives 

Montpelier had 1.52 inches of rain Tuesday, breaking the rainfall record for the date by 0.79 inches. Across the pond, Plattsburgh was deluged by 2.56 inches of rain. 

As you move south, rainfall began to diminish, as expected. Burlington received a respectable 1.31 inches. It was a stormy day there, too, as winds gusted as high as 45 mph. 

Further south, Rutland had 0.7 inches of rain and Bennington just 0.07 inches. 

Exciting weather isn't over quite yet in Vermont as we have more heavy rain, more strong winds, very cold temperatures, and yes, snow on the way.

Let's break it down: 

TODAY

The calm after the storm.  Early today, temperatures were still weird as early morning readings were in the upper 40s north but still in the low and mid 60s south. Not all the fronts have cleared through yet, but that will happen as the morning goes on. 

Which means temperatures will even out. In the north, it will stay cloudy, so highs today will be in the 50s to near 60. Party sunny skies south will bring temperatures into the mid and upper 60s. Nice and mild. 

Lingering drizzle in the north this morning should dry out somewhat by afternoon. 

THURSDAY

Chillier as a brief incursion of cool air comes in from Quebec. It will still be the pick of the week, with sunshine, and crisp air. Highs should make it into the low 50s after a potentially frosty morning in spots. The morning cold will be nothing compared to what's coming this weekend. 

FRIDAY

Another windy, rainy storm - a real foliage stripper. It'll be another strong storm, probably heading down the St. Lawrence River Valley toward Montreal during the day. It won't rain as hard as it did yesterday, but many places in Vermont can expect more than a half inch of rain, 

 Some places could get another inch of rain. The National Weather Service says parts of the Champlain Valley night see a little less rain than everybody else. Strong southwesterly winds mean the Adirondacks will block some of the moisture.  As a cold front comes in Friday night, it will turn sharply colder. Rain will change to snow in the high elevations toward morning. 

SATURDAY

A real taste of winter. As the National Weather Service in South Burlington put it, well have a race between how fast the cold air comes in versus how fast the dry air arrives. That will determine who gets snow, and how much. 

It's possible the Champlain Valley could see a few flakes early in the day. Much of the rest of Vermont outside southern valleys will also see at least a few snow flurries. A dusting could accumulate, mostly at elevations above 1,000 feet. The summits could see two or three inches of snow. '

It will truly be a wintry day. Most places will be below freezing to start the day, and only rise into the 30s to near 40 for highs. That's typical of early December, not mid-October. Strong northwest winds will make it feel much colder.

Although this storm will be a foliage stripper, there probably will be a few leaves left to contrast with white mountain summits. Or, a dusting of snow on landscapes with some colorful trees could make for some beautiful photos. Classic Vermont snoliage. 

Winds will diminish somewhat Saturday night, but we'll go below freezing again. 

SUNDAY

The start of a warming trend, though we're starting from a point that can't be much colder this time of year. By afternoon Sunday, it should be up near 50 degrees under sunny skies. That's still cool for this time of year, but still, it'll feel nice after Saturday, especially since the wind will be lighter

NEXT WEEK

After the weather excitement this week, we have much more reasonable, calmer weather in store. Temperatures will be near normal, or even slightly warmer than normal on some days, and the weather should stay pretty dry. It'll be a nice Indian summer-ish break from the cold weather this weekend. 

 

It's True Autumn In Vermont Now, And You'll Notice It

Raindrops on a flower this morning in St. Albans, 
Vermont. There's a chance of more showers and 
thunderstorms later today, but some places 
might not get any new rain at all

Typically in Vermont, the first week or so of September often still feels like summer. Then, that warmth fades away. 

We pretty much are feeling that this year. Sure, we'll have a few summer-ish days yet. We'll have several more warm days before winter hits, of course. 

Today will be among those warmer days.  This morning, the vaguely humid, wet air still had the distinct aroma of autumn, not summer. 

Yesterday, Vermont was blessed with yet another gorgeous Saturday. Since at least June, Saturdays have tended to be nice. Just the fortunate rhythm of the weather patterns, I guess. 

After a Saturday morning in Burlington that was the coolest since June 3. it was also comfortably warm that afternoon.  But it felt nothing like summer. Just a gorgeous September day. 

Let's look ahead at what's coming. 

TODAY

Most of Vermont had some rain overnight and early this morning. It looks like most places had a third of an inch of rain. A few places received close to a half inch of rain.  It was still raining early today in eastern Vermont, which is great, as it's needed.  

This Vermont rain is the outer edge of much heavier downpours in southern New England. Flash flood warnings were up in Connecticut, and those flooding rains were spreading toward Rhode Island and Massachusetts. 

Today will actually not be a terribly bad weather day. Better than I thought 24 hours ago. Maybe not as rainy or stormy as originally thought. That said, we still have a shower and even a thunderstorm risk. 

Some clearing will arrive this afternoon, which could send us one of two ways as a cold front approaches. 

On one hand, dry and sinking air behind this morning's rain could help squelch showers and thunderstorms that want to develop. On the other hand, the sun could increase the amount of instability in the air. That would encourage some thunderstorms. 

Any showers that do develop will be mostly in the late afternoon and evening. 

The bottom line is, we still have a marginal risk of severe storms today. That means there could be isolated instances of damaging winds or large hail. Most of us will be fine. 

This is also a conditional forecast, meaning we don't know whether the sinking air or the strong sun will win out. We might see no thunderstorms, or quite a few of them, depending on which scenario wins. 

Showers should continue into the evening.

MONDAY

You know those autumn days I mentioned above? Monday will be one of those. It'll be even chillier than it was on Friday. Morning clouds will yield to sunshine. Those clouds might hold tough for much of the day in the Northeast Kingdom.  Despite afternoon sunshine in most of Vermont, temperatures will hold in the 60s. Some colder spots in the Northeast Kingdom could stay in the 50s. 

The cold hollows in Vermont and New York need to worry about frost Monday night. 

TUESDAY

The morning will start cold. Dawn temperatures will be between 38 to 45 degrees, a little colder than it was Saturday morning. Frost will probably glisten on the grass in the coldest hollow of eastern Vermont. That's nothing unusual for this time of year, but it's a reminder that it's September. 

Much like Saturday, south winds will help boost afternoon temperatures into the low 70s. A weak front that will be falling apart over northern New England Tuesday night. That will create clouds. The clouds, and some south winds will hold temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s. 

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We've been talking about a fast west to east air flow that makes forecasts challenging. Forecasters think a weather disturbance might come through with some rain later Wednesday and Thursday. But we're not sure if that will actually happen or not. It could go too far south or north of us. 

It'll be on the seasonably warm side, with highs Wednesday through Friday in the 70s and lows in the 50s. But beyond that, it looks like cooler weather will settle in. 

 

The First Windy, Rainy Autumn Storm About To Hit Vermont, Though Rainfall Might Not Be As Impressive As First Thought

Henry the Weather Dog enjoyed an unexpectedly 
sunny day yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont. A
sort of summer/autumn hybrid storm is expected
tonight, with some decent amounts of rain.

Once we get to September, the nature of storms starts to change. In the summer, it's mostly all scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

Sometimes the thunderstorms get a little too rambunctious with high winds and hail, but most of the time it's OK.  

September comes, and the nature of the storms start to change. They become more of a steady rain. Southern Vermont got a taste of that yesterday morning, as a disturbance zipped through with periods of rain. 

Many places south of Route 4 had between a quarter and a half inch of  rain. Under the cloud cover, temperatures stayed in the autumnal 60s in some parts of the south. 

Up north of Route 2, the sun made an unexpectedly strong showing, boosting temperatures into the upper 70s to score us up there a nice late summer day.

Let's get into what happens next:

TODAY

We'll get through the day mostly or completely dry, but it probably won't be all that bright and sunny. Oh,, sure we'll have a few breaks, especially this morning,   A few light reengage showers could arrive this afternoon, but don't count on any rain during the day. 

The upcoming storm isn't fully an autumn type system. It's sort of not quite summer, not quite autumn thing, so there's elements of both seasons in it.  You'll feel the humidity increase somewhat during the day today, a little like you'd expect ahead of an approaching summer cold front.

Winds will pick up today, too, the way they do ahead of an autumn storm. The winds won't be horrific by any stretch of the imagination, But south winds could gust to 30 mph in the northern Champlain Valley and higher elevations this afternoon and evening before the rain gets here. 

Today is not the day to take your boat or kayak out onto Lake Champlain.

The hybrid nature of the storm meaning areas to the south - not affecting us here in Vermont - will be rather hot and humid. With a risk of severe thunderstorms along a broad band from the southeastern Great Lakes down through the Mid-Atlantic states.

Already, early this morning, there were already severe thunderstorms moving southeastward off of Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario. As of shortly before 8 a.m. there was already a tornado warning in northwestern Pennsylvania. 

Which leads us into tonight:

TONIGHT IN VERMONT

The rain and thunderstorms will move toward Vermont this evening. The thunderstorms will become elevated, meaning a layer of stable air will hold near the ground. That will prevent severe thunderstorms here, but still allow for chances of lighting, thunder and bursts of heavier rain overnight. 

The downpours will be interspersed with a steadier light rain, again like you'd see in the autumn. 

Unfortunately, forecasts for rainfall amounts have been trending downward. We need the soaker, and this won't be as great a soaking as we'd hoped. But, anything is better than nothing. 

For now, we're expecting a half inch to an inch of rain across Vermont.  However, there's still a chance we'll get a little less than that, given the trends I've seen in the forecast. 

THURSDAY

Showers should continue into Thursday morning and maybe into the early afternoon. Thursday should also bring a brief interlude of humid weather.  Showers should end later in the day and with any luck we'll have some sun later in the day. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

A bit fall-like again. Our storm will slow down and spin around the Canadian Maritimes, as autumn storms often do. That means at least partly cloudy or mostly cloudy skies, with light showers, mostly over the mountains and Northeast Kingdom. 

It won't be all that chilly, with highs within a few degrees either side of 70 and lows in the 50s. The brief humidity from Thursday will have been solidly flushed out of here.

At this point, Sunday looks sunnier with continued seasonable high temperatures near or a little above 70.

A Gorgeous Vermont Wednesday, Storm Risk Thursday And Another Sign Of Autumn?

A very of Jay Peak on a lovely late afternoon yesterday
as viewed from near Enosburgh, Vermont. 

 OK, Tuesday's weather wasn't bad at all, as a low morning overcast in parts of Vermont broke up into puffy clouds mixed with blue skies. And it was cool, or at least cool-ish, with a hint of autumn in the air.  

After a comfortable night, we have a beauty on the way to day, with sunshine, low humidity and comfortable afternoon temperatures into the 70s to around 80. 

Today will be the 17th day in a row with a remarkable stretch of steady temperatures. Daily high temperatures in Burlington have ranged only nine degrees between 73 and 82 degrees.

That steady streak might be slightly broken tomorrow. You't think that since we're headed toward fall, it would be a cool high temperature. Nope, it might be on the warm side. 

Here are the details on Thursday, since it will be kind of a busy day. 

THURSDAY

South winds will import warmer, more humid air into Vermont. The expected high temperature in Burlington is 84 degrees. That's nothing special for late August but still the warmest since August 9. 

A cold front will be approaching.  The combination of that front, the warmth and the humidity, as is so often the case in the summer, is a recipe for thunderstorms. Especially since the front will be approaching  during peak heating in the afternoon. 

As nice as this summer has been in Vermont, it's also been a stormy one, and it's looking like we have another round to go through.

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk, a one out of five alert level for severe storms. That means we might see some isolated instances of damming winds or hail Thursday afternoon or evening. 

The SPC even has us in a very, very low, but not zero risk of another tornado in Vermont. We've already had two tornadoes, and at least three close misses with tornado weather, the most recent of which was during severe weather in Franklin County back on August 10.

 It does look like there's a slightly higher chance of severe storms a little to our south, in central New York and eastern Pennsylvania, and we'll keep an eye out on whether that somewhat higher alert level moves north toward us. 

As always with these thunderstorms, it will be hit and miss. Some of us will get nailed with lightning, wind and downpours and others will be left out. In general, we'll probably only get a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a few spots getting cheated out of any rain at all, and a very few others getting a good inch of rain if they get hit by more than one thunderstorms. 

FRIDAY

Cold fronts bring colder air - duh! - so it will be cooler. It's still August, so don't reach for the ski parkas and ear muffs, it won't get that cold. Highs will be in the 70s, under partly sunny skies. There might be some lingering light showers, and the day may prove rather cloudy over the northern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. 

There might even be a rumble of thunder or two mixed with with the showers. But overall, rainfall will be light. The vast majority of us will get less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Some places will get nothing, or just sprinkles. 

And here's another subtle sign of autumn: The temperature in Burlington might go under 50 degrees Friday night and early Saturday for the first time since June 3.  This might among the longest times   spent Burlington has ever spent above 50 degrees on record, but it's not the record longest.

It was continuously above 50 degrees from June 6 to September 21, 2023, for instances. A few other summers in the past decade or two have had long stretches above 50 like this, but it used to be unheard of. We're living in a warmer world now.

SATURDAY

Our trend of lovely Vermont summer Saturdays continues. After a cool start (see above) with patchy fog in the valleys, it should turn sunny and mild, with low humidity once again.  At least if current forecasts are correct. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

So far, Sunday is looking like another gorgeous day before shower chances return on Monday. How the showers play out early next week is still a big question mark, but it's nothing to worry about for now. 

Showery Vermont Sunday, Might Be Thundery Depending On The Atmosphere. So-so Weather To Start The Week

A hibiscus flower on my back deck blooms amid the
very steady temperatures we've had this month so far.

We had another nice comfortable day in Vermont Saturday, though, as expected it was nicer the further north and west you went. 

Skies were mostly sunny in the far northwest, but rather cloudy southeast. High were in the 70s to a couple 80 degree readings in the sunshine northwest. 

Today will not be so nice with showers and maybe a strong thunderstorm or two. More on that in a minute, but first, some weird Vermont climatology. 

Yesterday's highs spotlighted a remarkable steady trend in temperatures. In the twelve days since August 10 daily high temperatures have ranged only between 73 and 82 degrees, as measured in Burlington.  In that respect I guess you can call our recent weather boring. Especially since those temperatures are close to normal. 

WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consul recently noted on Facebook that this is the time of year that normally has the least day-to-day variation in temperature. Average is four or five degrees difference in temperature day to day in August. 

But this stretch has been much more than that, with just nine degrees difference over 12 days. The same period last year had high temperatures ranging between 70 and 98 degrees. So things aren't always this steady in August.  

I think the lack of variety in temperatures stems from the fact it's still summer. We don't yet have the powerful cold and warm fronts that make Vermont days wildly different between, say, Monday and Tuesday. 

Also, ground and water temperatures are near their peak this time of year, and that tends to moderate the temperature.

Remarkably, over the coming seven days, the National Weather Service says afternoon highs will remain almost within the range we've had for nearly two weeks now. Between now and next Saturday, daily highs in Burlington are forecast to range between 75 to 84.

For now, then, if you don't like the weather in Vermont, you have to wait much more than a minute for it to change. 

Unless you're talking about cloud cover and rainfall. For the next week or so, expect rain to pop up randomly from time to time. The sun will be in and out of the clouds. Here are the details. 

TODAY

Kind of a confusing day in the weather department. Here's why: Virtually everyone in Vermont should get rain today, but most of us won't see much of it. But a few places could have some heavy downpours. 

There's also mixed signals on whether any thunderstorms this afternoon and evening might get strong or not. 

As forecast, a storm is going by to our west, taking most of its heavy rain with it. But that storm is swinging a weather front our way. It'll come at us from the west. 

The timing is such that the best chance of showers and storms would be in the afternoon and early evening. That's the time of day with peak heating, which is great if you want strong storms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk - level 1 of 5 alert level - for severe storms. That would mean there would be a couple isolated incidents of severe weather in Vermont, but most of us will be fine. 

If any severe weather does get going in Vermont today, it would take the form of very local areas of damaging winds or hail.

Complicating the forecast is some showers this morning. Those showers were working their way northward through Vermont this morning. The patchy morning rain and overcast might be enough to squelch instability in the atmosphere. That, it turn would prevent most thunderstorms from forming. 

We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out, I guess. It won't rain all day, so you can get outside. If you are outdoors, especially on the lakes, head inside if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, or if you get a weather warning or special weather statement.

Highs today will once again be in the 70s to near 80, and it will feel a bit more humid than it's been

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Weak low pressure spinning in Quebec should keep clouds and the risk of mostly light showers going both days. In a flip flop from Saturday, southern Vermont valleys should see the best weather with more sunshine and a much lower chance of showers. 

Northern Vermont, especially in the Green Mountains, will see more clouds and a better chance of showers. Those areas could pick up another quarter to a third of an inch of rain. Not all that much, but anything is helpful while we await a soaking rain that's still not in the forecast.

Highs both days should be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

At the point, it's looking like a return to nice weather. Warm, too with highs in many places getting to 80 degrees. Thursday's forecast high in Burlington is 84, which isn't that wild for this time of year, but it would still be the hottest day since August 9.

The warmth on Thursday might be tempered by clouds arriving from the next weather system, so we'll see.

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

Another batch of showers looks to come through Friday. Those could linger into Saturday. So far, this systems does not look impressive

 

Today Is Another Nice Vermont Summer Day. Tomorrow Brings Showers, But Probably Not Enough

A pot of flowers enjoys this morning's sunshine in 
St. Albans, Vermont. We've been watering these
plants since  not enough rain has been falling from
the sky. A little rain is forecast tomorrow

 We promised a perfect Friday weather day and that is what we got. 

Nothing was wrong. Temperatures were perfect, skies were blue with just a few puffy clouds. And somehow, despite all the wildfires burning out West and in Canada, there was no smoky haze in the atmosphere. 

The weather for the weekend won't be as nice as yesterday. But the rest of today should be OK, and Sunday probably won't be a complete washout. 

I had a late night, so I'm doing my morning report really late so, let's get into it

REST OF TODAY

Sunshine should  generally hang on, as forecasters have delayed an expected increase in clouds. Some clouds will work in during the afternoon, but it should remain a nice one. Judging from this morning's satellite photos, southeast Vermont will likely have more clouds that the northwest part of the state. 

High temperatures should be within a few degrees either side of 80. 

SUNDAY

We're still lookin at two storms going past us, one to the east, one to the west. The weak coastal storm to the east will take almost all of its rain through eastern New England. The storm to the west, moving into Quebec, will take most of its rain through western New York and on toward Ottawa and north of that.

That western storm should swing a weather front toward us, leaving mixed opinions on how that will affect Vermont weather. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says instability in the atmosphere will be pretty lame, so if any thunderstorms do manage to get going they won't be particularly intense

Meanwhile,  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning there could be an isolated storm or two that could produce damaging winds. Severe weather under this scenario wouldn't be widespread, but there could be a trouble spot or two

In any event, most of us won't get that much rain tomorrow afternoon and evening. Except for places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm, we should expect a quarter inch of rain or less.

High temperature should get into the 70s and low 80s, and it'll feel little more humid than it's been lately. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

The storm, such as it is, will swirl up on Quebec for a couple days, sending somewhat cool breezes and some moisture our way. That means partly to mostly cloudy skies and showers. Those showers should be few and far between in southern valleys, but pretty frequent far north and in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

The showers won't be particularly heavy. Northern areas might pick up another quarter inch of rain, while southern spots will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less. We could use much more rain than that, but I don't see any real soakers on the horizon. 

Mostly Quiet Vermont Week Continues, Possible Storms Northwest This Afternoon; Weekend Rain Questions

I had a dream last night that Vermont was raked by
extreme tornadoes, like the one pictured, along
with extreme floods and August snow. Happily
for all of us, we're in the midst of a relatively
uneventful weather week. Though there could
be a few storms north late today. 

 The fog was a little slow to clear in some areas of Vermont yesterday, but it did clear, leading to a partly cloudy, seasonable day. Hope you enjoyed it!

Since we don't have much weather excitement, I have to tell you about one of my strange dreams last night. (I have vivid, weird dreams on a nightly basis).

In the dream, El Nino triggered a massive, unprecedented late August storm in the Northeast. 

Everybody in New England, including here in Vermont,  was told to expect a swarm of powerful EF-5 tornadoes, followed by hurricane force winds, rains that would cause epic floods followed by several inches of August snow. 

I'm extremely happy to report that I guarantee we won't see anything dramatic like that this week. Or any week. Sure, climate change and El Nino are making weather more extreme, but nothing like that!

Instead, were happily stuck with a week of fairly nice, mostly uneventful
weather, but with a few hiccups here and there. 

The first hiccup is today.

REST OF TODAY

We are still expecting that dying cold front to make its way toward us this afternoon, from the northwest. 

I'm a little gun shy now when I bring up a chance of thunderstorms. After last week, when it seemed any little thunderstorm would blow up into something severe, I don't want to relax too much about the chances of high winds or other problems with any thunderstorms. 

That said, the deck is stacked against severe weather. As this morning's National Weather Service forecast discussion points out, there is some wind aloft that thunderstorms could potentially use to create gusty winds down here where we live. But a lack of instability, dry air aloft and some showers in Quebec this morning will all work against any storms taking advantage of those winds aloft. 

To quote the National Weather Service/South Burlington office: "Strong to severe storms are not likely today, but cannot be completely ruled out."

Sigh.

If any storms happen, they're most likely in northern New York and the far northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. Even those late afternoon and evening showers and storms will be hit and miss, so not everybody in this zone will get wet.

The further south you go, the less chance of rain. Everybody, or almost everybody in southern Vermont gets nothing. Overall, it'll be a typical August day, with highs near 80 degrees with moderate humidity.

THURSDAY

There might be some clouds around in the afternoon, but overall it'll be a nice day, as highs get well into the 70s. There could be a sprinkle over the northern mountains and Northeast Kingdom, but it won't be nearly enough to ruin this cool-ish August day.

FRIDAY

We'll be off to a cool start with patchy early morning fog.  Most places will be in the low 50s as dawn breaks, with the chillier valleys in the upper 40s. The fog will burn off to reveal the pick of the weather week, Highs will reach the 70s to near 80 under sunny skies and low humidity.

SATURDAY

Another nice one, as it looks now. Sunshine, with maybe some afternoon clouds It'll be up near 80 degrees.

SUNDAY

The next weather system arrives. It looks like the day might be showery, especially later on. But the amount and location of the rain, along with the timing of it, are still in the iffy stage. However, this doesn't look like a serious, scary storm at this point

 

Hint Of Autumn In Vermont. Next Up: Upcoming Rain Not As Big A Soaker As Previously Hoped

Yesterday was the first day this season that really felt like autumn was coming. 

Expected rainfall through Monday night. Decent rains
are forecast in the Northeast Kingdom, with lesser 
amounts south. Severe weather is unlikely, we hope!

Thanks in part to extra clouds during part of the day, and also some steady north winds, Saturday was a little cooler than forecast. In Burlington, we had the coolest average temperature since June 7. The temperature barely made it to 70 degrees in Montpelier and Newport. 

At dawn today, it was in the 40s statewide, except for a few low 50s near Lake Champlain. It will get a little warmer this week, but full summertime heat looks fleeting, at least for now. Let's get into it.

TODAY

There were already high clouds mixed with some wildfire smoke aloft, overhead early this morning in northern Vermont, while southern Vermont remained clear. I think northern Vermont might tend to temporarily clear out, and then clouds, and maybe a little smoke aloft will start to return this afternoon. 

The smoke is not near the surface,  so there won't be any air quality problems. Rainfall has been postponed again, so you'll have a dry day for outdoor activities. It will also be a little warmer than yesterday, as we get into the  upper 70s, give or take.

TONIGHT

It's still going to rain, later tonight, but not as much as we first hoped. There could still be some decent rains in the Northeast Kingdom, which is good because they need the rain more than other parts of the state. Up there, current forecasts give them a half to an inch of rain. 

The rest of us are in line for a tenth to a half inch of rain tonight through Monday. So nothing huge, but still, pretty decent. The northern Champlain Valley should have a little more than in southern Vermont. 

MONDAY

The rain won't be over as a cold front slowly makes its way toward Vermont.  It'll be a humid Monday quite a switch from the last few days. Dew points could get as high as 70s degrees, which is oppressive as hell.

Showers could break out at any time, most likely in the afternoon. There could be some thunderstorms, too, especially in western Vermont south of Burlington, as it looks now.  Meteorologists don't think we face more severe storms, but we'll have to watch western Vermont for an isolated strong storm or two. 

TUESDAY

A decent day. Sunshine, with lower humidity. Much better than Monday will be, but not rock bottom humidity like we expect on Monday.  Highs should get up to within a few degrees either side of 80.

REST OF WEEK

Another front should arrive Wednesday and Wednesday evening with showers and possible thunderstorms. So far, I'm not too impressed by this weather system, but we'll see how it plays out. We might  have some showers lingering into Thursday, but again, no big deal. 

Another round of nice late summer weather should return by late in the week. But remember, forecasts several days out are subject to big time revisions. Don't start planning your outdoor events for next weekend just yet.  

Another Day, More Severe Storms In Vermont. Surprise Thunderstorms Possible - It Continues

A pretty shower cloud billows up looking northeast  from 
St. Albans, Vermont Thursday afternoon. While most of
the day's scattered showers and storms were harmless.
a couple brought damaging winds and hail to a few
spots in the state. 

As always, it seems lately, somebody in Vermont had a rough weather day. 

We have a few new severe storm reports from yesterday, as our pattern of rough weather continues. 

Most of us actually had a pretty nice day, with partly sunny skies and billowing clouds that made the day perfect for sky watching.

But there were a few trouble spots, the most notable being in western Rutland County. 

A severe storm there deposited ping pong ball sized hailstones on Fair Haven, and took down numerous trees along a section of Route 30 in Castleton. Elsewhere, in far northern Vermont, a storm took down at least one tree in North Troy.

So, it was the third day in a row with damaging storms in Vermont. 

TODAY

We've spend the past couple of days saying how glorious the weather will be today, but surprise! It turns out a couple more thunderstorms will hit parts of the state today. They probably won't be severe, but with our track record recently, you'd never know.

Meteorologists have known for days that a small weather disturbance would pass through Vermont today. A few days ago, that forecast suggested showers today. But in the past couple of days, it looked like a dry atmosphere today would support nothing more than some puffy clouds to decorate the skies.

Instead, the disturbance now looks like it will trigger some showers and maybe a couple of thunderstorms in a stripe heading southeastward from the central Adirondacks, through west central and southern Vermont  and into southern New England. 

At this point, it doesn't look like the storms will be severe, since the disturbance is weak and there's not a lot of heat and humidity to work with.  But I wouldn't rule out some gusty winds with one or two storms. 

Other than that, the day should be partly sunny/partly cloudy with highs in the 70s. With comfortable humidity as a bonus.

SATURDAY

Finally! A day without a risk that we'd have to beat a hasty retreat indoors to escape a sudden rainstorm.  We can expect sunshine, low humidity and highs in the 70s. Maybe close to 80 in the warmest spots in the Lower Connecticut River Valley.

Once again, we'll have a Saturday endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. We've been blessed with quite a few nice Saturdays this summer, in contrast to our general Green Mountain State rule that weekends cause rain.

SUNDAY

Speaking of rain, we think some will arrive Sunday, but we might still eke out a decent day. At least part of it. 

Those famous computer models have settled on a storm system coming into New England, probably beginning  later Sunday, but there's still questions about how much rain Vermont will get and whether those damn thunderstorms will start hassling us again. 

As it stands now, it looks like clouds will thicken and lower as we go through the day, with some showers arriving, maybe by late afternoon. Again, as it looks now, Sunday night looks rainy. We have an OK shot at having a statewide, soaking rain, which is great news for those parts of the state that missed out on the downpours from all those hit and miss thunderstorms we've had lately. 

Especially if this thing goes a little further north than expected, enough instability and deep moisture could reach Vermont to also touch off some overnight thunderstorms, just to make things noisy. Iffy this point, but we shall see.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Maybe yet more showers and thunderstorms Monday as a cold front passes through. An early guess at next Tuesday suggests sunny and seasonable mid-August weather

No Escaping The Vermont Severe Weather: More Yesterday, Maybe A Little More Today

A distant thunderstorm erupts yesterday afternoon, looking
north from St. Albans, Vermont. Some storms were 
unexpectedly strong Wednesday afternoon, producing
scattered wind damage and hail.

 Yesterday in Vermont was supposed to be a pretty nice day: Partly sunny with just a chance of a shower or garden variety thunderstorm. 

Instead, the weather radar was lit up like a Christmas tree by early afternoon. And an atmosphere that Wednesday morning seemed like it was incapable of yielding any real volatility did just that. 

So, we have more severe storm damage reports this morning. A Chittenden County storm before 1 p.m. knocked down four large trees along Route 2A in St. George. Another good sized tree fell and blocked busy Route 116 near the South Burlington/St. George town line. Small hail fell in South Burlington. 

But we weren't done yet. Another severe storm ripped through central Vermont during the evening, ripping down trees and utility wires around Goshen. Chittenden and Rochester were pelted by quarter-sized hail.

We might not be done with this kind of weather yet

TODAY

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the northeastern half of New England, including the portion of Vermont north and east of Interstate 89, under a marginal, level one out of five risk of severe storms today.

So, nothing widespread, but still, the chance of some trouble. It looks like any area in central and northern Vermont could see an isolated severe storm today. Especially north of Route 2.

The biggest risk is a few incidences of strong gusty winds and hail.  The freezing levels in the atmosphere is a little low for August, so that increases the chance of hail. We shouldn't see anything like David Letterman's canned ham-sized hail, but small hail is a decent bet if any stronger storms form. And there's a chance of a few larger chunks of ice, maybe up to the size of quarters. 

A few showers could break out at any time today, but the best chance of thunderstorms is during the late afternoon and evening. As is usually the case, they will be hit and miss. Some places will see nothing, a number of other Vermont towns will see some rain and a rumble of thunder but nothing exciting, and a small minority might get blasted by a storm. 

One encouraging note: At least one weather model doesn't give us much of anything today in terms of storms. I wouldn't necessarily lean on that model to be right, but it's a sign of hope, I guess.

Unlike many summer days with thunderstorms,  today won't be particularly hot, nor humid. Highs will only be in the 75 to 82 degree range, with dew points in the so-so low 60s. So slightly humid, but not ridiculous.

FRIDAY

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say we will have no severe weather. The atmosphere will be extremely hostile to anything like that, while at the same time it will be extremely nice to us humans. 

The cold front will have passed, leaving us with mostly sunny skies, low humidity and a nice cool breeze from the north. Highs will only be in the 70s, maybe near 80 in the warmest towns in the lower Connecticut River Valley

A patch of clouds could come over Friday night, but they will do nothing other than keep temperatures a tad higher than they otherwise would be. Expect lows in the 46 to 55 degree range, generally. So it will still be a nice cool sleeping night

SATURDAY

At this point, it looks like another beauty. It will basically be a repeat of Friday: Sunshine, highs in the 70s, a slight cool breeze.

SUNDAY

It's not looking so nice, at least later in the day. The next weather disturbance comes through, potentially with beneficial rains. The storms so far this month - bad as they've been - have been hit and miss. Many areas are pretty dry. 

We don't have an absolute guarantee on this little storm yet. It could go too far to our south, giving us not all that much rain. If for some reason it goes to the north of us, it could pull in enough unstable, humid air to give us, sigh, another risk of severe storms. 

At the moment, anyway, it looks like just a light to moderate rainfall Sunday afternoon and night. As always, stay tuned for updates!

Much Of Nation So Rainy That Widespread Flood Risks This Week. In Vermont, Not So Much

A torrential downpour in Colchester this past Saturday.
Despite that spot of super wet weather for an hour or'
so, Vermont is starting to get a little dry, but we're'
so far not plunging into a dangerous drought like
we did at this time last year. 

 It'll be a super rainy week in much of the United States this week, with flood potential cropping up in huge areas of the Lower 48. 

Today it's the Ohio Valley and southern Arizona. Tomorrow, it's the same places, plus the central Appalachians, with West Virginia particularly in the cross hairs. Wednesday, same places, same risk. 

Thursday, it's a huge area covering the eastern Rocky Mountains and a wide stripe from Iowa to West Virginia (again!), 

Unfortunately, Washington, Oregon and much of British Columbia, ablaze with wildfires, can expect little or no rain for at least the next week. 

Here in Vermont, NOAA has us in a marginal risk of a flash flood tonight in case we have locally heavy downpours, but the risk looks really, really low. 

I'm not hoping for any floods here in Vermont. Gawd knows we've had enough of that in recent years. But with the notably exception of the Burlington area and parts of Addison County, rainfall has been lacking lately.

Dryish areas are close to those few soggy areas. For instance, Burlington has had a healthy 2.69 inches of rain so far this month. Meanwhile, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, maybe just 30 miles north of Burlington, has had just 0.91 inches,

We're definitely not falling into a dangerous, deep drought like we were at this time last year. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, only the tiniest sliver of Vermont right along the Massachusetts border was considered abnormally dry during July and the first week of August. 

Abnormally dry is a level that's a precursor to drought, though not actually in one. 

Last week's report introduced a new "abnormally dry" region covering most of the Northeast Kingdom. 

As I mentioned above, some rain is in the forecast, but the deep moisture that we had in place late last week and over the weekend is mostly gone. That means super soakers of rain are less likely. 

For now, we're going to see quick-hitting weather systems that will provide some rain. Unless things change, though, I don't see any widespread drenching rains in our immediate future.

As always, here are the details: 

TODAY

The next weather front is on its way for an arrival later today into tonight. That will bring our next round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Before we get there, highs today under partly cloudy skies should get to near 80 degrees. You'll notice the humidity creeping up again, though it won't be as bad as it was Friday and Saturday.

Though some locally heavy downpours are possible tonight, most areas won't see all that much rain. 

Amounts will be highly variable as they always are with summertime cold fronts. But in general, it looks like areas north of Route 2 might see a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a trace to a quarter inch further south. Again with localized exceptions. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

Nice late summer weather after lingering showers clear out early Tuesday. Both days will feature sunny afternoons with reasonably low humidity levels. Not rock bottom, but close enough. Highs should get up to somewhere in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Tuesday night will be our firs real ahhhhh night in awhile, as lows will drop into the 50s,

THURSDAY

The next quick cold front come through. It looks like a fairly lengthy stretch of shower risks from Wednesday night through Friday morning. However, with the exception of locally heavy downpours, so far, this rainfall also looks unimpressive. Stay tuned on that in case there are any changes. Could be, as there's a chance this system could grab better moisture. So far, though, I'm pessimistic on a soaker.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Once we get this far ahead of ourselves, take forecasts with not a grain of salt, but with a great big hunk of frozen together rock salt. But as it stands now, we have a shot at some delightful weather, with just a hint of autumn. 

Daytime highs under (cross your fingers) sunny skies would stay in the 70s. Nighttime lows would be within a few degrees either side of 50, so definitely some great sleeping weather. 

REST OF THE MONTH

So far, there's not many signs of weather excitement for us, but those kinds of things can emerge as we get closer to specific events. For now, it looks like we'll stay in a pretty fast west to east wind flow. That means frequent but not huge shifts in the weather. Under this scenario, we'd have occasional quick hits of showers interspersed with sunny periods that are neither particularly hot or cool for this time of year.

Since summer isn't quite over, there might be a very warm, humid day or two thrown into the mix, but nothing too scary. 

Rain Oddly Lacking In Vermont's "Florida Weather" Spell; Gradual Trend To Big, Long Cooldown Starts In Upcoming Week

Chaotic looking sky over St. Albans, Vermont early
last evening as showers and storms tried to develop
over New York state. By the time the showers or
their remnants reached Vermont later in the
evening, most of us got very little rain. 

 It's really sticky out there again as we wake up this Saturday morning, but the end is in sight. It will be a gradual trend toward cooler, less humid air but we'll get there. More on that in a bit. 

One thing that's sort of surprising me about this spell of super humid air is the lack of rainfall in most places. I tend to associated such high humidity with lots of downpours and even flash flooding. 

A few places have experience just that, but the majority of us so far haven't. 

For instance, through around mid-morning yesterday, most places in Vermont had received less than a quarter inch of rain. 

Many places had nothing. There were just a few exceptions to that. Shoreham was drenched with 2.4 inches of rain in the 24 hours ending midmorning Friday. 

The widely scattered towns of Shelburne, Orwell and West Rutland picked up about an inch during that time. t 

More showers and storms formed yesterday afternoon and last night, but they also didn't wet down all that many people.

Overnight, the National Weather Service office in Burlington saw fit to issue a flash flood warning for an area on the New York side of Lake Champlain due to slow moving downpours. This was in a zone generally encompassing Elizabethtown, Westport, Essex, Moriah, Willsboro and Keene. 

Burlington is just about the only major town or city in Vermont that has made out well with the rain. They've had an inch of rain since Thursday. Here in St. Albans, we've at least had some wetting, but not much. We had just 0.12 inches overnight for a two-day total of right around a quarter inch. I'll still have to keep the sprinklers handy, even if there is more rain in the forecast. 

The same state of affairs with scattered showers and storms will continue today. Many of us could get a little wet, but probably only a small number of us will get thoroughly drenched. The details:

TODAY

Whatever overnight rain we did receive had mostly moved out. as of 8 a.m. today. Some showers were lingering in the Northeast Kingdom. 

More scattered downpours had already gotten going in central New York and those might head toward central Vermont, if they hold together, Which is iffy. More showers and storms will develop in the horribly humid air this afternoon and evening. 

As always, it's hard to say exactly who gets the storms. Though there are some tentative indications that central Vermont has the best chance, we'll see. The showers and storms won't be moving all that quickly.  So there's a minimal risk that a handful of places could see some very local flash flood issues if a downpour stalls overhead,  No guarantee, but it's slightly possible.  

In any event, all of us will continue to wilt in high humidity today. Highs should make it back into the low and mid 80s. Maybe some isolated upper 80s where it doesn't rain, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

Tonight will remain humid with patches of fog forming. Some lingering widely scattered showers could linger well into the night.

SUNDAY

Actually, not terrible. Pretty darn good, in fact! After a risk of early morning showers, skies should become at least partly sunny. The humidity will be down, too. It won't exactly be refreshing, but it will feel only a little on the sticky side. Highs should get well into the 80s again. Winds will he on the light side, so we should have a decent beach and boating day. 

MONDAY

The shift in the weather pattern will be beginning, but we won't quite feel it yet on Monday. An approaching cold front will gradually cloud up our skies. Humidity will rise again, but not quite to the level we saw in the past couple of days. 

We'll have a rising chance of shower and maybe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with highs in the 80s.

TUESDAY

This will be our first step down as we enter a cooling trend that will also gradually lower our humidity levels. Dew points should be in the low 60s again by afternoon, which isn't terrible. Highs will be seasonably near 80 under what we think will be partly sunny skies.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY

A series of weather disturbance will zip through in a fast west to east flow. Each one of these will bring our temperatures down a couple notches. Since these disturbances will be moving fast and we'll be out of the super humid air, we probably won't get all that much rain. 

By the end of the week and into next weekend, we'll be seeing daytime highs in the 70s and lows probably in the mid and upper 50s. That's actually a little cooler than average for mid-August. 

With the usual caveat that long range forecast can change, I really don't see any signs of more heat and humidity until at least the last week of August. Maybe beyond that, who knows. Could this be the end of summer? 

The answer is probably not. But after this weekend, I think we might be passing the peak risk of heat and humidity for the summer. We've actually entered solar autumn. The 25 percent of the year with strongest sun and longest daylights ended earlier this week. That puts us in "solar autumn" the 25 percent of the year when daylight shortens the quickest.  

However, in our topsy-turvy climate changed and El Nino world we're in now, we could still see some torrid weather in September. It's just that the chances of that happening are diminishing.  

Florida Humidity Has Arrive In Vermont. But We Can Already See Signs It Will Eventually End

Early this morning, the sky over St. Albans, Vermont
already had that unstable, humid, hazy look to it as
we begin a long spell of oppressive weather. 

 Well, that humidity blasted in early today, as scheduled. 

As of 10 a.m. dew points around Vermont were in the mid and upper 60s, which is sticky as hell. Over in New York State, a lot of low 70s dew points were popping up. Which is a sign it will get worse before it gets better. 

Regular readers will note that I'm posting my morning report closer to noon today, which is weird. I figured I'd be better off if I did some outdoor physical work that needs to get done early.  I was right, but toward the end I was dying. 

Be careful out there. Limited your activities and drink plenty of fluids. I'm drinking a big-ass bottle of Gatorade as I write this. 

The oppressive, Florida-like weather will stick around for awhile, as we've been saying the past few days. But, to give you a little encouragement, it is August.  This can't last forever. I'll get into that when I get into the daily forecasts below

In any event, there are nicks starting to appear in summer's fortress. It got down to 38 degrees in Hibbing, Minnesota yesterday morning. True, Hibbing is a traditional Minnesota cold spot, but still, I'll take it as a sign o an eventual autumn. 

Out in Denver, they're having a horribly hot summer, but they caught a big, if brief break. They had a record low of 47 degrees yesterday, which came just two days after a record high of 102. So yesterday must have been a relief for them. Unfortunately it's back to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in Denver starting today and going through next Monday. 

Even so, as you can see, we start to see the first subtle hints of summer's eventual fading hold on us. And it does look like cooler, drier air will gradually reach Vermont next week. But careful what you wish for. The weather might seem refreshing later next week. But it will be snowing in three months or less. 

REST OF TODAY

Humid, duh! Since it is so muggy, there's a chance of showers and thunderstorms. They'll be hit or miss, so not all of us will see much relief from the awfulness out there. Those of you who get bullseyed by any storms could see some torrential downpours, since there's so much moisture in the air to work with. 

The best chance of storms would be the northwest half of Vermont, but even there, not everyone will get wet. The showers should be widely scattered at best in southeast Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom. Most of the rain will come after 4 p.m., but a pop up shower could appear at any time. There were a couple small downpours in northern New York already as of 10:30 a.m. 

Other than that, the storms won't become severe or anything like that.

Tonight the showers and storms should die down after sunset, and we're left with a sticky icky night. Hope you have air conditioning! 

FRIDAY:

Despite the Florida air, we probably won't have that much in the way of showers and storms. We'll be between little disturbance bobbing along in the southwest flow of air. All this will make Friday probably the worst day of this oppressive stretch. 

Friday's setup would normally give us temperatures above 90 degrees. But the air will be so wet that most of the sun's energy will go into trying to evaporate the moisture in the atmosphere. But since southwest winds will be pumping in more wet air, the humidity won't go down. 

The result will be dew points in the low 70s with highs well up into the 80s. There's a slight chance one or two towns will hit 90, but I'm not holding my breath. The humidity, though will definitely make it feel like it's in the 90s. 

Make tomorrow a lazy day. Your body will thank you. 

I suppose there's a chance of an isolated shower or storm, but the vast majority of us will be rain-free.

SATURDAY

Just as sticky and awful as Friday. But, there's a much better chance of showers Saturday than there was on Friday. So we might get some vaguely cooling rains from time to time. I think most everyone will see some rain. A few places will get very little, other places will get absolutely soaked with downpours. As is often the case in the summer, it's the luck of the draw.

SUNDAY

The first hints of relief. It should still be humid, but not quite as bad as today and tomorrow and Saturday. There should be a fair amount of sun, with a low risk of showers and storms. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Still muggy, still a risk of showers. But it will be slightly less humid that today and highs will only be in the low 80s. Still bad, but could be worse. Note this forecast is subject to change because it's quite a few days away

LATE NEXT WEEK

For now, forecasts continue to advertise more refreshing air for later in the week. There's still time for that forecast to get messed up, but for now, that's our true light at the end of this oppressive, muggy tunnel 

Expected Overnight Rain Mostly Misses Vermont, Unfortunately. Hit And Miss Stuff Today

Late season day lilies "Country Club" variety, blooms
in St. Albans, Vermont this morning. Most of the
predicted rain avoided us, but there are some chances
of rain today, but it will be hit and miss

  Streaks of heavier rain that swept through New York and New England unfortunately mostly missed Vermont. Which is too bad, because many gardens and crops could have used a good drink.  

A few places got decent rain. Rutland had 0.56 inches through 8 a.m.  Other areas were pathetic. Montpelier has 0.15 inches. Bennington, 0.13 inches, Burlington a mere 0.05 inches. 

Southern and eastern New England grabbed the moisture. Flash flood warnings were up in parts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

So, will it rain today? Maybe, in some places. Let's get into it.

TODAY

We still have shots at getting some rain today, but it will be hit and miss. I'm hoping for more hits than miss. 

The moisture for the rain is certainly there. I'm sure you've noticed the continued humidity out there. A weak cold front is arriving today.  The front is sort of coming through in pieces, as is typical weak summer cold fronts.

That'll generate showers and storms that will cross the state from west to east today. In patches and bunches. There's a chance a couple of the storms could be fairly strong here and there. We'll end up with a patchwork of towns and cities that ended up getting a nice drink of water from the skies, while people in other towns watch the dark clouds bypass them. 

They'll be sweating as they do so as the humidity will bypass them, though the air will start to freshen up a little toward evening as the cold front staggers off into eastern New England.  The departure of that cold front means the showers and thunderstorms should be out of Vermont by late afternoon.

A trailing disturbance will probably set off some light showers this evening over northern Vermont, but they won't amount to much. 

TUESDAY

We'll have a brief break from the humidity so enjoy it, as it will be a delightful summer day squeezed in between days of mugginess. It'll be sunny, and highs will get into the 80s. So enjoy the lake, enjoy some hikes, or whatever else you're doing. 

WEDNESDAY

Actually, not bad. The humidity will creep up, but it won't get out of control. The sunshine will continue and highs will go well into the 80s. 

THURSDAY - SUNDAY

A strong Bermuda High off the East Coast still looks like it will dominate our weather. That'll pump the very warm, humid air our way. Even though it will be oppressive, temperatures will struggle to reach 90 degrees. High humidity will absorb the sun's heat, preventing extreme heat. But it won't matter, it'll be uncomfortable as hell.

We'll also have an ever-present chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best shot at seeing thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. They will be hit and miss, so we'll see rainfall winners and losers, as usual. 

Little weather disturbances riding along the muggy southwest flow will provide bursts of more numerous showers and storms, but it's hard to tell this far in advance. 

It's summer. We get this kind of weather, Soon enough we'll be complaining about the cold. Embrace the humidity. 

Flood Threat In Vermont Diminishes For Next Storm, But Does Not Entirely Disappear.

More rain on the way, but it doesn't look like enough
to cause more flooding. Most places should see an
inch or less Sunday night and Monday, though a 
couple places could see locally higher amounts. 

Weather forecasters are a little more relaxed about the chances of flooding with the Sunday night and Monday.  

We're still going to get a bunch of rain Sunday night and Monday. And we hope you like humid weather because we have plenty of it coming up. But overall, we're in the midst of a decent summer weekend. We've been lucky with these weekends. 

REST OF TODAY

A good summer day is underway once again. We've had a lot of Saturdays like this. The sun will be out most of the time. As far as rain goes, there's the slightest of chances of an isolated showers over the mountains, but that's it. 

Highs will top out in the mid-80s for most of us. It is kind of humid out there, but it won't be as oppressive as it could be. 

SUNDAY

We should make it through most of the day without rain or thunderstorms. Especially if you're in the southeastern half of Vermont. A slow moving "cold front" will be coming approaching grudgingly fro the west. A have "cold front" in quotations because it won't really drop our temperatures and the drop in humidity when it eventually comes through will be barely noticeable, 

It will get close enough to set off some scattered showers and non-severe storms late in the afternoon north and west, but not everyone will get wet. It'll be in the 80s again, and you'll notice the humidity getting worse. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

This is when the bulk of the rain and downpours come through.  There had been some concerns that a sluggish, weak but very wet storm would stall nearby, giving parts of our area another drenching and flood, like what happened in New York's Hudson Valley earlier this week, 

Instead, it looks like things will slowly progress through, so that - fingers crossed - it doesn't rain hard enough or long enough to set off any flooding. There's still a chance some locally heavy downpours cause problems, but overall, the chance of anything major look low, 

The rain should be more good than bad.  Some places, especially in the Northeast Kingdom didn't receive all that much rain this past week. As it stands now, it looks like almost everybody in Vermont should receive a decent half inch to an inch, with maybe locally higher amounts. 

I supposed there's a slight chance the forecast could once again flip flop back to a rainier, somewhat more dangerous scenario. So far, I don't see that, but of course, we'll update as necessary.

REST OF NEXT WEEK

The dog days of summer I've been talking about will continue. The weather set up with an offshore Bermuda high means very warm and humid air will keep coming at us. Tuesday will be the nicest day with a slight dip in the humidity and low to no rain chances.

The rest of the week will be partly cloudy, humid, with an ever-present chance of showers and storms. It's hard at this point to pick out which day will be the rainiest. It depends on the location of any little disturbances in that muggy flow of air. 

The clouds and showers should keep us under 90 degrees (with possibly one or two odd exceptions) But the humidity will more than make up for the lack of super hot air. Um, enjoy, I guess?  

Dog Days Of Summer Have Arrived In Vermont, Downpours Thrown In Sunday/Monday Too

A bumblebee enjoys a rose bloom this morning in 
St. Albans, Vermont amid our spell of humid air. Sticky
days will continue for at least a week along with
risks of showers and storms. 

It hasn't exactly been hot recently, but the air has felt rather sticky, here in Vermont and that state of affairs will continue for quite awhile. 

It's the dog days of summer, the nearly annual spell in which we're stuck in a long period of humid, warm air, with occasional spikes to a hot day or two mixed with rainy, thundery periods as well.

We're going to sweat it out in moderately warm air, and humidity that's moderately high until Sunday, when it will get even worse.Most of us will stay rain-fee under Sunday, when the weather forecast begins to turn iffy. Let's get into the details:   

TODAY

Partly sunny with that humidity is the bottom line.  Highs should get into the low 80s.

 noticed a couple showers early today in Addison and Rutland counties. That hints at enough instability in the air to trigger maybe an isolated shower or storm today mostly over the mountains. The vast majority of us will stay dry. though, and whatever does form shouldn't be scary. Just garden variety stuff.  

SATURDAY

Rinse and repeat. But it will be just a bit warmer as temperatures rise well into the 80s. 

SUNDAY

Here's where it gets questionable. South winds, which you'll especially notice in the Champlain Valley, will increase ahead of the next weather system. Those wind  will pump even more humid air our way, so Sunday will feel even more oppressive.

As it stands now, it looks like some showers and storms could develop in the afternoon and evening, especially in the northwestern half of the state. We still have questions on the timing and intensity of this thing, and those questions deepen Sunday night and Monday

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

It seems like the incoming front and weather disturbance will want to slow down near New England. We're pretty sure we'll see some heavy downpours around, but we don't know how long they'll last or just how heavy they'll be in any particular spot. 

The computer models have been windshield wipering between an ominous forecast of heavy rain lingering over the region for a long time, or downpours staying long enough to give us a harmless, beneficial soaking without a real risk of flooding. 

This morning's runs of computer forecast don't look all that ominous, but there's still a risk of locally heavy rain. And other model runs today might paint yet a different picture. 

In this morning's forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said they're hoping for  better, more concise guidance tomorrow on what might happen with this system. By then, well have better upper air sampling of how things are shaping. So stay tuned.  

BEYOND MONDAY

Whatever this system doesn't, it won't be one of those nice summer cold fronts that flush out the humidity for a few days. Instead it will stay warm, and probably get warmer. Temperatures might hold in the 70s amid steamy air Monday if there's a lot of clouds and rain. 

If we're lucky, it could briefly turn slightly less humid next Tuesday, but building warmth and humidity quickly return. It looks like a long stretch of very warm, humid weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week. 

Will The Vermont Rains Coming This Week Be Just What The Doctor Ordered Or Too Much Of A Good Thing?

Summer flowers this morning in St. Albans, Vermont.
The gardens are a bit parched and need rain. We'll
get some, but will it ultimately be too much?

Vermont is in for one more gorgeous summer day today. As previously advertised, this is one of the best weather weekends of the year. 

Today will be almost the same as yesterday, with highs in the 80s under generally sunny skies. There's a bit more wildfire smoke in the air than on Saturday ,but it shouldn't be thick enough to be hard on our lungs or dim the sun much. 

It looks like rain chances will slowly increase between tomorrow and Tuesday. But the showers and thunderstorms will be slow to work into Vermont. And there are big questions as to whether we will have a lot of rain or practically nothing. 

Even though the bulk of the rain will come between Tuesday and Thursday, we still don't know the outcome. We will have one of these three options: 

1. At least parts of the state get cheated, and needed rain doesn't materialize to any great extent So far,  this looks like the least likely scenario

2..Repeated showers and thunderstorms, and possibly a period or two of just steady rain comes through over the course of three days. But the downpours are not too excessive. So we get a nice soaker, but no threat of flooding. This is exactly what we want, and the forecast is leaning slightly toward this scenario. 

3. Too much of a good thing. The downpours linger and become frequent and heavy. There's so much rain that we end up with flooding problems. At this point, if this scenario does happen, it looks like southern Vermont has the highest rise. 

Here's how forecasts think things will happen, including the questions. 

MONDAY

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms might develop during the afternoon.  They're most likely to focus on the Adirondacks. Over here in Vermont, most of us won't see any rain. Perhaps 20 to 30 percent of us will see some at least some rain. It will stay very warm, with highs probably well into the 80s. It'll be slightly more humid than today, but not insanely oppressive.

TUESDAY

Here's where the question marks in the forecast really start. Tuesday through Thursday, it will depend on whether an upper level area of low pressure forms and nearly stalls. And exactly where it happens. 

For Tuesday, it looks like it will be more humid, with a greater chance of showers and storms than on Monday. If the weather system comes in as just a disturbance, we'll have a fair number of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, but nothing incredible.

 If a an upper level low pressure system forms, the rain will be more widespread and the downpours heavier.  That could lead to isolated instances of relatively minor flash flooding. 

For now, Vermont, and most of New England for that matter, is under a marginal, level one out of four level risk of isolated flash floods. 

WEDNESDAY

This is the big question mark day. It'll pretty much definitely rain, at least somewhere in Vermont. The question is, will that upper level storm form, and if so, where will it meander?

If the upper level low does form and stall, somebody under or near it or could receive some flooding rain. Some weather models don't predict this storm to form. Others say it will, but it will happen south and east of Vermont, so no real trouble for us. A few other models have this thing over or near Vermont, opening the door for potentially torrential rains. 

I'm not sure which scenario will unfold. In fact, nobody is sure. So we'll have to wait and see.

For now, southern and central New England, including southern Vermont, is under a slight risk, level two out of four level risk of flash flooding. It's unusual to have that level risk three days in advance, so we'll have to watch this. 

I'm not raising flood alarms yet, but we'll have to watch this.

THURSDAY

Still some lingering showers, but whatever weather system will be harassing us will be starting to move out.  

As always, we'll see how this develops.  It is one of those situations in which we won't know how this will play out until we get much closer to the event. 

After Yesterday's Weird Storm, A Brief Delightful Vermont Day Today. Smoke, Rain To Return

Yesterday's cold front packed some surprisingly 
strong winds. This tree in Georgia, Vermont
fell victims to those winds. Fallen trees and 
damaged power lines were reported across
much of the state. 

That was one weird storm in Vermont yesterday. 

On radar, it didn't look like much: Just a band of light to moderate showers. It was weird to see a severe thunderstorm warning ahead of what appeared to be a patch of light rain in the Champlain Valley. 

But the cold front had in incredible gust front.  Trees fell down in a wide area of northern and central Vermont. 

One tree blocked all lanes of Route 7 in Colchester near Poor Farm Road. Other trees fell in Georgia, Milton, Hyde Park and other towns. Winds gusted to 47 mph in Burlington. 

It was another surprisingly strong storm in a stormy summer. We might have more on the way Saturday. I'll get into that in a bit, but first, a calm interlude

TODAY

Today will be gorgeous. And placid.  The good new for us is that gusty cold front removed most of the smoke from Vermont. For now, anyway.   That left was a calm, comfortable sleeping night, and a pleasant, sunny day, with low humidity. 

It should get to 80 degrees in the warmer spots this afternoon.  That would make this the 21st day in a row in which it got to at least 80 degrees in Burlington. Today would make it the fourth longest stretch of consecutive 80 degree days on record,

The record for most consecutive 80 degree days is 29 days in 2018. I doubt we will break that record as we have some sub-80 degree days coming up. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

Meanwhile, the weather goes downhill from here.

TOMORROW

That smoke that got suppressed to our south by yesterday's cold front looks like it wants to come back   at us tomorrow as south winds take over. I'm not sure whether it will be enough to trigger new air quality alerts, but I imagine it will be at least noticeable. 

On top of that - here we go again - an unusually strong storm is going to go by to our north tomorrow and tomorrow night.  It'll be one of several oddly intense storms this summer. Not sure, but I think the onset of the strong El Nino now underway is helping to produce these vigorous systems. 

A strong storm like the one forecast for tomorrow might remind you of that day in June, when a similarly powerful storm helped set off two tornadoes in Vermont.

I wouldn't count on tornadoes this time, as if anybody wants something like that to happen again. 

There are some differences between the June storm and what we're going to see Saturday and Saturday night. The storm in June had a cold front with a sharp change in wind direction. It also had sharp changes in wind direction and wind speed  aloft. That's a recipe for tornadoes 

This storm doesn't look like it will  have such a big change in wind direction. Which reduces the chances of tornadoes. 

It also looks like we'll be dealing with wildfire smoke. As we saw earlier this week, smoke can reduce the intensity or number of thunderstorms. We think, anyway. 

That's not to say we won't have any strong storms. For now, anyway, most of Vermont is in a marginal risk (level one out of five alert) for severe thunderstorms. Southwest Vermont is at level two out of five.  Forecasting storminess like this even one day in advance can be tricky. The risk level for Vermont storms could rise or fall by the time we get tomorrow, so stay tuned.  

It does seen like there could be a relatively decent amount of rain with this. Current forecasts have us receiving a half to three quarters of an inch of rain, give or take. With thunderstorms around, actual amounts will be pretty variable. A couple places might get well over an inch of rain. A couple places might largely miss on the rain. 

Some parts of Vermont could use the rain. Here in St. Albans, those big thunderstorms this month have pretty much missed our area. We picked up a whopping 0.07 inches of rain yesterday, so that didn't really help. 

Overall, with the smoke, the showers, the risk of storms, the rising humidity and gusty non-thunderstorms winds, this won't be the glorious weather Saturday a lot of people would hope for.  On the bright side, it won't rain all day, and it feels like most of the rain will come later in the day.

SUNDAY

If you want a decent weather day this weekend, you'll want to wait until Sunday. That storm will blow by, sweep its cold front through, and leave us with dry, cool weather. Hopefully, it will also blow the smoke away. Temperatures will probably fall short of 80 degrees in Burlington, breaking the streak of 80 degree weather. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It looks like we have a fairly active weather pattern ahead. I don't see any signs of temperature extremes, neither too hot nor particularly chilly for this time of year.  Another fairly vigorous storm for this time of year looks like it might swing through Tuesday or Wednesday with the potential for locally heavy rain and thunderstorms, 

It's way too soon to get into specifics, so we'll put that on the back burner for now.