Vermont Weather To Bounce Around, Cool To Muggy To Warm To Cool; Some Needed Rain Thrown In

After a little welcome morning rain in St. Albans, skies
at least partly cleared in the afternoon. We ended up
with a pleasant afternoon with a  pretty skies. 

As expected, the rain in northern Vermont faded quickly as it headed south, amounting to nothing south of Route 2.  

Right near the Canadian border, the rain was pretty decent - at or above a quarter inch. Derby Line had a half inch, Swanton just a smidge under a third of an inch. 

Here in St. Albans had 0.21 inches, and that reduced to 0.02 for a total in Burlington. Nothing in places like Montpelier and Rutland. 

After the morning clouds and cool air, it turned into a nice afternoon, especially in northern Vermont. 

The changes keep coming. 

This morning, temperatures in North Country, ranging from frost in northern Maine to muggy low 70s in western New York. In Vermont, 5 a.m. temperatures ranged from 43 in Lyndonville and 63 in Rutland. 

Since weather usually comes from the west, you know what's going to happen. The muggy air will win out. At least briefly. 

Here's what happens next:

TODAY

The clouds will increase, and south winds will increase and the humidity will increase. By this evening, the air will definitely have a muggy feel.

Rain will move in from the west. There could be some very light showers at any time today, but the rain will begin in earnest mid to late afternoon, spreading west to east. Before the rain gets here, we should get into the low and mid 70s, with sone upper 60s northeast.

It'll be a fairly steady light to at times to moderate rain at times, then tonight it will turn into a showery type thing, typical of what you'd expect in humid air. There could be some brief downpours and a rumble or two of thunder overnight. 

It'll be a somewhat sticky, uncomfortable night for sleeping, too. One of the last of this year. Maybe even the last, if we're lucky. 

If we get lucky, current forecasts will pan out and we'll get a needed wetting. Total rainfall looks to be around a half inch to an inch in central and northern Vermont. Maybe a little less than that in the immediate Champlain Valley, maybe a little more than that in the Green Mountains. The lower Connecticut River Valley, from around Springfield south, might only get 0.1 to 0.25 inches. 

As always with this type of event, there will be some local surprises with some spots getting more than forecast, and some places getting a little less. Luck of the draw, you understand. 

THURSDAY

Another changeable day. Abrupt, breezy changes are another sign of fall, even though tomorrow will not at all feel like autumn. 

Once we get into the fall, storm systems get stronger. Which means winds get stronger, temperature and humidity trends get stronger. And they happen over shorter periods of time. 

We start the day with the overnight rain gone already. It'll be a humid morning, and if you're exercising out in the early morning sun, you really will sweat it through. 

But winds will pick up from the west and eventually northwest. You'll feel the humidity gradually fade away during the day. By mid to late afternoon, it should actually start to feel refreshing amid those gusty breezes.

It will be warm, though. We'll get into the 70s, with a couple 80s poking out in the lower Connecticut Valley and maybe the Champlain Valley. All under at least partly sunny skies. 

FRIDAY

Back to traditional September, for a little while anyway. A cool, possibly foggy early morning will yield a generally sunny, cool afternoon. Temperatures should peak within a few degrees either side of 70 degrees. 

SATURDAY

Another nice one. It'll start chilly, with lows in the 40s. The usual September dense fog will shroud the river valleys. Sunshine will boost temperatures well into the 70s. 

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

Changeable, but it's a little hard to give a firm forecast this far in advance. It looks like Sunday could start to turn more humid. Perhaps after a break on Monday, the humidity could briefly return Tuesday. There's chances of showers amidst all this, but we don't know how much rain that might involve. 

Mostly Quiet Vermont Week Continues, Possible Storms Northwest This Afternoon; Weekend Rain Questions

I had a dream last night that Vermont was raked by
extreme tornadoes, like the one pictured, along
with extreme floods and August snow. Happily
for all of us, we're in the midst of a relatively
uneventful weather week. Though there could
be a few storms north late today. 

 The fog was a little slow to clear in some areas of Vermont yesterday, but it did clear, leading to a partly cloudy, seasonable day. Hope you enjoyed it!

Since we don't have much weather excitement, I have to tell you about one of my strange dreams last night. (I have vivid, weird dreams on a nightly basis).

In the dream, El Nino triggered a massive, unprecedented late August storm in the Northeast. 

Everybody in New England, including here in Vermont,  was told to expect a swarm of powerful EF-5 tornadoes, followed by hurricane force winds, rains that would cause epic floods followed by several inches of August snow. 

I'm extremely happy to report that I guarantee we won't see anything dramatic like that this week. Or any week. Sure, climate change and El Nino are making weather more extreme, but nothing like that!

Instead, were happily stuck with a week of fairly nice, mostly uneventful
weather, but with a few hiccups here and there. 

The first hiccup is today.

REST OF TODAY

We are still expecting that dying cold front to make its way toward us this afternoon, from the northwest. 

I'm a little gun shy now when I bring up a chance of thunderstorms. After last week, when it seemed any little thunderstorm would blow up into something severe, I don't want to relax too much about the chances of high winds or other problems with any thunderstorms. 

That said, the deck is stacked against severe weather. As this morning's National Weather Service forecast discussion points out, there is some wind aloft that thunderstorms could potentially use to create gusty winds down here where we live. But a lack of instability, dry air aloft and some showers in Quebec this morning will all work against any storms taking advantage of those winds aloft. 

To quote the National Weather Service/South Burlington office: "Strong to severe storms are not likely today, but cannot be completely ruled out."

Sigh.

If any storms happen, they're most likely in northern New York and the far northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. Even those late afternoon and evening showers and storms will be hit and miss, so not everybody in this zone will get wet.

The further south you go, the less chance of rain. Everybody, or almost everybody in southern Vermont gets nothing. Overall, it'll be a typical August day, with highs near 80 degrees with moderate humidity.

THURSDAY

There might be some clouds around in the afternoon, but overall it'll be a nice day, as highs get well into the 70s. There could be a sprinkle over the northern mountains and Northeast Kingdom, but it won't be nearly enough to ruin this cool-ish August day.

FRIDAY

We'll be off to a cool start with patchy early morning fog.  Most places will be in the low 50s as dawn breaks, with the chillier valleys in the upper 40s. The fog will burn off to reveal the pick of the weather week, Highs will reach the 70s to near 80 under sunny skies and low humidity.

SATURDAY

Another nice one, as it looks now. Sunshine, with maybe some afternoon clouds It'll be up near 80 degrees.

SUNDAY

The next weather system arrives. It looks like the day might be showery, especially later on. But the amount and location of the rain, along with the timing of it, are still in the iffy stage. However, this doesn't look like a serious, scary storm at this point